BEYONDLEAN LTD.

PROBLEM SOLVING

Introduction

We all encounter problems in our everyday lives as well as at work.

Some problems have a habit of repeating themselves whereas others are
seen as one offs. Our approach to solving these problems depends on
our previous experience and the severity of the problem.

We can all use solving problems as a learning experience. If we are

simply told the answer to a problem we will probably ask again the next
time a similar problem arises. If we work out the answer for ourselves we
are much more likely to remember the solution.

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PROBLEM SOLVING

Brainstorming
This is a team technique for generating ideas.

Identify the problem area

Appoint a leader and ideas recorder

(STORMING PHASE)
Generate as many ideas as possible
Do not evaluate ideas at this stage
Record all ideas
Build on other peoples ideas

Evaluate all ideas

SELECT BEST
IDEA(S)

We can expand on the previous diagram.

1.

First of all the team identifies the problem area.

2.

A leader is appointed to make sure the team follows the simple

rules of brainstorming.

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PROBLEM SOLVING

The team then generates as many ideas and suggestions as possible.

It is important at this stage that:
only one person talks at a time
ideas and suggestions are recorded where all team
members can see them
every idea is written down. Team members should be
encouraged to think of anything, as well as to build on the
ideas already recorded
during the storming session no ideas are evaluated. If
there is no evaluation then the flow of ideas will not be
broken, and people will not be inhibited from putting
forward ideas which are unusual but quite possibly useful
and creative

4.

Evaluate all of the ideas generated during the storming phase. Sort
them quickly into one of the following categories:
possible
not possible
interesting
Not possibles can be discarded straight away.
Possibles are kept for more detailed analysis
Interesting ideas are those which are likely to be very
unusual, creative solutions which some members might
feel uncomfortable with at first. Try to expand on them
though because some of the most brilliant ideas to come
from brainstorming sessions have fallen into the
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interesting category. (The idea for the cashpoint

machines came for a brainstorming sessions for a hole in
the wall where people could put their hand in to get
money).

5.

All possible and interesting ideas are evaluated in detail and the
best possibility selected.

Quality Circles
These are formalised versions of brainstorming sessions. They should be
arranged with different levels of staff and different departments attending.
We must ensure that for all items or problems that are being discussed
everyone who could be affected by the problem has some input into the
ultimate outcome. It is important that all levels are allowed equal input
and those higher up the organisational chart do not dominate the
proceedings. Remember the actual operators of the machines and the
process are more likely to notice change and be in a position to identify
when there are problems at an early stage.

A Team Approach
The approaches discussed to solving problems so far rely very much on a
team approach. Many organisations use teambuilding programmes on
their employees as they can see the benefits of effective team working
approaches. This can be summed up as: Together
Everyone
Achieves
More
As individuals we may well have other strengths and skills which we do
not get the opportunity to demonstrate in our current role. An effective
organisation will look to tap into the skills to provide the best opportunity
for the individual and therefore improved performance for the
organisation. The better the input from our team the easier it will be to
make the right decision.
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Decision Making
We are all constantly making decisions, whether it is to decide which car
to buy, what is the correct solution to a particular problem or which tool
to use for a particular job. Some decisions are very easy to make and
only need a moments thought. Others, need careful consideration possibly lasting weeks, before the decision is made.
The process of making a decision is an integral part of other processes
such as planning, problem-solving, delegation and continuous
improvement. Each of these processes is made up of a series of
actions/steps that should produce a change or development of some kind,
i.e. problem-solving should produce a solution and continuous
improvement - a quantifiable improvement.

Before most of these individual activities or steps take place, a decision of

some kind will need to be made, e.g. how to handle a particular step or
who should do what and when.

Most leaders find that decision-making is best done with a systematic

approach. That way, if a decision goes wrong, it is quite easy to find the
reason. This is much more difficult when instinct alone is used.

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PROBLEM SOLVING

A Structured Approach
The structured approach that we advise you to use has six main steps:
Define and clarify the issue
Gather the facts
Think of possible options
Evaluate the options
Select the best option
Follow up on your decision

It is not essential that every step is always carried out, or that they are
always done in this order. Current conditions and circumstances need to
be taken into account. However, this model is a good starting point and
there will be times when the whole six steps may only take a matter of a
few seconds to complete.

