Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
a r t i c l e
i n f o
a b s t r a c t
Let { X , X k , k 1} be a sequence of negatively associated random variables with a common
distribution function and nite expectation and let be a nonnegative integer-valued
random variable independent of { X k , k 1}. In this paper we give unied form for the
> x)
=
asymptotic behavior of the random sums S = k=1 X k in the case of limx+ PP ((X>
x)
Article history:
Received 24 April 2009
Available online 8 October 2010
Submitted by M. Peligrad
C [0, +]. The results extend the earlier results of Aleskevicien et al. (2008) [2].
2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Consistent variation
Negatively association
Random sums
1. Introduction
Let { X k , k 1} be a sequence of random variables (r.v.s) with a common distribution function (d.f.) F (x) = 1 F (x) =
P ( X x) and let be a nonnegative integer-valued r.v. with d.f. F (x) = 1 F (x) = P ( x). For n 1, we denote by S n
the n-th partial sum of the sequence { X k , k 1}.
In this paper we aim to investigate the asymptotic behavior of the random sum S = k=1 X k in the case of X or is
heavy-tailed. Recall that a r.v. X (or its d.f.) is said to be heavy-tailed if Ee i X = for any positive . We need the following
subclasses of heavy tailed distributions.
A d.f. F (x) = 1 F (x) which supported in (, +) is said to belong to the class C if
F (xy )
y 1 x+
belong to R if
lim
F (x)
> 0 and
F (xy )
x+
= 1;
F (x)
= y
lim
F (x + y )
x+
F (x)
=1
lim sup
x+
F (xy )
F (x)
< +
This work was supported by National Science Foundation of China (Nos. 10671139, 11071182).
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: chengfy@suda.edu.cn (F. Cheng).
65
F (x)
F (x)
= c [0, ) and F (x) R . Robert and Segers [16] and Aleskevicien et al. [2] inves-
tigated the cases of F (x) with consistently varying tails under condition F (x) = o( F (x)) or F (x) C F (x). These results
have aroused our interest.
a(x)
a(x)
Here and henceforth, a(x) = o(b(x)) means that limx+ b(x) = 0, a(x) b(x) means that limx+ b(x) = 1.
Let us recall the two theorems in Aleskevicien et al. [2] as follows:
Theorem 1.A. (See [2, Theorem 1.2].) Suppose that { X k , k 1} is a sequence of nonnegative independent identically distributed (i.i.d.)
r.v.s with a common d.f. F (x). Let be a nonnegative integer-valued r.v. with nite mean E and d.f. F C . Let, in addition, r.v. be
independent of the sequence { X k , k 1} and satises F (x) = o( F (x)). Then, as x
P ( S > x) P ( > x/ E X ).
Theorem 1.B. (See [2, Theorem 1.3].) Suppose that { X k , k 1} is a sequence of nonnegative i.i.d.r.v.s with a common d.f. F (x) C
and nite mean E X . Let be a nonnegative integer-valued r.v. independent of the sequence { X k , k 1} and satises F (x) C F (x)
for some constant C > 0. Then
lim sup
x+
P ( S > x)
F (x)
E + C lim sup
x+
F (x/ E X )
F (x)
and
lim inf
x+
P ( S > x)
F (x)
E + C lim inf
F (x/ E X )
x+
F (x)
Note that the results of Theorem 1.B is not the form of the equivalent relation. In Theorem 2.2 of Aleskevicien et al. [2],
which is an application of Theorems 1.A and 1.B to the compound renewal risk model, they give three equivalent relations
according to the three cases. In the third case (i.e. P ( N > x) C B (x)) they only obtained the result for regular variation
tails assumptions. In Remark 2.2 of Aleskevicien et al. [2], they conjectured that the similar result should also establish in
the common situation. This paper will give an armative answer.
The main purposes of this paper are as follows:
cov f 1 ( X k , k A 1 ), f 2 ( X j , j A 2 ) 0
whenever f 1 and f 2 are coordinatewise increasing such that the covariance exists. An innite family is NA if each of its
nite subfamilies is NA.
Note that if two r.v.s X and Y are NA, they are also called negative quadrant dependent (NQD), which is introduced by
Lehmann [12].
Now we present the main results of this paper.
Theorem 1.1. Let { X , X k , k 1} be a sequence of NA r.v.s with a common d.f. F (x) satisfying E | X | < and E X > 0. Let
nonnegative integer-valued random variable with a d.f. F (x), independent of { X k , k 1}. Suppose that
lim
x+
F (x)
F (x)
= C [0, +].
be a
(1.1)
66
Let in addition, for C = 0, F (x) C and E < +; for C > 0, F (x) C and
P ( S > x) E F (x) + F
(1.2)
x
EX
(1.3)
E | X |r <
E = and
and
lim sup
x+
E [ I ( x)]
xr P ( > x)
is a nonnegative
= 0.
