Harry Potter and The Methods of Rationality

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HARRY POTTER
AND THE METHODS OF RATIONALITY
BY
ELIEZER YUDKOWSKY
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CONTENTS
ONE
o > V
TWO
2 2 *
THREE
X a 2
FOUR
a E 0
FIVE
a *
SIX
a V *
SEVEN
X
EIGHT
V
NINE
\
TEN
\
TWELVE
2
THIRTEEN
p W
FOURTEEN
a f f
FIFTEEN

SIXTEEN
> a
SEVENTEEN
> 0
EIGHTEEN
0
NINETEEN
+
TWENTY
a
TWENTY-ONE
X
TWENTY-TWO
a \ E
TWENTY-THREE

TWENTY-FOUR
E 2 0
TWENTY-FIVE
0 K V \
TWENTY-SIX
F
TWENTY-SEVEN

TWENTY-EIGHT
X
TWENTY-NINE

THIRTY
p +
THIRTY-ONE
p +
THIRTY-TWO
2 V * E
THIRTY-THREE
V
THIRTY-FOUR
V
THIRTY-FIVE
V
THIRTY-SIX
\
THIRTY-SEVEN
2
THIRTY-EIGHT
a \
THIRTY-NINE
V p
FORTY
V p
FORTY-ONE
* K
FORTY-TWO

FORTY-THREE
0
FORTY-FOUR
0
FORTY-FIVE
0
FORTY-SIX
0
FORTY-SEVEN
V a
FORTY-EIGHT
f V
FORTY-NINE
V 2
FIFTY
\
FIFTY-ONE
a \ V
FIFTY-TWO
a \ V
FIFTY-THREE
a \ V
FIFTY-FOUR
a \ V
FIFTY-FIVE
a \ V
FIFTY-SIX
K
FIFTY-SEVEN

FIFTY-EIGHT

FIFTY-NINE

SIXTY
a \ V
SIXTY-ONE
\ K
SIXTY-TWO
a \ V *
SIXTY-THREE
a \ V
SIXTY-FIVE
>
SIXTY-SIX
\
SIXTY-SEVEN
\
SIXTY-EIGHT
\
SIXTY-NINE
\
SEVENTY
\
SEVENTY-ONE
\
SEVENTY-TWO
V
SEVENTY-THREE
a \ E
SEVENTY-FOUR

SEVENTY-FIVE
X
SEVENTY-SIX
\ \
SEVENTY-SEVEN
2 \
SEVENTY-EIGHT
a a V
SEVENTY-NINE
a a
EIGHTY
a 0
EIGHTY-ONE
a a
EIGHTY-TWO
a a
EIGHTY-THREE
a a
EIGHTY-FOUR
a a
EIGHTY-FIVE

EIGHTY-SIX
E 0 a
EIGHTY-SEVEN
0
EIGHTY-EIGHT
a V
EIGHTY-NINE
a V
NINETY
X
NINETY-ONE
X
NINETY-TWO
X
NINETY-THREE
X
NINETY-FOUR
X
NINETY-FIVE
X
NINETY-SIX
X
NINETY-SEVEN
X
NINETY-EIGHT
X *
NINETY-NINE
X
ONE HUNDRED
V E
ONE HUNDRED AND ONE
V E
ONE HUNDRED AND TWO

ONE HUNDRED AND THREE
a
ONE HUNDRED AND FOUR
X
ONE HUNDRED AND FIVE
a a
ONE HUNDRED AND SIX
a a
ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN
a a
ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHT
X
ONE HUNDRED AND NINE
X
ONE HUNDRED AND TEN
X
ONE HUNDRED AND ELEVEN
*
ONE HUNDRED AND TWELVE

*
ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTEEN
*
ONE HUNDRED AND FOURTEEN
\ f a 2
ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTEEN
\ f a 2
ONE HUNDRED AND SIXTEEN
\ V
ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTEEN
\ V E E+
ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTEEN
\ V V W
ONE HUNDRED AND NINETEEN
\ V
ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY
\ V E
ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY-ONE
\ V \ \
ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY-TWO
\ V 0 +
Appendix A

Appendix B
K * 2 22 222
Appendix C
K * 2o V
Appendix D
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2

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CHAPTER
ONE
A DAY OF VERY LOW

PROBABILITY

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CHAPTER 1
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2
2
*
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*
A DAY OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY
*
*
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CHAPTER 1
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CHAPTER 1
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a
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CHAPTER
TWO
EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IS
FALSE
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CHAPTER 2
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10
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EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IS FALSE
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11
**
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CHAPTER 2
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p
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12
**
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EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IS FALSE
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a V E+
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p V E+ 0
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2

p p a 2

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13
CHAPTER
THREE
COMPARING REALITY TO
ITS ALTERNATIVES
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E+ a

