Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
(s,S)
( S) Policy
li
Supply Contracts
Risk Pooling
Risk
Pooling
Customers,
demand
centers sinks
Sources:
Plants vendors
ports
Regional warehouses:
Stocking points
Field warehouses:
Stocking points
Supply
Transportation costs
Transportation costs
Goals:
Reduce Cost, Improve Service
By effectively managing inventory:
Xerox eliminated $700 million inventory from its supply chain
Wal-Mart became the largest retail company utilizing
management
GM has reduced parts inventory and transportation costs by
26% annually
Goals:
Reduce Cost, Improve Service
By not managing inventory successfully
In 1994, IBM continues to struggle with shortages in their
ThinkPad line (WSJ, Oct 7, 1994)
In 1993,
1993,
Liz
Liz Claiborne said its unexpected earning decline is
the consequence of higher than anticipated excess
In
I 1993
1993, Dell
D ll Computers
C
t
predicts
di t a loss;
l
Stock
St k plunges.
l
Dell
D ll
acknowledged that the company was sharply off in its
forecast of demand, resulting in inventory write downs
(WSJ, August 1993)
Understanding Inventory
The inventory policy is affected by:
Demand Characteristics
Lead Time
Number of Products
Objectives
j
Service level
Minimize costs
Cost Structure
The Effect of
Demand Uncertainty
Most companies treat the world as if it were
predictable:
Production and inventory planning are based on
forecasts of demand made far in advance of the
selling season
Companiies are aware off demand
d
d uncertainty
i
when they create a forecast, but they design their
planning process as if the forecast truly represents
reality
Demand Forecast
The three principles of all forecasting
t h i
techniques:
Forecasting is always wrong
The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the
forecast
Aggregate forecasts are more accurate
The Effect of
Demand Uncertainty
Most companies treat the world as if it were
predi
dicttable:
bl
Production and inventory planning are based on forecasts of
demand made far in advance of the selling season
Companies are aware of demand uncertainty when they
create a forecast, but they design their planning process as
if th forecast
if the
f
t ttruly
l represents
t reality
lit
Jan 01
Design
Feb 00
Production
Jan 02
Production
Sepp 00
Feb 01
Retailing
Sepp 01
18
00
0
16
00
0
14
00
0
12
00
0
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
80
00
10
00
0
Probabiliity
Demand Scenarios
Sales
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
SnowTime Costs
Profit =
What to Make?
Question: Will this quantity be less
than equal to,
than,
to or greater than average
demand?
Average demand is 13,100
Look at marginal cost Vs
Vs. marginal
profit
if exttra jackkett sold
ld, profit
fit is
i 125-80
125 80 = 45
45
if not sold, cost is 80-20 = 60
SnowTime Scenarios
Scenario One:
Suppose you make 12
12,000
000 jackets and
demand ends up being 13,000 jackets.
Profit = 125(12,000) - 80(12,000) - 100,000 =
$440,000
Scenario Two:
Suppose you make 12
12,000
000 jackets and
Profit = 125(11
125(11,000)
000) - 80(12,000)
80(12 000) - 100,000
100 000 +
20(1000) = $ 335,000
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Pro
ofit
$300,000
$200 000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
8000
12000
16000
20000
Order Quantity
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Pro
ofit
$300,000
$200 000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
8000
12000
16000
20000
Order Quantity
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Pro
ofit
$300,000
$200 000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
8000
12000
16000
20000
Order Quantity
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
SnowTime:
Important Observations
Tradeoff between ordering enough to meet
demand and ordering too much
Several quantities have the same averag
ge
profit
Average profit does not tell the whole story
story
Question:
Q
ti
9000 and
d 16000 unit
its
lead to about the same average
profit
fit, so whi
hich
h do
d we preffer??
