New Mega Trends in India

New Mega Trends in India
Macro to Micro Implications to Businesses, People, and Society
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NE81-MT
May 2015
1
Contents
Section
Slide Numbers
Executive Summary
Research Scope, Objectives, and Methodology
27
Mega Trend 1Connectivity and Convergence
34
Mega Trend 2Bricks and Clicks
42
Mega Trend 3Social Trends
55
Mega Trend 4Economic Trends
62
Mega Trend 5Urbanization
71
Mega Trend 6Smart is the New Green with Smart Cities
80
Mega Trend 7Innovating to Zero
83
Mega Trend 8New Business Models
87
Mega Trend 9Future of Infrastructure
94
Mega Trend 10Future of Energy and Resources
101
Mega Trend 11Health, Wellness, and Wellbeing
111
Mega Trend 12Future of Mobility
117
Conclusion
128
Appendix
136
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Executive Summary
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Key Findings
While India will witness a high growth in population on one side, great progress will be witnessed in the
area of connectivity. It is anticipated that around 4 billion devices would be connected in 2025. This will
not only include mobile phones and tablets but also other connected devices, such as smart TVs.
Indias digital economy will explode with the proliferation of devices, and estimates for Indias Internet
economy (as measured by total ICT spending) to be $266 billion in 2020. The Internet economy will
account for nearly 7% of the countrys gross domestic product (GDP).
Online retail will emerge as one of the fastest growing industries in India, with a market potential of
$35.08 billion by 2025 that accounts for nearly 4% of total retail. This growth will compel many retailers
to move from a bricks model to a bricks and clicks model that amalgamates online channels with brick
and mortar stores.
India will emerge as a reliable and affordable satellite launch service provider and manufacturer for the
world. India can deliver a satellite in approximately 28 months, against the global average of 30 months.
By 2020, India will launch 76 satellites, 10 space missions, and 30 launch vehicles.
Mobile apps downloads in India will reach 10 billion apps by 2020. Key mobile-based industries such as
mobile banking and governance in India would benefit as a result, with a consolidated value of $9 billion
by 2020.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Key Findings (continued)
India's GDP will reach $3.4 trillion by 2020, but holds the potential to reach nearly $4 trillion if
investments and manufacturing growth are more aggressive than expected. In the aggressive growth
scenario, India could displace the UK and become the 5th largest economy by 2025 from its current
position as 10th.
India will gradually shift from a services-based economy to an industry-driven economy by 2025 with
increased contribution from industries and the manufacturing sector. Indias manufacturing sector, in
terms of gross value added to GDP (at the current growth rate), could reach $1,149 billion by 2022 and
contribute 25% to GDP.
Maharashtra would account for 15.8% of the country's total GDP, and the top 5 states will account for
45.7% of country's GDP in 2020.
India is expected to become one of the global leaders (top 5) in at least 10 big markets of the future. It
will be the 5th largest exporter in the globe and the largest manufacturer of chemicals. It will be also
become the largest consumer market for luxury goods and technology services, such as direct-to-home
TV and mobile apps.
10
India will become the 3rd largest automotive market by 2025, with nearly 7 million car sales during the
period. It will become the major manufacturing hub for cars in Asia with the likes of Hyundai expanding
manufacturing in India. Three out of 10 two-wheelers will be an electric vehicle.
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Around 38% of the total population (534.8 million) of India will be living in urban regions in 2025 and
cities will account for 80% of India's GDP in 2030. States like Delhi, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh,
Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Gujrat will have urbanization rates over
30%.
12
India will have 3 Mega Cities and 4 Mega Regions by 2025, each with populations over 15 million, and
21 sustainable cities by 2025. A Mega City will have a minimum population of 8 million and will
contribute a GDP of $250 billion in 2025. Indias Mega Cities include Mumbai, Kolkata, and Delhi.
13
India will witness the development of smart cities this decade as the country embarks on an ambitious
plan to upgrade urban infrastructure. An estimated investment of $216 billion will be pumped into Indias
basic urban infrastructure to 2020, of which the government has stipulated close to $1.2 billion for smart
city investment.
14
With a planned 100 smarter cities in India, each of the 29 states in India will have at least 2 smart cities.
Three will be completed by 2019 along Indias most ambitious infrastructure project, the Delhi-Mumbai
Industrial Corridor.
15
India is expected to invest an estimated $1.2 trillion in total infrastructure (urban and rural) by 2017.
Private investment will constitute about 50% of the investment, most of which will be deployed on public
private partnership (PPP) basis. Transport infrastructure would account for a third of the investment.
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India's Gen Y constitutes a third of the country's population and will join the working-age group, forming
67% of the working-age population by 2025. This will create the need for an additional 320 million jobs
in India by 2020.
17
India will emerge as the largest consumer class of the future, with middle class individuals accounting
for 66% of India's population (895 million) in 2020 and the lower middle class emerging as the biggest
middle class segment at 38%.
18
Frugal Innovation will become Indias key value proposition in manufacturing offering Value For Many.
Frugal Innovation business models have already yielded low-cost alternatives in simple goods like
tablets (Akash) to complex goods such as satellites (Mangalyaan cost 11% less than US and Chinese
satellites).
19
As India grows its stance as an industrial and knowledge economy, energy demand will grow to
1,509 mtoe in 2030; this is double the current demand. India will need to import nearly 1/3rd of its
demand in 2030. India will also turn to renewable sources and their generation could become a
formalized part of the grid.
20
Indias growth story to 2020 will also put pressure on its physical resources with significant gaps
expected in both food and water. Indias ground water is depleting at a fast rate of 25% and by 2025
could face water stress with a supply gap of 100 trillion litres.
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Rise of Connected Devices in India

There will be 4 billion connected devices by 2025.
Devices
Data
Connections
4 billion connected
devices by 2025
10 exabytes monthly
traffic by 2020
500 million mobile

broadband connections
by 2025
2.5 billion mobile

devices by 2025
38 exabytes a month
mobile data traffic by
2020
1.36 billion cellular

connections by 2025
3 connected devices for

every user by 2025
18 mbps average Internet

speed by 2020
310 million 3G
by 2025
Source: IDCEMC Study; Ericsson; Cisco; Frost & Sullivan

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Connected Devices and Indias Internet Economy

Indias Internet economy (as measured by total ICT spending) will reach $266 billion by 2020, accounting for
nearly 7% of the countrys GDP.
Internet Economy Potential, India, 2020

Internet Economy as percent of GDP
Percent Breakdown of Internet Economy

8%
93%
Private
Economy
India GDP
$3.8 trillion
Internet
Economy*
$266 billion
Enterprise
Economy
Public
Economy
7%
55%
37%
*Internet economy here represents total ICT spending in India.

Source: ITU; OECD; Frost & Sullivan
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Mobile EconomyGrowth in Mobile Based Industries in India

Key mobile-based industries in India are expected to worth a consolidated $9 billion by 2020.
Potential of Industries in India
Potential in Key Mobile Based Industries, India, 2020

mHealth
mBanking
Size =
$500 Million
Size =
$5$6
Billion
mBanking in
India could cover
142 million
people by 2020
who are currently
unbanked and
dont have
access to
financial
services.
mHealth has
shown to reduce
default rates in
treatments to
almost 1% in
diseases such as
tuberculosis in
India.
mGovernance
mCommerce
mEntertainment
Size =
$1.0$1.5
Billion
Size = $1.3
Billion
Size =
$3.6$4.0
Million
mGovernance
facility will help a
large rural
population, as it
does not require
a PC or
knowledge of
English, which is
the case,
opposed to
eGovernance.
With close to 900

million wireless
subscribers and
150 million
mobile Internet
users in India,
mCommerce
presents itself
with a huge
potential.
There are nearly

300 million
subscribers for
premium content
services such as
mobile gaming,
images, video
downloads, and
so on in India
already.
= market size in terms of fee revenue (value added revenue) in 2020.
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Source: GSMA; TRAI; RBI; Frost & Sullivan

10
India GDP ProjectionsIndia Needs to Grow at 10% per Annum

Indias GDP will reach $3.4 trillion by 2020, but holds the potential to reach nearly $4 trillion if investments
and manufacturing growth is more aggressive than expected to 2020.
Nominal GDP, India, 20112020

7%
3.4
2.6
Current
Trajectory
1.9
2011
2014
2017
2011
3.8
2.0
2014
2017
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
17.0%
Investment
(% of GDP)
40.0%
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
25.0%
2020
2.9
1.9
34.8%
2.0
10%
Accelerated
Trajectory
Investment
(% of GDP)
2020
Note: GDP figures are in $ Trillion.

Source: International Monetary Fund; The Hindu; Business Line; Frost & Sullivan
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Indias Race to Superpower5th Largest by 2020 if Growth

Accelerates
India could displace UK to become the fifth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP by 2020.
Top 10 Countries by Unadjusted Nominal GDP, Globally, 2013 and 2020
2013
2020: Current
2020: Accelerated
United States
United States
United States
China
China
China
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
France
United
United Kingdom
Germany
5th
India
India
United Kingdom
Brazil
France
France
Russia
Brazil
Brazil
Italy
Russia
Russia
10th India
Italy
Italy
India's economy is 10th

largest and only about a
third of Japan's in terms of
absolute unadjusted
dollars (nominal GDP).
6th
India, growing at 7%, will

become the 6th largest
economy, overtaking its
BRICs counterparts Brazil
and Russia.
If India fulfills it vision to

become a manufacturing
hub, it could displace UK
and enter the top 5 by
2020.
Source: IMF; Frost & Sullivan
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India IncIndias Industrial Growth Forecast

The industrial cycle peaks one year after each GDP peaks. Based on this correlation, India Inc will realize
the full potential of the Indian revival story by 2018.
Correlation Between GDP and Industrial Growth, India, 20002019
Two Year Consistent High
3,500
Manufacturing Reaches New

Highs
Industrial production at a 2
year high
Manufacturing grew a record

9% from previous year
Production manufacturing
index and measures of
business and consumer
confidence increase
25
20
2,500
15
2,000
10
1,500
5
Revised Outlook
0
(5)
GDP
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
Transition from public stimulus to

private-sector-led growth
2007
2006
2005
2004
2001
2000
2003
India became second

fastest growing economy in
the globe during the period
500
0
Despite a serious drop in

manufacturing, Indias revival was
quick due to service sector inputs
Strong Economy
2011
1,000
2002
GDP (Billion)
3,000
The next industrial

peak can be
anticipated in 2018, as
the effects of growing
demand and
improvements in
infrastructure trickle
down to manufacturing
Industrial Production Index (2007=100)
2018 Industrial Peak
(10)
Industrial Production Index

Source: US Federal Reserve; Frost & Sullivan
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India in the Industry League TableThe Future Big Industries of India

India is expected to become one of the global leaders (top 5) in at least 10 big markets of the future (2020).
Rank
Market
Region
Market Potential (2020)
Smartphones
Global
650 million smartphones
Direct-to-Home (DTH)
Global
120 million subscribers
All Exports
Global
$1 trillion value of exports
Automotive
Global
5 million cars by 2020
Retail
Global
$977 billion retail by 2020
Luxury
Asia
$15 billion by 2020
Steel
Global
63 million million tonnes (mt) output in 2020
Defense
Global
$65 billion spending by 2020
Chemicals
Global
$250 billion exports in 2020
Equity Market
Global
$3 trillion market value in 2020

Source: IBEF India Brand equity Foundation; Government of India; Frost & Sullivan
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Smart City Investment

India needs to invest an estimated $216 billion to 2020 for basic urban infrastructure, of which the
government has stipulated close to $1.2 billion for smart city investment.
Total Infrastructure Investment Needed, India, 20122020
Urban
Non-urban
$216
Billion
10%
20%
Total
Infrastructure
Investment =
$1.17 Trillion
$954
Billion
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of Urban and Non-Urban Infrastructure Investment Measured in Percent
Half a percent
($1.2 billion) of
total urban
infrastructure
investment
needed will be
for smart
cities funded
by the public
sector.
Key Urban Infrastructure Clusters
Smart Cities
(Investment Need Projection to 2020)
0.5%
($1.2 Billion)
Water Supply
Waste
Management
Urban Roads
$18 billion
$27 billion
$95 billion
Traffic
Management
Renewal and
Development
$5 billion
$23 billion
Street
Lighting
$1 billion
Mass Transit
$25 billion
Others
$23 billion
Source: World Bank; High Powered Expert Committee of the Government of India (HPEC);
Planning Commission; Ministry of Urban Development; Frost & Sullivan
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Indian InfrastructureAn Estimated Trillion Dollar Investment

Private investment constituted about a third of infrastructure investment in the 11th Plan, and this is
projected at 50% for the 12th Plan period.
Infrastructure Planned Outlay, India,

20132017
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Cumulative Infrastructure Planned Outlay

by Segment, India, 20132017
148
172
201
231
272
Total
Infrastructure
Planned Outlay
$1.02 trillion
(20132017)
Roads and
Bridges
154
16%
Railways
123
12%
Ports
41
4%
Airports
20
2%
Telecom
174
17%
Others*
512
50%
Note: Infrastructure figures are in $ billion.