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15
**
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CHAPTER 3
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p V E+

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p
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16
**
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COMPARING REALITY TO ITS

ALTERNATIVES
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17
**
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CHAPTER 3
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18
**
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COMPARING REALITY TO ITS

ALTERNATIVES
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p

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*
19
**
*
CHAPTER 3
*
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a 0

0
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20
CHAPTER
FOUR
THE EFFICIENT MARKET

HYPOTHESIS
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0
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p

0
p +
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o
F 0
2 2
+
K +

p V E+
+ K

2 0

+ 0 V E+
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21
**
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CHAPTER 4
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E
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22
**
*
THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS
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a +
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24
**
*
THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS
*
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p D F 2 0
2
2 1
2
a
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V E+
2
2 2 2
+ E V \ 2 2
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F
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2
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2 +
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*
25
**
*
CHAPTER 4
*
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2
2
2

t V E+ a
0

+
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2

26
CHAPTER
FIVE
THE FUNDAMENTAL
ATTRIBUTION ERROR
E \

X
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p > f

0
V E+
0
2 + V E+
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0
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0
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a
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27
**
*
CHAPTER 5
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28
**
*
THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR
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30
**
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31
**
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CHAPTER 5
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32
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33
**
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CHAPTER 5
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34
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35
**
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CHAPTER 5
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CHAPTER
SIX
THE PLANNING FALLACY
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**
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CHAPTER 6
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38
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39
**
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CHAPTER 6
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41
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CHAPTER 6
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42
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43
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CHAPTER 6
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44
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45
**
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CHAPTER 6
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46
**
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*
47
**
*
CHAPTER 6
*
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48
**
*
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a
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a

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*
49
**
*
CHAPTER 6
*
*
a
0
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v V E+
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*
50
**
*
*
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a
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v 2 0 2 }
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0

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E+
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v 2
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51
**
*
CHAPTER 6
*
*
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F 2 V E+

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V E+
2

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a 2
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a
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52
**
*
*
*
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E V 2 2
2
K V E+ 0
2
2
V

0 K

0 2 V 2

X
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2 } V E+ 2
E
2
E
2
2
2
2 2 2
a
_} }
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2
\
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p
*
53
**
*
CHAPTER 6
*
*
0

0
K
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1 } }
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0

>

a

1 } }
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a a }
p

a

>

V E+ }
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2 }} 0
0

*
54
**
*
*
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p }
v V E+
0

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p
p
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*
55
**
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CHAPTER 6
*
*

2
V E+ a F F
2
0
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a

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2

V E+

2 V 0 \

0
V E+ 0
a K
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56
**
*
*
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a > K 2 }
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2 } 2 4
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V E+
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2
0
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2
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p 0

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v } E V
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2 }} v
}
0

*
57
**
*
CHAPTER 6
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101
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CHAPTER
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SELF AWARENESS, PART I

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119
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142
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CHAPTER
FIFTY-TWO
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FIFTY-FIVE
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EXPERIMENT, PART V

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CHAPTER
SIXTY-NINE
SELF ACTUALIZATION,
PART IV
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CHAPTER
SEVENTY-ONE
SELF ACTUALIZATION,
PART VI

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SELF ACTUALIZATION VI
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CHAPTER
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SELF ACTUALIZATION,
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1129 *
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CHAPTER 73
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CHAPTER 73
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CHAPTER 73
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1134 *
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1135 *
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CHAPTER 73
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1137 *
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CHAPTER 73
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1138 *
CHAPTER
SEVENTY-FOUR
SELF ACTUALIZATION,
PART IX:
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SELF ACTUALIZATION IX:

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1141
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CHAPTER 74
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1142 *
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1143 *
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CHAPTER 74
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1151
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CHAPTER 74
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1153 *
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CHAPTER 74
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1154 *
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1155 *
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CHAPTER 74
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1157 *
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CHAPTER 74
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1159 *
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CHAPTER 74
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1160 *
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1161
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CHAPTER 74
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1163 *
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CHAPTER 74
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1164 *
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**
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CHAPTER 74
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1166 *
CHAPTER
SEVENTY-FIVE
SELF ACTUALIZATION,
PART X:
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**
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CHAPTER 75
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1168 *
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1169 *
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CHAPTER 75
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1170 *
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1172 *
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1173 *
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CHAPTER 75
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1174 *
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1175 *
**
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CHAPTER 75
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1176 *
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1177 *
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CHAPTER 75
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1178 *
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1179 *
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CHAPTER 75
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1181 *
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1182 *
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1183 *
CHAPTER
SEVENTY-SIX
SELF-ACTUALIZATION,
AFTERMATHS: SURFACE
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0
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1185 *
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CHAPTER 76
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1186 *
**
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SELF-ACTUALIZATION, AFTERMATHS:
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1187 *
**
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CHAPTER 76
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CHAPTER
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CHAPTER
SEVENTY-NINE
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PART I
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CHAPTER 79
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* 1274 *
**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS I
*
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TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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CHAPTER 79
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**
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TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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* 1280 *
**
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TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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CHAPTER 79
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* 1282 *
**
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TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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CHAPTER 79
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a

