The Ichimoku Trader

www.ichimokutrade.com
EII Capital

October 4th, 2015

Volume 1, No. 6

On the Sidelines
IN THIS ISSUE
On the Sidelines........................................1
Global Market Update.............................2

US Stock Market, VIX

Volatility Index, Crude Oil,

Gold, Germany, Japan, China,
Greece
Multi-Timeframe Email Alerts.................5
Seasonal Trades........................................6

October Pick

October Statistical

Sector Updates.........................................7
Futures Updates........................................8
Trading Psychology.................................9
Creating Black Boxes

You Think You Are So Right But

You Are So Wrong

Email for Information:

info@eiicapital.com
Follow Us On Twitter!
@ichimokutrading

hile watching college football this weekend

during the broadcast the sidelines reporter
made a few comments about what the Alabama team
was doing for players in between drives and plays.
They had oxygen tanks for their players to inhale for
faster recovery. This is not something new to professional football and has been around for decades but
it is definitely novel to NCAA level competition. I did
a little research into the science of this practice. The
effectiveness is debated with some biochemists acknowledging that blood oxygen saturation may be
improved by a mere 1 to 2 percent using this tactic. Is
such a small difference actually effective or worth the
planning and cost?

That game in particular was defined by what
the announcers claimed what the heaviest rain they
could remember during a game. The Alabama team
staff were busy on the sidelines tending to the players
cleats ensuring they were clean before the players returned to the water soaked field. How much did these
small attentions to detail outside the game itself contribute to Alabamas 38-10 victory?

Something that is not allowed in NCAA competition but I see often in the NFL is quarterbacks receiving up to the minute printouts of the defensive formations for them to review between series. Such research
can enable the quarterbacks to get a high level view of
not just what they are up against each play but how
their opponents react and change to different maneuvers attempted as the game progresses.

During the press conferences after victories the
players and coaches attribute their success to the skill
and acumen of each other during the game. I think
the preparation and these small technical details performed during the game may be overlooked because
they seem so insignificant. However, if they were truly
Page 1

insignificant I doubt teams would waste the effort in

performing them consistently. It is more likely that all
these little enhancements to physical, technical, and
psychological performance are well known to add up
to that winning edge.

I can relate all of these points back to trading.
Preparing ones self through physical excercise before
the trading day can set your body and mind at ease
and capable of handling the potential stress of a volFigure 1: eSignal Ichimoku Monthly chart of
atile market. It means making sure your tools of
E-Mini SP500 Futures
analysis such as patterns you recognize in your indicators are clean and sharp. Finally, taking the time
to review your actions and that of the market with Figure 2 shows the Weekly chart of the E-Mini SP500
screenshots and trade logs will give you the perspec- futures. January 2012 was the last time price was below the cloud. Even though the sentiment is bearish,
tive you need to stay one step ahead.
a bearish trend still has not taken place. The month-Wes Bennett ly support at 1882 is stopping the bearish trend. As
long as the monthly support holds, the pull back to
this support is still a major pull back for the bullish
trend. The resistance at 1978 has to be broken for the
You can observe a lot by just watching
-Yogi Berra
sentiment to go bullish.

Global Market Update

t is clear that Volatility is here to stay! Markets are

moving up and down but they are swinging in huge
values. A lot of investors are worried taking positions
long term due to all the volatility. The key is not panic, examine the charts and follow your trading plan.
Here is the Global market update:

US Stock Market
For the US Stock Market, we will analyze various instruments to give us a complete picture. The first
instrument we will analyze is the E-Mini SP500 Futures. Figure 1 shows the monthly Ichimoku chart for
E-mini SP500 futures. Since October 2011, price has
not touched the monthly 26 bar support. Now, it has
touched it a couple of times to a point the green line
support is flat. This is indicating that the support is
getting stronger and stronger. The support at 1882
is controlling whether the E-mini SP500 futures will
enter a major pull back or not. If it breaks, it will enter
the first major pull back since 2011. In order for the
bullish trend to continue, the resistance at 1978 has
to be broken.
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Figure 2: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of

