3D Model Uncertainty

Model-derived uncertainties or uncertainty about

models
Renaud Meunier - November 2013

Geomodels
A 3D geomodel is a numerical representation of the reality
It is used to compute uncertainty on global parameters:
-

Volumes (OOIP)
Production forecast

It is possible to compute statistics locally (e.g. cell by cell)

Questions:
-

What are the values of these statistics?

Could they help to predict properties or forecast production?
o

At the global and local scales?

Geomodeling workflow
Uncertainty is present at each step

Where is uncertainty coming from?

"We deal with one reservoir only, but our knowledge of it is such
that several reservoir models are compatible with our priori
knowledge and data" (Dubrule, Geo-statistics for Seismic Data
Integration in Earth Models, 2003)
We have several solutions matching the data that we have
-

Not enough certain data (e.g. well logs)

Uncertain or imprecise data (e.g. seismic)
o

A matter of scale

Consequence:
-

We cannot predict with exactitude the reality

Global vs local prediction

The 3 maps below are different

But their statistics are the same

Nb Ech : 40000
Minimum: 0.10
Maximum: 35.00
Moyenne: 1.69
Ec-Type: 2.34

0.8
0.7

Frquences

0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0

10

20

30

Global uncertainty will be the same but local uncertainty will be

different, e.g.:
-

volumes (global)
new well location (local)
5

How is the uncertainty measured?

We can simulate by stochastically varying key parameters
For global uncertainty we can cumulate the uncertainty
coming from each input parameters
100
90

P90

80
70
Frequencie s

e.g. <OOIP>=<GRV>*<NtG>*<>*(1-<Sw>)/Bo

60

P50

50
40
30
20

P10

10
0

1.1e+008

1.1e+008

1.1e+008

1.2e+008

Volumes (m3)

This approach can be generalized to production data:

-

By simulating flow in the model with varying dynamic parameters

o

If too long, an approximation by experimental design can be used

Quality of uncertainty computation

We need to find a minimal uncertainty on variable parameters
The uncertainty level depends on the degree of heterogeneity of
the variable
-

Link to the data sampling

o
o

Number of observations (should increase with the heterogeneity)

Position in space (better when uniformly sampled)

Assuming same variable and field (i.e. same heterogeneity)

+ uncertainty

- uncertainty

Heterogeneity Examples
Sylvinite beds in potash mines can be
continuous over long distances

Shoal in carbonate environment can be very

heterogeneous (less than the typical reservoir cell
size)

Underwater photograph of a reef front off Discovery

Bay, Jamaica. Water depth is ~7 meters. (Noel
James, 1983; from AAPG Memoir 33)
Courtesy Jeffrey Yarus and Richard Chambers

Consequences:
- More heterogeneous our system is less we can predict at the local scale
- But the global scale prediction still holds as long as the statistics (i.e. PDF) are accurate

Global parameters uncertainty

Knowing the histograms or PDF, global uncertainty quantification can be done by a MonteCarlo approach
GRV

N/G

Sw

Random number generation

GRV x N/G x F x (1-Sw)

STOOIP = ----------------------------Bo
Need to take into account correlation between variables to get the right amount of uncertainty

Radical errors
Incertitude are computed on a mathematical model
-

Geostatistical simulation (PDF + Variogram + Data (hard and soft)) [1]

Geostatistical inversion ([1] + physical forward model)

However it is possible to get radical errors occurring if the model

is not realist
-

e.g. Presence of a sub-seismic fault

o
o

seal problem
structural problem +- 10m below or above target

This type of error is not captured by uncertainty quantification

-

Could have a minimum impact on reserves but a strong one on local

parameters (e.g. reservoir top, connection between blocks)

10

What can be done?

A model is not a measure of the reality
-

It is our numerical approximation of the reality

To minimize the error we need to integrate data of different

natures and of different scales
-

Well logs, cores

Seismic, Gravimetric, EM
Dynamic synthesis (basic reservoir engineering)
o

Generally not taken into account in static model building

The geomodel quality then depends on the amount of

information (knowledge) that it incorporates.
-

Integrating inputs (knowledge) from various disciplines helps reducing

the risk of radical errors.

11

Consistency with dynamic synthesis

Dynamic synthesis allows defining the hydraulic connection
between wells and/or stratigraphic units
Geomodels are expected to reproduce these connections
-

If not, History Match will be very difficult

12

Consistency with dynamic synthesis

There is no geostatistical algorithm honoring connections
-

Connections can be managed only by workflows linking geostatistical

and morphological tools

Connections can be checked by mean of connected bodies

Connected wells

13

Consistency with dynamic synthesis

Solving wells connection inconsistencies:
-

Modify local Vertical Proportion Curves to allow the presence of

connecting facies between the wells or at the contact between units

Connecting facies in blue

VPC @ well1
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

VPC between wells

0%

100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

VPC @ well2

100%
100%

0%

10

10

10

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Thepresence
null proportion
of connecting
The
of connecting
facies
facies between
wellsthe
cutshydraulic
the
between
wells allows
hydraulic connection
connection
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Conclusion (1)
Geomodels are representations of the reality not the reality itself
Uncertainty is due to lack of precise data (e.g. well control),
imprecise data (e.g. seismic), impossibility to conceive with
certainty a conceptual model
Model uncertainty can be accessed by stochastically varying the
model parameters and generating equiprobable outcomes

15

Conclusion (2)
Even if uncertainty on a global parameter is low, the prediction
capability at local scale may be poor
-

Low uncertainty on OOIP may be associated with poor properties

distribution prediction at local scale in heterogeneous environments
Difference between local and global uncertainty
Conceptual uncertainty require a scenario based approach

Geomodel quality depends on the amount of information

(knowledge) that it incorporates.
-

Integrating knowledge from various disciplines helps reducing the risk

of radical errors

16