Power System Reliability: adequacy-long

term planning, procurement security,

planning criteria

Rajkumar A, Engineer
Western Regional Load Dispatch Center
India

OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION

Power System Reliability

Adequacy and security

Concepts and terminologies

Load forecasting-long term
Generation planning and procurement security
Transmission planning criteria

Exceptional circumstances before

Disturbance
Lessons to be learnt from Grid
Disturbance
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RELIABILITY--DEFINITIONS
A measure of the ability of a system, generally
given as numerical indices, to deliver power to all
points of utilisation within acceptable standards
and in amounts desired. Power system reliability
(comprising generation and transmission &
distribution facilities) can be described by two
basic functional attributes: adequacy and security.
(Cigr definition)
Reliability is the probability of a device or a system
performing its function adequately, for the period
of time intended, under the operating conditions
intended. (IEEE PES definition)
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Power System Reliability Evaluation

4

System Reliability

System
Adequacy
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System
Security
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Adequacy
5

- Relates to the existence of sufficient facilities within the

system to satisfy the consumer load demand or operational
constraints.
-include the facilities necessary to generate sufficient energy
and the associated transmission and distribution facilities
required to transport the energy to the actual consumer
load points.
-associated with static conditions, which are long-term
analyses.

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Security
6

- Relates to the ability of the system to respond to

disturbances arising within that system.
-Security is therefore associated with the response of
the system to whatever perturbations it is subject.

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Security
7

-These include the conditions associated with both

local and widespread disturbances and the loss of
major generation and / or transmission facilities,
which can cause dynamic, transient, or voltage
instability of a power system
-associated with dynamic or transient conditions
and associated with short-term analyses.

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Analysis of reliability.hierarchial levels

8

1.

Generation only (Level 1)

2.

Generation + Transmission (Level 2)

3.

Generation + Transmission+ Distribution (Level 3)

Analysis involving level 3 are not generally done due to

enormity of the problem.
Most of the probabilistic techniques for reliability
assessment are with respect to adequacy assessment.
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Reliability Indices (1)

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ENS = Energy Not Supplied = (kwh/y.) = Total energy

not supplied = UE = Unserved Energy

AENS = Average Energy Not Supplied = (kwh/y. Cust.) =

Total energy not supplied / Total number of customers

served

LOLP = Loss of Load Probability =The probability that

the total production in system cannot meet the load

demand

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Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)

10

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Optimal value of 11reliability

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Optimal value of 12reliability (2)

The costs of the producer = CR

The costs of the consumers = CIC

CIC = Customer Interruption Costs (= VOLL =

Value of Lost Load)

At the optimum : CR = - CIC (= - VOLL)

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13

Time scale involved

in security analysis

Source: IEEE tutorial

2006 Delhi, Mohd.
Shahidehpour
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the generation boundary conditions

range from 400 MW to 1100 MW.
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"Scatter" plot of planning scenarios.

15

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The approach to real-time narrows the system operator's

assumptions.
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Generation planning and procurement security

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FA, FB and FC are the fixed costs,

VA, VB and VC the variable costs of above plants
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How many outage hours to allow?

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Load should be unserved in hours when the cost of serving it would exceed
Value Of Lost Load (VOLL). Put algebraically, outage makes sense so long as
VOLL (Outage Hours) < FA + (VA (Outage Hours)),
and solving this gives us the answer.
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Peaking capacity versus mid-load plant?

19

Peakers are the least cost option so long as

FA + X*(VA) < FB + X*(VB),
and solving for X gives us the number of hours that the last peaker
built runs.
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How much peaking capacity to build?

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Calculation of mid load and base load capacity

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Generation planning
22

In a competitive market also, the mix of plant types

are arrived at similar to centralized planning except

that it is through a decentralized price discovery and
profitability analysis.

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Transmission planning
23

Once we have the load forecast and generation

location, it is easy to identify where to build lines

and how many.

In India the transmission planning is done as per

the Manual on Transmission Planning Criteria

prepared by CEA in June 1994

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CEA Transmission planning criteria (1)

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Section 2.2: The system shall be evolved based on

detailed power system studies which shall include




Power flow studies

Short Circuit Studies
Stability Studies (including transient stability, voltage stability and
steady state oscillatory stability studies)
EMTP studies to determine switching / temporary overvoltages
 Note: Voltage stability, oscillatory stability and EMTP studies may
not form part of perspective planning studies. These are however
required to be done before any scheme report is finalized.

