Math 1020Q

Grant Eagleson
3 Doors Problem

SWITCH OR STAY

TREASURE DOOR

CONTESTANT DOOR

WIN OR LOSS

STAY

3 LOSS

STAY

3 WIN

SWITCH

1 LOSS

SWITCH

3 LOSS

STAY

2 WIN

SWITCH

1 WIN

STAY

2 WIN

SWITCH

3 WIN

STAY

3 LOSS

SWITCH

2 LOSS

STAY

1 WIN

SWITCH

2 WIN

STAY

1 LOSS

SWITCH

3 WIN

STAY

1 LOSS

SWITCH

3 WIN

STAY

1 LOSS

SWITCH

1 LOSS

STAY

2 LOSS

SWITCH

3 WIN

STAY

1 LOSS

SWITCH

2 WIN

STAY

3 WIN

SWITCH

3 LOSS

The correct strategy in the game is to switch from your original choice. It is not a foolproof
strategy, and you may still lose some rounds, but you have a higher probability of choosing the
door with the treasure. This is because at the beginning of the game, each door has an even
chance of being the winning door, meaning that if you choose door #1, it has a 1/3 chance of
treasure being behind it. This logically indicates that there is a 2/3 chance the the other doors
have treasure behind them. However, once the incorrect door is removed, the odds change.
Your original choice still has a 1/3 chance, but there is now a 2//3 chance that the remaining
door contains treasure. Although it is a strange concept to wrap ones head around, you should
switch doors, because your chances of success are doubled.