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Probability of Outcomes
80%
60%
Q=9000
40%
Q=16000
20%
10
00
00
30
00
00
50
00
00
0%
-3
00
00
0
-1
00
00
0
Probab
bility
100%
Cost
Supply Contracts
Variable Production Cost = $100,000
Fixed Production Cost = $35
Wholesale Price = $80
20:00
Manufacturer DC
Retail DC
20:00
Stores
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Demand Scenarios
18
00
0
16
00
0
14
00
0
12
00
0
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
80
00
10
00
0
Probabiliity
Demand Scenarios
Sales
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Order Quantity
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Order Quantity
000
Supply Contracts
Variable Production Cost = $100,000
Fixed Production Cost = $35
Wholesale Price = $80
20:00
Manufacturer DC
Retail DC
20:00
Stores
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Retailer Profi
Profit
(Buy Back=$55)
600,000
400,000
300 000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Retaile r Profit
500,000
Order Quantity
Retailer Profi
Profit
(Buy Back=$55)
600,000
$513 800
$513,800
400,000
300 000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Retaile r Profit
500,000
Order Quantity
Manufacturer Profit
(Buy Back=$55)
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Manufacturrer Profit
M
600,000
Production Quantity
Manufacturer Profit
(Buy Back=$55)
500,000
$471,900
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Manufacturrer Profit
M
600,000
Production Quantity
Supply Contracts
Variable Production Cost = $100,000
Fixed Production Cost = $35
Wholesale Price = $80
20:00
Manufacturer DC
Retail DC
20:00
Stores
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
Retailer Profi
Profit
(Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%)
600,000
,
400,000
300,000
200,000
100 000
100,000
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Retailer P
Profit
500,000
Order Quantity
Retailer Profi
Profit
(Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%)
600,000
,
400,000
300,000
200,000
100 000
100,000
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Retailer P
Profit
500,000
$504 325
$504,325
Order Quantity
Manufacturer Profit
(Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%)
600,000
500,000
400,0
000
00
300,000
200,000
100,0
000
00
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Manufacturrer Profit
M
700,000
,
Production Quantity
Manufacturer Profit
(Wholesale Price $70, RS 15%)
600,000
500,000
$481,375
400,0
000
00
300,000
200,000
100,0
000
00
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Manufacturrer Profit
M
700,000
,
Production Quantity
Supply Contracts
Strategy
Sequential Optimization
Buyback
Revenue Sharing
Retailer Manufacturer
470,700
440,000
513,800
471,900
504,325
481,375
Total
910,700
985,700
985,700
Supply Contracts
Variable Production Cost = $100,000
Fixed Production Cost = $35
Wholesale Price = $80
20:00
Manufacturer DC
Retail DC
20:00
Stores
Image by MIT OpenCourseWare.
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Su
upply Cha in Profit
1,200,000
,
,
Production Quantity
$1 014 500
$1,014,500
800,000
600,000
400,000
200 000
200,000
0
60
00
70
00
80
00
90
00
10
00
0
11
00
0
12
00
0
13
00
0
14
00
0
15
00
0
16
00
0
17
00
0
18
00
0
Su
upply Cha in Profit
1,200,000
,
,
Production Quantity
Supply Contracts
Strategy
Sequential Optimization
Buyback
Revenue Sharing
Global Optimization
Retailer Manufacturer
470,700
440,000
513 800
513,800
471 900
471,900
504,325
481,375
Total
910,700
985 700
985,700
985,700
1,014,500
optimization
Buy Back and Revenue Sharing contracts
achi
hieve this
thi objecti
bj tive through
h risk
i k
sharing
$65
and rent for $3
Hence, retailer must rent the tape at least 22 times before
earning profit
Profit =
Pro
ofit
$300,000
$200 000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
8000
12000
16000
20000
Order Quantity
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Initial Inventory
Suppose that one of the jacket designs is a
model produced last year.
Some inventoryy is left from last year
Assume the same demand pattern as before
0
50
15
14
00
12
50
0
00
11
00
95
00
80
00
65
00
200000
100000
0
50
P rofiit
500000
Production Quantityy
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
0
50
15
14
00
12
50
0
00
11
00
95
00
80
00
65
00
200000
100000
0
50
P rofiit
500000
Production Quantityy
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
0
50
15
14
00
12
50
0
00
11
00
95
00
80
00
65
00
200000
100000
0
50
P rofiit
500000
Production Quantityy
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
130000
140000
120000
100000
110000
80000
90000
70000
0
50000
60000
P rofit
400000
Production Quantity
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
(s, S) Policies
For some starting inventory levels, it is better to not
sttartt prod
ducti
tion
If we start, we always produce to the same level
Thus,
h
we use an (s,S)
S) policy.