We can look at the six steps in detail:

Step 1 - Define and Clarify the Issue

The first step here is to make sure you are looking at the real issue. For
example, suppose your manager is concerned about the amount of waste
in your section. Let us say he sets a challenging goal of 35%
improvement in the quality of work produced by the team.

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PROBLEM SOLVING

Rather than assume that team members just need to work harder, you
need to find the root cause of the problem. For example, is there a lack of
training? Is poor equipment being used? Are team members aware of
standards?

Next you need to make sure a decision is really necessary. Are you overreacting to a single incident? A single incident may not reveal a pattern
or a situation that is serious enough to warrant action on your part.

You also need to consider the time-scale involved. This will affect how
you approach the situation. If the time-scale has not been set for you, it is
important to set a reasonable date or time for reaching a decision. You
need to allow enough time to gather necessary information. At the same
time, you should avoid delaying a decision if this would cause danger or
waste resources.

Finally, consider any other factors that might help define or limit your
decision. There may be company policies that limit your options. Also,
you may need to consider legal or financial factors, as well as the impact
on other sections of the department.

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PROBLEM SOLVING

Step 2 - Gather the Facts

The next step is to collect as much information as you need on the

situation requiring a decision.

Ask questions such as:

How much information do I have? Do I need more?
Is there a pattern of occurrences involved?
Is the situation more people-related or machine/technology
related?
Do I need information from someone outside the company?
Who is affected on my team? Who is affected elsewhere in the
section or department?

Talk to the people involved. This is vital for gathering information and
helping those affected feel they are part of the decision-making process.
As a result, they will be more likely to commit themselves to the course
of action you choose.

Use other resources available also. Check the company records or

information provided by manufacturers or suppliers. If you are dealing
with a complex issue, talk to people in the company who have specialist
knowledge or experience of the issue.

Keep an eye on your decision and organise the information as you gather
it. Often, you will see a relationship between facts or items of
information. Patterns may emerge - problem areas may become more
obvious.
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The importance of using facts cannot be over-emphasised. Many, many

costly and damaging mistakes have been made because people did not
base their decisions on facts but instead listened to hearsay, did not check
information, or in the worst case - listened to rumour.
These mistakes included:
new machinery being bought when not required
the wrong machinery/equipment being bought
hiring the wrong people
dismissing the wrong people
expensive rework
excessive waste
poor quality going out to customers ..... and many more

Always use factual information to make your decision.

Step 3 - Think of Possible Options

When you are thinking of possible options, let your thoughts flow freely.
List as many options as you can - allow your mind to wander.
Remember, no option is too trivial, insignificant or unreasonable that you
should not give it some consideration. It may lead to other ideas, even if
it is not useful in itself.

Think of similar situations you have encountered in the past. They may
bring to mind options that otherwise would not occur to you. You might
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also want to consult colleagues who have faced similar situations - you
may be able to put their experience to work for you.
Consider calling a meeting. People who have hands-on knowledge of a
situation often have valuable insights to share. Remember, people who
are consulted about decisions give more commitment to carrying them
out. Bring together a group to brainstorm ideas.

If you solicit ideas from people in your team, be careful. Make it clear
that you are asking for ideas only - you are not asking anyone to decide
for you. Also, soliciting options or solutions does not necessarily mean
you will be putting other peoples solutions into practise.

Write down all your options. Keep a written record of the ideas
generated. If you do not record them, you may well loose valuable
information when you cannot remember them later.

Step 4 - Evaluate the Options

Now you have a list of options, you need to think through each one. Ask
questions such as:
What are its good points?
What are its bad points?
What is likely to happen if I select this option?
Is it possible or practical?

List as many possible outcomes as you can, as well as the costs involved.
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Pros and cons may cancel each other out in many cases, leaving certain
options with clear-cut advantages and disadvantages. When there are no
clear-cut advantages or disadvantages then using a matrix will help you to
choose the least harmful or least undesirable option. The main thing is to
be as thorough as possible as you evaluate every option.

Step 5 - Select the Best Option

When the analysis of the information is over, it is up to you to make a

decision. This may call on you balancing out the disadvantages
/advantages of each of the serious options. Eventually, you will need to
arrive at a conclusion as to the overall relative merit/dismerit of each
option.

