Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

Project Scheduling II

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

Scheduling Tools
; Bar charts
; Network Diagrams
;CPM
;PERT

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Prepared by: Farhan Saleem

Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

PERT

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

PERT Advantage
PERT network allows the use of probability theory for estimation of
activity and project completion dates when there is
uncertainty.
The advantage of the PERT statistical approach is that it offers a
method of dealing with chance variation

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Prepared by: Farhan Saleem

Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

CPM Vs. PERT
CPM is based on a deterministic model: projects on which every
activity has a mean value of performance time accurately
known and a variance in performance time that is negligible.
Examples are well-established construction work &
maintenance operations.
PERT is based on a probabilistic model, i.e. a model in which every
activity is a variable activity: perhaps never been performed
before, and which is characterized by a large variance in its
actual performance time. Examples are excavation of
unsampled soil, or the performance of outdoor construction
work during heavy rainfall seasons.

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

PERT Situations: Example Activities

Example :
Consider an activity involving digging of drainage ditches outdoors. The
normal activity duration is estimated to be 4 weeks. The estimator
provides allowance for rain. With this contingency, the activity duration
is taken as 4.5 weeks. However, when actually performed, the activity
took less than 4.5 weeks because of good weather conditions.

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Prepared by: Farhan Saleem

Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

Sources of Uncertainty
Weather,
Equipment failures,
Personnel problems,
Uncertainties in the methods to be used in carrying out the activity,
Delayed material procurement,
Coordination issues,
Etc.

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

PERT Situations: Example Projects

Building a canal to connect Atlantic and the Pacific

Constructing worlds tallest skyscraper for New York City

Designing a new automobile

A new R&D project

A marketing campaign for a new product

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

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Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

PERT Probability Basis:
Probability Distribution Curves
The total area under any probability distribution
curve is always exactly equal to 1, so that the area
under the curve between any two values of x is
directly the probability that the random variable x
will fall in this interval.
Any line erected from the horizontal to the curve
represents the probability or chance that the
variable will take on the value of the point on the
horizontal line from which the line rises.
To describe a probability distribution quantitatively,
two measures are needed - one which locates the
point about which the distribution is centered i.e. a
measure of its central tendency: mode, and the
other which indicates the spread or dispersion in
the distribution i.e. a measure of its variability:
standard deviation.

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0

10

15

20

25

30

Farhan Saleem

PERT Probability Basis:

Probability Distribution Curves
A continuous probability distribution can be a normal (can be thought
of as beta with no skew) or beta (positively skewed or negatively
skewed) distribution.

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

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Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

PERT Probability Basis:
Probability Distribution Curves
Physical Interpretation
Deviation

of

Mean

and

Standard

In any continuous probability distribution:

Approximately 68 percent of all the values lie within 1
standard deviation from the mean.
Approximately 95 percent of all the values lie within 2
standard deviation from the mean.
Approximately 99 percent of all the values lie within 3
standard deviation from the mean.

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

PERT Probability Basis:

Probability Distribution Curves
Physical Interpretation of Mean and Standard
Deviation

68%
95%
99%

-3

-2

-1

+1

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+2

+3
Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

PERT Probability Basis:
Probability Distribution Curves
Normal Probability Distribution
The

normal distribution, in many cases, is a reasonable

approximation of construction phenomena.

Normal distributions are symmetrical.

The normal distribution curves have two trends. Firstly, there are
curves with high values of standard deviation (more dispersion
from average) and, secondly, there are curves with low values
of standard deviation (values tend to group themselves tightly
around the average).

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

PERT Probability Basis:

Probability Distribution Curves
Normal Probability Distribution

Two variant curves. (a) Values are widely dispersed away from their average.
(b) Values are tightly grouped about their average.

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

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Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

PERT Time Definitions
a = optimistic performance time; the time which would be bettered
only one time in twenty if the activity could be performed
repeatedly under the same essential conditions.
b = pessimistic performance time; the time which would be
exceeded only one time in twenty if the activity could be
performed repeatedly under the same essential conditions.
m = most likely time; the modal value of the distribution, or the
value which is likely to occur more often than any other
value.
Note that with respect to the most pessimistic time, the estimator does not
normally include in his deliberations the possibility of floods, fires and acts
of God.
EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

PERT: Means and Variances

Event in a network
Central Limit Theorem

Activity
Mean
based on beta distribution
tm =

a + 4m + b
6

tm1, s1

Standard deviation

T = t1 + t2 + + tn
A sequence of n independent activities

based on several distributions

s =

b a
3 .2

Note:
tm= m only if a and b are
symmetrically
placed
(normal
distribution)
In CPM procedure the single time
estimate is an estimate of the
mean activity duration and not
necessarily the most likely time

If n is large enough then

T is approximately normally distributed

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tmn, sn

tm2, s2

Mean
Variance
Tm
V

n
t mi
i=1
n
= V ti
i=1
=

16

Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

PERT Computations: Example
5+4x7+10
6

Activity
A
B
K

a
5
7
10

m b
7
10
11 15
12 13

10-5
3.2

mean
7.2
11
11.8

std dev
1.56
2.5
0.94

Critical path to milestone:

BEHKL
11+10+8+11.83+7

D
28,5

J
12,2

N
8,1.2
Milestone:
L to complete
by day 50

G
10,1.5

C
8,2.8

Mean = 47.83
Variance = 20.63
Std dev = 4.54

L
7,1.5

I
4,0

M
22,0

E
10,3

2.52 + 32 + 1.52 + 0.942 + 1.52

H
8,1.5
8,1.5

P(T50) = P(z 0.4780)

= 0.6837
std normal variate, z
50 - 47.83
4.54

ADL
CGKL
BEHKL
BFHKL

F
7,2

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42.17
36.83
47.83
44.83

Farhan Saleem

PERT Computations: Another Example

2

(4,1.0)

[a,m,b]

(2,0.5)

(1,0.1)

[1,2,3]

(5,14.06)

(4,1.56)

(3,0.39)

[6,8,10]

(1,0.1)

[3.5,5,6.5]
4

(3,0.3)

Act.
1-3
3-7
7-9

Mean
2
8
5

symmetrical
Variance
1+4x2+3
3-1 2
0.39
6
3.2
1.56
0.88

Event
3
7
8
9 (complete)

Mean
2
10
11
15

Variance
0.39
Path 1-3-7
1.95
16.01 Path 1-3-6-8
2.83
Path 1-3-7-9

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(tm, vt)

Project
completion
14
15
By path 1-3-6-8-9
Mean: 14
Variance: 16.40
What is the effect of this?

Farhan Saleem

Lecture 9: Project Scheduling-II

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

Farhan Saleem

Questions/Queries?

EM-504: Project Management Framework And Tools

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Farhan Saleem

10