Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
BUY
ABFRL IN EQUITY
Retail
Accounting:
Predictability:
Earnings Momentum:
AMBER
AMBER
AMBER
Catalysts
Performance (%)
ABFRL IN
SENSEX
We build in industry leading revenue growth of 15% over next decade with
industry leading capital employed turnover. At 23x/17x FY18E/FY19E EV/EBITDA,
stock will appear inexpensive gradually as CFO/EBITDA growth picks up in new
platforms. As Pantaloons (50% of stores <3 years old) closes in on Trents
operating metrics using Maduras experience and scale and Forever 21s
potential, investors could start ascribing higher multiples to ABFRL.
Key financials
Year to March
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
60,601
33,051
3,968
(1.4)
-11.0%
32.1
11.6
69,089
38,933
4,848
0.2
1.3%
26.9
11.4
77,962
44,632
5,794
1.0
7.6%
22.6
10.6
90,856
52,506
7,719
2.8
18.8%
16.6
8.8
105,482
61,455
10,016
5.6
29.4%
12.3
6.5
Research Analysts
Abhishek Ranganathan, CFA
+91 22 3043 3085
abhishek.r@ambit.co
Mayank Porwal
+91 22 3043 3214
mayank.porwal@ambit.co
Sep-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Jun-16
May-16
Apr-16
150
130
110
90
70
50
Mar-16
Flags
Jan-16
`110/US$1.6
`129/US$1.9
`142
`182
29
Feb-16
Mcap (bn):
6M ADV (mn):
CMP:
TP (12 mths):
Upside (%):
Dec-15
Recommendation
Oct-15
Nov-15
INITIATING COVERAGE
FY16
FY17E
60,601
69,089
77,962
EBITDA
3,968
4,848
5,794
Depreciation
3,380
2,402
2,606
Interest expense
1,749
2,434
2,434
(1,041)
154
922
Adjusted PBT
Tax
28.55
170.61
(1,041)
126
752
(1,041)
126
752
6.5
7.0
7.4
Company Background
Indian Rayon acquired Madura Garments and its brands
Louis Philippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly and Peter England
from Madura Coats in FY2000.
FY18E
(1.7)
0.2
1.0
32.1
26.9
22.6
(104.8)
867.9
101.7
2.1
1.9
1.7
FY16
FY17E
Total Assets
17,290
20,474
21,373 PBT
Fixed Assets
23,217
26,072
26,443 Depreciation
Current Assets
19,993
22,760
24,626 Tax
Balance Sheet
Cash flow
Investments
Total Liabilities
7,853
10,911
Total networth
9,437
9,563
Total debt
18,493
21,993
21,993 Investment
Current liabilities
17,168
19,988
21,970 CFI
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
(1,041)
154
922
3,380
2,402
2,606
(19)
-28.55
-170.61
(3,482)
(102)
(1,065)
511
4,718
4,558
(11,078)
(5,257)
(2,977)
11,058 CFO
10,314 Capital Expenditure
(4)
(10,991)
(5,114)
(2,809)
Issuance of Equity
6,762
Inc/Dec in Borrowings
5,387
3,500
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
2.1
8.4
-11.0
1.3
(1,764)
(2,434)
(2,434)
2.0
2.3
2.1 CFF
10,422
1,066
(2,434)
(57)
669
(685)
203
872
188
1.9
2.2
(104.8)
867.9
150
10
10
25
8
8
100
50
15
10
-2
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
20
FY16
-4
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
5
-
Page 2
Arvind
ABFRL (Madura)
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
Investment in
e-commerce
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
Began
franchising
EBOs
Pursued own
store
expansion
FY07
FY06
FY04
Continued
wholesale
model
FY03
FY02
FY01
FY00
Integration
after
acquisition
FY05
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
FY12
Page 3
Key metrics
Revenue CAGR 16%
FY00-03
Integration
after
acquisition
FY04-07
Continued
wholesale
model
FY08-11
Pursued own
store expansion
Key developments
Indian Rayon acquired Madura Garments and its 6 brands (incl. Louis Philippe, Van Heusen, Allen Solly
and Peter England) for Rs1,878mn.