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CEA Transmission planning criteria (2)

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Section 2.4:
The following options may
strengthening of the transmission network.

be

considered

for

Addition of new Transmission lines to avoid overloading of existing

system. (whenever three or more circuits of the same voltage class are
envisaged between two sub stations, the next transmission voltage
should also be considered.)

Application of Series Capacitors in existing transmission line to increase

power transfer capability.

Up gradation of the existing AC transmission lines

Reconductoring of the existing AC transmission line with higher size

conductors or with AAAC.

Adoption of multi-voltage level and multi-circuit transmission lines.

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CEA Transmission planning criteria (3)

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2.5

ln case of generating station close to a major load center, sensitivity of its

complete closure with loads to be met (to the extent possible) from other
generating stations shall also be studied.

2.6

In case of transmission system associated with Nuclear Power Stations

there shall be two independent sources of power supply for the purpose of
providing start-up power facilities. Further the angle between start-up
power source and the NPP switchyard should be, as far as possible,
maintained within 10 degrees.

2.7

The evacuation system for sensitive power stations viz., Nuclear Power
stations, shall generally be planned so as to terminate it at large load
centers to facilitate islanding of the power station in case of contingency.

2.8

Where only two circuits are planned for evacuation of power from a
generating station, these should be ( as far as possible) two single circuit
lines instead of a double circuit line.

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CEA Transmission planning criteria (4)

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2.9

Reactive power flow through ICTs shall be minimal. Normally it

shall not exceed l0% of the rating of the ICTs. Wherever voltage on
HV side of ICT is less than 0.975 pu no reactive power shall
flow
through ICT.

2.10

Thermal/nuclear Generating units shall normally not run at leading

power factor. However, for the purpose of charging, generating
unit
may be allowed to operate at leading power factor as per the
respective capability curve.

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CEA Transmission planning criteria (5)

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3.2

LOAD DEMANDS

3.2.1

The profile of annual and daily demands will be determined from past data.
These data will usually give the demand at grid supply points and for the
whole system identifying the annual and daily peak demand.

3.2.2

Active Power (MW)

The system peak demands shall be based on the latest reports of Electric
Power survey (EPS) Committee. ln case these peak load figures are more
than the peaking availability, the loads will be suitably adjusted substation- wise
to match with the availability. The load demands at other periods (seasonal
variations and minimum loads) shall be derived based on the annual peak
demand and past pattern of load variations. From practical considerations the
load variations over the year shall be considered as under:





Annual Peak Load

Seasonal variation in Peak loads (corresponding to high thermal and high hydro
generation)
Minimum load.
Off -Peak Load relevant where Pumped Storage Plants are involved or inter-regional
exchanges are envisaged.

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Section 3.5 of IEGC: Planning Criteria

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The policy, standards and guidelines issued by the CEA for the
planning and design of the Transmission system

ISTS shall be capable of withstanding and be secured against

the following outages without necessitating load shedding or

rescheduling of generation during steady state operation
Outage of a 132 kV D/C line or
Outage of a 220 kV D/C line or
Outage of a 400 kV S/C line or
Outage of a single ICT or
Outage of one pole of HVDC bi pole or
Outage of 765 kV S/C line

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Section 3.5 of IEGC:

Planning Criteria
30

Any one of these events defined above shall

not cause:
o
o

o
o
o

Loss of supply
Prolonged operation of the system frequency below
and above specified limits.
Unacceptable high or low voltage
System instability
Unacceptable overloading of ISTS elements

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Section 3.5 of IEGC: Planning Criteria

31

The

above contingencies shall be considered assuming a pre

contingency system depletion (Planned outage) of another 220
kV D/C line or 400 kV S/C line in another corridor and not
emanating from the same substation.

All

the Generating Units may operate within their reactive

capability curves and the network voltage profile shall also be
maintained within voltage limits specified.

The ISTS shall be capable of withstanding the loss of most severe

single system in feed without loss of stability

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Operating limits
32

Thermal limits
o

Establishes the maximum electrical current that a electrical

facility can conduct before it sustains permanent damage

Voltage limits
o
o

Must be maintained within IEGC band

Wide spread collapse in system voltage can lead to blackout

Stability limits
o

Oscillations must diminish when electrical system attains a

new stable operating point
Instability may cause equipment damage/blackout

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Classification Reliability Indices

33

The reliability indices can be divided into system

probability indices and severity indices.
System probability indices are calculated without
remedial actions and thus represent an upper
bound on reliability.
Severity indices are computed after remedial actions
and are thus a lower bound.

