Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Comment
Page 1
Equity Research
Europe
Germany
Degussa AG
Chemicals
Robert Clover
(cloverr@ms.com) (020) 7513-6179
Michael Eastwood
(eastwdm@ms.com) (020) 7513-4657
David Phillips (020) 7513-4432
Anja Seyfried (020) 7513-3485
Degussa AG
Price (September 15, 2000)
Price Target
52-Week Range
Degussa-Hls
Price (September 15, 2000)
Price Target
52-Week Range
SKW Trostberg
Price (September 15, 2000)
Price Target
52-Week Range
Hocus Focus!
OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage
N/A
N/A
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2.33
2.29
2.86
3.27
7.29
7.74
7.81
EPS ( )
Cash EPS ( )
6.88
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
480
471
588
672
709
788
947
1,081
13.7
51
4.6
1.7
6.2
3.3
16.6
13.9
65
4.4
1.6
5.6
3.6
16.5
11.2
60
4.1
1.5
4.3
4.0
17.4
9.8
58
4.1
1.4
3.7
4.6
18.2
96
97
98
Data Source: FactSet Research Systems Inc.
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
99
00
Source: FactSet
Company Description
Degussa AG is the new company being formed by
the merger of the E.ON chemical holdings, SKW
Trostberg and Degussa-Hls. Degussa AG should
be among the worlds largest specialty chemicals
companies, with sales of 15 billion on our 2000
estimates and around 80% of its core portfolio in
market-leading positions (based on 1999 pro-forma
sales). The merged company is to be registered in
December 2000, and the new Degussa AG stock
tradeable two to three days following registration,
according to the companies.
6,559
5,534
11,923
40.4
13.2
11.2
1.2
205.6
3,790
35.5
N/A
0.84
6.3
1. Pro-forma 1999
2. Numbers based on Degussa Hls share price and Degussa AG estimates
3. Includes pension provisions
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates.
Page 2
Table of Contents
Summary and Investment Conclusion
Investment Positives and Concerns
Valuation
Definition of Specialty Chemicals
Sector Outlook Slowing Fundamentals
Outlook for Share-Price Performance
The Merger Process
Strategy
Management Board and Incentive Plans
Health & Nutrition
Construction Chemicals
Fine & Industrial Chemicals
Performance Chemicals
Coatings & Advanced Fillers
Specialty Polymers
Disposal Programme
Services and Corporate Centre
Current Trading
Financial Assumptions and Forecasts
3
6
12
22
23
26
28
29
35
37
43
48
54
60
65
69
75
76
78
Page 3
Investment concerns
Restricted free float: Degussa AG will be 64.5%owned by the E.ON group, according to management,
limiting the free float to 35.5%.
Investment positives
Valuation
Page 4
Exhibit 1A
1
Product
Application
methionine
lecithin
animal nutrition
food emulsifiers and
health-promoting additives
thickeners, gelling agents for
food & confectionery products
2-3
hydrogen peroxide
Performance Chemicals
reactive silicones
surfactants and derivatives
superabsorbers
organic silicones
radiation-cured coatings
fabric softeners, shampoos, gels
hygienic products, diapers
polyurethane foaming agents,
ink & lacquer additives, cosmetics
colorants (pigments)
polyester resins
fumed silicas
precipitated silicas
organic silanes
matting agents
carbon black
polyurethane cross-linkers
Specialty Polymers
methacrylates
polyamide 12
special monomers
pharmaceutical polymers
1-2
1-2
2
1
1
1
1-2
1
1
1
1
1-2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Page 5
Exhibit 1B
Degussa AG: Planned Core Business Structure (1999 Profound Sales Split)1
Degussa AG
8.7 bn sales (incl. 0.6 bn from others)
Health &
Nutrition
0.8 bn
Construction
Chemicals
1.5 bn
Performance
Chemicals
1.0 bn
Coatings &
Advanced Fillers
2.2bn
Specialty
Polymers
1.2 bn
Feed Additives
0.4bn
Germany
0.4 bn
Fine Chemicals
0.7 bn
Superabsorbents
0.4 bn
Coatings &
Colorants
0.7 bn
Methacrylates
0.3 bn
Texturant Systems
0.2 bn
Europe
0.4 bn
Bleaching &
Water Chemicals
0.4 bn
Care Specialties
0.4 bn
Aerosil &
Silanes
0.5 bn
Specialty
Acrylates
0.4 bn
Bio-Actives
0.1 bn
Americas
0.5 bn
C4 Chemicals
0.2 bn
Oligomers/
Silicones
0.2 bn
Flavors &
Fruit Systems
0.2 bn
Asia/Pacific
0.3 bn
Ex Degussa-Huls
Advanced Fillers
& Pigments
1.0 bn
Plexiglas
0.3 bn
High Performance
Polymers
0.2 bn
Ex SKW
Source: Degussa AG
Page 6
Page 7
We believe that the planned process of restructuring and noncore portfolio disposals will provide a constant stream of
positive news flow, which, combined with the attendant
increase in profitability that we expect, should help to drive
share-price performance.
We believe that the eventual independent ownership of
Degussa AG is a further possible outcome of the Viag/Veba
merger, although the company has not stated this explicitly.
The removal of liquidity constraints and majority ownership
would be a very share-price-friendly event.
A clear path to focusing the product portfolio is presented
by the merger, in our view. We believe the planned
accretive disposals of the numerous non-core businesses
should lead to share-price appreciation through the release of
valuation discounts implicit in the share price as a result of
the markets perceived diversity of the combined portfolios.
Degussa AG has said it expects to exit businesses that in
1999 had sales totalling ELOOLRQRUZHOORYHURQHWKLUGRI
the company.
Valuation opportunity. We believe that the creation of the
new company provides an ideal value entry point to a strong
restructuring and growth story. We think our current implied
valuations of Degussa-Hls and SKW Trostberg are modest.
We expect earnings growth from restructuring to be
supported also by organic growth. However, critically, we
expect that there will be enough near-term earnings growth
Degussa AG September 19, 2000
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.
Page 8
Page 9
Exhibit 3
7,593
7,000
5,888
6,000
5,314
5,000
4,639
4,184
4,000
4,082
3,716
Avg.
3,001
3,000
2,095
2,000
1,657
1,340
1,295
1,231
1,231
1,118
1,000
He
rc
ul
es
Tr
os
tb
er
g
So
lu
tia
C
yt
ec
La
po
rt
e
SK
W
za
Lo
n
t
ia
n
IC
us
I
sa
-H
ul
s
C
ib
a
SC
De
g
A
G
sa
C
la
r
&
us
D
eg
hm
H
en
ke
l
Ha
as
Ro
di
a
ke
s
La
G
re
at
R
ho
Page 10
Note: Market capitalisations for ICI and Henkel are adjusted to reflect only the
specialty part of their businesses. Source: FactSet, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
Research
Page 11
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
18.00
25.0
16.00
14.00
20.0
12.00
Avg.
Avg.
10.00
15.0
8.00
6.00
10.0
4.00
2.00
5.0
IC
I
Hu
ls
A
G
us
s
De
g
ke
l
us
sa
H
en
SK
W
SC
nt
di
a
Rh
o
Ci
ba
Cl
ar
ia
rte
po
za
La
D
eg
Note: EBIT for ICI and Henkel is adjusted to reflect only the specialty part of
their businesses.
Source: I/B/E/S and FactSet Estimates for Lonza, SKW and Degussa Hls, and
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
0.0
Lo
n
Hu
ls
AG
us
s
De
g
us
sa
De
g
SK
W
ke
l
He
n
di
a
Rh
o
ib
a
SC
nt
C
la
ria
C
IC
I
za
Lo
n
La
po
rt
e
0.00
Source: I/B/E/S and FactSet Estimates for Lonza, SKW and Degussa Hls, and
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Page 12
Valuation
We have looked at the valuation of Degussa AG in a
number of different ways, as follows.
1.
2.
3.
4.
In valuing Degussa AG on a relative basis, we have examined four factors: which region to choose comparables
from; which comparable companies to look at; which
valuation metric to use; and what discount or premium
applies to the rest of the sector. The net result of these
approaches is our 12-month share-price target of IRU
Degussa AG, IRU'HJXVVD+OVDQG IRU6.:
Trostberg.
Region
18,000
16,000
30.0
14,000
12,000
25.0
10,000
20.0
8,000
6,000
Avg.
Avg.
15.0
4,000
10.0
2,000
5.0
s
a
IC
H
ul
G
A
gu
ss
gu
ia
ke
De
ss
H
en
De
SK
SC
ho
d
R
ba
Ci
ut
ia
ar
ia
n
So
l
Cl
La
po
rte
es
&
aa
es
ak
Ro
hm
cu
l
tL
re
a
Lo
nz
a
Source: I/B/E/S and FactSet Estimates for Lonza, SKW and Degussa-Hls, and
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
0.0
He
r
G
A
H
a
sa
us
s
eg
us
eg
ul
s
IC
I
H
R
oh enk
el
m
&
H
aa
s
R
ho
d
C ia
la
r ia
n
C
ib t
a
SC
SK
W
So
lu
ti
H
er a
c
G
re ule
s
at
La
ke
s
C
yt
e
La c
po
rt
e
Lo
nz
a
Source: I/B/E/S and FactSet Estimates for Lonza, SKW and Degussa Hls, and
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Page 13
Valuation metrics
Comparable companies
40
40
40
37
35
35
35
34
34
32
30
30
28
28
28
28
Ire
25
20
15
10
5
0
Ger
Fra
Bel
Ita
NL
Ownership structure.
Stock liquidity.
