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United Nations said it is gravely concerned for the safety of about 1.5 million civilians trapped in
Mosul as the offensive to retake the city from Islamic State terrorists began. The U.N.'s top
humanitarian relief official warned in a statement Sunday night that the organization didn't have
sufficient funds to prepare fully for 'the worst-case scenario' of an estimated one million displaced
people. The U.N. said it is working with partner organizations to set up shelter with the capacity of
housing 600,000 people."
THE 2016 EQUATION -- HOW THE MOSUL SIEGE COULD HELP TRUMP, our colleague Nahal
Toosi examines how the offensive could play out in the final days of the presidential race: "The new
military offensive against the Islamic State in the Iraqi city of Mosul has injected a risky and
unpredictable dimension into the final stretch of the U.S. presidential race, including the prospect of
retaliatory attacks that could embolden Donald Trump's struggling campaign. U.S. officials insist the
2016 election isn't a driving factor in their military strategy against the Islamic State terrorist
network.
"They acknowledge, however, that if ISIL loses a prize such as Mosul, where roughly 1.5 million
civilians still live, it could prompt it to call for attacks by ISIL-trained fighters or lone-wolf
sympathizers in the U.S. or Europe. 'Unlike your father's terrorist group, they tend to strike out after
they are hit, usually within a few weeks,' an Obama administration official who works on homeland
security programs told POLITICO on Monday."
DEPARTMENT OF GOOD TIMING -- DUNFORD HOSTS COUNTERING EXTREMISM
CONFERENCE: Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joe Dunford hosted top military officials from 43
countries at Joint Base Andrews on Monday for a conference on countering violent extremist
organizations. The conference readout didn't get into much detail, but we can bet the Mosul
operation was a prime topic of conversation. A full list of the attending countries is here.
HAPPY TUESDAY AND WELCOME TO MORNING DEFENSE, where we're always on the lookout for
tips, pitches and feedback. Email us at jherb@politico.com, and follow on Twitter @jeremyherb,
@morningdefense and @politicopro.
HAPPENING TODAY -- THINK TANKS AND DEFENSE STRATEGY: Analysts from five think tanks -the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, the American Enterprise Institute, the Cato
Institute, the Center for a New American Security and the Center for Strategic and International
Studies -- are unveiling their alternative defense strategies at an event hosted by CSBA this morning.
The teams were able to choose from 1200 options to add or subtract from the defense budget into
the next decade. We're told some common themes include favoring stealthy bombers and investing
in undersea capabilities, short-range fires and short- and-medium-range missile defense.
ALSO TODAY: CSIS hosts a panel discussion on using public-private partnerships to invest in
defense infrastructure with former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig. Southern Command chief Adm.
Kurt Tidd discusses maritime security at a separate event. Former CIA Director retired Gen. Michael
Hayden is among the speakers at a Heritage Foundation discussion on cybersecurity in the next
administration. And Defense Daily holds its annual Open Architecture Summit.
TOP TALKER -- CARTWRIGHT PLEADS GUILTY OF LYING TO FBI IN LEAK INVESTIGATION,
reports our colleagues Josh Gerstein and Connor O'Brien: "The Obama administration's drive to stem
leaks of national secrets has netted the most serious conviction of a high-ranking government official
in nearly a decade: a guilty plea by a former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to a felony
charge of lying to investigators probing leaks about U.S. efforts to disrupt Iran's nuclear program.
"Retired Marine Gen. James Cartwright appeared in federal court in Washington on Monday
afternoon, speaking in a low voice as U.S. District Court Judge Richard Leon accepted the former
four-star general's admission that he lied to FBI agents about his contacts with New York Times
reporter David Sanger and former Newsweek reporter Daniel Klaidman."
WAR REPORT, YEMEN EDITION -- CEASE-FIRE ANNOUNCED IN YEMEN, via Reuters: "A 72-hour
ceasefire in Yemen is due to start on Wednesday night, the U.N. envoy for Yemen said on Monday
after he received commitments from all of the country's warring factions. U.N. Special Envoy for
Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed said the cessation of hostilities would begin at 11:59 p.m. local
time on Wednesday and could be renewed after the initial three-day period, the United Nations said
in statement."
