Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

Transport scenarios in two metropolitan cities

in India: Delhi and Mumbai
Anjana Das, Jyoti Parikh

Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Gen. A.K. Vaidya Marg, Goregaon East, Mumbai 400 065, India
Received 1 March 2002; received in revised form 28 July 2003; accepted 19 August 2003
Available online 15 April 2004

Abstract
With rising population and increasing migration to the cities, it is expected that the urban population
will increase and many more metropolitan cities will arise. Urban transport will also increase due to the
high growth in population, travel demand and vehicles. In this paper, we look at the growth in vehicles and
travel demand up to 2020, assuming business as usual, high GDP growth and low GDP growth scenarios
for Mumbai and Delhi assuming a certain population growth. The consequent energy needs and local and
global environment implications are studied.
The case studies demonstrate that despite similar population and higher per capita GDP, due to the
higher share of public bus transport and suburban railway system, the Mumbai transport results in 60% less
energy and emissions compared to Delhi. This picture may change in the future with the introduction of
metro in Delhi, but basic dierences remain even in 2020, perhaps also due to the dierent urban design.
The vehicle stock increases nearly three times in both cities in 23 years due to the increase in population,
migration and economic growth. However, the vehicle ownership per 1000 persons only doubles and is far
lower in 2020, even compared to the present world average ownership. Emissions, however, do not rise as
much due to the introduction of more ecient vehicles and fuels, such as CNG or battery operated vehicles.
The high share of public transport also helps. The eects of various policies, such as urban design, suburban
railway system, transport management, control practices, etc. are very important.

2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Urban transport; Metropolis transport; Transport alternatives; India; Delhi; Mumbai; Local and global
emissions

Corresponding author. Tel.: +91-22-840-2754; fax: +91-22-840-2752.

E-mail address: jparikh@igidr.ac.in (J. Parikh).

0196-8904/$ - see front matter
2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enconman.2003.08.019

2604

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

1. Introduction
An urban transport system is one of the most critical infrastructures for urban development.
Despite years of planning, India has been unable to address the serious ineciencies prevailing in
urban transportation. In many of the cities in India, the population doubles in a decade or a little
more. In contrast, roads and other transport infrastructure have grown at a much slower pace.
About 1215% of the national outlay is allocated to the transport sector. Unfortunately, much of
this is diverted towards construction of national highways and augmenting capacity in the railways, leaving very little for the needs of urban transportation, much of which is in the hands of
municipalities that have very little funds at their disposal.
Lack of eective policy and investment, along with uncontrolled urbanization growth, has
resulted in gross discrepancies between supply and demand of transport services. The inadequate
public transport system has led to a tremendous rise in personal vehicles. At the same time, road
space has not grown proportionately leading to more congestion, longer travel time and more
energy consumption, which increases costs and pollution. The use of poor quality fuels and bad
road conditions aggravate all of the above problems further.
Pollution levels in all Indian metros have reached very high levels. Delhi is the fourth most
polluted city in the world, while a number of other cities in the country are following closely
behind. The transport sector is the dominant contributor to urban pollution. In 199394, the
share of vehicles in the total pollutant load was as high as 64% in Delhi and 52% in Mumbai.
Subsequently, this share in Delhi increased further to 70% [1]. The concern has increased so much
that these levels are being broadcast on a daily basis in TV channels.
A substantial increase in vehicle stocks and a large number of old, inecient, ill-maintained and
obsolete vehicles result in emission of vast quantities of pollutants annually in gaseous and
particulate forms into the atmosphere.
To curb the pollution generated from transport activity, the Delhi Government has adopted
several measures, such as implementation of more stringent emission norms for vehicles, retirement of old vehicles from the roads, implementation of a Metro Rapid Transport Service
(MRTS), fuel substitution with compressed natural gas, supply of better quality fuel, etc. The
Municipal Corporation of Mumbai is also considering similar measures.
The present study analyses the urban transportation demand for these two cities and then
estimates the energy demand and emissions from the transport sector considering the pollution
abatement measures that have already been taken or are being considered by the planners of the
two cities. Section 2 presents the methodology adopted for the analysis. The results have been
analysed in Section 3. Finally, Section 4 presents the conclusions from the study.

2. Methodology
Fig. 1 illustrates the methodology used to estimate the energy demand and emissions from the
transport system. It has three components:
1. Econometric model to project the vehicle stock,
2. Spread sheet model to estimate the travel demand met by dierent vehicle types,

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2605

Time series data on

GDP, population,
passenger and goods
vehicles (by type),

Assumption on future
growth rate of GDP and
Population
Econometric model

Projected
vehicle stock
Assumptions on future
vehicle type and
technology penetration

Attrition, occupancy and

utilization factor by
vehicle type
Spread-sheet model

Projected travel
demand (in PKMS and
TKMS) met by
different vehicle type

Specific fuel consumption

(GJ/pkm or tkm) by vehicle
type and technology

Energy demand
(by fuel type)

LEAP Model

Emission factor (g/g of

fuel) for vehicle type and
technology

Emissions (by
pollutant type)

Fig. 1. Projecting energy demand and emissions for urban transport system.

3. Long range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model to estimate energy demand and emissions from the transport system.
The following sections discuss how each component is used to estimate the energy demand and
emissions nally.
2.1. Econometric model
The econometric model is used to project the vehicle stock in the two cities. Separate equations
are used to estimate each vehicle type (two wheeler, car/jeep, three wheeler, taxi, bus and
goods vehicles) since the determinants for acquiring the dierent vehicles are dierent. To project
the private vehicles, like two wheeler and car/jeep, the number of vehicles per capita has been

2606

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

correlated with income per capita, while in the case of public/commercial vehicles, the total
number of registered vehicles per year has been regressed against the GDP of the city in that year.
The choice of these variables and equations (linear/log, etc.) is based on the statistical signicance
of the various estimating relationships (t-statistic, R2 , etc.). Time series data for the period 1980
1997 have been used for both cities. The Bombay Metropolitan Region Development Authority
(BMRDA) has estimated the domestic product of Mumbai for three years, viz. 1981, 1985 and
1990 [2]. For all these three years, it has been shown to be about 23% of the total state domestic
product of Maharashtra. The same percentage has been applied to the state domestic product to
generate the domestic product of Mumbai city for other years. The data source for the domestic
product of Delhi state is various issues of the Economic Survey [3]. Projections have been
made for the years 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. The equations for the dierent types of vehicles,
obtained from the exercise, that are used for future projections are given below for Delhi and
Mumbai.
Delhi
Two wheeler
2Wh=Capt
0:13 0:0000526 Inc=Capt ;

5:31

9:96

R2 0:87

Car
Car=Capt
0:0666 0:0000223 Inc=Capt ;

9:51

14:8

R2 0:93

Three wheeler
R2 0:95

3Wht
14696 15:97 GDPt ;

3:74

17:36

Taxi
Taxit 3133:7 1:67 GDPt ;

R2 0:93

Bust
1524:7 4:76 GDPt ;

R2 0:96

6:27

14:31

Bus

1:50

20:0

Truck
Truckt
18704 25:456 GDPt ;

4:41

25:60

R2 0:98

Mumbai
Two wheeler
log2Wh=Capt
15:277 1:308 logInc=Capt ;