Page 14
Page 15
Page 16
Exhibit 9
1 6 .0 0
1 4 .0 0
1 2 .0 0
EV/EBITDA
1 0 .0 0
8 .0 0
6 .0 0
4 .0 0
2 .0 0
SK W T R O S TB ER G AG N PV
6/2000
4/2000
2/2000
12/1999
8/1999
10/1999
6/1999
4/1999
2/1999
12/1998
10/1998
8/1998
6/1998
4/1998
2/1998
12/1997
8/1997
10/1997
6/1997
4/1997
2/1997
12/1996
8/1996
10/1996
6/1996
4/1996
2/1996
12/1995
10/1995
8/1995
6/1995
4/1995
2/1995
12/1994
0 .0 0
D EG US SA -H U LS A G O RD N PV
Source: FactSet
Exhibit 10
P/CE
EV/EBIT
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
2000E
2001E
2000E
2001E
2000E
2001E
2000E
2001E
2000E
2001E
European
Ciba SC
ICI
Laporte
Henkel
Rhodia
Degussa1
Clariant
Average
16.36
8.92
8.40
22.41
10.39
13.92
16.86
14.45
13.19
7.77
7.53
18.93
8.11
11.15
15.35
12.27
7.53
5.21
5.57
8.66
3.44
4.38
7.01
6.63
6.95
4.74
5.10
7.79
3.20
4.12
6.63
6.13
11.08
7.84
7.85
12.33
9.94
10.83
13.49
10.95
9.43
7.32
7.10
10.61
7.04
7.96
11.13
9.10
7.22
6.57
6.01
7.07
4.81
5.60
7.30
6.85
6.45
6.26
5.48
6.26
4.22
4.32
6.17
5.99
1.13
0.73
1.33
0.94
0.73
0.68
1.39
1.16
1.12
0.74
1.23
0.87
0.73
0.60
1.21
1.08
American
Crompton
Ecolab
Ethyl
Ferro
Great Lakes
Lubrizol
PolyOne
Millipore
3M
Praxair
Schulman, A.
Sigma-Aldrich
Average
8.86
24.20
8.14
9.98
12.13
9.19
10.63
24.07
17.99
12.58
8.41
15.89
13.51
8.45
21.29
5.95
8.99
10.84
8.42
7.76
19.65
16.23
11.44
7.61
14.26
11.74
3.47
13.79
1.99
6.01
12.44
4.86
4.17
17.31
11.87
6.41
5.48
10.27
8.17
3.38
12.60
1.83
5.58
12.52
4.59
3.33
14.80
10.80
5.65
5.12
9.83
7.50
8.17
14.65
8.96
6.90
7.86
7.19
8.79
18.01
11.49
10.49
5.24
10.18
9.83
7.86
13.20
8.59
6.50
7.41
6.50
7.27
14.98
10.37
9.80
4.86
10.07
8.95
5.14
10.23
4.66
5.15
5.58
4.64
5.40
14.32
8.79
6.84
4.08
7.74
6.88
5.01
9.44
4.56
4.93
5.28
4.34
4.52
12.24
7.98
6.18
3.83
7.63
6.33
0.81
2.23
0.74
0.70
1.26
0.78
0.37
3.23
2.14
1.83
0.38
2.08
1.38
0.80
2.04
0.73
0.69
1.17
0.77
0.36
2.81
1.99
1.74
0.37
1.94
1.28
Overall Average
13.88
11.95
7.56
6.95
10.28
9.01
6.87
6.19
1.29
1.20
Page 17
Exhibit 11
Date
Announced
Target
16-Aug-99
Industrial Gases
AGA
Average
18-Dec-97
23-Feb-98
26-May-98
6-Jul-98
5-Aug-98
11-Aug-99
24-Jan-00
21-Mar-00
21-Jan-98
18-Mar-98
30-Mar-98
17-Sep-98
16-Apr-99
11-May-99
14-Dec-99
Specialty Chemicals
Allied Colloids
Daesung Lysine Unit
Acheson
Gustafson Seed Treatment
Albright & Wilson
Zeneca Specialty
Chemicals
Ciba Polymers
Average
Coatings
20-Apr-98
Courtaulds
29-Oct-98
Herberts
28-Apr-99 ICI Auto and Industrial Coatings
2-Jun-99
PRC DeSoto
1-Jul-00
Lilly Industries
24-Aug-00
Mason Coatings
Average
Ind./Commodity Chemicals
10-Apr-99
Acrylics plant
12-May-98
Brunner Mond Soda Ash
15-Apr-99 ICI various industrial chemicals
9-Aug-99
Acordis
30-Sep-99
ICI Fluoropolymers
4-Oct-99
ICI Acrylics
8-Oct-99
Neste
16-Nov-99
Lyondell Polyols and PO
7-Dec-99
Vestolit
8-Mar-00
Vinnolit
Average
Implied
Aggregate Value (mn)
Aggregate Value /
Acquirer
Curr.
Local
(US$)
Local
(US$)
Sales
EBITDA
EBIT
Linde
SKr
30,681
3,700
34,543
4,166
2.3
2.3
9.7
9.7
20.0
20.0
Yule Catto
DSM
BTP
BTP
Laporte
Akzo Nobel
Clariant
BASF
US$
248
1,225
55
100
601
665
1,038
3,800
412
1,439
90
165
984
709
1,713
3,800
292
1,316
55
140
638
665
1,139
3,900
485
1,545
90
231
1,044
709
1,879
3,900
1.8
1.3
2.1
3.3
2.5
1.5
2.9
2.3
2.2
10.2
9.1
N/AV
N/AV
13.9
N/AV
13.3
N/AV
11.6
14.9
15.4
10.4
73.5
17.7
11.0
18.5
15.6
22.1
Ciba
BASF
ICI
Bayer
Rhodia
Cinven/
Investcorp
MGPE
US$
US$
US$
1,420
600
695
180
525
2,313
600
695
180
848
1,570
600
560
180
700
2,557
600
560
180
1,130
3.1
2.4
3.0
1.8
0.9
13.6
N/AV
N/AV
N/AV
7.6
19.1
9.8
12.2
N/AV
11.2
SFr
1,300
1,600
2,108
1,010
1,300
1,600
2,108
1,010
1.9
0.9
2.0
9.4
8.1
9.7
14.4
11.9
13.1
Akzo Nobel
DuPont
PPG
PPG
Valspar
Akzo Nobel
1,832
1,600
400
490
762
N/AV
3,074
1,879
640
513
762
N/AV
2,232
1,600
400
490
975
N/AV
3,746
1,879
640
513
975
N/AV
1.1
1.1
1.5
2.3
1.0
1.5
1.4
9.5
7.5
N/AV
N/AV
N/AV
8.0
8.3
14.9
14.8
25.6
N/AV
N/AV
N/AV
18.4
5,268
145
1,750
825
136
505
505
2,450
140
236
2,822
883
136
540
537
2,450
5,268
193
1,750
825
136
505
505
2,450
140
315
2,822
883
136
540
537
2,450
0.6
1.3
0.9
0.4
1.2
1.0
0.6
3.1
N/AV
N/AV
N/AV
4.2
N/AV
9.4
N/AV
13.6
4.4
9.3
14.0
12.9
N/AV
18.7
27.0
24.5
150
N/AV
153
N/AV
150
N/AV
153
N/AV
0.5
N/AV
1.1
N/AV
N/AV
9.0
N/AV
N/AV
15.8
1.7
9.9
17.7
US$
US$
Ineos
BFr
CVC
Huntsman
CVC
Asahi
US$
Charterhouse
Industri Kap
Bayer
US$
Candover/
George Harris
Advent Intl Corp
M&A Average
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Page 18
Exhibit 12
EBITDA
2001E
75.5
42.2
11.1
28.9
157.8
85.5
47.4
11.9
31.9
176.8
94.2
52.0
13.1
33.9
193.2
6.7
7.2
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.0
6.4
6.6
6.4
6.2
5.4
5.8
6.0
5.8
5.6
505
303
82
208
1,098
512
305
79
205
1,101
511
303
78
198
1,090
Construction Chemicals
Germany
Europe
Americas
Asia/Pacific
Total
73.5
51.0
81.7
42.8
249.0
77.9
53.7
86.4
45.1
263.1
81.9
56.2
90.7
47.2
276.1
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.2
467
324
519
272
1,582
443
305
492
257
1,497
422
290
468
244
1,423
131.2
87.6
51.8
270.6
152.3
95.8
56.5
304.7
166.6
103.6
61.9
332.2
6.7
6.0
6.0
6.3
6.0
5.4
5.4
5.7
5.4
4.9
4.9
5.2
877
527
312
1,716
912
517
304
1,733
904
506
302
1,712
Performance Chemicals
Superabsorbents
Care Specialties
Oligomers/Silicones
Total
52.1
104.1
57.2
213.3
66.9
114.4
62.0
243.3
75.1
121.9
65.8
262.8
7.0
7.2
7.7
7.3
6.3
6.4
6.9
6.5
5.7
5.8
6.2
5.9
366
748
439
1,553
420
737
427
1,584
428
711
410
1,549
166.2
114.0
199.9
480.1
182.7
124.6
215.0
522.3
191.9
131.6
233.8
557.3
6.4
6.4
6.0
6.2
5.7
5.7
5.4
5.6
5.2
5.2
4.9
5.0
1,056
724
1,203
2,983
1,039
709
1,159
2,907
989
678
1,142
2,809
Specialty Polymers
Methacrylics
Specialty Acrylates
Plexiglas
Engineering Plastics
Total
51.3
49.2
107.1
55.5
263.1
56.8
55.6
120.3
60.0
292.7
64.9
61.2
131.5
63.9
321.6
5.3
6.2
6.2
6.4
6.1
4.8
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.4
4.3
5.0
5.0
5.2
4.9
274
305
663
352
1,594
272
308
666
341
1,588
282
307
660
330
1,579
1,802.9
374.4
2,177.3
1,943.2
192.9
2,136.1
6.4
6.0
6.3
5.8
5.4
5.7
5.2
4.9
5.2
10,526
2,899
13,426
10,409
2,018
12,427
10,163
942
11,106
64.0
2,241.3
64.8
2,200.8
6.2
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.1
13,426
13,426
1,343
12,083
1,208
10,875
2,977
2,387
92
5,549
27.0
12,427
12,427
1,243
11,184
1,118
10,066
321
2,387
92
7,389
35.9
11,106
11,106
1,111
9,995
1,000
8,996
(1,285)
2,387
92
7,912
38.5
PLOOLRQ
EBITDA
2002E
Implied EV
2002E
Page 19
Exhibit 13
1999
PLOOLRQ
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
2006E
2007E
1,152.8
(432.0)
990.9
(952.2)
(220.6)
1,183.2
(443.4)
928.6
(785.3)
134.6
1,244.3
(466.3)
918.1
(776.0)
31.9
1,322.2
(495.5)
933.7
(817.5)
(67.8)
1,402.8
(525.7)
949.6
(867.9)
(69.6)
1,481.1
(553.6)
966.3
(915.6)
(150.0)
1,556.1
(580.0)
983.2
(956.8)
(140.0)
(12.4)
538.9
1,017.7
952.0
875.1
889.3
828.2
862.4
894.9
930.4
967.5
6.5
0.94
7.5
0.87
7.8
0.81
8.1
0.75
8.1
0.69
8.1
0.64
8.1
0.59
8.1
0.55
8.1
0.51
8.1
0.47
8.1
0.44
(11.7)
470.8
824.8
713.9
607.1
570.8
491.8
473.8
454.8
437.5
420.9
Adjusted EBIT
945.2 1,056.2
Cash Tax
(299.4) (419.1)
Depreciation & Amortisation
934.0 1,017.2
Adjusted Capital Expenditure (1,043.8) (1,077.6)
Other Changes in Cash1
(365.2) (589.2)
Operating Free Cash Flow
170.7
5,454.5
Terminal Value
(Long-Term Growth of 3%)
7,883.8
2009E
2010E
1,751.9
(649.5)
1,020.5
(1,045.4)
(110.0)
13,338.3
Net Debt
Market Value (EV (Net Debt)
Market Value per Share (
2008E
1,626.8 1,692.4
(604.8) (627.5)
997.9 1,010.4
(995.1) (1,024.9)
(130.0) (120.0)
5,363.1
7,975.2
38.8
1. Other changes in cash include changes in working capital, provisions and related charges
2. WACC is based on cost of debt of 7-7.5% and cost of equity of 8-8.5%
3. 2000E net debt includes pension liabilities. Financial net debt alone for 2000 will be PLOOLRQRQRXUHVWLPDWHV
Note: Framed forecast years are full Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research forecasts. The additional five years are generated from a linear decline to our assumed longterm growth rate of 3%
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
From our various approaches above, we have derived a 12month target price for Degussa AG of SHUVKDUH2QRXU
forecasts, this represents EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.2 for
2000 and 4.9 for 2001. These valuations are at discounts to
the sector, on our estimates, but we believe the implied 18%
upside from current levels (via the existing Degussa-Hls and
SKW) is a conservative estimate of the potential inherent in
this particular case.