Company invested in 2 new retailing formats Trouser town and Planet Fashion.
Paid 2.5% of revenues as royalty for royalty and know-how and a spent staggering 12%/14% of revenues
on brandex (building brand equity and marketing its product extensions which included Louis Philippe and
Van Heusen suits and blazers) in FY01/FY02 and as a result margins dipped from 3.8% in FY01 to 1.6% in
FY02.
Revenues dipped by 8% in FY03 due to a decline in volumes with Peter Englands progress posing
concerns. Margins, as a result dipped to 0.3% and RoCE fell to -6.8% in FY03 from -3.3% in FY02.
Madura expanded its footprint to 0.21mn sq ft with 30 Planet Fashions and 12 Trouser Towns.
Led by strategic initiatives in Peter England by introducing lower price points, Madura managed a
successful turnaround with revenues growing by 20% in FY04 wherein Peter Englands volumes grew by
23%.
EBITDA margin grew by an impressive 560 bps to 5.9% in FY04 led by cost efficiencies and acquisition of
trademarks from its subsidiary and therefore, royalty was not payable henceforth.
Louis Philippe and Peter England became the first Indian brands to cross the Rs1,000mn mark in FY05.
Tied up with Esprit to strengthen its brand portfolio.
Effective media buying and focused advertising led to advertising costs coming down from 10.1% to 6.7%
of revenues and consequently EBITDA margin surged to 12.1% in FY07.
Expanded retail space to 0.31mn sq ft panning 168 stores comprising EBOs, Planet Fashion and Trouser
Town.
Revenue growth during the said phase was led by brand extensions, experimenting with new formats and
expansion with EBOs increasing from 168 in FY07 to 895 by FY11 spread over 1mn sq ft.
Margins during the phase stuttered; a fall from 8.1% in FY08 to -13.8% in FY09 led by high rentals on
increased retail space, prolonged discounting and reduction in footfalls.
The phase saw launch of new formats catering to different markets in the form of People (family store
format) and The Collective (international apparel and accessory brands).
Cost efficiency measures in the form of rent and manpower rationalisation, exit from unviable stores and
rightsizing led to EBITDA margin recovering to 0.6% in FY10.
Despite increasing prices in FY11 to pass on introduction of excise duty on branded garments and increase
in cotton prices, revenues increased by 45% YoY led by 28% growth in volumes.
The uptick in revenues continued during this phase led by same store sales growth and retail expansion.
Sales during the period grew at a CAGR of 20%.
The phase also saw Madura exiting its association with the unprofitable Esprit and launch of online portal
TRENDIN in FY13. EBITDA margin expanded from 8.8% in FY12 to 12% in FY14.
Retail footprint expanded to 2.2mn sq ft in FY14 from 1.3mn sq ft in FY11 with EBOs increasing from 895
in FY11 to 1,541 in FY14.
Area 2.2mn sq ft
Revenue growth 7%
Avg. EBITDA margin 10.8%
FY15-16
Median RoCE 41.3%
Investment in
e-commerce
EBOs 1,877
Revenues in FY16 grew by a meagre 7% largely due to muted consumer sentiment and pressure from ecom.
EBITDA margin fell from 12.4% in FY15 to 9.1% in FY16 as the company invested in building its omnichannel platform and building product extensions and as a consequence RoCE fell to 51% in FY16.
Brands also expanded their reach to more than 3,000 Departmental stores and over 4,000 MBOs.
Area 2.9mn sq ft
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research. Note: RoCE is post-tax
Page 4
Pre-ERP
Post-ERP
70%
90%
22 days
18 days
13.0%
11.7%
55 days
40-45 days
Around 30%
10%
Source: Company
Strengthening of supply chain and process management efforts by the Company also enabled
it to improve dormancy and reduce idle stock in the supply chain, in turn contributing further
towards better divisional performance during the year.
