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It's a new year and that means time for some serious stock picking. Analysts at Bank of
America Merrill Lynch, the investment banking arm ofBank of America, named 10
companies that "could have the most significant market and business related catalysts
over the next three months," in a note to clients on Monday.
Those "catalysts" could move the stocks up or down. The analysts created the list by
picking stocks covered by Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts that "will significantly
outperform or underperform peers during the quarter."
For stocks that are predicted to outperform, only buy-rated companies were considered.
Similarly, for stocks predicted to underperform, only stocks with ratings an
"underperform" rating (equivalent to a "sell") were considered.
STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks with
serious upside potential in the next 12-months. Learn more.
BofA plans to publish a similar list each quarter. "Ideas will generally remain on the list
through the quarter unless coverage is dropped or the recommendation changes. Any
security which is removed will not be replaced. If there are any changes to the list during
the quarter we will publish the change in a research report. Securities are intended to
stay on the list for one quarter, though some may be chosen for the next quarter's list,"
the note said.
Here's the list of BofA's picks for the first quarter. Note two of the stocks on the list are
rated "underperform." We've paired the list with ratings from TheStreet
Ratings,TheStreet's proprietary ratings tool for another perspective. When you're done
be sure to check out the best small and mid-cap stocks to buy for 2016.
TheStreet Ratings uses a quantitative approach to rating over 4,300 stocks to predict
return potential for the next year. The model is both objective, using elements such as
volatility of past operating revenues, financial strength, and company cash flows, and
subjective, including expected equity market returns, future interest rates, implied
industry outlook and forecasted company earnings.
Buying an S&P 500 stock that TheStreet Ratings rated a buy yielded a 16.56% return in
2014, beating the S&P 500 Total Return Index by 304 basis points. Buying aRussell
2000 stock that TheStreet Ratings rated a buy yielded a 9.5% return in 2014, beating
the Russell 2000 index, including dividends reinvested, by 460 basis points last year.
1. CF Industries
The revenue growth came in higher than the industry average of 18.1%. Since
the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 0.7%. This
growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the company's
bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share.
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC's earnings per share declined by 25.6% in
the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. This
Return on equity has greatly decreased when compared to its ROE from the
same quarter one year prior. This is a signal of major weakness within the
corporation. Compared to other companies in the Chemicals industry and the
overall market on the basis of return on equity, CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS
INC has underperformed in comparison with the industry average, but has
exceeded that of the S&P 500.
The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter
one year ago, has underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500
and greatly underperformed compared to the Chemicals industry average. The
net income has significantly decreased by 30.6% when compared to the same
quarter one year ago, falling from $130.90 million to $90.90 million.
The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36 is relatively high when compared with the
industry average, suggesting a need for better debt level management. Along
with the unfavorable debt-to-equity ratio, CF maintains a poor quick ratio of
0.96, which illustrates the inability to avoid short-term cash problems.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: CF
2. Citizens Financial
We rate CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC (CFG - Get Report) as a Hold with a
ratings score of C-. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some
indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the
expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most
other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its
revenue growth, solid stock price performance and impressive record of earnings per
share growth. However, as a counter to these strengths, we find that the stock itself is
trading at a premium valuation.
Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:
CFG's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 1.4%.
Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 5.8%.
This growth in revenue appears to have trickled down to the company's bottom
line, improving the earnings per share.
Compared to where it was trading a year ago, CFG's share price has not
changed very much due to (a) the relatively weak year-over-year performance
of the overall market, (b) the company's stagnant earnings, and (c) other
mixed results.
When compared to other companies in the Commercial Banks industry and
the overall market, CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC's return on equity is
below that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
The gross profit margin for CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC is currently
very high, coming in at 85.38%. Regardless of CFG's high profit margin, it has
managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed
results of the gross profit margin, CFG's net profit margin of 16.57% is
significantly lower than the industry average.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: CFG
TheStreet Said: Recently, TheStreet Ratings objectively rated this stock according to its
"risk-adjusted" total return prospect over a 12-month investment horizon. Not based on
the news in any given day, the rating may differ from Jim Cramer's view or that of this
articles's author. TheStreet Ratings has this to say about the recommendation:
We rate JACK IN THE BOX INC (JACK - Get Report) as a Hold with a ratings score of
C+. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating
strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of
either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The
company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth, notable
return on equity and impressive record of earnings per share growth. However, as a
counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including generally higher debt
management risk, weak operating cash flow and poor profit margins.
Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:
JACK's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 1.1%.
Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 2.7%.
Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings
per share.