Should there be no difference between any two options, the answer may
be to toss a coin to decide which one to go for. By accepting to live with
the consequences, the problems of uncertainty and procrastination are
taken away.
Another option is to sleep on it before making a choice. Ask yourself
does the decision feel right?

Once you make your mind up - commit to your decision. Focus your
energy on making your decision work. Put a plan on paper for carrying it
out. When you draw up your plan, be sure to include the steps to take and
the people who will be involved in carrying out your decision.

Communicate your decision to those involved - both up and down. Show

enthusiasm. Face-to-face communication is best (as we have seen),
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because it allows you a chance to sell your decision. Explain what you
have decided, why and how you are going to carry it out. People who are
involved, both your manager and your team, are more likely to
understand your decision (and accept it), if you do.

Step 6 - Follow up your Decision

It is important to follow up on your decision - making sure it is working

as planned. Monitor what is happening and after a reasonable length of
time, check what has happened against the objective you decided on.

Talk to the people involved. Find out if things are working smoothly, or
if unexpected difficulties are arising. Some adjustments may be needed this is not uncommon and does not mean your decision was wrong.

Once you have identified any new problems that have occurred as a result
of your decision, start the decision - making process again.

If your decision was a success, you have a model you can use for future
decisions and an opportunity to praise those involved. If your decision
did not work out, you can still learn from the experience. In either case,
sharing the knowledge you have gained can benefit your organisation.

Summary
Decision-making is an important part of a leaders job. It need not be
overwhelming if you approach decisions with a plan, consider each
decision as the unique opportunity that it is, and learn from your
experiences. Many people use this six-step approach without even
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realising it. By recognising and consciously using the model, however,

you can increase your odds of making consistently good decisions.

Decision Making Checklist

define and clarify the issue
gather the facts
think of possible options
evaluate the options
select the best option
follow up on your decision

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Seven Tools for Problem Solving

There are seven commonly used pictorial tools which can be used to help
monitor, analyse and solve problems on any given subject.
These 7 tools are:

Tally Charts
Histograms
Run Charts
Control Charts
Pareto Analysis
Scatter Diagrams
Cause and Effect Analysis

The advantage of these pictorial tools is that with the information in a

very visual format it allows best or worst conditions to be seen at a
glance.
We will now go through each of the 7 tools in turn.

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Tally Charts
Tally Charts or frequency tables are a simple means of collecting data and
then displaying it in a simple visual form.

Most of the data required will probably already be in existence, however,

traditionally data is collected and stored in a purely numeric form. In this
form it is difficult to derive meaningful information from these numbers.

TABLE 1
7.09

7.10

7.09 7.08 7.07 7.08 7.09 7.06 7.07 7.08 7.10

7.13

7.12

7.11 7.10 7.09 7.10 7.08 7.05 7.11 7.06 7.08

7.07

7.06

7.05 7.04 7.03 7.06 7.09 7.07 7.08 7.07 7.09

7.08

7.10

7.07 7.11 7.08 7.07 7.10 7.09 7.06 7.10 7.06

7.09

7.08

7.09 7.06 7.09 7.08 7.06 7.07 7.08 7.06 7.08

7.08

7.05

7.06 7.08 7.07 7.10 7.08 7.11 7.09 7.07 7.09

7.12

7.07

7.10 7.07 7.06 7.11 7.07 7.12 7.05 7.08 7.10

7.08

7.08

7.11 7.08 7.05 7.08 7.04 7.09 7.07 7.05 7.08

7.09

7.07

7.06 7.07 7.10 7.07 7.09 7.08 7.05 7.09 7.04

7.10

7.08

7.09 7.11 7.09 7.08 7.06 7.07 7.10 7.08 7.11

7.05

By organising this data pictorially we can convert this mass of numbers

into meaningful information.

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Using the Tally Chart (Table 2) we can see:

The most common (frequent) value
The range of valves (highest and lowest)
The variation in the process
Frequency of results
Cumulative frequency of results
Cumulative percentage

TABLE 2
CLASS OR
VALUE
7.14
7.13
7.12
7.11
7.10
7.09
7.08
7.07
7.06
7.05
7.04
7.03
7.02

TALLY

FREQUENCY

CUMULATIVE
FREQUENCY

(CUMULATIVE %)
VALUE (%)

I
III
IIII
IIII
IIII
IIII
IIII
IIII
IIII
III
I

1
3
8
13
18
25
18
13
8
3
1

1
4
12
25
43
68
86
99
107
110
111

0.9%
2.72%
7.2%
11.8%
16.36%
22.7%
16.36%
11.8%
7.2%
2.72%
0.9%

III
IIII III
IIII IIII III
IIII IIII IIII IIII
IIII IIII III
IIII III
III

To construct a Tally Chart there are a number of things to consider.

