T1

spring 2016 test No.1; 19th April 2016

PROBABILITIES, RV BASICS

name

problem #

1. [ 3 points ] From a batch of n = 20 radios a sample of size 3 is randomly selected for inspection. If there are 6 defective
radios in the batch what is the probability that the sample:
(a) contains only defective radios?


= 20
3 = 60 19


P(all def) = 63 / = 1/57
(b) contains only non-defective radios?


P(all non-def) 14
3 / 0.32
(c) contains one defective and two non-defective radios?




6
14
1 2 / 0.48
2. [ 3 points ] A gnat-killer is effective upon the first use in 80% of cases, i.e. 80 out of hundred gnats are killed.
The remaining gnats, however, become more resistant after every second application of the product the percentage
of killed gnats is halved. So, after the second use the percentage of killed gnats is 40, after the third 20, after the
fourth 10, and so on. What is the probability that a given gnat survives five applications of the gnat killer? What is
the probability that a given gnat survives five applications of the gnat killer if it had already survived the first two?
(a) P = 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.95 = 0.082
(b) P = 0.8 0.9 0.95 = 0.684
3. [ 4 points ] The random variable X, representing the number of cherries in a cherry pudding, has the following probability distribution:
xi
P(X = xi )

4
0.2

5
0.4

6
0.3

7
0.1

(a) Find the mean and the variance 2 of X.

X
=
pi xi = 5.3;
i

(b) Find the mean X and the variance

2 (X) =

pi (xi )2 = 0.81

i
2
X

of 36 cherry puddings.
of the mean X

X = 5.3;

2
2
X
= (X)/36 = 0.81/36 = 0.0225

How big is the probability of selecting one of 36 puddings with the number of cherries being less than 6?
After the proper standardization (from (b)):
P = 0.9082
4. [ 3 points ] The probability that an American industry will locate in Warsaw is 0.7,the probability that it will locate
in Prague is 0.4, and the probability that it will locate in either Warsaw or Prague is 0.8. What is the probability that
the industry will locate in both cities? ([3pt])
P (P rague and W arsaw) = P (P rague or W arsaw) + P (P rague) + P (W arsaw) = . . . = 0.3
5. [ 4 points ] An urn contains 2 nickels ($ 0.05) and 3 dimes ($0.10). (a) List all the elements of the sample space
corresponding to the experiment: 2 coins are selected at random and without replacement. (b) Compute the probability
that the value of the 2 selected coins equals $ 0.10, $0.15, and $ 0.20. (c) Compute the expected value and variance of
this sum of 2 selected coins. Hint: we assume that that we are incapable of recognizing the value (i.e. shape) of the
coin at the moment of the draw.
xi
5
10 15
pi 0.1 0.6 0.3
X
X
E(X) =
pi xi = . . . 2 (X) =
pi [xi E(X)]2 = . . .
i

T1

spring 2016 test No.1; 19th April 2016

6. [ 4 points ] The percentage of alcohol in a certain compound is given by 100X, where X is a random variable with
probability density function given by
f (x) = k(1 x)2 ,
0 < x < 1;
f (x)

otherwise

(a) Find the value of k. (b) Sketch the graph of f (x) for 0 < x < 1. (c) Compute the cumulative distribution function
F (x) and sketch its graph. (d) What is the probability that the percentage of the alcohol is less than 25 percent? More
than 75 percent? (e) Compute the expected value and the median of the distribution.([4pt]
for median, xmed , we have F (xmed ) = 0.5.
integral of f (x) over [0, 1] interval must be 1 hence k = 3;
F (x) = 3x(1 x + 13 x2 ); ; P (X < 0.25) = F (0.25) 0.16; P (X > 0, 75) = 1 F (0.75) = 0.58
R1
E(X) = 0 x 3(1 x)2 dx = . . . = 0.75

median F(median) = 0.5 hence med3 = 0.5 and med = 3 0.5 0.78
7. [ 3 points ] It is known that 40 percent of patients naturally recover from a certain disease. A drug is claimed to cure 80
percent of all patients with the disease. What is the probability that at least 12 recover from a group of 20 if: (a) the
drug is worthless and hence the true recovery rate 40 percent? (b) the drug is really 80 percent effective as claimed?
Hint: use the Bernoulli (binomial) distribution. with p = 0.4 for the worthless drug and p =? for an effective one.
P11
(a) P (N 12) = 1 k=0 Wkn (n = 20; p = 0.4) = . . . tables = . . . 1 0.943 = 0.057 (b) P (N 12) = 1
P11
n
n=0 Wk (n = 20; p = 0.8) = . . . tables = . . . 1 0, 01 = 0, 99
8. [ 4 points ] An elevator has weight capacity 3000 lb (pounds). Assume that the weight of a randomly selected person
follows a normal distribution with = 175 and = 20 (all data expressed in pounds).
We have n persons in the elevator. The total weight is W = W1 + W2 + . . . + Wn . (a) give the formulae for the expected
value E(W ) and variance 2 (W );
E(W ) = E(W1 + W2 + . . . + Wn ) = E(W1 ) + . . . + E(Wn ) = n = n 175
the same for variance:
2 (W ) = 2 (W1 + W2 + . . . + Wn ) = 2 (W1 ) + . . . + 2 (Wn ) = n 2 = n 400
so (W ) =

n20

(b) Calculate the probability that the group of 18 persons will exceed the load limit.


3000 18 175

P (W 3000) = P Z =
1.767 = 0.9616
18 400