8:09

5:98

R2 0:67

Car
logCar=Capt
12:38 0:956 logInc=Capt ;

11:33

7:86

R2 0:92

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2607

Three wheeler
3Wht
18854 8:21 GDPt ;

2:65

7:20

R2 0:83

Taxi
Taxit 23821 1:87 GDPt ;
8:88

4:48

R2 0:69

10

Bus
logBust
15:17 0:97 logGDPt ;

10:27

16:31

R2 0:94

11

Truck
Truckt 27658 3:34 GDPt ;
14:47

8:92

R2 0:86

12

where (2Wh/Cap)t is the number of two wheelers per capita in the year t, (Inc/Cap)t is the income
(Rs) per capita in the year t (at 1980/81 constant prices), (Car/Cap)t is the number of cars per
capita in the year t, 3Wht is the number of three wheelers in the year t, GDPt is the GDP (in Rs.
crore, 1 crore 107 ) of the city in the year t at 1980/1981 constant prices, Taxit is the number of
taxis in the year t, Bust is the number of buses in the year t and Truckt is the number of trucks in
the year t. The gures in parentheses are t-statistic values.
2.2. Spread sheet model
Once the number of vehicles stocks for a particular year has been determined by using the
econometric equations, an attrition factor is applied to estimate the number of vehicles that
actually exist in that year. The penetration of dierent vehicle types and technologies, as planned
by the concerned City Planning Agency or the Government for the future transport system of the
corresponding city, has been taken into account. Eq. (13) is used to estimate the total passenger or
freight travel demand in a year t for city i.
X
Vjit Ojit Ujit  365 j 1; . . . ; 5
13
PKMit or TKMit
where, PKMit is the passenger travel demand in the year t in the city i (measured in passenger
kilometers). TKMit is the freight travel demand in the year t in the city i (measured in tonne
kilometers). There is no summation because all trucks are considered as one type. Vjit is the
number of vehicles of type/technology j in the year t in the city i. Ojit is the occupancy or utilization factor (measured in number of persons per vehicle per trip) for the year t of the vehicle of
type j in the city i. Ujit is the utilization factor (kilometers traveled by a vehicle per day) for the
year t of the vehicle of type j in the city i. i is the Mumbai and Delhi, t 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020,
j 1 two wheeler, 2 three wheeler, 3 car, 4 taxi, 5 bus.
2.3. LEAP model
The LEAP model is a computer based accounting tool, used widely to estimate the energy
demand and emission levels under dierent policy scenarios [4]. Travel demand by vehicle type

2608

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

and technology that has been estimated in Component 2 is fed to the LEAP model along with the
vehicle-wise energy eciency (fuel consumption/passenger kilometer or tonne kilometer) and
emission factor to analyse the energy demand and pollution from the city transport system.
Pollutants considered are CO, HC, NOx , SO2 , lead and particulates.
2.4. Scenarios and assumptions
Three scenarios are considered: (1) business as usual scenario (BAU), (2) high GDP growth rate
scenario (HGS) and (3) low GDP growth rate scenario (LGS). The assumptions in these scenarios
are as follows.
2.4.1. BAU scenario
India has achieved a high economic growth path after introduction of economic reforms in
1991. No projection on long term economic growth for Delhi is available. Therefore, for Delhi,
the observed annual GDP growth during 19921997 of 5.6% has been assumed for the entire time
horizon of 19982020. The annual growth rate of population has been taken as 3.8% for the
period 19982006 and 2% for the rest of the time horizon [5]. Similarly, for Mumbai also, the
actual GDP growth rate of 6.6% that was registered during 19921997 is assumed to continue till
2020. For the entire time horizon, the population growth rate of 1.2% is taken, as estimated by the
BMRDA for the period 19962021 for Greater Mumbai [2].
Assumptions on attrition factors are obtained from Ref. [6]. The assumptions concerning
penetration of new technologies in future years for the dierent vehicle types are given in Table 1.
We used a constant set of gures for vehicle occupancy factor and utilization rate, obtained from

Table 1
Penetration of technology by vehicle type (share (%) of the technology in new vehicles added during the period)
Vehicle type
Passenger
Two wheeler
Car

Three wheeler

Taxi

Bus
Freight
LCV
HCV

Technology

Fuel used

20002005

20062010

20112015

20162020

2-Stroke
4-Stroke
Gasoline
Diesel
CNG
Gasoline
CNG
Battery
Gasoline
Diesel
CNG
Diesel
CNG

Gasoline
Gasoline
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural Gas
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Electricity
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural gas
Diesel
Natural gas

50
50
87
8
5
50
25
25
50

50

100

30
70
90

10

100
85

15

100
80

20

50
50
50

50

100

50
50
50

50

100

50
50
50

50

100

Diesel
Diesel

100
100

100
100

100
100

100
100

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2609

an earlier study conducted by TERI [4]. However, we recognize that these two parameters have a
signicant bearing on travel demand and emissions.
It has been stated earlier that the MRTS is under implementation in Delhi. We consider
implementation of the rst phase of the MRTS by 2005, which will carry 3.2 million passengers
per day [1]. In addition, we assumed completion of the second phase of the MRTS with an
additional capacity of 3.2 million passengers per day in 2015. It should be noted that the present
study limits the energy demand and emission analysis to the motorized transport system only and
does not include the MRTS. The expected passenger kilometers to be traveled by the MRTS has
been subtracted from the total passenger travel demand. To estimate the reduction in motorized
passenger kilometer demand in 2005 due to the passenger shifts from bus or personalized mode to
the MRTS, the following assumptions are made:
1. 2.4 Million bus passengers will shift to the MRTS to ll 75% of its carrying capacity.
2. 0.4 Million users of two wheelers will shift to the MRTS to ll 12.5% of its carrying capacity.
3. 0.4 Million users of cars will shift to the MRTS to ll its remaining carrying capacity.
Similar patterns of passenger shifts have been assumed for Phase II also. The reductions in the
number of buses, cars and two wheelers due to the passenger shifts in Phases I and II of the
MRTS have been presented in Table 2. The passenger kilometers demand of these number of
buses, cars or two wheelers are subtracted from the respective total projected passenger kilometer
demand to determine the motorized passenger kilometer demand, net of the passengers carried by
the MRTS.
Energy eciency data by vehicle types have been obtained from Bose [6]. Table 3 presents the
emission factors by vehicle type and technology used for the analysis. The gradual reductions in
emission factors over time reect the emission norms that have been specied at dierent points of
time. With the introduction of low lead petrol from 1994 and unleaded petrol from 1995, the
emission factors for lead came down drastically. Further, the emission factors include the impacts
of implementation of EURO I in 1999 and EURO II in 2000 [7]. Further improvement in emission
standards has been considered for the period 20002005. Because of the paucity of further
information, it has been assumed that the same emission standards will continue beyond 2005.
2.4.2. Alternate scenarios
Alternate scenarios have been constructed based on dierent GDP growth rates. While the
HGS assumes a 25% higher annual rate of growth of GDP than the BAU scenario, the LGS
assumes a GDP growth rate 25% lower than the BAU scenario (Table 4). Other assumptions in all
the alternate scenarios remain the same as those of the BAU scenario.

