Closing Bell

January 22, 2016

a74

Domestic Indices Snapshot

Indices
Close
S&P BSE Sensex
CNX Nifty
Nifty future
S&PBSE 500
S&PBSE Midcap
S&PBSE Smallcap
S&PBSE Bankex

Change

change%

473.45
145.65
145.15
191.30
190.31
232.86
481.84

2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.2
2.8

24,435.7
7,422.5
7,436.0
9,826.1
10,193.1
10,598.4
17,625.1

Market Snapshot

Sectoral Performance
5.0

4.3

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.0

2.8

Corporate/Economic Highlights

2.7

% Change

2.0
0.5

Banks

Oil & Gas

PSU

Auto

Metals

Capital Goods

-1.0

Nifty Top Gainers & Losers

5.4

5.3

1.7

InterGlobe Aviation tumbled 20% to | 960.80, despite net profit rose

23.7% to | 657.28 crore on 11.9% growth in revenue to | 4407.49
crore in Q3 December 2015 over Q3 December 2014
L&T Finance Holdings was up 3.2% to | 58.20,after consolidated net
profit rose 16.71% at | 211.96 crore on 15.66% growth in total
income to | 1864.02 crore in Q3 December 2015 over Q3 December
2014
Biocon ended flat at | 482, after the company's consolidated net
profit rose 13.31% to | 103 crore on 9.89% growth in total income to
| 856.10 crore in Q3 December 2015 over Q3 December 2014
Idea Cellular lost 6% to | 107, after consolidated net profit fell 0.37%
to | 764.21 crore on 10.92% rise in total income to | 9040.48 crore in
Q3 December 2015 over Q3 December 2014

Market Outlook

-0.8

-3.3

-3.2

BHARTIARTL

BOSCH

HINDALCO

M&M

GAIL

IDEA

-6.0

-8.3
% Change

Equity benchmarks surged over 2% on Friday to end a highly volatile

week on optimistic note as rebound in Crude prices, firm global
equities and expectations of fresh stimulus from European Central
bank helped improve sentiments.
The Sensex ended at 24435, up 473 points of 2% while Nifty jumped
145 points or 2% to settle at 7422
The broader markets out performed benchmarks as the BSE mid cap
and small cap indices gained 1.9% and 2.2% respectively. As a result
the market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was
extremely positive throughout the session

Market Breadth
Adv

Dec

BSE

2057

601

NSE

1177

199

NSE Cash Turnover

(| crore)

22-Jan

21-Jan

20-Jan

Nse Cash

17396

18043

18059

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

The Nifty started the session on a positive note tracking firm Asian
peers and overnight sharp rally in Crude prices. Index then continued
to strengthen as the session progressed, helped by broad based
buying in index heavyweights, to settle at highest point of the day
(7433). Bitten down Metal and PSU stocks led with gains over 3.5%4% each while all major sectoral indices gained in the range of 2.7%3.7% each
The price action formed a sizable bull candle, which carries higher
high and higher low. For the first time in 15 sessions, index closed
above previous sessions high and in a process also resolved above
the upper band of narrow falling channel which encompasses entire
decline since last 14 sessions signalling first sign of reversal of the
downtrend
As detailed in earlier edition, index made a sharp rebound from
extremely oversold readings on weekly Stochastic oscillator (14)
signalling pause in declining leg at last weeks low (7241). Our advice
of caution near crucial support of 7200, thus paid off. Going forward,
last weeks panic low of 7241 would remain a key support.
Structurally, the entire decline since March 2015 till date has
occurred in a well defined falling channel. The two major falling
segments during last one year have measured around 1100 points
post which the Nifty has witnessed a meaningful recovery. The key
thing to note is that the current fall from October 2015 till date (8336
to 7241 = 1095 points) achieved price wise equality with the
preceding two major falling segments. The index also tested the
lower band of the major falling channel on Wednesdays session.
Further it has been observed that time wise, index has not formed
more than three to four weekly bear candles in a row in the entire
decline since March 2015 till date. Currently, into the third week of fall,
we believe the selling climax will form a potential bottom during the
current week

The key support for the index is around 7200-7300, which is the
confluence of following technical observations:
Lower band of the down trending channel encompassing the
entire decline since March 2015 is currently at 7280
The price equality with previous two major corrective legs
since March 2015, which measured around 1100 points,
projects major support in the vicinity of 7230
The 161.8% external retracement of the recent pullback (75517972) is placed at 7290 while the closing low formed post
Union government formation in May 2014 is at 7250 levels
Among oscillators, the stochastic on weekly scale is poised at record
oversold reading of 5. Meanwhile the 14 day RSI is also exhibiting
minor positive divergence while being placed at the oversold
threshold of 29 reading. Historically, the displacement of RSI around
27 to 30 readings has triggered a pullback on price front

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Candlestick Chart

8654

1115 Point fall

8336
1095 Point fall so far

7979

7972

7551

7539

Major value area @

7300-7200 zone

7241

RSI exhibiting +ve divergence at the oversold threshold

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

\

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

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Exhibit 2: Event Calendar

Date
Event

US

22-Jan
25-Jan
25-Jan
26-Jan

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

Existing Home Sales MoM
Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
Markit US Services/Composite PMI

UK

22-Jan
22-Jan
22-Jan
22-Jan

Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM

Public Finances (PSNCR)
Central Government NCR
Public Sector Net Borrowing

China

27-Jan
28-Jan
28-Jan

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment

Swift Global Payments CNY
Leading Index

Page 3

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Technical & Derivative Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Disclaimer
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Page 5