*Others include Electricity, Irrigation, Water Supply and Sanitation, Storage, oil and gas pipelines.
Source: Government of India; Frost & Sullivan
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eRetailing Landscape in India

Online B2C commerce is expected to reach $35.08 billion by 2025.
Online
$977
Billion
Top Segments
Non-online
$35.08
Billion
$490
Billion
Consumer Electronics
12.28
35%
Computer Hardware
8.77
25%
Apparel
7.02
20%
Books
4.21
12%
Jewelry/Luxury
Goods/Accessories
1.75
5%
Others*
1.05
3%
$942
Billion
$2 Billion
$488
Billion
2012
Percent of
2025 Sales Total Online
($ Billion) Retail Market
2025
Total
$35.08
100%
Key: Excludes B2B, C2C and Online Travel, Classifieds, and Banking.
*Others include categories such as flowers, gifts, greetings, home, and garden.
Source: Vizisense; Accel Partners; Internet and Mobile Association of India; Comscore; Frost & Sullivan
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The Middle Bulge

Middle class individuals will account for 69% of Indias population (934 million) in 2020, with lower middle
class emerging as the biggest middle class segment at 38%.
Income Pyramid, India, 2010 and 2020
2012
Income Per Annum
2020
1,236 million individuals
> Re 10,000,000 ($220,000)
0.3%
(4)
Super
Rich
1%
(14)
0.3%
(4)
Rich
1%
(14)
0.4%
(5)
Affluent
3%
(41)
2%
(25)
Upper Middle
Class
9%
(122)
16%
(198)
Middle Class
22%
(298)
34%
(420)
Lower Middle
Class
38%
(515)
17%
(210)
Poor
6%
(81)
30%
(371)
Below
Poverty
Line
Re 10,000,000 ($220,000)
Re 5,000,000 ($110,000)
Re 2,000,000 ($44,000)
Re 1,000,000 ($22,000)
Re 340,000 ($7,500)
Re 150,000 ($3,200)
Re 70,000 ($1,116)
<Re. 70,000 ($1,116)
Poverty
Line
Note: Figures in the brackets are millions of individuals.

Poverty Line based on planning commission definition of
povertyRe. 4,365 per month per household.
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20%
(271)
Source: National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER); Frost & Sullivan
18
Working Age Demographic Dividend

India's Gen Y constitutes a third of the country's population and will join the working-age group, forming 42%
of the total working-age population by 2025.
2012
Age
2025
1,236 Million
Individuals
1,418 Million
Individuals
250 million jobs in rural

India
120 million jobs in urban
India
64 and above
36 million jobs for rural

women
34-64
12.5 million jobs for urban

women
15-34
0-14
4.5 million jobs for rural

non-literates
Female
Male
Female
Male
2 million jobs for urban

non-literates

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Aging India
Indias aging population is expected to account for nearly 7% of its population by 2025.
Aging India Demands

Pharmaceuticals and health
supplements
1,600,000.00
Elderly care
1,200,000.00
1,000,000.00
eHealth
800,000.00
600,000.00
400,000.00
Senior social services
200,000.00
0.00
Above 64
35-64
15-34
0-14
2012
62,673.82
364,574.77
436,301.54
373,136.61
2025
102,252.72
490,689.47
468,249.02
357,552.99
Year
*Note: The population pyramid is based on the assumption that India will
continue its current one-child-per-family birth control policies.
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Leisure
Senior tourism
Elderly education
Life insurance
Healthcare equipment for
the elderly
Products
Population (Million)
1,400,000.00
Healthcare
Population Pyramid*, India, 2012 and 2025

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Four Main Trends in Urbanisation

Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, and Rurban Towns.
Mega City
City with a minimum population of 8 million and a GDP of
$250 billion in 2025 (13 Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega
Cities in 2025)
Example:
Mega Regions
Example:
Greater Mumbai
Cities combining with suburbs or other neighboring cities to

form regions (population over 15 million)
NCR Delhi (includes New Delhi,

Noida, Greater Noida,
Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, Faridabad)
Mega Corridors
Example:
The corridors connecting two major cities or Mega Regions

(60 km or more apart, and with a combined population of 25
million or more)
Delhi-Mumbai Corridor (with a

population of 203.57 million in
2025)
Rurban Towns
Villages upgraded to town status with at least 400 people
per square feet and 75% workforce migrated to jobs other
than agriculture
Example:
Gill, Punjab
Mega Slums
1 million urban poor live in an area measuring just 1.5
square miles
Example:
Dharavi, Mumbai
Image source: Dreamstime
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21
India Urbanization Rate

Around 38% of the total Indian population will live in urban populations in 2025, and cities will account for
70% of Indias GDP in 2030.
Urbanization Rate of Highly Urban States

and Mega Cities in India in 2025
Key:
Mega Cities in 2025
Punjab
52.50%
Emerging Mega Cities

(over 4 million
population in 2025)
Delhi 98.8%
28.5 million
Haryana
46.31%
Ahmadabad
7.56 million
Kanpur
4.6 million
Jaipur
4.29 million
Madhya Pradesh
34.80%
Gujarat
53.04%
Surat
5.70 million
Mumbai 25.8
million
Pune
6.79 million
Maharashtra
61.01%
Karnataka
49.29%
Bangalore
9.57 million
Kolkata
20.1 million
Telengana
30.02%
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Urbanization
Rate
Contribution to
Countrys Urban
Population in 2025
Highly
Urban States
>30%
69%
Medium
Urban States
2530%
24%
Low Urban
States
<25%
7%
Hyderabad
9.09 million
Andhra
Pradesh
29.1%
Chennai
9.9 million
Tamil Nadu
74.78%
Note: Mega City is defined as a city with population of

over 8 million and GDP of $250 billion or more.
West Bengal
35.13%

Source: Department of Economic Affairs; Ministry of Finance, India; Frost & Sullivan
22
India Future Energy Mix

Energy demand will grow to 1,508 MTOE in 2030, which is 2 times the current demand. India will need to
import nearly a third of its demand in 2030.
Key Energy Consumers, India, 2030
Primary Energy Demand,

India, 2010 and 2030
24%
1,600
25%
1,508
Industrial
1,400
Primary Energy Demand (MTOE)
Others**
Commercial
*Others
1,200
10%
Residential
Nuclear
1,000
800
600
41%
Renewables
Hydro
691
Import vs Domestic, India, 2030
Gas
30%
Liquids
400
Imports
Coal
Domestic
Capacity
200
0
70%
2010
2030
*Others include Agriculture/irrigation and government sector.
**Others include Waste and biomass.
Source: IEA; MOP; TERI; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
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RenewablesFuture of Renewables Availability in India

The target for renewable energy capacity addition under the 12th five year plan is 30,000 MW, which will
take the share of renewable energy to roughly about 17% of the total installed capacity.
Percent Renewable
Installed Capacity,
India, 2010
Expansion Plans for Renewables

Installed Capacity, India, 20122022
12th Five Year Plan
(1 April 201231 March 2017)
12%
Percent Renewable Installed

Capacity, India, 2017
17%
Renewables
Power Generation Capacity
Solar
10,000 MW
Wind
15,000 MW
Small Hydro
2,100 MW
Biomass
2,900 MW
Total
30,000 MW
13th Five Year Plan

(1 April 201731 March 2022)
2010
Renewables
Solar
16,000 MW
Wind
11,000 MW
Small Hydro
1,500 MW
Biomass
2,000 MW
Total
30,500 MW
2017
Source: IEA; MOP;TERI; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
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Healthcare Market Outlook for India

Given the poor healthcare infrastructure in India, major avenues for growth in the country lies in providing
low-cost hospitals and more accessible points of health care delivery.
Health Care Market, India, 20112018
Market Status, India, 2013
181
16%
64
2011
Market Nature
Fragmented
Market Penetration
Rate
Medium
Market Stage
Growth
2018F
Note: Figures are in $ Billion
Healthcare market growth driven by rapidly growing population, rising income levels, increased
insurance penetration and an increased prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases.
6.5 physicians
per 10,000
population
compared to
global average
of 14.2
Over 40,000
hospitals in
India
9 beds per
10,000 people
as compared
to global
average of 29
beds
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Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on the Wild Side
Unknown
Solutions
Technology Innovation
Wild Innovation
Traffic Prediction system
Mobility Integration
Dynamic Parking
New Mobility Products and

Services
ADAS Features
Micro Mobility Solutions
Known
Solutions
Improvement
Application Innovation
Micro Cars
Corporate Mobility Solutions
Electric and FC Cars
Car Sharing
Electric Bikes
Car Pooling
Bike Sharing
Met Needs
Unmet Needs
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Research Scope, Objective, and Methodology
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Research Scope
Study Period
20122025
20152025
Forecast Period
(Short Term: 20152016, Mid Term: 20172018, Long Term: 20192025)
Geographical Scope
Industries Covered
India
Smart city market, mobility, retail, healthcare, government and security,

energy, ICT, and logistics

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Research Aims and Objectives
Aims
The objective of the study is to identify and understand the Mega Trend smart is the new green that will
impact and shape the countrys economy, society, and culture. For the purpose of this study, smart is the
new green is categorized into smart cities and sustainable cities.
Objectives
To define and understand the concept of Mega Trend
To identify the Mega Trends expected to have the biggest impact on India
To identify and analyse the market structure of such Mega Trends
To analyse region-wise opportunities of investment in various sectors
To assess the impact of the key Mega Trends and sub-trends, based on the degree of importance and
certainty over the next decade
To carry out a macro-to-micro analysis to understand the unmet needs or inherent business
opportunities in relevant industries
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Research Background
In addition to specific trends in urbanization, this research study also contains and captures content from
various other regional and global studies on Mega Trends.
P5DB-MT Mega Trends in India: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2020Completed
(February 2012)
M818-39 African Mega Trends: A Bright Vision for the 'Growing' ContinentCompleted (May 2012)
NAFD-MT Mega Trends in Latin America: A Future Outlook for the 'Next-Generation'Completed
(Dec 2012)
M847-MT Evolving Mega Trends To Transform Turkey into a Developed EconomyCompleted
(Jan 2013)
P6E3-MT Mega Trends in Indonesia: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2025Upcoming
M82C-MT Worlds Top Global Mega Trends To 2020 and Implications to Business, Society and
Cultures (2012 Edition)Upcoming
M75C-MT City as a Customer - Identifying Growth Opportunities in Cities of TomorrowCompleted
(April 2013)
M85D-MT Mega Trends in China: Macro to Micro Implications of Mega Trends to 2025Completed
(Jan 2013)
This study is also supplemented by our ongoing and continuous interaction with industry experts, industry
participants, partners, and in-house industry analysts.
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Research MethodologyFrom Macro to Micro
Macro
Identify Mega Trend

Through Brainstorming Sessions
The unique Mega Trend of smart city was
selected through macro-economic analysis,
interviews, and 10 brainstorming sessions with
analysts globally.
Identify Sub-trend
Through Scenario-building Exercises
Through a collective 200-day scenario-building
exercise in which a global team used data
extracted from secondary and primary
sources, unique sub-trends were identified
with implications for society, the market, and
other key sectors.
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Research MethodologyFrom Macro to Micro (continued)
Micro
Assess the impact of the Mega Trend on a

Micro Level
The impact of the Mega Trend was analyzed
to determine how it will influence industries,
businesses, and people through scenariobuilding exercises with industry experts and
secondary research inputs.
4
Opportunities Analysis
Opportunities in key industries were analyzed,
and suggestions for products and solutions
were generated.

