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EQUITY RESEARCH

June 02, 2008 Singapore


Asia Telecom Services
SingTel (STEL.SI - SGD 3.81) 1-Overweight
Company Update Paul Wuh
852.2252.6182
Key takeaways from SingTel NDR paul.wuh@lehman.com
LBAL, Hong Kong

Investment Conclusion
‰ After our non deal roadshow with SingTel FY Mar 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E
management, we are maintaining our 1-OW Currency SGD Actual Old New Old New Old New
investment opinion as well as our 12-month target Revenue 14839 15468 15468 15798 15798 16039 16039
price of $4.50/share based on a SOTP valuation. EBITDA 4530 4701 4701 4788 4788 4820 4820
EBITDA margin 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.1
Summary Recurring NP 3615 4403 4403 4825 4825 5172 5172
‰ We believe EBITDA margins in Singapore will Recurring EPS 0.23 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.33 0.33
remain under pressure during 1Q09 from higher P/E (Recurring) 16.4 13.6 13.6 12.4 12.4 11.6 11.6
mobile acquisition costs ahead of the introduction EV/EBITDA 7.9 N/A 7.4 N/A 7.0 N/A 6.9
of number portability in June. FCF Yield (%) 6.1 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.1 7.5 7.5
‰ Optus will focus on cap plans to encourage more
Market Data Financial Summary
fixed to mobile substitution. Capex and opex likely
to be high to build out 3G network to 96% pop Market Cap (mn) 60660 3-Yr EPS Growth(%) 12.7
coverage by Dec 08. Market Cap (US$ mn) 44387 3-Yr EBITDA Growth(%) 2.1
‰ Instead of one-time capital reductions, SingTel will
Shares Outstanding (mn) 15921.2 Current BVPS 1.3
focus on higher annual payout ratios.
‰ SingTel is still interested in acquisitions in 6mth Daily T/O (US$ mn) 76.14 Debt-to-Equity(%) 35.2
developing markets but thinks that the Free float (%) 34.00 Gearing 26.0
privatization of mobile companies in Vietnam Share per ADR N/A PEG Ratio 1.3
might continue to be delayed. SingTel is willing to Dividend Yield (%) 2.62
increase leverage for acquisitions but will maintain Stock Overview
its investment grade status. 4.20
30/5/08x10-4
14.50 Reuters STEL.SI
‰ Associate growth will be lower in FY09 due to 4.00 14.00 Bloomberg ST SP
competitive pressures in Indonesia and a full-year 13.50
3.80 ADR
consolidation of Warid in Pakistan. 3.60
13.00
12.50
3.40
12.00 Performance 1M 3M 12M
3.20
11.50 Absolute % -1.3 -1.0 7.6
Stock Rating Target Price 3.00
11.00
2.80 Rel. Market % -1.7 -5.2 17.2
10.50
New: 1-Overweight New: SGD 4.50 2.60 10.00 Rel. Sector % 0.0 0.0 0.0
Old: 1-Overweight Old: SGD 4.50 2.40 9.50
2.20 9.00
Sector View: M J J A S ON D J FM AM J J A S ON D J F MAM 52 Week Range 4.10 - 3.30
1-Positive SINGAPORE TELECOM
T:TELC/SNGPORI(R.H.SCALE)
Source: DATASTREA

We spent the past week with SingTel’s management on a non-deal roadshow (NDR) to meet with investors in North America. After this
NDR, we are maintaining our 1-OW investment opinion as well as our $4.50/share 12-month target price based on a sum-of-the parts
valuation.

In this note, we present answers provided by SingTel management for key questions asked by investors during the road
show:

Q: What are SingTel’s thoughts regarding returning capital to investors?

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analysts with FINRA.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S) ON PAGE 4 AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES


INCLUDING FOREIGN AFFILIATE DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 5
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EQUITY RESEARCH
A: SingTel has increased its dividend payout guidance to 45% to 60% for FY09 from 40% to 50% last year. The company would rather
increase its regular dividend payouts rather than having more one-time capital reductions—as more stable regular dividends tend to
have a more positive impact on the share price performance over an extended period, according to the company.

SingTel’s decision not to pay out a one-time capital reduction for 2H 08 was partially due to this thought process. In addition, SingTel
wants to maintain its cash position for potential acquisitions.

Q: What are SingTel’s thoughts on future acquisitions?