Page 20
Exhibit 14
Exhibit 15
5,933.7
38.0
31.9
6.1
19.1
1,879.9
8.6
7.1
1.6
21.9
PQXVLQJVSOLW
Exhibit 16
Exhibit 17
800
0.17
700
0.16
200
600
0.15
190
500
0.14
400
180
0.13
300
170
200
0.12
100
160
0.11
0
150
J
F M A M J
J
A S O N D J
SPECIALTY CHEMICALS - PRICE INDEX
X%SPEC/MSEROP$(R.H.SCALE)
Source: DATASTREAM
Source: FactSet
0.10
F
Source: Datastream
Page 21
Exhibit 18
Exhibit 19
9.0
8.0
7.5
8.1
7.0
7.8
8.0
7.0
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.2
6.5
7.1
7.0
6.4
6.2
6.7
6.6
Avg.
6.2
6.2
6.1
6.0
6.0
6.0
Avg.
5.4
5.3
5.6
5.3
5.0
4.6
4.8
5.0
4.3
4.2
4.0
4.0
3.3
di
a
ho
R
sa
gu
s
Exhibit 20
Exhibit 21
25.0
22.4
D
SM
AG
A
De
AS
F
te
La
Li
nd
po
r
O
C
B
nk
e
He
Cl
a
ria
nt
IC
I
SC
a
C
ib
er
A
A
kz
o
Ai
rL
ay
id
e
N
ob
iq
u
di
a
D
SM
ho
R
A
G
BA
SF
AG
te
sa
eg
us
IC
I
La
po
r
O
C
B
a
SC
ye
rA
G
He
nk
el
Ba
C
ib
C
la
Li
nd
N
ob
iq
u
A
kz
o
Ai
rL
ria
nt
2.0
el
2.0
id
e
3.0
el
3.3
3.0
18.9
17.6
18.0
16.8
20.2
19.4
20.0
15.4
16.0
15.3
17.9
16.9
14.0
16.4
14.6
15.0
13.9
Avg.
13.3
13.2
13.0
Avg.
12.0
11.2
11.2
10.8
13.0
12.0
10.3
10.0
10.4
10.0
8.3
8.9
8.8
7.8
8.0
8.4
6.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
Source: I/B/E/S estimates for Degussa Hls, DSM and SKW, and Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter Research Estimates. Degussa AG is artificial, based on current
Degussa-Hls price
el
No
b
EV
C
kz
o
A
AG
A
SF
SK
W
B
sa
eg
us
De
gu
ss
Hu
ls
A
G
O
C
B
SC
Ci
ba
nt
G
A
la
ria
er
ay
B
id
e
e
ir
L
iq
u
Li
nd
en
H
en
ke
l
ke
l
0.0
Li
ir nde
Li
qu
id
B
ay e
er
A
Cl G
ar
ia
Ci nt
ba
SC
De
B
gu OC
ss
a
A
B
G
A
D
eg S F
us
A
sa G
H
ul
s
SK
W
Rh
od
ia
Ak
zo ICI
N
ob
L a el
po
r te
D
SM
0.0
Source: I/B/E/S estimates for Degussa-Hls, DSM and SKW, and Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter Research Estimates. Degussa AG is artificial, based on current
Degussa-Hls price
Page 22
High-margin, low-volume chemicals used for incorporation in other products and processes, and sold for the
effects they produce rather than for their chemical
composition.
Danger of misinterpretation
Page 23
Exhibit 22
1997
1998
1999
2000E
2001E
Western Europe
EMU
UK
France
Germany
Italy
US
Asia ex-Japan
Japan
Latin America
OECD
World
2.5
2.5
3.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
4.2
6.2
1.6
5.6
3.2
4.3
2.7
2.8
2.2
3.4
2.2
1.3
4.4
2.2
-2.5
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.9
1.5
1.4
4.2
6.4
0.2
0.1
2.9
3.6
3.3
3.5
2.9
3.8
2.6
2.7
5.4
7.3
1.1
4.1
3.9
4.9
2.9
3.0
2.6
2.8
3.1
2.4
3.6
6.9
-0.7
4.5
2.7
4.1
from first-quarter levels, reflecting less favourable year-onyear comparisons. We are expecting a continuation of this
trend as comparisons become more difficult through the year.
Volumes and pricing strong but slowing. Volumes
remained strong through the second quarter, although it
seems that the first quarter was the peak for volume growth.
Pricing also improved fairly strongly, but by different
degrees across the industry. As in the first quarter, pricing
trends were strongest for those companies with exposure to
basic chemicals (such as BASF and DSM) and upstream
specialty chemicals (such as Rhodia). There has also been
some evidence of improved pricing for the more downstream
specialty chemicals companies (such as Ciba, Clariant and
ICI), although we believe pressures from the customer side
are unlikely to diminish.
Currency effects are favourable currently, although recent
trends imply that, on a translation/transaction basis, the
second/third quarter is likely to have been the peak for higher
US-dollar earnings. If the euro trends away from its recent
weakness, as we expect, we believe that export business with
the US is likely to become less lucrative as the second half
progresses.
Input costs (raw materials and energy) are still high and
look likely to remain so. We expect companies to continue
to find it difficult to pass these increases on to customers
through product pricing alone. Margin erosion is likely in the
more industrially exposed specialties and certain polymer
chains. In the current environment of slowing demand and
excess capacity, the sustained high pricing levels of oil, in
particular, are likely to emphasise this adverse issue. It is
hard to anticipate the extent to which price rises would be
needed to make up for higher raw material costs, but if oil
prices move up from current levels, there is likely to be
downward pressure on forecasts across the sector. This
situation has been highlighted recently by half of the profit
warnings from the US (including US major DuPont), which
have affected the chemical sector worldwide share prices.
Overall, therefore, the environment looks to us to be
reasonably benign for Degussa AG, although growth rates
and increases in profitability across the industry look likely to
moderate. Most company outlook statements regarding
trading fundamentals moving into the second half of 2000
suggest to us that our assumptions are well supported. High
raw material prices and a diminishing ability to pass these on
to customers, along with slowing demand, may lead to
margin corrosion.
Degussa AG September 19, 2000
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.
