Population Studies

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Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation

and adaptation
Wolfgang Lutz & Erich Striessnig
To cite this article: Wolfgang Lutz & Erich Striessnig (2015) Demographic aspects of
climate change mitigation and adaptation, Population Studies, 69:sup1, S69-S76, DOI:
10.1080/00324728.2014.969929
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.969929

Published online: 26 Apr 2015.

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Date: 15 September 2016, At: 07:55

Population Studies, 2015

Vol. 69, No. S1, S69S76, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2014.969929

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation

and adaptation
Wolfgang Lutz and Erich Striessnig
Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/AW; WU)

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas
emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on
the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of
the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of
educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This
evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized.
While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeSpecial Report on Emissions
Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population
essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were
designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include
full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

Keywords: education; demographic change; behavioural change; climate change; mitigation; adaptation

An intervention-science approach to population

and climate change interactions
The social sciences face great challenges in addressing effectively the issue of global environmental
change. Much of our scientific work takes a rather
specific disciplinary approach and only focuses on
narrow aspects of this major interdisciplinary challenge. While much of our thinking about the world is
compartmentalized, the real world that we try to
understand and the future course of which we try to
anticipate is highly interconnected. Its study calls for
an analytical systems approach.
In this context it has recently been suggested that
it is useful to structure the broad range of all the
social sciences and humanities into what have been
labelled identity sciences and intervention sciences
(Lutz 2012). While the former address the questions
about who we are and where we are coming from,
the notion of intervention sciences refers to the
study of where we are going and what actions
(interventions) can influence the future course of
events under certain conditions. At the individual
level this refers to theories of human behaviour, at
the societal level it calls for theories of socioeconomic change with predictive power (Lutz
2013). While the behaviour of people as individuals
or as groups tends to be less deterministic than most
2015 Population Investigation Committee

of the processes studied in the natural sciences, there

is no reason not to propose models of social change
in which the consequences of interventions for
future outcomes are predicted within specified uncertainty ranges. This approach is exemplified by
Lutz and KC (2011), who considered educational
attainment as a relevant demographic characteristic
in addition to age and sex. They showed, for several
decades into the future, how interventions in the
form of different levels of the expansion of education produce not only different distributions of
educational attainment but also different total population sizes and levels of child mortality. This is
because fertility and child mortality vary in consistent and predictable ways with the level of mothers
education.
In times of accelerating social change around the
world, understanding and modelling the systematic
and predictable elements of social change are
needed more than ever before. The challenges that
societies face in the form of man-made climate
change require interventions in the near term which
are based not only on natural scientific evidence but
also on scientific analyses of the social relations and
structures which may enhance or reduce vulnerability to future climate conditions. Hardly any challenges in the twenty-first century are greater than
those arising from the interaction of demographic

S70

Wolfgang Lutz and Erich Striessnig

change and climate change. Moreover, we know

with near certainty that future global climatic conditions and the size and structure of global populations
will be different from those observed today.
To address climate change and changes in the
socio-economic structures of the human population
in scientific fashion, we need models with predictive
power on both sides. And here we observe a major
asymmetry. There are numerous big science projects dealing with climate change in the natural
sciences, involving highly sophisticated Global Circulation Models with thousands of scientists providing projections with uncertainty ranges of the
response of temperature and precipitation to different concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. However, there is almost nothing comparable in scale
and effort in the humanities and social sciences.
Nonetheless, they have an equally important question to address, namely, to identify the likely future
structures and capabilities of human populations
that are available to cope with expected future
climate conditions. Arising from this asymmetry,
most estimates of the likely level of future human
suffering induced by climate changefor instance,
the estimates by the World Health Organization of
additional malaria deaths in the highlands of Eastern
Africaassume that future climate conditions will
affect societies that have remained at a stage in their
socio-economic development and public health capabilities similar to those on the same territory today.
Studying the interactions between two evolving
systems by assuming that one (climate) changes
significantly and the other (human population and
development) is frozen at its current conditions is an
untenable, if not absurd, approach to the study of
this important issue.
The reason for this unsatisfactory situation may lie
in the fact that there are very few models that can
provide alternative future scenarios of population
and human development. However, even given this
uncertainty, the persistence of present conditions is
clearly not the best assumption. As demographers,
we know with near certainty that the future population in, say, Eastern Africa will be larger, older, and
probably better educated than it is today. Moreover,
these changes, together with associated social and
economic changes, will significantly influence the
vulnerability and adaptive capacity of human societies in the second half of our century. In almost all
countries the younger generations are on average
better educated than the older ones, so the average
education of the adult population in the future will
improve. That is likely to improve economic growth
and the governance of public health (Lutz 2014).