JACK IN THE BOX INC has improved earnings per share by 47.7% in the
most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company
has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the
past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. This trend suggests
that the performance of the business is improving. During the past fiscal year,
JACK IN THE BOX INC increased its bottom line by earning $2.95 versus
$2.26 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in
earnings ($3.64 versus $2.95).
Net operating cash flow has decreased to $61.73 million or 29.12% when
compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing the cash
generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is significantly lower.
The debt-to-equity ratio is very high at 44.84 and currently higher than the
industry average, implying increased risk associated with the management of
debt levels within the company. Along with this, the company manages to
maintain a quick ratio of 0.29, which clearly demonstrates the inability to cover
short-term cash needs.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: JACK
5. Kraft Heinz
6. NXP Semiconductors
Industry: Technology/Semiconductors
Market Cap: $21.4 billion
2015 return: 10.3%
BofA Rating/Price Objective: Buy/$105
BofA Said: NXPI is trading at a significant discount to peers at just 11x PE on our $8+
pro-forma earnings power in a rapidly consolidating industry. Despite weaker near-term
trends in Q4 (inventory issues), we think the expectations bar has been reset heading
into the first quarter following the merger with Freescale. We think recent near-term
headwinds could abate and lead to a positive earnings surprise in Q4/Q1. Additionally, a
lower exposure to mobile (incl. Apple) and higher exposure to longer cycle
auto/industrial should improve sentiment and trading multiples. Lastly, new product
announcements at CES in Jan could solidify investor views on NXP'sleadership in
auto/security markets.
Potential Catalysts: first quarter post-merger close with Freescale; focus on cost
synergies/balance sheet improvements and long-term forecasts
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TheStreet Said: Recently, TheStreet Ratings objectively rated this stock according to its
"risk-adjusted" total return prospect over a 12-month investment horizon. Not based on
the news in any given day, the rating may differ from Jim Cramer's view or that of this
articles's author. TheStreet Ratings has this to say about the recommendation:
We rate NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV (NXPI) as a Buy with a ratings score of B. This
is driven by a number of strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than
any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most
stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its
revenue growth, impressive record of earnings per share growth, compelling growth in
net income, expanding profit margins and solid stock price performance. We feel its
strengths outweigh the fact that the company shows weak operating cash flow.
Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:
NXPI's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 9.1%.
Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 0.5%.
Growth in the company's revenue appears to have helped boost the earnings
per share.
NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV reported significant earnings per share
improvement in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year
ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share
growth over the past two years. We feel that this trend should continue. During
the past fiscal year, NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV increased its bottom line by
earning $2.17 versus $1.34 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an
improvement in earnings ($5.43 versus $2.17).
The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has significantly
exceeded that of the S&P 500 and the Semiconductors & Semiconductor
Equipment industry. The net income increased by 198.3% when compared to
the same quarter one year prior, rising from $121.00 million to $361.00 million.
The gross profit margin for NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV is rather high;
currently it is at 54.99%. It has increased from the same quarter the previous
year. Along with this, the net profit margin of 23.71% is above that of the
industry average.
Looking at where the stock is today compared to one year ago, we find that it
is not only higher, but it has also clearly outperformed the rise in the S&P 500
over the same period. Although other factors naturally played a role, the
company's strong earnings growth was key. Looking ahead, the stock's rise
over the last year has already helped drive it to a level which is relatively
expensive compared to the rest of its industry. We feel, however, that the other
strengths this company displays justify these higher price levels.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: NXPI
7. Teva Pharmaceuticals
our attention to the future direction of the stock, it goes without saying that
even the best stocks can fall in an overall down market. However, in any other
environment, this stock still has good upside potential despite the fact that it
has already risen in the past year.
8. Under Armour
TheStreet Said: Recently, TheStreet Ratings objectively rated this stock according to its
"risk-adjusted" total return prospect over a 12-month investment horizon. Not based on
the news in any given day, the rating may differ from Jim Cramer's view or that of this
articles's author. TheStreet Ratings has this to say about the recommendation:
We rate UNDER ARMOUR INC (UA) as a Buy with a ratings score of B-. This is driven
by a number of strengths, which we believe should have a greater impact than any
weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than most
stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its
robust revenue growth, growth in earnings per share, increase in net income, solid stock
price performance and expanding profit margins. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact
that the company is trading at a premium valuation based on our review of its current
price compared to such things as earnings and book value.
Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:
The revenue growth came in higher than the industry average of 13.8%. Since
the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 28.4%. This growth in
revenue appears to have trickled down to the company's bottom line,
improving the earnings per share.
UNDER ARMOUR INC has improved earnings per share by 9.8% in the most
recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has
demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past
two years. We feel that this trend should continue. During the past fiscal year,
UNDER ARMOUR INC increased its bottom line by earning $0.95 versus
$0.75 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in
earnings ($1.05 versus $0.95).
