Morethan400millionpeoplelivealongtheGangesRiver.

Anestimated2,000,000
personsrituallybathedailyintheriver,whichisconsideredholybyHindus.[11]Ganges
riverpollutionfromsewageandsemicrematedremainsisthusamajorhealthrisk.
NRGBAwasestablishedbytheCentralGovernmentofIndia,on20February2009under
Section3(3)oftheEnvironmentProtectionAct,1986.ItalsodeclaredGangesasthe
"NationalRiver"ofIndia.[12]ThechairincludesthePrimeMinisterofIndiaandChief
ministersofstatesthroughwhichtheGangesflows.[13]
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_pollution_in_India
Photosource:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/22/Ganges_river_at_Varanasi_2008
.jpeg

ThefrequencyandseverityoffloodinginSoutheastAsiahasincreasedoverthepast
severaldecades.Floodingisaprominentissuethatiscurrentlyaffectingmanyregionsin
SoutheastAsia,inparticularCambodia,Thailand,Vietnam,Laos,thePhilippines,and
areassurroundingtheMekongRiver.AccordingtotheUnitedNationsOfficeforthe
CoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs[5]itisestimatedthat9.6millionpeopleare
currentlyaffectedbythefloodinginSoutheastAsia,with5.3millioninThailandalone.
AccordingtotheNationalCommitteeforDisasterManagementandtheDepartmentof
Hydrology,thefloodsinThailandaresoseverethattheyhavebeenlabeledtheworst
floodsinover60years[5].FloodinginSoutheastAsiaraisesmanyconcernsforthe
healthandwellbeingofthoseaffected.
Source:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3529313/

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/manila080812/m01_RTR35SNF.jpg

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/manila080812/m01_RTR35SNF.jpg

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/infocus/manila080812/m01_RTR35SNF.jpg

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/oped/thehumanfaceofpakistansdeadly
flood/article617725.ece

http://nimg.sulekha.com/others/original700/brazilflooddeaths2011115162011.jpg

10

Source(top):http://drogevoeten.files.wordpress.com/2011/01/regionalflood
vulnerability1.jpg
Source(bottom):http://www.ipccwg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/SREXAll_FINAL.pdf

11

12

http://www.pdc.org/

13

14

15

Bangladeshisoneoftheworldmostdenselypopulatedcountryandoneofthemost
susceptiblecountriestoflooddisasters.Italsothreepowerfulriverspassingthoughit:
Ganges,MeghnaandBrahmaputra.AboutonehalfofthelandareainBangladeshisat
anelevationoflessthan8metersabovesealevel. Upto30%ofthecountryhasbeen
coveredwithfloodwaters. In1991more200,000deathsresultedfromfloodingand
associatedtropicalcyclones.
Source:http://freshclick.wordpress.com/2009/03/27/causesofthefloodingin
bangladesh/

16

17

18

InJune2013,amultidaycloudburstcenteredontheNorthIndianstateofUttarakhand
causeddevastatingfloodsandlandslidesinthecountry'sworstnaturaldisastersincethe
2004tsunami.ThoughsomepartsofHimachalPradesh,Haryana,DelhiandUttar
PradeshinIndiaexperiencedtheflood,someregionsofWesternNepal,andsomeparts
ofWesternTibetalsoexperiencedheavyrainfall,over95%ofthecasualtiesoccurredin
Uttarakhand.Asof16July2013,accordingtofiguresprovidedbytheUttarakhand
government,morethan5,700peoplewere"presumeddead."Thistotalincluded934
localresidents.
Destructionofbridgesandroadsleftabout100,000pilgrimsandtouriststrappedinthe
valleysleadingtothreeofthefourHinduChotaCharDhampilgrimagesites.TheIndian
AirForce,theIndianArmy,andparamilitarytroopsevacuatedmorethan110,000people
fromthefloodravagedarea.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_India_floods

19

20

21

22

Severefloodingoccurredduringthe2011monsoonseasoninThailand.BeginningattheendofJuly
triggeredbythelandfallofTropicalStormNockten,floodingsoonspreadthroughtheprovincesof
Northern,NortheasternandCentralThailandalongtheMekongandChaoPhrayariverbasins.InOctober
floodwatersreachedthemouthoftheChaoPhrayaandinundatedpartsofthecapitalcityofBangkok.
FloodingpersistedinsomeareasuntilmidJanuary2012,andresultedinatotalof815deaths(with3
missing)and13.6millionpeopleaffected.SixtyfiveofThailand's77provincesweredeclaredflood
disasterzones,andover20,000squarekilometres(7,700sqmi)offarmlandwasdamaged.Thedisaster
hasbeendescribedas"theworstfloodingyetintermsoftheamountofwaterandpeopleaffected."
TheWorldBankhasestimated1,425billionbaht(US$45.7Bn)ineconomicdamagesandlossesdueto
flooding,asof1December2011.[2][3]Mostofthiswastothemanufacturingindustry,assevenmajor
industrialestateswereinundatedbyasmuch3meters(10feet)duringthefloods.Disruptionsto
manufacturingsupplychainsaffectedregionalautomobileproductionandcausedaglobalshortageof
harddiskdriveswhichlastedthroughout2012.
TheWorldBank'sestimateforthisdisastermeansitranksastheworld'sfourthcostliestdisasterasof
2011surpassedonlybythe2011earthquakeandtsunamiinJapan,1995Kobeearthquake,andHurricane
Katrinain2005.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Thailand_floods

23

Source:http://www.earthzine.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/12/fig1.jpg

24

Intheaftermathofahazard,includingfloods,manyagencies gonvernments,
environmentalists,generalpopulation,initiallylooktoblamesomeoneorsomething.In
parttheyarelookingforsomethingtofix.Theyarealllookingtothefuturebecause(a)
theywanttoensurethistypeofdisasterdoesnotoccuragain;or(b)theywantto
minimizethedamage.