E-Mini SP500 Futures
Figure 3 shows the CBOE Market Volatility Index. It
has an inverse relationship with the US Stock market.
If the market goes up, the $VIX goes down and vice
versa. We have been using the $VIX in conjunction
with the E-mini SP500 to give us early indication on
market direction. Since the beginning of this year,
we have been posting the $VIX chart on Twitter and
determining the market direction on a weekly basis
for day-trading/swing trading. The main level that
has been critical throughout the year has been 20.73.
Initially, it was the top of the consolidation pattern resistance. However, this level is a major support now.
The new resistance is 32.13. Until we break this support, there is still a high probability for price to move
up the resistance of 32.13 to follow the consolidation
pattern.


This is a gauge we monitor on a weekly basis.
Please note, during the week, price can go above and
below the support/resistances. The key is where it
closes by end of the week.

Figure 5: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of

Crude Oil Futures
Figure 6 shows the Daily Ichimoku Chart for Crude
Oil Futures. The daily shows a miniature consolidaFigure 3: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of
tion pattern compared to the weekly timeframe. It is
$VIX Futures
ranging between 43.48 and 46.93. Due to the volatility, we have to observe where price closes in relationThe weekly time frame is at a major support. There- ship to the red line resistance. Every day, the red line
fore, we are going to watch the daily time frame to resistance has been holding. Price is in the cloud so
help determine if that support can be broken. Figure crude oil will remain very volatile.
4 shows the daily chart for the $VIX. The sentiment in
the last 3 days has finally gone bearish. However, the
weekly support is stopping the bearish trend for now.
Probabilities are high to break the support right now.
The longer it takes to break the support, the lower the
probabilities will become to break it.

Figure 6: eSignal Ichimoku Daily chart of

Crude Oil Futures

Gold
Figure 4: eSignal Ichimoku Daily chart of
$VIX Futures

A lot of people analyze Gold in order to determine

what is going on with the fundamental side of the
markets. Figure 7 shows the Weekly Ichimoku Chart
for Gold Futures. Gold is in a bearish trend. HowevCrude Oil
er, it is starting to show some weakness. Price should
have started to retest the last low of 1080 but inFigure 5 shows the Weekly Ichimoku Chart for Crude stead price is retesting the major resistance of 1151.
Oil Futures. We have been posting this chart for If the resistance of 1151 is broken, then Gold will go
weeks now on Twitter. Crude Oil is basically in a bear- through a major pull back trying to get to the bottom
ish consolidation pattern between 50.17 and 43.54. of the cloud.
The trend is still bearish. If the resistance at 50.17 is
broken then crude oil will undergo the first major bull
pull back after starting the bearish trend. If the support is broken, the bearish trend will resume.
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pattern or start a bearish trend. The resistance it has

to break is 19173 in order to retest the. There is high
probability that the Japan stock market will continue
to consolidate holding the support at 17071.

Figure 7: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of

Gold Futures

Germany
Figure 8 shows the weekly Ichimoku chart for the German Stock Market Index. Since our last monthly update, nothing really has changed. The German stock
market is still consolidating between 10378 and 9217.
The sentiment is bearish but this is still the major pull
back for the bullish trend from the beginning of this
year. If we break the support at 9217, this major pull
back will turn into a bearish trend. The more that
price consolidates, the higher the probability that the
support will be broken.

Figure 9: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of

Japan Nikkei Stock Market

China
Figure 10 shows the weekly Ichimoku chart for the
Chinese Stock Index. The Chinese stock market is
holding the support of 3186 outlined in the last
newsletter. In 2014, the Chinese stock market started
a major trend where price doubled! June this year, it
started a major pull back. The major pull back support is 3186. If it breaks this support then the bullish trend will be officially over. Next week is going
to be a very critical week. Will price climb the cloud
up maintaining a neutral weekly sentiment or will the
sentiment change to be bearish?

