Senkaku war is likely and draws in the US prefer

predictive evidence
Langerman 13 [Aaron, Foucault connoisseur, AN ESCALATING CRISIS:
WHY CHINA AND JAPAN MIGHT GO TO WAR, 2/4/13,
http://tuftsobserver.org/an-escalating-crisis-why-china-and-japan-might-go-towar/]
The prospect of conflict between China and Japan is rising drastically over a set of
small uninhabited islands known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan and the Diaoyu Islands in China.
Diplomatic talks have stalled while nationalistic sentiments in both countries
have grown louder over the seemingly insignificant islands. Both China and Japan are
ramping up their military spending and the waters surrounding the islands
are becoming increasingly militarized. With little prospect of a sustainable solution, the

second and third largest economies in the world may well be sliding towards war. The Senkaku/Diaoyu
Islands lie in a strategic location in the East China Sea, roughly halfway between Japan and China. The
continental shelf surrounding the islands is rich in oil and natural gas. Japan currently owns the islands, but
China disputes that claim, arguing that Japan illegitimately colonized them during its imperial past. In its
defense, Japan states they discovered the islands in 1884. In addition, the United Nations Convention on
the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) gives Japan sovereignty over the islands. A series of recent political
blunders on Japans part, however, redefined the question of sovereignty into a territorial dispute. In 2010,
when a Chinese fishing trolley trespassed into the waters surrounding the islands, the Japanese Coast
Guard arrested the captain of the Chinese ship and brought him into custody. In protest, China suspended
rare earth mineral exports to Japan, which in turn took a severe toll on Japans economy. The crisis
deepened in September 2011, when Tokyos ultra-nationalist mayor attempted to purchase the islands
himself to ensure Japanese control. Aware that such a move might be incendiary, the Japanese central
government clumsily prevented the mayor from buying the islands, announcing its plan to nationalize
them instead. The plan backfired, inviting the argument that Japan never had legitimate control over the
islands in the first place. Moreover, China interpreted nationalizing as colonizing and loudly protested the
move. In the last few months, tensions have escalated, and both countries have become increasingly

In over a hundred cities across China,

thousands of protesters took to the streets, vandalizing Japanese restaurants,
stores, and cars. The anxious Japanese public elected the conservative Shinz
Abe as their new Prime Minister based upon his hawkish promises to deter
China. For the first time in more than a decade, Japan increased military
spending by over 180 billion yen (roughly $2 billion) at the beginning of
January. A week later, China sent surveillance vessels and patrol planes over
the islands. Japan responded by scrambling fighter jets and threatening to
respond with warning shots if China repeats the provocation. This territorial
dispute is particularly worrisome because, at this point, there is no
adamant about sovereignty over the islands.

diplomatic solution that will satisfy China, short of full control over the islands.
Both countries are dealing with nationalist publics who urge for military answers to
territorial disputes. The US has reaffirmed its commitment to defend Japan in case
of Chinese aggression, which raises the possibility that the US might be
drawn into a conflict if it occurs. Military conflict may appear
inevitable for these two nations, but only time will tell if they can manage to find an
alternate solution to appease their opponents aggression.