Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Strategic Insight
Sarwant Singh, Senior Partner & Practice Director
Shwetha Surender, Industry Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
4 February 2014
Todays Presenters
Sarwant Singh
Shwetha Surender
Senior Partner
Industry Analyst
Pete Kelly
Aziz Ucmakli
Managing Partner
LMC Automotive
1.
Highlights of 2014
2.
3.
4.
5.
Discussion
POLL QUESTION 1
85 million
B.
87 million
C.
90 million
D.
93 million
E.
95 million
2 Major OEMs (Toyota and Volkswagen) crossed the 10 million mark in 2014.
2014 set a new record for recalls. Over 600 million vehicles were recalled in the
US.
Clear strategy from non automotive players like Google, Apple and Alibaba in
the connectivity, retailing and autonomous driving space.
2014 witnessed the entry of volume OEMs into the mobility space with
comprehensive mobility offerings (eg.Ford), while existing premium OEMs
expanded their footprint.
2014 saw appointment of women leaders (CXOs) within the automotive industry
for instance, GM, Citroen etc. Women are also heavily influencing automotive
purchases, over 50% of license holders in North America are women.
Global automotive sales to hit 91.5 million. Sales to peak in 2015 as the average
age of the car rises in US and Europe.
Mercedes Benz could overtake Audi and achieve the No.2 position in the
premium vehicle market.
2015 will see the expansion in capacity in North America and the advent of
brand less factories.
Digital retailing of parts, service and sales of cars to accelerate. Online sales
launched by OEMs including BMW, Renault and Volvo to compete with Daimler
and Dacia.
Global policy makers to support legislation change and testing for putting
autonomous cars on roads.
New frontier for automotive growth to emerge Stan and Jan and Africa.
Source: Frost & Sullivan; Images and logos are only for illustration
2015 will
Multi material
Rise of
Connected
Health and
New industry
see the
light
alternative
car to
wellness to
business
evolution
weighting
fuel vehicles
evolve as a
be key in
models of
of new
will be a
(Hybrid, EV
part of
2015
collaboration
vehicle
game
and Fuel
connected
across the
segments
changer
Cell)
living
ecosystem
Source: Frost & Sullivan; Images and logos are only for illustration
POLL QUESTION 2
Which three trends in your opinion would have the
greatest impact on the market in 2015?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
Passenger Vehicle Production, Crude Oil Prices, World GDP, Global, 1970-2014
200%
60
150%
50
100%
40
50%
30
0%
20
Percentage Growth
70
250%
-50%
10
-100%
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year
~ 91.5 Million
2015
~ 86.9 Million
40
Western
Europe 15.6%
35
Units (Million)
Western Europe
15.6%
Indonesia 1.3
30
25
20
China 27
15
Asia 44.4%
Africa 0.8%
Rest of
L.America
1.1
Rest of
E.Europe 1.0
Poland 0.4
10
5
0
2014
Africa
Asia
US 17
Turkey 0.7
Russia 2.2
Egypt 0.2
Iran 1.0
Eastern
Europe
The Middle
East
North
America
Argentina
0.6
Rest of
W.Europe 3.0
Asia 44.8%
UK 2.8 Spain 1.1
Italy 1.7
France 2.2
Brazil 3.3
Germany 3.3
Latin America
Western
Europe
Africa 0.9%
2015
10
3.1%
Toyota Group
0.1%
Renault-Nissan Group
3.9%
1.0%
Hyundai Group
1.5%
Ford Group
7.9%
Honda Group
3.8%
1.8%
PSA Group
-2.9%
Suzuki Group
-1.8%
BMW Group
7.7%
Daimler Group
8.7%
Mazda Motors
18.1%
7.2%
SAIC Group
5.6%
2
2015
4
2014
10
12
Units (Million)
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2013. Sources: LMC Automotive, Frost & Sullivan.
11
Millions
2015 will be the litmus test that determines the success of the
new Trifecta proposition that merges three distinct segments
35
30
Sedan
25
Hatchback
Minivan
20
15
10
2014
2015
SUV
Tesla Model X
5
0
Source: Frost & Sullivan, LMC Automotive; Images and logos are only for illustration
12
Ultra Premium Brands Coming into the SUV segment launching in new segments to expand their customer base.
Maserati Levante
Bentley Bentayga
2015
2016
Lamborghini Urus
2017
2018
Bentley Falcon
Lamborghini Urus
VW Touareg.
