Week14Chapter 9.1 9.3

Week 14: Chapter 9.1-9.
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CI & Hypotheses Tests for Two Large Samples
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Identifying the Target Parameter
1 2
Mean difference;
difference in
averages
Quantitative Data
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Comparing Two Population Means

Independent Sampling
Point Estimators

1 2 1 2
To construct a confidence interval or conduct a
hypothesis test, we need the standard deviation:
Single Sample
x s
Two Samples
x x
1
s12 s22
n1 n2
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Sampling Distribution for (x1 x2 )

1. The mean of the sampling distribution of
1 2 is (1 2 ) That is:
x x x x 1 2
1
2.
If the two samples are independent, the standard

deviation of the sampling distribution is:
x x
1
s12 s22
n1 n2
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The Sampling Distribution for (x1 x2 )

3. The sampling distribution for 1 2 is
approximately normal for large samples.
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Large Sample CI for 1 2
100(1 )% confidence interval for 1 2 is:

1 2
1 2
21 22
+
1 2
21 22
+
1 2
Conditions Required for Valid Large-Sampling

Inferences about 1 2
1. The two samples are randomly and independently
selected from the target populations.
2. The sample sizes are both 30.
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Example: College Retention

Private Colleges
Public Universities
n: 71
n: 32
Mean: 78.17
Mean: 84
Standard Deviation: 9.55
Variance: 91.17
Variance: 97.64
What does a 95% confidence

interval tell us about retention
rates?
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Label the parameters
1 = the mean retention for first-year students at private

institutions.
2 = the mean retention for first-year students at public

institutions.
The parameter of interest is 1 2 , the mean difference

of retention between private and public institutions.
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Verify the required conditions
1. Assume two populations are independent and a sample
from each institution is selected randomly.
2. Samples are large.
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Calculate the Confidence Interval
95% confidence interval for 1 2 is:

1 2
21 22
+
1 2
78.17 84 1.96
91.1 97.64
+
71
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5.83 4.08
(9.91, 1.75)
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Interpretation
Using this estimation procedure over and over again for

different samples, we know that approximately 95% of the
confidence intervals formed in this manner will enclose the
1 2 .
Therefore, we are 95% confident that the mean retention

for private institutions is between 1.75 and 9.91 less than
the mean retention for the public institutions.
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Comparing Means from Two

Independent Populations (large sample)
1 = the population mean for population I
2 = the population mean for population II
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis
0 : 1 2 = 0
Alternative Hypotheses
: 1 2 < 0
: 1 2 > 0
: 1 2 0
0 = Hypothesized difference between the means
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Test
We will use a large sample z-test.
Required Conditions
1. Assume two populations are independent and
a sample from each population is selected
randomly.
2. Samples are large.
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Level of Significance
=? ? ? (usually given, if not choose = .05)
Rejection region
> if upper tailed test (or : 1 2 > 0 )
> if lower tailed test (or : 1 2 < 0 )

> 2 or > 2 if two-tailed test (or : 1 2 0 )
Calculation of proposed test statistic

z
( x1 x2 ) D0
(x x
1
2)
where, ( x1 x2 )
12
n1
22
n2
s12 s22
n1 n2
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Decision and conclusion
If the calculated value of the proposed test
statistic belongs to the rejection region, we reject
0 ; otherwise we fail to reject 0 .
Write the conclusion in the context
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Making a Decision Using -Value

1. Upper-tailed test
: 1 2 > 0
= P (z zcal)
2. Lower-tailed test
: 1 2 < 0
3. Two-tailed test
= P(z zcal)
= 2 P(z | zcal |)
: 1 2 0
Decision Rule:
If < , we reject 0
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Example: College Retention 2

Private Colleges
Public Universities
n: 71
n:32
Mean: 78.17
Mean: 84
Variance: 91.17
Variance: 97.64
Test the hypothesis that there is no significant

difference in retention at privates and publics.
Use = .05.
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1 = the mean retention for first-year students at private
institutions.
2 = the mean retention for first-year students at public
institutions.
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis
0 : 1 2 = 0
Alternative Hypothesis
: 1 2 0
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Test
We will use large sample z-test to compare the mean
difference of retention between private and public
institutions.
Verifying required conditions

