HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

25 October, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY

VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close
66.890
98.554
1.0897
1.2241
103.97
66.8494

Close
USDINR
DXY INDX
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
DG USDINR

66.853
98.769
1.088
1.222
104.440
66.903

Chg.

% Chg.

-0.037
0.215
-0.002
-0.002
0.470
0.054

-0.06%
0.22%
-0.17%
-0.16%
0.45%
0.08%

GLOBAL INDICES
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SGX NIFTY
NIFTY
SENSEX
HANG-SENG
NIKKEI
SHANGHAI
S&P INDEX
DOW JONES
NASDAQ
FTSE
CAC
DAX

8720.0
8709.0
28179.1
23560.5
17341.2
3125.8
2151.3
18223.0
5309.8
6986.4
4552.6
10761.2

8722.0
8693.1
28077.2
23604.1
17234.4
3128.2
2141.2
18145.7
5257.4
7020.5
4536.1
10710.7

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY

Chg.

% Chg.

-2
16
102
-44
107
-2
10
77
52
-34
17
50

-0.02%
0.18%
0.36%
-0.18%
0.62%
-0.08%
0.47%
0.43%
1.00%
-0.49%
0.36%
0.47%

(Provisional Rs. In Cr)

Segment

24-Oct-16

21-Oct-16

Equity

-221.94

341.17

Debt

212.51

965.46

RUPEE RECOUPLES DOLLAR GAIN

The rupee recouples dollar gain yesterday amid expectation of
strong foreign fund flows on stronger domestic equity market. Also,
gains in the Asian currencies markets also helped the rupee.
The benchmark 10-year government bond yield closed at 6.76%
compared with Friday's close of 6.761%.
The rupee closed at 66.85 against the US dollar, up 0.06% from its
previous close of 66.89. The home currency opened at 66.92. So far
this year, it has fallen 1.1%.
Spot USDINR is having resistance around 67.07 while 66.50 acts as
support in near term. The overall bias for the pair remains bearish
until it manages to cross 67.27.

Dollar Jumps to Nine Month High on Strong Mfg. Activity

The dollar's index hit its highest level since early February, climbing
to a high of 98.846, having risen 3.6% so far this month. The dollar
held near nine-month highs against a basket of major currencies on
Tuesday as solid U.S. manufacturing activity and comments from a
Federal Reserve official cemented expectations of a U.S. rate hike
by year-end.
The Composite Output Index, which combines manufacturing and
services, rose to 53.7 from 52.6 in September, preliminary results of
the purchasing managers' survey by IHS Markit showed Monday.
While there are potentially market-moving events next week such as
policy meeting by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, many
investors are also looking closely to the U.S. presidential election on
Nov. 8. The fed's interest rise probability inched up to 71% from
previous 68%.Also, recent polling that shows Hilary Clinton leading
Donald Trump prompted market players to price out the chance of a
victory by Trump, whose stance on protectionist trade measures has
been seen as a risk to the world's economy.
The near term outlook for dollar index would be bullish with
psychological resistance at 100 and support 97.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR OCT. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

The USDINR Oct. Future is hovering around 20 SDMA.

MACD has been placed near zero line with MACD moving above MACD average suggesting near term upward swing.

The pair is having resistance around 67.08, the falling trend line adjoining high 68.255 and low of 67.6975, and 67.22, the 200
SDMA.

The pair could witness short covering amid rebound in momentum oscillators. However, the outlook remains bearish till pair sustain
above 67.27 on closing basis.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS
Near Month Fut.

Last

Pivot

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

66.86

66.87

66.70

66.76

66.81

66.92

66.98

67.03

EURINR

72.90

72.85

72.57

72.64

72.77

72.97

73.05

73.18

GBPINR

81.93

81.84

81.46

81.56

81.74

82.03

82.12

82.31

JPYINR

64.33

64.36

64.05

64.16

64.25

64.44

64.55

64.64

Spot

Wkly
High

Wkly
Low

1-Mth.
High

1-Mth.
Low

52 Wk
High

52 Wk
Low

5 DMA

20 DMA

50 DMA

100 DMA

200 DMA

USDINR

66.94

66.66

67.14

66.40

68.79

64.91

66.79

66.68

66.81

67.00

67.08

EURINR

73.64

72.76

75.44

72.66

77.49

70.24

73.14

74.09

74.66

74.81

74.77

GBPINR

82.22

81.18

89.27

81.18

101.87

81.18

81.88

83.39

86.17

88.45

92.41

JPYINR

64.57

63.92

66.78

63.92

68.11

53.32

64.38

64.76

65.40

65.07

62.55

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Open

High

Low

Close

Chg.

Open
Interest

Chg. in OI

Volume

Chg. In
Volume

SPOT USDINR

66.92

66.92

66.82

66.85

-0.04

--

--

--

--

USDINR OCT. FUT.

66.91

66.93

66.83

66.86

-0.04

1132868

-81744

663586

-156120

SPOT EURINR

72.69

72.87

72.66

72.86

-0.01

--

--

--

--

EURINR OCT. FUT.

72.77

72.92

72.72

72.90

0.00

25044

-2227

30100

-11970

SPOT GBPINR

81.59

81.87

81.59

81.86

0.15

--

--

--

--

GBPINR OCT. FUT.

81.66

81.94

81.66

81.93

0.17

75403

-5855

44953

-12526

SPOT JPYINR

64.35

64.46

64.29

64.33

-0.10

--

--

--

--

JPYINR OCT. FUT.

64.40

64.47

64.27

64.33

-0.16

19578

-966

20841

-17337

Currency

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time

Country

Event

Period

Survey

Actual

Prior

10/24/2016 13:30

EC

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Oct P

52.7

53.3

52.6

10/24/2016 13:30

EC

Markit Eurozone Services PMI

Oct P

52.4

53.5

52.2

10/24/2016 18:00

US

Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index

Sep

-0.13

-0.14

-0.72

10/24/2016 19:15

US

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

Oct P

51.5

53.2

51.5

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time

Country

Event

Period

Survey

Prior

10/25/2016 18:30

US

FHFA House Price Index MoM

Aug

0.40%

0.50%

10/25/2016 19:30

US

Consumer Confidence Index

Oct

101.5

104.1

10/25/2016 19:30

US

Richmond Fed Manufact. Index

Oct

-4

-8

10/25/2016 19:30

US

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

Oct

47.5

46.7

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)

Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
Disclosure:
I/We, Dilip Parmar and Vinay Rajani, MBA, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my views about the subject issuer (s) or securities. I also certify that no part of our
compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in his report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject instrument at the end of
the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report.
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Any position in Instruments NO
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]