Source: Frost & Sullivan; Images and logos are only for illustration
13
1.2%
4.9%
2.5%
0.7%
3.8%
6.1%
1.6%
2.6%
50.4
49.9
46.5
44.2
43.7
40.7
40.7
40.3
49.6
50.1
53.5
55.8
56.3
59.3
59.3
59.7
US
Canada
UK
Japan
Italy
Germany
Spain
Brazil
Country
Men Holding a Driving License (%)
14
118,742
Nissan
Leaf
Renault
Zoe
BMW i3
12,359 14,640
Mitsubishi
Outlander
Nissan Leaf
20,513
Tesla
Model S
1,276
China
18.8%
BMW i3
15,423
14,294
1,707
Mitsubishi
Outlander
1,603
4,948
Nissan
Leaf
1,388
1,400
57,173 Nissan
Kia Ray
Leaf
266
1,200
6,900
PHEV
30.9%
North
America
39.0%
Japan
13.9%
42,226
Kandi EV
Europe
26.1%
BEV
61.0%
NEV
1.2%
eREV
6.9%
Note : Numbers have been extrapolated for November and December; Source: Frost & Sullivan
15
2014
Hybrid: 21%
EV: 4%
Other: 7%
DK: 8%
2012
2010
13%
14%
32%
28%
Hybrid: 21%
EV: 5%
Other: 9%
DK: 9%
2014
2012
2%
2010
78%
71%
20%
24%
5%
40%
Other
43%
8%
Diesel
52%
55%
58%
Petrol
51%
6%
16
1 Multi-channel
retail
Stiff
2 competition in
online retail
Global
3 dealership
Increased
New digital
digitization
concepts
identity
Unified brand
experience
and
positioning
Informative and
experiential
customer retail
experience in a
small space
Source: Frost & Sullivan, k3retail; Images and logos are only for illustration
17
New Cars
Used Cars
Finance &
Insurance
Service
Parts
Online Stores
Warehouses
Online
Insurance
On-the-air
diagnostics
Emarketplace
Pop Up
Stores
Lifestyle
Stores
Rental &
Leasing
Service &
Maintenance
Mobility
Solutions
Flagship
Stores
Store in a
Store
Pay-as-you
drive
Heavy Repairs
Finance
Options
Choose/ Configure
Web Configurator
Price Comparison
Purchase
Service/ Aftersales
Purchase @online
Entry
1
Journey
Purchase
Digital / Virtual
Advisor/Conne
cted Vehicles
Product Genius
2
Financial Advisor
Retention
Online and Offline technologies to
converge on a single platform
Video
Conf.
E-parts
E-services
Source: Frost & Sullivan; Images and logos are only for illustration
19
2
360
Cybersecurity
Focus on
In-Vehicle
and Back
End
Security
3
OEM
Prognostics
OEMs
Harnessing
Vehicle Data
Continuously
Contextual
Services
Aftermarket
Telematics
Utilizing
Cloud &
Location
for
Multimodal
Services
Moving
beyond the
OBDII into
New
Business
Models
HMI
Beyond
Speech
Utilize HMI
Innovations
in the Age
of Vehicle
Automation
Smartphone
in Car 2.0
Smartphone
for Access
and
Automation
Source: Frost & Sullivan; Images and logos are only for illustration
20
Key Conclusions
Global sales are expected to grow by over 5 percent to reach 91.5 million
vehicles. The US market is expected to reach 17 million and China to cross 26
million in sales.
More than 50,000 cars are expected to be sold exclusively online which
includes Daimler, Renault, BMW i brand, Dacia, Ford.
Aftermarket solutions will reach beyond insurance into the service and
maintenance business.
OEM will take ownership of vehicle data from customers and move towards
monetization of big data
Source: Frost & Sullivan
21
22
GDP
2014 Global
Automotive
Share
2.6% 4
S. America
6%
US (NA)
19%
Mexico/
Canada (N.A.)
4%
Middle
East/Afr
6%
th
Qtr.
SEAsia
Europe
9%
21%
Greater China
27%
Japan/Korea
8%
23
Aging population
98.1
U.Mich. Consumer Confidence Index Jan 15
Declining un-employment
14 M
12 M
10 M
8M
6M
4M
14 SALES
16.5M
+5.9% Y/Y
Share
Luxury
Mainstream
2M
M
09CY
15 SALES (f)
10CY
11CY
12CY
~17.1M
13CY
14CY
+2.5% Y/Y
Sustaining market shifting from needs based recovery to wants driven market
25
14 Lox 12.1%
Share
14 MS 87.9%
PC
SUV/CUV
Pickups
Van
16 M
14 M
16.5M
17.1M (f)
7,750,819
7,689,305
7,567,566
PC
7,238,953
0.8% (f) 14
15 Y/Y PC
Growth
1.