(1.4)
Then,
P ( S > x) F (x/ E X )
as x +.
(1.5)
P ( X > x)
P ( > x)
xr P ( X > x) E [ I ( x)]
E [ I ( x)] xr P ( > x)
F (x) = o F (x) .
Note that r = 1 is excluded in Theorem 3.2 of [16] in the case of E = . It is easy to see that (1.4) is slight weaker
than (3.11) in [16] in the case of r (1, 2].
2. Proof of theorems
2.1. Some lemmas
We shall need some lemmas for the proofs of Theorems 1.1 and 1.2. Lemma 2.1 comes from Theorem 3.1 of Geluk [10]:
Lemma 2.1. Suppose that the random variables X k , k = 1, . . . , n are NA with distribution functions
Fk D L ,
k = 1, . . . , n
P ( S n > x)
n
F k (x)
k =1
xF (x + ) = o F (x) .
(2.1)
P ( S n n > x)
1 = 0.
lim sup sup
n x n
nF (x)
(2.2)
67
E =
F (x) dx A
0
F (x) dx A E | X | < ,
0
lim sup
x+
P ( S > x)
1
(2.3)
1.
(2.4)
E F (x) + F (x/ E X )
and
lim inf
x+
P ( S > x)
E F (x) + F (x/ E X )
First we prove (2.3). For any x > 0, (0, 1), and positive integer M, let
P ( S > x) =
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
n =1
M
[(1)
x/ E X ]
n =1
n = M +1
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
n>(1)x/ E X
J 1 + J 2 + J 3.
(2.5)
F ((1 )x)
0+ x+
= 1,
F (x)
F (1 )
x
EX
(1 + ) F
J3 P
> (1 )
(1 + ) F
EX
(2.6)
EX
EX
holds for all x > x1 . For the xed above, F C D implies that there exists a constant C such that
2F ( x) C E F (x)
holds for all x > 0, on the other hand, E < yields that
n P ( = n) <
n = M 1 +1
2
holds for some integer M 1 > 0. Note that (1.2) implies (2.1), by Lemma 2.2 we have
n x n
where
P ( S n nE X > x)
nF ( x)
E X
. Thus there exists M 2
1
1
P ( S n nE X > x) 2nF ( x)
X
holds for all n > M 2 and x > nE
. Let M = max( M 1 , M 2 ) and x2 = M 2 / , thus for all x > x2 , we have
1
(2.7)
68
J2
[(1)
x/ E X ]
P ( S n nE X > x) P ( = n)
n = M +1
2
F ( x)n P ( = n) <
n = M +1
2
E F (x).
(2.8)
P ( S n > x) nF (x)
for any xed integer n. Hence, there exists x3 > 0 such that
J1 1 +
M
2
nF (x) P ( = n) < 1 +
n =1
2
E F (x)
(2.9)
P ( S > x) (1 + ) E F (x) + F
x
EX
holds for all x > max(x1 , x2 , x3 ), thus (2.3) is obtained in case 0 < C < .
In the case of C = , i.e. F (x) = o( F (x)), substituting Eq. (2.6) for the below one
F
(1 )x
=
EX
F (
F(
(1)x
EX
(1)x
EX
x
) F ( (1E)
)
X
F (x)
F (x) E F (x),
(2.10)
we obtain that
J 3 E F (x)
holds for all x > x1 . Accompanying with (2.5), (2.8) and (2.9), we have that
P ( S > x) (1 + 2 ) E F (x)
holds for all x > max(x1 , x2 , x3 ). Hence
lim sup
x+
P ( S > x)
E F (x)
1.
L (x)
and
F (x)
F (x)
L (x) 0
F (x)
F (x)
L (x)
1
F
(x) =
and let
1,
0 x < x0 ,
F (x)/ L (x),
x x0 ,
F
1 ( y ) = inf t R : F
(t ) y ,
where F
(t ) = 1 F
(t ). Let
X
= F
1 F ( X ) ,
0 y1
X k
= F
1 F ( X k ) ,
k = 1, 2, . . . .
x) = F
(x) and X 1
, X 2
, . . . is still a sequence of NA r.v.s
with identical distribution. Moreover, by
n
Proposition A.16(d) of Embrechts et al. [8], we have that X k X k
, k 1. Let S n
= k=1 X k
, then
Its easy to see P ( X
J1 + J2
M
P S n > x P ( = n) +
[(1)
x/ E X
]
n =1
69
P S n
> x P ( = n)
n = M +1
[(1)
x/ E X ]
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
n=[(1)x/ E X
]+1
J 1
+ J 2
+ J 2
.