25

Itiscommonlybelievedbymany(includinggovernments,thegeneralpopulation,some
scientists)thatdeforestationcausesfloods.Thisisacontentiousissue.Most
hydrologistsunderstandthattreeremovalcontributestoflooding,butitisrarelythe
singularcause,especiallyforlargecatchments.Heavyrainonwetsoilsusuallycauses
flooding.Todatetherearenotstudiesthatshowdeforestationcausesfloodinginvery
largecatchments onlysmallexperimentalcatchmentswherealargepercentageofthe
treeshavebeenremoved.
However,ifthetopsoilisdamaged/degraded,therebyreducinginfiltration,thereisa
greaterchanceforoverlandflowtobegenerated,potentiallyfacilitatingflood
generation.

26

This figure shows the changes in water flow pathways related to disturbance. In forests, the
dominant flow pathway of rainwater flowing on the surface is downward. On disturbed lands,
more water can be directed laterally because the infiltrability of the soil is reduced.
Abstract(frompapercitedabove).
MeasurementsofsaturatedhydraulicconductivityKsandindicesofHortonoverlandflow(HOF)
generationareusedtoassesstheinfluenceoflandscapefragmentationonnearsurfacehydrologic
responseintwouplandwatershedsinnorthernVietnam.Thefragmentedlandscape,whichresultsfrom
timberextractionandswiddenagriculture,isamosaicofsurfaceshavingdistinctinfiltration
characteristics.Ingeneral,humanactivityhasreducedinfiltrationandalterednearsurfaceflowpathson
alldisturbedlandcovers.Compactedroads,paths,anddwellingsites,forexample,havethepropensityto
generateHOFforsmallrainfalldepths.Althoughthesesurfacesoccupyasmallfractionofabasinland
area(estimatedat,1%),theycontributedisproportionatelytooverlandflowresponseduringtypical
rainfallevents.RecentlyabandonedfieldshavethelowestKsofallnonconsolidated,postcultivation
surfacestested.Beginning12yearsfollowingabandonment,diminishedKsrecoversovertimewiththe
successiontomoreadvancedtypesofsecondaryregrowth.Ifagrasslandemergesontheabandonedsite,
ratherthanabamboodominatedcover,Ksrecoversmorerapidly.ThedecreaseinKswithdepthbelow
disturbedsurfacesismoreacutethanthatfoundatundisturbedsites.Thisenhancedanisotropyinnear
surfaceKsincreasesthelikelihoodofthedevelopmentofalateralsubsurfaceflowcomponentduring
largestormsofthemonsoonrainseason.Subsequently,thelikelihoodofreturnflowgenerationis
increased.BecausetherecoverytimeofsubsurfaceKsisgreaterthanthatforthesurfaceKs;theimpact
humanactivityhasonhydrologicresponseinthefragmentedbasinmaylingerlongafterthesurface
vegetationhasevolvedtoamatureforestedassociation.

27

Oneplausibleconsequenceofglobalwarmingisaccelerationofthehydrologicalcycle,
whichissimplythebalanceamongglobalevapotranspiration,rainfall,surfacerunoff,
andstorage(Ziegleretal.,2003).Accelerationmayincreasethefrequencyand/or
intensityofextremeevents,whichoccurannuallythroughoutmonsoonAsia.However,
mostcredibleadvocatesofclimatechangearecarefulnottodrawdirectlinksbetween
contemporaryextremeeventsandclimatechange(Huntington,2010).Atspatialscales
relevanttocatastrophicflooding,suchasthatwitnessedin2011,accelerationin
hydrologicalcyclecomponentscannotyetbeverifiedwithcertainty(Ziegleretal.,2003,
2005).Withrespecttoextremeevents,themostsophisticatedpredictionmodelscan
onlyprovideapproximationsofwhatmightoccurinthefuture(KarlandTrenberth,
2003).
Source:Ziegler,AD,HSLim,CTantasarin,NJachowski*,RJWasson.2012.Floods,False
Hope,andtheFuture.2012.HydrologicalProcesses 26:17481750.

28

Tropicalmonsoonareasareaparadoxinthatannualexcessesofstreamflowoftenare
accompaniedbydrybreaksinrainfallextending24months.Twocompetinggoals
thereforecomplicatewatermanagement:(i)maximizingwateravailabilityinthedry
season;and(ii)minimizingfloodinginthewetseason particularlylateintheyearin
SoutheastAsiawhentropicalstormsfromtheSouthChinaSeaaremostfrequent(Lebel
etal.,2011).Maintainingsufficient[empty]storagecapacityindualpurposereservoirs
asasafeguardagainstunpredictablelateseasonstormsequatestoasignificant
reductionofwateravailablefordryseasonirrigationandcommercialuse.Inthecaseof
theBhumipolandSirikitdams,eachlocatedonmajortributariesoftheChaoPhraya
River(Figure1d),thevolumeofwaterneededtoreducefloodriskisnearly7billionm3
(RID,2011).
Source:Ziegler,AD,HSLim,CTantasarin,NJachowski*,RJWasson.2012.Floods,False
Hope,andtheFuture.2012.HydrologicalProcesses 26:17481750.