Title
All Tally Charts should have a title to clearly identify exactly what the
data represents.

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SPECIFICATION
LIMITS

SPECIFICATION
LIMITS

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PROBLEM SOLVING

Class or value column

This should contain the values or range of values to be recorded against.

There are, however, a number of things to consider when constructing
this column.

If using individual values:

Choose small cell widths, the resolution of any measuring
equipment may help decide this
Either pick out the smallest and largest values in the group of
data or from below lowest specification to above highest
specification. For both all values in between must be listed.

If recording values which fall in a range:

Set range widths carefully to avoid duplication i.e.

If two range widths were:

1.0 -

1.50 and 1.50 - 2.0

A reading of 1.5 could be counted twice, therefore:

1.0 1.49
2.0

1.50 1.99

2.49 etc.

Would be more accurate.

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Specification Limits

If specification limits exist on this process draw dashed lines on the tally
chart to identify any out of specification readings.

Tally Column
Record each measurement or observation in the tally column. If taken
from a chart of data cross of each value as recorded to prevent
duplication.

Frequency Column

Record the total number of each value in the frequency column.

Cumulative Frequency

You may wish to add a cumulative frequency column to monitor the

number of readings and calculate cumulative percentage.

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Cumulative Percentage or Value Percentage

To complete the cumulative percentage column used in a normal
probability plot use the following formula:

CUMULATIVE

CUM FREQ x 100

PERCENTAGE

(N + 1)

To complete the value percentage column use the following formula:

VALUE PERCENTAGE

FREQ x 100
(N + 1)

Note

N = total number of observations or tallys N + 1 is

used to allow for sampling error.

To summarise the advantages of a Tally Chart are as follows:

They are easy to produce
They are quick and easy to use
Transforms data quickly and easily into a visual format
Can be used for collection and analysis

The main disadvantage of a Tally Chart is that they can often be

inaccurate, especially when a large number of values or classes are
counted.

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Histograms
A Histogram is a bar chart, which displays the pattern of variation found
within the specified data. The data collected on a Tally Chart is often
used to form the Histogram.

Four key aspects can be observed from a Histogram.

Shape of distribution
Central tendency
Range (or dispersion) of results (including process fall out)
Frequency of results

To construct a Histogram there are a number of things to be considered.

Title

The Histogram should have a title stating clearly and concisely what is
represented by the Histogram. (Any graph without a title is meaningless)

Axis

The x-axis (the horizontal scale) must be labelled in the same increments
as the data to be plotted. If this data is to be taken from a Tally Chart
then the increments from the class or value column must be used.

The y-axis (vertical scale) must be labelled with frequency only. Again
this must include the full range of occurrence.
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Specification Limits

If a tolerance or specification exists this can be added to the Histogram

simply by plotting two vertical lines from the lower and upper
specification limits.

A typical Histogram will look like this:

TABLE 3
Using this format any patterns or trends in the results can be seen more
easily than in a Tally Chart. This allows:

Any significant variation to be identified,

Any areas requiring improvement to be identified.

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Distribution

In a capable process the bars of a Histogram will form the shape of a bell.
This is easier to see if a line is drawn connecting the peaks of each bar.
(Table 4)

TABLE 4

This line, referred to as a bell shaped curve, represents normal

distribution.

Wherever variation occurs randomly, i.e. height of people you will

always get a bell shaped curve.

Even in a manufacturing process variation will occur randomly (even if

this variation is very small) and if enough results are plotted then a
normal distribution or bell shaped curve will be observed.

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To achieve a Histogram or distribution curve that accurately illustrates

your process conditions 50 to 100 individual measurements may be
required.

If, when the distribution curve is drawn around the Histogram, it is found
to be like the example below, (Table 5) then this would indicate that there
were specific causes to the variation.

TABLE 5
LOWER
TOLERANCE

LOWER
TOLERANCE

Histograms, therefore can display a large amount of data in an easy to

read format, they can also display the distribution of results. It must be
noted at this stage, however, that although a normal bell curve proves
that distribution is random, it does not prove that the process is in control.