Table 2
Reduction in number of two wheelers, cars and buses caused by MRTS
MRTS

Two wheeler

Car

Bus

Phase I
Phase II

194 098
499 218

54 318
139 706

3427
8814

2610

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

Table 3
Emission factors by vehicle type (gm/km)
Type of vehicle Year

CO

HC

NOx

SO2

Particulates

Pb

Cars and Jeeps Up to 1991

Gasoline
19911994
19941995
19951999
19992000
20002005

25
19.8
19.8
6.45
3.16
2.2

5.00
2.73
2.73
1.14
0.56
0.25

2.00
2.00
2.00
1.14
0.56
0.25

0.053
0.053
0.053
0.053
0.053
0.053

0.030
0.030
0.008
0.003
0.003
0.003

8.30
6.49
6.49
5.00
2.4

5.18
4.5
4.5
4.32
2.4

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

0.023
0.023
0.023
0.023
0.023

0.008
0.008
0.002
0.002
0.0002

0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26
0.26

0.029
0.029
0.029
0.029
0.029

0.019
0.019
0.005
0.005
0.0004

Two wheelers
Gasoline

Up to 1991
19911994
19941996
19962000
2000-2005

Three wheelers
Gasoline

Up to 1991
19911994
19941995
19962000
20002005

12.0
12.0
12.0
8.1
4.8

7.0
7.0
7.0
6.48
2.4

Commercial
vehicles

Up to 1991

12.7

2.1

21.0

1.5

19911996
19962000
20002005

12.7
9.96
5.35

2.1
1.44
0.66

21.0
16.8
9.34

1.5
0.75
0.37

3
2.4
2.4

Source: Indian Institute of Petroleum (IIP), Automotive Research Association of India (ARAI) used in UNEP, 1999
[7].

Table 4
GDP growth rates (%) per annum in alternate scenarios
City

BAU scenario

HGS

LGS

Delhi
Mumbai

5.6
6.6

7
8.25

4.2
4.95

3. Results and analysis

The results and analyses have been divided into three components: (1) travel demand, (2) energy demand and (3) emissions from the transport system, and are discussed separately for the
BAU scenario and the alternate scenarios. The discussions follow:
3.1. BAU scenario
3.1.1. Travel demand
Table 5 presents the projected GDP, population and vehicle stocks for the cities of Delhi and
Mumbai during the time horizon of the analysis in the BAU scenario. It can be observed that

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2611

Table 5
Projected GDP, population and total vehicle stock for Delhi and Mumbai in BAU scenario
Year
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

GDP (Rs. billion)a

Population (million)

Total vehicles

Delhi

Mumbai

Delhi

Mumbai

Delhi

Mumbai

64.3
105.3
138.5
182.1
239.5

90.2
149.9
205.9
282.9
388.7

11.46
16.03
18.02
19.92
22.01

10.8
11.9
12.6
13.4
14.3

2 387 996
3 508 371
4 796 766
6 340 340
8 854 421

476 422
875 772
1 206 312
1 824 725
2 519 447

Source: Estimated by authors.

a
Price of 1980/81.

during 19972020, while the population in Delhi is expected to grow by about 1.9 times, both the
GDP and the vehicle stock would increase by about 3.7 times. It should be noted further that
despite implementation of the MRTS with a carrying capacity of 6.4 million passengers by 2020,
about 8.85 million vehicles are expected to roll on Delhi roads. In the case of Mumbai, during the
same time period, while the GDP and population will increase by about 4.3 and 1.3 times,
respectively, the total vehicle stock is expected to increase, by more than ve times. Therefore,
while the vehicle stockGDP elasticity 1 is about one in the case of Delhi, it is greater than one for
Mumbai.
Tables 6 and 7 present the growth by vehicle types for Delhi and Mumbai respectively. In both
cities, a steep growth in personal vehicles (car and two wheelers) is expected. Despite the
assumption that the MRTS would replace about 0.5 million two wheelers and 0.14 million cars by
2020 (Table 2), in Delhi, the numbers of two wheelers and cars will grow from the present level of
about 1.5 and 0.66 million to 5.78 and 2.4 million, respectively, in 2020. The respective compound
annual growth rates (CAGRs) are estimated as 5.9% and 5.8% during 19972020. The same two
vehicles in Mumbai will grow from 0.23 and 0.15 million in 1997 to 1.5 and 0.6 million,
respectively, in 2020. Although, the car-GDP elasticity in Mumbai is less than one (0.96, Eq. (8)),
the two wheeler-GDP elasticity is about 1.31 (Eq. (7)).
Personal vehicles continue to dominate the total vehicle stock. In Delhi, the share of the personal mode (car and two wheeler) continues to be almost as high as 97%. The share of buses in the
total passenger vehicle stock, on the other hand, will decline from 0.68% to 0.46%. Because of the
Delhi municipalitys policy on phasing out more than 15 year old taxis, the number of taxis in
Delhi declines during 19972005, however, it grows afterwards. For the same reason, the compound annual growth rate of three wheeler stock is only 2.1% during 19972005. However, it
increases at the rates of about 11.8%, 4.5% and 4.8% in the later three periods respectively. In
Mumbai, the share of the personal mode (car and two wheeler) goes up from the present level of
81% to 88%, while the share of buses in the total vehicle population, marginally declines from
1.32% in 1997 to 1.12% in 2020. The similar policy assumed in Delhi to phase out old three
wheelers and taxis, explains the growth patterns of these two vehicles in Mumbai.

Vehicle stockGDP elasticity

Growth rate in vehicle stock in certain period

.
Growth rate in GDP in that period

2612

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

Table 6
Projected vehicles stock in Delhi
Year

Two
wheeler

Three
wheeler

Taxi

Car

Buses

Total

LCV

HCV

Total goods
vehicle

1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

1 530 944
2 148 893
3 130 580
4 170 067
5 782 376

59 831
70 692
123 685
169 799
214 334

12 802
9 313
14 855
17 756
22 413

664 564
1 103 407
1 292 449
1 695 175
2 454 375

15 532
19 455
26 411
27 754
39 275

2 283 673
3 351 765
4 587 980
6 080 550
8 512 774

57 378
95 530
135 711
168 864
222 070

46 945
61 076
73 075
90 927
119 576

104 323
156 606
208 786
259 790
341 646

Table 7
Projected vehicles stock in Mumbai
Year

Car

Two
wheelers

Three
wheeler

Taxis

Buses

Total
passenger
vehicles

LCV

HCV

Total
goods
vehicles

1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

154 865
267 882
342 271
476 778
623 113

233 530
451018
668922
1087895
1534209

54 757
91 610
104 103
148 246
210 407

26 961
25 101
35 582
33 766
44 667

6309
12 745
16 675
19 974
27 269

476 422
848 355
1 167 552
1 766 658
2 439 667

11 037
16 999
24 806
37 163
51 059

7849
10 419
13 953
20 904
28 721

18 886
27 418
38 759
58 066
79 780

Despite the large increase in the number of vehicles, the vehicles per capita are not large. While
per capita income nearly doubles from Rs 5614 to 10 880 during 19972020 in Delhi, the numbers
of cars and two wheelers per 1000 persons increase almost at the same rate, from respective gures
of 58 and 133 today to 111 and 263 in 2020 (Table 8). The number of buses per 1000 persons is
expected to increase from 1.4 to 1.8. In Mumbai, while per capita income triples during 1997
2020, the cars and two wheelers per 1000 persons go up from 14 and 22 to 44 and 107, respectively. The gure for buses increases from 0.6 in 1997 to 1.9 in 2020.
The total in-city passenger travel demand in Delhi increases from 73 billion passenger kilometer
(pkms) in 1997 to 253 billion pkms in 2020, registering a CAGR of 5.3% (Table 9). However,
during 2005 and 2010, passenger travel demand of 11.48 billion pkms will be met by the MRTS,
based on the assumption of completion of Phase 1 of the MRTS with a carrying capacity of 3.2
million passengers by 2005. This gure will increase further to 29.52 billion pkms in 2015 and 2020