Figure 8: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of

Germany DAX Stock Market

Japan
Figure 10: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of
China Stock Market

Figure 9 shows the Weekly Ichimoku chart for the Japan Nikkei Stock Index. Nothing has really changed
since our last monthly update. The Japanese stock
market is undergoing a major pull back. The major
Greece
pull back support is 17071. If this support breaks,
then the bullish trend will be officially over and then
the market will enter either a major consolidation Figure 11 shows the weekly Ichimoku chart for the
Greece Stock Index. The Greece Stock market has
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been in a bearish trend since September of 2014.

The minor pull back occurred this month but it didnt
even reach the resistance of 1110.34. Therefore the
bearish trend is still very strong. There is high probability of retesting the support at 854. If we break that
support, the next major support is 677.

Figure 1: Ichimokutrade.com 7 TF Buy/Sell Alert for

AUDJPY

Figure 11: eSignal Ichimoku Weekly chart of

Greece Stock Market

The years teach much which the days never know

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

Figure 2: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku 120m chart of

AUDJPY

Multi-Timeframe Email
Alerts

Next is EUR/CAD. Figure 3 shows the MTF email alert

that occured in oin 9/17/2015 in conjunction with the
EUR/NZD currency pair. In Figure 4 the 60m chart you
can see that price had a bullish move up to create the
bullish alerts on the multiple timeframes. However,
want to show you how the 7x email alert can also
price soon crossed below the Kijun-Sen to create a
be used to find trend reversals. 7x email alerts are
trend failure and thus a signal failure. Price then regreat because there is a high probability of a trend
versed as traders began hitting stops and going the
starting. But what happens when the trend does not
other way.This was followed by a break out of the
start? Is the high probability trade over? Yes and no.
Ichimoku cloud which could have been played bearYes the trend failed but there is also high probability
ish by a Kijun-Sen pullback shortly after.
for a trend reversal. Everyone was thinking one way
then it stops and can turn hard the other way. For the
month of sept there were a few 7x email alerts for currencies. And a good hand full were good examples of
a trend failing then reversing. Lets take a look at a few
of these examples.

First we have a demonstration of using a MTF
email alert failure for AUDJPY. In Figure 1 you can see
the email alert received on 9/3/2015. Figure 2 shows
the chart of the 120 minute timeframe marked with
the time of the email when it was received. Shortly
after the bearish signal price pulled back to the Kijun
Sen and continued the bearish trend. One could take
Figure 3: Ichimokutrade.com 7 TF Buy/Sell Alert for
a pull back to enter a low risk trade in the direction of
EURCAD and EURNZD
the alert.

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Figure 4: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku 60m chart of

EURCAD
Our final example is CADJPY. In Figure 5 we received
a bearish MTF alert signal on 9/15/2015. In Figure 6
on the 60m chart you can see the trend fail by a cross
of the Kijun Sen and then break out of the Ichimoku
cloud in a bullish direction.

I would recommend backtesting a few yourself. Take

some live trades in a practice account untill you can
see the trend failure for yourself. The email alerts are
a great tool to find high probability trades. Now you
can also look for high probability failures. If you like,
we could continue this conversation one on one with
a 30 minute help session with me if you feel you have
a few more question about how to use and set up
email alerts. Email me at mcolquitt@ichimokutrade.
com.
-Michael Colquitt
I hate to be wrong. That has aborted many a tempting
error, but not all of them.
But I hate much more to stay wrong.
-Paul. A Samuelson

