Chapter 25 Real Options: True/False

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Chapter25:RealOptions
True/False
Page1
CHAPTER25
REALOPTIONS
PleaseseetheprefaceforinformationontheAACSB
letterindicators(F,M,
etc.)onthesubjectlines.
True/False
Easy:
(25.1)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:aEASY
1.
Realoptionsexistwhenmanagershavetheopportunity,
afteraproject
hasbeenimplemented,tomakeoperatingchangesin
responsetochanged
conditionsthatmodifytheprojectscashflows.
a.True
b.False
(25.1)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:bEASY
2.
Realoptionsareoptionstobuyrealassets,likestocks,
ratherthan
interestbearingassets,likebonds.
a.True
b.False
(25.1)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:aEASY
3.
Theoptiontoabandonaprojectisarealoption,buta
calloptionon
astockisnotarealoption.
a.True
b.False
(25.2)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:bEASY
4.
Realoptionsaremostvaluablewhentheunderlyingsource
ofriskis
verylow.
a.True
b.False
(25.2)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:bEASY
5.
Realoptionsaffectthesize,butnottherisk,ofa
projectsexpected
cashflows.
a.True
b.False
Page 2
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Page2
True/False
Chapter7:PortfolioTheory
Page 3
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ConceptualQuestions
Page3
MultipleChoice:Conceptual
Easy:
(25.2)Investmenttimingoption
CQ
Answer:eEASY
6.
CommodoreCorporationisdecidingwhethertoinvestina
projecttoday
ortopostponethedecisionuntilnextyear.Theproject
hasapositive
expectedNPV,butitscashflowscouldbelessthan
expected,inwhich
casetheNPVcouldbenegative.Nocompetitorsarelikely
toinvestin
asimilarprojectifCommodoredecidestowait.Whichof
thefollowing
statementsbestdescribestheissuesthatCommodorefaces
when
consideringthisinvestmenttimingoption?
a.Theinvestmenttimingoptiondoesnotaffectthecash
flowsandwill
thereforehavenoimpactontheprojectsrisk.
b.Themoreuncertaintyaboutthefuturecashflows,the
morelogical
itisforCommodoretogoaheadwiththisprojecttoday.
c.SincetheprojecthasapositiveexpectedNPVtoday,
thismeansthat
itsexpectedNPVwillbeevenhigherifitchoosesto
waitayear.
d.SincetheprojecthasapositiveexpectedNPVtoday,
thismeansthat
itshouldbeacceptedinordertolockinthatNPV.
e.Waitingwouldprobablyreducetheprojectsrisk.
(Comp:25.125.4)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:cEASY
7.
Whichoneofthefollowingisanexampleofa
flexibilityoption?
a.Acompanyhasanoptiontoinvestinaprojecttoday
ortowaita
year.
b.Acompanyhasanoptiontoclosedownanoperationif
itturnsout
tobeunprofitable.
c.Acompanyagreestopaymoretobuildaplantinorder
tobeableto
changetheplantsinputsand/oroutputsatalaterdate
if
conditionschange.
d.Acompanyinvestsinaprojecttodaytogainknowledge
thatmay
enableittoexpandintodifferentmarketsatalater
date.
e.AcompanyinvestsinajetaircraftsothatitsCEO,
whomusttravel
frequently,canarrivefordistantmeetingsfeelingless
tiredthan
ifhehadtoflycommercial.
Medium:
(25.1)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:bMEDIUM
8.
WhichofthefollowingisNOTarealoption?
a.Theoptiontoexpandproductioniftheproductis
successful.
b.Theoptiontobuysharesofstockifitspricegoes
up.
c.Theoptiontoexpandintoanewgeographicregion.
d.Theoptiontoabandonaproject.
e.Theoptiontoswitchthetypeoffuelusedinan
industrialfurnace.
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Page4
ConceptualQuestions
(25.2)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:dMEDIUM
9.