Table 8
Vehicles per 1000 persons in Delhi and Mumbai
Year
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

Car

Two wheeler

Three wheeler

Taxi

Delhi

Mumbai

Delhi

Mumbai

Delhi

Mumbai

Delhi

Mumbai

Delhi

Mumbai

58
69
72
85
111

14
22
27
35
44

133
134
174
209
263

22
38
53
81
107

5
4
7
8
9

5
8
8
11
15

1
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.0

2
2
3
3
3

1.4
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.8

0.6
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.9

Source: Estimated by the authors.

Bus

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2613

Table 9
Projection of passenger and freight demand met by dierent modes in Delhi in BAU scenario
Year

Passenger kilometer demand in billion passenger km

By motorized transport

1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

MRTS

Car

Two
wheeler

Three
wheeler

Taxi

Buses

Total

17.55
29.14
34.14
44.77
64.82

11.32
15.88
23.14
30.82
42.74

4.61
5.45
9.53
13.09
16.52

0.62
0.45
0.72
0.86
1.09

39.02
48.87
66.34
69.72
98.66

73.12
99.80
133.88
159.26
223.83

11.48
11.48
29.52
29.52

Per capita
travel demand (km)
per day within city limits

17.48
19.02
22.09
25.97
31.53

Freight movement demand in billion tonne

kilometer
LCV

HCV

Total

0.37
0.61
0.87
1.08
1.42

2.26
2.94
3.52
4.38
5.76

2.63
3.55
4.39
5.46
7.18

Table 10
Distribution of travel demand in dierent mode (%)
Year
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

Passenger demand

Freight demand

Car

Two wheeler

Three wheeler

Taxi

Buses

LCV

HCV

24.00
29.20
25.50
28.10
28.90

15.48
15.92
17.28
19.35
19.09

6.31
5.46
7.12
8.22
7.38

0.85
0.45
0.54
0.54
0.49

53.36
48.97
49.56
43.77
44.08

13.9
17.2
19.7
19.8
19.7

86.1
82.8
80.3
80.2
80.3

Source: Estimated by the authors.

due to enhancement of the MRTS carrying capacity to 6.4 million passengers by 2015. The MRTS
will, respectively, meet 10.3%, 7.9%, 15.6% and 11.7% of the total passenger travel demand in
2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. In these respective years, passenger travel demand of 99.8, 133.88,
159.26, 223.83 billion pkms will be met by motorized transport. Freight travel demand is expected
to increase from 2.63 billion tonne kilometer (tkms) to 7.18 billion tkms in 2020. The CAGR of
freight travel demand during 19972020 is estimated as 4.5%, as against the assumed GDP CAGR
of 5.6% (Table 4) during the same period for Delhi.
The total passenger travel demand for Mumbai has been estimated as 32, 61, 79, 100 and 137
billion pkms, respectively, for the years 1997, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 (Table 11). The respective
gures for freight travel demand are 0.36, 0.49, 0.66, 1.00 and 1.37 billion tkms. The CAGR for
passenger travel demand is 6.5%, which is higher than for Delhi, perhaps because of the
assumption of higher GDP growth rate for Mumbai. The freight travel demand is expected to
grow at a slightly lower CAGR of 6.0% during 19972020, as against the compound annual GDP
growth rate of 6.6% (Table 4) during the same period.
The per capita passenger travel demand in Delhi has been estimated as 19, 22, 26 and 32 km,
respectively, in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020, as against the estimated 17 km in 1997 (Table 9). The
TERI estimates of per capita passenger travel demand for Delhi are 23 and 27 km, respectively,
for the years 2005 and 2010 [4]. The per capita travel demand in Mumbai is lower as compared to

2614

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

Delhi. The respective gures are 8.2, 14.0, 17.2, 20.4 and 26.2 km for the years 1997, 2005, 2010,
2015 and 2020 (Table 11). The TERI estimates on per capita travel demand in Mumbai are 11.8
and 13.2 km for 2005 and 2010 [4].
The share of motorized travel demand met by the personal mode of transport is expected to
increase in Delhi from about 40% (car24.0%, two wheeler15.5%) in 1997 to 48% (car 28.9%,
two wheeler19.1%) in 2020 (Table 10). The share of buses in the total travel demand, on the
other hand, will decline from 53.4% to 44.1%, while the share of three wheelers will increase
slightly from 6.3% to 7.4% (the increase is not continuous) and the share of travel demand met by
taxi will decline marginally from 0.85% to 0.49% (also not continuous).
In Mumbai, buses continue to be the dominant mode of passenger transport (Table 12). The
share of travel demand met by buses increases to 71.5% in 2010 and then declines to 67.9% from
2015 onwards. The share of two wheelers will increase from 5.4% to 8.3%, while the share of cars
continues to be about 12% during 19972020. The share of taxis will decline from 4.2% to 1.6%.
3.1.2. Energy demand
Tables 13 and 14 present the estimated total energy demand, energy demand by passenger and
freight transport and their energy intensities in Delhi and Mumbai, respectively. The transport
energy demand (motorized) in Delhi has grown by 2.7 times during 19972020, from 50.6 to 137
million GJ. In Mumbai, during the same period, it has grown by threefold from 20 to 60 million
Table 11
Projection of passenger and freight demand met by dierent modes in Mumbai
Year

1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

In city passenger kilometer demand in billion kilometers

Cars

Two
wheeler

Three
wheeler

Taxis

Buses

Total

4.1
7.1
9.0
12.6
16.5

1.7
3.3
4.9
8.0
11.3

3.6
6.0
6.8
9.7
13.8

1.3
1.2
1.8
1.7
2.2

21.4
43.3
56.7
67.9
92.7

32
61
79
100
137

Per capital/
day travel demand in km

8.16
14.02
17.16
20.37
26.21

Freight movement demand in billion tonne

kilometers
LCV

HCV

Total

0.056
0.087
0.127
0.190
0.261

0.303
0.402
0.538
0.806
1.107

0.359
0.488
0.665
0.996
1.368

Table 12
Distribution of travel demand in dierent mode (%)
Year
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

Passenger demand

Freight demand

Cars

Two wheeler

Three wheeler

Taxis

Buses + suburban LCV

HCV

12.71
12.04
11.60
12.60
12.10

5.36
5.47
6.24
8.05
8.31

11.18
9.87
8.63
9.75
10.13

4.16
2.04
2.23
1.68
1.62

66.60
71.0
71.5
67.9
67.9

84.29
82.22
80.93
80.93
80.93

Source: Estimated by the authors.