Page 24
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
8/2000
7/2000
6/2000
5/2000
4/2000
3/2000
2/2000
1/2000
12/1999
11/1999
10/1999
9/1999
8/1999
75
7/1999
Exhibit 23
6/1999
5/1999
Page 25
Exhibit 25
8/9/00
0.95
11/9/00
10
3.50
3.00
0.90
9
2.50
0.85
0.80
2.00
1.50
0.75
0.70
0.65
6
1.00
0.60
0.55
4
0.50
0.45
3
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
CHEMSER/MSEROP$
EURO BENCHMARK BOND (SYNTHETIC) - RED. YIELD(R.H.SCALE)
Source: DATASTREAM
Source: Datastream
0.50
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
CHEMSER/MSEROP$
MSTELEL/MSEROP$
MSELECL/MSEROP$
Source: DATASTREAM
Source: Datastream
Page 26
Average Quarterly Exchange Rates: Currency Comparatives May Get Tougher, 1Q 1999-4Q 2000E
Q1
Euro/US$
Euro/Yen
US$/Yen
Change
Q2
Change
Q3
Change
Q4
Change
1999
2000
(%)
1999
2000
(%)
1999
2000E
(%)
1999
2000E
(%)
1.12
132.80
113.45
1.03
102.99
101.60
-8.4
-22.4
-10.4
1.08
129.23
120.55
0.96
100.20
104.86
-11.4
-22.5
-13.0
1.02
123.82
120.82
0.90
95.00
105.0
-12.0
-23.3
-13.1
1.07
112.43
105.13
0.95
97.00
102.0
-11.4
-13.7
- 3.0
Exhibit 27
European Chemicals: Price and Volume Trends vs. European GDP Growth, 1997-2002E
14%
5%
12%
10%
4%
8%
6%
3%
4%
2%
2%
02
E
20
01
E
20
00
E
20
00
1
Q
99
99
3
Q
99
99
1
Q
98
98
3
Q
98
98
1
Q
97
97
Q
97
2
Q
-2 %
97
0%
1%
-4 %
-6 %
-8 %
0%
E u r o la n d G D P G r o w th (R H A x is )
P r ic e T r e n d s (L H A x is )
V o lu m e tr e n d s (L H A x is )
Page 27
Exhibit 28
1.50
35.0
1.40
30.0
1.30
1.20
25.0
1.10
20.0
1.00
0.90
15.0
0.80
10.0
0.70
0.60
5.0
0.50
Jan-00
Jan-99
Jan-98
Jan-97
Jan-96
Jan-95
Jan-94
Jan-93
Jan-92
Jan-91
Jan-90
Jan-89
Jan-88
Jan-87
Jan-86
Jan-85
Jan-84
Jan-83
Jan-82
Jan-81
Jan-80
Jan-79
Jan-78
Jan-77
Jan-76
Jan-75
Jan-74
0.40
Jan-73
0.0
Page 28
Exhibit 30
Date
Announcement / Events
free float
35.3%
free float
35.5%
Degussa Huls
64.7%
DEGUSSA
(NEW CO)
E.ON
64.0%
SKW Trostberg
E.ON
64.5%
free float
36.0%
Page 29
Strategy
The new Degussa lean and decentralised
s p ee d
Focus
G ro w th
s tro n g o rg an ic
g ro w th
v alu e
en h an c in g
ac q u isitio n s
ex it n o n c o re
C hang e
c o n ce n tra tio n
o n s p ec ia lty
c h em ic als
s p e ed
p ee ed
ed
ss p
R e s tr u c t u r in g
d ec en tral an d m ark e t o rie n ta te d
o rg a n iz atio n
im p ro v ed p erfo rm an ce
Page 30
Page 31
Exhibit 32
Construction Chemicals
Competitive Advantages
Page 32
Performance Chemicals
Exhibit 35
This division will comprise a collection of five highperformance polymer businesses based on methacrylate and
C12 chemistry Methacrylics, Specialty Acrylics,
Plexiglas, Engineering Plastics and an existing joint venture
with Bayer in Polmer Latex. With the exception of the joint
venture, the businesses came mostly from Rhm, and partly
from Creanova.
Methacrylics will provide monomers for specialty acrylates.
This division contains some commodity products, and
management has said that the investment focus in this
division will be on specialty low-volume performance grades
of acrylates and nylon 12. There is little scope for significant
acquisitions in this area, in our view, although there does
appear to be scope for one or two small bolt-on acquisitions.
Over the next few years, managements stated aim is for the
new Degussa to systematically divest operations that do not
form part of its core business. Operations at Degussa-Hls
earmarked by the company for disposal comprise the
precious metals activities, which were transferred to the
subsidiary dmc2 on January 1, 2000, ASTA Medica AG, the
Dental division, Phenolchemie and Degussa Bank.
Divestments on the SKW Trostberg side are to comprise
SKW Piesteritz and the gelatin, salt, metal chemicals and
industrial chemicals operations, according to management.
In total, the proposed divestments accounted for sales of over
ELOOLRQLQH[FOXGLQJWKHSUHFLRXVPHWDOVWUDGLQJ
operations at dmc2).
Since the companies involved are mostly successful in their
market segments, the executive board of the new Degussa
has indicated that it will take whatever time it needs to
implement the divestiture plans. Our discussions with
management, however, indicated that the disposal plan will
be mainly completed within one year, and that it appreciates
that speed is of the essence. We believe that managements
public statements reflect its desire not to be pigeon-holed to a
specific date or time period for the divestment plans. The
proceeds are expected to be used to strengthen the new group
s specialty chemicals operations.
M&A strategy
E.ON stated at the time of the merger of Viag and Veba that
it expected Degussa AG to be making acquisitions of
billion of specialty chemicals turnover and to grow to a total
sales size of somewhere in the region of ELOOLRQE\
2004.
While acquisitions remain on the agenda for Degussa, we do
not expect them to be of the magnitude suggested by E.ON.
We found the management of the new Degussa to be a little
wary of establishing an exact target for its proposed
acquisitions. We believe that E.ONs original estimate may
be on the high side of Degussas expectations.
The strong sense that we got from our discussions with
management was that growth would be achieved through
both internal and external means. Degussa sees specialty
chemicals, as we do, as an industry in transition, and views
consolidation as a fact of life. The new group has said it is
keen to be a leading participant in the expected consolidation
process, and envisages that the leading specialty chemicals
Page 33
ELOOLRQLQVDOHV
Page 34
EBITDA Margin
Exceeding Cost of Capital
Dividend Policy Payout1 (%)
20
2 % points
40-50
Exhibit 39
Target
PLOOLRQSHUDQQXP
Timing
2 years
Objectives (1) Overlapping businesses
Care Specialties and Fine
Chemicals ( PLOOLRQ
(2) Overlapping admin.
functions
Tools
benchmark-based: corp.
and business units take
individual action
Restructuring
PLOOLRQSHUDQQXP
3 years
(1) Restructuring business
organisation
(2) Downsizing of required
services
(3) Business process
re-engineering
best@chem
Exhibit 40
Page 35
Divisional control
Exhibit 41
Exhibit 42
Corporate Centre
Chairman
CFO
Corpor. Development
Human Resources
H-J Wagner
Dr. A Oberholz
Dr. T Schoeneberg
Board Office
Controlling
Corporate Governance
Finance
Corporate Development
Health, Safety,
Environment, Quality
Corporate Audit
Corporate Auditing
Innovation Management
Integration
Corporate Taxes
Synergy Management
Executive Resources
IT Strategy
Chairman
&
CEO
CFO
Corporate
Development
Human
Resources
U-H Felcht
H-J Wagner
A Oberholz
T Schoeneberg
Construction
Chemicals
Care Chemicals
Coatings &
Rubber Ingred.
Specialty
Polymers
Trostberg
Trostberg
Marl
Marl
Frankfurt
Frankfurt
T Erb
J Rter
H-J Kollmeier
C Voigt
M Spindler
Executive Vice
Presidents
M Witzel
Corp. Communications
Investor Relations
Page 36
Top 300
Executives
Tool
Benchmark
Base Salary
Market analysis
Market conditions
Short-term
incentive
Target agreement
steering
Individual performance
Business development
Long-term
incentive
Stock options
(phantom shares)
Share Performance
Page 37
Summary
1. Pro-forma
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Exhibit 45
Exhibit 46
PLOOLRQ
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
806
73
950
106
1,015
122
1,067
137
1,124
149
Sales
EBIT
Flavours
Feed Additives
46%
Texturant Systems
28%
Bio Actives
7%
Feed Additives
44%
Texturant Systems
28%
Page 38
Exhibit 47
Exhibit 48
Company/Division
Acquisitions
SBI Sanofi Bio-Industries
Bunge Foods, US
Lucas Meyer Group, Germany
Alex Fries, US
Alfrebo, US
Segment
Year
1995
1998
1999
1999
1999
Food Processing
Health & Functional Food
Animal Health/Nutrition
Technical Application
Cosmetics
Pharma
Total
(DM million)
(%)
90
40
12
8
5
5
160
56
25
8
5
3
3
100
1998
1998
Investments (selective)
DM 15 Million Fermenter at Xanthan gum unit, France
Flavours & Fruit Systems: About DM 20 Million in Projects
1999
1999
Page 39
The BioActives business has only been around since the start
of this year, having been formed at the start of 2000 from part
of the Cultures & Enzymes business. The unit makes food
ingredients that are not functional (such as thickeners and
stabilisers), but are used for their nutritional benefits, such as
cultures, enzymes, phospholipids and amino-acid derivatives.
Cultures and enzymes are used for the production of dairy
products and cheeses, in starch and meat processing and in
breweries. In 1998, SKW implemented a new market
Page 40
Exhibit 50
Exhibit 49
Fine
Chemicals
Salt Products
Gelatin and
Specialties
Texturant Systems
IPDA
IPDI
ACH
MMA
H2O2
NaCN
CYC
BioActives
Aerosil
H2
Methionine
MMP
Embrionic
Growth
Mature
Decline
Note: The Gelatin & Specialties and Salt businesses are now non core, according
to management
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Silane
Acrolein Mercaptane
Page 41
Exhibit 51
Exhibit 52
Total Sales
Total Growth
(US$ million)
(%)
Food Supplements
Miscellaneous Supplements
Vitamins and Minerals
Supplements, Powders/Sports Nutrition
Herbal Formulas
Herbal Singles and Bulk
Homeopathic Remedies
Total
484.1
929.5
1,750.6
229.7
365.5
699.3
96.3
4,554.4
15
17
7
10
17
0
6
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
North America (33%)
Europe (30%)
Supplements
Japan (14%)
Food
Page 42
Exhibit 53
Product Lines
Growth1
Margin2
Markets
Feed Additives
(methionine, lysine, threonine)
Amino acids
average
high
Alginates
Biopolymers
Blends
Carrageenanes
Compound systems
Galactomannans
Pectins
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
high
Flavours
Fruit systems
CO2 extraction
high
high
high
high
high
high
Cultures
Enzymes
EMDI
average
average
average
average
average
average
Texturant Systems
BioActives
1. low = GDP growth minus 1-2%; average = GDP growth; high = GDP growth +.