1. Assume two populations are independent and a sample
from each institution is selected randomly.
2. Samples are large
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= 0.05
Rejection Region
< 1.96 or > 1.96
Calculation of test statistic

zcal
( x1 x2 ) D0
s12 s22
n1 n2
(78.17 84) 0 5.83
2.799
2.08
91.17 97.64
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Decision and Conclusion
Since = 2.799 is less than 1.96, that is,
= 2.799 belongs to the rejection region, so we
reject the null hypothesis.
We conclude that there is insufficient evidence at 5%
level of significance to support the claim that there is no
significant difference in retention rates at private and
public institutions.
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Using p-value approach
= 2 2.799
= 2 0.0025 .0050
OR
= 2 ( > 2.799) = 2 0.0025 .0050

Since < , we reject 0 .
We conclude that there is insufficient evidence at 5% level
of significance to support the claim that there is no
significant difference in retention rates at privates and
publics.
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Week 14: Chapter 9.2 (cont.)

CI & Hypotheses Tests for Two Small Samples
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Small Sample Confidence Interval for

(1 2 ) for equal variances
Required conditions:
1. The two samples are randomly selected in an independent
manner from the two target populations.
2. Both sampled populations have distributions that are
approximately normal.
3. The population variances are equal, but unknown.
Check: We will be using the following rule to check the
equality of population variances.
1 s1
2
2 s2
4. Sample sizes are small.
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Small Sample CI for 1-2
100(1-)% confidence interval for 1-2 is:

1 1
( x1 x2 ) t
s p
, ( n1 n2 2 )
n1 n2
2
2
Where
2
2
(
n
1
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s
(
n
1
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s
1
2
2
s 2p 1
n1 n2 2
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Example: Teaching Reading

TABLE 9.2 Reading Test Scores for Slow Learners
New Method
Standard Method
80
80
79
81
79
62
70
68
76
66
71
76
73
76
86
73
70
85
72
68
75
66
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1 = the mean reading test scores of slow learners taught
with the new method.
2 = the mean reading test scores of slow learners taught
with the standard method.
1 2 = the mean difference of

reading test scores of slow
learners taught with the new
method and standard method.
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Verifying required
conditions
1. The samples are
randomly and
independently selected
from the populations of
slow learner taught by
the new method and the
standard method.
2. The test scores are
approximately normally
distributed for both
teaching methods.
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Verifying required conditions
3. The variance of the test scores is the same for the two
populations.
Check: We will be using the following rule to check the
equality of population variances.
1 s1
2
2 s2
5.8348
= .9198 which is <2
6.3438
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95% confidence interval for is
1 1
( x1 x2 ) t
s p
, ( n1 n2 2 )
n1 n2
2
2
(n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22

Where, s p
n1 n2 2
2
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Given,
New Method
Standard
Method
Mean
Std. Dev.
76.4
5.8348
10
72.3333
6.3437
12
1 1 21 + 2 1 22
=
1 + 2 2
2
10 1 5.8348 2 + 12 1 6.3437
=
10 + 12 2
= 37.45
1 + 2 2 = 10 + 12 2 = 20
= .025 = 2.086
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You can calculate:
1 2
1
1
1
1
+
= 76.4 72.33 .025 37.45
+
1 2
10 12
= 4.07 2.086 2.62
= 4.07 5.47
= (1.4, 9.54)
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Interpretation
1 2 .
Therefore, we are 95% confident that
the difference in mean test scores
between using the new method of
teaching and using the standard
method falls into somewhere the
interval from 1.4 9.54.
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Independent Populations (small sample)
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis
0 : 1 2 = 0
Alternative Hypotheses
: 1 2 < 0
: 1 2 > 0
: 1 2 0
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Test
We will use two small samples t-tests.
( x1 x2 ) ( 1 2 )
t
~ t( n1 n2 2 ) df
1
1
s 2p
n1 n2
Required Conditions
1. The two samples are randomly selected in an
independent manner from the two target populations.
2. Both sampled populations have distributions that are
approximately normal.
3. The population variances are equal, but unknown.
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Level of significance
Rejection Region
> if upper tailed test (or : 1 2 > 0 )