WhichofthefollowingwillNOTincreasethevalueofa
realoption?
a.Lengtheningthetimeinwhicharealoptionmustbe
exercised.
b.Anincreaseinthevolatilityoftheunderlyingsource
ofrisk.
c.Anincreaseintheriskfreerate.
d.Anincreaseinthecostofobtainingtherealoption.
e.Adecreaseintheprobabilitythatacompetitorwill
enterthe
marketoftheprojectinquestion.
(25.2)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:cMEDIUM
10.WhichofthefollowingismostCORRECT?
a.Realoptionschangethesize,butnottherisk,of
projects
expectedcashflows.
b.Realoptionschangetherisk,butnotthesize,of
projects
expectedcashflows.
c.Realoptionsarelikelytoreducethecostofcapital
thatshouldbe
usedtodiscountaprojectsexpectedcashflows.
d.Veryfewprojectsactuallyhaverealoptions.
e.Realoptionsarelessvaluablewhenthereisalotof
uncertainty
aboutthetruevaluesfuturesalesandcosts.
(25.4)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:aMEDIUM
11.LighthouseCorporationusestheNPVmethodfor
selectingprojects,and
itdoesareasonablygoodjobofestimatingprojects
salesandcosts.
However,itneverconsidersrealoptionsthatmightbe
associatedwith
projects.Whichofthefollowingstatementsismost
likelytodescribe
itssituation?
a.Itsestimatedcapitalbudgetisprobablytoosmall,
because
projectsNPVsareoftenlargerwhenrealoptionsare
takeninto
account.
b.Itsestimatedcapitalbudgetisprobablytoolargedue
toits
failuretoconsiderabandonmentandgrowthoptions.
c.Failingtoconsiderabandonmentandflexibility
optionsprobably
makestheoptimalcapitalbudgettoolarge,butfailing
toconsider
growthandtimingoptionsprobablymakestheoptimal
capitalbudget
toosmall,soitisunclearwhatimpactnotconsidering
realoptions
hasontheoverallcapitalbudget.
d.Failingtoconsiderabandonmentandflexibility
optionsprobably
makestheoptimalcapitalbudgettoosmall,butfailing
toconsider
growthandtimingoptionsprobablymakestheoptimal
capitalbudget
toolarge,soitisunclearwhatimpactnotconsidering
realoptions
hasontheoverallcapitalbudget.
e.Realoptionsshouldnothaveanyeffectonthesizeof
theoptimal
capitalbudget.
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Problems
Page5
MultipleChoice:Problems
Medium:
(Problems12and13mustbekepttogether.Use13onlyif
12isalsoused.)
(25.3)Decisiontree:expectedNPV
CQ
Answer:dMEDIUM
12.TexasWildcattersInc.(TWI)isinthebusinessof
findingand
developingoilproperties,andthensellingthe
successfulonesto
majoroilrefiningcompanies.TWIisnowconsideringa
newpotential
field,anditsgeologistshavedevelopedthefollowing
data,in
thousandsofdollars.
t=0.A$400feasibilitystudywouldbeconductedatt=
0.Theresults
ofthisstudywoulddetermineifthecompanyshould
commencedrilling
operationsormakenofurtherinvestmentandabandonthe
project.
t=1.Ifthefeasibilitystudyindicatesgoodpotential,
thefirm
wouldspend$1,000att=1todrillexploratorywells.
Thebest
estimateisthatthereisan80%probabilitythatthe
exploratorywells
wouldindicategoodpotentialandthusthatfurtherwork
wouldbedone,
anda20%probabilitythattheoutlookwouldlookbadand
theproject
wouldbeabandoned.
t=2.Iftheexploratorywellstestpositive,TWIwould
goaheadand
spend$10,000toobtainanaccurateestimateofthe
amountofoilin
thefieldatt=2.Thebestestimatenowisthatthere
isa60%
probabilitythattheresultswouldbeverygoodanda40%
probability
thatresultswouldbepoorandthefieldwouldbe
abandoned.
t=3.Ifthefulldrillingprogramiscarriedout,there
isa50%
probabilityoffindingalotofoilandreceivinga
$25,000cashinflow
att=3,anda50%probabilityoffindinglessoiland
thenonly
receivinga$10,000inflow.
