Name: Clairole Marie L.

Quilantang
Course, Year and Section: BSCE IV-A

Rainfall Data in Zamboanga City since 1988-2014

I.

Introduction

A.

Background Context

Rainfall is one of the most important atmospheric phenomena. Heated by the suns radiation,
the ocean and land surface evaporate water, which then moves around with winds in the
atmosphere, condenses to form clouds, and falls back to the Earths surface as rain or snow, with
the flow to oceans via rivers completing the global hydrological cycle. (Simpson et al., 1996)
Rainfall varies from year to year and over decades, and changes in amount, intensity and
frequency affect the environment and society. Steady moderate rains soak into the soil and
benefit plants, while the same amounts of rainfall in a short period of time may cause local
flooding and runoff, leaving soils much drier at the end of the day. (Allen, 2002)
Hydrological extreme events are typically defined as floods and droughts. Floods are
associated with extremes in rainfall while droughts are associated with a lack of precipitation and
often extremely high temperatures that contribute to drying. Floods are often fairly local and
develop on short time scales, while droughts are extensive and develop over months or years.
Both can be mitigated; floods by good drainage systems and drought by irrigation, for instance.
Nonetheless, daily newspaper headlines of floods and droughts reflect the critical importance of
the water cycle, in particular precipitation, in human affairs. (Murnane 2004) Its societal
importance to study rainfall cannot be over stated and vitality for survival of life.
In the Philippines, climate is tropical that it can only be divided into two seasons, the dry and
the rainy season. The only area in the country that is drought prone due to the presence of high
elevation of forested mountains and its geographic location is Zamboanga City. Contrary to that,
the residence of some places in Zamboanga City experienced seasonal flooding. Is it because of
the severe changes or fluctuation of rainfall that the watershed management was unable to
estimate conveniently? Evidence is building that human-induced climate change (global
warming), is changing precipitation and the hydrological cycle, and especially the extremes. This
article first discusses the observed changes and then considers the processes involved and the
conceptual basis for understanding changes in precipitation, floods, and drought, and future
prospects. Climate models have been used as a guide to future changes, but are challenged in
their ability to correctly simulate patterns, seasonal variations, and characteristics of
precipitation, and hence their results must be used with caution. (Kharin et al. 2007, Liepert &
Previdi 2009) So, how to have crucial adaptation in this unnatural variation? Preparation and
planning on the day to day basis of living are influence on the course of action of rainfall.
Rainfall is arguably the meteorological phenomenon that has the greatest impact on human
activity. The people required to be observant and vigilant in the drastic change happening in our
environment.

B.

Problem

This study aims to find out if there are significant changes of the monthly and yearly rainfall
in Zamboanga City for the past 27 years (1988-2014).
C.

Significance

This study provides information to the reader on how the study will contribute and can be
measured by how important a study is. In hydrological cycle, the rainfall let the water return to
Earth. Water is one of our most precious natural resources. Without it, there would be no life on
earth. Hydrology has evolved as a science in response to the need to understand the complex
water system of the earth and help solve water problems.
After analyzing and interpreting the collected rainfall data, it will be used in different aspects
likely, runoff estimation analysis, ground water recharge analysis, water balanced study of
catchments, flood analysis for design of different hydraulic structures (such as the drainage
system and Irrigation system), real time flood forecasting and low flow studies.
D.

Objectives

This study direct towards the objectives of: (1) to illustrate the trendlines and to calculate the
p-value in monthly rainfall (2) to predict the chances of rain or forecasting and to illustrate the
residuals and to calculate p-value in yearly rainfall (3) to describe and explain the smoothing of
rainfall data (4) to calculate the minimum, median, maximum, q1 or 25%, q3 or 75% amount of
rainfall and to distinguish the start, end and length of rainy and dry season.
E.

Limitations.

The very nature of precipitation and the limitations of the observing system make the
quantification of precipitation challenging. Any modelling exercise is an attempt to simulate real
world processes through the use of input data describing physical characteristics of the system, a
set of algorithms to transform input data to output parameters of interest, and simplifying
assumptions to limit the scope of the model. The following aspects of the study imposed limits
on the accuracy of the simulated output and comparisons with the monitored data like rainfall
data analysis. The group will do their best in conducting this study in order to form a
comprehensive decision based on relevant facts.

II.

Methodology

This presents the description of the research method to be used, a description of the place, the
instruments to be used, the procedures and analyzing the data that be gathered.
1.

Data Gathering

The monthly and yearly rainfall data for 27 years (1988-2014), are gathered from the
PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration)

Weather Station Airport Zamboanga City. This is Philippiness national meteorological and
hydrological services (NMHS) provider was used for this study.
2.

Data organizing

The data is formulated in Microsoft excel in order to put things into particular arrangements.
The data analysis used are box plot, line graphs, trendlines, regression analysis (P-value and
residual plot), and smoothing. The data was monthly arranged and the summation of January to
December results for the yearly data since 1988-2014.
Box plots are very useful in graphical comparisons among data sets because they have high
visual impact and are easy to understand. Excel doesnt have a built-in chart type for a box plot,
but the students made it, using a stacked column chart, and error bars. Line graphs are usually
used to show time series data - that is how one or more variables vary over a continuous period
of time. Trendlines are a line that is drawn over pivot highs or under pivot lows to show the
prevailing direction. Regression analysis generates an equation to describe the statistical
relationship between one or more predictor variables and the response variable. Smoothing is a
processing technique typically used to remove noise from the data. (Montgomery, 2014)
The group get the total yearly rainfall by adding the daily precipitation, the rainfall in terms of
total amount of precipitation in a year, the minimum, q1 ,median ,q3 , and the maximum amount
of rainfall in an every month in 27 years from 1988-2014. The total annual rainfall was
calculated by summing all the rainfall amounts of all the months for every year. The minimum
rainfall refers to the minimum amount of rainfall that fell in each month for the past 27 years.
The q1 (quartile 1) refers to the 25% amount of rainfall, the median or the average (50%) amount
of rainfall, q3 (quartile 3) refers to the 75% amount of rainfall that fell in each month for the past
27 years. The seasonal averages or the smoothing analysis were calculated by summing the total
rainfall in a season of 6-month period in a year. The total annual and monthly rainfall was
analyzed in terms of line graph and trend line in figure. Using trend lines we can predict the
amount of rain that can be expected for the upcoming years. The data were also analyzed using
Regression. A regression analysis is an approach that helps us figure out if the changes are
significant that if the p-value of x-variable is less than 0.05 then it has a significant change and if
the p-value of x-variable is more than 0.05 then the change is not significant. But before
regression was used the data was check using residual plots in order to validate the model and
not contain any predictive information. The next analysis used was smoothing, a statistical
technique for removal of short term irregularities in a time-series data to improve the accuracy of
forecasts. It uses moving averages, or fits a curve to the plotted data points on a graph, and is a
much simpler although cruder method than exponential smoothing. The total annual rainfall was
smooth to help us better see patterns and trends. Generally smooth out the irregular roughness to
see a clearer signal. Smoothing doesnt provide us with a model, but it can be a good first step in
describing various components of the series. And the last data analysis used was box plot. A box
and whisker plot is a graphical method of displaying variation in a set of data and are also very
useful when large numbers of observations are involved and when two or more data sets are
being compared. It is a way of summarizing a set of data measured on an interval scale. It is
often used in explanatory data analysis. This type of graph is used to show the shape of the
distribution, its central value, and its variability. The minimum, q1, average or median, q3 and
maximum rainfall amounts were calculated.

III.

Results and Discussions

This chapter discusses the data analysis of the experimentation done by the researchers.
These also include the elucidations and information end results attained and the level
significance of the difference and make a decision for conclusion.
(1) To illustrate the trendlines and to calculate the p-value in monthly rainfall

Figu
re 1.0: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.0073

Figu
re 1.1: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.2077

Figu
re 1.2: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.1398

Figur
e 1.3: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.6330

Figur
e 1.4: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.0667

Figur
e 1.5: linear trendline decreased progressively and p-value = 0.3972

Figur
e 1.6: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.2273

Figur
e 1.7: linear trendline decreased progressively and p-value = 0.5399

Figur
e 1.8: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.4777

Figure 1.9: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.1133

Figur
e 1.10: linear trendline decreased progressively and p-value = 0.2629

Figur
e 1.11: linear trendline increased progressively and p-value = 0.1693

The monthly rainfall data series from January to December during the period (1988-2014) are
examined using time series analysis which is the line graph. The result in figures 1 shows that
over Zamboanga City, the monthly rainfall increased progressively in the months of December to
May, July, September and October and the monthly rainfall decreased progressively in the
months of June, August and November. The trendlines are a visual representation of support and
resistance in any time frame. And monthly p-values are given calculated by regression analysis.

(2) To predict the chances of rain or forecasting and to illustrate the residuals and to calculate pvalue in yearly rainfall

Figure 2.0: linear trendline increased progressively w/ forecast (2024-2031) & p-value = 0.04789

Figure 2.1: randomly dispersed residual plots

In Figure 1.0 that has the equation slope by the linear trendline; it can be forecast given a
future years and get to calculate the amount of rainfall in those upcoming years. A residual plot is
a graph that shows the residuals on the vertical axis and the independent variable on the
horizontal axis. If the points in a residual plot are randomly dispersed around the horizontal axis,

a linear regression model is appropriate for the data; otherwise, a non-linear model is more
appropriate.
(3) To describe and explain the smoothing of rainfall data

Figure 3.0: Smoothing Analysis

Smoothing removes short-term variations, or "noise" to reveal the important underlying

unadulterated form of the data. In the figure 3.0 shows that there is significant increase of rainfall
beginning 1999.
(4) To calculate the minimum, median, maximum, q1 or 25%, q3 or 75% amount of rainfall and
to distinguish the start, end and length of rainy and dry season.

Figu
re 4.0 box plot legend

Fi
gure 4.1: Box Plot of Overall Monthly Rainfall in Zamboanga City for the Past 27 Years

In Figure 4.0 it shows the box plot is a graphical display that the three quartiles, the
minimum, and the maximum of the data on a rectangular box, aligned either horizontally or
vertically. The box encloses the interquartile range with the left (or lower) edge at the first
quartile, q1, and the right (or upper) edge at the third quartile, q3. A line is drawn through the
box at the second quartile (which is the 50th percentile or the median), q2 = x. A line, or whisker,
extends from each end of the box. The lower whisker is a line from the first quartile to the
smallest data point within 1.5 interquartile ranges from the first quartile. The upper whisker is a
line from the third quartile to the largest data point within 1.5 interquartile ranges from the third
quartile. Data farther from the box than the whiskers are plotted as individual points. A point
beyond a whisker, but less than three interquartile ranges from the box edge, is called an outlier.
That simultaneously describes several important features of a data set, such as center, spread and
departure from symmetry.
In Figure 4.1 shows the overall monthly rainfall data series from December to November
during the period (1988-2014) using box plot. That over Zamboanga City, the dry season are on
the months of December to May relating that an amount less than 100mm while wet season are
on the months of June to November relating an amount more than 100mm based on its median.
Zamboanga City has a balance of dry and wet season; wherein the length of dry season is six
months and wet season is also six months. The driest month is January having a median amount
of 38.5mm and the wettest month is October having a median amount of 181.4mm. Maximum
daily rainfall is an important indicator of flash flood hazards and minimum daily rainfall is an
important indicator of drought (El Nio). The month had the most maximum amount of rainfall

of 630.2mm is October while the month had the most minimum amount of rainfall of 0mm is
March.

IV.

CONCLUSION

Based on the results of rainfall data analyzed since 1988-2014 and that if the p-value of xvariable is less than 0.05 then it has a significant change and if the p-value of x-variable is more
than 0.05 then the change is not significant. This present study has revealed to us to that the
amount of rainfall in Zamboanga City is significantly increasing in the total annual data wherein
p-value of 0.04789 is less than 0.05. And the driest month January, the amount of its rainfall is
relatively increased in significant way wherein p-value of 0.04789 is less than 0.05. The amount
of rainfall in Zamboanga City since 1988-2014 is significant changing therefore unable to assure
sustainable progress. Rainfall releases water which is vital for survival of life and basis of all
living processes; hence portentous need to study the monthly and yearly rainfall data that
extreme changes occurred and possible future outcomes will be predicted.

V.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The group would like to express their earnest sincerity of thanks and warmest gratitude to all
the people who made this study possible.
To the Western Mindanao State University, their school that gave the students a favorable
juncture of circumstances to progression this study and is able to present their ideas on class.
To the (PAGASA) Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration for providing complimentary and well-founded information relating to the
substantial data of monthly and yearly rainfall of Zamboanga City since 1988-2014.
To each member of the group and other associates who gave efforts to helped and shared
ideas so that all necessary works to be entirely completed on allocated time.
To their probability and statistics professor, Dr. Jessica Maria Paz C. Casimiro, for giving the
students comments to improve their report and enabled them to achieve good results.
To their loving parents for the continuous support they manifested, financially and for giving
them inspiration to move on.
And finally, to the Almighty Father who inspire them and blessed them with value of
perseverance and determination to pursue this study.
VI.

REFERENCE

[1] PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration)

[2] Montgomery D and Runger G (2014) Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers 6th
Edition
[3] Simpson JC, Kummerow WK, and Adler RF (1996) On the Tropical Rainfall Measuring
Mission (TRMM)
[4] Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic
cycle
[5] Murnane RJ (2004) Climate research and reinsurance
[6] Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC (2007) Changes in temperature and
precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations
[7] Liepert BG, Previdi M (2009) Do models and observations disagree on the rainfall response
to global warming?