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* 1284 *
**
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TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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a V a
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CHAPTER 79
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* 1286 *
**
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TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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CHAPTER 79
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* 1288 *
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TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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*
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CHAPTER 79
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**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS I
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1291 *
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CHAPTER 79
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**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS I
*
*
a \

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CHAPTER
EIGHTY
TABOO TRADEOFFS,
PART II:
THE HORNS EFFECT
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CHAPTER 80
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**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS II: THE HORNS EFFECT
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CHAPTER 80
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CHAPTER 80
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**
*
*
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> E
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1311
CHAPTER
EIGHTY-ONE
TABOO TRADEOFFS,
PART III

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CHAPTER 81
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1314 *
**
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TABOO TRADEOFFS III
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CHAPTER 81
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0

0

*
1316 *
**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS III
*
*
0

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p

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1317 *
**
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CHAPTER 81
*
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a
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p

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v > E v
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2
*
1318 *
**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS III
*
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2 0
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v

a 4 0 a
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0
a
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v
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2
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1319 *
**
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CHAPTER 81
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**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS III
*
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2 0
V E+

E + V E+
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0
0 + 0

a
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a

0
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*
1321 *
**
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CHAPTER 81
*
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p >

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* 1322 *
**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS III
*
*

a v
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p
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p

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0

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CHAPTER 81
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* 1324 *
**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS III
*
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**
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CHAPTER 81
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* 1326 *
**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS III
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CHAPTER 81
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CHAPTER
EIGHTY-TWO
TABOO TRADEOFFS,
PART FINAL

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CHAPTER 82
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* 1330 *
**
*
TABOO TRADEOFFS FINAL
*
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**
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CHAPTER 82
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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1431 *
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 86
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CHAPTER 87
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CHAPTER 87
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CHAPTER 87
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1461 *
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CHAPTER 87
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CHAPTER
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CHAPTER
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a V
0
0
**
*
2 0
+
* 1547 *
CHAPTER
NINETY-FOUR
ROLES, PART V
a
\
0
X

2 0 V

W
W
a 0 V
a

F
E V 0

\
0 2

a

0

0 +

* 1549 *
**
*
CHAPTER 94
*
*

a

2 0
V *
a 0
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0 0 *0
a
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0
0 0 2 2
2 0 + a
a
2 0 +
a
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+
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+
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F

F 0

a
F
p \
* 1550 *
**
*
ROLES V
*
*
2 p
0
2
0 + E 0
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n} V E+
F
0 +
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2 o 2
0 V F
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E
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a 0 a
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0
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*
1551 *
**
*
CHAPTER 94
*
*
0

0

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a a 0
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2 0
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a
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* 1552 *
**
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ROLES V
*
*
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* 1553 *
**
*
CHAPTER 94
*
*
2
0

} }}

a
0
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p
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* 1554 *
**
*
ROLES V
*
*
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o
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* 1555 *
**
*
CHAPTER 94
*
*
} V
E+
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a

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a 0 F + E
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*
p 0
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a
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2 2

**
*
0 0 *
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a p
0
* 1556 *
**
*
ROLES V
*
*
a \ 0 +
>
D 4
D a
0 E p
2
0 0 2
X
F
\ p 0 +

a 0 + a
0 \
\ \ 0 +
+ p
+ \ 0

a 2

2 0 2 +
+

0 + p
v v
2
a v * + p 0
+ 2
0 2 0 2
+ + a p

+
K
*

* 1557 *
**
*
CHAPTER 94
*
*
a 0
**
*
a 0
X
F >

\ 2

1 E
0 0 F
0
2 + F
2
2
p
>
F a
F
v
2
0

\ F
Z} F
2 F 0
2

0 2
0 F 2
0 2
* 1558 *
**
*
ROLES V
*
*
v t 1
2 F
a
p p a
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2 F

a
v
2
K

2 }}
F > 0 F
v
F
2 F 0
2

a
0 V a
* 1559 *
CHAPTER
NINETY-FIVE
ROLES, PART VI
a

S

2 * *
0
a 0

0 * *
0

0
0 a

K 0

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2
*
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*
1561 *
**
*
CHAPTER 95
*
*