Sincetheprojectisconsideredtobequiterisky,a20%
costofcapital
isused.Whatistheproject'sexpectedNPV,inthousands
ofdollars?
a.$336.15
b.$373.50
c.$415.00
d.$461.11
e.$507.22
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Problems
(25.3)Decisiontree:SDandCV
CQ
Answer:cMEDIUM
13.Inthepreviousproblemyouwereaskedtofindthe
expectedNPVofa
projectTWIisconsidering.Usethesamedatato
calculatethe
project'scoefficientofvariation.(Hint:Usethe
expectedNPVas
foundinProblem12.)
a.5.87
b.6.52
c.7.25
d.7.97
e.8.77
(Problems14and15mustbekepttogether.Use15onlyif
14isalsoused.)
(25.3)Investmenttimingoption,decisiontreesCQ
Answer:dMEDIUM
14.NebraskaPharmaceuticalsCompany(NPC)isconsidering
aprojectthat
hasanupfrontcostatt=0of$1,500.(Alldollarsin
thisproblem
areinthousands.)Theprojectssubsequentcashflows
arecritically
dependentonwhetheracompetitorsproductisapproved
bytheFoodand
DrugAdministration.IftheFDArejectsthecompetitive
product,NPCs
productwillhavehighsalesandcashflows,butifthe
competitive
productisapproved,thatwillnegativelyimpactNPC.
Thereisa75%
chancethatthecompetitiveproductwillberejected,in
whichcase
NPCsexpectedcashflowswillbe$500attheendofeach
ofthenext
sevenyears(t=1to7).Thereisa25%chancethatthe
competitors
productwillbeapproved,inwhichcasetheexpectedcash
flowswillbe
only$25attheendofeachofthenextsevenyears(t=
1to7).NPC
willknowforsureoneyearfromtodaywhetherthe
competitorsproduct
hasbeenapproved.
NPCisconsideringwhethertomaketheinvestmenttoday
ortowaita
yeartofindoutabouttheFDAsdecision.Ifitwaitsa
year,the
projectsupfrontcostatt=1willremainat$1,500,
thesubsequent
cashflowswillremainat$500peryearifthe
competitorsproductis
rejectedand$25peryearifthealternativeproductis
approved.
However,ifNPCdecidestowait,thesubsequentcash
flowswillbe
receivedonlyforsixyears(t=2...7).
Assumingthatallcashflowsarediscountedat10%,if
NPCchoosesto
waitayearbeforeproceeding,howmuchwillthis
increaseordecrease
theprojectsexpectedNPVintodaysdollars(i.e.,att
=0),
relativetotheNPVifitproceedstoday?
a.$77.23
b.$85.81
c.$95.34
d.$105.94
e.$116.53
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Problems
Page7
(25.3)Timingoption,effectofdelayonCVCQ
Answer:aMEDIUM
15.Inthepreviousproblemyoufoundthebenefitfrom
delayingan
investmentdecision.Nowusethesamedatatocalculate
theeffectof
waitingontheproject'srisk.Byhowmuchwilldelaying
reducethe
project'scoefficientofvariation?(Hint:Usethe
expectedNPVas
foundinProblem14.)
a.2.23
b.2.46
c.2.70
d.2.97
e.3.27
Multipart:
(ThefollowingdataapplytoProblems16and17.The
problemsMUSTbekept
together.)
Diplomat.comisconsideringaprojectthathasanup
frontcostof$3million
andisexpectedtoproduceacashflowof$500,000atthe
endofeachofthe
next5years.Theprojectscostofcapitalis10%.