Seasonal Trades

O
Figure 5 Ichimokutrade.com 7 TF Buy/Sell Alert for
CADJPY

Figure 6: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku 60m chart of

CADJPY

ctober is typically a volatile month for the markets. We have seen some of the largest swings
occur in this month. The 1929, 1987, and 2008 crashes
all occurred in the month of October. Those were just
the big crashes, there have been many mini crashes
in the month also. Despite all the doom and gloom
that has occurred in October, the Stock Traders Almanac refers to the month as the bear killer because in
this month, 12 post-WWII bear markets have turned
around. The month also marks the end of the worst
six months of the year strategy.
As we mentioned in our last newsletter, the markets
typically follow a seasonal bearish pattern from September 20th - October 10th. This has happened in 6
out the last 10 years including the last 4 years straight
and the massive 30%+ drop in 2008. So essentially
if this craziness is going to end, it should do so by
mid-October. Will October be the springboard that
kickstarts the markets? If by the end of October we
do not break the 1982.50 level on the E-Mini S&P 500
Futures, that could mean more pain for the markets.

One of the things I notice with most new traders

is their bias to be glued to one direction. They get
stopped out and dont think to look for signs to go
October Pick
the other way. The great thing about trading is you
can trade the market up and down. The important
Our pick for October is Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL). As
part is to keep risk low and not go on that rollercoastseen below in Figure 1, (DAL) needs to hold the key
er ride. You can use this method for any instrument.
Page 6

Sector Updates

support level of $41.46. When the markets took a

nosedive on August 24th, (DAL) gapped down over
20% to $34.61. Within minutes the stock began to
he markets have provided many investors and
recover and by the end of the day, closed above the
traders headaches over the past 6-8 weeks. Large
previous days close. This was a strong indication of
swings
across many indices show the increase in voljust how bullish this stock was.
atility making it challenging to find and enter new
opportunities. We at Ichimokutrade continue to
leverage the Ichimoku cloud indicator as part of our
analysis due to its ability to provide direction along
with boundary conditions to watch.

We now enter the 4th quarter of 2015 which
is known as the festive season with the arrival of numerous holidays and the end of another year. Traders often are on the lookout for what is known as the
Christmas rally. That being said, we decided to proFigure 1: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku Weekly chart of
vide an update on the sectors that are on our watchDAL Stock
list to take advantage of a potential rally. Once we are
Since this month is a volatile month, we will be look- able to confirm a sector is breaking a boundary coning at a quarterly seasonal play rather than a monthly dition which could trigger a move to the next boundplay. The seasonal for (DAL) begins on October 7th ary, we can scan for specific stocks to enter. Here is a
and ends on December 31st. Over the last 7 years, summary of all the sectors:

the stock has moved an average of 30.6% with a maximum move of 110.2% and a max drawdown of 18.1%.
Ideally we would like to see a pullback to the $41.46
level, which is a multi-time frame Ichimoku level. If
that level holds, the stock will retest the previous high
of 51.06. If the markets have cleared the resistances by then, we will break the high by the end of the
quarter. As always, these dates and moves are not set
in stone and are the average of the data from the last
7 years. You have to use your technical/fundamental
analysis in combination with the seasonal to get the We begin with the top 3 bullish sectors being the
Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Healthcare (XLV) and
maximum benefit.
Technology (XLK). Below are the weekly charts and
key levels respectively. In Figure 1 XLY continues to
October Statistical
hold the key multiple time frame support of 73.29.
Despite going below the level during the week, price
Opportunities
was able to close above this level for the month as
well indicating its bullish potential. Although we may
seem some consolidation for the next little bit, this
sector may provide great opportunities for the upcoming quarter. Figure 2, XLV and Figure 3, XLK round
up the top 3 list but remain weaker given the neutral
sentiment on the weekly with price within the cloud.

-Hiren Patel

Page 7

Figure 1: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku Weekly chart of

XLY

Figure 4: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku Weekly chart of

XLP

Figure 2: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku Weekly chart of

XLV

Figure 5: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku Weekly chart of

XLF
The remaining sectors including Industrials (XLI), Telecom (XTL), Utilities (XLU), Materials (XLB) and Energy
(XLE) continue to hold a bearish bias. Check out our
blog for a detailed view on all the sectors. Whichever
way the market decides to move this 4th quarter, we
hope you can be prepared to take advantage of it. After all, success occurs when preparation and opportunity meet and the financial markets are no different.