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
Our intent has been to build significant competences in a multitude of areas such as design,
IT, retail and spawning new product categories such as womens wear, formal suits, jackets
and jeans
Besides control over costs, effective supply chain management through SAP further improved
efficiency.
focusing on cost efficiencies through efficient management of discounting and outsourcing
Focused efforts on optimisation of inventory to control discount and dormancy added further
strength
The business is focusing on cost efficiencies by efficient management of discounting, supply
chain and outsourcing.
The business is also laying thrust on cost efficiencies by efficient management of discounting,
supply chain and outsourcing
The business is also laying thrust on achieving cost efficiencies through rent re-negotiation, exit
from unviable stores, manpower rationalisation, efficient supply chain management, improving
inventory turns and reducing overheads.
Focus on rent re-negotiation, manpower rationalisation, exit from unviable stores, overheads
reduction and rightsizing measures led to an improvement of more than Rs150cr in EBITDA
and savings of about Rs75cr in the working capital requirements.
Product innovation, retail excellence and improving service levels will be the key focus areas
for Madura in the direction of differentiating itself from the competition
Led by sound profitable growth and improved working capital management, return on capital
employed grew significantly from 11% to 21%. Over the past two years, Madura has almost
doubled its turnover while managing capital employed at similar levels
Led by sound profitable growth and improved working capital management, return on capital
employed grew significantly from 20% to 29%
Led by sound profitable growth and improved working capital management, return on capital
employed grew significantly from 29% to 64%.
Led by sound profitable growth and improved working capital management, return on capital
employed surged from 64% to 72
Page 5
2,000
3.5
3.0
1,500
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
-
40
30
20
1,000
10
500
1
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY07
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY08
Louis Philippe
Van Heusen
Peter England
FY06
FY10
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY16
Bags and
accessories
Time wear
X-Lifestyle Fashionable
formals
MYFITCustomised
shirts
Fashion formals
Luxure
Van Heusen
women and
Vdot Casuals
V
Casuals
Vdot
Jeans
Van Heusen
Sport
Innerwear
Allen Solly
FY08
Peter England
Peter England
Peter England
Elite
Sporty collection
Party
Allen Solly Kids
Peter England
Bags
Friday DressingWomen
Luxure/Elit
e/Others,
14%
Jeans, 7%
Jeans, 7%
Women,
3%
Women,
5%
Sports, 4%
Mainline,
72%
Mainline,
55%
Sports,
16%
Segment (Casual/Formal)
Brand positioning
Reach (EBOs)
FY11-16 CAGR
Formal
Super Premium
250
17%
Van Heusen
Formal/Casual
Premium
317
17%
Peter England
Formal/Casual
Sub Premium
779
17%
Casual
Premium
220
17%
Louis Philippe
Allen Solly
Page 6
Moderate
High
Competitive intensity
High
Fiercely competitive industry fuelled further by ecommerce, which gives all the brands a level
playing field.
Threat of substitution
Barriers to entry
Low
Moderate
Improving
Unchanged
Deteriorating
Weaknesses
Mens wear business growth prospects will be lower given their high
base.
Formal heavy portfolio (55%) and absence of a strong pure casual wear
(a fast brand in the portfolio limit growth prospects.
Threats
Competitive landscape has changed with foreign brands like Zara and
Page 7
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
-
200
150
100
50
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
30,978
35,993
38,955
COGS
11,947
14,236
15,932
GP
19,031
21,757
23,023
61.4%
60.4%
59.1%
2,953
3,483
3,755
GP Margin
Employee Benefits Expenses
9.5%
9.7%
9.6%
Other Expenses
12,482
14,031
15,769
As a % of sales
40.3%
39.0%
40.5%
As a % of sales
EBITDA
3,596
4,243
3,499
EBITDA margin
11.6%
11.8%
9.0%
860
806
625
2.8%
2.2%
1.6%
2,736
3,438
2,874
8.8%
9.6%
7.4%
Page 8
FY15
FY16
907
(1,041)
Interest
1,773
1,749
Depreciation
2,640
3,380
5,320
4,088
PBT
Adjustments for:
Changes in WC:
Current Investments
60
Inventory
(1,590)
(2,851)
(880)
461
(60)
(424)
90
(36)
Trade Payables
(240)
2,017
(260)
376
170
105
Trade Receivables
Short Term loans and advances
Other Current Assets
2,610
3,735
(1,630)
(2,000)
980
1,735
9.6%
6.5%
49%
94%
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research. Cash flow has been prepared on the basis of pro forma capital
employed statement for FY14 and FY15 provided by ABFRL.
