The Case for SmartDrivingCars

by

Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD

Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director, Program in Transportation
Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering)
Princeton University

Presented at

Orf467F15
September 21, 2015

Quality of Life 101: Important Elements

Environment
Clean air, water,

Employment
High Quality Jobs
Correlated with Crime/Personal Safety

Mobility
Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience,
Main Premise:
Facilitating the Adoption of Smart Driving Technology:

Creates High Quality Jobs, Improves Personal Safety

Improves Safety, Efficiency, Equity, Comfort, Convenience,
Improves the Environment
All for FREE!

The Problem.
We Love the Freedom & Mobility
ButContinuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjHXtGC13wo

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/HIGHWA
Y_SING-A-LONG_%20BuildMeUpButtercup.mp4

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

2011 Nationwide
Bus Casualty and Liability Expense
Source FTA NTD

Casualty and
Liability
Amount

Vehiclerelated

$483,076,010.

Total Buses

59,871

Sub-Total Casualty and

Liability Amount Per Bus

$8,069/Bus/Year

NOT: Future Vehicle Technologies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rx6keHpeYak

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivin
gCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSight_Commercial
60secCrashTest.mp4

http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/Subaru%20EyeSi
ght_Commercial60secCrashTest.mp4

More Likely: Future Vehicle Technologies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWj44GjrSs0

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level 0 (No automation)

SmartDrivingCars & Trucks

The human is in complete and sole control of safety-critical functions (brake, throttle, steering) at all times.

Level 1 (Function-specific automation)

The human has complete authority, but cedes limited control of certain functions to the vehicle in certain normal driving or
crash imminent situations. Example: electronic stability control

Level 2 (Combined function automation)

Automation of at least two control functions designed to work in harmony (e.g., adaptive cruise control and lane centering) in
certain driving situations.
Enables hands-off-wheel and foot-off-pedal operation.
Driver still responsible for monitoring and safe operation and expected to be available at all times to resume control of the
vehicle. Example: adaptive cruise control in conjunction with lane centering

Level 3 (Limited self-driving)

Vehicle controls all safety functions under certain traffic and environmental conditions.
Human can cede monitoring authority to vehicle, which must alert driver if conditions require transition to driver control.
Driver expected to be available for occasional control. Example: Google car

Level 4 (Full self-driving automation)

Vehicle controls all safety functions and monitors conditions for the entire trip.
The human provides destination or navigation input but is not expected to be available for control during the trip. Vehicle may
operate while unoccupied. Responsibility for safe operation rests solely on the automated system

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level

55 Chevy

Insurance
Implications

Value
Proposition
(driver/buyer)

Market Force
(who/what)

Societal Implications

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Freedom
Life Style

Market Dominance
(Madison Avenue)

Death trap

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level

55 Chevy

0+ Crash Mitigation (air

bags, seat belts, energy absorbing)

Insurance
Implications

Value
Proposition
(driver/buyer)

Market Force
(who/what)

Societal Implications

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Freedom
Life Style

Market Dominance
(Madison Avenue)

Death trap

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Disdain

Public sector;
Law enforcement

Fewer deaths

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level

55 Chevy

0+ Crash Mitigation (air

bags, seat belts, energy absorbing)

1st generation
automated systems :
(Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes)

Insurance
Implications

Value
Proposition
(driver/buyer)

Market Force
(who/what)

Societal Implications

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Freedom
Life Style

Market Dominance
(Madison Avenue)

Death trap

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Disdain

Public sector;
Law enforcement

Fewer deaths

Slightly reduced
claims

Some Comfort

Public sector

Slightly fewer accidents

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level

55 Chevy

0+ Crash Mitigation (air

bags, seat belts, energy absorbing)

1st generation
automated systems :

Insurance
Implications

Value
Proposition
(driver/buyer)

Market Force
(who/what)

Societal Implications

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Freedom
Life Style

Market Dominance
(Madison Avenue)

Death trap

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Disdain

Public sector;
Law enforcement

Fewer deaths

Slightly reduced
claims

Some Comfort

Public sector

Slightly fewer accidents

50% less
$ liability;

More Comfort

Will need help from Flo

& the Gecko (Insurance

50% fewer accidents;

less severity->

(Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes)

2 Attentive Automated
Driving: (Collision Avoidance & Lane
Centering)

++ profits

incentivizes adoption)

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level

55 Chevy

0+ Crash Mitigation (air

bags, seat belts, energy absorbing)

1st generation
automated systems :

Insurance
Implications

Value
Proposition
(driver/buyer)

Market Force
(who/what)

Societal Implications

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Freedom
Life Style

Market Dominance
(Madison Avenue)

Death trap

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Disdain

Public sector;
Law enforcement

Fewer deaths

Slightly reduced
claims

Some Comfort

Public sector

Slightly fewer accidents

50% less
$ liability;

More Comfort

Will need help from Flo

& the Gecko (Insurance

50% fewer accidents;

less severity->

(Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes)

2 Attentive Automated
Driving: (Collision Avoidance & Lane
Centering)

3 Un-Attentive Automated
Driving : Texting Machine
(Collision Avoidance, Lane Changing &
Centering, Intersection Control)

incentivizes adoption)

++ profits

Even less
$ liability
(~Product liability)

++ profits

Liberation (some
of the time/places)

; more Safety

Consumers Pull,
TravelTainment Industry
Push

++ Car sales,
-- insurance claims,
+ VMT

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
What the Levels Deliver:

Levels 1 -> 2: (Driverless

Repositioning) Safety, Comfort
& Convenience

An Insurance Discount Play

Levels 3:

Pleasure, Safety, Comfort &

Convenience

An Enormous Consumer Play

Level 4 (Driverless
Repositioning) : Pleasure,
Mobility, Efficiency,
Equity
Elimination of cost of
Labor Revolutionizes
Mass Transit by
Enabling Low-cost to
even single riders
zero
A Corporate Utility/Fleet Play

What is a SmartDrivingCar?
Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles
Level

55 Chevy

0+ Crash Mitigation (air

bags, seat belts, energy absorbing)

1st generation
automated systems :

Insurance
Implications

Value
Proposition
(driver/buyer)

Market Force
(who/what)

Societal Implications

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Freedom
Life Style

Market Dominance
(Madison Avenue)

Death trap

Many Accidents,
High Claims

Disdain

Public sector;
Law enforcement

Fewer deaths

Slightly reduced
claims

Some Comfort

Public sector

Slightly fewer accidents

50% less
$ liability;

More Comfort

Will need help from Flo

& the Gecko (Insurance

50% fewer accidents;

less severity->

(Cruise Control & Anti-lock Brakes)

2 Attentive Automated
Driving: (Collision Avoidance & Lane
Centering)

3 Un-Attentive Automated
Driving : Texting Machine

Even less
$ liability

(Collision Avoidance, Lane Changing &

Centering, Intersection Control)

(~Product liability)

4 Driverless: aTaxi

Fleet coverage;

Able to

incentivizes adoption)

++ profits

Liberation (some
of the time/places)

; more Safety

++ profits
(~Product liability)

Chauffeured,
Mobility Bought
by the Drink
rather than by
the Bottle

Consumers Pull,
TravelTainment Industry
Push

Profitable Business
Opportunity for
Utilities/Transit
Companies

++ Car sales,
-- insurance claims,
+ VMT

Personal Car = Bling not

instrument of personal mobility,
Comm. Design ++;
PMT ?; VMT - -, Energy - -,
Congestion - -, Environment ++

Discussion!

Thank You
alaink@princeton.edu

www.SmartDrivingCar.com