Figure 3: TDAmeritrade Ichimoku Weekly chart of

XLK
Below are the weekly charts for Consumer Staples
(XLP), Financials (XLF). In Figure 4, XLP was able to
close above the key level of 47.33 for the 2nd week
in a row despite retesting the support of 46.53 on an
intra-week basis however the monthly was unable to
close above it. Probabilities continue to remain on the
bullish side until price closes below the 46.53 level.
In Figure 5, XLF bounced off the multiple timeframe
support of 22.07 with the monthly closing above this
level. Despite this, we still need further confirmation
before this sector can begin a move one way or another.

Page 8

-Pranav Khattar

Futures Updates
Take Control of Your Future

or many of us, trading is a tool to reach the elusive

goal of financial freedom; however, most are only
ever chasing it with little to no success. It is clear that
the average retail trader knows not much more than
to invest in stocks, however there is an abundance of
options available. One such option is to trade a derivative product such as a Futures contract. By incorporating Futures into your portfolio, you will diversify your exposure and take a step closer to achieving
your goals.


The purpose of the associated research article
is to outline the long-term and short-term outlook on
some of the most actively traded futures contracts.
The research was conducted using purely technical
analysis. The analysis looked at the Monthly, Weekly,
and Daily time frames. The monthly time frame provides a 2 to 5 year projection; the weekly time frame
provides a 6 month to 2 year projection; the daily
time frame provides a 1 to 6 month projection. Full
Research Article:
https://www.ichimokutrade.com/c/uncategorized/update-take-control-of-your-future

a point where they are consistently successful. Why?

The major reason is they are trading with their emotions, instead of trading with a plan or system. Lets
analyze the process of creating a black box solution
compared to regular retail trader.
In creating a black box solution, here is the step-bystep process:

1. Determine a foundation strategy that is successful. The foundation strategy is a simple strategy
that does not have a lot of rules. It has a lot of
trades but has at least the following minimum
characteristics:
a. 50% or higher win/loss ratio
b. 1:1 or higher reward/risk ratio
c. Lots of trades
d. Minimum backtest time of 10 years
2. Analyze the losing trades of the backtest results to
determine ONE rule that can be applied to reduce
the number of losing trades but keep the winning
trades.
3. Backtest everything with the addition of the new
rule.
4.
Repeat the provess of analysis and backtest until
-Zeeshan Ahmed
you get a reward/risk of 3:1 or higher and a win/
loss ratio of 75% or higher. If all efforts are exhausted and you cannot see these results then a
I hate to be wrong. That has aborted many a tempting
error, but not all of them.
new foundation strategy has to be found.
But I hate much more to stay wrong.
5. If the results are acheived, the strategy has to be
-Paul. A Samuelson
tested for various instruments and various timeframes to make sure you did not curve fit to one
instrument and one timeframe.
6. If Step #5 passes, now the strategy is ready to be
coded up in a programming language and executed.
Creating Black Boxes
7. Observer the slippage and trade commissions
during live trading. With these factors, the strategy should be able to maintain a 3:1 reward/risk
ow many times have you thought you had the
ratio over a certain time period.
perfect setup where you knew you were correct? Then all of a sudden, you are wrong! When
this happens, what do you think? What do you do? This is the process that an institution has to undergo
What is your confidence level on the next trade? Do in order to create a successful automated strategy. It
you question your strategy? Do you question your is a long tedious process but once it has been done
thought process? What happens if this occurs on successful, it is well worth it.
the next trade too? Has this happened to you? If
so, how many times? What did you do when it ocYou Think You Are So Right but
curred? Did you get emotional or did you move into
You Are So Wrong!
the next trade without that trade influencing your
thought process? 90% of retail traders never get to