A: SingTel is focused on acquisitions where the company can take a meaningful equity position and where it can have an impact on the
operations of the company. The company does not want to take an interest in a company as a portfolio investment (as Vodafone has
done with its investment in China Mobile). Moreover, SingTel will remain disciplined in its approach to evaluating synergies and value
creation potential for any acquisition. SingTel is wiling to increase its debt level for the right acquisition at a compelling valuation level
but intends to maintain its investment grade rating.

SingTel’s management indicated that it has become much more difficult to find compelling investment opportunities in developing
market wireless companies at attractive valuation levels. In addition, there are many more investors looking for wireless investments
than when SingTel made its first investments in SE Asia and India. Although the level of interest from private equity investors for
wireless assets has declined recently (given the difficulty with these PE firms to secure funding), there remains a great deal of interest
from Middle Eastern and Russian companies. SingTel would not be willing to go on a bidding war with any of these potential investors.

Q: What about the opportunity for SingTel to invest in a mobile network in Vietnam?

A: SingTel (along with many other foreign telcos) remains interested making an investment in the Vietnamese mobile market. However,
the mobile assets are still state-owned and the potential privatization has been delayed numerous times. Currently, the Vietnamese
stock market has been very weak and this has further complicated the telecom privatization process.

Q: What are SingTel’s thoughts on MTN and its acquisition strategy?

A: MTN has had many discussions with a variety of international mobile companies over the past year including Bharti, China Mobile,
and other Indian wireless carriers. SingTel has mentioned publicly that it is interested in making investments in countries in
“neighboring markets” including SE Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. As with any potential acquisition, SingTel would take a disciplined
look at the economics of an investment in MTN by SingTel (or any of its associates). SingTel’s management did not make any specific
comments related to MTN’s recent discussions with Bharti or the withdrawal from negotiations.

Q: Any comments on the introduction of the iPhone into any SingTel market?

A: At this point, SingTel is bound to a confidentiality agreement with Apple and has not comments other than to say that it expects the
iPhone to be available to its affiliated companies in Singapore, Australia, and India before the end of this year. There was no
commentary on handset subsidies or revenue sharing agreements. However, SingTel believes that the iPhone will be popular in
Singapore market where data revenues represented 33% of SingTel’s mobile ARPUs during the quarter ending March 08. Moreover,
given that Singapore is a WCDMA market where 60% of SingTel’s postpaid subs are using 3G phones, a 3G WCDMA iPhone would be
particularly well received.

Q: What is the update with the KPPU and the court decision in Indonesia regarding SingTel and Temasek?

A: SingTel does not agree with the KPPU decision and has appealed the decision to the Indonesian Supreme Court. It is unclear how
long it will take for the court to make a decision—it could take from two months to two years for the Supreme Court to make a final
judgment in this matter.

Q: What about competition in the Indonesian wireless market?

A: Although Indosat has improved its coverage outside of Java, Telkomsel still has the best wireless network in Indonesia. SingTel
indicated that it remains difficult for the competitors to build out coverage to the many islands of Indonesia especially given the poor
telephone and electrical infrastructure in these areas. However, competitors have improved coverage and SingTel expects the wireless
pricing pressure in the Indonesian market to be worse during the next 12 month period. In fact, SingTel’s guidance for its associates’
earnings growth during FY09 is lower than for FY08—partially as a result of increased competition in the Indonesian market.

Q: What is SingTel’s mobile strategy ahead of the introduction of mobile number portability in June?

A: SingTel reported 244K net adds during 4Q 08 (ending March 08) due to the company’s focus on securing subscribers ahead of the
introduction of MNP in June. By the end of March, the company had signed over 80% of its contract subscribers up for new contracts
and will continue to focus on securing these existing customers ahead of MNP. As a result, the company expect mobile acquisition
costs to continue to be high during 1Q 09. The other two carriers are also spending more on acquisition costs to secure their sub bases
as well. SingTel currently has about a 45% postpaid market share (versus around 30% each for Starhub and M1) in Singapore and
hopes to maintain this level to keep competition from becoming too aggressive.

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Q: What is SingTel’s strategy regarding MioTV (IPTV) in Singapore?

A: SingTel currently has about 44K MioTV subs (2% of the market) after introducing the service in July 2007. SingTel’s management
believes that there is room in the market for more than one operator for the S$250 mn pay-TV market in Singapore. Most of the 44K
MioTV customers have both Starhub and SingTel’s pay-TV service. Given that there is still a significant amount of exclusive TV content
and it will take two to three years before some of that content is up for renewal, SingTel’s management recognizes the challenges it
faces to break into this market. However, given that SingTel has a 54% broadband market share, the company believes that it will be
able to attract some of these customers to its MioTV service as more compelling TV content becomes available over time. SingTel has
already secured exclusive rights to broadcast Champion League Soccer.