2.
3.
4.
Technology (connectivity/
infotainment/ safety) is front
and center in the market.
6,096,028
12 M
5,640,604
US Unit Sales
10 M
5,405,630
5,667,375
8M
5,072,776
CUV/
SUV
4,515,079
4,162,851
6M
5,996,353
4.4% (f) 14
15 Y/Y
CUV/SUV
Growth
3,665,864
4M
3,042,715
1,816,865
1,939,632
2,173,661
1,631,396
575,727
650,919
702,195
798,252
786,196
845,154
911,921
09CY
10CY
11CY
12CY
13CY
14CY
15CY
2M
1,406,679
M
2,320,166
7.9% (f) 14 15
Y/Y Van Growth
How can these factors sustain US market in the coming year(s)? Source: Honda R&D Americas, Inc.
26
19.6%
Y/Y
2,387,529
Ford Explorer
4.9%
Y/Y
1,256,165
COMPACT 4D/2D
(C-seg)
1.4%
Y/Y
ENTRY SUV
0.2%
Y/Y
2,549,752
Toyota Corolla
MID/FULL SIZE
SUV
2,625,224
Honda CR-V
SUBCOMPACT
5D/4D (B-Seg)
Toyota Camry
27
More diverse on
multiple levels
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
Gen Y
Baby Boomers
2014: 50-68 age
2020: 56-74 age
76 million
Gen X
2014: 36-49 age
2020: 44-55 age
50 million
(Millennial)
2014: 20-35
2020: 26-43
78 million
Gen Z
2014: 19 & under
2020: 16-25 age
76 million
Source: Honda R&D Americas, Inc.
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3,500,000
Convergence of several factors is helping to bring more Gen Y to the market place.
28
Gen Y shows great potential for future new vehicle sales as life
stage factors and improving economic conditions converge
As the US economy fell into the great
Recession in 08/09, Gen Ys reluctance to
show interest in the automotive market was
attributed to the belief Generation Y was
disinterested in owning & driving cars.
Generation Y like cars as much as any previous generation. They just havent been
able to afford them until now they were just putting off (car buying) until they could
afford them being practical.As Gen Y consumers enter new life stages, earn higher
incomes and grow their families, their ability and desire to acquire new vehicles is
increasing. *
Generation Y will enter their peak HH formation & earning years by 2020 as a result,
shifting life stages requirements will precipitate new mobility needs -- as result, they are
becoming the primary target for auto industry.
Source: Honda R&D Americas, Inc.
29
US Luxury Market
400,000
Y/Y %
LUX
M/S
300,000
10CY
14.8%
10.8%
200,000
11CY
5.5%
10.9%
100,000
12CY
13.1%
13.4%
13CY
11.1%
7.2%
14CY
7.6%
5.7%
140%
120%
129.9%
100%
90.3%
83.6%
80%
33.7%
41.2%
60%
23.9%
59.6%
56.9%
40%
37.9%
20%
23.9%
0%
-20%
-46.7% -40%
-60%
14 Unit Sales
30
MB F015 Autonomous
Audi Piloted
Driving and
interactive
interfaces
Tech represented at CES is integral to the speed of change facing the automotive
Source: Honda R&D Americas, Inc.
industry and societal expectations/needs
31
2 Day event
Interactive
workshop hosted
by Frost &
Sullivan in
collaboration with
Industry Partners
Highly Informative
Panel discussions,
interactive sessions
and knowledge
sharing on Intelligent
and Urban mobility
trends and future
vision.
Key networking
opportunity with
Industry and
government
stakeholders.
All of these are in line to discuss and understand key trends within the industry and bring together high profile
industry experts from mobility- related functions across the globe.
32
Next Steps
Growth Consulting
http://ww2.frost.com/consulting/
Events
Join our Board of Advisors to discuss
your next project or training & learning
needs
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33
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35
Chiara Carella
Head of Corporate Communications
Automotive and Transportation
+44 207 343 8314
chiara.carella@frost.com
Shwetha Surender
Industry Analyst
Automotive and Transportation
+91 44 6160 4459
shwethas@frost.com
Sarwant Singh
Senior Partner and Business Unit
Leader
Automotive and Transportation
+44 207 915 7843
sarwant.singh@frost.com
Cyril Cromier
Vice President Sales
Automotive and Transportation
+33 1 42 81 22 44
cyril.cromier@frost.com
36