Trading Psychology

Page 9

ow, lets analyze a retail trader and see what hap- long as this resistance holds. Would you agree?
pens. I will take a real live example of the trade
with Visa that took place this last week. We will examine various time frames to captures the various
types of traders that exist i.e. day, swing, long term,
etc.
Figure 1 shows the eSignal chart for Visa on 240m
timeframe. If a trader observes price action, they notice that a big bearish pike occurred and then price
tried to go bullish when it went above the cloud. However, it consolidated above the cloud. After a while of
consolidation, broke the bottom of the consolidation
and closed below the cloud. When it closed below
the cloud, the sentiment changed to bearish. Now,
it is undergoing a pull back to the major resistance
of 69.85 which is the Ichimoku Green resistance of 26
bars. Price hit the resistance at 69.85 but closed right
at the Ichimoku 9 bar resistance of 69.27. The traders thought process is that the resistance should hold
and price should start to move downward to start a
bearish trend. Would you agree?

Figure 2: eSignal Ichimoku 60m chart of

VISA Stock
Figure 3 shows the 30m eSignal chart of Visa. If a
trader observes the price action, they will notice a
bearish trend that started from a break of a consolidation pattern. It went through a major pull back
to the resistance of 69.27 and held. The 69.27 was
a future resistance since it was not directly above
price. This test of the resistance at 69.27 was a major pull back because price was still below the cloud.
After testing this resistance, it consolidated and now
we have a direct resistance of 69.27 which is the top
of the cloud. This was now indicating that the resistance was strong compared to before, and price
should start to move down to try to retest the pivot
low. Would you agree?

Figure 1: eSignal Ichimoku 240m chart of

VISA Stock
Figure 2 is the 60m eSignal chart for Visa. If you observe the price action on this time frame, you will notice a consolidation pattern around the cloud where
sentiment kept on going bullish and then bearish
and back and forth. Later, it broke the bottom of the
consolidation pattern and started a bearish trend.
It was a powerful bearish trend since it trended for
a couple of bars. Now, it had gone through a pull
back. The pullback occurred to the Ichimoku green
resistance for 26 bars which is also the bottom of the
consolidation pattern. In order for the bearish trend
to continue, this resistance has to hold. Price after
reaching this resistance, decided to consolidate with
this resistance as the top of the consolidation. The
probabilities are still high for to retest the pivot low as
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Figure 3: eSignal Ichimoku 30m chart of

VISA Stock
Based on the 240m, 60m, and the 30m, this trade
looked like a high probability to go down now because the resistance level for all three timeframes was
bearish. The day traders and the swing traders were
thinking the same way. In a retail traders mind, this
looked like a trade they cant lose. However, they
did! Why? The retail trader would not even bother
to find out why they lost because they would be really upset. They entered the trade with the idea that

they were correct. When the trade failed, they felt

like they got defeated which brought on emotions.
If they werent trading with emotions they would examine why they lost and try to fix it for future trades.
Here was the problem with the trade. Figure 4 shows
the eSignal Daily time frame for Visa. Notice price
is above the cloud. The daily time frame and a sentiment were bullish. Therefore, they should NOT be
looking for bearish setup, since they would be going
against the higher time frames. Why didnt the retail
trader analyze the Daily time frame? Well, most retail
traders dont trade in the direction of the higher time
frame because it keeps them out of a lot of trades.
Most retail traders think about the number of trades
instead of quality. They view the higher the number
of trades they enter, the better the chance they have.
This is why retail traders evaluate a system based on
win lost ratio instead of reward/risk ratio. How many
webinars have you been on where they talk about a
great win/loss ratio but the reward/risk is 1:1 or less
(inverted reward/risk)?

Figure 4: eSignal Ichimoku D chart of

VISA Stock
In conclusion, you should never think Im definitely
going to be right with this trade because that is an
emotion. You may win occasionally but you just got
rewarded for a mistake. Sooner or later, that mistake
will turn into a habit and you will continuously keep
on losing. We are here for trade for life not for a few
months!
-Manesh Patel

Thank You for reading! Please look forward

to our next newsletter November 1st, 2015!
To subscribe email request to:
info@eiicapital.com
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