29

30

31

AbstractWeanalysean89yearstreamflowrecord(19212009)fromtheUpperPingRiverinnorthern
Thailandtodetermineifanomalousflowshaveincreasedovertime(Trenberth,ClimRes47:123138,
1999;Trenberth,ClimChang42:327339,2011).Wealsorelatethetemporalbehaviorofhighandlow
flowstoclimaticphenomenaandanthropogenicactivities.Peakflowshavenotincreasedsignificantly
since1921.However,minimumflowsshowedaverysignificantdownwardtrendoverthestudyperiod
(00.01).Annualandwetseasondischargeshowsignificantdownwardtrends(00.05).Allflowvariables
appeartobemorevariablenowthan90yearsagoespeciallyannualpeakflows.Bothannualpeakand
minimumflowsarecorrelatedwithannualandwetseasonrainfalltotals.Minimumflowisalsosensitive
tothelengthofthemonsoonseasonandnumberofrainydaysinthepreviousmonsoonseason.Peak
flowactivityisdrivenpredominantlybyclimatephenomena,suchastropicalstormactivityandmonsoon
anomalies,buttherelationshipbetweenpeakflowsandENSOphenomenaisunclear.Ingeneral,annual
dischargevariablesdidnotcorrespondunequivocallywithElNinorLaNinevents.Minimumflowsshow
amajordeclinefromthemid1950sinlinewithmajoranthropogenicchangesinthecatchment.The
plausibleintensificationofthehydrologicalcyclethatmayaccompanyglobalwarmingisofconcern
becauseofthepotentialtoaffecttropicalstormactivityandmonsoonanomalies,phenomenathatare
linkedwithveryhighflowsinthisriversystem.Theobviouseffectofhumanactivitiessuchasreservoir
managementonlowflowscallsforcarefulmanagementtopreventdroughtsinthefuture.
AbstractfromLimHS,KBoochaphun,Ziegler,AD.2012.ModifiersandAmplifiersofHighandlowFlowson
thePingRiverinNorthernThailand(19212009):TheRolesofClimaticEventsandAnthropogenicActivity.
WaterResourcesManagement 26(14):42034224

32

33

Figure1.(A)MapofThailandshowingtheChaoPhrayaRiversubcatchmentsthat
contributedtothelargescalefloodinginlate2011.ThebluelinesrepresenttheChao
PhrayaRiverandfourmainuplandtributaries.Thebrownandgreenareascorrespondto
theupperandlowersubbasinconsideredinthisrainfallanalysis.(B)JanuaryOctober
(yearly)rainfallfortheentireChaoPhrayacatchment(bluebars).Annualrainfall
anomalies(representedasstandarddeviationsfromthemeanrainfall),determinedfrom
the14yearTRMMsatellitearchive(NASA,2012)fortheupper(brownline)andlower
(greenline)subcatchments.Rainfallin2011was10%higherthanthesecondhighest
yearonrecord.(C)2011monthlyrainfallfortheentirecatchment(bars);andupper
basinandlowerbasinmonthlyrainfallanomalies.Thehighestrainfallanomalies
occurredinMaywhenthetotaldepth
comprised24%oftheJanuaryOctobertotal.(D)Mapofthe2011JanuaryOctober
rainfallanomalyinThailand.Theaggregatedanomalyinthenorthernregionupstreamof
theBhumipolandSirikitdams(circles)was1.6standarddeviationsabovethemean

34

AndrewWalkerwroteinthenewMandalaaboutthecauseofflooding:Therehasbeena
lotofdiscussionaboutthecausesofThailandsfloods:environmentaldegradation;
forestclearing;filledinwaterways;theinauspiciousnessofafemalePrimeMinister;a
hydrologicalplottodestabiliseYingluck;dammanagement;therevengeofMother
Naturefortheexcessesofmodernity;etc.etc.
Someofthesedeservefurtherdiscussion,inparticularthevexedissueofmanaging
waterreleasesfromdams(aparticularlycomplexissuegiventhatdamsservemultiple
purposes)butwedontwanttolosesightofthefactthattheprimarycauseofflooding
isveryhighrainfall.Thefollowinggraphs,whichcomparethe2011monthlytotals
(JanuarytoSeptember)withthe30yearaveragesforthosemonthsarerevealing.In
ChiangMaitheninemonthtotalwas140percentoftheaverage;inLamphun196%;in
Lampang177%;inUttaradit153%andinPhitsanulok146%.Theseareonlyafew
locations(andallofthemfromlowlandsites rainfallisheavierathigherelevations)but
theygiveaclearindicationthat2011hasbeenanexceptionallywetyearandthatthis
hasbeenwidelyspreadacrosstheChaoPhayacatchment.
http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2011/10/19/thaifloodcauserevealedrain/

35

36

37

38

39

40

UpdateonThailandfloodfromNovember2011:Damageanddisruptiontothemanufacturingsectorhasbeenmassiveafter
defensesprotectingseveralindustrialestateswerebreached.TheLabourMinistrysaidthatmorethan14,000businesses
nationwidehavehadtoclosebecauseofthefloods.FactoriesintheprovincesofAyutthayaandPathumThaniwereparticularly
badlyhit(seemapbelow).Reportssaidaround1,300factoriesacrosscentralThailandhavebeenaffectedbythefloods,disrupting
manufacturingsupplychainsinsideandoutsideofThailand.Manyoftheseindustrialestateshousebothlocalandinternational
factoriesandbusinesses,withlargenumbersmakingelectroniccomponentsandcarparts.
Theproductionofcars,electronicsandothergoodshasbeensuspendedashundredsoffactoriesareunder
water.Disruptiontosupplychainshasalsohaltedoperations,raisingfearsthatthefloodingmayhaveaknockonaffectonglobal
manufacturing.Indeed,officialsexpectdisruptiontooperationstolastseveralmonthsandarewarningthefloodscouldhave a
similarimpactonproductionastheTohokuearthquakeinMarch.Thailandplaysacriticalroleintheglobalsupplychainand
companiesarethereforeseekingalternativeproductionfacilitiesorsupplyroutesforparts.
Fiveindustrialestates(BangPain,HiTech,FactoryLand,RojanaandSahaRattanaNakorn)inthebadly
affectedprovinceofAyutthayahavebeenflooded.AtHiTech,reportssaidall130factorieshavebeeninundatedbyfloodwatersof
upto3.4metersdeep.TheNavaNakornindustrialestateinPathumThaniProvince,oneofThailandsoldestandlargestindustrial
estateswithahighconcentrationofJapanesemanufacturers,hasalsobeenevacuatedafterfloodwaterssubmergedseveral
factories.AseventhbigindustrialestatewasoverwhelmedonOctober20whenflooddefenseswerebreachedattheBangKadi
estateinPathumThaniProvince.ReportssaidtheindustrialestatesofLatKrabang,BangChan,BangPhliandBangPooremain at
theriskofbeingflooded.Around1,000factorieshavereportedlybeenforcedtocloseintotal,promptingtheFTItowarnthatthe
damagetotheindustrialsectorcouldbebetweenTHB300billionandTHB400billion(USD9.8billionandUSD13.1billion).
OfficialsattheHiTechIndustrialEstatesaidtheywereaimingtoresumeoperationsbymidDecemberifthe
floodwatersrecedeinearlyNovember.Theyaddedthatitwilltakeupto10weekstodrainaway12millioncubicmetersofwater in
theirfacility.OfficialsatNavaNakornplant,meanwhile,saiditwilltake90daystocleanupafterthewaterhasrecededand about
oneyeartofullyrebuilditsinfrastructure.
Source:http://www.gccapitalideas.com/2011/11/03/floodsinthailand2/