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Definitions Used in the Study
Term
Definition
Mega City
City with a population of over 8 million and a GDP of $250 billion or more
Mega Regions
Cities grow and merge to become Mega Regions, with populations of over 15 million
Mega Corridors
Corridors that connect two Mega Cities or Mega Regions
Sustainable Cities
Cities built on a green initiative, from buildings to transport, governance, city planning, energy, and
technology; these cities are either upgraded or built from scratch
Satellite Town
Town designed to house the overspill population of a major city, but located well beyond the limits of
that city, operating as a discrete, self-contained entity
Net Worth/Wealth
Market value of saleable assets, including real estate, minus debts
High Net Worth

Individuals
Individuals with a net worth of $1 million to $50 million
Ultra High Net Worth

Individuals
Individuals with a net worth above $50 million
eGovernance
Use of ICT by various sectors of the government, including both delivery of services and interaction
with citizens for announcements and notifications
mGovernance
Use of mobile services platform for delivering government services

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Mega Trend 1Connectivity and Convergence
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Rise of Connected Devices in India

There will be 4 billion connected devices by 2025.
Devices
Data
Connections
4 billion connected
devices by 2025
10 exabytes monthly
traffic by 2020
500 million mobile

by 2025
2.5 billion mobile

devices by 2025
38 exabytes a month
mobile data traffic by
2020
1.36 billion cellular

connections by 2025
3 connected devices for

every user by 2025
18 mbps average Internet

speed by 2020
310 million 3G
by 2025

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Connected Devices and Indias Internet Economy

Indias Internet economy (as measured by total ICT spending) will reach $266 billion by 2020, accounting for
nearly 7% of the countrys GDP.
Internet Economy Potential, India, 2020

Internet Economy as percent of GDP
Percent Breakdown of Internet Economy

8%
93%
Private
Economy
India GDP
$3.8 trillion
Internet
Economy*
$266 billion
Enterprise
Economy
Public
Economy
7%
55%
37%
*Internet economy here represents total ICT spending in India.

Source: ITU; OECD; Frost & Sullivan
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India Mobile Apps Economy

Mobile app downloads to reach 10 billion apps by 2020.
2013
2020
~1.5 billion apps

downloads
~10 billion apps

downloads
India Leads
Mobile apps
downloads in
popular mobile
stores
#3 in Google Play
X ~20
X
~35 apps
per device
apps per
device
#1 in Nokia OVI
~44 million
smartphones
~500 million
smartphones
Source: IDC; EMC; Cisco; Frost & Sullivan

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Mobile EconomyGrowth in Mobile Based Industries in India

Key mobile-based industries in India are expected to worth a consolidated $9 billion by 2020.
Potential of Industries in India
Potential in Key Mobile Based Industries, India, 2020

mHealth
mBanking
Size = $500
million
Size = $5
$6 billion
mBanking in
India could cover
142 million
people by 2020
who are currently
unbanked and
dont have
access to
financial
services.
mHealth has
shown to reduce
default rates in
treatments to
almost 1% in
diseases such as
tuberculosis in
India.
mGovernance
mCommerce
mEntertainment
Size =
$1.0$1.5
billion
Size = $1.3
billion
Size = $3.6
$4.0 million
mGovernance
facility will help a
large rural
population, as it
does not require
a PC or
knowledge of
English, which is
the case,
opposed to
eGovernance.
With close to 900

million wireless
subscribers and
150 million
mobile Internet
users in India,
mCommerce
presents itself
with a huge
potential.
There are nearly

300 million
subscribers for
premium content
services such as
mobile gaming,
images, video
downloads, and
so on in India
already.
= market size in terms of fee revenue (value added revenue) in 2020.
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Source: GSMA; TRAI; RBI; Frost & Sullivan

38
Space Jam
India will launch 76 satellites, 9 space missions, and 30 launch vehicles by 2025.
National Fiber Optic Network Connectivity Plan, India, 20152019
Plan Features
INSAT 3D
2011
SRE-II
2012
Mars Orbiter,
2015
Asteroid/Comet
Flyby 2017
IRNSS-1 to 7
20122014
Chandrayan-2
Plan Checkpoints
Approved $3.3
2019 will see all
billion for
of the 200,000
National Optic
gram
ASTROSTAT
Aditya-1, Solar
Fiber Network
panchayats
2012
Coronagraph,
2013
project
connected
GAGAN
(Satellite Navigation)
250,000 gram
panchayats
with optic fiber
networks
As of 2013
As of 2025
Geo-Stationary Satellites
30
40
Earth Observation Satellites
26
23
Navigation Satellite
1
5
Experimental/Small Satellites
10
8
Space Missions
4
9
Launch Vehicles
26 =
28
Space Centers & Units
18
18
200 gram
panchayats will
have Wi-Fi
hotspots
GSATs
6, 7, 9, 11, & 14
2
20112013
1
2015 =
Cover
50,000
GMPs
GSLV, Mk-II
2013
2013
2016 =
Cover
100,000
GMPs
2019 =
Cover
100,000
GMPs
GSLV, Mk-III TSTO (RLVTD)

2014
2025
Source: ISRO; Frost & Sullivan

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Big Data Explosion

India will enter the zettabyte (1,000 exabyte) era by 2017.
Percent Breakdown of Traffic by

Device, India, 2013 and 2025
Data Traffic, India, 20132025

3.6
Mobile
2.8
Enter the
Zettabyte
Era
2013
2025
35%
55%
2013
2025
75%
45%
Wired
1.25
0.12
2013
2017
Note: Data traffic figures are in 1,000 exabyte

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2020
2025
40
Big Data and the Indian Analytics Software Market

The Big Data explosion is exponentially increasing analytics software market in India.
Percent of Analytics Software

Vendors Making more than INR1
Crore Revenue, India, 2011 and 2013
Key Target Verticals of Analytics

Product Vendors, India, 20132019
Defence and Security
4%
Manufacturing
4%
100%
90%
84%
80%
Percent
70%
Telecom
22%
60%
50%
Retail and CPG
17%
BFSI
17%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Cross Vertical/Multi
Vertical
12%
35%
0%
2011
2013
A majority of companies were start ups with small

revenue base and one product in the portfolio of
offerings. The growth, however, has been
massive, with nearly 70% making more revenue
than in 2011.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
The majority of Indian analytics companies are

coming up with products to target a wide array of
verticals. Of this, 34.8% of Indian analytics product
vendors offer a cross-vertical solution to be able to
target a maximum share of the pie.
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Mega Trend 2Bricks and Clicks
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eRetailing Landscape in India

Online B2C commerce is expected to reach $35.08 billion by 2025.
Online
$977
Billion
Top Segments
Non-online
$35.08
Billion
$490
Billion
$942
Billion
$2 Billion
$488
Billion
Consumer Electronics
12.28
35%
Computer Hardware
8.77
25%
Apparel
7.02
20%
Books
4.21
12%
Jewelry/Luxury
Goods/Accessories
1.75
5%
Others*
1.05
3%
Total
2012
Percent of
2025 Sales Total Online
($ Billion) Retail Market
$35.08
100%
2025
Key: Excludes B2B, C2C and Online Travel, Classifieds, and Banking.
*Others include categories such as flowers, gifts, greetings, home, and garden.
Source: Vizisense; Accel Partners; Internet and Mobile Association of India; Comscore; Frost & Sullivan
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India Online Retail Audience

44 million Indians accessed retail sites from work or home in 2012, which was an increase of 18% from
November 2011, as they look to buy more goods online.
Top 10 Retail Sites by Unique Visitors*, India, November 2011

Total Unique Visitors
(000s)
Reach
(%)
Amazon Sites
6,805
14.7
Apple.com Worldwide Sites
3,426
7.4
Samsung Group
2,759
5.9
Flipkart.com
2,675
5.8
Homeshop18.com
2,286
4.9
Naaptol.com
2,145
4.6
Bookmyshow.com
2,125
4.6
Myntra.com
2,110
4.5
Priceindia.in
2,047
4.4
Alibaba.com Corporation
1,973
4.3
Total Retail
28,351
61.1
Total Internet: Total Audience
46,390
100.0
10
Online retailers in India are rapidly expanding to Tier II and Tier III markets, offering payment methods
such as Cash on Delivery options to the unbanked online consumer in non-metropolitan areas.
*Visitors Age 15+ Home/Work Locations
Source: comScore; Media Metrix; Frost & Sullivan
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India Online Shopping Preferences

Gen Y and social platforms dominate the online shopping scene in India. Security on online payments still a
concern as majority opt to pay cash on delivery.
Online Audience1
Payment Methods*
Entry Points1
Mostly Young, Mostly Male
Mostly Cash on Delivery
Mostly Social Media
75% of Indian online users are

below the age of 35 years
95% of eCommerce come

from social media portals
A 60/40 male-to-female ratio is

consistent across the retail
category
Cash/CoD continues to
dominate as security concerns
on online transactions run high
among Indian online
consumers
Online Audience, 2013
Payment Types by Volume, 2013
Female
Male
55+
MasterCard
45-54
Visa
35-44
Direct Debit
25-34
All Others
15-24
Cash on
Delivery
*Note:
Retail Web Sites Leads, 2013
Social Media
Search
Engines
**Others
Survey month and year, July 2014; survey respondents: 5,800 individuals above 15 years.
**Other sources include print media, telecommunication, and television advertisements.

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Source: comScore Media Metrix; Frost & Sullivan

45
Online Hypermarkets See Cash-on-Delivery Trump Online Payments

CoD accounts for 50% to 75% of orders placed with various online retailers, while the remaining opt for
credit card or Internet banking options.
Percent Breakdown of Number of Transactions by Payment Method, India, 2014
Minimum
Cash on
Delivery
50%
50%
Online
Payments
The government entity India Post delivered

transactions worth Rs. 280 ($44.3 million) CoD
option for firms like Flipkart, Snapdeal, and
Amazon.
Maximum
25%
Cash on
Delivery
The distribution, delivery or logistics market is

expected to be driven highly by this trend which
will touch about $9 billion by 2021.
Online
Payments
75%

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What is Bricks and Clicks?