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Run Chart
A Run Chart is essentially a line graph that shows changes with time.

Run Charts are very simple to produce but should all contain:

Title

All Run Charts should have a title stating clearly and concisely what is
represented by the chart.

Axis

The x-axis (horizontal scale) must be labelled in increments of time. A

scale, representative of the frequency of data collection should be used.

The y-axis will need to be labelled in increments reflective of

measurement scale i.e. percentage, millimetres etc.

Run Charts will clearly show, in a very visual and simple form, trends
whether upwards or downwards and variation. (Table 6)

What they do not show, however, is if variation (and therefore process

control) is good or bad.

Run charts can also be used to plot performance of two or more processes
or shifts, against set criteria. (Table 7)

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TABLE 6
98

%
97
96
95
94
93
92
91

SHIFT

TABLE 7
100

99
98
97
96
95
94
93
1

A
B
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Control Charts
Control Charts (or x-bar and R charts) are effectively line graphs. They
do differ in one major way from a conventional line graph in as much as
they also have control limits. These limits act as an alarm to instigate
corrective action should they be exceeded.

These control limits are not related to the drawing tolerance. They are
calculated from the average of the results, the range of the results and the
sample size.

It would be fair to say that the control limits, if drawn on a Histogram,

would be positioned where the bell curve is tapering out. Greater than
99% of all readings on the Histogram will be within the control limits.

UPPER
DRAWING
TOLERANCE

LOWER
CONTROL LIMIT

UPPER CONTROL
LIMIT

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LOWER
DRAWING
TOLERANC
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If a process exceeds these limits then something has happened (often

referred to as a special cause) which has caused more variation in the
process than normal. This must always be investigated.

As mentioned earlier a Control Chart is often referred to as an x-bar (x)

and R chart this is because it measures or monitors x which is the average
of the subgroup. (Usually five consecutive measurements) and R which
is the range of the results (the difference between the highest and lowest
result in the subgroup). To explain this further let us consider two
subgroups

Subgroup 1
5.3
6.1
4.2
3.1
6.3

x = TOTAL VALUE
SAMPLE No.
= 25 = 5
5

R = HIGHEST VALUE LOWEST VALUE

R = 6.3 3.1 = 3.2

Subgroup 2
5.1 x = TOTAL VALUE
4.9
SAMPLE No.
5.2 x = 25 = 5
4.8
5
5.0

R = HIGHEST VALUE LOWEST VALUE

Subgroup 1

x=5

R = 3.2

Subgroup 2

x=5

R = 0.4

R = 5.2 4.8 = 0.4

Although both subgroups have an x of 5 the variation (R) in Subgroup 1

is much greater than in Subgroup 2. If only x were plotted the full picture
would not be seen.
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Control Charts are not only used to highlight readings or parts falling out
of the limits. Perhaps more importantly they can be used to predict
failures or to highlight changes in a process.

There are a number of guidelines to consider when interpreting Control

Charts:
If any reading or measurement is outside of the control limits
If there is a run (trend) of seven consecutive readings above or
below the average line (mean)
If there is a run (trend) of seven consecutive readings all increasing
or decreasing
If there is obvious non-random patterns

Then the process is out of control

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Below are some examples:

Points outside of control limits

UCL
MEAN

LCL
Seven points above or below mean
UCL

MEAN

LCL

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Seven points increasing or decreasing

UCL

MEAN

LCL

For Control Charts to be truly effective information must be gathered at

regular intervals, either by time, or number. Samples should also be
consecutive parts and subgroup sizes should be constant. (five is a normal
size)

If an out of control reading is recorded then the cause of this variation

(special cause) must be identified. It can then be analysed and a
countermeasure implemented. Cause and Effect and Pareto Analysis are
tools often used to assist this.
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If a process is continually within the control limits, then they should be

recalculated. In constantly tightening the control limits we will be
following the path of Continuous Improvements.