41

42

http://floodlist.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/11/lakeringletflood3.jpg
InOctober2013,flashfloodinginthecatchmentoftheRingletreservoircoupledwith
existingsiltationresultedinarapidriseinthewaterlevel,necessitatingsuchastep.
Unfortunately,eventhecontrolledreleaseofwaterresultedinthefloodingof100
housesinthevillageKgBertamValleyontheSundaiBertambelowthedam,andledto
thedeathoffourpeople.

43

44

45

TheseverityofrecentfloodinginThailandandtheprobabilityoffuturefloodinghave
triggeredareassessmentofcopingmechanismsemployedbyboththeThaipopulation
andthegovernment.
FloodinghasnotalwaysbeenacauseforhumandisplacementinThailand.Thai
vernaculararchitecture,cultureandlifestyleswereadaptedtoallowthoselivingon
fertilelowlandstocontinuewiththeirdailylivesduringannualfloods.However,thishas
changedwithalargerpopulation,thegrowthofurbancentresandtheextensionof
increasinglysophisticatedwatermanagementsystems.
Seemoreat:
http://www.fmreview.org/preventing/sophonpanich#sthash.NIYb1Fpu.dpuf

46

http://us.123rf.com/450wm/photonewman/photonewman1111/photonewman111100
215/11286788bangkokthailandnovember16thehousethatwasfloodedduringthe
constructionof16november2011.jpg

47

48

Wemightnotbeabletomovecities,butwecouldredesignthemtomakespacefor
watersothatthenaturalprocessesoffloodingoccurwithminimizeddamage.Thiscould
bedonethroughgreenengineeringsolutionsandmoreholisticcatchmentwide
floodmanagement,whichincludessupportivepolicies,aregulatoryframework,
incentivesystems,andpublicparticipation(DEFRA,2004;FAO,2005;Lebeletal.,2011;
Ziegleretal.,2012).Italsowouldrequireavoidinguncontrolleddevelopmentwithinat
riskareasandrelocatingthoselivinginhighriskareas.Metropolitanareaslocatedon
highergroundscouldthenbelinkedviaappropriatetransportationsystemsengineered
throughpotentialinundationzones.Thisapproachismorerealisticinthelongrunthan
NoahsArktypesolutionssuchasexpandingcontinentalscalefloodwaterdrainage
systems,buildingcascadesofdualpurposedams,orconstructinghigherdikes.Such
shorttermengineeringsolutionsarepotentiallydangerousbecauseaspeoplegrow
complacentwhensmalldisastersareavoided,theybecomemorevulnerableto
catastrophicevents(NewellandWasson,2002).Thisdevelopmentapproachalsowould
serveadualpurposeofhelpingcoastalcitiescombatsealevelrise,anothermajor
environmentalproblemfacingmanypopulatedareasworldwide.
Source:Ziegler,AD,HSLim,CTantasarin,NJachowski*,RJWasson.2012.Floods,False
Hope,andtheFuture.2012.HydrologicalProcesses 26:17481750.

49

Aonehundredyearfloodisafloodeventthathasa1%probabilityofoccurringinany
givenyear.The100yearfloodisalsoreferredtoasthe1%flood,sinceitsannual
exceedanceprobabilityis1%,[1]orashavingareturnperiodof100years.The100year
floodisgenerallyexpressedasaflowrate.Basedontheexpected100yearfloodflow
rateinagivencreek,riverorsurfacewatersystem,thefloodwaterlevelcanbemapped
asanareaofinundation.Theresultingfloodplainmapisreferredtoasthe100year
floodplain,whichmayfigureveryimportantlyinbuildingpermits,environmental
regulations,andfloodinsurance.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100year_flood

50

Scott:So,oneofthethingsthatIknowyou'vebeengettingalotforquestionsaboutandoneofthethings
thatsomeofthepublicmightbeinterestedinknowingaboutis:asfarasfloodinggoes,youknowwehear
thisphrase"500yearflood."Andsupposedlythisisthe2nd 500yearfloodwithinfifteenyears.Isthat
correct?
Bob:That'sright,Imean,someofournumbersareshowingthatthis,leastonourfrequencyprobability
curvesisaboutthesecond500yearfloodwe'vehadin15years.
Scott:Whatexactlydoesthatmean?Howcanyouhavetwo500yearfloodsin15years?
Bob:Essentially,Ithinkashydrologists,we'vedoneourselvesadisservicebycallingitthat.Essentiallyit's
aprobabilisticmeasure.Alotofpeoplethink"OK,ifI'vehada500yearfloodnow,thisyear,we'vegot
499years.Wedon'thavetoworryaboutitagain."Andthat'ssimplynotthecase.Essentially,a500year
floodisjustthatquantityofwaterthathasthe1in500chanceinhappeninginanyoneyear.Anotherway
tosayitwouldbe,there'sa .2%chanceofafloodofthismagnitudeoccurringinanyoneyear. So,it's
essentiallyaprobabilisticmeasure.WetakeourannualpeakflowvaluesfromtheUSGSgagesandwefita
probabilitymodeltothoseandcomeupwithanumberfora100year,a500yeara25yearwhatever.You
knowthe100yearfloodforexamplewouldbeachanceofonein100ofoccurringinanyoneyear.
Source:http://gallery.usgs.gov/audios/50#.Uzi1U_mSyjs