Different near-term interventions through education policies can lead to different long-term socioeconomic development pathways that matter both
for the mitigation of climate change and adaptation
to it. This will be discussed later in the paper in the
context of the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways
(SSPs) that have been developed in partnership
with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). Figure 1 represents graphically the
complex relationship between population dynamics
and the climate system. On the lower left side of the
figure, we see the effects of changes in the human
population on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and
the resulting climate change. While in early studies
of this effect only the absolute size of the population
was assumed to matter (Ehrlich and Holdren 1971),
now there is growing recognition that people differ
in important ways in their demographic characteristics in respect of human energy consumption and
emissions (ONeill et al. 2001). The Figure illustrates
that the solutions to mitigation, that is, reductions in
emissions, depend on technological advance and
behavioural changes. This capacity for innovation
will again depend on the demographic composition
of the population and in particular on its level of
education. However, the ability to cope with the
consequences of climate change also varies greatly
at the level of the individual, the household, and the
community. Differential vulnerability according to
demographic characteristics such as age, sex, place
of residence, or level of education has to be taken
into account when assessing the likely impacts of
changing climate conditions on mortality, health,
livelihood, or migration.

Demographic drivers of mitigation

The classical I = PAT model, disaggregating humanitys overall impact on the environment, still
assumed that the effects of population (P), affluence
(A), and technology (T) were separable. However,
more recent analyses (MacKellar et al. 1995; ONeill
et al. 2001, 2010) show that future carbon emissions
will be driven not just by population size but also by
the distribution of the population by age, sex,
education, place of residence, household size, and
other relevant characteristics. Future societies, by
any account, will be much older than present ones,
they will be more urban, and they will be more
educated. All of this affects lifestyles and consumption patterns, and also innovative potential: the
ability to find solutions and to cope with unavoidable aspects of climate change. How many people

Interaction of population and climate change

S71

Regional effects on:

temperature
humidity
extreme events (storms)
sea-level rise

Global Climate Change

Differential vulnerability

Livelihood
GHG emissions

Consumption

Health/Mortality

Migration

Technology

Human Population

Innovation

By age, sex,
level of education,
place of residence,
and household
structure

Closing the full circle

of population and climate change

No education
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary

Figure 1 Closing the full circle of mitigation (on the left) and vulnerability and adaptation (on the right) of
population and climate change interactions
Source: Lutz 2009a.
the Earth ultimately can support is not only a question
of population size, it also depends on the capabilities
of those people inhabiting it (Cohen 1995).
A recent body of literature has suggested that in
addition to the conventional demographic differentiation by age and sex, educational attainment
should be included routinely as a third demographic
dimension in all studies of population dynamics, thus
introducing a dimension of quality. That dimension
is highly relevant for understanding the interactions
between population and climate change. While the
importance of education as an empowering factor
is clear and straightforward in the case of adaptation to climate changeas will be discussed in the
following sectionits role in mitigation is more
complex. In the high-fertility contexts of much of
the less developed world, the main impact of

education is through its effect on fertility. Mediated

by a desire for smaller family sizes representing the
move from quantity to quality of children, education reduces population growth. However, education also typically enhances economic growth,
makes people more affluent, and helps to bring
people out of poverty (Lutz et al. 2008; Crespo et al.
2013). While this is a highly desirable outcome from
a development perspective, reduced poverty also
meansat least under current technological realities
higher consumption and thus more CO2 emissions. This makes some environmental activists,
those concerned only with reducing emissions and
not with reducing poverty, sceptical about the value
of education in the context of mitigation.
In order to avoid playing poverty eradication and
increases in well-being against climate change