-- IN AFGHANISTAN, TALIBAN RESTART SECRET TALKS, reports The Guardian's Jon Boone and
Sune Engel Rasmussen: "The Taliban and representatives of the Afghan government have restarted
secret talks in the Gulf state of Qatar, senior sources within the insurgency and the Kabul
government have told the Guardian. Among those present at the meetings held in September and
October was Mullah Abdul Manan Akhund, brother of Mullah Omar, the former Taliban chief who
led the movement from its earliest days until his death in 2013.
"The two rounds of talks are the first known negotiations to have taken place since a Pakistanbrokered process entirely broke down following the death in a US drone strike of Omar's successor,
Mullah Akhtar Mansoor."
'GUANTANAMO DIARY' DETAINEE TRANSFERRED: The Pentagon on Monday announced the latest
detainee transfer out of the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, sending Mohamedou
Ould Slahi to Mauritania. Slahi, who is from Mauritania, was the author of "Guantanamo Diary," a
memoir he wrote while imprisoned. The transfer to Mauritania reduces the Guantanamo detainee
population to 60, down from more than 100 at the start of the year. Of those remaining, 19 have
been cleared for release, and we expect to see additional transfers in the coming weeks as the
Obama presidency winds down.
DOCUMENT DRAWER -- 70 LAWMAKERS PUSH FOR MORE F-35s: A bipartisan bloc of 70
lawmakers is urging key members of the House Appropriations Committee to support buying more
F-35 Joint Strike Fighters than requested by the Pentagon in a full-year defense spending bill. In a
letter to House defense appropriations leaders, the 70 House members called for stepped up
acquisition at a "critical juncture for the program." The lawmakers urged appropriators to support
the 11 additional F-35s funded in the House-passed appropriations bill -- for a total of 74 fighters -as well as an additional $100 million in advance procurement funding for the program proposed in
the Senate defense spending bill.
The letter was spearheaded by Reps. Kay Granger (R-Texas) and John Larson (D-Conn.), who cochair the House Joint Strike Fighter Caucus. Granger's Fort Worth-based district is home to
Lockheed Martin's F-35 factory, and Larson's district is home to contractor Pratt & Whitney, which
produces the F-35 engines.
2016 WATCH -- TRUMAN PROJECT LOOKS TO ADVENTURISM TO KNOCK TRUMP: The liberal
foreign policy advocacy group the Truman National Security Project is launching a game of sorts
today designed to take aim at Donald Trump's foreign policy. The group is releasing a "Choose Your
Own Trumpventure" website that's a vehicle used to criticize Trump on the Middle East, trade,
Russia and more.
SPEED READ
-- North Korea's aggressive testing schedule could see its intermediate ballistic missile become
operational next year, according to a leading U.S. expert: Reuters
-- U.S.-led coalition warplanes kill 20 Islamic State fighters in Syria over the past 24 hours according
to the Turkish military: Reuters
-- Mosul's Twitter war: POLITICO Pro
-- Hard-liners in Iran release a video showing a detained American businessman: AP
-- The Russian state-sponsored broadcast network Russia Today says it's British bank accounts have
been closed: USA Today
-- WikiLeaks claims a "state party" cut the internet connection of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange:
POLITICO
-- Armed brigades have taken over parts of Tripoli, challenging the U.N.-backed government:
Reuters
-- A British court rules that British security agencies have been secretly and unlawfully collecting
personal data: The Guardian
-- The Navy has released a timeline for its Enlisting Ratings Modernization plan: Stars and Stripes
-- The veterans' group Got Your 6 is trying to encourage people to thank veterans by voting: Military
Times
-- Inside Sen. Kelly Ayotte's fight for survival in New Hampshire: POLITICO
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Politico Magazine
What If the Newspaper Industry Made a Colossal Mistake?
By Jack Shafer