51

Source:http://strangify.com/strangetrueurbanlegends/

52

53

MadefromdatahostedattheFloodobservatory:
http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/index.html

54

Gotothemap:http://www.wri.org/resources/maps/aqueductglobalfloodanalyzer

55

Scientistsareincreasinglylinkingchangesinextremephenomenatoclimatechange

56

Abstractfromtheabovepaper
Awarmerclimatewouldincreasetheriskoffloods1.Sofar,onlyafewstudies2,3have
projectedchangesinfloodsonaglobalscale.Noneofthesestudiesreliedonmultiple
climatemodels.Afewglobalstudies4,5havestartedtoestimatetheexposureto
flooding(populationinpotentialinundationareas)asaproxyofrisk,butnoneof
themhasestimateditinawarmerfutureclimate.Herewepresentglobalfloodrisk
fortheendofthiscenturybasedontheoutputsof11climatemodels.Astateofthe
artglobalriverroutingmodelwithaninundationscheme6wasemployedtocompute
riverdischargeandinundationarea.Anensembleofprojectionsunderanewhigh
concentrationscenario7demonstratesalargeincreaseinfloodfrequencyinSoutheast
Asia,PeninsularIndia,easternAfricaandthenorthernhalfoftheAndes,withsmall
uncertaintyinthedirectionofchange.Incertainareasoftheworld,however,flood
frequencyisprojectedtodecrease.Anotherlargerensembleofprojectionsunderfour
newconcentrationscenarios7revealsthattheglobalexposuretofloodswould
increasedependingonthedegreeofwarming,butinterannualvariabilityofthe
exposuremayimplythenecessityofadaptationbeforesignificantwarming.

57

58

AbstractWeusedtheconversionoflanduseanditseffects(CLUEs)modeltosimulate
scenariosoflandcoverchangeinMontanemainlandsoutheastAsia(MMSEA),aregion
inthemidstoftransformationduetorapidintensificationofagricultureandexpansion
ofregionaltrademarkets.Simulatedchangesaffectedapproximately10%ofthe
MMSEAlandscapebetween2001and2025and16%between2001and2050.Roughly
9%ofthecurrentvegetation,whichconsistsofnativespeciesoftrees,shrubs,and
grasses,isprojectedtobereplacedbytreeplantations,tea,andotherevergreenshrubs
duringthe50yearsperiod.Importantly,4%ofthistransitionisexpectedtobedueto
theexpansionofrubber(Heveabrasiliensis),atreeplantationcropthatmayhave
importantimplicationsforlocaltoregionalscalehydrologybecauseofitspotentially
highwaterconsumptioninthedryseason.
Source:Fox,FM,JBVogler,OLSen,TWGiambelluca,ADZiegler.2012.Simulatingland
coverchangeinMontaneMainlandSoutheastAsia.EnvironmentalManagement 49(5):
968979.

59

AbstractRegionalclimatemodelsimulationswithRegCM3wereperformedto
investigatehowfuturelandcover/landuse(LCLU)changeinMontaneMainland
SoutheastAsia(MMSEA)couldaffectregionalclimate.Simulationlandsurface
parameterizationsincludedpresentdayandplausible2050landcovers,aswellastwo
extremedeforestationsimulations.Inthesimulations,theoriginallandcovermapof
RegCM3,basedonAVHRR1992 93observations,wasreplacedwithoneobtainedfrom
MODIS2001observations;andthemodelwassettoworkattwodifferentspatial
resolutionsusingthesubgridfeatureofthelandsurfacemodel:27.79kmforthe
atmosphereand9.26kmforthelandsurface.Duringvalidation,modeledprecipitation
closelymatchedobservedprecipitationoversouthernChina,butunderestimated
precipitationintheIndochinaPeninsula.Theplausible2050LCLUsimulationpredicted
littlechangeinregionalclimate.However,anextremeirrigatedcropparameterization
causedprecipitationtoincreaseslightlyintheIndochinaPeninsula,decrease
substantiallyinsoutheasternChina,andincreasesignificantlyintheSouthChinaSea.
Theextremeshortgrassparameterizationcausedsubstantialprecipitationdecreasesin
MMSEA,butfewchangeselsewhere.Thesesimulationsindicateinorderforsignificant
climatologicalchangestooccur,substantiallymoreLCLUconversionisrequiredthanthe
16%changeweincorporatedintotheplausible2050landcoverscenario.
Source:Sen,OL,Bozkurt,D.,JBVogler,JMFox,TWGiambelluca,ADZiegler2013.Hydro
climaticeffectsoffuturelandcover/landusechangeinmontanemainlandsoutheast
Asia.ClimaticChange 118: 213226.