S72

Wolfgang Lutz and Erich Striessnig

mitigation, it is necessary to look at behavioural

differences at given levels of income. Recent evidence from US households shows that better educated people tend to consume in more eco-friendly
ways at any given level of income, particularly when
it comes to spending on home energy and transportation by car. These are two of the most important sources of household-level atmospheric GHG
production (Sharygin 2013). Thus, it can be argued
that education will play a major role in mitigating
the impact on CO2 emissions of otherwise desirable
increases in incomes. That this is not only a Western
phenomenon is shown by a study on fuel choices in
urban Indian households (Farsi et al. 2007), where
the level of education reveals a similar potential for
mitigation. Illiterate household heads, or those with
only primary education, are more likely to choose
firewood or kerosene as a cooking fuel. However,
households where the head has a higher level of
education are more likely to use liquid petroleum
gas (LPG), which has clear efficiency, health, and
environmental benefits. For instance, households
with illiterate heads are on average about 22 per
cent more likely than those with a secondary school
education (the base category) to use wood and
about 34 per cent less likely to use LPG.
In another study on the mitigation potential of
lifestyles and related consumer choices by Pronello
and Camusso (2011), the level of education and age
are the only socio-economic and demographic characteristics that influence choices in favour of more
environmentally friendly modes of transport. In a
cluster analysis of the mobility patterns of travellers
in an Italian city, they show that age and education
distinguish clusters strongly, while sex, family size,
and income are irrelevant indicators. Because it is
mainly the young and better educated who show
more sustainable behaviour as well as a more
positive attitude to change, the authors recommend
that education should be seen as an addition to
traditional interventions for the management of
the supply of transportation. An adequate educational policy addressed to mobility has to make use
of the dynamics of demographic metabolismthe
replacement of older generations by younger ones
and start with the young generations to achieve a
social transformation in the long run.
The demographic and behavioural factors discussed above in their very nature evolve only slowly
and gradually. However, much more powerful nearterm forces of successful mitigation come from
technological innovations that reduce fossil fuel
consumption radically while maintaining or improving the standard of living. The associated notion of

green growth has become a powerful catchword in

the context of the Rio+20 International Conference
on Sustainable Development held in Rio de Janeiro
in 2012. However, the technologies needed to justify
such optimism do not yet exist and will not exist at
an affordable cost in the near future. Hence, hope
rests strongly on the future innovative potential of
societies. While the appearance of specific innovations is impossible to predict, it is generally agreed
that a high general level of education enlarges the
pool of potential successful innovators and enhances
the appreciation of science and research in society.
Without that, democratic states will not make the
investments in basic research which fosters such
innovations.

Human capital and vulnerability/adaptability to

climate change
In recent years the response of the international
community to climate change has moved gradually
from an almost exclusive focus on mitigation to
giving more attention to the need to prepare for
adaptation to climate change that is already unavoidable. That went hand in hand with a growing
recognition that in assessing peoples vulnerability,
their demographic characteristics and capabilities
are important as well as where they live. A recent
international scientific panel on Demographys
Role in Sustainable Development emphasized the
need to:
(i) Recognize that the numbers, characteristics, and
behaviour of people are at the heart of sustainable
development challenges and of their solutions. (ii)
Identify subpopulations that contribute most to environmental degradation and those that are most vulnerable to its consequences. In poor countries especially,
these subpopulations are readily identifiable according
to age, gender, level of education, place of residence,
and standard of living. (Lutz et al. 2012, p. 918)

This focus on differential vulnerability is a recent

development in the research community dealing
with natural disasters and adaptation, whose primary focus has been traditionally on location. However, the importance of demographic factors, in
particular the changing educational composition of
the population, in affecting the future impact of
climate change on human survival and well-being
has been the topic of a recent special issue of
Ecology and Society (Butz et al. 2014). Several
contributions find strong evidence, both at the
micro-level and the macro-level, of the risk-reducing
potential of education, which enables individuals to
acquire knowledge, skills, and competencies that can

