Brazilisthe21stcenturypowertowatch

ByMichaelSkapinker
Published:October20200903:00|Lastupdated:October20200903:00

WhenIappearedonapanelofjournalistsfrominternationalpublicationsrecently,the
moderatoraskedustonominateourbigstoryforthenextyear.
OneofthepanellistssuggestedtheUKparliamentaryelections.Asecondmentionedthe
continuedramificationsofthefinancialcrisis.IsaidBrazil,whichIwasabouttovisitforthe
firsttime.
Consider,Isaid:Brazilhadcomethroughthefinancialcrisisinreasonableshape.Itwas
sittingonavastdeepseaoilfind.Ithadjustseentheworld'sbiggeststockmarketlisting
thisyearthe$8bnflotationofpartoftheBrazilianarmofSantander.Itwouldalsobehost
totheworld'stwobiggestsportingevents:the2014footballWorldCupandthe2016
OlympicGameswhichRiodeJaneirohadwonthismonthoverTokyo,Madridand
Chicago.
YetasIsatonmyflighttoRio,Icouldnotsuppresssometrepidationatthecountry'swell
knowndrawback."Violenceandcrimecanoccuranywhereandofteninvolvefirearmsor
otherweapons,"theBritishForeignOfficetraveladviceonBrazilsays."Casesof
carjackingoccur,sometimeswiththeoccupantsbeingtakenandforcedtowithdrawmoney
fromtheiraccountsatcashmachines."
Asforpublictransport:"Therehavebeeninstanceswheregangshavesetbusesalight
leavingpassengersinsideafterrobbingthem,"theForeignOfficesaid.
Officialadviceisoftenfrightening.Shouldtheworsthappen,governmentsdonotwantyou
sayingtheyshouldhavewarnedyou.
ButoldBrazilhandPeterRobbwasnomorereassuring.Brazilwas"acountryofimmense
naturalwealth,atpeacewithitsneighboursandfacingnounusualturbulenceorsocial
unrestwithinitsborders.YetthekillingrateinBrazil,tensofthousandsofviolentdeathsa
year,fallswithintheparametersoftheUnitedNations'definitionofalowintensitycivilwar,"
hewroteinhishypnoticallycompellingbookADeathinBrazil.
Isawnoneofthis.Butwithintwodaysofmydeparture,gunbattlesbetweenrivalRiodrug
gangsclaimedatleast14lives,includingtwopoliceofficerskilledwhentheirhelicopter
wasshotdown.
Peoplewholiveinhighcrimecountriesoftensaythreethings.First,thatnothinghasever
happenedtothemintheirsupposedlydangeroushometown,butthattheyhavebeen
muggedin,say,London.Second,thatallyouneedtodoistakethesamesensible
precautionsyouwouldathome.Third,thatviolenceisconfinedtocertainareasand
consistsmostlyofcriminalskillingeachother.
Thefirstdefenceissilly.OfcoursepeoplearemuggedinLondon.Itisjustalotless
common.Thesecondmissesthepoint:athome,youknowwhichneighbourhoodsare

roughandwhothetroublemakersmightbe.Inanewplaceyoudonot,andmiscreants
s
senseyourhesitation.
Thethirdistrueinsomeplaces,butnotinBrazil,whereviolencefrequentlyspreads
o
outsidethefavelasandwherethebetterofffretabouttheirsafety.
ItistoBrazil'sgreatcreditthatduringseveraldaysoftalksandinterviewsinRioandSo
Paulo,notonepersondeniedthatthecountry'sviolentcrimewasrealandcouldhavea
seriousimpactonitsdevelopment,nottomentiononitstwoshowcasesportingevents.
Itisnotjustcrime.Brazil'srail,roadandairportfacilitiesrequiredauntinginvestment.The
v
vastgapbetweenrichandpoorisimmediatelyevident.
YetBrazilisacountrywithoutstandingpotential,awelcomingandrichlydiversepeople,
excellentfoodandseveralworldclasscompanies.UnlikeChina,Brazilhasnosharp
ethnicconflictsandisamultipartydemocracy.Brazilianscomplainabouttheirpoliticians'
corruption,butpointoutthat,unlikeintheUS,resultsinpresidentialelectionsthenextis
d
dueinOctober2010areannouncedswiftly.
Extractingthenewlyfoundoil,buriedbeneaththousandsofmetresofwater,rockandsalt,
willbechallenging.ButthereservespresenttheintriguingprospectofBrazilbecominga
majoroilexporterwhilederivingmostofitsownelectricityfromhydroenergyandpowering
m
manyofitscarswithsugarcaneethanol.
Braziliansknowoilcanbeacurseaswellasablessing.Howitusesitsnewwealthwill
d
determinewhetheritbecomesa21stcenturyforce.
Brazilisathrillingplacetovisit.Inhisbook,Robbwrote:"Rioishugeandlovelyand
t
terrifying.SoPauloishugerandmoreterrifyingandnotlovelyatall."
HeisrightaboutRio'slovelinesstheOlympicmarathonisgoingtomakeforstunning
television.SoPaulo,whilenotlovely,hasmoreshadedjacarandalinedavenuesthanyou
m
mightexpect.
Brazilwillbeabigstorynotjustoverthenextyearbutformanymoretocome.

m
michael.skapinker@ft.com
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Source:FinancialTimes,
Availableon:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/71dacf5ebd1011dea7ec00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1.
Acessin21oct2009.