60

FromanoriginindiversestudiesoffloodgeomorphologyandQuaternarygeology,paleofloodhydrology
emergedasageophysicalandanappliedhydrologicalscienceduringthe1970sand1980s.Sinceacquiring
itsformalnamein1982,themostproductiveapproachinpaleofloodhydrologyhasbecomeenergybased
inversehydraulicmodelingofdiscretepaleofloodevents,recordedinappropriatesettingsasslackwater
depositsandotherpaleostageindicators(SWDPSI),orasvariousthresholdindicatorsofnonexceedence.
Technologicaladvances,particularlyinhydraulicmodelingandgeochronology,wereinstrumentalin
movingthedisciplinetoitspresentstatus.Themostrecentadvancesinclude(1)newtechniquesforthe
accurategeochronologyoffloodsediments,notablyTAMSradiocarbonanalysesandOSLdating,and(2)
thephenomenalincreaseincomputerpowerthatallowscomplexhydrauliccalculationstobecome
feasibleforroutinestudies.FromitsinitialdemonstrationinthesouthwesternUnitedStates,SWDPSI
paleofloodhydrologyproveditswidespreadapplicabilitytovariouslandscapeenvironments.Particularly
importantstudieshavebeenaccomplishedinAustralia,China,India,Israel,SouthAfrica,Spain,and
Thailand.Paleofloodhydrologyhasalsogenerateditsshareofcontroversy,inpartbecauseofthediffering
viewpointsandattitudesofthetwoscientifictraditionsfromwhichitemerged:Quaternary
geology/geomorphologyversusappliedhydrologic/hydraulicengineering.Nevertheless,thefuturegrowth
ofthedisciplineisassured,giventherapidpaceofdiscoveriesthatitengenders.Indeed,somany
internationalstudiesexistthatitisappropriatetopursueglobalsynthesestoaddressinterestingand
timelyquestionsofextremefloodphenomenainrelationtoglobalclimaticchange.
Source:Baker,VR.2008.Paleofloodhydrology:Origin,progress,prospects.Geomorphology101:113.

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WiangKumKamwasdeemedsuitableforsettlementasitwaslocatednexttothePing
River,makingiteasilyaccessiblefortradeandtravel.Thesurroundingfloodplainswere
alsoconduciveforwetricecultivation(Ongsakul,2006).Duringthelate13thcentury,
WiangKumKamservedastheroyalcapitaloftheearlyLannaKingdom.However,
accordingtotheChiangMaiChronicle,afteramerefiveyearsofroyaloccupancyat
WiangKumKam,KingMengraimovedthecapitalofLannatoChiangMaiin1296AD
(Wyatt&Wichienkeeo,1995).Oneofthereasonsforthismigrationwasrecurrent
flooding(VanBeek,1995).Thedualimpactofpondedwaterandsedimentdepositionin
thecitywasalmostcertainlydifficulttomanage.ThisisironicasWiangKumKam,in
northernThaidialect,literallytranslatestoafortifiedtownthatcontrolsthewater(Van
Beek,1995).Basedonthelargenumberoftemples(Wat)inthecity,historiansbelieved
thatWiangKumKamcontinuedtothriveasanimportanttownforcommerceand
religionaftertheestablishmentofChiangMai.However,thecitywaslaterburiedby
floodsediments.Forcenturies,WiangKumKamexistedonlyinlegendsandstoriesuntil
itwasrediscoveredandexcavatedinthelate1980s.
Ng,XQS,SHWood,ADZiegler.RiversandFloodsinNorthernThaiHistoriography.
PaleofloodsandtheLostCityofWiangKumKam(submittedtoNaturalHazards).

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Inphysics,opticallystimulatedluminescence(OSL)isamethodformeasuringdosesfromionizingradiation.Themethodmakes use
ofelectronstrappedbetweenthevalenceandconductionbandsinthecrystallinestructureofcertaintypesofmatter(suchas
quartz,feldspar,andaluminiumoxide).Thetrappingsitesareimperfectionsofthelattice impuritiesordefects.Theionizing
radiationproduceselectronholepairs electronsareintheconductionbandandholesinthevalenceband.Theelectronswhich
havebeenexcitedtotheconductionbandmaybecomeentrappedintheelectronorholetraps.Understimulationoflightthe
electronsmayfreethemselvesfromthetrapandgetintotheconductionband.Fromtheconductionbandtheymayrecombinewith
holestrappedinholetraps.Ifthecentrewiththeholeisaluminescencecentre(radiativerecombinationcentre)emissionoflight
willoccur.Thephotonsaredetectedusingaphotomultipliertube.Thesignalfromthetubeisthenusedtocalculatethedosethat
thematerialhadabsorbed.
TheOSLdosimeterprovidesanewdegreeofsensitivitybygivinganaccuratereadingaslowas1mremforxrayandgammaray
photonswithenergiesrangingfrom5keVtogreaterthan40MeV.TheOSLdosimeter'smaximumequivalentdosemeasurementfor
xrayandgammarayphotonsis1000rem.Forbetaparticleswithenergiesfrom150keVtoinexcessof10MeV,dosemeasurement
rangesfrom10mremto1000rem.Neutronradiationwithenergiesof40keVtogreaterthan35MeVhasadosemeasurement
rangefrom20mremto25rem.IndiagnosticimagingtheincreasedsensitivityoftheOSLdosimetermakesitidealformonitoring
employeesworkinginlowradiationenvironmentsandforpregnantworkers.
OSLisusedinatleasttwodifferentapplications:(a)opticaldatingofancientmaterials:mainlygeologicalsediments,but also
sometimesfiredpottery,bricksetc.,althoughinthelattercasethermoluminescencedatingisusedmoreoften;and(b)radiation
dosimetry,whichisthemeasurementofaccumulatedradiationdoseinthetissuesofhealthcare,nuclear,researchandother
workers,aswellasinbuildingmaterialsinregionsofnucleardisaster.
InordertocarryoutOSLdating,mineralgrainshavetobeextractedfromthesample.Mostcommonlythesearesocalledcoarse
grains 100200m,orfinegrains 411m.Occasionallyothergrainsizesareused.
ThedifferencebetweenradiocarbondatingandOSListhattheformerisusedtodateorganicmaterials,whilethelatterisused to
dateminerals.EventsthatcanbedatedusingOSLare,forexample,themineral'slastexposuretosunlight;MungoMan,Australia's
oldesthumanfind,wasdatedinthismanner.Itisalsousedfordatingthedepositionofgeologicalsedimentsaftertheyhavebeen
transportedbyair(eoliansediments)orrivers(fluvialsediments).Inarchaeology,OSLdatingisappliedtothedatingofceramics:the
datedeventisthetimeoftheirlastheatingtoahightemperature(inexcessof400C).