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Exhibit 54
No. 1
No. 2
No. 3
No. 4
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
Page 43
Construction Chemicals
ELOOLRQLQDQGVKRXOGJURZDWDURXQGSHU\HDU
Summary
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
1,537
111
1,683
126
1,752
137
1,817
146
1,883
154
1999 market conditions recovered from a tough 1998, particularly in Europe and North America, leading to full-year
1999 sales of ELOOLRQDQGDQ(%,7$RI PLOOLRQ
Trading so far in 2000 has been strong, with first-half sales
up by 15% to PLOOLRQDQG(%,7$XSE\WR
Exhibit 56
Exhibit 57
Asia Pacific
17%
Germany
30%
Americas
30%
PLOOLRQ
Sales
EBIT
1. Pro-forma
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Asia Pacific
15%
Germany
35%
Americas
33%
Europe
23%
Europe
17%
Page 44
Exhibit 58
Exhibit 59
Company/Division
Year
Acquisitions
Master Builders Technology (MBT)
Harris Specialty Chemicals
1996
1999
Investments (selective)
DM 42.5 million in R&D centre and construction chemicals
chair at the University of Munich
DM 15 million in Turkish plant
DM 25 million in admixture joint venture near Shanghai
1999
1999
1999
In 1999, Europe produced good results. However, the German market was disappointing. New product and technology
launches drove the growth, particularly in Italy, Spain,
France, Belgium and the Middle East. Although the West
German market stabilised, the East German market was still
down, as overcapacity led to pricing pressure. The Americas
showed very good results, driven by the large repair and
improvement segment and new products and systems.
In Japan, where the business is the number one in the mixture
market, better results were reported despite the financial and
economic crisis. Asia was still difficult, as the construction
sector broke down in 1998. However, we believe that these
markets are now recovering.
Construction and oil-field polymers offer stable profitability,
we believe. The increase in the oil price and subsequent
increase in oil-field activity should help this business.
Page 45
Exhibit 60
1996
1997
1998
1999E
2000E
France
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
UK
Western Europe (EC-15)
-3.8
-3.1
17.5
2.0
4.5
-1.0
2.3
-0.3
-0.9
-2.5
12.7
0.7
12.4
2.0
3.0
0.9
1.9
-4.3
10.1
3.2
5.0
6.1
1.6
0.8
4.4
-0.1
12.6
3.3
2.6
6.3
2.4
2.4
2.7
1.0
8.9
1.5
2.9
4.5
2.6
2.1
3.7
-0.2
6.8
1.1
3.7
0.9
3.4
2.5
6.5
2.3
Exhibit 61
PLOOLRQ
New
Private
Public
Total
Total
Residential
Non-Resid.
Non-Resid.
Civil
Renovation
Total
of Total
Construction
Construction
Construction
Engineer.
Industry
Construction
Eur. Construct.
68.12
16.66
20.91
11.45
18.38
7.96
8.74
7.70
6.78
1.12
2.69
4.13
1.78
2.43
______
178.86
32.96
12.38
10.45
17.46
7.43
4.49
5.69
6.10
2.27
3.58
2.36
1.71
1.85
2.48
______
111.21
5.15
3.14
4.12
5.15
0.93
1.55
1.83
0.78
0.87
1.67
0.63
1.68
0.93
0.60
______
29.03
33.87
22.17
20.37
15.55
16.62
7.11
6.36
4.27
6.92
6.50
4.92
5.15
3.41
2.85
______
156.08
56.50
47.08
42.84
36.74
13.27
14.06
10.85
8.12
5.79
8.41
6.69
0.54
5.18
3.87
______
259.95
196.60
101.45
98.70
86.36
56.63
35.18
33.47
26.98
22.62
21.27
17.30
13.22
13.16
12.22
______
735.14
26.7
13.8
13.4
11.7
7.7
4.8
4.6
3.7
3.1
2.9
2.4
1.8
1.8
1.7
______
100
Germany
Italy
France
UK
Spain
Netherlands
Austria
Belgium
Switzerland
Sweden
Denmark
Portugal
Norway
Finland
Total
Source: Euroconstruct, December 1998
Page 46
Exhibit 62
SKW Trostberg AG
100%
Affival SA
France
100%
Affival,
Inc.
85%
Stollberg,
Inc.
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
51%
Tecpro,
Inc.
SKW
Chemicals
Inc.
ChemRex,
Inc.
SKW-MBT
Services
SKW
BioSystems
Proligo
LLC
Oregon
Research
Watson
Bowman
Senergy
HSC II
Master
Buildings
Inc.
SKW-MBT
Operations
SKW-MBT
Leasing
Europe
Americas
Far East
Fosroc
SIKA
SKW-MBT
WR Grace
Euclid
SIKA
SKW-MBT
WR Grace
Fujisawa
Kao
SIKA
SKW-MBT
WR Grace
Dyckerhoff
Fosroc
Heidelberger
MC Bauchemie
SIKA
SKW-MBT
Sto
Fosroc
RPM
SIKA
SKW-MBT
Denka
Fosroc
SIKA
SKW-MBT
Sumitomo
Page 47
Exhibit 64
Surface Protection:
Marine Applications:
Marine paints
Underwater and above-water systems
Deck coatings
Interior work
Coatings Applications:
Industrial paints
Paint systems and coatings
Powder coatings and special-effect paints
Metal-protection systems
Industrial Applications:
Page 48
Summary
PLOOLRQ
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
1,363
113
1,489
138
1,576
166
1,649
189
1,712
205
Sales
EBIT
Exhibit 66
Exhibit 67
1. Pro-forma
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
C4 Chemicals
17%
C4 Chemicals
16%
Fine Chemicals
52%
Fine Chemicals
49%
Bleaching & Water
Chemicals
35%
Page 49
Exhibit 68
Exhibit 69
Market
Product Area
Uses
Share (%)
Position
Competition
>60
35
65
45
NM
44
NM
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
Lonza
BASF
Nippon
Lonza
Various
Various
Various
NM = Not meaningful
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Page 50
This business includes the ex-Degussa-Hls Hydrogen Peroxide, Cyanides and Flocculants (Stockhausen) businesses.
We estimate sales in 1999 were around PLOOLRQ
Degussa is the second-largest global producer of
hydrogen peroxide, with an estimated market share of
around 20%. The market has consolidated significantly over
the last few years. Degussa has been an active participant in
this trend, purchasing most of DuPonts peroxide business in
1998, and subsequently selling some of these assets to
Kemira and Elf Atochem. Both Degussa and Solvay have
closed some of their more inefficient plants in Europe.
In the mid 1990s, pricing was weak in both Europe and the
US due to overcapacity. Market recovery and capacity
Exhibit 71
Acquirer
BTP
BTP
Clariant
Laporte
Rhodia
Yule Catto
Target
Sales Multiple2
Hexachemie
Archimica
BTP
Inspec
Chirex
Holliday Chemicals
2.1
3.3
2.9
2.5
3.7
1.8
Value (
Others
14%
PLOOLRQ
100
260
2,100
1,200
610
540
S olva y
25%
K em ira
11%
E lf
A tochem
10%
A kzo Nob el
1 0%
D egussa
20%
FMC
10 %
Page 51
Exhibit 72
Exhibit 73
D egussa
1 5%
O thers
46%
D uP ont
15 %
P olifin
10%
Taicor
4%
O rica
5%
A GR
5%
Page 52
Exhibit 75
2-Ethylhexanol
Product
DEHP
Propylene (C3)
Butanol
C4-Products
Crack-C4
1-Butene
Butylacetate
Butene
Butadiene
Methallyl derivatives
C4 specialties
Position
1 (Europe)
4 (Europe)
1 (Global)
1 (Europe)
60
10
30
50
Isononanol
DINP
1,3-Butatdiene
Methallylderivatives
C4-specialties
Isotridecanol
Exhibit 77
Product
Product
Butene
Butadiene
Methallyls
N-butanol
Competitors
Butene
Butadiene
Methallyls
N-butanol
Major Uses
Page 53
Exhibit 78
Exhibit 79
Mio. t
2-Ethyl-hexanol
Isononanol
(cagr + 20% p.a.)
0
1996
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
1998
2000E
2002E
E = Company estimates
Source: Industry data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Page 54
Performance Chemicals
13% of core sales, 13% of core EBIT
Based on Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research 2000 forecasts
Summary
PLOOLRQ
Exhibit 80
1. Pro-forma
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Exhibit 81
Exhibit 82
Oligomers/Silicones
20%
Superabsorbents
34%
Care Specialties
46%
PLOOLRQ
Sales
EBIT
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
1,001
118
1,126
117
1,187
143
1,233
160
1,277
170
Oligomers/Silicones
28%
Superabsorbents
26%
CareSpecialties
46%
Page 55
Page 56
Exhibit 83
Exhibit 84
s tr o n g
DOW
13%
Nippon Shokubai
18%
Competitive Position
H en kel
G o ld s c h m id t
in c l.O D G
C ro d a
C la r ia n t
A lb rig h t s
&
W ils o n
IC I
BASF
25%
G o ld s c h m i d t
e x c l. O D G
Degussa
27%
A kzo
W itc o O D G
Sonstige
17%
w eak
lo w
M a r k e t A ttr a c tiv e n e s s
h ig h
Exhibit 85
Exhibit 86
1999
BA
40
kt
Crude Acid
165 kt
Crude Acid
total 570 kt
Joint Venture
2001
2003
Crude Acid
Marl
165 kt
Crude Acid
Marl new
150 kt
Crude Acid
Houston
165 kt
Crude Acid
Houston
405 kt
BA = Butyl- Acrylate
BA
40
kt
BA
Marl new
Page 57
Exhibit 87
Exhibit 88
Customer Industries
Building Chemicals
Concrete, terracotta,
wood preservation
Polishes and care products,
laundry detergents, disinfectants
Hair and skin care,
deodorants/anti-perspirants
Metal production and
treatment, surface treatment
Architectural, industry, leather
coatings, printing inks
Pulp and paper production,
paper coating
PU foams, PVC,
polymer dispersion
Fibre production,
dyeing and printing
Othe rs
18%
D e g ussa
29%
E lf
A to che m
6%
A usim o nt
8%
FMC
10%
S o lva y
29%
Page 58
Oligomers/Silicones
Polyurethane additives
Silicone (radiation-curing silicones)
Paint and ink additives
1
1
3
Surfactants
Fabric softeners (Witco ODG)
Personal care
1
4
Page 59
Exhibit 90
Degussa AG: Performance Chemicals Oligomers, Silicones and Surfactants Overview, 1999
Product Lines
Growth1
Margin2
Main Competitors
Polyurethane Additives
Paint Additives
Industrial Specialties
high
medium
low
medium
medium
low
Fabric Care
Personal Care
Home Care
high
high
average
low
high
average
Business Units
Surfactants
1. low = GDP growth minus 1-2%; average = GDP growth; high = GDP growth +.