Interaction of population and climate change

influence their adaptive capacity and thus reduce
risk. An individual-level study of preparedness for
disaster during the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes
among households located along the Andaman coast
in Phang Nga province found that formal education
measured at individual, household, and community levelincreased the likelihood of precautionary
action being taken (Muttarak and Pothisiri 2013).
While having been affected by the 2004 tsunami
clearly increased preparedness for an emergency,
education emerged as a relevant factor in anticipating risk and taking precautionary steps among
persons without such disaster experience.
Another study by Frankenberg et al. (2013), using
longitudinal survey data collected in two provinces
on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, before and after
the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, examined the extent
to which education protects individuals from natural
disaster. They found that education clearly played a
role in coping with the disaster over the longer term,
with the better educated enjoying better psychosocial health 5 years after the tsunami. They were
less likely than others to live under precarious living
conditions and were better at compensating for loss
of income following the tsunami.
Similar evidence on the association between education and vulnerability has been reported at the
community level. KC (2013) found that education
level strongly mitigated damage from floods and
landslides in terms of human lives lost, animals lost,
and other damage to households using comprehensive village-level data for Nepal (a microsample of
the 2001 census covering 2.5 million individuals
together with disaster data for 200009). Comparing
the effect of education with those of income and
wealth, the author concludes that education has a
stronger and more consistent effect in reducing
damage.
A comparative study by Wamsler et al. (2012) on
two low-income settlements in Brazil and El Salvador, where climate-related disasters are recurrent,
yields similar conclusions. The level of education
was found to be negatively correlated with the level
of exposure to risk. The effect arose directly and
indirectly: directly by reducing existing risks through
greater awareness and better understanding, and
indirectly by protecting against poor health, organized crime, teenage pregnancy, single motherhood,
or informal settlement growth. In addition to that,
they found evidence that education may be the key
to another prime coping strategy in adapting to
climate change, namely, migrating out of the affected high-risk area (Adqer and Adams 2013). Evidence on environmentally induced migration from

S73

Mali and Senegal strongly confirms this finding (van

der Land and Hummel 2013).
Another study by Garbero and Muttarak (2013)
investigated the impacts of floods and droughts on
community welfare in Thailand. Based on Thai
government surveys of living conditions and life
quality in 68,695 rural villages for 200911, the
paper uses difference-in-difference methods to analyse how floods and droughts in 2010 affected
consumption and income of the villages in 2011. It
found that communities with higher average educational attainment, unlike others, did not experience
a reduction in consumption, investment in agriculture, or a decline in income. A further analysis
demonstrates that communities with high average
levels of education are more able to secure government financial aid for areas affected by floods and
droughts.
Again building on the evidence from the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami, a study by Muttarak et al.
(2012) on 286 villages in Phang Nga province in
Thailand that suffered the most severe losses,
showed that preparation for extreme climate events
and natural disasters are driven by past experience
and anticipation of such events in the future. In
addition, villages with a higher proportion of village
members with at least secondary education are more
likely to prepare for potential natural disasters.
Similarly, Pichler and Striessnig (2013) used data
from qualitative interviews conducted in Cuba and
the Dominican Republic to compare these two
island states with regard to disaster vulnerability.
Even though they are fairly similar in their exposure
to natural extreme events, the outcomes of disasters
vary greatly between the two islands. While effective
disaster response is strongly embedded in the minds
of the entire Cuban population, which is one of the
most educated in the less developed world, the lack
of education and literacy in the Dominican Republic
made its people more vulnerable and prevented
them even from understanding warnings about
forthcoming danger.
Using national-level time series of disaster fatalities around the world, a study by Striessnig et al.
(2013) found significant evidence for the role of
education in reducing disaster fatalities. On the
other hand, contrary to popular assumptions, there
was no evidence for the role of income per head in
reducing vulnerability once other key determinants
of socio-economic development and exposure to risk
had been controlled for. Making use of the demographic theory of social change with predictive
power outlined above, the authors projected future
vulnerability to natural disasters in different

Wolfgang Lutz and Erich Striessnig

scenarios of future human capital. They found that

even under the assumption of constant hazard, that
is, disregarding the possibility of an increase in the
frequency of extreme weather events caused by
climate change, investment in universal secondary
education offers a huge potential for saving lives.
These were just a few examples of recent studies
that have addressed the different levels of vulnerability in recently observed natural disasters. These
specific patterns of vulnerability to disasters are
likely to be similar to those arising from future
climate change more broadly, and in particular from
the projected higher incidence of extreme events.

Outlook and conclusions

As demographers we know that societies change
over time in composition by age, sex, education, and
other relevant characteristics. We also have a unique
toolkit (multi-dimensional cohort component methods) to model and project these changing structures
over several decades into the future with only small
uncertainties. This predictive power based on the
principle of demographic metabolism (Ryder 1965;
Lutz 2013), which results in slow and foreseeable
gradual cohort replacement, distinguishes demographic models from most other models in the social
sciences. If we know how many girls aged 15 today
have completed primary education, we have a very
good basis for estimating how many women aged 55
in 2050 will have at least primary education. The
only errors come from future trends in mortality and
migrationwhich should be considered as being
education-specificand from some late transitions
to primary education. No other discipline offers
better long-term projections of social structure than
demography, and hence no other discipline is better
equipped to make predictions about the significance
of the projections for a populations vulnerability
and capacity to adapt to climate change.
Furthermore, demographers have a long tradition
of studying all kinds of differentials and, in particular, differential vulnerability to threats such as infant
mortality, adult mortality, morbidity, and disability.
On the positive side, we also study differentials in
education and other factors of empowerment that
enhance the adaptive capacity of individuals, households, and communities, as shown by the evidence
presented above. Here, demographers can make a
unique and crucial contribution to global discussion
on climate change. We are better at studying
differentials and making projections than any other
social scienceand we should use this strength to