(25.3)ProjectNPVnonalgorithmic
CQ
Answer:bEASY
16.Basedontheabovedata,whatistheprojectsnet
presentvalue?
a.$1,312,456
b.$1,104,607
c.$875,203
d.$105,999
e.$321,788
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Page8
Problems
(25.3)Growthoptionnonalgorithmic
CQ
Answer:cMEDIUM
17.IfDiplomatgoesaheadwiththisprojecttoday,it
willobtain
knowledgethatwillgiverisetoadditionalopportunities
5yearsfrom
now(att=5).Thecompanycandecideatt=5whether
ornotit
wantstopursuetheseadditionalopportunities.Basedon
thebest
informationavailabletoday,thereisa35%probability
thatthe
outlookwillbefavorable,inwhichcasethefuture
investment
opportunitywillhaveanetpresentvalueof$6million
att=5.
Thereisa65%probabilitythattheoutlookwillbe
unfavorable,in
whichcasethefutureinvestmentopportunitywillhavea
netpresent
valueof$6millionatt=5.Diplomat.comdoesnothave
todecide
todaywhetheritwantstopursuetheadditional
opportunity.Instead,
itcanwaittoseewhattheoutlookis.However,the
companycannot
pursuethefutureopportunityunlessitmakesthe$3
millioninvestment
today.Whatistheestimatednetpresentvalueofthe
project,after
considerationofthepotentialfutureopportunity?
a.$1,104,607
b.$875,203
c.$199,328
d.$561,947
e.$898,205
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Problems
Page9
(ThefollowingdataapplytoProblems18and19.The
problemsMUSTbekept
together.)
OklahomaInstruments(OI)isconsideringaprojectcalled
F200thathasan
upfrontcostof$250,000.Theprojectssubsequentcash
flowsare
criticallydependentonwhetheranotherofitsproducts,
F100,becomesan
industrystandard.Thereisa50%chancethattheF100
willbecomethe
industrystandard,inwhichcasetheF200sexpected
cashflowswillbe
$110,000attheendofeachofthenext5years.Thereis
a50%chancethat
theF100willnotbecometheindustrystandard,inwhich
casetheF200s
expectedcashflowswillbe$25,000attheendofeachof
thenext5years.
Assumethatthecostofcapitalis12%.
Page 10
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Page10
Problems
(25.3)ProjectNPVnonalgorithmic
CQ
Answer:aEASY
18.Basedontheaboveinformation,whatistheF200s
expectednet
presentvalue?
a.$6,678
b.$3,251
c.$15,303
d.$20,004
e.$45,965
(25.3)AbandonmentoptionnonalgorithmicCQ
Answer:eMEDIUM
19.NowassumethatoneyearfromnowOIwillknowifthe
F100hasbecome
theindustrystandard.Alsoassumethatafterreceiving
thecashflows
att=1,OIhastheoptiontoabandontheproject,in
whichcaseitwill
receiveanadditional$100,000att=1butnocashflows
aftert=1.
Assumingthatthecostofcapitalremainsat12%,whatis
theestimated
valueoftheabandonmentoption?
a.$0
b.$2,075
c.$4,067
d.$8,945
e.$10,745
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Answers
Page11
CHAPTER25
ANSWERSANDSOLUTIONS
1.
(25.1)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:aEASY
2.
(25.1)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:bEASY
3.
(25.1)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:aEASY
4.
(25.2)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:bEASY
5.
(25.2)Realoptions
FQ
Answer:bEASY
6.
(25.2)InvestmenttimingoptionCQ
Answer:eEASY
Byhavingtheabilitytowaitandseeyoureducetheriskoftheproject.Therefore,
statementaisfalse.The
greatertheuncertainty,themorevaluethereisinwaitingforadditionalinformation
beforegoingonwitha
project.Therefore,statementbisfalse.Statementscanddarenotnecessarilytrue.By
waitingtodoa
projectyoumaylosestrategicadvantagesassociatedwithbeingthefirstcompetitorto
enteranewlineof
business,whichmayalterthecashflows.Sincestatementsa,b,c,anddarefalse,the
correctchoiceis
statemente.
7.