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Insedimentarygeologyandfluvialgeomorphology,avulsionistherapidabandonment
ofariverchannelandtheformationofanewriverchannel.Avulsionsoccurasaresult
ofchannelslopesthataremuchlowerthantheslopethattherivercouldtravelifittook
anewcourse.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avulsion_(river)

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Source:http://www.adammandelman.net/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/Fiskplate22
1944.jpg

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FromSerenespaper(abstract)thatissubmitted:Thispaperdemonstratesthatthe
importanceofriversinnorthernThailandwasanchoreduponsociety'sdependenceon
themforsustenanceanddefense.Concurrently,riverswerealsoofdeepreligiousand
culturalsignificance.Hence,manynorthernThaisettlementswerelocatednearrivers.
Thisresultedintheirsusceptibilitytofloodhazards.Ourstudyinvestigatesthe
interactionsbetweenthePingRiverandthepopulationofWiangKumKam.WiangKum
KamwasoneoftheformercapitalsoftheLannaKingdom,a13thto16thcenturypolity
innorthernThailand.Describedasthe'Atlantis'oftheLannakingdom,thecitywas
buriedunderfloodsedimentsseveralcenturiesago.Basedonthefloodplainsediments
excavated,wearguethatthecitywasabandonedafteralargeflood.Radiocarbondating
ofcharcoalfoundinthecoarsesandlayerdepositedbythefloodsuggeststhatthe
depositionoccurredsometimeafterca.1477ADto1512AD.Priortothislargeflood,
persistingfloodsinthecitywerenotedintheChiangMaiChronicleandwerealso
recordedinthefloodplainstratigraphy.Weshowthatanelongatedmoundonthe
floodplaininWiangKumKamwasadykeconstructedafterca.1411ADtoalleviatethe
effectsofpersistingfloods.FromthisstoryofpaleofloodsandWiangKumKam,we
concludewithtwolessonsforthemanagementofmodernfloodsinurbanThailand.

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Visiblealongwithseveralfloodcoupletsarethefollowing:
(a)

Buriedlogthatcanbedatedusingcarbonisotopes.
Radiocarbondating(orsimplycarbondating)isaradiometricdatingtechniquethatusesthedecayofcarbon14(14C)to
estimatetheageoforganicmaterials,suchaswoodandleather,uptoabout58,000to62,000yearsBeforePresent(BP,
presentdefinedasCE1950).[1]CarbondatingwaspresentedtotheworldbyWillardLibbyin1949,forwhichhewas
awardedtheNobelPrizeinChemistry.Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dating

(b)Ared(horizontal)flamestructureinthesandlayerthatwaslikelycreatedbyliquefactionduringanearthquake.
Soilliquefactiondescribesaphenomenonwherebyasaturatedorpartiallysaturatedsoilsubstantiallylosesstrengthand
stiffnessinresponsetoanappliedstress,usuallyearthquakeshakingorothersuddenchangeinstresscondition,causing
ittobehavelikealiquid.Thephenomenonismostoftenobservedinsaturated,loose(lowdensityoruncompacted),
sandysoils.Thisisbecausealoosesandhasatendencytocompresswhenaloadisapplied;densesandsbycontrast
tendtoexpandinvolumeor'dilate'.Ifthesoilissaturatedbywater,aconditionthatoftenexistswhenthesoilisbelow
thegroundwatertableorsealevel,thenwaterfillsthegapsbetweensoilgrains('porespaces').Inresponsetothesoil
compressing,thiswaterincreasesinpressureandattemptstoflowoutfromthesoiltozonesoflowpressure(usually
upwardtowardsthegroundsurface).However,iftheloadingisrapidlyappliedandlargeenough,orisrepeatedmany
times(e.g.earthquakeshaking,stormwaveloading)suchthatitdoesnotflowoutintimebeforethenextcycleofloadis
applied,thewaterpressuresmaybuildtoanextentwheretheyexceedthecontactstressesbetweenthegrainsofsoil
thatkeepthemincontactwitheachother.Thesecontactsbetweengrainsarethemeansbywhichtheweightfrom
buildingsandoverlyingsoillayersaretransferredfromthegroundsurfacetolayersofsoilorrockatgreaterdepths.This
lossofsoilstructurecausesittoloseallofitsstrength(theabilitytotransfershearstress)anditmaybeobservedto flow
likealiquid(hence'liquefaction').Source:(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soil_liquefaction).

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KedarnathaftertheJunedisaster

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TheKedarnathvalley,alongwithotherpartsofthestateofUttarakhand,washitwith
unprecedentedflashfloodson16and17June2013.OnJune16,2013,atabout7:30
p.m.alandslideandmudslidesoccurrednearKedarnathTemplewithloudpealsof
thunder.Anenormouslyloudpealwasheardandhugeamountofwatersstarted
gushingfromChorabariTalorGandhiTaldownMandakiniriveratabout8:30p.m.
washingeverythingawayinitspath.Thenextdayonthe17thofJune,2013atabout
6:40a.m.inthemorningwatersagainstartedcascadingatahugespeedfromriver
SwaraswatiandChorabariTalorGandhiTalbringingalongwithitsflowhugeamountof
silt,rocksandboulders.AhugebouldergotstuckbehindBabaKedarnathTempleand
protecteditfromtheravagesoftheflood'sfury.Thefloodwatersgushedonboththe
sidesofthetempledestroyingeverythingintheirpath.Anothertheorythatistoldabout
thestoryofthetemplenotbeingdestroyedisoftheconstructionofthetemple.
Althoughthetemplewithstoodtheseverityofthefloods,thetemplecomplexand
surroundingareaweredestroyed,resultinginthedeathofhundredsofpilgrimsand
locals.ShopsandhotelsinKedarnathweredestroyedandallroadswerebroken.A
numberofpeopletookshelterinsidethetempleforseveralhours,untilIndianarmy
airliftedthemtosaferplaces.TheUttarakhandChiefMinisterannouncedthatthe
Kedarnathshrinewouldremainclosedforayearforclearingthedebrisaroundthe
shrine.
Someeyewitnessobservedthat,onelargerockthatgotcarrieduptothetemplein
floodwaterandsettledattherearsideoftheKedarnathTemple,thuscausing
obstructiontothedebris,divertingtheflowtothesidesofthetempleavoidingpossible
damage.

