STATISTICS 13

Lecture 22
May 21, 2010
Review
 Point estimation
 Estimator
 Standard error
 Margin of error
 Interval estimation
 Confidence intervals
 Mean and proportion
 Difference between Two
Means
 Goal: compare the means of two populations
 are they different?

 if yes, how much?

 Data for this comparison

 a random sample of size n1 from population A with

mean μ1 and variance σ12

 a random sample of size n2 from population B with

mean μ2 and variance σ22

 Estimating the Difference
between Two Means

 “Natural” point estimate : difference of the two

sample means
x1 − x2
 Need to know about the sampling distribution of
the difference of sample means
 Sampling Distribution of the
Difference between Two Sample
Means

1. The mean of x1 − x2 is µ1 − µ 2 = the difference in

the population means, that is x1 − x2 is an unbiased estimator of µ1 − µ 2 .
σ 12 σ 22
2. The standard deviation of x1 − x2 is SE = + .
n1 n2
3. If the sample sizes n1 and n 2 are large, the sampling distributi on
of x1 − x2 is approximat ely normal (by CLT) with mean µ1 − µ 2 , and SE estimated by
s12 s22
SE = + .
n1 n2
 Confidence Intervals for μ1 - μ2
 One can use the CLT to get the 100(1-α)%
confidence interval for μ1 - μ2 as follows :

100(1 - α )% Confidence interval for µ1 - µ2 :

s12 s22
( x1 − x2 ) ± zα / 2 +
n1 n2
 Example: the Leisure Interest
Checklist (LIC)
 In assessing students’ leisure interests Boys Girls

and stress ratings, researchers tested

559 high school students using the LIC Factor Scale
Activity
Mean SD Mean SD

leisure interest checklist (LIC) Hobbies 10.06 6.47 13.64 7.46

inventory. The means and standard Social fun 22.05 5.12 25.96 5.07
deviations for each of the seven LIC Sports 13.65 4.82 9.88 4.41

factor scales are given in the following Cultural 11.48 5.69 13.21 5.31

table for both boys (252) and girls Trips 6.90 3.41 6.49 2.97

(307) Games 4.95 3.29 3.85 2.49

Question: Find a 95% confidence Church 2.15 2.10 3.00 2.26


interval for the mean difference
between boys and girls for the cultural
factor scale activity.
 Interpretation of the Confidence
Interval

 Any significant differences between boys and girls in

cultural factor activity scores?
 Observe that “no difference” means μ1-μ2 =0

 In the above example, 0 is NOT IN the 95%

confidence interval for μ1-μ2. We are 95% confident

that the two means are different
 Therefore there appear to be significant differences at

level 0.05(=1-95%) in the mean scores between boys

and girls
Example: LIC (Cont.)
 Question: Find a 95%
confidence interval for
the mean difference
between boys and
girls for the trips factor
scale activity and
interpret the result
 (you can do it!)
 Difference between Two
Proportions

 Goal: comparing the proportion of “successes”

in two different binomial populations
 Examples
 proportion of defective items in two plants

 proportion of smokers among men and

women
 Data: a random sample of size n1 from binomial
population A with proportion p1 and a random
sample of size n2 from binomial population B
with proportion p2
 Estimating the Difference
between Two Proportions

 “Natural” point estimate : difference of the two sample

proportions (x1 and x2 are number of “successes” in the
two samples)
x1 x2
pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 = −
n1 n2
 For inference on p1 - p2 , we need to know about the
sampling distribution of the difference of sample
proportions
 Sampling Distribution of the Difference
between Sample Proportions

1. The mean of pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 is p1 − p 2 = the difference in

the population proportion s; therefore it is an unbisaed estimator of p1 − p 2
p1 (1 − p1 ) p 2 (1 − p 2 )
2. The standard deviation of pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 is SE = + .
n1 n2
3. If the sample sizes n 1 and n 2 are large, the sampling distributi on
of pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 is approximat ely normal (by CLT) with mean p1 − p 2 , and SE estimated
pˆ 1 (1 − pˆ 1 ) pˆ 2 (1 − pˆ 2 )
by SE = + .
n1 n2
Confidence Interval for p1 - p2
 One can use the Central Limit Theorem to
get the 100(1-α)% confidence interval for p1
- p2 :
100(1 - α )% Confidence interval for p1 − p 2 :
pˆ 1 (1 − pˆ 1 ) pˆ 2 (1 − pˆ 2 )
( pˆ 1 − pˆ 2 ) ± zα / 2 +
n1 n2
 Example: Television
Age influences not only what you
Area 25 to 44 45 to 59 60 and older

watch on television but also where
you watch television. A study has Living room 95% 95% 93%

shown that older Americans are less

likely than younger ones to watch
Bedroom 58% 57% 45%

television in bed and more likely to Kitchen 12% 20% 20%

watch television in the dining area. Dining area 10% 10% 19%
For the data given in the table, the
sample size for each age group was
1000
 Question: Estimate the difference
between the proportions of Americans
in the 25 to 59 age groups and those
60 years and older who watch
television in the living room using a
99% confidence interval.
Interpretation of the Confidence
Interval
 What conclusion can you draw regarding the groups
compared in the above example?
 Observe that “no difference” means p1 - p2=0

 0 is IN the 99% confidence interval for p1 - p2

 Therefore, we can not conclude that there is significant

difference at level 0.01(=1-99%) in the proportions of
Americans age 25 to 59 and those 60 and older who
watch TV in the living room.
 Question: What is the 90% confidence interval for the twp
proportions?
 Answer:
 Interpretation: