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Study Tip:

Music

Can enhance learning for some


Be a distraction for others
Find what works for you!

PAGE 124

CHANCE &
DATA

CHANCE & DATA


DEMONSTRATE
UNDERSTANDING OF
CHANCE AND DATA
4 CREDITS (91037)

THE SKILLS YOU NEED TO KNOW:


GRAPHING
INTRODUCTION

p 126

There are five different types of graph you


need to be able to read:
1. Scatter graph
Look for trend lines and outliers
2. Times series
Look for a trend over time
3. Box and whisker plot
Look for median and spread
4. Dot Plot
Look for median, spread & outliers
5. Histogram/Bar graph
Look to read values

PROBABILITY

p 136

1. Probability is a measure of the

likelihood or chance of an event


occurring.
2. Events have a probability between 0
and 1 (0 is impossible, 1 is certain)
3. Probability of an event E is written P(E)
4. There are two ways of measuring
probability:
Theoretical Calculations
Experimentally, using the proportion
of times the event occurs. The experimental probability of an event E is:

Number of times E occurs


P(E) =
Total number of events

Note: Problems may rely


on knowledge from earlier
chance and data sections.

GRAPHING ANALYSIS p 129


Each time you should follow the same
pattern in your explanation:
1. Problem - Define or list the problems/
issues in what you have read
2. Explain yourself, using your
understanding of statistics (this could
be mean, median, mode etc.). Give
definitions as well as pros and cons
3. Improve - Discuss how the situation
could be improved, which assumptions
to change, or under which conditions
their assumptions would be correct

MULTI LEVEL
PROBABILITY

p 139

This is when more than one event occurs


Addition Law
Probability of E OR F = P(E) + P(F)
Multiplication Law
Probability of E AND F = P(E) P(F)
Probability Trees
A tool for working out probabilities
Multiply along branches
Probabilities of branches from the
same point add to 1

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS p 144

1. Problem - Make a statement about

whether the PROBABILITY is correct


2. Explain how you worked out the correct
answer by showing all working and
giving reasons
3. Improve - Give any improvements and
list possible circumstances where the
situation could have been correct

PAGE 125

GRAPHING INTRODUCTION
SUMMARY

There are five different types of graph you need to be able to read:
1. Scatter graph (look for trend line
2. Times series (look for a trend over
and outliers)
time)

3. Box and whisker plot (look for


median and spread)

4. Dot Plot (look out for median, spread


and outliers)

5. Histogram/Bar graph (look to read


values)

For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.learncoach.co.nz

NCEA QUESTIONS

1.

Tuahus grandfather told him that a persons armspan is often the same as their height (your armspan is the distance from the fingertips of your left
hand to the fingertips of your right hand, when
your arms are stretched out).
Tuahu wondered if this was true. He collected
measurements from 100 randomly selected year
10 boys and girls. He drew a scattergraph of the
results. He added a line of best fit to the graph. The
results are shown on the graph below and some
statistics are listed in the table to the right.
a. What is the height of the tallest person on the
graph?
b. What is the height of the person with the
smallest arm-span?
c. How many people have an arm-span between
120 and 135 cm?

PAGE 126

Statistics

Height

Arm-span

mean
minimum
lower quartile
median
upper quartile
maximum
range
inter-quartile range

166
105
160
165
173
201
96
13

162
60
157
165
171
208
148
14

CHANCE & DATA

PRACTICE QUESTIONS

2.

The graphs below show the monthly average


minimum and maximum temperatures for both
Rome and Nairobi for three years from 2007-9.

4.

Pete wanted to set up a tomato growing business.


He had 2 possible locations with different soil types
and slightly different climates. He decided to do a
1 year trial to see which site produced the higher
yield. He set up 24 rows of plants at each site and
over the year measured the weight of the tomatoes
he harvested. Give the approximate range of
weights for each site.

5.

A business owner wants to compare the Saturday


traffic with the Sunday traffic to her website.

a. Which city has the smallest yearly fluctuations

and what is the difference (for the maximum


temperature).
b. For each year in Rome state the hottest month.
c. Which city has the largest difference between
its highest maximum and lowest minimum and
what is it.

3.

a. Give the min and max values for Saturday and

A group of year 9 students and a group of year 13


students were shown a page with 72 dots on it for
three seconds. They were then asked to guess how
many dots they saw. The results are shown below:

for Sunday.

b. Use the trend lines to determine which day has


c.
6.

Year 13

Year 9

51.8

57.8

Median

51

50

Mode

45

48

Range

55

131

Minimum

28

28

Lower quartile

45

48

Upper quartile

Mean

a. For

60.5

55

Maximum

83

159

Number Surveyed

20

27

year 9 there were 3 outliers, give their


approximate values.
b. In this situation, which measure of average
best represents the data and give a reason.
c. Give the interquartile range for both year
groups.

the greatest increase in traffic?


Give details about any outliers that can be seen
in the graph above (week and values).

A survey of attendance of students at a movie


theatre is carried out on Mondays and Tuesdays
over several months.

a. Which day of the week did the movie theatre


have their maximum number of students
attend over the survey period?
b. Which day of the week had the fewest students
ever attend over the survey period?
c. What is the approximate median number of
patrons on Day 1
d. Tuesday is the night with the greatest variability
in the number of patrons. Is Tuesday Day 1 or
Day 2 (give reasons)?

PAGE 127

ANSWERS

4.

NCEA

1. a. Height

of the tallest person on the graph


= 201 cm
(Achieved)
b. Height of the person with the smallest arm
span = 160 cm
(Achieved)
c. Number of people with arm-span between 120
and 135 cm = 2
(Achieved)

PRACTICE
2.

3.

(Achieved)

c.

(Achieved)
(Achieved)

08: July
09: July/August (same)
Rome = 27- 4 = 23 (1)

(Achieved)

5. a. Saturday: Min 0, Max 7000.

Sunday : Min 2250, Max 9300. (All within 500)



(Achieved)
b. Sunday
(Achieved)
c. Week 6: Saturday had 0 visitors
Week 9: Saturday had 7000 and Sunday 9300
visitors.
(Achieved)

6.

a. Nairobi: 26 - 21 = 5
b. 07: August

Site A: 6 - 4 = 2 kg
Site B: 9 - 2 = 6 -7 kg

a. Day 2
b. Day 2
c. 325
d. Day 2 - This is because

(Achieved)
(Achieved)
(Achieved)
it has the largest
inter-quartile range and the longest whiskers.

(Achieved)

a. 100, 110 and 160.


(Achieved)
b. Median - the mode never is and in this situation
c.

the outliers pull up the mean.


Year 9: 55 - 48 = 7
Year 13: 60.5 - 45 = 15.5

(Achieved)
(Achieved)

Study Tip:

Study Groups
Can help with exchange of ideas and with
motivation.
More isnt always merrier.
The larger the study group, the more likely you are to get distracted.
Small study groups (up to 4) work better.

PAGE 128

CHANCE & DATA

GRAPHING ANALYSIS
SUMMARY
Each time you should follow the same pattern in your explanation:
1. Problem - Define or list the problems/issues in what you have read (because there will be
problems!)
2. Explain yourself, using your understanding of statistics (this could be mean, median, mode,
probability calculations, range, upper/lower quartile, inter-quartile range etc.). Give definitions
as well as pros and cons.
3. Improve - Discuss how you could improve the situation, which assumptions need to change,
or under which conditions their assumptions
would be correct.
For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.learncoach.co.nz

OLD NCEA QUESTIONS

1.

Richard wants to move overseas to a warmer city.


He would like to move to either Rome or Nairobi.
The graphs below show the monthly average,
minimum and maximum temperatures in each city
for three years from 2007 to 2009.
Richard decides to move to Rome because he
thinks:
The temperature in Rome is higher than the
temperature in Nairobi, so Rome is warmer.
The maximum temperature in Rome peaks
every year, which is more pleasant to live in.
The temperature in Rome is less variable over a
year, so this is more pleasant.
The temperature appears to be rising in Rome,
so it will get warmer in future.
There is less difference between the maximum
and minimum temperature in Rome, so it will
be more comfortable.
Use the graphs given below to answer each of
questions (a) to (f). You do not need to explain why
the climate features happen.

a. Is

Richard correct to believe that the


temperature in Rome is higher than the
temperature in Nairobi, so Rome is warmer?
Justify your answer using the graphs.
b. Comment on how the maximum and minimum
temperatures in the two cities vary over a year.
c. Richard has been told that both the maximum
and minimum temperatures vary less in Rome
than they do in Nairobi. Do the graphs support
this? Justify your answer.
d. Richard thinks that the temperature appears
to be rising in Rome, so it will get warmer in
the future. Do you agree? Justify your answer,
using the graphs.
e. Is Richard correct to say that the difference
between the maximum and minimum
temperature is less in Rome? Justify your
answer using the graphs.
f. Richard wants to live somewhere warm.
Should he choose Rome or Nairobi?
Justify your answer by referring to the graphs.
Discuss any limitations in the data, or any other
research you would need to do before you
could make a valid decision.

PAGE 129

2.

In an investigation Melanie found that year nine


students can estimate the number of dots on a
page more accurately than year 13 students.
Melanie selected ONE year 9 class and ONE year 13
class from her school to take part in her experiment.
She held up a page with 72 dots drawn on it and
allowed the students 3 seconds to look at the page.
Each student wrote down how many dots they
thought were on the page.
Melanie then collected the guesses and analysed
the data.
Using the results from my experiment I can conclude
that year 9 students are better at estimating the
number of dots because the mean guess for year
9 students is closer to the actual number of dots,
Melanie says.
The guesses the students made are illustrated by
the graph below.

3.

Tuahus grandfather told him that a persons armspan is often the same as their height (your armspan is the distance from the fingertips of your left
hand to the fingertips of your right hand, when
your arms are stretched out).
Tuahu wondered if this was true. He collected
measurements from 100 randomly selected year
10 boys and girls. He drew a scattergraph of the
results. He added a line of best fit to the graph. The
results are shown on the graph below and some
statistics are listed in the table below.

Statistics

Evaluate the report about Melanies investigation.


Make at least FOUR evaluative statements about
what Melanie did and what she concluded from her
investigation.
In your answer, you could consider:
The data accuracy, including the data collection
method
The data display and analysis
The interpretation of the data
If the claim is sensible.
Additional Resources:

Year 13

Year 9

51.8

57.8

Median

51

50

Mode

45

48

Range

55

131

Minimum

28

28

Lower quartile

45

48

Upper quartile

60.5

55

Maximum

83

159

Number Surveyed

20

27

Mean

PAGE 130

Height

Arm-span

mean

166

162

minimum

105

60

lower quartile

160

157

median

165

165

upper quartile

173

171

maximum

201

208

range

96

148

inter-quartile range

13

14

a. Why was a scattergraph appropriate to show


the data Tuahu had collected?

b. There are some points on the graph that seem

c.

to be unlikely measurements for a year 10


student.
Give the height and arm-span for THREE points
that seem unlikely. Explain why you think
they are unlikely measurements for a year 10
student.
Tuahu concludes from his graph that the
statement made by his grandfather is correct:
on average, a persons arm-span is the same as
their height.
Is Tuahus conclusion valid?
You should give at least TWO reasons for your
answer

CHANCE & DATA

PRACTICE QUESTIONS

4.

A local cinema wants to increase the number of


customers by offering a Students Half Price night.
This cinema will offer the deal on the night where
the least number of people attend. Therefore,
the cinema needs to decide whether to offer the
deal on day 1 or day 2. So it carries out a survey
of attendance of students on these two days over
several months. The results are shown below:

From the box and whisker plot the cinema decided


to have the Students Half Price night on Day 1,
because day 1 had a lower maximum and a lower
upper-quartile. Evaluate their choice, commenting
on:

The accuracy of their conclusions

The appropriateness of the data display

If their claim is sensible

5.

Pete wanted to set up a tomato growing business.


He had 2 possible locations with different soil types
and different climates. He decided to do a 1 year
trial to see which site produced the higher yield.
He set up 24 rows of plants at each site and over
the season measured the weight of the tomatoes
he harvested.
Using the data and graph below, answer the
following questions, justifying your answer using
the data and graph.
a. Which site should Pete chose If he wants a
consistent yield from his crop?
b. If Pete wants the highest yield possible, which
site should he chose?
c. Pete has concluded he should choose Site
A. Discuss this using the given data. Include
limitations of the data in your discussion.

Average Yield for Site A = 5.0kg, Site B = 6.1kg

6.

A business owner wants to compare the Saturday


traffic with the Sunday traffic to her website . She is
also hoping that traffic to her website is increasing.
a. Give possible explanations for any outliers
b. Using the graph, write a short report for her.
Include:
Trends for both days
Spread for both days
Outliers

7.

Riverflow for the past hundred years for a river in


New Zealand was obtained and a box and whisker
plot created for each month.

a. Why are the upper whiskers much longer than


the lower whiskers?

b. The local council are unsure whether or not

they need to do more flood protection work.


Currently, river flows over 650 cumecs (cubic
metres per second) cause minor flooding. At
750 cumecs stop banks are breached and
hundreds of houses are flooded. Give reasons
for your recommendations. Include in your
report:
The likelihood of either flood event
Any limitations of the data
c. The river is also used for the town water supply.
If water flow ever gets below 20 cumecs the
town will get heavily fined if they keep drawing
water. Do they need to look at alternative
water supplies? Justify your answer. You may
like to consider both:
River flow issues
Water use issues (population, water use per
person, etc.)
Any other areas the council should look into

PAGE 131

ANSWERS

e. Richard

NCEA

is correct in his claim. Overall, the


vertical distance between Romes line graphs
(typically around 10C) is smaller than the
vertical distance between Nairobis line graphs
(typically around 13C).
(Merit)
If Richard wants to live somewhere warm, he
should choose Nairobi. For approximately half
the year, Nairobis average temperatures are
warmer than Romes average temperatures.
Also, Nairobis average temperatures vary
much less so it would feel warmer all year
round, whereas Rome would feel much colder
during certain months of the year (December
to February).
However, the graphs show only monthly
averages. It would be sensible for Richard to
look at some daily temperature data to see if
there are any significant deviations from the
monthly averages.
There are other factors that influence how
a climate feels, such as humidity, rainfall and
wind. It would be sensible for Richard to
investigate some of these other factors before
making his decision.
(Excellence)

1. a. Problem: It is not correct for Richard to believe

that the temperature in Rome is higher than


the temperature in Nairobi.
Explain: Looking at the graphs, Nairobis
average maximum temperatures never go
below 20C while Romes average maximum
temperatures fall below 20C for approximately
half the year.
Similarly,
Nairobis
average
minimum
temperatures never go below 10C, while
Romes average minimum temperatures fall
below 10C for approximately half the year.
So for approximately half of the year, Rome is
colder than Nairobi.
(Merit)
b. Problem: The average maximum temperatures
in Rome vary from low teens in January each
year to high 20s in July/August each year.
The average maximum temperatures in Nairobi
vary from low 20s in July/August each year
to high 20s in February each year. So there is
greater variation in the maximum temperatures
in Rome than there is in Nairobi.
Explain: The average minimum temperatures
in Rome vary from single digits in January each
year to high teens in July/August each year.
The average minimum temperatures in Nairobi
remain in the low teens all year. So there is
greater variation in the minimum temperatures
in Rome than there is in Nairobi.
Improvements: Rome is not always warmer,
only at particular times of the year. The smooth,
pronounced waves formed by Romes line
graphs indicate a steady rise and fall in average
temperatures over a year with peaks around
July and troughs around January. Nairobis
line graphs show less variation in temperature
over a year, but also more fluctuation over a
year there are small peaks around February
and small troughs around July. There is also a
smaller peak around October and a smaller
trough around November/December.

(Excellence)
c. The graphs do not support what Richard has
been told. In fact, the bigger waves in Romes
line graphs indicate that both the maximum
and minimum temperatures vary more in
Rome than they do in Nairobi.

(Achieved)
d. There is no evidence to support rising
temperatures in Rome. The line graphs show
regular waves over year-long periods and there
is no upward trend to the graphs.

(Merit)

PAGE 132

2.

Problem: Melanies claim that Year 9s are better


than Year 13s at guessing the number of dots is not
a sensible one.
Explain: She has made this claim because the Yr 9
mean is closer to the actual number of dots than
the Yr 13. However because of Year 9s 3 outliers,
the median is the best measure of average. The
Year 13 median is 51 and Year 9 is 50, so they
are very similar. The Year 9s guesses are more
consistent, with the Inter-quartile range for Yr 9
being 7 (55 - 48). whereas for Year 13 it is 15.5 (60.5
- 45) but greater consistency in guessing does not
mean greater accuracy.
The sample size for each is very small and only
carried out in one class, in one school.
Improvements: Melanie needs to carry out her
investigations in a range of classes and schools to
make her study more valid.
The data collection method needs to be free of
biases such as students being able to discuss their
guesses among themselves during answering and
knowing other students guesses before answering.

(Excellence)

3. a. A

scattergraph is used to display bivariate


data. It allows us to plot points that display
both variables in the same graph and thereby
determine whether or not there is a relationship
(correlation) between the two variables. Since
Tuahu has collected data with two variables
(height and armspan), a scattergraph is an
appropriate way to display his data.

(Excellence)

CHANCE & DATA


b. There are three points on the scattergraph that

appear to be unlikely measurements:


(105,160) it is unlikely that someone with a
height of 105 cm would have an arm-span as
long as 160 cm;
(160,60) it is unlikely that someone with a
height of 160 cm would have an arm-span as
short as 60 cm;
(173,80) it is unlikely that someone with a
height of 173 cm would have an arm-span as
short as 80 cm;
(Merit - 2 correct)
c. Tuahus conclusion is valid because
There is a line of best fit, which suggests a
trend of a persons arm-span being the same
as their height.
Most of the points are close to the line of
best fit.
However, there are a number of outliers with
unlikely measurements for a Year 10 student,
so further investigation into the validity of
Tuahus data collection would be sensible.

(Excellence)

PRACTICE
4.

Problem: Their choice of Day 1 is not sensible.


Explain: Day 1 does have the lower maximum and
upper quartile, but also has higher median, higher
lower quartile and higher minimum.
Day 2s lower minimum, lower quartile and median
suggest it would be beneficial to run the promotion
on Day 2.
Day 2 has much greater variation in number of
customers attending as shown by higher maximum,
lower minimum and larger lower and upper
quartiles suggesting students may be more likely to
be persuaded to come out on Day 2 by half price
tickets.
Improvements: However, we do not know which
months the survey was carried out over. It may
have included the 3 month student holidays when
either the students may leave the town or may
be working and have more money to attend the
movies. From the box and whisker plot neither
trends nor outliers can be seen.
Presenting the survey data in another form (such
as a time series or dot plot) may give more useful
information.
(Excellence)

5. a. Pete should use Site A if he wants consistent

yield. From the graph it can be seen that for


Site A the difference between the highest and
lowest yield is about 2kg, whereas for Site B the
yield difference between highest and lowest is
about 6.5kg.
(Merit)
b. Since the average yield for site A is 5.0kg and
for site B is 6.1kg, Pete should choose Site B for
highest yield.
(Achieved)

c.

If Pete wants consistent yield, then Site A


appears to be the better option. Although the
overall yield from Site B is higher, it gives such
varying yields from each plant (6.5kg) that Pete
may be concerned about what will happen
under different weather patterns other years.
His results were only from 1 summer so that
may have been a particularly wet or dry, sunny
or cloudy, windy or still summer. The plant
quality (even in the same variety) may vary
from year to year and different tomato plant
varieties may give different results. Testing over
a few summers with different plant varieties
would give a more accurate picture.

(Excellence)

6. a. The weekend with Saturday maximum of 7000

and the Sunday maximum of 9300 are both


high outliers. Reasons for that could be:
The website has advertised special
deals
It is just before Christmas
The weather is bad meaning people are
more likely to be inside and going on
the internet
A Saturday low outlier of just above zero
could be caused by:
A special Saturday event or
unexpectedly good weather meaning
people are outside
The website being down or internet
problems meaning people are unable
to access the site.
(Merit)
b. Sunday traffic is generally heavier than Saturday
as can be seen by a higher Sunday trendline.
Saturday traffic has a wider spread than Sunday
as can be seen by the distance of each point
from the trendline.
Saturday traffic is increasing slightly as can be
seen by the trendline rising from an average of
2000 hits per Saturday to just over 3500.
Sunday traffic is increasing more quickly
than Saturdays. This is shown by a steeper
trendline. Average traffic has increased from
just over 3000 hits to about 6800.

(Excellence)

7. a. With river flow there is a minimum flow rate


(0) but no maximum rate. Over 100 years there
would have been many floods of various sizes
which would account for the large whiskers on
the upper part of the box and whisker plot.

(Merit)

PAGE 133

b. Problem: The council do not need to do more

flood protection work.


Explain: Over the last one hundred years river
flow has never gone above 750 cumecs. So it
would not make economic sense to carry out
flood protection work to prevent a 750 cumec
flood.
Over the one hundred year period 3 months
of the year have had flows of around 650 or
above and months 1 and 12 have had flows of
700 cumecs at least once..
Improvements: From box and whisker plots it
is not possible to tell how frequently events
(such as river flow reaching 700 cumecs) occur.
The council needs to look at the data presented
in another form that will give a more accurate
indication of the frequency of the river flows
reaching 650 cumecs to see if flood protection
work needs to be done to prevent the more
minor flooding that occurs at 650 cumecs.
The council may also want to see the data
presented in a form which gives river flow
trends as factors like removal of bush cover,
farmers using water for irrigation upstream and
climate change may be causing changes in river
flow over time. They also need to check out
the cost of flood protection work in relation to
the cost of a flood.
(Excellence)

PAGE 134

c.

Problem: The council does not need to look at


alternative water supplies.
Explain: Over the last one hundred years, in
only one month (Month 3) has the river flow
gone below 20 cumecs but like (b) above, it is
not possible to tell the frequency of this event.
Months 2, 4 and 9s lowest flows are getting
close to 20 cumecs.
Improvements: To get a better idea of how
to progress the council needs to get the data
presented in a different form. Then they can
get a more accurate indication of the frequency
of the river flow dropping below 20 cumecs.
The data also needs to be presented in a form
that enables the trend in river flow to be seen
and trends in population of the area and water
use per person need to be investigated.
If the population or water use per person has an
upward trend or the river flow has a downward
trend, this would increase the overall water use
and thus lower the river making it necessary to
look at other water sources.

(Excellence)

CHANCE & DATA

Study Tip:

Understand NCEA
You are sitting NCEA so:
UNDERSTAND the marking system
Each question is marked out of 8 so attempt all three questions in each topic.
You can get up to 4 marks with Achieved parts. Merit parts
give 5 - 6 marks and Excellence gives 7 - 8.
If you are aiming for Excellence, do the Excellence parts of the
question first. This gives you the full 7 - 8 marks straight away
for each question. Easier parts of the question do not give you
any extra marks (but they are a safety net if youve made a
mistake)

PAGE 135

PROBABILITY
SUMMARY

Probability is a measure of the likelihood or chance of an event occurring


Events have a probability between 0 and 1 (0 is impossible, 1 is certain)
Probability of an event E is written P(E)
There are two ways of measuring probability:
Theoretical Calculations
Experimentally, using the proportion of times the event occurs

Number of times E occurs


Total
of events
For a complete tutorial
on number
this topic visit
www.learncoach.co.nz

The experimental probability of an event E is P(E) =

OLD NCEA QUESTIONS

1.

Alices local supermarket is running a competition.


On the back of each docket is printed one of the
letters of the word ANKARA, a city in Turkey.
If Alice can collect the six letters needed to spell
Ankara, she will go in the draw for a holiday to
Turkey.
a. On each of the 5 weekdays for 5 weeks Alice
finds a discarded docket as she passes the
supermarket.
In the order that she collects them, the letters
collected are:

NKKRR NAKAR NNAKK


NRNAA AKKRR

i. Complete the table to summarise her data:


Letter

Frequency

A
K
N

ii. Using her data, what is the probability of

Alice getting a K on the next docket?


iii. How valid is this probability? Give at least 2
statistical reasons for your answer.
Alice wonders how many dockets she would have
to collect, on average, to be able to spell the word
ANKARA.
b. Using her collection of dockets in (a), how
many dockets did Alice collect before she had
the whole word of ANKARA?

PAGE 136

c.

Alice realises that it will take too long to find an


answer by collecting actual dockets. Instead, she
takes a dice and puts the six letters of A, N, K, A, R,
A on it.
Alice wants to find out, on average, how many times
she must roll the dice to spell the word ANKARA.
She rolls the dice and whatever letter is on top, she
imagines is the letter she has found on the back of a
docket.
Once she has all the letters she needs to spell Ankara,
she begins again.
She stops her experiment when she has spelt the
word Ankara 10 times.
R, K, N, A, A, K, K, K, A
A, A, N, A, R, A, K
A, N, N, K, A, N, R, A
K, A, K, K, R, A, A, A, N
R, A, N, A, A, R, A, K
N, A, R, R, A, A, A, K
A, A, A, A, R, A, R, A, N, R, A, A, A, A, R, A, A, N, R, N, A, K
N, K, A, A, N, A, A, N, A, K, N, A, R
N, K, A, N, N, A, N, A, A, R
A, A, K, A, K, A, N, N, A, R

Alice then uses her results to find out how many


dockets she needed to spell the whole word of
ANKARA.
Her results are: 9, 7, 8, 9, 8, 8, 22, 13, 10, 10
i. Using Alices data, give Alice an answer to her
question:
How many dockets would she have to collect,
on average, to be able to spell the word
ANKARA?
Give at least TWO averages.
ii. Explain which average you would suggest Alice
uses and why.
iii. The supermarket says that each letter, A, N, K
and R, is equally likely to be found.
Explain why Alices experiment is not valid.

CHANCE & DATA


2.

There are 45 plants in flower in Annes garden.


10 of the plants have blue flowers, and 11 of the
plants have white flowers.
A plant is chosen at random from Annes garden.
a. What is the probability that it has neither blue
flowers nor white flowers?
b. The heights of the 45 plants in Annes garden
were measured 3 weeks after planting.
The heights were plotted on the histogram.

Regular Exercise
No Regular Exercise

a. Find

4.

A plant is chosen at random from Annes garden


3 weeks after planting.
What is the probability that the plant chosen is
less than 12 cm high?

Three different airlines fly from Christchurch to


different destinations in New Zealand each week,
as shown in the table below.
Flights are chosen at random from the table below
and awarded to winners of a competition.
Number of flights to each destination

Under 50

6.

Draw
2
1
4

The table shows results for Southern High from the


regional interschool sports meeting
Track
Field
Swimming
Total

Mountain Air

12

17

Blue Skys

15

10

TOTAL

140

3rd) is in swimming?

8. a. Using the data below, what is the probability

that someone from Waiputa passed their


restricted license at age 18?
b. What is the probability that a girl from Waiputa
passed her Restricted license at age 17?
Age at which Restricted Driving License is Passed in
Waiputa:

Games
31
14

the game?
b. What is the probability that the result was a
loss for Eastern Rugby Club?

2nd
8
12
8
28

b. What is the probability that a place (1st, 2nd or

60

1st
13
3
10
26

16

her flight is to Queenstown?


wins a flight to Auckland. What is the
probability that her flight is with FlyNZ?

a. What is the probability that it was calm during

7.

21

b. Jan

Eastern Rugby Club annually play United for the


Magpie Trophy. Over the last 60 years Eastern have
recorded the wind strength if they won or drew the
game
Win
14
13
2

34

Over 50

A new anti acne cream was undergoing trials. It was


found that 3750 of the 5000 trialists had significant
improvement in their acne. What is the probability
the cream will work.

Wind
Gale or above
Moderate
Calm
Total

Fly NZ

Total

PRACTICE QUESTIONS

5.

Auckland Queenstown Mt Cook Rotorua

a. Anne wins a flight. What is the probability that

A health survey asked a group of 220 adults about


their age and levels of exercise.
The table shows some of the data from the survey.
Age

38
22

the probability that an adult picked at


random from the whole group is 50 years or
older, and does no regular exercise.
b. From the group of adults 50 years or older, a
person was picked at random.
What is the probability that this person
exercised regularly?

Airline

3.

98
62

3rd
17
3
2
22

Total
38
25
13
76

a. What is the probability that a 1st place is in the

9.

Age

17

18

19

20

Over 20 Total

Boys

109

89

22

49

278

Girls

41

86

42

32

25

226

Total

150

175

64

81

34

504

During youth week at Waipua College every time


a student was observed doing something good
the student was given one of the letters from the
word Waipua. They received a prize once they
spelt Waipua. Each letter was equally likely to be
received.
a. What is the probability of a student receiving a
card with a vowel (A, E, I, O, U) on it
b. Callum has already received a P, U,U, P and A.
What is the probability that the next letter he
receives is one he needs?

field?

PAGE 137

ANSWERS

22
1
3. a. =
P =
= 10%

NCEA

220

1. a.
i.
Letter

Frequency

(Achieved)

7
= 0.28
25

(Achieved)
iii. Assuming that each letter is equally likely
to be found, the theoretical probability of
getting a K on a randomly selected docket is
1/4 = 0.25
The frequency table in (i) suggests there
is a fairly even distribution of the four
letters despite the small sample, and the
letters printed on previous dockets have
no influence on the letter printed on the
next docket.
Therefore, the experimental probability
calculated in (ii) is close to the theoretical
probability and seems to be valid.

(Excellence)
b. Alice had to collect 13 dockets before she could
spell ANKARA.
(Merit)
9 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 8 + 8 + 22 + 13 + 10 + 10
10
104
=
= 10.4
10
Median of {7,8,8,8,9,9,10,10,13,22} = 9

(Merit)
ii. Alice should use the median because the
mean might have been influenced by the
data entry 22, which seems significantly
higher than all the other data entries and
should be treated as an outlier. The median
ignores this outlier and will provide a more
reliable average.
(Merit)
iii. Alices experiment is not valid because her
dice has A on three of its sides. This gives
a 50% chance of rolling an A and does not
reflect the equal likelihood (25%) of finding
any of the four letters on the dockets.

(Excellence)
Mean =

24 8
2. a. =
P == 0=
.533 53% (Achieved)
45
36
b. =
P =
45

PAGE 138

15
4
= 0=
.8 80%
5


38 19

(Achieved)

P == 0=
.6333 63%
b. =
60

30

4. a. 48 = 0.34 (2dp)

=
ii. P(K on next docket)

c.
i.

10

(Achieved)

PRACTICE
3750
5000

= = 0.75
5. P(CreamWorking)


(Achieved)

6. a. Number of games at where it was calm:


= 60 (14 + 31) = 15

Probability of it being calm at a game:

P(calm)
=

15 1
=
= 0.25
60 4

(Merit)

b. Number of losses:

= 60 (14 + 13 + 2 + 2 + 1 + 4) = 24

Probability of losing:

24 2
=
= 0.4 (Merit)
60 5
3
7. a. P(1st in Field)
= = 0.12 (Achieved)
26
13
b. P(Swimming)
= = 0.17 (Achieved)
76
P(loose)
=

175 25
8. a. P(Passed at 18)
= =
= 0.35
504

72

(Achieved)

41
17) = 0.18
b. P(Girl Passed at =
226

(Achieved)

9. a. P(Vowel) = P(A) + P(I) + P(U)


=

1 1 1 3
+ + = = 0.6 = 60%
5 5 5 5

(Merit)

b. P(W or I or A) = P(W) + P(I) + P(A)


=

1 1 1 3
+ + = = 0.6 = 60%
5 5 5 5


(Achieved)

(Achieved)

140
34
b. = 0.56 (2dp)
61

(Merit)

CHANCE & DATA

MULTI LEVEL PROBABILITY


SUMMARY

This is when more than one event is occurring


Addition Law

Probability of E OR F = P(E) + P(F)
Multiplication Law

Probability of E AND F = P(E) P(F)
Probability Trees
A tool for working out probabilities
Multiply along branches
Probabilities of branches from the same point
add to 1
e.g. Probability of tails then heads: P(TH) = 0.5 0.5

= 0.25

For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.learncoach.co.nz

OLD NCEA QUESTIONS

1.

Harley has a collection of unusual dice, which have


shapes on each side.

Harley has an orange dice which has only s and


some s on its faces.
He rolls this orange dice with the green dice 120
times and records the combinations that show up.
His results are summarised in the table below. (The
order of the shapes does not matter.)

Each dice has 6 faces, and all of the dice are fair.
Harley rolls a blue dice and a green dice 100 times
and records the results. His results are summarised
in the table below.

f.
g.

a. Estimate the probability that on the next roll


he will get:

i. a and a .
ii. ONE and ONE .
b. Estimate the probability that Harley will not get

a on the next roll.


c. Estimate the probability that the blue dice
shows a if the green dice shows a .
d. Estimate the probability that if there are no
s showing, there is a showing.
e. Deduce how many s there are on the green
dice.
Use probability methods to find your answer
and explain your reasoning clearly.

2.

Using a ratio in its simplest form, express the


probability that he gets
.
On the orange dice, what is the most likely
number of faces with a marked on them?
Use probability methods to find your answer
and explain your reasoning clearly.

Nice Flight airline gives away flights from Wellington


as prizes.
Three different destinations are available.
The probability of flights going to each of the
destinations is shown in the table.
Destination

Probability

Greymouth

0.1

Kerikeri

0.4

Queenstown
0.5
John wins two separate prizes with NiceFlight.
All flights are chosen at random according to the
probabilities in the table.
Calculate the probability that John wins flights to
two different destinations

PAGE 139

3.

4.

A cat has four kittens. Assume that each kitten is


equally likely to be a female or a male.
Explain fully and carefully, by finding and comparing
probabilities, which of the following is most likely
for the four kittens:

There are 4 female kittens.

There are 3 female kittens and 1 male kitten.

There are equal numbers of female and male
kittens.

6. a. A research scientist plants eleven seeds in Plot

A and nine seeds in Plot B.


The probability that a seed germinates in Plot A
is 0.7, and in Plot B it is 0.8

At a certain garage the probability of a customer


1
buying diesel is .
9
The other customers all buy petrol.
1
of both diesel and petrol customers pay cash for
5
their fuel.
All others pay by credit card.
Some of the information is shown on the diagram.

Find the probability that a seed chosen at


random germinates.
b. The scientist then plants seeds in Plots D, E and
F in the ratio 8 : 10 : 7
The probability that a seed germinates in Plot D
is 0.7 and in Plot E is 0.8.
This scientist expects 390 seeds to germinate
from the 600 he planted.
What is the probability that a seed in Plot F
germinates?

7.
a. What is the probability that a customer chosen

A circular spinner is divided into two quarters and


one half, with the three sectors labelled with scores
of 10, 20 and 30, as shown in the diagram.

at random bought petrol and paid by credit


card?
b. What is the probability that the next two
customers both bought petrol?

5.

The oil pressure in a vintage car is noted by a


warning light.
We know that the oil pressure is too low 1% of the
time.
If the pressure becomes too low, the light should
come on.
However, the light is not always reliable.
When the oil pressure is too low, the light is on 98%
of the time.
When the oil pressure is okay, the light is on 0.1%
of the time.
Find the probability that the light is giving an
incorrect reading.

PAGE 140

a. Ngaire spins the arrow twice.

What is the probability that the total of the two


scores is 30?
b. Sue is also playing with the spinner.
She spins the arrow twice and adds the two
scores.
She does this 80 times.
How many times would she expect the total to
be at least 40?

CHANCE & DATA

PRACTICE QUESTIONS

8.

Children are running round a playing field.


When the whistle blows, the children have to
freeze.

B
C

11.

Natalie has made 10 batches of


cupcakes for her little brothers
birthday party and decorated them.
There are:

2 choices of icing yellow or
green

2 choices of edible animal decorations spider
or shark

2 choices of sprinkles gold or silver.
A probability tree has been started.

a. What is the chance Mia and Hone are both in


area C as shown in the diagram?

b. What is the probability that both Mia and Hone


are in the same area?

9.

10.

Joseph, Hayley and James have


two coins and toss these to see
who will cook dinner.
Heads = H, Tails = T.
a. If the coins land with 2 heads
up James will cook.
What is the probability of
this?
b. If the coins are:
TT - Hayley will cook
HH - Joseph will cook
H and a T - James will cook
What is the probability one of the boys will
cook?
At a fundraising sausage sizzle you were offered
onions and tomato sauce as extras
It was found 70% had onions and of those 80% has
tomato sauce as well.
Of those who didnt have onions, 40% didnt have
tomato sauce either. A probability tree may help.
a. What is the probability of a randomly chosen
person who bought a sausage having tomato
sauce with it?
b. What is the probability of a randomly chosen
person having a sausage with just one extra
(either sauce or onions)?

a. What

is the probability that any random


cupcake chosen
i. Will have yellow icing and a shark on the
top?
ii. Will have a shark on the top?
b. Natalie runs out of silver sprinkles quite quickly
so the probability of silver sprinkles is only 0.2
i. Troy only eats cupcakes with yellow icing.
What is the probability he gets a cake with a
shark and gold sprinkles?
ii. Mei is scared of spiders and will only
eat cupcakes with sharks. What is the
probability her cupcake is green with gold
sprinkles?

PAGE 141

ANSWERS

NCEA

5.

1. a. 7
.07 7%
i. = 0=

(Achieved)

100
14 + 9 23
=
= 0.23 = 23%
ii.
100 100

(Achieved)
19 + 16 + 7 42
=
= 0.42 = 42%
b.
100
100

(Achieved)
17
c.
(Merit)
= 0.35 (2 dp)
49

17
=
0
=
.
49
49
%
d.

(Merit)
35

e. The results for the

f.
g.

and on the green dice


are almost the same for any symbol on the blue
dice, so it can be said that there are equal
numbers of each of
and
on the green
dice i.e. 3 of each.
(Excellence)
20:120 = 1:6
(Merit)
If there were 3 each of
and
we would
expect the frequencies to be approx 1:2:1.
They are not, and the lowest result for
suggests that is only on 1 or 2 sides.
The shaded row in the table most closely
matches the experimental results.
Options
(No. of each
shape)

Expected Numbers

10

60

50

20

60

40

30

60

30

40

60

20

5
1
50
60
10
Therefore the orange die is most likely to have
four sides with a marked on them.

(Excellence)

2. 2 [0.1 0.4 + 0.1 0.5 + 0.4 0.5] = 0.58


3.

1
P(4 F ) =
16
4
P (3F ) =
16
6
P(2 F ) =
16

(Merit)

(Achieved)

9 5 45
8 8 64
b. P(P) P(P) = 9 9 = 81 (Achieved)

PAGE 142

6. a.

11
9
0.7 + 0.8
20
20
= 0.385 + 0.36 = 0.745 = 75%

P=
OR

P(Plot A) = 11 0.7 = 7.7 (8 plants)


P(Plot B) = 9 0.8 = 7.2 (7 plants)
15
(Merit)
P=
= 0.75 = 75%
20

b. Let g be the germination of plot F.

P(Total) = P(D) + P(E) + P(F)


390 8
10
7
= 0.7 + 0.8 + g
600 25
25
25
0.65 = 0.224 + 0.32 + 0.28 g
0.65 = 0.544 + 0.28 g
0.106 = 0.28 g
0.379 = g

OR

Equal male and female most likely. (Merit)

4. a. P(P) P(CC) = 8 4 = 32

P = 0.01 0.02 + 0.99 0.001


= 0.0002 + 0.00099
(Excellence)
= 0.00119

total seeds seeds germinated


Plot D: 192 0.7 = 134.4 (134)
Plot E: 240 0.8 = 192
Plot F: 168 g = 63.6 (64)
168 g = 63.6

(Excellence)
g = 0.379

CHANCE & DATA


7. a. P(30) = P(1st is 10, 2nd is 20)


+ P(1st is 20, 2nd is



1 1 1 1 2 1

=
= + =

4 4 4 4 16 8



(Merit)

10.
10)

b. P(T 40) = 1 P(total is 20 or 30)

= 1 P(total 20) P(total 30)


1 1 2
= 1
(from a.)
4 4 16
1 2
= 1
16 16
13
=
16
13
Expected No = 80
16

(Excellence)
= 65

PRACTICE
8. a.

P(Hone in C) =

1
2

1
2
P(Both in C) = P(Hone in C) P(Mia in C)
1 1 1
= = = 0.25
2 2 4

(Merit)
b. P(Both in same area) =
P(Both in A) + P(Both in B) + P(Both in C)
1 1 1 1 1 1
= + +
4 4 4 4 2 2
1 1 1 6 3

=
+ + =
= = 0..375 (Merit)
16 16 4 16 8
P(Mia in C) =

9.

a. P(Sauce) = P(O + S) + P(No O + S)

= 0.7 0.8 + 0.3 0.6



= 0.56 + 0.18 = 0.74

(Merit)

b.

P(1 Extra) = P(O + No S) + P(No O + S)


= 0.7 0.2 + 0.3 0.6
= 0.14 + 0.18 = 0.32

(Excellence)

11. a.
i.

P(Yellow & Shark) = P(Yellow ) P(Shark)


= 0.6 0.3 = 0.18

(Merit)
ii. P(Shark) = P(Y & S) + P(G & S)
= 0.18 + 0.4 0.6 = 0.42

(Merit)

b.
i.

P(Shark&Gold) = P(Shark ) P(Gold)


= 0.3 0.8 = 0.24

(Excellence)
ii. P(Green&Gold) = P(Green ) P(Gold)
= 0.4 0.8 = 0.32



(Excellence)

a. Equal possible outcomes are: HH, TT, TH, HT.


1
= 0.25
(Achieved)
4
1
P(TT) = = 0.25
4
P(Boys Cooking) = 1 0.25 = 0.75
P(HH)=

b.

Alternative Method
Boys will cook if result is HH or HT or TH.
1 1 1 3
P(HH or HT or TH) = + + = = 0.75
4 4 4 4

(Merit)

PAGE 143

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
SUMMARY

1.

2.
3.

Problem - Make a Statement about whether the PROBABILITY in the question is correct
(It usually isnt).
Explain how you worked out the correct answer:
Show all working
Give reasons for you working if possible
Improve - Give any improvements that are needed. List any possible circumstances where the
situation could have been correct.
For a complete tutorial on this topic visit www.learncoach.co.nz

OLD NCEA QUESTIONS

1.

Evaluate the claims in the advertisement below.

In your answer, you may find it helpful to comment


on:
What the variables of interest are
The purpose of the advertisement
The question the advertisement is posing
If the claims in the advertisement are valid,
correct and sensible
Any other information that would be helpful.

Evaluate his conclusion by commenting on the


following:
What the relevant variables are
Assumptions Cody is making
If his conclusion is valid
Any other information that would be helpful.

Talia stated Redheads are becoming more


common .
This is because Talia has 5 people in her class with
naturally red hair whereas when her Mum was
growing up there were only 2 in her class and her
Nana never had any.
Evaluate Talias statement by commenting on:
The variables
The assumptions that Talia has made
The nature of the sample (size, randomness)
Any other information that would be helpful

PRACTICE QUESTIONS

2.

Cody sees the advertisement below and concludes


he has 1 in a 1000 chance of winning $1000 worth
of electronics.

3.

PAGE 144

CHANCE & DATA


4.

5.

Zoe wanted to do a tandem skydive for her 16th


birthday. Her father said she couldnt because it
was too dangerous. Zoe found out that 480 people
died on the roads last year in New Zealand and of
those who skydived, 1 person out of 25000 died.
So she told her father she should be allowed to
sky dive because that she had a 1 in 480 chance of
dying during a car ride tomorrow compared to only
1 in 25000 chance of dying in a skydive accident.
Evaluate Zoes statement. Exact calculations are
not required. You may like to comment on

The purpose of her statement

Assumptions or errors Zoe has made about the
risk of her dying in a car accident

Subsets of the national statistics she may be in
and the affect that has on relative risks
Jeremy and Sally decided to create a chance game
for a family reunion. They told all their relatives
that if they can get a total of 12 after two throws
of a dice then they win a lolly. They told everyone
that there was a 1 in 11 chance of winning.
Discuss the claim that Jeremy and Sally made.
You may like to include:

If the claims are valid, correct and sensible

How they may have decided upon the 1 in 11
chance.