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PhotosofthecarnageinKedarnathofthefloodsanddebrisflows

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PhotosofthecarnageinKedarnathofthefloodsanddebrisflows.Poorlyconstructed
housesandhotelsalongtheriverbanksweredestroyed.

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PhotosofthecarnageinKedarnathofthefloodsanddebrisflows

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AviewofKedarnathpost2013eventfromthesoutheast.

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ProfWasson,Alok,andSunilattemptingtomeasurestheprincipalaxesofthisgiant
boulder.WewillthenattempttolocatethebouldersonSyntheticapertureradar(SAR)
images,andtracktheirmovementovertime.Wemayalsobeabletodeterminethe
accumulationofsedimentintheriverasaresultoftheflood.ThisispartofAloksPhD
work.

Syntheticapertureradar(SAR)isaformofradarwhosedefiningcharacteristicisitsuse
ofrelativemotion,betweenanantennaanditstargetregion,toprovidedistinctivelong
termcoherentsignalvariations,thatareexploitedtoobtainfinerspatialresolutionthan
ispossiblewithconventionalbeamscanningmeans.Itoriginatedasanadvancedform
ofsidelookingairborneradar(SLAR).
SARisusuallyimplementedbymounting,onamovingplatformsuchasanaircraftor
spacecraft,asinglebeamformingantennafromwhichatargetsceneisrepeatedly
illuminatedwithpulsesofradiowavesatwavelengthsanywherefromameterdownto
millimeters.Themanyechowaveformsreceivedsuccessivelyatthedifferentantenna
positionsarecoherentlydetectedandstoredandthenpostprocessedtogetherto
resolveelementsinanimageofthetargetregion.
Current(2010)airbornesystemsprovideresolutionstoabout10cm,ultrawideband
systemsprovideresolutionsofafewmillimeters,andexperimentalterahertzSARhas

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providedsubmillimeterresolutioninthelaboratory.
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_aperture_radar

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Thissectionofriverwaselevatedseveralmetersbydebrisflowmaterial,beforeanew
channelwascutasthefloodwatersdecreasedandflowstablized.

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Thistownwasbuildonanalluvialterrace,createdwhentheglaciersretreated
thousandsofyearsago.Theunderlietillmaterialissusceptibletoerosionbyhigh
flowingwater.

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HydropowerconstructiononthetributariesofmostIndianriversiscontroversial,asthey
blockthenaturalflowofthewater.Theyarealsoproblematicduringfloodsbecauseif
theyburst,orevacuated(gatesopenedimmediatelytopreventbursting)theycansend
floodwavesdowntheriver.Inadditiontheconstructionofdamscreatesenormous
amountsofloosematerialthatisdepositedintothestream.Amajorchallengeto
hydropowergenerationforriversinIndiaisdamagetotheturbinesbythelargevolumes
ofbedloadmaterialcarriedbytherivers.

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Pilgrimsontheroad/trailsystemtoKedarnath.Somepilgrimstravelmorethan250km,
oftenbyfootoverseveraldays,toworshipLordShivaatthetempleinKedarnath.

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ImpactofClimateChangeonSingapore
Singaporeisnotinsulatedfromtheimpactofclimatechange.Theannualmeansurfacetemperaturehasincreased
about0.8Csince1948.ThemeansealevelintheStraitsofSingaporehasalsoincreasedbyabout3mmperyearover
thepast15years.
Rainfallhasbecomemoreintenseinrecentyears.In2001,thefirstrecordedcycloneneartheequator,Typhoon
Vamei,sweptnorthofSingaporeandcausedmajorfloodingintheregion.Itisuncertainwhethersuchtropical
cyclonesneartheequatorwilloccurmorefrequentlyinthefuture.
HowCanClimateChangeAffectSingapore?
Sealevelrise
Asalowlyingisland,theriseinsealevelposesthemostimmediatethreattoSingapore.Muchofournationliesonly
15mabovethemeansealevel,withabout30%ofourislandbeinglessthan5mabovethemeansealevel.
Waterresources
Anincreaseintheintensityofweathervariabilitycouldpresentsignificantchallengestothemanagementofour
waterresources.PeriodsofdroughtcanaffectthereliabilityofSingapore'swatersupply,whilesuddenepisodesof
intenserainfallcouldoverwhelmourdrainagesystemandleadtoflashfloods.Source:
https://app.nccs.gov.sg/page.aspx?pageid=160&secid=157&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
Photocredits:http://1.bp.blogspot.com/
KyIlsbaA7dg/TfVGqsb3K5I/AAAAAAAAsW8/UQ6aYrdhrmM/s400/ST_IMAGES_P1BLURBS131.jpg
http://img.thesun.co.uk/aidemitlum/archive/01325/floodmain_1325574a.jpg
https://www.reach.gov.sg/Portals/0/Blog/Snapshot/Content/flashflood.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/
HuAeKFKWbQU/UJI7eRZA47I/AAAAAAAAQEk/cnWaL2m2L8Y/s1600/NTU+Car+Caught+in+Storm+on+31+Oct+2012.jp
g

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