(Comp:25.125.4)RealoptionsCQ
Answer:cEASY
Statementsa,b,c,anddareallexamplesofdifferenttypesofrealoptions.A
flexibilityoptionpermitsthe
firmtoalteroperationsdependingonhowconditionschangeduringthelifeofthe
project.Typically,either
inputsoroutputs,orboth,canbechanged.Statementaisanexampleofaninvestment
timingoption,
whilestatementbisanexampleofanabandonmentoption.Statementcisanexample
ofaflexibility
option,statementdisanexampleofagrowthoption,andstatementeisnotreallya
realoptionatall.
Therefore,statementcisthecorrectchoice.
8.
(25.1)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:bMEDIUM
9.
(25.2)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:dMEDIUM
10.(25.2)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:cMEDIUM
11.
(25.4)Realoptions
CQ
Answer:aMEDIUM
Byfailingtoconsiderrealoptions,thefirmscapitalbudgetwouldprobablybetoo
small.Thefirmmight
wellrejectprojectsthatwouldbeseentohavepositiveexpectedNPVsifrealoptions
hadbeenconsidered.
Therefore,thecorrectchoiceisstatementa.
Page 12
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Page12
Answers
12.(25.3)Decisiontree:expectedNPVCQ
Answer:dMEDIUM
Costofcapital:20%
Investthis
Investthis
Investthis
CFthis
period:
period:
period:
period:
Possible
Joint
0
1
2
3
NPVs*Prob.**Product
50%$25,000
6,289.81
24%$1,509.56
60%$10,000
80%$1,000
50%$10,000
2,390.74
24%
$573.78
$400
40%
$0
1,233.33
32%
$394.67
20%
$0
400.00
20%
$80.00
ExpectedNPV=$461.11
*Herearethecashflowsofthefourpotentialoutcomes.Findthepotentialoutcomes'NPVs
asthePVsof
thesecashflows,discountedatthe20%costofcapital:
0
1
2
3
NPV
NPV1=
$400
$1,000
$10,000
$25,000$6,289.81
NPV2=
$400
$1,000
$10,000
$10,000$2,390.74
NPV3=
$400
$1,000
$0
$0$1,233.33
NPV4=
$400
$0
$0
$0$400.00
**Jointprobabilities:Probs1and2=0.80.60.5=0.24;Prob3=0.80.4=0.32;Prob
4=0.2.
13.(25.3)Decisiontree:SDandCV
CQ
Answer:cMEDIUM
TheCV=SD/ExpectedNPV.StudentscanusetheExpectedNPVasfoundin
Problem12.
Squareddev.
Prob.
NPV
NPViE(NPV)
Squareddeviation
timesprobability
0.24
$6,289.81
$5,829
$33,973,787
$8,153,709
0.24
$2,390.74
$2,852
$8,133,059
$1,951,934
0.32
$1,233.33
$1,694
$2,871,142
$918,765
0.20
$400.00
$861
$741,512
$148,302
1.00
$461.11
Variance$11,172,711
Standarddeviation
$3,342.56
CV
7.25
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Answers
Page13
14.(25.3)Investmenttimingoption,decisiontreesCQ
Answer:dMEDIUM
Costofcapital:10%
Investimmediately:
Product:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NPV*
NPVProb
75%Good$500$500$500$500$500$500$500$934.21$700.66
$1,500
25%Bad
$25
$25
$25
$25
$25
$25
$25$1,378.29$344.57
ExpectedNPVifGoNow:$356.08
Delay,theninvestinperiod1iftheoutlookisgood:
Product:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NPV*
NPVProb
75%Good
$500$500$500$500$500$500$616.03$462.02
$1,500
25%Bad
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0.00$0.00
ExpectedNPVifWait:$462.02
IncreaseinexpectedNPVfromwaiting:NPVWaitNPVGoNow=$105.94
*TheNPVunderthedelayoptionoccursoneyearlater,soitmustbediscountedbacktot=0
atthecost
ofcapitaltomaketheNPVscomparable.Thefigureshowninthedelaytreeisafter
discounting.
Page 14
duplicated,orposted
Page14
Answers
15.(25.3)Timingoption,effectofdelayonCVCQ
Answer:aMEDIUM
TheCV=SD/ExpectedNPV.StudentscanusetheExpectedNPVasfoundin
Problem14.