15.71
17.78
19.07
19.07
19.07

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2615

Table 13
Energy demand and energy intensity by mode (Delhi)
Year

1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

Energy demand (million GJ)

Transportation demand

Energy intensity

Total

Passenger

Freight

Passenger
(billion pkms)

Freight (billion tkms)

Passenger (GJ/
1000 pkms)

Freight (GJ/
1000 tkms)

50.6
68.9
85.5
102.0
137.0

42.5
57.0
70.0
82.7
111.4

8.1
11.9
15.5
19.4
25.5

73.1
99.8
133.9
159.3
223.8

2.63
3.55
4.39
5.46
7.18

0.581
0.571
0.522
0.519
0.500

3.087
3.346
3.531
3.544
3.545

(84)
(83)
(82)
(81)
(81)

(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)
(19)

Source: Estimated by the authors, gures in parentheses are the share (%) in total.
Table 14
Energy demand and energy intensity by mode (Mumbai)
Year

1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

Energy demand (million GJ)

Transportation demand

Energy intensity

Total

Passenger

Freight

Passenger
(billion pkms)

Freight
(billion tkms)

Passenger
(GJ/1000 pkms)

Freight
(GJ/1000 tkms)

20
30
36
45
60

19.1
28.3
33.8
41.5
55.5

1.2
1.7
2.3
3.5
4.8

32
61
79
100
137

0.36
0.49
0.66
0.996
1.37

0.597
0.462
0.428
0.415
0.405

3.22
3.39
3.48
3.51
3.50

(95)
(94)
(94)
(92)
(92)

(5)
(6)
(6)
(8)
(8)

Source: Estimated by the authors, gures in parentheses are the share (%) in total.

GJ. The CAGRs are 4.4% and 4.9%, respectively, for Delhi and Mumbai, as against the assumed
economic growth rates (Table 4) of 5.6% and 6.6%, respectively. The lower growth in energy
demand for motorized transport in Delhi can be attributed to the introduction of the MRTS. In
both cities, the transport energyGDP elasticity remains lower than one. Other than the MRTS in
Delhi, the introduction of CNG and electricity driven vehicles in both cities, which are more
energy ecient, would contribute to low energy-GDP elasticity.
Passenger transport dominates the energy consumption for both the cities (Tables 13 and 14).
However, the share in Delhi falls from 84% in 1997 to 81% in 2020. Consequently, the share of
freight transport, increases from 16% to 19% during the same period. In 1997, 95% of the total
transport energy in Mumbai was used for passenger transport, while the remaining 5% was for
freight movement. However, the share of energy demand for passengers is expected to decline
marginally over the years, from 95% to 92% in 2020.
In Delhi, the energy intensity for passenger transport is expected to fall gradually from 0.58 GJ/
1000 pkms in 1997 to 0.5 GJ/1000 pkms in 2020, altogether about a 14% decrease (Table 13). This
decline can be attributed to penetration of the more energy ecient CNG and battery operated
vehicles. For freight transport, the energy intensity, on the other hand, increases from 3.09 GJ/
1000 tkms to 3.55 GJ/1000 tkms during the same period due to the increase in the share of LCV
(Table 10) in total freight transport, which is relatively energy inecient. For Mumbai, the energy
intensity for passenger transport falls signicantly from 0.6 GJ/1000 pkms in 1997 to 0.4 GJ/1000
pkms in 2020 (Table 14). This is due to the marginal increase in the share of buses to meet

2616

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

passenger travel demand and the introduction of more energy ecient CNG and battery operated
vehicles. The lower share of private transport explains the low energy intensity for passenger
transport in Mumbai as compared to Delhi. For freight transport, the energy intensity increases
from 3.22 GJ/1000 tkms to 3.50 GJ/1000 tkms during the same period due to the increase in the
share of LCV (Table 12) in total freight transport.
Tables 15 and 16 present the fuel-wise energy demand for the two cities. The penetration of
natural gas and electricity reects the policy of introduction of clean fuels for the city transport
system. The natural gas demand of about 1 billion m3 in both cities in 2020 suggests the need for
an elaborate gas supply network. Replacement of diesel driven passenger vehicles, like buses,
taxis, etc., by CNG driven vehicles leads to a fall in demand for diesel. In the later periods, only
freight vehicles may demand diesel. Because of the higher share of the personal mode of transport,
the growth in gasoline demand is 2.36 times the present consumption gure in Delhi.
As far as dierent passenger travel modes are concerned, cars in Delhi account for the highest
share in total energy consumption, about 43% in 1997 (Fig. 2). This share is expected to further
increase to about 50% in 2020. Buses are the second largest consumer and continue to remain so
till 2020. The share of two wheelers in the total passenger related energy consumption remains the
same at about 15% throughout the entire time period of 19972020. In Mumbai, buses are the
largest consumer of energy, accounting for 33.5% in 1997 (Fig. 3). There is a sharp increase in its
share to 45% in 2005. After that, its share remains at about 48% till 2020. Cars are the second
largest consumer of energy with a share ranging from 24% to 27% throughout the time horizon of
the analysis. Three wheelers are the third largest consumer, however, its share falls from 19% in
1997 to 11% in 2020.
3.1.3. Emissions
Implementation of strict emission norms, introduction of clean fuels and the MRTS would help
Delhi to reduce the pollution load (local) from 412,000 thousand tonnes to 242,000 tonnes in
Table 15
Projected energy demand for transport sector in Delhi (106 )
Fuel

Unit

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

Electricity
Natural gas
Gasoline
Diesel

kW h
1000 m3
tonne
tonne

0
0
0.61
0.48

41.67
0.43
0.81
0.33

155.56
0.64
0.92
0.40

319
0.77
1.10
0.46

458
1.16
1.44
0.57

Source: Estimated by the authors.

Table 16
Projected energy demand for transport sector in Mumbai (106 )
Fuel

Unit

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

Electricity
Natural gas
Gasoline
Diesel

kW h
1000 m3
tonne
tonne

0
0.02
0.20
0.22

61.11
0.25
0.24
0.2

144.44
0.55
0.24
0.09

261
0.72
0.29
0.9

383
1.0
0.36
0.11

Source: Estimated by the authors.

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2617

Fig. 2. Share (%) of dierent passenger travel mode in total energy consumption (Delhi).

Fig. 3. Share (%) of dierent passenger travel mode in total energy demand (Mumbai).

2015, however, it would increase to 328,000 tonnes in 2020 due to demand growth (Table 17). The
use of low lead gasoline reduces the lead emissions drastically. Similarly, the use of low sulfur
diesel, stricter emission norms and reduction in diesel use reduce the sulfur emissions from 4600 to
2700 tonnes in 2015, however, it increases marginally in 2020 due to the growth in freight travel
demand. Stricter emission norms and introduction of CNG driven buses, reduce NOx emissions as
well. Cars and two wheelers together contribute about 80% of the HC emissions in Delhi. Two
wheelers alone contribute about 70% of the total CO emissions. Cars and two wheelers together
contribute about 83% of CO emissions in 2005, however, it declines to 70% in the latter years.
Phasing out the diesel driven bus system would limit the growth in particulate emissions. Because
of the assumptions on introduction of the MRTS and declining emission factors over the years,
our estimations on pollutants are lower than the TERI estimates (gures within the parentheses)
[4].