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System Probability Indices

34

In system probability indices basic values,

maximum values, average values, bus isolation

values are calculated. The detailed explanation of
these indices are given as follows

Basic Values

Probability of failure
 Expected frequency of failure
 Expected number of voltage violations
 Expected number of load curtailments
 Expected load curtailed
 Expected energy not supplied
 Expected duration of load curtailed


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Reliability Indices(2)
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1) Probability of failure at bus k, Qk = Pj Pkj

j
2) Expected frequency of failure at bus k,
Fk = F j Pkj
j

Where j is an outage condition in the network

Pj - the probability of existence of outage j;
Fj - the frequency of occurrence of outage j;
Pkj - the probability of the load at bus K exceeding the
maximum load that can be supplied at that bus
during the outage j.

3) Expected number of voltage violations = jV

where jV includes all contingencies, which cause voltage violation
at bus K.
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Reliability Indices(3)
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4)

Expected number of load curtailments =

jx , y

where jx includes all contingencies resulting in line overloads

which are alleviated by load curtailment at bus K.
jy includes all contingencies which result in an isolation of
bus K.
5) Expected load curtailed =
L F

kj

jx, y

where Lkj is the load curtailment at bus K to alleviate line

overloads arising due to the contingency j.
6)

Expected energy not supplied =

kj

Dkj F j MWh

jx , y

= Lkj Pj 8760 MWh

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Distribution Reliability
37

Why distribution Reliability?



Number of alternatives are available to the distribution

engineer in order to achieve acceptable customer reliability.

Alternating reinforcement schemes, allocation of spares,

alliterative operating policies.

Data Required
Failure rate, manual sectionalizing time, Outage duration of
each component connected in distribution system
Three primary terms
o

Average failure rate

Average outage duration

Average annual outage time

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Customer oriented indices(1)

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System average interruption frequency index[SAIFI]:

=Total number of customer interruptions/Total number of
customers served
Customer average interruption frequency index[CAIFI]:
=Total number of customer interruptions/Total number of
customers affected
System average interruption duration index[SAIDI]:
=Sum of customer interruption durations/Total number of
customers
Customer average interruption duration index[CAIDI]:
=Sum of customer interruption durations/Total number of customer
interruptions
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Customer oriented indices(2)

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Average service availability index[ASAI]:

= Customer hrs of available service/ Customer hrs

demanded
Average service unavailability index[ASUI]:=1-ASAI

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40

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Exceptional Circumstances- Disturbance

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Monsoon Failure, Deficit in NR,

Surplus in WR, ER & NER

Uncontrolled Over Drawls

Network Depletion( N-G-3 Contingency)

Non Availability of Data

Poor Visualizations(220kV network, Tie Breaker, Dia).

Flow Gate Violations

High Angular Differences

Huge Infirm Power Injections of 600 MW and above

Communication among operators in understandable

terminology

Hidden failures relays
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Angular separation on 30.07.12 (GD)

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Angular separation on 31.07.12 (GD)

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Lessons-Bottlenecks (1)
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Absence of
 Primary Response of Generators
 Automatic Generation Control(AGC)
 Full fledged Tie Line Control
 Ancillary Services(Dynamic)
 Decision Support Systems(online )
 Robust Communication systems

Manual Control Instructions and Actions.

Line Loadability- lack of Dynamic Compensation

and control

Inadequate/lack of WAMS assisted tools
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Lessons-Regulatory Affairs (2)

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Difficulties in imposing congestion

Freedom for Over drawl/Underdrawl

No stringent regulation beyond permissible UI

Volume

Wide Floating Frequency

Inadequate commercial mechanism for




Black Start services

Dynamic Support Services
Reactive Power Support services

Requirement for Full fledged Reliability body.

Long live ABT- need for a optimal mix of Market &

System operation oriented Tariff structure.

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Lessons-Inadequacies (3)
46

Under Frequency & df/dt Load Shedding

Un successful Black start units During emergency

N-k Compliance.

Inadequate response from utilities for RLDC messages

Huge Gap between SIL and Thermal Rating




zone 3 settings
Dynamic Compensation
Dynamic Reserves

Inadequate SPS & Islanding schemes for emergency

situations.

No Hotline Communication among Control Centers
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Thank You
47

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