10/18/2016

Texas2016PresidentialElectionSurveyUniversityofHouston

Hobby School of Public Affairs

Texas 2016 Presidential Election Survey
The Hobby School of Public Aairs at the University of Houston completed live telephone
interviews with 1,000 registered voters in Texas who reported they were certain (77 percent)
or very likely to vote (23 percent) on or before election day on November 8, 2016.
Interviews were conducted by Consumer Research International between October 7 and
October 15, 2016. Interviews were conducted on landline (54 percent) and cell phones
(46percent).
The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3 percent (at the 95 percent condence level). The
survey was conducted under the supervision of co-directors Richard Murray, director of the
Hobby Schools Survey Research Institute, and Robert Stein, research associate at the Hobby
School.
The sample was weighted to reect the racial and ethnic composition of the electorate based
on the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections.

A. Presidential Candidate Support in Texas

Candidate

Support

Trump

41%

Clinton

38%

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Johnson

4%

Stein

1%

None

3%

Don't know

11%

Refused

2%

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 3 points in the presidential election among Texas
voters.
The Trump lead of 3 percent is statistically signicant.
Since 2000, no Republican presidential candidiate has failed to carry Texas by less than
11 percent points.

B. Presidential Candidate Support by Partisan Identication

Candidate

Democrat

Independent

Republican

Trump

2%

14%

78%

Clinton

80%

30%

5%

Johnson

2%

13%

5%

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Stein

1%

4%

0%

None

2%

4%

3%

Don't know

11%

29%

8%

Refused

1%

10%

1%

Eighty percent of self-identied Democrats voters are voting for Clinton, compared to 78
percent of self-identied Republican who are voting for Trump.
Among Republican voters, 5 percent are voting for Clinton while 2 percent of Democratic
voters are voting for Trump.
Eleven percent of Democrats are undecided about who to vote for in Novembers
presidential contest. Only 9 percent of Republicans are undecided.
More than a quarter (29 percent) of all independents are undecided about who they will
vote for in the presidential contest.
Among independents, Clinton leads Trump 30 percent to 14 percent.
Third party candidates Johnson (13 percent) and Stein (4 percent) are receiving 17
percent of the independent vote.

C. Presidential Candidate Support by Gender

Candidate

Male

Female

Trump

44%

38%

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Clinton

35%

42%

Johnson

4%

3%

Stein

1%

1%

None

4%

2%

Don't know

9%

14%

Refused

3%

1%

Men favor Trump (44 percent) over Clinton (35 percent).

Women favor Clinton (42 percent) and Clinton (38 percent).

D. Support for Presidential Candidates

by Likelihood of Voting in Novembers Election
Candidate

Certain to vote

Very likely to vote

Trump/Pence

42%

37%

Clinton/Kaine

38%

37%

Johnson/Weld

4%

3%

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Stein/Baraka

1%

1%

None

3%

3%

Don't know

9%

17%

Refused

2%

2%

Trump leads Clinton by 4 percent among voters who are certain to vote in November.
Trump and Clinton are tied (37 percent) among voters who are very likely to vote in
November.

E. How would you rate Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton?

Candidate

Trump

Clinton

Very Favorable

19%

23%

Somewhat Favorable

21%

18%

Somewhat Unfavorable

8%

7%

Very Unfavorable

48%

47%

No opinion

4%

4%

Don't know the person

0%

0%

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Refused

1%

1%

Clinton is rated very unfavorably by 47 percent of Texas voters.

Trump is rated very unfavorably by 48 percent of Texas voters.

F. Which candidate will do a better job handling?

Texas voters believe Republican Donald Trump will do a better job on immigration (49
percent), ghting terrorism (52 percent) and crime (52 percent), managing the economy
(51 percent), and ending gridlock in Washington (44 percent) than Hillary Clinton (34
percent).
Texas voters believe Clinton will do a better job protecting the environment (50 percent)
and handling foreign policy (48 percent) than Donald Trump.

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G. Who do you think will be the next President of the United States?
Candidate

Democrat

Independent

Republican

All Voters

Hillary Clinton

82%

55%

27%

53%

Donald Trump

2%

9%

42%

23%

Someone else

1%

5%

1%

1%

Do you not know

15%

29%

29%

23%

Refused

1%

2%

1%

1%

Fifty-three percent of Texas voters believe Hillary Clinton will be our nations next
president. Only 23 percent of all Texas voters believe Donald Trump will be elected
president.
Less than half (42 percent) of Texas Republicans believe Donald Trump will be elected
president.

H. How frequently do persons vote illegally?

Democrat

Independent Republican

All Voters

It is very common

8%

11%

28%

18%

It occurs occasionally

10%

16%

34%

23%

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It occurs infrequently

15%

16%

15%

15%

It almost never occurs

55%

30%

10%

30%

Don't Know

13%

27%

12%

13%

Refuse

0%

0%

0%

0%

Eighteen percent of Texas voters believe it is very common that people in Texas who are
not legally eligible to vote are indeed voting.
Thirty percent of Texas voters believe illegal voting almost never occurs.
Nearly two-thirds (62 percent) of Republican voters are more likely to believe that
persons voting illegally is either very common or occurs occasionally.
Fifty-ve percent of Democratic voters believe persons voting illegally almost never
occurs.

I. Is a government issued photographic ID required to vote in Texas?

Anglo

AfricanHispanic
American

Asian

Other All Voters

Yes, it is required

42%

47%

49%

59%

52%

44%

Not required

30%

13%

19%

10%

20%

26%

Don't know

28%

39%

31%

31%

28%

29%

Refuse

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

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Forty-four percent of voters in Texas believe a government issued photographic

identication is required to vote in this Novembers presidential election in Texas.
Twenty-nine percent of voters dont know if a photo ID is required to vote.
Twenty-ve percent of registered voters in Texas correctly know that a government
issued photo ID is not required to vote in this Novembers Texas election.
Anglos (42 percent) are signicantly more likely than African-American, Hispanic, and
Asian voters (47 percent, 49 percent, and 59 percent respectively) to know that a
government issued photo ID is not required to vote in this Novembers election.
Read the media release. (http://www.uh.edu/newsevents/stories/2016/September/09222016Hobby-School-Poll.php)

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