Exhibit 17: ABFRL vs Arvind Ltd better asset turns but poor margins from Pantaloons
ABFRL
Arvind Lifestyle
Brands Ltd.
60,601
26,409
54.5%
48.4%
6.5%
7.6%
9.8%
8.0%
10.7%
7.6%
6.7%
6.1%
4.0%
3.6%
1.0%
3.1%
2.2
2.3
27,930
15,046
21.4
3.1
184
147
24
109
190
188
Page 9
Number of
EBOs
250
69
No. of EBOs in
top 10 cities
140
10,433
317
106
160
Peter England
9,095
779
283
300
Allen Solly
5,992
220
58
100
Collective
1,070
People
1,070
110
Louis Philippe
Van Heusen
Exports + others
No. of cities
1,546
Total
39,964
10000
15%
8000
10%
6000
4000
5%
2000
0
0%
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research Note: Advertisement spend data for Madura is available only till FY09
Others
26%
Others
16%
Trade
26%
Dept. Stores
8%
Retail
44%
Retail
40%
Trade
24%
Dept.
Stores
16%
Page 10
Buy-n-sell
1,800
Consignment
SIS
EBOs
10000
1,600
1,877
8000
1,400
1,200
1,095
6000
3,200
1,000
4000
800
600
393
400
640
200
698
440
2000
4,300
1945
305
FY10
FY13
FY15
FY16
30%
20
25%
15
20%
15%
10
10%
5
5%
0%
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Men
Women-Western
Women-Ethnic
Kids
Madura brands
Licensed/
franchised brands
External brands
Forever 21
Page 11
Store to Design
Max
Pantaloons
Westside
Experience
Mens wear
Kids Wear
Non Apparel
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Page 12
Girls,
9%
Boys, 10%
Womens,
38%
Mens, 43%
Brand extension into womens wear is difficult in India, unlike in the West
The Indian womens wear market is predominantly ethnic wear whereas the mens
wear market has a strong 62% share of western wear (shirts and trousers).
Consequently, prospects of making brand extensions under existing western wear
mens brands are limited. Given Maduras positioning as a mens wear brand,
Pantaloons has helped ABFRL make this extension.
Exhibit 30: Composition of Indian womens wear market
skewed towards ethnic wear
Western
Tops, 3%
Winterwear,
4%
Western
Bottomwear
, 2%
Others, 1%
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
Intimate
Wear, 15%
800
600
Ethnic
Wear, 75%
400
200
0
2012
2013
Lifestyle
Trent
Central
Max
Tier-1
71%
39%
49%
40%
37%
68%
Tier-2 & 3
33%
61%
51%
60%
63%
32%
43
163
78
95
31
111
54
33
58
24
45
Total stores
Number of
28
cities
Source: Ambit Capital research
Page 13
Current Status
Rentals escalated
FY12 there was one time concession from landlords therefore rent
costs jumped in FY13
70%
48%
60%
46%
50%
44%
40%
42%
30%
20%
40%
10%
0%
38%
36%
At the time of
acquisition
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Page 14
120
100
15
80
10
60
40
20
0
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
200
8%
6%
150
4%
100
2%
0%
50
-2%
-4%
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
10
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Page 15
400
350
46
300
45
250
44
200
43
150
42
100
41
50
40
200
150
100
50
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Shirt
T-shirt
Tops/Tees
Trouser/Jeans
Zara
1,990
1,190
799
2,290
H&M
1,299
399
399
1,799
759
329
299
679
Forever 21
Source: Ambit Capital research
Exhibit 41: Zara has been one of the fastest growing fashion apparel brands in India
Revenues (Rs bn) (LHS)
10
30
25
20
15
4
10
0
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Page 16
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
CY15
CY14
CY13
CY12
CY11
CY10
CY09
CY08
CY07
CY06
CY05
CY04
CY03
0
CY02
Page 17
RoE (RHS)
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
CY15
CY14
CY13
CY12
CY11
CY10
CY09
CY08
CY07
CY06
CY05
0%
Pantaloons revenues
Forever 21 revenues
140
120
Rs bn
100
80
60
40