Formulas for x-bar and R Charts

CL
UCL
LCL
x
R
k
n

- Centre Line
- Upper Control Limit
- Lower Control Limit
- Average of subgroup
- Range (high low) of subgroup
- Number of subgroups
- Samples per subgroup
- Summation

xbar Chart
CL = x = x/k
UCL = x + (A2) (R)
LCL = x (A2) (R)
R Chart
CL = R = R / k
UCL = (D4) (R)
LCL = (D3) (R)

A2

D3

D4

d2
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2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

1.88
1.023
.729
.577
.483
.419
.373
.337
.308

PROBLEM SOLVING

.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.076
.136
.184
.223

3.267
2.574
2.282
2.114
2.004
1.924
1.864
1.816
1.777

1.128
1.693
2.059
2.326
2.534
2.704
2.847
2.970
3.078

Pareto Analysis
Pareto Analysis is a tool by which causes or problems can be arranged
according to their severity and so their relative importance.

The purpose of a Pareto diagram is to assist in deciding which are the

greatest concerns, therefore which should be tackled first.

The information required to perform a Pareto Analysis can usually be

taken directly from a Tally Chart.

The Pareto is essentially a Bar Chart which displays problems in rank

order, which is to say the largest bar (greatest concern) is displayed first.
Usually a few concerns will stand out much more than the others, these
are known as the vital few the remaining bars are known as the trivial
many.
The vital few should become the main focus of any improvement
activities. Once these are reduced or eliminated a new vital few will
emerge, eventually all problems should be eliminated.
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A weighting factor can also be applied to a Pareto. For instance, if the

cost in money or time is used as a weighting factor, then the results may
be multiplied by this value

If the technique was applied then the frequency would not necessarily
dictate the vital few. For instance a frequent fault may have very small
cost implications, a less frequent fault greater cost implications.
Applying a weighting factor would ensure that cost (for example) would
then dictate the vital few.

Steps to completing a Pareto

Data collection

Data for a Pareto should be collected over a long period of time. This
allows the real problems to surface.

Much of the information required may already exist as historical data.

Use of this will save both time and cost.

A Tally Chart, as used earlier is an ideal method of collating this data.

Subframe weld faults (visual defects)
CLASS

TALLY

FREQUENCY

MISSED
WELD

IIII IIII IIII IIII IIII

25

OMITTED
WELD
POROSITY
UNDERCUT
COLD
LAPPING

IIII IIII IIII IIII

20

45

45%

IIII IIII IIII II

IIII IIII III
IIII III

17
13
8

62
75
83

62%
75%
83%

34

CUMULATIVE CUMULATIVE
FREQUENCY
%
25
25%

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WELD SIZE
WELD
LENGTH
LEG
LENGTH

PROBLEM SOLVING

IIII II
IIII

7
5

90
95

90%
95%

IIII

100

100%

Title

The Pareto should have a title stating clearly and concisely what is
represented by the diagram.

Decide upon the type of Pareto

Pareto diagrams fall into three categories

1)

Frequency: - Display just the actual count (or frequency) of the

problems

2)

Percentage: - Displays each problem as a percentage of the total

3)

Weighted: - Displays frequency multiplied by weighting factor

(i.e. cost or time)

Axis

The x-axis (horizontal scale) must be labelled with concerns or titles of

data blocks.

The y-axis must be labelled in incremental values which reflect the type
of Pareto used. (i.e. weighted, percentage, frequency) if frequency is
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PROBLEM SOLVING

used the scale must be larger than the sum total of all the results to allow
for the total cumulative line to be plotted.

Data

Arrange the results in descending order beginning with the largest amount
first and draw a vertical bar representing this value on the diagram. Draw
a point above each bar to represent the cumulative value of each result.

Subframe weld line visual defects

100
90
80

Cumulative %

70
60
50
40
30
20

LEG LENGTH

WELD SIZE

WELD LENGTH

36

COLD LAPPING

UNDERCUT

POROSITY

OMITTED
WELD

10
MISSED WELD

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PROBLEM SOLVING

Once the areas of greatest concern have been identified, a plan to address
these should be generated.

To summarise the main advantages of a Pareto analysis are:

It arranges faults in order of importance. This is particularly
important if many different faults are present
Helps to identify the vital few very important to assist in the
prioritisation of problem solving
Helps to focus attention on the important issues
FAULTS

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PROBLEM SOLVING

Scatter Diagrams

A Scatter Diagram is a visual method of comparing to variables to

determine if any link exists between them and if so how strong this link
is. One common use for this tool is to establish if a link exists between
two variables as suggested by a Cause and Effect Analysis.