The net income growth from the same quarter one year ago has greatly
exceeded that of the S&P 500, but is less than that of the Textiles, Apparel &
Luxury Goods industry average. The net income increased by 12.8% when
compared to the same quarter one year prior, going from $89.11 million to
$100.48 million.
The stock has not only risen over the past year, it has done so at a faster pace
than the S&P 500, reflecting the earnings growth and other positive factors
similar to those we have cited here. Looking ahead, the stock's rise over the
last year has already helped drive it to a level which is relatively expensive
compared to the rest of its industry. We feel, however, that the other strengths
this company displays justify these higher price levels.
The gross profit margin for UNDER ARMOUR INC is rather high; currently it is
at 50.93%. Regardless of UA's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease
from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit
margin, the net profit margin of 8.34% trails the industry average.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: UA
9. Cullen/Frost Bankers
universe and to the energy dependent markets in Texas, we expect San Antonio, Texas
based CFR to come under pressure. The negative impact from the decline in oil prices
to its credit quality metrics and loan growth are likely to serve as a potent source of
downside risk to CFR's 2016 EPS forecast. Moreover, with the stock still trading at
premium valuations at 2x current TBV vs. 1.3x median for TX peers we see downside
risk to the stock from multiple contraction.
Potential Catalysts: 4Q earnings and 2016 outlook could disappoint; headline risk
stemming from lower for longer oil prices
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money. Check out his multi-million dollar portfolio and discover which stocks he
is trading. Click here to see the holdings for 14-days FREE.
TheStreet Said: Recently, TheStreet Ratings objectively rated this stock according to its
"risk-adjusted" total return prospect over a 12-month investment horizon. Not based on
the news in any given day, the rating may differ from Jim Cramer's view or that of this
articles's author. TheStreet Ratings has this to say about the recommendation:
We rate CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC (CFR) as a Buy with a ratings score of B.
This is driven by several positive factors, which we believe should have a greater impact
than any weaknesses, and should give investors a better performance opportunity than
most stocks we cover. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as
its revenue growth, good cash flow from operations, notable return on equity and
expanding profit margins. We feel its strengths outweigh the fact that the company has
had lackluster performance in the stock itself.
Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:
CFR's revenue growth has slightly outpaced the industry average of 1.4%.
Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly increased by 4.2%.
This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled down to the
company's bottom line, displayed by a decline in earnings per share.
CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC' earnings per share from the most recent
quarter came in slightly below the year earlier quarter. This company has
reported somewhat volatile earnings recently. But, we feel it is poised for EPS
growth in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, CULLEN/FROST
BANKERS INC increased its bottom line by earning $4.29 versus $3.80 in the
prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($4.52
versus $4.29).
The return on equity has improved slightly when compared to the same
quarter one year prior. This can be construed as a modest strength in the
organization. Compared to other companies in the Commercial Banks industry
and the overall market on the basis of return on equity, CULLEN/FROST
BANKERS INC has outperformed in comparison with the industry average, but
has underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500.
Net operating cash flow has significantly increased by 223.71% to $241.58
million when compared to the same quarter last year. Despite an increase in
cash flow of 223.71%, CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC is still growing at a
significantly lower rate than the industry average of 301.28%.
The gross profit margin for CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC is currently very
high, coming in at 96.37%. Regardless of CFR's high profit margin, it has
managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed
results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 27.73% trails the
industry average.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: CFR
10. Gap
We rate GAP INC (GPS) as a Hold with a ratings score of C. The primary factors that
have impacted our rating are mixed - some indicating strength, some showing
weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative
performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can
be seen in multiple areas, such as its largely solid financial position with reasonable
debt levels by most measures, attractive valuation levels and expanding profit margins.
However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including
deteriorating net income, weak operating cash flow and disappointing return on equity.
Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:
The debt-to-equity ratio is somewhat low, currently at 0.67, and is less than
that of the industry average, implying that there has been a relatively
successful effort in the management of debt levels.
41.22% is the gross profit margin for GAP INC which we consider to be strong.
Regardless of GPS's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the
same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, the
net profit margin of 6.42% trails the industry average.
Net operating cash flow has decreased to $92.00 million or 22.03% when
compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing the cash
generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is significantly lower.
The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter
one year ago, has underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500
and greatly underperformed compared to the Specialty Retail industry
average. The net income has significantly decreased by 29.3% when
compared to the same quarter one year ago, falling from $351.00 million to
$248.00 million.
You can view the full analysis from the report here: GPS