2618

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

Table 17
BAU projected emissions (000 tonne) from the transport sector in Delhi/Mumbai
Pollutant

Delhi

Mumbai

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

CO2
CO

3646
263

9364
182

1461
83

81

29

16

22

Lead

0.26

0.05

0.07

0.08

0.014

0.017

NOx

49

40

52

18.5

9.9

13.2

SOx

4.6

2.7

3.2

1.9

0.64

0.7

Particulates

7.2

7.9

10.2

2.6

1.4

1.9

242

328

135

2310
32
(80)
17
(34)
0.015
(0.03)
10.1
(35)
0.7
(5.7)
1.3
(6.3)
61

3950
46

63

2010
55
(71)
26
(30)
0.03
(0.03)
16
(30)
1.2
(4.7)
2.2
(5.2)
101

2950
33

88

5796
127
(206)
66
(82)
0.05
(0.098)
40
(74)
2.8
(11)
6.6
(14)
242

7011
129

HC

4665
203
(198)
76
(81)
0.16
(0.1)
39
(61)
3.5
(8.9)
5.4
(12)
327

61

84

Total local pollutants 412

(non-CO2 )

Estimated by the authors.

Compared with TERI estimatesgures in the parentheses.

The situation in Mumbai would be better as compared to Delhi (Table 17). Implementation of
strict emission norms and introduction of clean fuel, along with heavy dependence on public
transport, would help Mumbai to remain relatively clean. The pollution load declines by about
50%, from 135,000 tonnes in 1997 to 61,000 tonnes in 2015, however, after that, it increases to
84,000 tonnes along with the increase in travel demand. CO and HC continue to be the main
pollutants, emitted by mainly the gasoline driven vehicles. The particulates, SOx and NOx
emissions go down considerably during 19972020 because of lesser use of diesel driven vehicles,
low sulfur diesel and stricter emission norms.
Table 18 presents the shares of passenger transport in the total pollution. In both the cities, the
bulk of the emissions comes from passenger transport. However, its share declines over time.
Table 18
Share (%) of passenger transport in total pollution (Delhi and Mumbai)
Pollutant
CO2
CO
HC
Lead
NOx
SOx
Particulate
Total local pollutants

Delhi

Mumbai

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

84.3
94.3
97.7
100.0
76.7
67.4
48.2
91.8

81.3
92.1
97.4
100.0
42.8
61.4
8.3
85.8

80.3
87.2
96.6
100.0
27.3
58.9
5.5
77.3

79.7
87.7
97.0
100.0
23.9
60.7
2.3
76.5

80.1
87.9
97.2
100.0
23.8
57.2
0.0
77.0

97.14
97.24
99.66
100.00
91.35
84.21
76.92
96.38

94.28
96.36
98.85
100.00
79.88
83.33
68.18
93.55

92.68
93.75
98.27
100.00
56.86
71.43
23.08
87.16

90.03
90.91
100.63
100.00
44.44
70.31
4.29
83.71

89.75
90.65
96.82
100.00
43.18
67.14
0.00
82.55

Source: Estimated by the authors.

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2619

Presently, passenger transport is responsible for, respectively, 84% and 97% of the CO2 emissions
in Delhi and Mumbai. The shares fall to, respectively, 80% and 90% in 2020. It remains
responsible for 100% of the lead emissions throughout the time horizon. Similarly, it emits about
91% and 97% of the CO and HC in Mumbai in 2020. However, its shares in the NOx , SOx and
particulate emissions fall drastically over the time horizon. On the whole, the share of passenger
transport in the total pollution load (non-CO2 ) declines from 92% to 77% in Delhi during 1997
2020. In the case of Mumbai, it falls from 96% to 82%.
3.2. Alternate scenarios
3.2.1. Rise in income and travel demand
The estimated per capita annual income for Delhi and Mumbai is shown in Table 19. The per
capita annual income in Delhi is estimated as Rs. 14 824 in 2020 in the HGS as against Rs. 10 883
in the BAU scenario. In Mumbai, the per capita income in the HGS is Rs. 39 109 in 2020 as
against Rs. 27 234 in the BAU scenario. In the LGS, while in Delhi, the per capita income grows
1.4 times during 19972020, it more than doubles in Mumbai.
Table 20 presents the projected vehicle stock in Delhi and Mumbai, respectively, in the dierent
scenarios. In the HGS, there is expected to be an explosion in vehicle stock in both cities. While in
Delhi, there is about a sixfold increase in vehicle stocks during 19972020, in Mumbai, it goes up
by nine times from the present level. In Delhi, while the CAGR of vehicle stock was 5.9% in the

Table 19
Projected income per capita per annum (Rs. at 1980/1981 prices) in Delhi and Mumbai
Year
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

Delhi

Mumbai

BAU scenario

HGS

LGS

BAU scenario

HGS

LGS

5613
6570
7686
9144
10 883

5613
7377
9204
11 678
14 824

5613
5811
6350
7056
7845

8346
12 576
16 271
21 050
27 234

8346
14 263
19 964
27 942
39 109

8346
11 134
13 349
16 004
19 188

Source: Estimated by the authors.

Table 20
Projected vehicle stocks in dierent scenarios in Delhi and Mumbai
Year
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

Delhi

Mumbai

BAU scenario

HGS

LGS

BAU scenario

HGS

LGS

2 387 996
3 508 371
4 796 766
6 340 340
8 854 421

2 387 996
4 539 674
6 975 828
9 841 780
14 728 956

2 387 996
2 538 995
2 879 936
3 055 453
4 501 461

476 422
875 772
1 206 312
1 824 725
2 519 447

476 422
1 071 445
1 686 834
2 845 357
4 325 743

476 422
712 075
839 468
1 123 267
1 413 586

Source: Estimated by the authors.

2620

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

BAU scenario, in this scenario, it would be about 8.2%. The annual vehicle growth (compound)
rate in HGS is even higher in Mumbai at 10%, as against 7.5% in the BAU scenario.
In the LGS, the vehicle stocks in Delhi grow gradually from 2.39 million in 1997 to 4.5 million
in 2020. The CAGR rate is only about 2.8% as against 5.9% in the BAU scenario. The vehicle
stocks during 19972020 in Mumbai grow annually almost at the same rate as the GDP. In both
cities, a similar vehicular mix as in the BAU scenario is observed in all the alternate scenarios.
As expected, higher economic growth in the HGS will lead to a many fold increase in ownership
of vehicles in both cities (Table 21). In this scenario, cars and two wheelers per 1000 persons in
Delhi in 2020 are expected to be, respectively, 186 and 439 as against 111 and 263 in the BAU
scenario, as shown in Table 8 earlier. The number of personal vehicles are less in the LGS. The
number of cars and two wheelers per 1000 persons in 2020 are estimated as 56 and 132, which are
even lower than the present level, but as the population would be higher, the number of vehicles
would be more than at present. In both scenarios, Mumbai shows a similar trend as in Delhi.
Table 22 presents the projected passenger and freight travel demand in all the scenarios in both
cities. The higher economic growth rate in the HGS leads to about a ve time increase in passenger travel demand between 1997 and 2020 in Delhi. In the same scenario, about a sevenfold
increase in passenger travel demand is expected in Mumbai. The demand for freight also shows
similar growth. In the LGS, the overall demand in Delhi increases from 73 billion pkms in 1997 to
112 billion pkms in 2020. However, the motorized passenger travel demand in 2005 and 2015 falls
due to the assumption of completion of Phases I and II of the MRTS. Travel demand of both
types becomes more than double in Mumbai during 19972020 in the LGS. In the alternative
scenarios, the vehicular mix in travel demand is similar to the BAU scenario in both cities.
3.2.2. Energy and emissions
Table 23 compares the projected energy demand in the BAU scenario, HGS and LGS for both
cities. In both cities, the energy demand for passenger travel in the HGS is about 1.7 times higher
Table 21
Personal vehicles per 1000 persons in Delhi and Mumbai in dierent scenarios
Year