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Page 60
Summary
The Coatings & Advanced Fillers Division contains the exDegussa-Hls Advanced Fillers & Pigments business
(formerly in Sivento), along with sections of Sivento (Aerosil
& Silanes) and Creanova (Coatings & Colorants).
The ex-Sivento products are based on high levels of technical
skill in manufacturing and handling fine-particle surfaceactive materials and systems, such as fumed silicas and
carbon black. The Coatings & Colorants area occupies
leading positions in coatings raw materials (such as resins
and cross-linking agents isophorone chemistry) and
colorants for industrial and building coatings systems.
Contributing over 50% of 2000 operating income, on our
forecasts, the main driver of this division is the Advanced
Fillers & Pigments business. This business is also among the
most profitable in Degussa-Hls portfolio, due chiefly to its
unique ability to supply a full range of key products (silanes,
carbon black and precipitated silicas) to the tyre-manufacturing industry. This area also supplies the mechanical
rubber goods and sports shoe industries.
Profitability was affected by the Asian crisis, especially in
the Aerosil area, and the Advanced Fillers & Pigments area is
significantly leveraged to carbon-black feedstock costs (and
hence to oil prices). This has had a detrimental effect on the
industrial carbon-black business, and we expect margins in
this area to be affected slightly in 2000.
PLOOLRQ
Sales
EBIT
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2,163
293
2,341
302
2,466
337
2,568
366
2,665
386
1. Pro-forma
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Exhibit 92
Exhibit 93
Coatings and
Colorants
22%
Coatings and
Colorants
28%
Page 61
Exhibit 94
Exhibit 95
OtherCoatings
Coatings and
and Advance
Advance Fillers
Fillers
Operating
Income
exceptionals
pre
9%
Sales
2000E
BP
Chemicals
8%
Degussa -Huels
50%
Sisas
8%
Dow /
Union
Carbide
10%
Tokuyama
Soda
7%
GE
3%
Wacker
15%
Degussa
50%
Cabot
25%
Elf
Atochem
15%
Page 62
The main applications are in enhancing adhesion and crosslinking and aiding the protection of surfaces (promoting
Exhibit 96
Exhibit 97
Insulation
4%
Personal
care
5%
Inks
5%
Electronics
2%
Other
8%
Raw Materials
Trichlorosilane
Trichlorosilane
Silicon
Silicon Metal
Metal
Silicone
rubber
40%
Chloropropyltri
-Chloropropyltri
chlorosilane
chlorosilane
Silicon
Silicon TetraTetrachloride
chloride
Sand
Sand (SiO
(SiO22))
Endproducts
Functional
Functional
Silanes
Silanes
Organization
BU Silane
Tetraalkylsilicates
Monosilane
Fumed
Fumed Silica
Silica
BU Aerosil
Resins
16%
Hydrophobic
Hydrophobic
Silica
Silica
Precipitated
Precipitated
Silica
Silica
Waterglass
Waterglass
Coatings
20%
Waterglass
Waterglass
Zeolites
Zeolites
Division
Fillers and
Pigments
BU Catalysts
Zeolites
Page 63
Exhibit 98
Exhibit 99
Plastics
5%
Printing Other
Inks
7%
3%
Rubber
non-tyre)
20%
Continental
8%
CSRC
4%
Others
33%
Columbian
12%
Tyres
65%
Degussa
17%
Cabot
26%
Page 64
Exhibit 100
Exhibit 101
Other
15%
Huber
9%
Rolling resistance
Degussa
25%
Target:
improve one or more
out of the three key tyre
properties listed in the
magic triangle.
Carbon black/
silica / Si 69
Carbon black
Akzo
11%
Rhodia
22%
PPG
18%
Treadwear
Traction
Page 65
Specialty Polymers
15% of core sales, 14% of core EBIT
Summary
The new Specialty Polymers division comprises Methacrylics, Specialty Acrylates and Plexiglas (ex-Degussa
businesses formerly in Rhm), as well as Engineering
Plastics (ex-Degussa business called Technical Polymers,
originally from Creanova). The division also looks after the
50:50 Latex joint venture that Degussa runs with Bayer AG,
Polymarlatex. Degussa has indicated that sales of this joint
venture were around PLOOLRQLQ
The division centres mostly on Degussas expertise in
methacrylate chemistry, and produces methylmethacrylate
(MMA)/polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) specialty acrylate
monomers and a range of polyamide-based engineering
plastics.
The MMA monomer area has not been as profitable as the
higher-value more downstream areas (such as acrylate
polymers), but remains an important link in the specialty
acrylate and PMMA chains. The business also holds global
market leading positions in polyamide-11 and -12, and is
among the market leaders in polybutylene terephthalate
(PBT). In both these areas, the business is back-integrated
into raw materials. We believe that Degussa is the only
polyamide producer that is completely back-integrated into
butadiene. Given that the main exposures of the business are
the automotive and construction markets, growth has a strong
PLOOLRQ
Sales
EBIT
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
1,243
118
1,386
125
1,454
149
1,515
173
1,576
188
1. Pro-forma
E = Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research Estimates
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Exhibit 103
Exhibit 104
Engineering Plastics
20%
Plexiglas
36%
Methacrylics
24%
Specialty Acrylates
20%
Engineering Plastics
21%
Plexiglas
31%
Methacrylics
24%
Speciality Acrylates
24%
Page 66
Position
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
12
31
21
63
29
55
19
20
MMA
Moulding Compounds/PMMA
Sheet Products/PMMA
Lubricant Additives
Coating Raw Materials
Resins
Pharma Polymers
Special Monomers
Exhibit 106
Exhibit 107
Raw
Materials
Standard
Products
Standard
Products
HCN
Actone
CH3 OH
MMA / Basic
Monomers
Molding
Compounds
Specialty
Products
Special Semifinished
Products
75
70
Performance
Plastics
65
Special Molding
Compounds
60
Pharma Polymers
55
Sheet Products
Special Monomers
Resins & Additives
50
Lubricant Additives
45
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source: Datastream
Specialty Acrylates
Page 67
Exhibit 108
Exhibit 109
Rhm
Rhm
Production costs
MMA
0
0
200
400
600
800
Capacities / kt
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Column width indicates capacity, column height indicates production cost level
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
C a p a c itie s / k t
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Column width indicates capacity, column height indicates production cost level
Page 68
Page 69
Disposal Programme
Summary
dmc2
Exhibit 110
Exhibit 111
Industrial Chem.
Salt Products
1%
Gelatins
4%
5%
Agrochemicals
Metallurg.Chem 3%
5%
Degussa Bank
0% KWH
DMT
0%
2%
TFL
0%
Textile Auxil
1%
dmc2
35%
Metallurg.Chem
5%
Degussa Bank
3%
KWH
0%
DMT
1%
C3 Oxo
2%
Industrial Chem.
2%
Gelatins
7%
Salt Products
3%
Agrochemicals
1%
dmc2
25%
TFL
0%
Textile Auxil
1%
C3 Oxo
3%
Zeolites
1%
Zeolites
1%
Phenolchemie
10%
Phenolchemie
17%
Dental
8%
ASTA Medica
15%
Dental
9%
ASTA Medica
30%
Page 70
Dental
2000E
1998
1996
C4
OXO
1994
OXENO
2004E
Metallurgical Chemicals
2002E
Page 71
Page 72
Salt Products
The remaining non-core businesses consist of the exDegussa-Hls units Zeolites, Textile Auxiliaries, TFL (TFL
Ledertechnik), DMT (Dimethylterephthalate) and KWH
(Katalysatorenwerke Hls). We estimate that the combined
sales of these businesses was around PLOOLRQLQ
We estimate these businesses could bring in proceeds of
million on potential disposal, equivalent to combined
multiples of 0.5 times sales and 4.3 times EBITDA, on our
2000 forecasts.
Potential disposals time-scale and financial impact
This is, in our view, the more likely disposal scenario that
investors should consider to help gauge how Degussa could
look in 24 months time. We believe this scenario is
reasonable, mainly because it may prove quite a challenge
for Degussa to find buyers for some of its lower-margin
businesses. The potential disposals of dmc2, ASTA Medica
and Dental are likely, on our estimates, to be accretive to
earnings and cash flow. However, many of the commodity
chemical type businesses and the more unique one-off cases
(such as Degussa Bank) are unlikely to attract premium
prices, in our opinion, and, as such, their potential disposals
could risk some degree of earnings dilution. However, with
industry forecasters predicting a strengthening chemical
cycle from early 2002 onwards, valuations may pick up from
our more cautious estimated levels.