Since F
(x) = o( F (x)) and F
2E F
(x) < F
(2.11)
D , there exists x
4
EX
J 1
+ J 2
< (1 + ) E F
(x) < F
EX
(2.12)
(1 )x
E X
C
F
x
EX
Sn
EX >
E X
1
(1)x
E X
[(1)
x/ E X ]
n=[(1)x/ E X
]+1
C
F
(1 )x
Sn
n
n=[(1)x/ E X
]+1
, Thus
[(1)
x/ E X ]
J 2
<
Sn
n
>
x
n
P ( = n)
EX >
E X
P ( = n)
1
E X
(2.13)
EX
P ( S > x) < (1 + 3 ) F
x
EX
lim sup
x+
P ( S > x)
F ( ExX )
1.
Therefore the proof of Eq. (2.3) is immediately obtained since F C D and F (x) = o( F (x)).
Now we give the proof of (2.4). For any positive integer M and (0, 1), and suciently large x > M E X /(1 + ), we
have
P ( S > x) =
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
n =1
M
n =1
n>
J 1 + J 4.
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
(1+)x
EX
(2.14)
70
n P ( = n) > 1
n =1
E .
For this xed M and 1 n M, by (1.2) and Lemma 2.1 and C D L we have
P ( S n > x) nF (x).
Thus there exists x1 > 0, for all x > x1 ,
J1 > 1
M
2
nF (x) P ( = n) > 1
n =1
2
E F (x) > (1 ) E F (x).
(2.15)
(1 + )x
1
EX
EX
holds for all x > x2 . By Theorem 1 in Matula [13], there exists x3 > x2 , for all x > x3 and n >
Sn
n
EX >
Thus
J4
n>
n>
Let x0 =
EX
E X
P
Sn
n
(1+)x
>
EX
>1 .
1+
Sn
(1+)x
(1+)x
EX
1+
P ( = n)
EX >
E X
2
x
x
P ( = n) > 1
F
> (1 ) F
.
1+
2
EX
EX
(2.16)
EX
E X
max{ M1+
, x1 , x3 },
x
P ( S > x) > (1 ) E F (x) + F
EX
holds for all x > x0 , hence Eq. (2.4) is obtained in the case of 0 < C < .
In the case of C = +, from Eq. (2.15) and J 1 + J 4 J 1 we have
lim inf
P ( S > x)
x+
E F (x)
1.
lim inf
P ( S > x)
x+
F (x/ E X )
1.
(2.17)
lim sup
x+
P ( S > x)
F (x/ E X )
1.
(2.18)
P ( S > x) =
n =1
=
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
n x/ E X
x/ E X <n(1)x/ E X
K1 + K2 + J 3.
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
n>(1)x/ E X
(2.19)
71
J3
0+ x+ F (x/ E X )
1.
(2.20)
K1
P S n nE X > (1 )x P ( = n)
n x/ E X
23r E | X E X |r
(1 )r
xr
n P ( = n) =
n x/ E X
23r E | X E X |r
E I ( x/ E X ) .
r
r
(1 ) x
Therefore
K1
F (x/ E X )
23r E | X E X |r
(1 )r
( E X )r
E I ( x/ E X )
( x/ E X )r P ( > x/ E X )
K1
0+ x+ F (x/ E X )
0.
(2.21)
K2 =
P ( S n > x) P ( = n)
x/ E X <n(1)x/ E X
P
x/ E X <n(1)x/ E X
Sn
n
P
x/ E X <n(1)x/ E X
>
EX
(1 )
Sn
P ( = n)
E X
EX >
P ( = n).
n
(1 )
Sn
E X
EX >
n
(1 )
= 0.
lim sup
x+
K2
F (x/ E X )
0
(2.22)
holds for all (0, 1/2). Applying (2.20)(2.22), the proof of (2.18) is nished.
3. Applications
In this section we present an application of Theorem 1.1 to ruin probability in the compound renewal risk model which
was introduced in Tang et al. [19]. The following denition of this model is given by Aleskevicien et al. [2] except a slight
change of the dependent structure of the individual claims.
Assumption 3.1. Z , Z 1 , Z 2 , . . . is a sequence of nonnegative NA r.v.s with a common distribution function B and a nite
mean = E Z < .
Assumption 3.2. The inter-arrival times , 1 , 2 , . . . are i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with nite mean E = 1/. In
addition, 1 , 2 , . . . are independent of Z 1 , Z 2 , . . . .
