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June 14, 2010 Housing & Banking are Front and Center as Markets Stabilize
The yield on the 10-Year Treasury remains low but rose last week. Gold sets a new high last
week at $1254.5. The euro is trying to rebound towards my quarterly pivot at 1.2450 to alleviate
oversold conditions. Crude oil is trying to return to my annual pivot at $77.05. Stocks are trying
to return to their June 3rd highs. To get those home buyer tax credits home sales must close by
June 30th. Congress focuses on Financial Reform. The FDIC loses just one bank last Friday.
US Treasury Yields It appears that the yield on the 10-Year is in a trading range between the 200-day
simple moving average at 3.548 and the recent low yield at 3.061. On Thursday the US Treasury
announces its next supply deluge and next week will auction $40 billion 2-Year notes on Tuesday, $39
billion 5-Year notes on Wednesday and $30 billion 7-Year notes on Thursday. Freddie Mac reported a
4.72% fixed rate for its 30-Year mortgage last week with Bankrate.com at 4.84%. On March 31st the
spread to the 10-Year was 115 basis points, today the spread ranges between 148 and 156 BPs.
Nymex Crude Oil shows rising MOJO on its daily chart with the 200-day simple moving average at
$76.76. This weeks support is $68.34 with my annual risky level at $77.05.
Daily Dow: The Dow could not take out its 200-day simple moving average at 10,299 on June 3rd, and
this weeks challenge is the 200-day, now at 10,313 with my annual pivot at 10,379. Rising MOJO
means that a close today above the 21-day simple moving average at 10,201, which will target 10,313
and 10,379 with the 50-day 10,662. It seems that the April 26th high at 11,258 ends the bear market
rally since March 2009, and starts the second leg of the multi-year bear market.