Q: Why will capex in Singapore increase to mid-teens percentage of revenues for FY09?

A: SingTel will spend more to improve its mobile network capacity given the stronger subscriber growth. The company also intends to
spend more on its 3G network to improve the data speed to 14 MB by the end of the year. Moreover, SingTel needs to spend more on
its fixed-line broadband network to improve transmission speeds for IPTV and broadband—to better compete against Starhub.

Q: What is the timing for the FTTH national broadband network in Singapore?

A: SingTel has a 30% equity-interest in a consortium that is bidding for the network build out for the national broadband network. The
winning consortium would be eligible to receive up to S$750 mn to help build out this network. A decision on which bidder would build
out the network is likely to be made by August/September. SingTel indicated that its Singapore capex might need to be increased
depending on if the SingTel consortium wins this bid.

Q: What is Optus’ strategy to compete against Telstra?

A: On the mobile side, the company has decided to increase capital expenditures to improve its 3G coverage to 98% population
coverage by December 09. Optus had 68% at the end of March 08 and plans to increase this to 96% by the end of December 08. The
final 2% incremental coverage will take an additional 12 months given that it would be in areas that Optus does not currently provide
mobile coverage in these areas. Optus’ management admits that Telstra has been able to take advantage of this coverage discrepancy
to gain more high-end subscribers who place a higher value on network coverage.

Optus is also continuing to focus on capped plans (which represented 36% of its postpaid subs by March 08). Optus believes that
these bucket plans will encourage more fixed-to-mobile substitution in Australia—which will help the company gain share in the overall
telephony market against Telstra. Most of these subs on cap plans are on two-year contracts.

Q: What is the update on fiber to the node (FTTN) contract in Australia?

A: The new government in Australia has indicated that potential bidders for the FTTN contract would be given 12 weeks from the time
that Telstra provides the detailed information required for the bidders to make an optimal bid decision. Optus views this decision as a
positive for its G9 consortium. However, it will still need to evaluate the economics of any bid to make sure that the government’s $4.7
bn support would make economic sense.

Figure 1: Sum of the Parts valuation for SingTel

Source: Lehman Brothers estimates

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Analyst Certification:
I, Paul Wuh, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research Company Note accurately reflect my personal views about any
or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Company Note and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Company Note.

Company Description:
SingTel is the incumbent telco in Singapore, and holds a basket of stakes in leading regional cellular operators, plus it owns Optus,
Australia's number two cellular and fixed line operator.

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EQUITY RESEARCH
Important Disclosures:
SingTel (STEL.SI) SGD 3.81 (30-May-2008) 1-Overweight / 1-Positive
Rating and Price Target Chart:

Currency=SGD
Date Closing Price Rating Price Target Date Closing Price Rating Price Target
06-Oct-07 4.02 4.50 07-Dec-06 2.98 3.23
13-Sep-07 3.68 4.30 08-Nov-06 2.85 3.15
14-Aug-07 3.50 4.10 18-Oct-06 2.50 3.00
09-Jul-07 3.46 4.00 26-Sep-05 2.61 3.26
19-Jan-07 3.40 3.90 26-Sep-05 2.61 1 -Overweight
16-Jan-07 3.48 3.45 05-May-05 2.74 2.79
FOR EXPLANATIONS OF RATINGS REFER TO THE STOCK RATING KEYS LOCATED ON THE PAGE FOLLOWING THE LAST PRICE CHART.
Lehman Brothers Inc. and/or an affiliate trade regularly in the shares of SingTel.
Valuation Methodology: We value Singtel using a sum-of-the-parts and discounted-cash-flow methodology. We base its associate
stakes in Bharti, Telkomsel and AIS at our target price. We value its local business on DCF with 8% WACC and 0.5% TGR. We value
Optus on DCF with 8.0% WACC and 1% TGR.
Risks Which May Impede the Achievement of the Price Target: The Australian mobile phone business is getting increasingly
competitive, with Voda and Hutch keen for users. This could lead to Optus earnings not reaching our estimate of flatness over the next
few years.

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EQUITY RESEARCH
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Company Name Ticker Price (30-May-2008) Stock / Sector Rating


SingTel STEL.SI SGD 3.81 1-Overweight / 1-Positive

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