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Libya

www.whisperingbell.com /blog/libya/libya-oil-crescent-recent-developments

Libya Oil Crescent - Recent Developments October 7


LNAs sudden seizure of ports from Jathrans PFG forces
The Libyan National Army (LNA) commanded by General Khalifa Haftar commenced operation Al-Barq Al-Khatif at 0400hrs
on Sunday Sept 11 to take control of the Oil Crescent region of Libya, which holds Libyas largest oil reserves, as well as
the main export terminals. Following successful negotiations with Al-Mjabra tribe in Ajdabiyathe tribe of Ibrahim Jathran
the operation began to seize all positions held by Ibrahim Jathrans Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG). The LNA also seized
the PFGs Al-Sham camp west of Ajdabiya, as well as the ports of Al-Sidra, Ras Lanuf and Brega without much opposition.
Ajdabiya residents reportedly assisted the LNA to raid Jathrans family residence in Ajdabiya in an effort to arrest him and
his brother Salim Jathran.
LNA spokesman Ahmad Al-Mismari made various public statements the day of the operation, declaring the LNA had
complete control over Al-Sham Camp, Al-Sidra, Ras Lanuf and Brega terminals, as well as associated facilities, including
camps and air fields. In his statements. Al-Mismari called on the National Oil Corporation (NOC) to resume production
immediately. He also stated that military units will have no role in any decision making or the running of the oil and gas
facilities, and that they will be handed over to the House of Representatives (HoR) and its affiliated institutions.
General Haftar also issued a new order on Sept 11 to establish a forcereporting directly to the LNAresponsible for the
protection of oil facilities and neighboring towns. The following day in the early hours of Sept 12, the LNA seized Zueitina oil
terminal, the local airfield and surrounding residential areas. This development resulted in a major shift of political power, as
it resulted in five out of the six oil ports in Libya being under the control of forces loyal to the HoR.
A joint statement of condemnation followed on Sept 13 by the Governments of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United
Kingdom, and the United States over the LNAs seizure of key central and eastern oil ports. The statement reiterated that
the, Oil infrastructure, production, and export must remain under the exclusive control of the NOC acting under the
Government of National Accord (GNA) authority, while calling for the withdrawal of all military forces. The statement strikes
a remarkably different tone compared to the one published on NOC website, where it announced its intent to resume oil
exports on Sep 14 and the subsequent lifting of force majeure from the ports.
On Sept 15, photos emerged on social media outlets showing oil being pumped from Al-Nafoora oil field, near the town of
Jakharrad. Until that moment, the oil field had remained closed for almost three years when operations were halted due to
security concerns. Pipelines in Al-Nafoora oil field are connected to Zueitina oil port in the Oil Crescent area.
Jathrans counter-attack to reclaim the ports
The first oil tanker named the Seadelta docked at Ras Lanuf on Thursday Sept 15, which arrived from Trieste, Italy, and
loaded crude from onshore storage tanks. Seadelta was in the process of loading over 700,000 barrels of oil when events
on Sunday Sept 18 disrupted the loading. Renewed clashes began early Sunday between Jathrans PFG and LNA forces
causing a temporary retreat by the LNA forces from Al-Sidra and parts of Ras Lanuf. Unconfirmed reports suggested the
PFG collaborated with the Islamist-leaning Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB) militias in an effort to retake all oil ports and
terminals. The PFG and BDB have never fought alongside each other and are not known to be allies but they both view
General Haftar and the LNA as an enemy.
However, during the latter part of Sunday Sept 18, the NOC confirmed that the LNA remained in control of the ports of Ras
Lanuf and Al-Sidra and there was some damage to a storage tank at Ras Lanuf. The LNA was supported with airstrikes in
repelling the PFG counter-attack on the ports. Fighting then shifted west of Al-Sidra, in close proximity to the city of Bin
Jawad, where Jathran and his forces retreated. The LNA seized full control of Bin Jawad and Harawa, extending the
overall control of the LNA to most of eastern Libya.
Surge in oil production
Despite the clashes, positive news for the Libyan oil sector continued over the days that followed. On Tuesday Sept 20,
Mitiga Airport authorities claimed that flights to airports serving oil fields and oil terminals in the Sirte Basin were expected
to resume following a suspension lasting more than three years. The same days, Eni Chief Executive Claudio Descalzi
stated that equity production in Libya remains over 300,000 barrels per day (bpd). The Arabian Gulf Oil Company
(AGOCO) stated its productions had increased from 210,000 to 320,000 bpd, the highest production rate achieved in two
years.

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The NOC announced that it is capable of raising production to 600,000 bpd within a few weeks and to 950,000 bpd by the
end of the year, from around 290,000 bpd pumped prior to LNA taking control of the Oil Crescent. Early signs of the NOC
activities support its statement of increasing oil production, having resumed meetings with the oil majors of Libya and
announced the reactivation of production of oil fields including the fields of Amal, Nafoura, Hamada, and Majid field over the
recent short period.

Libyas oil production has suffered since the 2011 revolution. Following a rapid recovery in 2012 to pre-revolution levels of
1.6million bpd, internal political conflicts led to Jathrans forces closing the ports, claiming that oil was being sold without
meters to measure the amount pumped to the ports. This resulted in years of disruptions to oil production and a drop in
state income, which depends almost entirely on oil revenue. Libya has been running a state budget deficit since 2014, and
with its finances weathering quickly, the country is in urgent need of stability and agreement between political parties to
stabilize its finances again.

Analysis:
Whispering Bell assesses the timing of the LNAs advance on the Oil Crescent Region is critical. As the fight against IS in
Sirte could be nearing an end, there were fears that those forces could continue eastwards to support Jathrans PFG. This
would have forced the LNA to be the aggressors against forces aligned with the internationally recognized GNA. Removing

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Jathran from the equation and controlling the oil facilities provided General Haftar with greater negotiating power in
initiating localized military control in the east of the country, including the most critical oil facilities.
Both Prime Minister Sarraj and UN Special Envoy to Libya Martin Kobler quickly expressed their interest to meet and open
a dialog with General Haftar, who has yet to officially respond. On Sept 16, a meeting was held in Cairo involving
discussions between Prime Minister Sarraj and HoR President Ageela Saleh, suggesting the formation of an Armed Forces
Supreme Council, which would include General Haftar as one of the members. Prime Minister Sarraj also stated General
Haftar should be represented in a new more inclusive government.
However, an opposite reaction to the LNA actions in the Oil Crescent was witnessed from the High State Council to that of
Prime Minister Sarraj and UN Special Envoy Martin Kobler. Speaking at a press conference at the High State Council
offices in Tripoli, Council President Abdulrahman Swehli called on Libyans to resist the military coup attempt by General
Haftar, announcing that the Council will take charge of running the country until the HoR gives a vote of confidence to the
GNA. On Sept 25, the High State Council announced that it plans to appoint top military and civilian positions, including the
heads of the armed forces and the governor of Central Bank of Libya (CBL).
Current political landscape
With Jathrans PFG forces losing control of the coastal area from Zueitina to Al-Sidra, and the agreement between the LNA
and the tribes in the central Libya, the LNA and HoR have been able to expand their territorial dominance further west to the
edge of Sirte. The GNA forces have expanded further east over the past month, since the start of the campaign to regain
control of Sirte from the Islamic State (IS). IS have lost territory from Abu Grain and most of the city of Sirte, leaving their
current control to a couple remaining neighborhoods on the east side of the city.

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Whispering Bell is present in Libya and supporting international clients with their security requirements. Find out more
about Whispering Bell's security services in Libya .

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