Assumption 3.3. The number of individual claims and individual claim sizes caused by the n-th accident at the moment
(n)
(n)
(n)
(n)
(n)
1 + + n are Nn and Z 1 , Z 2 , . . . , Z Nn , correspondingly. Here, the sequences Z 1 , Z 2 , . . . are independent copies
of Z 1 , Z 2 , . . . , and N , N 1 , N 2 , . . . are i.i.d. positive integer-valued random variables with nite mean = E N. In addition,
(n)
(n)
random variables N 1 , N 2 , . . . , 1 , 2 , . . . are independent, and both independent of the NA sequence Z 1 , Z 2 , . . . , n 1.
72
In the described model, the number of accidents in the interval [0, t ] is given by
(t ) = sup{n 1: 1 + + n t }.
The renewal counting process (t ) has a mean function (t ) = E (t ) with (t ) t as t . The total claim amount at
the moment 1 + + n and the total claim amount up to time t are, respectively,
(n)
S Nn =
Nn
(n)
Zi
(t )
and
i =1
(k)
SN =
k
k =1
Nk
(t )
(k)
Zj .
k =1 j =1
The surplus process of the insurance company in the described model is expressed by
Nk
(t )
R (t ) = x + ct
(k)
Zj
k =1 j =1
where x 0 is the initial surplus and c > 0 is the constant premium rate.
Denote by
(x, t ) = P
0st
the probability of ruin within time t. Clearly, this ruin can occur only at the times 1 + + k for k (t ). Hence,
(x, t ) = P
min
1k (t )
N
k
i
i =1
(i )
Z j c i
<0 .
(3.1)
j =1
For a distribution F , dene the (upper) Matuszewska index of the distribution F as follows:
J+
F = lim
log F ( v )
v +
log v
F ( vx)
F (x)
for v > 0.
For more details of the Matuszewska index, we refer the readers to Bingham et al. [3] and Tang and Tsitsiashvili [20].
Now we present a result for the asymptotic relation of ruin probability (x, t ). It extends the result of Theorem 2.2 in [2],
especially of part three. The proof is omitted since it is just similar to that of Theorem 2.2 in Aleskevicien et al. [2].
Remark 3.1. Suppose that Assumptions 3.13.3 are satised and
lim
x+
B (x)
F N (x)
= C [0, ].
(3.2)
+
p
Let in addition, for C = 0, F N C and E p < for some p > J+
N + 1; for C > 0, B C and E < for some p > J B + 1,
then we have
(x, t )
x+
(t )
B (u ) + F N
x
u
du
(3.3)
uniformly for t = {t: (t ) > 0}. Here, a(x, t ) b(x, t ) uniformly for t means that
lim
x+
a(x, t )
1 = 0.
sup
b
(
x
,
t
)
t
Note that this result extends that of Theorem 2.2 in [2], especially of part three. The proof is omitted since it is just
similar to that of Theorem 2.2 in Aleskevicien et al. [2].
4. An example
In this section, we give an example to show the difference between the independent sequence and the NA sequence.
Example 4.1. Let {, k : k 1} be a sequence of i.i.d.r.v.s with a common d.f. F (x) C and with nite mean. Let
{, k : k 1} be a sequence of nonnegative i.i.d.r.v.s with a common d.f. F (x) and with nite mean 0 < E < , and
let be a nonnegative integer-valued random variable with d.f. F (x) C satisfying P ( = 2k 1) = 0 for all k 1. Suppose that , {, k : k 1} and {, k : k 1} are mutually independent. Dene
Xn =
k + 2k1 , n = 2k 1;
k + 2k ,
n = 2k,
73
k 1.
Assume that is symmetric, i.e. P ( < x) = P ( > x) for all x. It is easy to verify that { X n : n 1} is a sequence of NA r.v.s
with a common d.f. F X (x) = F F (x) and E X = E . Suppose that
F (x)
lim
x+
F (x)
= C (0, ],
(4.1)
F (x) = o F (x) .
(4.2)
By (4.1), (4.2) and Lemma 5.6 of Pakes [15], we have F F (x) F (x). Combining with (4.1) yields that
F X (x)
lim
x+
Let S =
F (x)
k=1
= C (0, ].
and X , we have
x
x
= F
.
k > x F
P ( S > x) = P
k =1
EX
Neither (1.2) nor (1.3) does hold in this case. This indicates that the condition (1.2) cannot be canceled in some sense.
Acknowledgment
The authors are grateful to the anonymous referee for his/her very positive comments and suggestions.
References
[1] K. Alam, K.M.L. Saxena, Positive dependence in multivariate distributions, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 10 (1981) 11831196.