The retail model will evolve from a single/multiple channel model to an integrated hybrid cross channel
model.
Bricks (pre-2000)
Department
Stores
Supermarkets
Advent of Clicks (post-2000)
Hypermarkets
Online
Mobile
Payments
Mobile Apps
The FutureBricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond)
Virtual
Stores
Interactive
Stores
Hyper Online
Markets

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Bricks and Clicks Models Currently Being Adopted in India

Both online and high street retailers will experiment with new business strategies amalgamating bricks and
clicks.
Retailing Formats, India, 20132025
High
10
D
8
Online HyperMarkets (with

Cash-onDelivery)
Degree of Clicks
Click n Collect
6
5
Social
Commerce
Mobile
Commerce
3
Smaller Stores
2
1
Low
0
Low
Degree of Bricks
Note: The retailing formats have been plotted based on the degree of bricks and clicks involved in making the sale.
We have used both quantitative and qualitative reasoning to measure the degree of impact.
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High
48
Online HypermarketsValuation Boom

Investments in online retail companies have skyrocketed from a mere $200 million to a staggering $10 billion
between 2008 and 2013.
Investment Valuation of Retail Companies, India, 20082013

Amount
Raised
Valuation
Value of
Goods Sold
$1.6 billion
$10 billion
$3 billion
$1 billion
$2 billion
$1 billion
$2 billion
(investment)
Not known
$1 billion
Groupon
$50 million
$100 million
$1 billion
Fashion and You
$48 million
$200 million
Not known
Naaptol
$32 million
Not known
Not known
Online Retailer
Flipkart
(as of November 2014)
Snapdeal
Amazon India
Indian firms are

averaging a 2.5 to 3.0
times valuation on their
gross merchandise
volume (GMV) which is
on par with the global
average.
Flipkart is the most highly

valued retailer at $10
billion and has claims of
becoming Indias first
$100 billion company by
2020.

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Smaller StoresUrbanization Compelling Retailers to Shrink Store

Sizes
Retailer store sizes will be 15% to 20% smaller than the current average store size by 2020.
Big-box
Small-box
15%20%
Smaller
Examples of Small Format Stores
Shoppers
Stop
Shoppers Stop shrunk 5 of its 15
HyperCity stores larger than 80,000
square feet by more than half.
Spencers
Spencers Retail is currently changing

large-format ratio from 60:40 to 40:60.
More
Aditya Groups More has closed 40

of its large stores and is planning to
open smaller formats.
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Mobile Omni-channel LinksEmerging Applications

Technology is converting buyers into multi-channel shoppers.
Location-based Services
Foursquare
India
SHOPPERS STOP
SHOPPERS STOP
US
Augmented Reality
Shoppers Stop
India
Body Scanners
Selfridges
UK UK
Holography
Diesel
Motion Sensing
Tesco Store Trek
US
US
QR Coding
Gitanjali
Jewellers
US
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Online Social Commerce Business Models in India

Use of social media platforms to engage with the customer with user-generated content to market and sell
the product.
Social
Merchandising
Subscription
Commerce
E.g., enMarkit
E.g., Gourmet Box
Collaborative
Consumption
E.g., Olx
Group Buying
Social Shops
E.g., Snapdeal
E.g., Facebook
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Integration of Social Media and Retailing

Social media is still at its infancy in the Indian automotive industry. The level of engagements is limited and
few auto OEMs have started using Facebook and Twitter for promotions.
BMW IndiaNumber 2 Social

Brand
Audi IndiaNumber 1
Social Brand
Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment Analysis
Facebook Analysis
6%
23%
Neutral
2%
22%
97%
Overall strategy focuses on high quality

aspirational imagery by showing the
awesomeness of the brand
Likes
Shares
Positive
Comments
Negative
4%
Neutral
Shares
Positive
71%
2%
6%
Likes
1%
Facebook Analysis
Comments
Negative
72%
94%
Use of images and videos from events

Engagement activities for attending
events / win merchandise
Audi has the largest social media community with around 3.3 million Facebook likes, but currently the
growth rate is slow (1.4%) as compared to BMW India, which is growing at a rate of 3% each year and has
a social media community with around 2.7 million likes.
Source: Simplify 360; Frost & Sullivan
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Click and Collect Omni-channel Model

Click and collect emerges as the most preferred omni-channel model.
Click and Collect

Model
Retailer reserves
Amazon
Amazon has teamed up with

Bharat Petroleum to offer click
and collect from its In and Out
petrol forecourt stores in Delhi
and Mumbai.
Fortune
Group
There are target sales of 8% to

10% from omni-channels by
2016, and Fortune Group is
launching click and collect for
its chains Big Bazaar and
ezone.
Shoppers
Stop
Shoppers Stop is planning to

trial click and collect and click
and reserve options for all their
online orders in 2015.
customer orders placed
online with or (mostly)

without a fee
Shoppers collect their
order at a pick-up point
or from the store
Shoppers have to
identify themselves at
Click and
Collect
Pioneers
of India
the store or pick-up

point
Orders can be paid for
online or in cash while
collecting

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Mega Trend 3Social Trends
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Social Trends in India

GenY, the working-age population, working women, and the great Indian middle class continue to be the
most influential segments of the population triggering new social, technological, and economic trends.
Substantial
Working
Population
34% of the Gen Y

population in 2020
800 million of the globes
youngest population
(034 years) by 2020
Gen Y
Geo
Socialization
Middle
Bulge
Sheconomy
Ageing
Population
Citizens Sans
Boundaries
Generational
Political
Shift
119 million additional

work force by 2020
40% women in Indian
working-age population in
2020
864 million middle class,
forming 62% of Indias
population in 2020

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The Middle Bulge

Middle class individuals will account for 69% of Indias population (934 million) in 2020, with lower middle
class emerging as the biggest middle class segment at 38%.
Income Pyramid, India, 2010 and 2020
2012
Income Per Annum
2020
> Re 10,000,000 ($220,000)
0.3%
(4)
Super
Rich
1%
(14)
0.3%
(4)
Rich
1%
(14)
0.4%
(5)
Affluent
3%
(41)
2%
(25)
Upper Middle
Class
9%
(122)
16%
(198)
Middle Class
22%
(298)
34%
(420)
Lower Middle
Class
38%
(515)
17%
(210)
Poor
6%
(81)
30%
(371)
Below
Poverty
Line
Re 10,000,000 ($220,000)
Re 5,000,000 ($110,000)
Re 2,000,000 ($44,000)
Re 1,000,000 ($22,000)
Re 340,000 ($7,500)
Re 150,000 ($3,200)
Re 70,000 ($1,116)
<Re. 70,000 ($1,116)
Poverty
Line
Note: Figures in the brackets are millions of individuals.

Poverty Line based on planning commission definition of
povertyRe. 4,365 per month per household.
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20%
(271)
57
Wealth Pyramid
There will be over one million HNWIs in India (wealth over $1.5 million) and over 6,000 UHNWIs
(wealth over $50 million) by 2020.
Wealth Pyramid, India, 2010 and 2020
2013
2020
Over $1
billion
25
150
$500$1,000
million
35
187
$100$500
million
410
2,196
$50$100
million
350
3,589
$10$50
million
7,800
43,367
$5$10
million
12,700
680,082
$1$5
million
650,000
882,543
UHNWI: Ultra High Net Worth Individualabove net worth of $50 million
HNWI: High Net Worth Individualnet worth of $1$50 million
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UHNWIs
(8,222)
HNWIs
(1.8 million)
Note: Net Worth/Wealth includes value of all saleable assets,

including financial and non-financial assets, less debts.
Source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook; Frost & Sullivan
58
Working Age Demographic Dividend

India's Gen Y constitutes a third of the country's population and will join the working-age group, forming
75% of the population by 2025.
2012
2025
1,236 million
Individuals
1,418 million
Individuals
250 million jobs in rural

India
120 million jobs in urban
India
64 and above
36 million jobs for rural

women
34-64
12.5 million jobs for urban

women
15-34
0-14
4.5 million jobs for rural

non-literates
Female
Male
Female
Male
2 million jobs for urban

non-literates
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Aging India
Indias aging population is expected to account for nearly 7% of its population by 2025.
1,400,000.00
Pharmaceuticals and health

supplements
1,200,000.00
Elderly care
1,000,000.00
eHealth
800,000.00
600,000.00
200,000.00
0.00
Above 64
35-64
15-34
0-14
Senior social services

2012
62,673.82
364,574.77
436,301.54
373,136.61
2025
102,252.72
490,689.47
468,249.02
357,552.99
Year
*Note: The population pyramid is based on the assumption that India will
continue its current one-child-per-family birth control policies.
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Leisure
Senior tourism
400,000.00
Elderly education
Life insurance
Healthcare equipment for
the elderly
Products
Population (Million)
1,600,000.00
Aging India Demands
Healthcare
Population Pyramid*, India, 2012 and 2025

60
Polar Family StructuresMulti-generational vs. Single Households

Future families will be 3 member households, demanding for smaller sized assets and smaller variants in all
consumer goods.
Households by Size, India, 2001
1
Average Household Size, India, 19712011
4%
11%
Average Household
Size
8%
2
3 to 5
6 to 8
28%
9 and
above
49%
Households by Size, India, 2011

1
2
6%
4%
6.0
5.3
5.5
5.5
5.3
4.8
5.0
4.0
3.1
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
Family Structure, India, 2011

10%
Rural
60%
Urban
40%
25%
Men
55%
3 to 5
Women
45%
6 to 8
9 and
above
55%
Married
70%
Single
30%

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Mega Trend 4Economic Trends
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62
India GDP ProjectionsIndia Needs to Grow at 10% per Annum

Indias GDP will reach $3.4 trillion by 2020, but holds the potential to reach nearly $4 trillion if investments
and manufacturing growth is more aggressive than expected in 2020.
Nominal GDP, India, 20112020

7%
3.4
2.6
Current
Trajectory
1.9
2011
2014
2017
2011
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
17.0%
Investment
(% of GDP)
40.0%
Manufacturing
(% of GDP)
25.0%
2020
3.8
2.9
1.9
34.8%
2.0
10%
Accelerated
Trajectory
Investment
(% of GDP)
2.0
2014
2017
2020
Note: GDP figures are in $ Trillion.
Source: International Monetary Fund; The Hindu; Business Line; Frost & Sullivan
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Indias Race to Superpower5th Largest by 2020 if Growth

Accelerates
India could displace UK to become the fifth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP by 2020.
Top 10 Countries by Unadjusted Nominal GDP, Globally, 2013 and 2020
2013
2020: Current
2020: Accelerated
United States
United States
United States
China
China
China
Japan
Japan
Japan
Germany
Germany
France
United
United Kingdom
Germany
5th
India
India
United Kingdom
Brazil
France
France
Russia
Brazil
Brazil
Italy
Russia
Russia
10th India
Italy
Italy
India's economy is 10th

largest and only about a
third of Japan's in terms of
absolute unadjusted
dollars (nominal GDP).
6th
India, growing at 7%, will

become the 6th largest
economy, overtaking its
BRICs counterparts Brazil
and Russia.
If India fulfills it vision to

become a manufacturing
hub, it could displace UK
and enter the top 5 by
2020.
Source: IMF; Frost & Sullivan
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India GDP by SectorIndustrial Output Contests Services Growth

The initiatives proposed under the 12th Five-year Plan will gradually shift Indias economy from a servicesbased economy to an industry-driven economy by 2025.
GDP Contribution by Sector: Current Trajectory, India, 2013 and 2020
2013
Services is the biggest sector

contributing 51% of GDP
2020
17%
32%
Industries will be the biggest segment

generating 40% of the GDP
20%
41%
Agriculture
Agriculture
Services
Services
Industries
Industries
39%
51%
Contribution to GDP growth

Services
Contribution to GDP growth

Services
35%
Industries
7%
Industries
Agriculture
5%
Agriculture
10
20
30
Percent
40
50
27%
20%
7%
0
10
20
30
Percent
40
50
Source: World Bank (World Development Indicators); Planning Commission of India; Frost & Sullivan
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Top 10 States Contributing to India GDP in 2010 and 2020