20
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
Page 18
400
8.0
300
7.5
200
7.0
100
6.5
6.0
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research. Note: Stores exclude factory outlets
Pantaloons
Trent (Standalone)
Shoppers Stop
21,645
8,835
14,568
35,373
8,462
8,368
GM
46%
53%
36%
15%
14%
9%
11%
9%
7%
4%
3.4%
2.7%
Opex per sq ft
7,933
7,042
7,555
EBITDA per sq ft
902
1,420
814
10%
17%
10%
1,200
1,399*
1,238
5%
7%
6%
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research, * included e-commerce costs whereas there was no contribution on
revenues
25
20
4
15
3
10
2
5
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
Page 19
Non Apps
14%
Kids
9%
Men
35%
Men
36%
Woman
Ethnic
20%
Woman
Ethnic
19%
Woman
Western
23%
Woman
Western
25%
140
10
120
100
80
60
40
2
20
0
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
Exhibit 51: ABFRLs capital employed turns will improve as 60% of it is goodwill
Capital Employed turns (x) (LHS)
20
25
20
15
15
10
10
5
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
Page 20
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
Exhibit 53: EBITDA margins improvement will be led by Pantaloons and Forever 21
Madura EBITDA Margins
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
-5%
Source: Ambit Capital research
Page 21
12
14
13
10
13
8
12
12
11
11
2
10
10
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
DCF valuation
Our DCF value of Rs182 per share factors in significant margin improvement as well
as debt repayment from FY19E. We assume 17% revenue FY16-19E CAGR (14%
excluding Forever 21) with Madura delivering only 10% CAGR. We assume cash
generation remains at 90% despite the fast turning value fashion and fast fashion
driving growth. The debt which was a part Pantaloons acquisition doesnt represent
the companys ability to fund its own growth. We expect the company to be debt-free
by FY22E as capex intensity reduces.
Exhibit 55: Healthy free cash flows led by cash flow
generation
CFO (Rs bn) (LHS)
10
8
20
6
4
15
10
-2
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
-4
Source: Ambit Capital research
FY19E
FY20E
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
FY22E
Page 22
Multiple
(x)
20
18
Forever 21
Revenues
(Rs mn)
EBITDA (FY19)
Rs mn
EV
4,783
95,659
2,682
48,274
7,700
15,400
EV (Rs mn)
159,333
Debt
19,116
140,217
182
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Revenues
Rs mn
61,610
69,089
77,962
90,856
Comments
Madura
39,964
42,362
46,598
53,448
Pantaloons
21,646
26,727
31,364
37,408
Forever 21
2,500
3,400
5,300
7,700
Gross Margin:
54.5%
53.7%
53.6%
53.3%
Madura
59.8%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
Pantaloons
45%
Driven by retail expansion and SSG of 15% (still lower than Zara)
46%
46%
46%
-135
254
6.7%
6.4%
6.2%
6.2%
3,968
4,848
5,794
7,719
6.4%
7.0%
7.4%
8.5%
1,877
2,027
2,177
2,277
Pantaloons
163
213
253
293
Forever 21
12
16
20
24
Madura
1,056
1,056
704
Pantaloons
2,109
1,704
1,721
Capex
Forever 21
216
216
216
11,104
5,257
2,977
2,642
Inventory days
184
165
160
154
Creditor days
126
116
110
110
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.8
10.9
11.6
11.7
12.6
1.9
2.2
2.1
1.5
2.1%
8.2%
10.0%
15.2%
Total
Peer comparison
Trent (standalone) with its improving operations in women-centric Westside (sales per
sq ft improved from Rs7,200 per sq ft in FY11 to Rs8,700 per sq ft in FY16) and
EBITDA margins expanded from 4% to 8.5%. This, coupled with 35% CAGR revenue
and 40% EBITDA growth in Zara over FY11-16, was instrumental in re-rating of the
stock.