We have attempted to account for the benefit of these
potential disposals in our model of Degussa AG. We have
assumed partial completion of the disposal programme, with
dmc2 and ASTA Medica sold in 2001 (for a combined
billion), and Phenolchemie and Dental sold in 2002 (for
a combined billion). We have assumed (for the
purposes of our model) that the rest of the non-core list
remains part of Degussas overall portfolio. This would leave
Degussa with, in 2003, non-core businesses accounting for
Page 73
Page 74
Exhibit 113
EBITDA
2000E
2000E
Implied
Implied
2000E
2000E
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
2000E EV
2000E EV
dmc2
ASTA Medica
Dental
Phenolchemie
Zeolites
Textile Auxil
TFL
C3 Oxo
DMT
KWH
Degussa Bank
Metallurg. Chem
Agrochemicals
Industrial Chem.
Gelatin
Salt Products
1896.9
808.0
440.0
912.5
52.7
33.9
10.4
164.5
112.9
15.5
244.1
187.0
58.5
257.6
195.0
168.8
89.1
53.2
69.4
6.7
5.8
1.0
11.7
9.5
4.7
-29.9
11.1
10.3
41.6
24.3
0.5
1.4
0.8
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.3
1.0
0.9
0.9
5.5
12.5
6.5
5.0
4.3
4.0
5.0
5.5
5.0
5.5
948
1,131
352
365
26
19
2
74
56
6
100
171
56
58
232
112
929
1,114
346
347
29
23
3
64
48
26
100
180
44
62
250
116
Total
5,389.5
537.2
0.7
6.8
from sales
3,710
from EBITDA
3,679
PLOOLRQ
6.0
4.0
6.0
6.0
7.5
Total Implied EV
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Exhibit 114
EBITDA
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Estimated Proceeds
2000E
2000E
2000E
2000E
2001/02E
168.8
89.1
0.5
1.4
5.6
12.6
939
1122
53.2
69.4
380.5
0.8
0.4
0.7
6.6
5.1
7.3
349
356
2,766
Assumptions
Page 75
Page 76
Current Trading
First-half 2000 results summary
PLOOLRQ
1H 2000
1H 1999
% Change
1,181
1,154
1,371
2,034
334
6,074
1,055
1,009
1,038
1,624
216
4,942
+12
+14
+32
+25
+54
+23
PLOOLRQ
1H 2000
1H 1999
% Change
45
103
62
142
3
355
60
63
29
119
(1)
270
-26
+62
+113
+21
NM
+32
NM = Not meaningful
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Page 77
Exhibit 118
PLOOLRQ
Nature Products
Performance Chemicals
Chemicals
Construction Chemicals
Other
Total Sales
1H 2000
1H 1999
% Change
505
387
352
807
19
2,070
428
200
287
701
16
1,632
+18
+93
+23
+15
+16
+27
PLOOLRQ
Nature Products
Performance Chemicals
Chemicals
Construction Chemicals
Other
Total EBITA
1H 2000
1H 1999
% Change
59
46
33
85
(15)
208
47
35
20
78
(6)
174
+25
+32
+63
+9
NM
+19
NM = Not meaningful.
Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Research
Page 78
Page 79
ELOOLRQ
Page 80
Exhibit 119
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
16,101
(11,606)
4,495
27.9
17,658
9.7
15,046
11.0
(11,837)
5,821
33.0
15,667
-11.3
14,330
-4.8
(10,427)
5,240
33.4
12,687
-19.0
12,687
-11.5
(8,346)
4,340
34.2
12,403
-2.2
12,403
-2.2
(8,159)
4,245
34.2
12,861
3.7
12,861
3.7
(8,473)
4,388
34.1
13,338
3.7
13,338
3.7
(8,801)
4,537
34.0
(2,125)
(765)
(520)
31
272
(2,331)
(839)
(624)
31
250
(2,068)
(744)
(553)
32
250
(1,675)
(602)
(448)
33
250
(1,637)
(589)
(438)
33
250
(1,698)
(611)
(454)
34
250
(1,761)
(633)
(471)
35
250
1,879
106
828
2,129
136
892
2,193
136
867
2,138
136
799
2,171
136
782
2,264
136
798
2,361
136
814
945
1,101
1,190
1,203
1,252
1,331
1,411
Interest Expenses
Interest as % of Av. Net Debt
Other Income (Expenses) - Net
(126)
5.8
(67)
(176)
6.3
(137)
(105)
6.0
(137)
16
5.8
(137)
79
5.3
(137)
121
5.3
(137)
161
5.3
(137)
(237)
(313)
(243)
(121)
(58)
(16)
24
5.2
6.0
5.9
5.8
6.6
20.2
3.5
(33)
0
0
0
(275)
(45)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pretax Profit
Pretax Profit (post Exceptionals)
709
676
788
788
947
627
1,081
1,081
1,194
1,194
1,314
1,314
1,435
1,435
(225)
31.7
(313)
39.7
(355)
37.5
(405)
37.5
(448)
37.5
(493)
37.5
(538)
37.5
484
451
(4)
475
475
(4)
592
272
(4)
676
676
(4)
747
747
(4)
822
822
(4)
897
897
(4)
Net Income
Net Income as Reported (post Excep)
Net Income Ex .Minorities
Net Income Ex/ Minorities (post Excep)
480
447
484
451
471
471
475
475
588
268
592
272
672
672
676
676
742
742
747
747
818
818
822
822
893
893
897
897
PLOOLRQ
Sales
Sales Growth (%)
Sales Excluding PM trading
Sales Growth (%)
Cost of Sales
Gross Profit
Gross Margin (%)
Selling Expenses
General & Administrative
R&D
Associated Companies
Other Income
13,549
EBITDA
Amortisation
Depreciation
EBIT pre Exceptionals
Income Tax
Rate (%)
Contd...
Page 81
Exhibit 119
Degussa AG: Profit & Loss and Per-Share Data, 1999-2005E ...Contd
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
2.33
2.17
2.17
6.88
6.72
2.29
2.29
2.29
7.29
7.29
2.86
1.30
1.30
7.74
6.18
3.27
3.27
3.27
7.81
7.81
3.61
3.61
3.61
8.08
8.08
3.98
3.98
3.98
8.52
8.52
4.34
4.34
4.34
8.96
8.96
11.2
13.6
11.9
16.4
11.6
10.0
DPS ( P
Dividends ( PQ
% Distribution of Net Profits
1.05
215.90
45.0
1.15
235.54
50.0
1.29
264.64
45.0
1.47
302.27
45.0
1.62
334.08
45.0
1.79
367.88
45.0
1.95
401.78
45.0
No of Shares (million)
Fully Diluted (million)
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
205.62
Page 82
Exhibit 120
PLOOLRQ
Sales
Health & Nutrition
Construction Chemicals
Fine and Industrial Chemicals
Performance Chemicals
Coatings and Advanced Fillers
Specialty Polymers
Other businesses (infracor, etc)
Discontinuing (Non Core)
Corporate
Other (PM Trading)
Total Group Revenues
Total Group Excl. Other /
PM trading
Total Core
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
806
1,537
1,363
1,001
2,163
1,243
546
4,890
0
2,552
16,101
950
1,683
1,489
1,126
2,341
1,386
680
5,389
0
2,612
17,658
1,015
1,752
1,576
1,187
2,466
1,454
696
4,183
0
1,337
15,667
1,067
1,817
1,649
1,233
2,568
1,515
712
2,126
0
0
12,687
1,124
1,883
1,712
1,277
2,665
1,576
729
1,438
0
0
12,403
1,184
1,948
1,776
1,325
2,767
1,641
746
1,475
0
0
12,861
1,248
2,015
1,845
1,372
2,873
1,708
764
1,513
0
0
13,338
13,549
8,659
15,046
9,656
14,330
10,147
12,687
10,560
12,403
10,966
12,861
11,387
13,338
11,826
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
17.8
9.5
9.3
12.5
8.3
11.6
24.5
10.2
9.7
11.5
6.9
4.1
5.8
5.3
5.3
4.9
2.4
(22.4)
(11.3)
5.1
5.1
3.7
4.6
3.9
4.1
4.2
2.3
(49.2)
(19.0)
4.1
5.3
3.6
3.8
3.6
3.8
4.1
2.4
(32.4)
(2.2)
3.8
5.3
3.5
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.1
2.4
2.6
3.7
3.8
5.4
3.5
3.8
3.6
3.8
4.1
2.4
2.6
3.7
3.9
5.4
7.3
8.9
8.5
7.6
10.0
9.8
4.5
6.8
8.1
5.4
7.2
8.8
8.5
7.5
9.9
9.7
4.5
7.0
8.0
5.3
7.1
8.7
8.4
7.5
9.8
9.6
4.4
7.4
8.0
5.2
7.0
8.5
8.2
7.3
9.6
9.5
4.4
7.4
7.8
5.1
6.9
8.3
8.0
7.2
9.4
9.3
4.3
7.3
7.6
5.0
6.7
8.2
7.9
7.0
9.2
9.1
4.3
7.1
7.5
51.4
122.7
132.1
96.2
178.0
138.4
66.9
242.3
1028.0
785.7
54.4
126.5
138.4
100.3
185.7
143.7
67.8
186.2
1002.9
816.7
56.6
129.8
143.3
103.2
191.4
148.2
68.7
93.7
934.9
841.2
58.4
131.8
145.8
104.7
194.7
151.2
68.9
62.7
918.2
855.5
60.3
133.7
148.3
106.5
198.0
154.2
69.1
63.7
933.8
870.1
62.3
135.5
150.9
108.1
201.5
157.3
69.4
64.7
949.7
885.1
44.1
113.2
122.1
86.3
166.1
125.3
57.0
219.8
934.0
714.1
Contd ...