Delhi

Mumbai

Car

Two wheeler

Car

Two wheeler

HGS
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

58
87
106
134
186

134
177
254
325
439

14
27
37
52
70

22
47
76
130
192

LGS
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

58
52
42
41
56

134
94
103
98
132

14
19
19
23
26

22
30
36
48
58

Source: Estimated by the authors.

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2621

Table 22
Projected motorized passenger (billion pkms) and freight transport demand (billion tkms) in Delhi and Mumbai
Year

Passenger

Freight

BAU scenario

HGS

LGS

BAU scenario

HGS

LGS

Delhi
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

73.1
99.8
133.9
159.3
223.8

73.1
129.6
193.4
253.2
376.7

73.1
71.8
82.0
79.2
112.0

2.6
3.6
4.4
5.5
7.2

2.6
4.3
5.9
7.9
11.1

2.6
2.9
3.1
3.5
4.3

Mumbai
1997
2005
2010
2015
2020

32.2
61.0
79.3
99.9
136.5

32.2
75.0
110.6
153.0
226.7

32.2
49.0
54.6
62.5
79.0

0.36
0.49
0.66
1.00
1.37

0.36
0.61
0.93
1.50
2.22

0.36
0.39
0.45
0.64
0.81

Table 23
Energy demand by travel mode and its share (%)
Scenario

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

1997

2005

2010

2015

2020

Delhi
Passenger travel energy demand (million GJ)

BAU scenario 42.5

HGS
42.5
LGS
42.5

57.0
73.3
41.7

70.0
101.4
42.6

82.7
130.5
41.2

111.9
187.3
56.5

Freight energy demand (million GJ)

BAU scenario
HGS
LGS

8.1
8.1
8.1

11.9
14.4
9.5

15.5
20.7
11.0

19.4
28.1
12.3

Share (%) of passenger travel energy demand

in total
84.5
84.5
84.5

82.8
83.6
81.4

81.8
83.0
79.5

81.0
82.3
77.1

81.5
82.5
78.9

Share (%) of freight energy demand in total

25.5
39.5
15.1

16.2
16.2
16.2

17.2
16.4
18.6

18.1
16.9
20.5

19.0
17.7
23.0

18.5
17.4
21.1

Mumbai
Passenger travel energy demand (million GJ)

BAU scenario 19.1

HGS
19.1
LGS
19.1

28.2
34.8
23.6

33.8
46.9
24.1

41.5
63.1
26.0

55.5
91.3
32.2

Freight energy demand (million GJ)

BAU scenario
HGS
LGS

1.2
1.2
1.2

1.7
2.1
1.3

Source: Estimated by the authors.

2.3
3.2
1.6

3.5
5.2
2.2

Share (%) of passenger travel energy demand

in total
94.3
94.3
94.3

94.3
94.3
94.6

93.5
93.5
94.0

92.2
92.4
92.1

92.0
92.2
91.9

Share (%) of freight energy demand in total

4.8
7.7
2.8

5.7
5.7
5.7

5.6
5.7
5.3

6.4
6.4
6.1

7.8
7.6
7.9

8.0
7.8
8.0

2622

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

than for the BAU scenario in 2020, while in the LGS, it is about half. The shares of passenger and
freight trac are similar to those in the BAU scenario.
Table 24 presents the projected emissions by pollutant types (local as well as global) in the
dierent scenarios in Delhi and Mumbai. In the HGS, the initial local pollution load (non-CO2 )
declines to 345,000 tonnes in 2010 and then increases again to 542,000 tonnes in 2020. This
suggests that the higher economic growth scenario needs to be accompanied by some even stricter
abatement rules. The pollution load in the LGS declines to 153,000 tonnes in 2010 from 412,000
tonnes in 1997 and then increases to 167,000 tonnes in 2020. In Mumbai, the local pollution load
in the HGS declines initially and reaches 86,000 tonnes in 2010, however, it increases after that
and reaches about the existing level again in 2020 due to the higher transport activities. In the
LGS, the pollution load declines drastically over the time horizon of the analysis because of the
low transportation activities.
In the HGS, the CO2 emissions in Delhi increase signicantly from 3620 thousand tonnes in
1997 to 15,400 thousand tonnes in 2020. In Mumbai, during the same period, it increases from
1500 thousand tonnes to 6500 thousand tonnes. The CO2 emissions in 2020 will increase by about
35% and 53%, respectively, from the existing levels in Delhi and Mumbai in the LGS, however,
the emissions of all other pollutants fall signicantly. Similar to the BAU scenario, passenger
transport is responsible for the bulk of the CO2 , CO, HC and lead emissions.

Table 24
Annual emissions (000 tonnes) of dierent pollutants in all scenarios in Delhi and Mumbai
Pollutant

1997

2005

2010

2020

BAU
HGS
scenario

LGS

BAU
HGS
scenario

LGS

BAU
scenario

HGS

LGS

BAU
HGS
scenario

LGS

Delhi
CO2
CO
HC
Lead
Nox
Sox
Particulates
Total local
pollutants

3620
263
88
0.265
49
4.6
7.2
412

3620
263
88
0.265
49
4.6
7.2
412

3620
263
88
0.265
49
4.6
7.2
412

4665
203
76
0.16
39
3.5
5.4
327

5900
259
99
0.2
48
4.3
6.5
417

3500
151
55
0.12
30
2.7
4.3
243

5796
127
65.5
0.05
40
2.8
6.6
242

8300
183
94.6
0.08
54
4.0
8.9
345

3600
79
40
0.03
27
1.8
4.6
153

9364
182
81
0.07
52
3.2
10.2
329

15400
302
136
0.12
83
5.2
15.8
542

4900
93
41
0.03
30
1.75
1.6
167

Mumbai
CO2
CO
HC
Lead
Nox
Sox
Particulates
Total local
pollutants

1500
83.3
29
0.08
18.5
1.9
2.6
135

1500
83.5
29
0.08
18.9
1.9
2.65
135

1500
83.5
29
0.08
18.9
1.9
2.6
135

2010
55
26
0.03
16.4
1.2
2.2
101

2500
66
31
0.04
20
1.6
2.86
121

1710
46
21.7
0.02
13
1.1
1.86
84

2310
32
17.3
0.02
10.2
0.7
1.3
62

3200
45
24
0.02
14
0.9
1.77
86

1660
23
12
0.01
7
0.5
0.86
43

3950
46
22
0.02
13.2
0.7
1.9
84

6500
76
38
0.03
21
1.2
3.0
139

2300
26
11.9
0.01
7.8
0.4
1.12
47

Source: Estimated by authors.