Investimmediately:
Squareddev.
Prob.
NPV
NPViE(NPV)
Squareddeviation
timesprobability
0.75
$934.21
$578
$334,228
$250,671
0.25
$1,378.29
$1,734
$3,008,054
$752,013
1.00
$356.08
Variance
$1,002,685
Standarddeviation
$1,001.34
CV
2.81
Delay,theninvestinperiod1iftheoutlookisgood:
Squareddev.
Prob.
NPV
NPViE(NPV)
Squareddeviation
timesprobability
0.75
$616.03
$154
$23,718
$17,789
0.25
$0.00
$462
$213,463
$53,366
1.00
$462.02
Variance
$71,154
Standarddeviation
$266.75
CV
0.58
ReductionintheCVduetowaiting
2.23
Notethattheproblemimplicitlyassumesthattheprojectisrisklessifitisdelayed.
Thisis,ofcourse,
unrealistic.NotealsothatalowercostofcapitalshouldbeusedtofindtheNPVofthe
GoNowdecision
thantheWaitdecision.Theappropriatecostofcapitalisoftenloweredbythe
existenceofrealoptions.
16.(25.3)ProjectNPVnonalgorithmic
CQ
Answer:bEASY
FindtheprojectsNPVusingafinancialcalculatorandenteringthefollowingdata
inputs:
CF0=3,000,000;CF15=500,000;I/YR=10;andthensolveforNPV=$1,104,607.
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Answers
Page15
17.(25.3)Growthoption
CQ
Answer:cMEDIUM
0
1
2
3
4
5
|
|
|
|
|
|
3,000,000500,000
500,000
500,000
500,000
500,000
NPV=1,104,607
+1,303,935
NPV=+6,000,000(35%)
$199,328
NPV=6,000,000(65%)
r=10%
Step1:FindtheNPVatt=0ofthefirstproject:
Enterthefollowingdatainputsinthefinancialcalculator:
CF0=3,000,000;CF15=500,000;I/YR=10;andthensolveforNPV=$1,104,607.
Step2:FindtheNPVatt=0ofthenewprojects:
Ifatt=5thefirmstechnologyisnotsuccessful,thefirmwillchoosenottodothe
additional
projects(sincetheirNPVis$6,000,000).Therefore,theNPVatt=5iscalculatedas
0.35($6,000,000)+0.65($0)=$2,100,000.
However,thisistheNPVatt=5,soweneedtodiscountthisNPVtofindtheNPVof
the
additionalprojectstoday.Enterthefollowingdatainputsinthefinancialcalculator:
N=5;I/YR=10;PMT=0;FV=2,100,000;andthensolveforPV=$1,303,935.
Step3:FindtheNPVoftheentireprojectconsideringitsfutureopportunities:
$1,104,607+$1,303,935=$199,328.
18.(25.3)ProjectNPVnonalgorithmic
CQ
Answer:aEASY
Step1:FindtheprojectsexpectedcashflowsinYears1through5:(0.5)($110,000)+
(0.5)($25,000)=
$67,500.
Step2:FindtheprojectsNPVbyenteringthefollowingdatainputsinthefinancial
calculator:
CF0=250,000;CF15=67,500;I/YR=12;andthensolveforNPV=$6,678.
Page 16
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Page16
Answers
19.(25.3)AbandonmentoptionnonalgorithmicCQ
Answer:eMEDIUM
Noabandonment:
Yr.0
Prob
1
2
3
4
5
Prob
NPV
NPV
|
|
|
|
|
110,000110,000110,000110,000110,000
0.5
$146,525$73,263
250,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
25,000
0.5
159,88179,941
E(NPV)=$6,678
0.5
0.5
Abandonment:
Yr.0
Prob
1
2
3
4
5
Prob
NPV
NPV
|
|
|
|
|
110,000110,000110,000110,000110,000
0.5
$146,525$73,263
250,000
125,000
0.5
138,39369,196
E(NPV)=$4,067
ValueofAbandonment=
$4,067($6,678)=$10,745
0.5
0.5

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