Page 23
Pantaloons Fashion
Trent (Standalone)
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
EBIT margins
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research. Note: Size of the bubble indicates Share of own label.
Ted Baker has commanded premium valuations (5-year mean of 30x EV/EBITDA) with
growth sustained by mix change and RoE (due to working capital management).
ABFRL trades at a discount to Ted Baker due to its current RoE profile of -11%.
However, growth driven by Pantaloons and Forever 21 not only justifies valuations of
23x FY18E EV/EBITDA but will also possibly elevate its valuation closer to Ted Bakers.
Exhibit 60: Ted Bakers EV/EBITDA
Ted Baker's EV/EBITDA (x)
Oct-16
Jul-16
Apr-16
Jan-16
Oct-15
Jul-15
Apr-15
Jan-15
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Exhibit 61: Ted Bakers mix change helped it sustain growth as well as RoE
Ted Baker's Womenswear revenues ( mn ) (LHS)
Ted Baker's Menswear revenues ( mn) (LHS)
RoE (RHS)
500
40%
400
30%
300
20%
200
10%
100
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
FY07
FY06
0%
FY05
Page 24
Mcap
EV/EBITDA (X)
P/E (X)
US$ mn
FY17E
FY18E
ABFRL
1,870
27
23
Arvind Ltd.
1,365
10
994
28
Shoppers Stop
467
15
Raymond Ltd.
543
10
Kewal Kiran
Clothing Ltd.
353
FY16 FY17E
Revenue EBITDA
RoE (%)
EPS
RoCE (%)
FY16
Indian players
Trent Ltd.
1,350
115
54
14
25
NA
18
-7
22
22
16
14
11
19
13
11
13
14
13
20
107
45
34
27
50
72
10
12
12
123
49
34
15
18
69
10
12
39
25
17
20
50
11
11
18
15
35
26
24
16
19
20
22
26
24
24
22
22,628
12
11
19
17
15
12
22
25
29
15
15
9,146
11
10
16
17
15
13
11
11
Global players
VF Corp.
PVH Corp.
Hugo Boss
3,928
11
16
14
-3
-5
35
23
27
Ted Baker
1,451
14
13
2,566
2,315
2,034
12
13
13
28
NA
NA
24
23
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research. Note: Raymond Ltd.s and Kewal Kiran Clothing Ltd.s Revenue, EBITDA and EPS CAGR are for FY16-FY18E.
Page 25
Catalysts
Turnaround in Pantaloons: With SSG above 9% over FY17-19E, EBITDA margins of
Pantaloons will improve by 200bps and sustain ABFRLs margins despite initial losses
of Forever 21.
Cash generation and de-leveraging: Sustained operating cash flow will help fund
incremental capex, maintain absolute debt levels till FY18E and thereafter help deleveraging from FY19E.
Exhibit 63: Explanation of flags
Segment
Score
Comments
Accounting
AMBER
ABFRL has a decent cash conversion ratio of 82% (ex-merger) as against 69% for peers in addition to
tight control over working capital (FY16; 82 days).
Predictability
AMBER
In FY16, the company missed margin guidance on Madura due to disruption by e-commerce. However it
has met its guidance on Pantaloons.
Earnings momentum
AMBER
Consensus EPS estimates have been lowered post 1QFY17 earnings on the back of muted consumer
sentiment.
