SESSION 1

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 1
NASDAQ Composite and Current Volatility

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 2
The Long-Term Moving Average Channel of NASDAQ

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 3
MACD Patterns of the S & P 500 Threatening to Break
Long-Term Downtrend
3

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 4
NASDAQ/NYSE Index Relative Strength Favors NASDAQ Bullish

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 5
Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 1

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 6
Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 2

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 7
Angle Changes

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 8
T-Formations
8

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 9
NASDAQ Composite T-Formations
9

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 1 Jan. 19, 2003

Slide 10
Andrews Pitchfork

10

SESSION 2
A Master Class with Gerald Appel
Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 1
Illustration of MACD Concept

11

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 2 Introducing the Signal Line

12

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 3
The Basic Buy and Sell Signals

13

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 4
Using Divergences to Recognize the Reliable Signals

14

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 5
Further Examples of Divergences

15

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 6
Comparing MACD to a Price Momentum Oscillator

16

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 7
Comparison of MACD and RSI

17

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 8
Different MACDs for Buy and Sell Signals

18

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 9
MACD During a Strong Market Uptrend

19

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 10
MACD During a Strong Downtrend

20

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 11
Treasury Bonds, MACD, and a Strong Uptrend

21

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 12
The Stop-Loss Signal for an Unsuccessful Trade

22

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 13
Using Trendlines to Confirm Buy and Sell Signals

23

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 14
Long-Term MACD Signal The Start of a Bull Market

24

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 15
A Long Bull Market then the Crash

25

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 16
Using Monthly MACD to Define Very Major Trends

26

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 17
Using Time Cycles to Confirm MACD Signals

27

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 18
Using Time Cycles 2nd Example

28

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 19
When MACD Does Not Provide Timely Signals

29

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 20
Four Stages of MACD and the Market Cycle

30

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 21
The 1998 Bottom

31

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 22
A Bull and then a Bear Market

32

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 23
Catching the Lows The 1984 bottom

33

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 24
A Second Example of Bottom Finding

34

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 25
A Final Example of Bottom Finding

35

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 2 Jan. 20, 2003

Slide 26
Bear Market Rally, 2001 - 2002

36

SESSION 3
A Master Class with Gerald Appel
Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 1
Summary

37

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 2
Drawdown

38

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 3
Some Risk-Adjusted Performance Measures (Higher Is
Better)

39

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 4
Normal Risks for Various Investments (Not Worst Case)

40

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 5
Basic Risk Control Strategies

41

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 6
Core Portfolio Designed to Minimize 1Year Losses

42

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 7
Four Parts of a Portfolio

43

Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 8
Core Portfolio Performance History

44

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 9
Minimum Risk Portfolio

45

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 10
Core Portfolio at Vanguard

46

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 11
Core Portfolio with ETFs

47

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 12
Concept of Relative Strength

48

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 13
Example of Relative Strength Analysis: NYSE Composite
Rises faster when NASDAQ is Strong

49

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 14
Large Cap Value/Growth Model

50

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 15
SVX Divided by SGX (monthly)

51

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 16
Performance of SVX/SGX Model since 1994

52

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 17
Average Performance of Large Cap Value Mutual Funds vs.
Large Cap Growth Mutual Funds since 1962

53

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 18
Large Cap Value Divided by Large Cap Growth

54

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 19
Large Cap versus Small Cap Model

55

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 20
S&P 500 Divided by S&P 600 (monthly)

56

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 21
Performance of S&P 500/SML Model since 1995

57

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 22
S&P 500 Index vs. Average Small Cap Mutual Funds since
1979

58

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 23
S&P 600/Cash Timing Model Rules

59

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 24
S&P Small Cap/Cash Timing Model

60

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 25
S&P 600/Cash Model Results

61

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 26
Interest Rates and Stocks

62

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 27
Stocks and Interest Rates

63

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 28
Results: Rates and Stocks, 1962 - 2002

64

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 29
Avoid Sales Loads

65

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 30
How is Your Fund Doing?

66

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 3 Jan. 21, 2003

Slide 31
Mutual Funds vs. S&P 500

67

SESSION 4
A Master Class with Gerald Appel
Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 1
Basic Concept of Moving Average Trading Channel

68

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 2
Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading
Channel (NASDAQ Composite Daily)

69

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23 , 2003

Slide 3
Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading
Channel (NYSE Composite, Monthly)

70

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23 , 2003

Slide 4
Long Term Weekly Chart NYSE Index 21-Week Average,
6% Bands

71

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 5
Moving Average Channels in a Flat Market Period
1991-1992
72

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 6
The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility,
1970 - 1979

73

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 7
The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility,
1980-1989

74

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 8
The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility,
1990-1999

75

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 9
The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility,
2000-2002

76

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 10
Peak Volatility, Subsequent Market Movement

77

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 11
Investment Strategies for Uncertain Times

78

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 12
Why Safer Stock Funds Work Better

79

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 13
Avg % Gain in Winning Months - Avg % Loss in Losing
Months Based on Volatility Groups

80

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 14
Gain per Year, Based on Volatility Groups 20 Years

81

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 15
Closed Drawdowns Based on Volatility Groups

82

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 16
Fund Rotation Strategy Performance by Performance
Rank

83

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23 , 2003

Slide 17
NASDAQ Composite NASDAQ/NYSE minus 10 Week
Moving Average, 1970-1973

84

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 18
NASDAQ Composite NASDAQ/NYSE minus 10 Week
Moving Average, 1980-1984

85

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 19
NASDAQ Composite NASDAQ/NYSE minus 10 Week
Moving Average, 1997-2002

86

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 20
NASDAQ Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs.
NASDAQ Buy and Hold
NYSE Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs.
NASDAQ Buy and Hold

87

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 21
NASDAQ Relative Strength Summary

88

A Master Class with Gerald Appel

Technical Analysis Workshop
St. Maarten Jan 19, 20, 21, and 23, 2003

Session 4 Jan. 23, 2003

Slide 22
Relative Strength with Intermediate Monetary Filter

89