Madhya Pradesh enters top 10 list with Andhra Pradesh exit (owing to Telengana split).
Stable
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Delhi
2010$60.54 billion
2020$170.93 billion
Rajasthan
2010$66.91 billion
2020$192.53 billion
Gujarat
2010$120.71 billion
2020$345.31 billion
Increasing
Top 5 states to account

for 45.7% of countrys
GDP in 2020
10
Uttar Pradesh
2010$128.92 billion
2020$351.61 billion
Madhya Pradesh
2010$60.54 billion
2020$160.2 billion
Maharashtra
2010$257.85 billion
2020$726.01 billion
Karnataka
2010$93.02 billion
2020$275.70 billion
Kerala
2010$65.74 billion
2020$189.88 billion
West Bengal
2010$106.07 billion
2020$311.95 billion
Tamil Nadu
2010$127.30 billion
2020$346.91 billion
Note: The figures denote GDP at market prices.
Arrows denote movement in ranking in 2020 compared to 2010.
Source: Planning Commission of India; International Monetary Fund; Frost & Sullivan
66
India as Global Manufacturing HubThe Competitive Advantage

Indias manufacturing sector in terms of gross value added to GDP (at the current growth rate) could reach
$1,149 billion by 2022.
Manufacturing GVA, 20132022
Manufacturing Advantages, India and China, 2013
Manufacturing GVA
($ Billion)
1,400
1,149
1,200
884
1,000
310
403
$2 per
hour
200
0
$1 per
hour
China
Minimum Wages
Percent Contribution to GDP,
20132022
Contribution to GDP
30%
25%
22%
25%
15% 16%
17%
19%
15%
5,00,000
per year
China
600,000
per year
India
201320152017201820192022
20%
Among the largest producers of English

speaking graduates
524
600
400
Much Skilled Workforce
Among the lowest wages and the

largest working-age pool
680
800
Low Cost Labor and

Demographic Dividend
India
Engineering Graduates
Currency Advantage
Rupees value against the dollar (as
compared to china) is much more
attractive
Open Trade Favorable: FTAs

and FDI
FDI inflows are on the rise again
suggesting higher business confidence
40
$0.16
25
35
24
32
29
China
10%
$0.01
5%
Value Against Dollar
0%
2013 2015 2017 2018 2019 2022
India
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Figures are in $billion
Source: NIC; Frost & Sullivan
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Emerging Manufacturing Trends in India

Improving manufacturing performance in India is a necessary condition for high growth and job creation.
Trends indicate a shift toward a more cost-efficient and high-return industry in the future.
High Value Goods
Frugal Engineering
Focus on Logistics
Infrastructure
The country is increasingly getting

recognized for high value goods
requiring a fair amount of engineering
precision and quality like automotive
components and electronics.
The country capitalizing its skilled

labor that is educated, knowledge
driven and at the same time cheaper
is giving India an advantage in
making low cost products.
The country is focusing on improving

the logistics infrastructure to push
manufacturing effectiveness
including efforts such as freight lanes
and tax incentives.
Export Value, India, 2015
Examples
Logistics Cost, India, 2015
Engineering
Goods
120
Auto Components
25
$35 Akaash Tablet

Average Price:
$70
$70 Godrej Fridge

Average Price:
$200
50 100 150
Billion $
$800 ECG
Average Price:
$2,000
$24 Water Purifier

Average Price:
$100
Freight Time
Logistics Costs
0%
20%
40%
20% 40% 60%
Percent
Figures are in $ billion
India is now directly supplying to

major global OEMs like General
Motors, Mitsubishi. The share of
export revenues from OEMs has
increased from 30% in 1999 to 70%
in 2005.
Instead of India following other

systems like Japans Lean
Manufacturing, India is looking to
create its own system with Frugal
Engineering that others could follow
and draw India an advantage.
Improvement in logistics
infrastructure could increase net
sales of key manufacturing industries
by nearly 3% to 4% through
reduction in expensive logistics
costs.
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India IncIndias Industrial Growth Forecast

The industrial cycle peaks one year after each GDP peaks. Based on this correlation, India Inc will realize
the full potential of the Indian revival story by 2018.
Correlation Between GDP and Industrial Growth, India, 20002019
Two Year Consistent High
3,500
Manufacturing Reaches New

Highs
Industrial production at a 2
year high
Manufacturing grew a record

9% from previous year
Production manufacturing
index and measures of
business and consumer
confidence increase
25
20
2,500
15
2,000
10
1,500
5
Revised Outlook
0
(5)
GDP
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2010
2009
2008
Transition from public stimulus to

private-sector-led growth
2007
2006
2005
2004
2001
2000
2003
India became second

fastest growing economy in
the globe during the period
500
0
Despite a serious drop in

manufacturing, Indias revival was
quick due to service sector inputs
Strong Economy
2011
1,000
2002
GDP (Billion)
3,000
The next industrial

peak can be
anticipated in 2018, as
the effects of growing
demand and
improvements in
infrastructure trickle
down to manufacturing
Industrial Production Index (2007=100)
2018 Industrial Peak
(10)
Industrial Production Index

Source: US Federal Reserve; Frost & Sullivan
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India in the Industry League TableThe Future Big Industries of India

India is expected to become one of the global leaders (top 5) in at least 10 big markets of the future (2020).
Rank
Market
Region
Market Potential (2020)
Smartphones
Global
650 million smartphones
Direct-to-Home (DTH)
Global
120 million subscribers
All Exports
Global
$1 trillion value of exports
Automotive
Global
5 million cars by 2020
Retail
Global
$977 billion retail by 2020
Luxury
Asia
$15 billion by 2020
Steel
Global
63 million million tonnes (mt) output in 2020
Defense
Global
$65 billion spending by 2020
Chemicals
Global
$250 billion exports in 2020
Equity Market
Global
$3 trillion market value in 2020

Source: IBEF India Brand equity Foundation; Government of India; Frost & Sullivan
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Mega Trend 5Urbanization
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Four Main Trends in Urbanisation

Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, and Rurban Towns.
Mega City
City with a minimum population of 8 million and a GDP of
$250 billion in 2025 (13 Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega
Cities in 2025)
Example:
Mega Regions
Example:
Greater Mumbai
Cities combining with suburbs or other neighboring cities to

form regions (population over 15 million)
NCR Delhi (includes New Delhi,

Noida, Greater Noida,
Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, Faridabad)
Mega Corridors
Example:
The corridors connecting two major cities or Mega Regions

(60 km or more apart, and with a combined population of 25
million or more)
Delhi-Mumbai Corridor (with a

population of 203.57 million in
2025)
Rurban Towns
Villages upgraded to town status with at least 400 people
per square feet and 75% workforce migrated to jobs other
than agriculture
Example:
Gill, Punjab
Mega Slums
1 million urban poor live in an area measuring just 1.5
square miles
Example:
Dharavi, Mumbai
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India Urbanization Rate

Around 38% of the total Indian population will live in urban populations in 2025, and cities will account for
70% of Indias GDP in 2030.
Urbanization Rate of Highly Urban States

and Mega Cities in India in 2025
Key:
Mega Cities in 2025
Punjab
52.50%

(over 4 million
population in 2025)
Delhi 98.8%
28.5 million
Haryana
46.31%
Ahmadabad
7.56 million
Kanpur
4.6 million
Jaipur
4.29 million
Madhya Pradesh
34.80%
Gujarat
53.04%
Surat
5.70 million
Mumbai 25.8
million
Pune
6.79 million
Maharashtra
61.01%
Karnataka
49.29%
Bangalore
9.57 million
Kolkata
20.1 million
Telengana
30.02%
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Urbanization
Rate
Contribution to
Countrys Urban
Population in 2025
Highly
Urban States
>30%
69%
Medium
Urban States
2530%
24%
Low Urban
States
<25%
7%
Hyderabad
9.09 million
Andhra
Pradesh
29.1%
Chennai
9.9 million
Tamil Nadu
74.78%
Note: Mega City is defined as a city with population of

over 8 million and GDP of $250 billion or more.
West Bengal
35.13%

73
Mega Regions in 2025 and Beyond

India will have four Mega Regions by 2025, and each with a population over 15 million.
New Delhi, Noida, Greater Noida,

Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, Faridabad
28.5 Million
Ahmedabad,
Gandhinagar
7.8 Million
Mumbai, Bhiwandi,
Kalyan, Thane,
Ulhasnagar
34.4 Million
Kolkata, Howrah
21.6 Million
Hyderabad, Secunderabad
9.14 Million
Pune, PimpriChinchwad
14 Million
Note: Mega regions are those regions that are

formed from the combination of cities and suburbs
having population of 15 million or more.
Mega Regions in 2025
Chennai,
Kanchipuram,
Pondicherry
15 Million
Potential Mega Regions in 2030
Potential Mega Regions after 2030
Source: Urban Planning Commission of India; Frost & Sullivan

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Mega Connection
India will see 8 Mega Corridors by 2021.
Delhi-Chandigarh
(Not avaiable)
Delhi-Dehradun
(Not avaiable)
Amritsar-Jalandhar
(Not avaiable)
Delhi-Jaipur
(Not avaiable)
Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (204)

Udaipur-Kota (NA)
Delhi-Agra (Not avaiable)

Delhi-Bareily
(Not avaiable)
Guwahati-Jorhat
(Not avaiable)
Lucknow-Kanpur
(Not avaiable)
Mehsana-Valsa (48)
Jamnagar-Bhuj (4)
Ahmedabad- Junagarh
(6)
Bhavnagar-Porbandar (4)
Kolkata to Cuttack
(Not avaiable)
Mumbai-Ahmedabad (58)
Hyderabad- Vijaywada (10.3)

Hyderabad-Adilabad (2.8)
Mumbai-Nagpur (26)
Hyderabad-Hindupur (29.1)
Pune-Jalgaon (7.6)
Srikakulum-Nellore (25.3)
Bangalore-Belgaum
(38.5)
Chennai-Hosur (30.4)
Mangalore-Karwar
Chennai- Karaikudi (4.9)
Mysore-Kolar (8.6)
Coimbatore-Krishnagiri (13.4)
Population greater than 25 million
Population less than 25 million
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Tuticorin- Nagercoil (2.8)
Note: Mega Corridors are those corridors

that connect two major cities or Mega
Regions (60 km or more apart, and with a
combined population of 25 million or more)
The figures in brackets represent
population in million units
Source: Population Foundation of India;
Planning Commission of India;
Frost & Sullivan
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Mega Corridor Case Study

The Delhi-Mumbai and Chennai-Bangalore-Mumbai business corridors that connects important industrialhubs of India is coming closer to reality.
Key Highlights
Dadri-Noida-Ghaziabad
Investment Region, UP
$90 Billion
The estimated funding from Japanese and
Indian and government on a 50:50 basis
Manesar-Bawal Investment
Region, Harayana
Delhi
1,483 km
Road length and 1,500 km rail link of DMIC
supported by financial and technical aid
from Japan
Delhi-Mumbai
Industrial Corridor
5 states that are being integrated are Delhi,

Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and
Maharashtra
Khushkera-BhiwadiNeemrana Investment
Region, Rajasthan
Maharashtra Dighi
Port Industrial Area
Belgaum and Hubli
Industrial Areas,
Karnataka
Special Investment Region
(SIR), Dharwad, Karnataka
National Investment and
Manufacturing Zone (NIMZ),
Tumkur, Karnataka
State Capital
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3 million employment opportunities in

manufacturing and processing industries
Mumbai
Mumbai-Bangalore-Chennai
Industrial Corridor
Chennai
Bangalore
Sriperambudur,
industrial area, Tamil
Nadu
Business Hub,
Chittoor, Andhra
Pradesh
2,391 km
Road length and 805 km rail link being
jointly developed by DIPP and the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
4 states that are being integrated are Tamil
Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and
Maharashtra.
3 new industrial and Business Hubs
Chittoor, Dharwad and Tumkur
Source: DMIC; Economic Times; Frost & Sullivan