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2623

4. Conclusions
The present study analyses the urban transportation system and its energyenvironment
implications for two mega cities of India, viz. Delhi and Mumbai. It examines the implications of
a range of economic growth scenarios on travel demand, energy demand and emissions. Major
ndings are discussed in the following sections. The study assumes continuation of the current
paradigm that relies on expansion of travel, vehicles and energy consumption with somewhat
more ecient and less polluting vehicles in the future.
4.1. Travel demand
Population growth and growing economic activities contribute to a many fold increase in travel
demand in both cities and, consequently, growth of vehicles stock. Despite implementation of the
MRTS, about 8.85 million vehicles are expected to roll on Delhi roads in 2020. The gure is 2.5
million for Mumbai, which is about ve times higher than the existing gure. Because of the
growing income, signicant growth in personal transport, viz. cars and two wheelers is expected.
Ownership of these two types of vehicles increases 3.75 times in Delhi and 5.55 times in Mumbai
(Tables 6 and 7) by 2020. The share of motorized travel demand met by the personal mode of
transport is expected to increase in Delhi from about 40% in 1997 to 48% in 2020. In Mumbai,
however, buses continue to be the dominant mode of passenger transport.
Because of the strong correlation between economic activities and transportation needs, in the
HGS, which assumes higher economic growth, a further increase in vehicle stock is expected in
both cities. Naturally, this would require expansion of the cities and more yovers, additional
lanes, etc. Low economic growth that is 25% lower than the BAU scenario, on the other hand,
arrests the growth in transportation needs to some extent. Vehicle stocks grow gradually from
2.38 million in 1997 to 4.5 million in 2020 in Delhi. About a threefold increase in vehicle stock is
expected in Mumbai during the same period.
4.2. Energy demand
There would be a signicant growth in transport energy demand. However, in Delhi, implementation of the MRTS would curb the energy demand for motorized transport to some extent. It
grows by 2.7 times during 19972020, from 50.6 to 137 million GJ. In Mumbai, during the same
period, a threefold increase is expected. However, the transport energy demandGDP elasticity
during this period remains less than one (in the range of 0.740.79) for both cities. Passenger
transport dominates the energy demand. However, its share falls marginally in both cities.
In both cities, the energy intensity for passenger transport falls over the years due to the
penetration of more energy ecient CNG and battery operated vehicles. However, the energy
intensity for freight transport increases due to the increase in share of the relatively energy
inecient LCV in total freight transport. There are scopes for further improvement in
energy intensity for both passenger as well as freight transport systems. For example, in Delhi,
while cars contribute only 29% in meeting the passenger travel demand in 2020, it requires about
50% of the total energy demand. Serious policy interventions in the form of enhancing the

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A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

occupancy of cars or shifting passenger travel mode from cars to some other energy ecient mode
will further improve the energy intensity.
Assumption of the present Government policy on replacement of diesel driven passenger
vehicles, like buses, taxis, etc., by CNG driven vehicles to curb the particulates emissions in the
city leads to a fall in diesel demand. In the later periods, only goods delivery vehicles demand it.
Because of the higher share of the personal mode of transport, the growth in gasoline demand
is 2.36 times the present consumption gure in Delhi. The natural gas demand of about 1
billion m3 in both cities in 2020 suggests the need for an elaborate and reliable CNG supply
network.
Strong correlation is observed between economic growth and transport energy demand. In
Delhi, in the HGS, during 19972020, the transport system demands about 1.7 times more energy
in 2020 than in the BAU scenario. In the LGS, the model estimates the energy demand for 2020 as
about 72 million GJ as against 137 million GJ in the BAU scenario. In Mumbai, in the HGS, the
annual GDP growth rate of 8.25% during 19972020 will lead to a 7.1% CAGR in energy demand, while in the LGS, the energy demand shows a CAGR of 2.4% as against the assumed GDP
growth rate of 4.95%. Similar to the BAU scenario, passenger travel dominates the total energy
need in both Delhi and Mumbai. Also, the demand pattern by vehicle mode is the same as in the
BAU scenario.
4.3. Emissions
Despite a moderate economic and population growth, the ongoing policies on fuel substitution,
supply of clean fuel, implementation of strict emission norms and the MRTS would help Delhi to
reduce the pollution load (local) by about 20%, from 412,000 thousand tonnes in 1997 to 329,000
tonnes in 2020. Passenger transport is responsible for the bulk of the CO2 , CO, HC and lead
emissions. In fact, it is the source for the entire transport related lead emissions. However, due to
the stricter vehicular emission norms, use of better quality fuel and substitution of clean fuel, its
contribution of NOx , SOx and particulate decreases over the years. The use of low lead gasoline
reduces the lead emissions drastically. Similarly, the use of low sulfur diesel, stricter emission
norms and substitution of diesel in passenger transport reduces the sulfur emissions. Stricter
emission norms and introduction of CNG driven buses reduce NOx emissions as well. Cars and
two wheelers together contribute about 80% of the HC emissions in Delhi. Two wheelers alone
contribute about 70% of the total CO emissions. Therefore, in Delhi, there is further scope for
reduction in CO and HC by reducing the use of personal transport. Phasing out the diesel driven
bus system would limit the growth in particulate emissions.
Continuing reliance on public transport makes the situation relatively better in Mumbai.
Implementation of strict emission norms and introduction of clean fuel and fuel substitution
along with heavy dependence on public transport, would help Mumbai to remain relatively clean.
Moreover, the sea acts as a sink for pollutants. The pollution load declines by almost 40%, from
135,000 tonnes in 1997 to 84,000 tonnes in 2020. CO and HC continue to be the main pollutants,
emitted by mainly the gasoline driven vehicles. Particulates, SOx and NOx emissions go down
considerably during 19972020 because of less use of diesel driven vehicles, low sulfur diesel and
stricter emission norms.

A. Das, J. Parikh / Energy Conversion and Management 45 (2004) 26032625

2625

Similar to energy demand, a strong relationship is observed between economic growth and
pollution from the transport system. Higher economic activities would lead to higher pollutions
from the transport system.
The present study concludes that under the current paradigm, with the ongoing economic
growth and population pressure in these two cities, continuous and aggressive eorts are required
for controlling air quality. The measures are

Implementation of strict emission norms,

supply of better quality fuel (low lead gasoline, low sulfur diesel),
implementation of the MRTS in Delhi and strengthening it in Mumbai,
supply of CNG,
setting up large scale CNG driven and battery operated vehicle manufacturing capacity.

A higher number of vehicles would obviously require more yovers, roads, additional land and
so on. However, some other options, such as shifts in the paradigm or restricting city expansion,
etc., were not considered here.

Acknowledgements
This paper is a part of the project funded by the Swedish International Development Agency
(SIDA) and coordinated by the Asian Institute of Technology. We are grateful to Prof. Ram
Shreshtha and Dr. Robin Shreshtha for their valuable support for this work and Dr. Satsangi and
R. Ramanathan for reviewing the manuscripts. Mahesh Mohan helped in arranging the nal
manuscript.

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