< if lower tailed test (or : 1 2 > 0 )
> 2 or < 2 if two-tailed test (or : 1 2 0 )

tcal
( x1 x2 ) D0
1 1
s p
n1 n2
~ t( n1 n2 2) df
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If the calculated value of the proposed test statistic
belongs to the rejection region, we reject 0 ;
otherwise we fail to reject 0 .
Write the conclusion in the context.
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Finding -Values for a Test

1. Upper-tailed test
= ( > )
: 1 2 > 0
2. Lower-tailed test
: 1 2 < 0
3. Two-tailed test
: 1 2 0
1 + 2 2
1 + 2 2
= ( > )
= 2 ( > | |)
1 + 2 2
Decision Rule:
If < , we reject 0
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Example: Class Time

Does class time affect performance?
The test performance of students in two sections of
international trade, meeting at different times, were
compared.
8:00 AM Class
9:30 AM Class
Mean: 78
Mean: 82
Standard Deviation: 14
Standard Deviation: 17
Variance: 196
Variance: 289
n: 21
n: 21
With = .05, test 0 : 1 = 2 .
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Example: Class Time

Let 1 be the mean test scores of students in the 8:00 am
section of the international trade class.
Let 2 be the mean test score of students in the 9:30 am
section of the international trade class.
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis
0 : 1 2 = 0
: 1 2 0
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Example: Class Time

Test
We will use small-sample t-test.
Required Conditions
1. Assume 8:00 am and 9:30 am classes are independent and
samples from these classes are chosen randomly.
2. Both sampled populations have
distributions that are approximately
normal.
3. Since 1 2 = .824, so we assume
that the population variances are
equal, but unknown.
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Example: Class Time

Level of significance
= 0.05
Rejection Region
< 2.021 or > 2.021 (Note that = 40)

tcal
( x1 x2 ) D0
1 1
s 2p
n1 n2
(78 82) 0
1 1
(242 .5)
21 21
.832
2
2
(
n
1
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s
(
n
1
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s
20 196 20 289
1
2
2
s 2p 1
242 .5
n1 n2 2
40
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Example: Class Time

Since = .832 is greater than 2.021, and is less
than 2.021, does not belong to the rejection
region, so we do not reject the null hypothesis.
We conclude that there is sufficient
evidence at 5% level of significance to
say that the mean test scores of
students in the 8:00 am and 9:30 am
sections of international trade class are
the same.
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Example: Class Time

Decision using p-value approach
-value = 2 40
. 832 = 2 > .10 = > .20
OR
-value = 2 > .832 = 2 > .10 = > .20

Since -value > , we do not reject 0 .
We conclude that there is sufficient
evidence at 5% level of significance to
say that the mean test scores of
students in the 8:00 am and 9:30 am
sections of international trade class
are the same.
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Week 14: Chapter 9.3

Paired Differences
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Comparison of Paired Samples

Paired data
Calculate the differences between each
pair = 1 2
Paired -tests use this difference data calculates
the mean of the differences and the standard error
of the differences
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Paired Difference Confidence

Interval for = 1 2
Let be the population mean difference of
population differences between Population I and
Population II.
100(1 )% Confidence Interval for = 1 2
is
Where,
= sample mean difference
= sample standard deviation of differences
= number of pairs observe
= t-critical value at 1
2
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Paired Difference Confidence

Interval for = 1 2
Required Conditions
1. A random sample of differences is selected
from the target population differences.
2. The population of differences has a distribution
that is approximately normal.
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Example: Starting Salaries

Data on Annual Salaries for Matched Pairs of College Graduates
Pair
Male
Female
=
Diff
$29,300
$28,800
500
$41,500
$41,600
-100
$40,400
$39,800
600
$38,500
$38,500
$43,500
$42,600
900
$37,800
$38,00
-200
$69,500
$69,200
300
$41,200
$40,100
1100
$38,400
$38,200
200
10
$59,200
$58,500
700
Compare the starting salaries using a 95% confidence interval