2

}

p
>
*

K E
E

a

2 \

+
0
p

0
a

T U
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0 aa

* 1562 *
**
*
ROLES VI
*
*
\ V W

0
E V V W 2
v 2 2
\ 0 V W
0

V W
0
0

V W
a
0
V W a 2
p
2 a E V
1 0 I
**
*
a 0 aa

V E+
V 0

aa
**
*
p V W
* 1563 *
**
*
CHAPTER 95
*
*
F 0
aa v 2
a 2 2
V W
2
V 2

a

V W a
2
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0
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a
X
0

\ V W
2

2 a 2
E V

2 0
0 2 }
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0
0
a 2 V
W a
0
0
* 1564 *
**
*
ROLES VI
*
*

a a

a
0

a

a
a 0

E p

V W a

a V

F 0
p V W

2
a
F
a a
0 \ 2
0
\ 0

a
a
2
* 1565 *
**
*
CHAPTER 95
*
*
2

0
2 2
V F
V \
E

a Z
a
\ \

a E
E 2
2
V 0 2 2

V
a
\ \ +
}
\
a \

\ E
0

2 V

v E 2 2
a
2
\
\
0 E
* 1566 *
**
*
ROLES VI
*
*
K E
a
\ 0

2 2 V 2
v E V 2
E 2
\
E
a

K
V
a
2 a

a
2
E V 0
+
0 V 2
2 0 2
2 0

a

2 2 2
E E
2 2

p 0
\ \

* 1567 *
**
*
CHAPTER 95
*
*
a
F 0
2
\ a

0

a p

2 E V

K 0 F V
* } a *

K a
F
a

0 0
>

a
a V \

E

2

* 1568 *
**
*
ROLES VI
*
*
E V 2
V

0
a
V
a

2 V

a
2

a
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a

p

0 + F
2
*

0 0
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E
a 2
0 a 2 K
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\ a
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* 1569 *
**
*
CHAPTER 95
*
*
a X E a 2 \
V a 2 F
0 p E V
X

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E +
V
v E V
v
a
0
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}}
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V } } E V a
K

a 2 2 V E+
2 2
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} }
a V 2
0 +
2 E
F > E+
a
\ p E V a
p
* 1570 *
**
*
ROLES VI
*
*

2 V 0

>
2

0
2
2 2
2
a
v
v
a V
2
2 v
F
2 0 v

a

0

V

p V
W p E V
2 2 2

v } 0
*
1571 *
**
*
CHAPTER 95
*
*
E 2 2
\ E E
2
E V 2
0
V W \
2 2 2 2
+ V +
E V
+ 0
a

0

a 0 a

0

0

a
* 1572 *
CHAPTER
NINETY-SIX
ROLES, PART VII

a

0 V
*
0 V

1 } } } }
\
a
X >
V E+ W
W
a
+ 0 X >
E

p
p + 0

0 >

K + 0 0
+ +

* 1573 *
**
*
CHAPTER 96
*
*
a V
V
X >
a X
V
4 V > 0
0 + 0 a
4
X
a p X
X
4 E
a X
**
*
0 E >
2 0
0
\ 0 X
X X X X F
0
E >
4 > 0
\ 0

0 2
E >
0
E E
a 0 0
* 1574 *
**
*
ROLES VII
*
*
X > 0
0
0 0

0 0 4
V > o > V

2

2 0
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E > 0
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0 o
2
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* 1575 *
**
*
CHAPTER 96
*
*
p > 4 0
> K
K
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a

p E > 0
2
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p
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0
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* 1576 *
**
*
ROLES VII
*
*

E 0
a

a

p
p

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0
>

K K
> 4 V
a 0 V
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* 1577 *
**
*
CHAPTER 96
*
*
2 0 V
a
2 4 2
a
X >
p> v
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0
t } 0

a
>

2 > V > o

>
a
a

X
0

\
K
0} * 0
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* 1578 *
**
*
ROLES VII
*
*

} } } }
} } } C
} } } } }
a + 0 0
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a

a E >

0 0

E >
a

p 0 p
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KXF EX0
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KXF 4FfXv
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* 1579 *
**
*
CHAPTER 96
*
*
a E > a 2
V a 2
4
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* 1580 *
**
*
ROLES VII
*
*
0

I } } 1 } 1 } }
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C
0 a E >
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0
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v E > 0 }

a
E

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2

X > v
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*
1581 *
**
*
CHAPTER 96
*
*
> 4 V 2
2
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p 0 a