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Urbanization Percolates to Rural AreasRurbanization

Of the increase in urbanization over this decade, 90% happened in the form of census towns under
Panchayat administration.
Schematic Representation of Urban
Panorama, India, 2020
Rurban Cities
E.g., Greater Noida
Rurban Population
Growth
30%
Satellite
Towns
E.g., Pikhuwa
City Population
Growth
15%
Potential
Mega City
E.g., Kanpur
Facts on Rurban Areas

At least 75% of male working population is
employed outside of the agricultural sector
Governed by municipalities or panchayats
Account for 90% of land area in India
Approximately 5,000* total rurban towns in
India as of December 2011
Contribution to GDP, India, 2020
Key Indicators
Facts
Household Income (2013)
Rs. 1,50,0003,60,000
Share of Indias Total Disposable

Income (2013)
40%
Internet Penetration (2013)
35%
Contribution to Total FMCG Sales

(2013)
40%
Large Cities
25%
Rurban Towns
25%
Villages
50%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
*Includes Statutory and Census towns with less than 500,000 population.
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Unacknowledged Urbanization in Villages

Over 2,400 settlements India were upgraded to urban from rural in 2011, owing to rising population rates
and growth of non-agricultural jobs in those areas.
Percent Breakdown of Indian Settlements by Type, India, 19712011
100%
Percent
80%
60%
50%
74%
Medium to Small Villages
65%
Very Large Villages
20%
40%
14%
20%
0%
10%
16%
0%
1971
18%
3%
1991
27%
Mega Cities
3%
2011
Villages still vastly outnumber towns in India (Census 2011 estimated 8,000 urban centres, including
rurban towns, in a sea of 660,000 villages).
Since 1951, the proportion of rural India living in medium to small villages and hamlets (of fewer than
2,000 people) has decreased from 74% to an estimated 50% today.
The percentage of Indians living in large villages (more than 5,000 people) jumped from 10% to 20%.
Not all of these villages qualify as rurban towns, but most of them mimic urban living.
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Mega SlumsCase Study Dharavi

Nearly 60% of the population growth in Mumbai has been among slum dwellers over the last decade.
Economic Snapshot of Dharavi and Mumbai, India, 2013
$650 million
annual
turnover
Over 1
million in
population
5,000
businesses
and 15,000
factories
Per capita
income:
$500-$2,000
per year

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Mega Trend 6Smart is the New Green with Smart Cities
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80
Smart City Investment

India needs to invest an estimated $216 billion to 2020 for basic urban infrastructure, of which the
government has stipulated close to $1.2 billion for smart city investment.
Total Infrastructure Investment Needed, India, 20122020
Urban
Non-urban
$216
Billion
10%
20%
Total
Infrastructure
Investment =
$1.17 Trillion
$954
Billion
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share of Urban and Non-Urban Infrastructure Investment Measured in Percent
Half a percent
($1.2 billion) of
total urban
infrastructure
investment
needed will be
for smart
cities funded
by the public
sector.
Key Urban Infrastructure Clusters
Smart Cities
(Investment Need Projection to 2020)
0.5%
($1.2 Billion)
Water Supply
Waste
Management
Urban Roads
$18 billion
$27 billion
$95 billion
Traffic
Management
Renewal and
Development
$5 billion
$23 billion
Street
Lighting
$1 billion
Mass Transit
$25 billion
Others
$23 billion
Source: World Bank; High Powered Expert Committee of the Government of India (HPEC);
Planning Commission; Ministry of Urban Development; Frost & Sullivan
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India Plans for Smart Cities

India is poised to have 100 smarter cities; three to be completed by 2019 in the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial
Corridor.
Proposed Smart Cities, India, 2014
Rajasthan
(7)
Gujarat
(7)
New
Delhi
(3)
Names of states and

number of smart cities
proposed within each
as of September 2014;
57 more to be unveiled
Uttar Pradesh
(6)
Maharashtra
(3)
Karnataka
(7)
Kerala
(7)
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Total Budget
$1.2 billion (2014 to 2015)
Funding
Mechanism
PPP Institution called 3P

set up to streamline
investment in infrastructure
projects
Early Entrants
IBM, Cisco, Dubai Telecom
Impact on
Economy
10% to 15% increase in

employment
Total Smart
Cities
100; at least 2 per 29

states
Andhra Pradesh
(2)
Tamil Nadu
(3)
Note: Please note the data in brackets refers to the number

of smart cities being planned for selected states.
Source: Ministry of Urban Development; Frost & Sullivan
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Mega Trend 7Innovating to Zero
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Examples of Innovating to Zero

Emerging technologies are innovating to zero breaches of security, accidents, fatalities, and emissions in
2020.
Zero Time Business Incubation

Zero Energy Building
Off-the-grid buildings
On-site energy harvesting
Cutting edge IT
Zero Defects
Use of intelligent systems
Zero faults and zero errors

in manufacturing
Increase use of renewable

energy
Very strict quality control
Infrastructure and services that

convert ideas to
implementation in real-time
Instant file sharing networking
interfaces
Zero management gaps
Net zero energy hospitals
Zero processing time

Zero learning gaps
Zero Accidents
Carbon Neutral City
Zero Design-to-shelf (Retail)
Energy efficient buildings
Strong health and safety

measures
In-house design, cutting,

finishing
Greener transport
Safety days (e.g., Shell)
Continuous, speedy deliveries
Waste reduction and waste

recycling
Life-saving rules within

facilities
Direct point-of-sale data

collection
Increase use of renewable

energy
Active safety systems in

vehicles that override
drivers
Daily analysis of product sales

and customer feedback using
software analytics
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Power of Shunya (Zero)Examples of Innovating to Zero in India
BritanniaZero Iron Deficiency

1 out of every 3 malnourished children lives in IndiaUNICEF
Britannia distributes iron-fortified biscuits to school children in India through an

affordable delivery mechanism.
DuPontScience-based Solutions for Innovating to Zero

India has 16% of the worlds population and only 4% of the worlds
water resource to sustain itDuPont
DuPonts Zero Innovation Clusters:
Food and Nutrition and Sustainable Agriculture: Zero malnutrition, zero
food contamination, zero wastage, zero hunger
Energy and Mobility: Zero power cuts, zero dependence on fossil fuels
Safety and Sustainability: Zero workplace hazards, zero lives lost, zero
carbon footprints
Sustainable Infrastructure: Zero compromise on safety, performance, or
durability
Image source: Creative Commons
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Macro-to-micro Implications of Innovating to Zero

Stakeholders in the United States should explore the following opportunities to leverage the Mega Vision of
Innovating to Zero.
OEMs are investing in

greener vehicles that
have a smaller carbon
footprint. New
technologies include
alternative hybrid and
electric powertrains and
lighter vehicles.
The Departments of
Transportation in Illinois,
Washington State, and
Minnesota have adopted
the goal of zero road
fatalities (modelled after
the Norwegian
government), paving the
way for new and improved
vehicular safety
technologies.
Zero
Emissions
Carbon Neutral
Cities
Macro-to-micro
Implications of
Innovating to Zero
Zero Deaths
in Accidents
Zero Carbon
Manufacturing
Identify key cities across

the United States that can
be carbon-neutral cities in
the future, modelled after
Seattle. The demand for
environment friendly
transportation services
such as car or bike
sharing, ride sharing, and
multi-modality will
increase.
The Hyundai Motor
Company recently began
assembly-line production
of zero-emission
hydrogen-powered
vehicles. A number of
automotive OEMs are
working toward the goal
of emission free
production.
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Mega Trend 8New Business Models: Value for Many
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New Business ModelsValue for Many
New Business Models, Global, 2012
Personalization and
Customization
E.g., Nike and BMW
Co-creation
E.g., Quirky.com
Quirky.com
New Business Models
Pay as you go
PAYD* and PHYD**
Car Insurance
One-off Experience
E.g., BMW on Demand
*PAYPay as you drive;

**PHYDPay how you drive
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Image Source: Creative Commons

88
Example of 'Value for Many' Business Models.

The US government should promote business models that can be scaled globally to sell to the global middle
class and the 5 billion people connected through the Internet.
Free
Premium
Value for Many

=
Group Buying
Freemium
SharingWhat is Yours is
Mine (P2P Business
Models)
Will Replace
Affordable Healthcare
Value for Money
Affordable Products
Micro Finance

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Value for Many to Replace Value for Money

Godrej Chotu-Kool is a cheapest ice box (price ranging between $65 to $70) for the poor, which essentially
keeps water cool and vegetables fresh, but does not make ice.
Godrej Chotu-Kool
Unique
Marketing
Proposition
2
Low
Maintenance
The 6
Dimensions
3
Lifestyle
Proposition
Priced between $65-$70, Chotu-Kool is the cheapest

segment refrigerator in India.
It consumes only 55 watts of power, operates on

battery, and uses high-end insulation to remain cool
for long periods without power.
It offers rural India comfort, convenience, and social

status in a single product at an affordable price.
In addition to household usage, the products is being

positioned as a travel companion (picnic box).
The product is available only in rural and semi-urban

areas where customers cannot afford to spend above
$180 on freezers.
Tie up with the Indian Postal Department, the largest

distribution network, to sell refrigerators to village
homes through postmen.
5
Unique
Consumer
Low Price
4
Multiple
Applications
Launch Date
2009
Key Facts
~16,000 units sold in 2011; plans to sell

1 million by 2015
Operations
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Tamilnadu

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Value for Many to Replace Value for Money (continued)

Aravind Eye Care Hospital is an assembly line type cataract operation provided to around 286,000 patients
each year.
Aravind Eye Care
Sustainable
Funding
Unique Health
Care Delivery
Model
Low Price
2
Low
Economies of
Scale
The 6
Dimensions
3
High
Productivity
Cost per surgery is around $18 in India, about 1% of

the cost in the United States.
The overall annual cost incurred by Aravind to deliver

eye care is $13.8 million, less than 1% of the cost
incurred by developed countries.
Assembly line model of surgery allows Aravind to

perform 2,000 surgeries compared to the national
average of 400 in a year.
Created a local internal capacity for the manufacture

of intra-ocular lens, thereby reducing its cost to $2 a
piece - strikingly less compared to the $150 in
developed countries.
To find patients, it pioneered the use of eye screening

camps to identify patients in need of cataract surgery.
Financed through a self-funding model, 35% of its

paying patients provide the funds needed to serve the
remaining non-paying 65%.
4
Local
Manufacturing
Launch Date
1976
Key Facts
Over 2.6 million outpatients and 315,000

eye surgeries conducted in 20102011
Operations
Hospitals in eight cities/towns in Tamil

Nadu
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New Business ModelsGlobal Vehicle Platforms

By 2020, 12 key global OEM groups, with a total 154 platforms, will account for nearly 74% of the global
vehicle production.
Vehicle Platform Summary, Global, 2010 and 2020

PQ35,
MQB
35
XV, E
B, B0
Gamma,
Delta 3
HD,
HD
Global C,
Global C
33
SR1,
C-EVO
PF1,
BVH1
Vista,
Ace
PL2,
PL2
30
Total Number of Platforms
B,
Basic
32
2010
30
25
W,
MRA
27 27
2020
27
23
20
18
2010 Average = 18.6 Platforms

17
15
14
15
9
10
13
9
2020 Average = 12.8 Platforms
13
12
9
9
6
9
7
2010 Key Platform, 2020 Key Platform

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Geely Group
Daimler Group
BMW Group
Tata Group
PSA Group
Fiat-Chrysler Group
Ford Group
Hyundai Group
General Motors
Group
Renault-Nissan
Group
Toyota Group
Volkswagen Group

92
Macro-to-micro Implications of New Business Models.

New business models in the United States will be driven by technology services and platforms that seek to
create innovative data driven models, partnerships, and convergence between products and industries.
Business models to
revolve around clicks;
increase in percentage of
consumer-initiated
business and well as
virtual transactions and
payments, resulting in the
creation of new consumerfunded business models;
multimodal selling
platforms; online C2C
transactions
Eco-innovation; more
models such as pay-asyou-go for car sharing,
bike sharing, and
insurance
New Selling
Platforms
Lower Price
Points
New business
models in the
United States
will promote
more peer-topeer and datadriven models
for innovation.
Green
Growth
Innovative
Marketing
Aggressive and
structural cost
reduction,
ultra low-cost cars
- Consumers to become
brand ambassadors and
advocates for social
media; reduced corporate
spending on conventional
market surveys;
popularization of new
research approachesfor
example, research on
consumers social media
behavior
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Mega Trend 9Future of Infrastructure
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Indian InfrastructureAn Estimated Trillion Dollar Investment

Private investment constituted about a third of infrastructure investment in the 11th Plan, and this is projected
at 50% for the 12th Plan period.
Infrastructure Planned Outlay, India,

20132017
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Cumulative Infrastructure Planned Outlay

by Segment, India, 20132017
148
172
201
231
272
Total
Infrastructure
Planned Outlay
$1.02 trillion
(20132017)
Roads and
Bridges
154
16%
Railways
123
12%
Ports
41
4%
Airports
20
2%
Telecom
174
17%
Others*
512
50%
Note: Infrastructure figures are in $ billion.