Any other information that would be helpful

6.

A supermarket promotion included a scratch card if


you spent $50 or more. There were three panels on
the card, each with a picture of one of four different
fruits. If all three fruits on the scratch card were the
same, a $10 voucher was won. The supermarket
stated Match 3 apples, bananas, oranges or pears
and WIN! 25% chance of winning! Discuss this
promotion.
Include:

The purpose of the advertisement

If the claims in the promotion are valid, correct
and sensible

Any other information that would be helpful.

7.

There was a chance game at a school fair that


you pay to enter. The player first has to spin a
wheel which is split up into 4 quarters each with a
different colour on it: red, blue, green, and yellow.
The player then had to reach into a box with 40
balls (10 of each colour) and pull one out.
The player wins a small prize if the colour spun
matches the colour of the ball. The sign advertising
the game states there is a 1 in 8 chance of winning.
Evaluate the sign and any repercussions on fundraising.

Exam Tip:

Proofreading
Only takes a few minutes
Finds the silly mistakes
Gives you extra marks (especially if your teacher is super-meticulous)
SO many people miss out on Extra Marks by not proof-reading

PAGE 145

ANSWERS

NCEA
1.

4.

Problem: Zoes statement is not true.


Zoe wants to convince her father to allow her to
skydive so the aim of her statements is to persuade
her father.
Explain: There are two errors in Zoes reasoning:
The value of 480 deaths is an annual figure,
not a daily figure. The 480 would need to be
divided by 365 if she was to make it daily.
It is incorrect to use 1 in 480 as the probability
of dying. It is actually 480 deaths per 4 million
people (population of New Zealand).
Improvement: A more realistic probability would
be calculated by multiplying 1 in 365 by 480 in
4,000,000. This ends up giving an probability of
around 1 in 3,000,000.
Zoe could also investigate the sky diving statistics
more thoroughly. It could be that tandem skydivers
or people under 20 or females are more or less
likely than average to have a fatal accident.
Who is driving the car and at what time could
also need to be taken into account. For example
probably getting a ride with her father is lower risk
than if one of her fellow students gives her a ride.
Late at night may be more risky than during the
day.
Even without further investigation of skydiving
statistics and driving habits there is still a much
lower chance of her dying in a car crash when
compared to skydiving.
(Excellence)

5.

Problem: Jeremy and Sallys claim of a


1 in 11 chance of winning is incorrect.
Explain: To get a 12 the player needs to throw two
sixes each of which has a 1 in 6 chance. So to get a
total of 12 there is actually a 1 in 36 chance.
Improvements: They may have reached the 1 in 11
chance by just counting the possible totals (2-12).
Jeremy and Sally should have accounted for the fact
that some totals come up more often than others.
For example, 7 comes up the most often, as there
are 6 different combinations that can make 7.

(Excellence)

6.

Problem: The supermarkets statement is not true.


Explain: The aim of the promotion is to try and
encourage people to shop at that supermarket and
to spend more when they are there. By stating that
there is a 25% chance of winning it encourages
people to shop there and to spend at least $50 to
try and win a $10 voucher.
If the fruits all occur with equal frequency, stating
that there is a 25% chance of winning is incorrect.
There is a 25% chance of getting a particular fruit
on one of the panels but the chance of having the
same fruit on all 3 panels is 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 =
6.25%.
Improvements: Their claim of 25% may be correct if
they have made 25% of the scratch cards specifically
to have three of the same fruits.
(Excellence)

Problem: The chance of getting a yellow circle is


1
actually,
which is only about 8%, not 30% as the
12
ad claims.
Explain: This is because there are 3 types of token
and each comes in 4 colours, making 12 different
tokens in total, only 1 of which is a yellow circle.
Improvements: However, this calculation assumes
that there is the same number of each token, and
colour, being put into the lamburgers so that the
distribution is uniform, which you would expect but
which may not be the case.
OR
It could be that there are actually more yellow
circles in circulation than any other token, so that
there is actually a 30% chance of winning, you
would have to check with the company
OR
Perhaps the 30% applies only to the change of
getting the circle, since this is 33% and may have
been rounded.
(Excellence)

PRACTICE
2.

3.

Problem & Explain: Cody is correct that he has a 1


in a 1000 chance of winning (10/10000). However:

He assumes all 10 prizes are $1000 worth of
electronics.

The purpose of the poster is to sell tickets and
make money.

The value of each prize is not specified, except
to say it has a maximum value of $1000. The
poster also does not say that all the prizes are
electronic goods.
Improvement: Cody should assume that he has a 1
in a 1000 chance of winning a prize. While it could
be that all prizes are $1000 worth of electronics, for
the reasons above, this is unlikely.

(Excellence)
Problem: Talias statement is unlikely to be true.
Explain: For Talias statement to be true the
following needs to be considered:

Were the samples the same size Talias
class size may be bigger than her mothers or
grandmothers.

Were all 3 at school in areas with typical mixes
of nationality for example her grandmother
could have been at school in an area with a high
proportion of Maori pupils.

Was the proportion of redheads similar over
different classes in the school and in different
schools around the country?
Improvements: Talias statement may be true but
she needs to do further investigations of different
classes and schools now and in the time of her
mother and grandmother.
(Excellence)

PAGE 146

CHANCE & DATA


7.

Problem: The sign saying a 1 in 8 chance of winning


is incorrect.
Explain: There is a 1 in 4 chance of getting a
particular colour and its corresponding ball. It does
not matter what colour is spun on the wheel, there
is always a 1 in 4 chance of pulling out a matching
ball. If they have worked out pricing based on
winning 1 in 8 times instead of 1 in 4, this means
their profits wild be lower and they may even loose
money because of the cost of prizes.
Improvements: In addition, the promoters need
to change the advertisement to accurately reflect
the higher chance of winning, meaning potentially
increased numbers of paying participants leading to
increased profits.
(Excellence)

Study Tip:

Rewards
Reward yourself for passing a tough year!
Small achievements (e.g. topping a quiz) also deserve small rewards
Maybe you could remind your parents about this one!

PAGE 147

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