help the world to assess what is likely to happen to

future societies. Applying the demographic theory of
social change with predictive power, we can help
improve policies to mitigate GHG emissions and
reduce vulnerability to climate change.
A major step in this direction was the recent
inclusion of population projections by age, sex, and
educational attainment in the new set of global SSPs
(KC and Lutz 2013; ONeill et al., under review).
These qualitative descriptions of broad patterns of
development will serve as a common reference point
for IPCC-related modelling by the global climate
change community. The five different pathways
represent different possible combinations of future
socio-economic challenges both for mitigation and
for adaptation. As depicted in Figure 2, whether the
need to reduce GHGs will prevail over the need to
cope with climate change, will depend on how
evenly future development will be spread across
societies.
In a fragmented world the challenges both for
mitigation and adaptation are maximized (scenario
SSP3). In that case a large share of the population
particularly in the less developed worldwill be left
behind in a state of high vulnerability with very
low or no education at all and excluded from the
technological advancements that would lead to
cleaner and more modern means of energy production. In a less fragmented world, both challenges are
minimized along a sustainable development path
(scenario SSP1). This scenario incorporates green
development and high adaptive capacity, both driven by a rapid expansion in educational attainment
levels. The remaining pathways refer to cases where
either one of the two challenges dominate (SSP4,
SSP5) or there is a balance between them (SSP2).
All these five SSP scenarios have been operationalized for all countries in the world in terms of
specific fertility, mortality, migration, and education

Socio-economic
challenges for mitigation

S74

SSP 5:

SSP 3:

(Mit. challenges dominate)

(High challenges)

Conventional
development

Fragmentation
SSP 2:

(Intermediate challenges)

Middle of the road

SSP 1:
(Low challenges)

Sustainability

SSP 4:
(Adapt. challenges dominate)

Inequality

Socio-economic challenges

Figure 2

The logic behind the SSPs

Interaction of population and climate change

trajectories corresponding to the general SSP narratives (KC and Lutz 2014).
In this paper, we started with the suggestion that
the social sciences can only benefit from seeing
themselves more in terms of intervention sciences,
that is, as a set of theory-and-data-based models able
to produce conditional forecasts of major future
population trends, comparable in nature with the
conditional forecasts that the climate change
research community produces in their Global Circulation Models. Only the combination of these natural science models with social science models that
address future adaptive capacity will allow us to
arrive at science-based insights concerning the dangers posed by climate change for human well-being
under different possible future trajectories.
Finally, the inertia of the human population
system with regard to structural changes actually
carries some good news for the future. We already
know with rather high certainty that at the global
level the population with at least secondary education will double by 2050, leadingwith a somewhat
lower degree of certaintyto the end of population
growth before the end of the twenty-first century
(Lutz and KC 2014). The further we go into the
future, the greater will be the long-term effects of
near-term education efforts in yielding lower fertility, lower mortality and disability, higher income
growth, better chances of moving to green technologies, and higher capacity for adapting to climate
change. A few years ago, in an editorial in the
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Lutz (2009b)
summarized a long-term view of the world based on
human capital under the title Towards a world of 2
6 billion of well-educated and therefore healthy and
wealthy people. Having reviewed the studies mentioned above, a few years later we could now add to
this title: who would be empowered to move
faster to sustainable energy consumption and adapt
better to climate change that is already unavoidable.

Note
1 Erich Striessnig and Wolfgang Lutz are at the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/AW; WU), Schlossplatz 1, A-2361
Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: striess@iiasa.ac.at. Funding
for this work was made possible by an Advanced Grant
of the European Research Council Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change: Grant
agreement ERC-2008-AdG 230195-FutureSoc and the
Wittgenstein Award of the Austrian Science Fund
(FWF): Z171-G11.

S75

2 We thank Raya Muttarak for the summary of various

studies related to human capital and vulnerability/
adaptive capacity.

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