In a Scatter Diagram both elements must be variables, as discussed

earlier.

To create a Scatter Diagram, many readings are required, it is fair to say

the more readings used, the more conclusive the result.

Axis

A Scatter Diagram has two axis, x and y. Each variable must be assigned
an axis and the axis divided into increments appropriate to the
measurement used (i.e. C or mm etc.)

To complete a Scatter Diagram simply plot a single point relative to each

reading.

To prove a relationship between variables we are looking for a trend or

pattern. The closer this is to a straight line the stronger the link. Using a
line of best fit between the results we can see if any correlation exists.
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Essentially there are three types of correlation:

Positive Correlation: - As one variable increases so does the other
Negative Correlation: - As one variable increases the other decreases
Zero Correlation: - No link between variables

Below are examples of each:

Home Time
5.00am
4.00am

3.00am

2.00am

1.00am

12.00am

11.00pm

10.00pm
9.00pm

x
x

FINE

OK

A BIT
A BIT
POORLY I THINK ILL
SEEDY ROUGH
ILL STAY NEVER
IN BED
DRINK
AGAIN

ILL DIE
SOON AND
IT WILL SOON
BE OVER

Severity of Hangover
Positive correlation: - As the hour of home time increases so does the
severity of the hangover the next day.

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Age of machine (months)

72

66

60

54

48

42

36

30

24

18

12

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

Overall efficiency

Negative Correlation: - As the age of the machine increases, so its

efficiency decreases.
Amount spent on lottery
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

x
x

x
x

x
x
x
x
x
x
0

10
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
Amount won on lottery
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PROBLEM SOLVING

Zero Correlation: - The amount of money won on the lottery has no

relationship with the amount of money spent on tickets

The main advantage of Scatter Diagrams are that they can quickly prove
or disprove theories on Cause and Effect.

They can also be used (by applying line of best fit) to predict other
results.

It would be fair to say that if a link can be proven between variables then
controlling one would in effect control both.

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Cause and Effect Diagrams

The Cause and Effect diagram was developed by Dr Kaoru Ishikawa in
the 1950s. It is often called an Ishikawa diagram or fishbone diagram.

A Cause and Effect diagram can be used to solve any problem. This tool
graphically illustrates the relationship between a specific effect and its
corresponding causes.

Performing a Cause and Effect analysis is best done in a team approach.

To perform a Cause and Effect analysis

Form a team. Ideally the skills of the team should reflect the
concern being analysed (it may be as a result of a Pareto analysis)
A leader should be appointed. He should clarify the issue to be
discussed, to ensure everyone is focused on the same concern.
A large fishbone diagram should be drawn on a white board or
similar with the concern of effect written on the right hand side of
the diagram
The analysis will now take the form of a brainstorming exercise all
team members should contribute as many ideas as possible, no
matter how odd the idea may seem. In this exercise there is no
such thing as a bad idea.
These ideas must be recorded on the diagram in a logical manner.
The sources of variation discussed earlier are a good starting point.

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This will result in the following diagram:

MEASUREMENT

MACHINE

ENVIRONMENT

EFFECT

MATERIALS

MANPOWER

METHOD

The team should analyse the diagram and decide upon which causes
are the most important. If countermeasures can be implemented, and
if they would be cost effective

Upon completion of this exercise solutions to these problems must be

decided upon and implemented. It is worth noting that many causes may
be interrelated, a Scatter Diagram is a useful tool to confirm or disprove
relationships between causes.

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MATERIALS

BATTERY LOW/FLAT

DIRTY PETROL

NO OIL

NO PETROL

OIL LIGHT

BATTERY LIGHT

FUEL GAUGE

MEASUREMENT

ENVIRONMENT

THROTTLE

METHOD

LAZY DID NOT TURN KEY

CHOKE

WRONG METHOD

DID NOT SERVICE CAR

STARTER MOTOR BROKEN

CAR IN GEAR

DID NOT TURN KEY

TOO MUCH CHOICE

(FLOODED ENGINE)

PRESSED ACCELERATOR

START

WILL
NOT

CAR

VERY DUSTY

TOO HOT

TOO COLD

TOO WET

SPARK PLUGS/ELECTRICS WET

RADIATOR FROZEN

CARBURETOR BLOCKED

ALTERNATOR BROKEN

MANPOWER

MACHINE

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