li
Iff the
h inventory
i
level
l
l is
i
below s, we produce up to S.
s is
i the reorder
eo de point
point, and
nd S is
i the
the order-up-to
o de p to level
le el
The difference between the two levels is driven by
the fixed costs associated with ordering
ordering,
transportation, or manufacturing
Inbound
Distributor
Factoryy
DC
4) Production
Planning
a
g
Order Flow
Product Flow
End User
DC
1) Order
Processing
3) Order
Processing
2) Forecasting
Replenishment
250
200
150
150
Demand 150
(000's) 100
75
125
100
104
61
50
48
53
50
45
O
ct
No
v
De
c
Ja
n
Fe
b
M
ar
Ju
l
A
ug
Se
p
Ju
n
ay
M
Ap
r
M h
Month
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
20
15
10
5
$1
00
,0
00
$1
25
,0
00
$1
50
,0
00
$1
75
,0
00
$2
00
,0
00
$7
5,
00
0
$5
0,
00
0
0
$2
5,
00
0
Frequen
ncy
25
Reminder:
Average = 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
60
distributor
will not stock out during lead time.
Intuitively
Intuitively, how will this effect our policy?
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Inventoory Levvel
Inventory Position
Lead
Time
0
Time
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Notation
Analysis
The reorder point has two components:
To account for average demand during lead time:
LTAVG
To account for deviations from average (we call this safety
stock)
z STD LT
where z is chosen from statistical tables to ensure that the
probability of stockouts during leadtime is 100%-SL.
Example
The distributor has historically observed weekly
demand
d off:
AVG = 44.6 STD = 32.1
Replenishment lead time is 2 weeks,
weeks and desired
service level SL = 97%
Average demand during lead time is:
44.6 2 = 89.2
Safetyy Stock is:
1.88 32.1 2 = 85.3
Reorder point is thus 175, or about 3.9 weeks of
supply at warehouse and in the pipeline
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Base-Stock Policy
Target Inventory
Expected UB
Units
,
Expected LB
r1
r2
Time
r3
Risk Pooling
Consider these two systems:
Warehouse One
Market One
Warehouse Two
Market Two
Supplier
Market One
Supplier
Warehouse
M k t Two
Market
T
Copyright 2002 D. Simchi-Levi
Risk Pooling
For the same service level, which system will
require more inventory? Why?
For the same total inventoryy level , which
answers?
two products
maintain 97% service level
$60 order cost
$.27 weekly holding
g cost
$1.05 transportation cost per unit in decentralized
system, $1.10 in centralized system
1 week lead time
Prod A,
Market 1
Prod A,
Market 2
Prod B,
Market 1
Product B,
B
Market 2
33
45
37
38
55
30
18
58
46
35
41
40
26
48
18
55
STD
CV
Market 1
39.3
13.2
.34
Market 2
38.6
12.0
.31
Market 1
1.125
1.36
1.21
Market 2
1.25
1.58
1.26
STD CV
Market 1
39.3
13.2
.34
65
158
Avg.
%
Inven. Dec
Inven
Dec.
91
Market 2
38.6
12.0
.31
62
154
88
Market 1
Market 2
B
B
1.125 1.36
1.25 1.58
1.21 4
1.26 5
26
27
15
15
Cent.
Cent
A
B
77.9 20.7
2.375 1.9
.27
.81
118 226
6
37
132
20
26%
33%
Risk Pooling:
Important Observations
Centralizing inventory control reduces both
safety stock and average inventory level for
the same service level.
This works best for
Hig
gh coefficient of variation,, which reduces
required safety stock.
Negatively correlated demand. Why?
Safety stock?
Service level?
Overhead?
Lead time?
Transp
portation Costs?
inventory
ownership, to suppliers (31%)
from
1998 to 2000
Overall the increase is from 8.0 turns
per year
pe
yea to o
over
e 13
3 pe
per yea
year o
over
e a five
e
year period ending in year 2000.
Median
Dairy Products
Upper
Quartile
34.4
19.3
Lower
Quartile
9.2
Electronic Component
9.8
5.7
3.7
Electronic Computers
94
9.4
53
5.3
35
3.5
Books: publishing
9.8
2.4
1.3
6.2
3.4
2.3
8.0
5.0
3.8
10.3
6.6
4.4
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