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1 = the mean starting salary for males in this sample
2 = the mean starting salary for females in this sample
The parameter of interest is = 1 2 , the mean of
differences of two paired mean salaries between male and
female recent college graduates.
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Verifying all required
conditions
1. Assume that a random
sample of 10 differences is
selected from all starting
salary differences between
recent college graduate
males and females.
2. All starting salary
differences between recent
college graduate males and
females has a distribution
that is approximately
normal.
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95% confidence interval for = is
Summary statistics
Column
Mean
Std. Dev.
Diff
10
400
434.6135
= 10 1 = 9
2 = .025 = 2.262
sd
434 .6135
xd t
400 2.262
nd
10
2
(89.0962 , 710 .9038 )
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Interpretation
= 1 2 .
Therefore, we are 95% confident
that the true mean difference
between the starting salaries of
male and female recent college
graduates falls between $89.10
and $710.90.
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Hypotheses Test for Paired Difference

for = 1 2 (small samples)
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis
0 : = 0
: < 0
: > 0
: 0
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Test
We will use small single-sample -test for paired
data.
Required conditions
1. A random sample of differences is selected from
the target population differences.
2. The population of differences has a distribution
that is approximately normal.
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Rejection Region
> if upper tailed test (or : > 0 )
< if lower tailed test (or : < 0 )

>
or <
if two-tailed test (or : 0 )
1
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If the calculated value of the proposed test statistic
belongs to the rejection region, we reject 0 ;
otherwise we fail to reject 0 .
Write the conclusion in the context.
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Finding -Values for a Test

Upper-tailed test
1.
a.
a.
: < 0
Two-tailed test
3.
= ( > )
: > 0
Lower-tailed test
2.
a.
: 0
= ( < )
= 2 ( > | |)
1
Decision Rule
If < , we reject 0
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Example: Tongue Twisters
Assume that a random sample of

21 differences of reading response
times between the tongue twister
group and the control group was
selected for the reading
experiment.
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1 = the mean reading response times for the tongue
twister group
2 = the mean reading response times for the control group
Parameter of Interest: d = 1- 2
Hypotheses
Null Hypothesis
0 : = 0
: 0
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Test
We will use t-test for paired data.
Required conditions
1. We are told that the sample was selected randomly.
2. Assume that the difference of reading response times
between the tongue twister group and the control group
has a normal distribution.
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= .05

.25 0
t
1.47
.78
21
p-value
= 2 > 1.47
= 2 > .05
> .10
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Since p-value > , we fail to reject 0 .

At 5% level of significance, we do have sufficient
evidence to say that the mean reading response
times between the tongue twister group and the
control group are the same.
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Week 14: Chapter 9.1-9.

Identifying the Target Parameter

Comparing Two Population Means

Sampling Distribution for (x1 x2 )

If the two samples are independent, the standard

The Sampling Distribution for (x1 x2 )

Large Sample CI for 1 2

100(1 )% confidence interval for 1 2 is:

Conditions Required for Valid Large-Sampling

Example: College Retention

Standard Deviation: 9.55

Standard Deviation: 9.88

What does a 95% confidence

Example: College Retention

1 = the mean retention for first-year students at private

2 = the mean retention for first-year students at public

The parameter of interest is 1 2 , the mean difference

Example: College Retention

2. Samples are large.

Example: College Retention

95% confidence interval for 1 2 is:

Example: College Retention

Using this estimation procedure over and over again for

Therefore, we are 95% confident that the mean retention

Comparing Means from Two

Comparing Means from Two

Comparing Means from Two

> if lower tailed test (or : 1 2 < 0 )

Calculation of proposed test statistic

Comparing Means from Two

Making a Decision Using -Value

Example: College Retention 2

Standard Deviation: 9.55

Standard Deviation: 9.88

Test the hypothesis that there is no significant

Example: College Retention 2

Example: College Retention 2

Verifying required conditions

Example: College Retention 2

Calculation of test statistic

(78.17 84) 0 5.83

Example: College Retention 2

Example: College Retention 2

Decision and Conclusion

Week 14: Chapter 9.2 (cont.)

Small Sample Confidence Interval for

Small Sample CI for 1-2

100(1-)% confidence interval for 1-2 is:

Example: Teaching Reading

Example: Teaching Reading

1 2 = the mean difference of

Example: Teaching Reading

Example: Teaching Reading

Example: Teaching Reading

(n1 1) s12 (n2 1) s22

Example: Teaching Reading

Example: Teaching Reading

Example: Teaching Reading

Comparing Means from Two

Comparing Means from Two

Comparing Means from Two

> if upper tailed test (or : 1 2 > 0 )

Calculation of test statistic

Comparing Means from Two