Page 26
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
Share capital
7,694
7,694
7,694
7,694
1,706
1,831
2,583
4,722
Total Networth
9,437
9,563
10,314
12,453
18,493
21,993
21,993
20,093
Minority Interest
Sources of funds
27,930
31,556
32,307
32,546
Net block
23,217
26,072
26,443
26,297
254
254
254
254
Loans
Capital work-in-progress
Investments
Cash and bank balances
Sundry debtors
Inventories
Loans and advances
203
872
188
977
3,909
4,457
5,029
5,861
13,881
15,153
16,887
19,479
1,754
1,998
2,205
2,438
246
280
316
368
19,993
22,760
24,626
29,124
17,168
19,988
21,970
26,173
5,535
6,376
6,903
7,501
27,930
31,556
32,307
32,546
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
60,601
69,089
77,962
90,856
Income statement
Year to March (Rs mn)
Revenue
yoy growth
Total expenses
EBITDA
yoy growth
Net depreciation
EBIT
Interest and financial charges
Other income
14%
13%
17%
56,632
67,641
77,468
90,837
3,968
4,848
5,794
7,719
22%
20%
33%
3,380
2,402
2,606
2,788
588
2,446
3,188
4,931
1,749
2,434
2,434
2,224
120
143
168
187
(1,041)
154
922
2,895
28.55
170.61
756
(1,041)
Adj PBT
yoy growth
Consolidated reported PAT
126
752
2,138
-112%
497%
185%
(1,041)
126
752
2,138
(1.4)
0.2
1.0
2.8
(1.4)
0.2
1.0
2.8
Page 27
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
(1,041)
154
922
2,895
3,380
2,402
2,606
2,788
(75)
(143)
(168)
(187)
1,749
2,434
2,434
2,224
4,013
4,848
5,794
7,719
(3,482)
(102)
(1,065)
405
PBT
Depreciation
Others
Interest paid
(19)
(29)
(171)
(756)
CFO
511
4,718
4,558
7,368
(11,078)
(5,257)
(2,977)
(2,642)
Net capex
Net investments
(4)
Interest received
61
143
168
187
CFI
(10,991)
(5,114)
(2,809)
(2,455)
5,387
3,500
(1,900)
6,762
(1,764)
(2,434)
(2,434)
(2,224)
10,422
1,066
(2,434)
(4,124)
(57)
669
(685)
790
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
14
13
17
Ratio analysis
Year to March (%)
Revenue growth
EBITDA growth
22
20
33
PAT growth
(112)
497
185
(112)
497
185
EBITDA margin
6.5
7.0
7.4
8.5
EBIT margin
1.0
3.5
4.1
5.4
Net margin
-1.7
0.2
1.0
2.4
RoCE (pre-tax)
2.1
8.2
10.0
15.2
RoCE (post-tax)
2.1
6.7
8.1
11.2
RoIC
2.1
8.4
10.2
15.5
-11.0
1.3
7.6
18.8
FY16
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
P/E (x)
(104.8)
867.9
101.7
51.1
P/B(x)
11.6
11.4
10.6
8.8
Debt/Equity(x)
2.0
2.3
2.1
1.6
Net debt/Equity(x)
1.9
2.2
2.1
1.5
EV/Sales(x)
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.4
32.1
26.9
22.6
16.6
RoE
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research
Valuation parameters
Year to March
EV/EBITDA(x)
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research
Page 28
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Page 29
Jun-16
Apr-16
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Page 30
BUY
>10%
SELL
NO STANCE
<10%
We have forward looking estimates for the stock but we refrain from assigning valuation and recommendation
UNDER REVIEW
We will revisit our recommendation, valuation and estimates on the stock following recent events
NOT RATED
We do not have any forward looking estimates, valuation or recommendation for the stock
POSITIVE
We have a positive view on the sector and most of stocks under our coverage in the sector are BUYs
NEGATIVE
We have a negative view on the sector and most of stocks under our coverage in the sector are SELLs
Disclaimer
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and, in some cases, in printed form.
Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
Disclaimer
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