Page 83
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
EBITDA
Health & Nutrition
117
Construction Chemicals
224
Fine and Industrial Chemicals
235
Performance Chemicals
204
Coatings and Advanced Fillers
459
Specialty Polymers
243
Other Businesses (Infracor, etc)
54
Discontinuing (Non-Core)
443
Total
1,979
Corporate HQ / Charges
(100)
Total after Corporate Charges
1,879
Total Core (after corporate charges)1,436
158
249
271
213
480
263
63
537
2,234
(105)
2,129
1,592
177
263
305
243
522
293
64
424
2,290
(97)
2,193
1,769
193
276
332
263
557
322
65
219
2,227
(89)
2,138
1,919
208
286
350
274
581
340
65
150
2,254
(84)
2,171
2,021
221
295
365
286
605
354
65
156
2,346
(82)
2,264
2,108
235
305
380
297
630
368
65
163
2,441
(80)
2,361
2,198
14.6
14.6
17.2
20.4
21.2
19.6
9.9
9.1
12.3
11.7
16.6
16.6
14.8
18.2
18.9
20.5
19.0
9.3
10.0
12.7
12.1
16.5
17.4
15.0
19.3
20.5
21.2
20.1
9.2
10.1
14.6
14.0
17.4
18.1
15.2
20.1
21.3
21.7
21.2
9.1
10.3
17.6
16.8
18.2
18.5
15.2
20.5
21.5
21.8
21.5
8.9
10.4
18.2
17.5
18.4
18.6
15.2
20.5
21.6
21.9
21.5
8.7
10.6
18.2
17.6
18.5
18.8
15.1
20.6
21.6
21.9
21.6
8.5
10.8
18.3
17.7
18.6
13.9
14.2
15.3
16.8
17.5
17.6
17.7
106
126
138
117
302
125
(4)
295.1
(105)
1,206
1,101
806
122
137
166
143
337
149
(4)
237
(97)
1,288
1,190
953
137
146
189
160
366
173
(4)
125
(89)
1,292
1,203
1078
149
154
205
170
386
188
(4)
87
(84)
1,336
1,252
1,165
160
161
217
179
407
199
(4)
93
(82)
1,413
1,331
1,238
172
169
229
189
428
211
(4)
98
(80)
1,492
1,411
1,313
PLOOLRQ
Contd...
Page 84
PLOOLRQ
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
11.2
7.5
9.3
10.4
12.9
9.0
-0.5
4.8
-15.5
6.6
6.0
8.3
12.1
7.8
10.6
12.1
13.7
10.3
-0.5
5.1
-14.0
8.1
7.5
9.4
12.8
8.1
11.5
13.0
14.3
11.5
-0.5
5.3
-12.5
10.1
9.4
10.2
13.3
8.2
12.0
13.3
14.5
12.0
-0.5
5.5
-11.5
10.7
10.0
10.6
13.6
8.3
12.2
13.6
14.7
12.2
-0.5
5.7
-11.0
10.9
10.3
10.9
13.8
8.4
12.4
13.8
14.9
12.4
-0.5
5.9
-10.5
11.1
10.5
11.1
10.0
10.3
10.5
7.1
8.2
9.4
Page 85
Exhibit 121
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
Sources of Cash
Operating Profit (Excl. Restructuring) 945
Depreciation & Amortisation
934
Associated Companies (Net of Div)
31
Change in Provisions
143
(Gain)/Loss on Sale of FA
(4)
Other
53
Total Sources
2,102
1,101
1,028
31
0
0
0
2,160
1,190
1,003
32
0
0
0
2,225
1,203
935
33
0
0
0
2,170
1,252
918
33
0
0
0
2,204
1,331
934
34
0
0
0
2,298
1,411
950
35
0
0
0
2,396
Uses of Cash
WC Changes Increase/(Decrease)
Capital Expenditure
Dividends
Financial Charges /Interest
Tax
Exceptional Cash Flows
Other Operating Flows
Total Uses
509
1,044
45
126
225
0
0
1,948
432
1,091
216
176
225
0
200
2,339
(98)
968
236
105
313
275
45
1,844
(139)
793
265
(16)
355
0
0
1,257
(47)
775
302
(79)
405
0
0
1,357
68
817
334
(121)
448
0
0
1,545
70
867
368
(161)
493
0
0
1,636
154
(179)
381
913
847
753
760
Acquisitions
Disposals of Fixed Assets
Disposal of Business
Disposals
Preference Issues/Equity Raised
Foreign Exchange
Other Changes in Net Debt
Decrease/(Increase) in Net Debt
(1,265)
210
0
210
0
(1.2)
30.2
(872)
0
0
0
0
0
0
(150.0)
(329)
0
0
0
2,061
0
0
0
2,442
0
0
0
705
0
0
0
1,618
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
847
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
753
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
760
Net Borrowings
(872)
Opening Net Debt per Bal Sheet
1,665
Opening Net Debt incl Pension Prov. 4,013
Closing Net Debt
2,648
Closing Net Debt incl Pension Prov.5,035
(329)
2,648
5,035
2,977
5,364
2,442
2,977
5,364
535
2,921
1,618
535
2,921
(1,083)
1,304
847
(1,083)
1,304
(1,930)
457
753
(1,930)
457
(2,683)
(297)
760
(2,683)
(297)
(3,443)
(1,056)
2,813
5,199
2,387
1,756
4,143
2,387
(274)
2,113
2,387
(1,506)
880
2,387
(2,307)
80
2,387
(3,063)
(676)
2,387
237
6.25
176
5.75
137
313
6.00
105
5.75
137
243
5.75
(16)
5.75
137
121
5.25
(79)
5.75
137
58
5.25
(121)
5.75
137
16
5.25
(161)
5.75
137
-24
5.83%
6.25%
6.00%
5.75%
5.25%
5.25%
5.25%
5.23%
6.02%
5.86%
5.75%
6.61%
20.17%
3.49%
7.25%
6.75%
6.25%
6.25%
6.35%
6.50%
7.25%
1.06
6.3
37
0.2
6.75%
0.96
11.3
617
4.3
6.25%
0.85
(76.3)
1177
9.3
6.25%
0.84
(15.8)
1149
9.3
6.35%
0.87
(11.0)
1087
8.5
6.50%
0.91
(8.8)
1127
8.5
PLOOLRQ
5.01
Page 86
Exhibit 122
PLOOLRQ
1999A1
2000E
2001E
2002E
2003E
2004E
2005E
5,203
1,681
1,217
5,402
1,752
1,214
8,101
8,368
4,531
1,616
988
0
7,135
4,039
1,480
897
0
6,416
4,032
1,344
897
0
6,273
4,051
1,208
897
0
6,156
4,104
1,072
897
0
6,073
3,554
493
1,234
3,986
493
1,234
0
_____
5,713
_____
14,081
_____
3,497
493
1,005
0
_____
4,996
_____
12,131
_____
2,801
493
913
0
_____
4,207
_____
10,623
_____
2,707
493
913
0
_____
4,113
_____
10,386
_____
2,774
493
913
0
_____
4,180
_____
10,336
_____
2,845
493
913
0
_____
4,251
_____
10,324
_____
1,126
0
0
2,919
0
_____
4,045
_____
92
_____
1,126
0
0
3,272
0
_____
4,398
_____
92
_____
1,126
0
0
3,679
0
_____
4,805
_____
92
_____
1,126
0
0
4,119
0
_____
5,245
_____
92
_____
1,126
0
0
4,602
0
_____
5,729
_____
92
_____
1,126
0
0
5,127
0
_____
6,254
_____
92
_____
2,830
2,387
3,107
_____
8,323
_____
387
2,387
3,204
_____
5,977
_____
(1,230)
2,387
2,856
_____
4,012
_____
(2,077)
2,387
2,984
_____
3,293
_____
(2,831)
2,387
3,159
_____
2,714
_____
(3,590)
2,387
3,336
_____
2,132
_____
568
313
740
_____
1,621
_____
9,944
_____
14,081
_____
22.6%
_____
3,398
_____
12,460
12,116
_____
4,137
3,999
_____
9.1
10.2
11.8
568
355
740
_____
1,664
_____
7,641
_____
12,131
_____
22.3%
_____
956
_____
10,467
11,464
_____
4,490
4,314
_____
10.4
11.6
13.6
568
405
740
_____
1,714
_____
5,726
_____
10,623
_____
22.1%
_____
(662)
_____
8,909
9,688
_____
4,897
4,694
_____
12.4
13.8
14.3
568
448
740
_____
1,756
_____
5,049
_____
10,386
_____
21.8%
_____
(1,509)
_____
8,630
8,769
_____
5,337
5,117
_____
14.3
15.8
14.5
568
493
740
_____
1,801
_____
4,516
_____
10,336
_____
21.6%
_____
(2,262)
_____
8,535
8,583
_____
5,821
5,579
_____
15.5
17.1
14.7
568
538
740
_____
1,846
_____
3,978
_____
10,324
_____
21.3%
_____
(3,022)
_____
8,477
8,506
_____
6,346
6,083
_____
16.6
18.2
14.7
_____
5,281
_____
13,382
_____
Page 87
Europe
Japan
Asia/Pacific
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Prices of companies mentioned in this report (Closing prices September 15, 2000)
3M (US$ 83.19), A. Schulman (US$ 11.69), Air Liquide ( $N]R1REHO $VDKL&KHPLFDOV580), BASF
( %D\HU %2&9.15), Celanese ( &LED6&6)U&ODULDQW6)U&URPSWRQ86&\WHF
(US$31.00), DSM ( 'X3RQW86(FRODE86(21 (WK\O86)HUUR86*UHDW
Lakes (US$30.38), Henkel (ord) ( +HQNHOSUHI +HUFXOHV86,&,4.16), Laporte (4.15), Linde
( /RQ]D6)U/XEUL]RO86/\RQGHOO860LOOLSRUH863RO\2QH8633*
(US$38.13), Praxair (US$ 37.94), Rhodia ( 5RFKH6)U5|KP +DDV866LJPD$OGULFK86
28.31), Solutia (US$11.94), Valspar, (US$27.19), Yule Catto, (1.90).
____________________________________________________
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