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F

0
\
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\
a E > 0
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2 2 2 E >
V 2

V a
Fpa 0 Kp> 2

0 E >
* 1582 *
**
*
ROLES VII
*
*
**
*
0 0 X a
0

0 X

a
X

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*
c T} } } } }
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\ V
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* 1583 *
CHAPTER
NINETY-SEVEN
ROLES, PART VIII

0 0
X
E

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*
* 1585 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
a \
a > E 0
V > E +
+
a p
0 V 0
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a 0 0 0 V

a p 0
0
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p>
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E
K + o

p>
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+ *
U * K 0 +

\
2
0 + X

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V *
> o
> o
* 1586 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*
0
p> 0 +

a
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+

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a

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2
* 1587 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*

F 0 p E

0 V

E
0
a
K

a
F

+ a

2 }}
K
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2
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W
0

0 + 0 E
p

* 1588 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*
} 0
0 F 1
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> 2
0

> E 2
0 0 V p

2 0 2 2 2
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a n
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p>
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+
F

0 V }
2 \ E

m} } }
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0

2 E
V
0
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* 1589 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
p>

2 K 2
F 2
2

v
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0 2

} E >
\ <
a
a
K 0 \

2 p 2

a
V

v E
2 a

1 } }
F > E * a
E n
0 v
0

2 2
2 2 0 E
E
* 1590 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*
0

\ > E
p a
0
2 0
a 0 V
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Z}
a V 0
V 0
V W E
a
a
< m 1 1 }
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0 > E 2 2

2 2

2 *
0
v * 0
+ a
0 }

2 0 _} > E
0
0
2 K
o p>
*
1591 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
> E 0 0 +
F 0 V
+ 0

2 K
0 +
p
2 > E
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0
0 } } 0
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V >
E 0
a 1
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}
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2 *
0 V
0 \
2 2
0
V W
2
u v
2
u v u v
F 2 u v
u
v > E
* 1592 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*
+ v
+

V
a V > E 2

f
+ 0
> a

F *
a > 0 0

2 2
p 2
2
0 E

0 > E > E v
0 +
*E
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2 p
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p
2

a

v } > E
2 > E v
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2

v +
* 1593 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
2 0 2 2
0 E
>
0
a
v
2 +
0
* + a E v
E
a
a 2
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a
K > E 2
0
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2
K

v > E v

v 2
0 0

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0
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F
a 0
* 1594 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*

<} } < } } } } }
} } } } t
} } } } } }
}
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a t
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E
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p
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* 1595 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
a >
0
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2
2 > E 2
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0
2
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a 0
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p
V
E
2
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2 2 + 0
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p 0

0 V 0 E 0
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+ 2 a
}
* 1596 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*
F 2 > E
0

p 0 > E
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2
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0 > E

K \ \ > E
a V
W F 2 0
V
2 > E
v
2
2 \

0 E
a >
0
2

0 > E
2
2
2

* 1597 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
2 E
> E F
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a
2 2
> E 0 > 2

a E a
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F 0 2

p

D } } F

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2
2
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* 1598 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*
} 2 +

0 0 >
p

E

a

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p +
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f 0 2
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* 1599 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
K E

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2 > E 2

a 2
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0
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a > E

p 0
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p

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F
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0

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* 1600 *
**
*
ROLES VIII
*
*

}}
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p

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*
1601 *
**
*
CHAPTER 97
*
*
> 2 p
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Harry Potter and The Methods of Rationality

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0XXv VKaaX F a0

ONE HUNDRED AND TWELVE

A DAY OF VERY LOW

A DAY OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY

A DAY OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY

A DAY OF VERY LOW PROBABILITY

EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IS FALSE

EVERYTHING I BELIEVE IS FALSE

COMPARING REALITY TO ITS

COMPARING REALITY TO ITS

THE EFFICIENT MARKET

THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS

THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS

THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR

THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR

THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR

THE FUNDAMENTAL ATTRIBUTION ERROR

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

THE PLANNING FALLACY

SELF AWARENESS, PART I

SELF AWARENESS, PART II

ASKING THE WRONG

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

ASKING THE WRONG QUESTIONS

THE UNKNOWN AND THE

THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNKNOWABLE

THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNKNOWABLE

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THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNKNOWABLE

THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNKNOWABLE

THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNKNOWABLE

THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNKNOWABLE

THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNKNOWABLE

TRANSFIGURATION IS NOT PERMANENT!

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

LOCATING THE HYPOTHESIS

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