*Others include Electricity, Irrigation, Water Supply and Sanitation, Storage, oil and gas pipelines.
Source: Government of India; Frost & Sullivan
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Infrastructure Funding Mechanisms

There is an anticipated funding gap of nearly $165 billion that could be addressed by Infrastructure
Development Funds (IDFs) and other financial instruments.
Funding Source for Infrastructure During

12th Five Year Plan, India, 20122017
32%
India launched its first ever IDF in 2014 (IIFCL

Mutual Fund) which will mobilize funds from
insurance and pension sectors to fund long term
infrastructure projects. This represents a total of
$165 billion opportunity to financial
companies in India.
IDFs
$165
billion
*Others
148
17%
17
51%
Government Funding
Expected Private Funding
Gap
*Others include funding from PPP, lending from commercial banks,

external commercial borrowing, and foreign direct investments
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Proposed Infra Debt Funds
Size
Citigroup and ICICI
$2.0 billion
IIFCL
$1.0 billion
IDFC
$1.5 billion
IL&FS & LIC
$2.0 billon
Source: Asian Development Bank South Asia Working Paper
Series (September 2014); Frost & Sullivan
96
Investment in Mass Transit Facilities by 2020

Urbanization is driving the creation of satellite towns and with that, increasing the need for mass
transport systems.
India to have 70 satellite towns by 2020 and

12 cities to receive one or more forms of
mass transport by 2020
1 Satellite
Township
26 Satellite
Townships
More than 6
Satellite
Townships
Metro Transit
System
Bus Rapid
Transit System
Source: Ministry of Urban Planning of India; Frost & Sullivan
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Future Transport Infrastructure Plans

High speed rail and dedicated freight corridors to boost industrial growth.
Diamond Quadrilateral
(GQ) Project
(high speed rail)
Dedicated Freight Corridors

(DFC)
Other Potential Higher

Speed Rail Projects
Delhi
Delhi
Ludhiana
Ahmedabad
Kolkata
Dankuni
Kolkata
Mumbai
Mumbai
Mumbai
Chennai
Chennai
Kochi
Largest high speed rail project
connecting 4 metros
Faster logistics, industrial, and job
development
Dedicated lines for freight, allowing

heavier and longer trains to
operate
Trains on dedicated freight
corridors will speed up to 120 km
per hour
Plans have been proposed to run

at least 4 other HSRs in India
MumbaiAhmedabad high-speed
rail corridor will be the first one to
operate
Source: The Hindu, Business Line; Frost & Sullivan

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Future Airport Modernization Plans

The number of passengers is expected to reach 421 million with 713 operational airports and $120 billion
investment in the 12th five year plan to 2017.
Airports Modernization Plans, India, 2020
Major International Airports

Domestic Airports, Upgradation
Greenfield Airports
Delhi
Kolkata
Airport Infrastructure Modernization

In 2011, India had 479 airports
(International: 17, Domestic: 454, and
Greenfield: 8).
In 2020, the Ministry of Civil Aviations
goal is to have 714 operational airports
(International: 16, Domestic: 673, and
Greenfield: 25).
Investment opportunities in airport
infrastructure development and new
aircrafts is estimated at $110 billion.
Mumbai
Focus Areas
2013
20112020
Passenger Traffic
160 million
421 million
Cargo Traffic
2.3 million tons
11.9 million tons
New Aircrafts
$80 billion
Airport Infrastructure
$30 billion
Chennai
Source: Airports Authority of India, 2010; Frost & Sullivan

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Port Development InitiativesBelow Par Performance

There is a proposed investment of $64.49 billion by 2020.
1
2
3
Okha
Bhavanagar
Varavai
Surat
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Ratnagiri
Panaji
Karwar
Cozhikode
Maritime Agenda, India, 2010 2020
Sea Port Development Plans, India, 20102020
Additional Port Capacity = 2,204 MT

Planned Investment = $64.49 billion
Major Sea Ports
Key Features
Intermediate Sea Ports
Maritime Agenda 2010 to 2020 intends to

develop the Indian Ports capacity to 3,200 MT
by 2020.
Alaphuzha
Nagapattanam
Karaikal
Ennore
13 Machilipattanam
2 3
By 2020, the proposed investments in major

ports is expected to be $26.81 billion; in nonmajor ports it is expected to be $37.68 billion.
4
Jawaharlal Nehru Port

Mumbai (11.3)
Marmagao (8.8)
Paradip
(9.8)
Vishakhapatnam
13 14
(11.9)
Ennore
5
6
7
New Mangalore
(5.5)
Cochin
(3.1)
Note: Figures in parentheses
indicate share of port traffic.
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Additional Capacity, India, 20102020
Haldia
(8.3)
Content 12
8
11
9
(10.7)
Chennai
(10.8)
10
Tuticorin
(4.5)
Additional Capacity
(Million Tonnes)
14 Kakinada
Kandla (8.3) 1
Anticipated traffic at Indian ports would grow to

2,484.41 MT by 2019 to 2020 from the present
level of 849.89 MT at a CAGR of 11.3%.
1,200
699
1,020
485
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010-2012
2012-2017
2017-2020
Metro
Non Metro
Source: Ports Association of India; Maritime Agenda 2020; Frost & Sullivan
100
Mega Trend 10Future of Energy and Resources
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Indias Future Energy Mix

Energy demand will grow to 1,508 MTOE in 2030, which is 2 times the current demand. India will need to
import nearly a third of its demand in 2030.
Key Energy Consumers, India, 2030
Primary Energy Demand,

India, 2010 and 2030
24%
1,600
25%
1,508
Industrial
1,400
Primary Energy Demand (MTOE)
Others**
Commercial
*Others
1,200
10%
Residential
Nuclear
1,000
800
600
41%
Renewables
Hydro
691
Import vs Domestic, India, 2030
Gas
30%
Liquids
Imports
400
Coal
Domestic
Capacity
200
0
2010
2030
70%
*Others include Agriculture/irrigation and government sector.
**Others include Waste and biomass.
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LiquidsFuture of Oil Availability in India

The Ministry of Petroleum estimates that by 2035, India will be a 100% oil import market.
Oil Supply ChainOil Imports, India, 2000-01 to 2012-13

Crude Oil Production/Imports (Million Metric Tons)
200
185.8
Production of Crude Oil
171.7
180
Imports of Crude Oil
159.3
Around 80% of Indias oil

requirement is met through
imports making India highly
susceptible to oil supply and
pricing shocks.
163.6
160
132.8
140
121.7
111.5
120
100
80
90.0
74.3
78.7
95.7 99.5
Due to large dependence on

imported fuel, the price of
domestic fuel is expensive.
82.5
60
40
32.1 32.1 32.7 32.7 33.8 32.1 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8
20
38.2 38.2 38.2
The increasing dependency

of crude imports would drive
the importance of fuel
efficiency.
Year
Source:Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Frost & Sullivan
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Natural GasFuture of Gas Availability in India

India is likely to be in CNG deficit for the next 20 years time as demand outstripping domestic supply by
nearly two times by 2030.
Natural Gas Demand, India, 20122030

800
Power plants
getting priority
allocation of
domestic CNG
10,000 MW
capacity of power
plants lying idle
because of nonavailability of gas
600
500
625
Deficit
442
Imports
400
358
227
250
307
272
300
250
248
180
130
200
100
713
63
101
0
2012-2013
72
103
2013-2014
Demand
Natural Gas Demand (MMSCMD*)
700
Availability of
auto CNG a
challenge
81
111
2014-2015
Domestic
Supply
100
121
2015-2016
157
2016-2017
172
2019-2020
212
2025-2026
231
2029-2030
Indias natural gas market has been in a supply deficit, primarily due to low domestic production and
inadequate transmission and distribution infrastructure.
*Million metric standard cubic meter per day.
Source: Gas Authority of India Limited; Frost & Sullivan
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CNG InfrastructureProposed/Under Construction Pipelines

Opposition from states and non-compliance by private players has delayed the establishment of Southern
and Eastern Grids.
Proposed Pipeline Routes, India, 2013
Fact
GAIL
RTGIL lost rights to lay pipeline in October,

2012 when it failed to meet construction
targets.
GSPL
Srinagar
RTGIL
(Scrapped)
Routing Centre
Bhatind
a
Jodhpur
Tamil Nadu has opposed the laying of

GAILs Kochi-Salem-Bangalore pipeline due
to alignment issues.
Guwahati
Bhilwara
Vijaypur
Gaya
Jagdishpur
Udaipur
Bhopal
Mehsana
The Tamil Nadu Government has requested

the court for additional time to submit a
revised proposal which has effectively
stalled GAILs current efforts.
Howrah
Ahmedabad
Haldia
Hazira
Paradip
Implication
Dahej
Malavaram/
Kakinada
Goa
Bangalore
Mangalore
Chennai
Salem
These have delayed the establishment of

the Southern grid and will likely affect the
availability of Natural Gas in the southern
region.
Tuticorin
Kochi
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Pipeline under
legal dispute
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Frost & Sullivan

105
Fuel Prices
There is little to differentiate between CNG and diesel by 2014 due to price revision in CNG prices, which
might lead to CNG being unattractive in existing markets.
New Delhi Fuel Prices, India, 2013 and 2014
80
($1.15)
72.40
($1.21)
76.00
Fuel Price (/litre or kg)
70
($0.83)
52.54
60
($0.83)
58.00
($0.90)
57.00
($0.72)
45.60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Petrol
Diesel
2013
CNG
2014
It has been assumed that that quantum of increase in diesel prices will be higher after elections and would reach
58 due to government endeavour to reduce under recoveries on diesel.
The LPG price remains stable due to market pricing and global market outlook for LPG.
A CNG price correction is due to the increase from 4.2US$/btu to 8.4US$/btu.

Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas; Frost & Sullivan
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RenewablesFuture of Renewables Availability in India

The target for renewable energy capacity addition under the 12th five year plan is 30,000 MW, which will
take the share of renewable energy to roughly about 17% of the total installed capacity.
Percent Renewable
Installed Capacity,
India, 2010
12%
Expansion Plans for Renewables

Installed Capacity, India, 20122022
Percent Renewable Installed

Capacity, India, 2017
12th Five Year Plan

(1 April 201231 March 2017)
17%
Renewables
Solar
10,000 MW
Wind
15,000 MW
Small Hydro
2,100 MW
Biomass
2,900 MW
Total
30,000 MW
13th Five Year Plan

(1 April 201731 March 2022)
2010
Renewables
Solar
16,000 MW
Wind
11,000 MW
Small Hydro
1,500 MW
Biomass
2,000 MW
Total
30,500 MW
2017
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RenewablesFuture of Renewables Availability in India (continued)

By 2025, nuclear and renewable energy will be the only two natural resources available for meeting
additional power needs of India.
Electricity Scenario, India, 2025 (GWh)

Increase of coal imports by 200% and
crude oil imports by 100% by 2025.
Power tariff hikes in the range of 25% to

40% more than once every year.
Power deficits leading to more than 10%

reduction in industrial output or increase
in production costs due to diesel based
power backups.
Implementation of 60 solar city
programmes aimed at 10% reduction in
projected conventional energy demand
by 2018.
Source: IDFC; CMIE; MoWR; Grail Research; Planning Commission; Frost & Sullivan
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Future of Water in India

Increase in population, urbanization, and growth in agriculture and industries leading India to an impending
water stress by 2025.
Water Cycle, India, 2013
Cities reaching out to distant
water sources as far as 250
to 450 km
Growth of water
management techniques
include micro-irrigation, rain
water harvesting, and water
shed management
$176 billion investments in
irrigation and waste-water
treatment projects by 2017
and beyond
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Future of Food in India

A silent revolution in Indias food supply chainsboth traditional and modernis driving Indias food security
and bridging the gap between demand and supply.
Food Projections, India, 2025
Initiatives to Meet Future Food Demand

Linking of production clusters with major
consumption areas via fast multi-modal transport
system for perishable items
Rise of Modern Private Food Wholesale and

Logistics and backward integration by retailers
$43 billion provisions in the XII plan for

developing agri-marketing infrastructure,
warehousing, and cold chain development
Supply
Demand
$378 Billion budgetary support in the XII plan

for agriculture diversification and improvement
of infrastructure
Note: Figures are in million tonnes.

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Mega Trend 11Health, Wellness, and Wellbeing
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111
Healthcare Market Outlook for India

Health Care Market, India, 20112018
Market Status, India, 2013
181
16%
64
2011
Market Nature
Fragmented
Market Penetration
Rate
Medium
Market Stage
Growth
2018F
Note: Figures are in $ Billion
Healthcare market growth driven by rapidly growing population, rising income levels, increased
insurance penetration and an increased prevalence of lifestyle-related diseases.
6.5 physicians
per 10,000
population
compared to
global average
of 14.2
Over 40,000
hospitals in
India
9 beds per
10,000 people
as compared
to global
average of 29
beds
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Growth Avenues for Segments

Total Healthcare Market: Growth Avenues for Segments, India, 20122017
Growth
Avenues
Healthcare
Delivery
Services
Medical
Imaging
Medium
Low
Patient
Monitoring
Implants and
Consumables
Pharmaceuticals
IVD
Low-cost
Hospitals
Single
Specialty
Chains
Day Care
Centers
Telemedicine
Wellness
Centers
Medical
Tourism
Health
Insurance
Healthcare
Information
Technology
High
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Growth Avenues for SegmentsHealthcare Information Technology

The rise in the demand for quality healthcare facilities among the rapidly expanding middle-class and affluent
population increases the adoption of HCIT solutions.
HCIT Market: Revenue Forecast, India, 20112018

1,600.0
1,400.0
1,200.0
Revenue ($ Million)
Market growth
is fueled by
increase in the
population,
changing
disease profile
and increasing
disposable
income from
2011 to 2018
1,000.0
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
Other Revenue
Software Licensing Revenue
2011
228.8
76.3
2012
286.0
95.3
2013
357.5
119.2
2014
446.9
149.0
2015
558.6
186.2
2016
698.2
232.8
2017
872.8
291.0
2018
1,090.0
363.8
Year
Note: Software licensing includes hardware application licensing but does not cover system applications.
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Growth Avenues for SegmentsCurrent Level of IT Adoption in Indian

Hospitals
CDSS
Low
High
1
CIS
RIS/PACS Low
LIS
Low
TeleLow
medicine
EMR
Low
1
Here 5 denotes 100% adoption IT in Hospitals

NE81-MT
High
High
5
High
5
Low
High
5
High Low
5
High
High Low
5
Low
Low
High Low
5
High
Low
Low
High Low
5
High
Low
Low
High
High Low
5
Low
High
High
High Low
5
High
Low
Low
High
Low
High
1
High
High
1
High
1
Low
Low
High
1
High
2
Low
Low
1
HIS
More than 250

Beds
100-250 Beds
50-100 Beds
Less than 50 Beds
Low
High
High Low
5
High

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Emerging Cloud-based Delivery of Healthcare

Cloud computing gaining traction and creating tangible value in real-world industries.
Benefits of Cloud-based Delivery of Healthcare, India, 2013

Company
Cost
Benefit
Time
Benefit
Resource
Utilization
Flexibility
Scalability
Other
Benefits
Narayana
Hrudayalaya
WIPRO
IMI Mobile
Max Healthcare
Shell Lubricants
J&K Government
Dr. Reddys Lab
AICTE
KPIT Cummins
Redbus
Flipkart
IndiaMart
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Mega Trend 12Future of Mobility
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Indias Mobility Trends

Integrated mobility solutions in the future will provide door-to-door integrated mobility solutions.
Car Sharing and

Pooling
Ride Sharing
eHail
Zoomcar
Bla Bla Car
Ola
Myles
Trip Da
MyGaadi.com
Carzonrent India
ZingHopper
Uber
Micro Mobility
Solutions
Bajaj RE60
Quadricycles

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Car SharingAlternative to Owning a Car

Car sharing is nascent, but taking cues from the global market.
Opportunities
Low-car ownership rates
Limited parking for private vehicles
Insufficient public transport
Challenges
Car Sharing
and Pooling
Zoom, a self-driving car
sharing company in India,
is currently the second
largest club in the
developing world with 100
cars in fleet and over 7,000
active users
Unique barriers such as preference to own a vehicle rather than

share/rent
Emergence of other alternative models such as Uber, self-driving
rentals, call taxis
Local Preferences (based on EMBRAQ Survey in Bangalore)
Preferred price: Rs. 200 per hour
Preferred locations: residential complexes, offices, airports, public
transit stations
Preference for New Cars, mostly SUVs and luxury vehicles
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Ride SharingAlternative to Local Trains
Opportunities
Crowded trains and metros
Cheaper alternative to trains
Community-based system alleviate safety concerns
Ride Sharing
Bla Bla car ride
sharing service
launched in India in
2015 has started
offering the global
community service in
Delhi
Challenges
Insufficient public transport

Competition from auto rickshaws which make more than 229 million
passenger trips per day

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Ridesharing Market in India

The unavailability of on-demand transport systems makes city-to-city ridesharing the next game changer in
Indian market, with no restraints placed on peer-to-peer ridesharing by the government.
Ridesharing: Ridesharing in India, 2014
First country in the Asian market for the company
$100 million funding received for expanding to emerging markets including India
Plans for monetarizing the service after a year of incubation
India is predicted to become on the companys largest market
Unavailability of tickets on short notice for intercity trips should be taken advantage of
Long distance city-to-city trips
Primary launch locations are New Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore
Aims to fill the gap in the long-distance market as an alternative to bus and train
Ladies Only option for women seeking all-female rides
Targetting the age group between 20 to 35 and creation of car club memberships
Corporate community to be made the focus due to the commute schedule
Available only to employees of organizations which are shortlisted and verified
Users login with facebook credentials and confirm their corporate affiliation with an
email verification
B2B and B2C business models by licensing the platform for corporations, and
subscription model for users
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121
Ola and UberMiddle-class Indias New Ride
Opportunities
Easy bookings from any location through mobile phone or Web
sites
Easy payment options (online banking, mobile banking)
eHail
Safer ride: driven only by qualified licensed (commercial) drivers,

women chauffeurs are also available
No refusal from drivers: drivers cannot deny services to travel to
undesirable location
Ola currently operating

60,000 cabs in 52 Indian
cities and plans to
expand services to 200
cities by end of 2015
Challenges
Inconsistent Pricing: (E.g., Surge pricing or primetime pricing)
Lack of government mandates and clarity in organizational system

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QuadricyclesReplacing Autos
Opportunities
Safer alternative to autos; carrying minimum of 3 passengers
Intra-city movements only
Micro Mobility
Solutions
Driven only by licensed (commercial) drivers
Challenges
Bajaj RE60, one of
the first to be
debuted and piloted
in India
Regulation to ensure fair pricing and enforcement

Lack of government mandates and clarity in organizational system

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Car Sales Forecast

Car sales in India are expected to reach 5 million units in 2020 and expected to reach 7.5 million units by
2025.
Car Sales Forecast, India, 20092025

CAGR (FY2014FY2020) = 13.1%
CAGR (FY2014FY2025) = 10.5%
8.00
7.54
7.00
Car Sales (Million)
6.00
5.26
4.75
5.00
4.25
3.76
4.00
3.27
3.00
2.55
2.68
2.62
2.51
2.80
2.09
2.00
1.57
1.00
0.00
FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015f FY2016f FY2017f FY2018f FY2019f FY2020f FY2025f
Assumptions: GDP Agriculture estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6.7%

Urban Population estimated to grow at a CAGR of 2.8%
Diesel Prices Estimated to stabilize at around INR 75
Central Interest rates to stabilize around 6.3%
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Note: Diesel Prices for New Delhi

Source: SIAM; Frost & Sullivan
124
Indian Car Market

India to is expected to become third largest car market in the globe by 2020 and is estimated to exceed the
United States by 2026.
Car Sales, Global, 2020
China
20.1
US
8.5
India
5.3
Japan
3.7
Brazil
3.6
Russia
3.2
Germany
3.2
UK
2.5
France
2.2
Italy
2.1
Key: The values are in Million

Source: LMC Automotive; SIAM; Frost & Sullivan
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Opportunity Pyramid 2014

Most of the opportunity today exists in the 5 to 10 lakhs segment for the vehicle manufacturers.
Opportunities in Vehicle Market, India, 2014

Volume Share
Luxury
market
High Cost:
>20 Lakhs
3%
Premium sedans
and SUVs
20%
37%
(21 models)
Sedans, premium hatchbacks

and C-SUVs (65 models)
OEM Focus today with new model/
Segment creation opportunity
Micro Cars, low cost hatchbacks, and vans

(33 models)
Middle to
Premium:
10-20 Lakhs
Characters
Competent with
features
High value for money
High volume
Good space
Low to
Middle:
5-10
Lakhs
Low Price:
0-5 Lakhs
30%
^Number of models are rounded and may not be accurate.
*Prices ex-showroom Delhi.
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126
Opportunity Pyramid 2020

India to have 35% share of 10 to 20 lakhs vehicles from Sedan and SUV segment in 2020 due segmental
shift.
Opportunities in Vehicle Market, India, 2020
Volume Share
High Cost:
>20 Lakhs
10%
Luxury
market
35%
Customer shift
from hatchback
to SUVs and
sedans
30%
Sedans, premium hatchbacks,

and C-SUVs
Characters
Loaded with features
Premium
Sedans
and SUVs
Micro cars, low cost hatchbacks, and vans
Stylish exterior and

interiors
Competitive engines
Middle to
Premium:
10-20 Lakhs
Low to Middle:
5-10 Lakhs
Low Price:
0-5 Lakhs
25%
^Number of models are rounded and may not be accurate.
*Prices ex-showroom Delhi.
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127
Conclusion
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128
From Macro to MicroTaking Mega Trends from Information to

Strategy Implementation
Macro
Micro
Analysis of
Opportunities
and Unmet
Needs
Mega Trend
Selected trends that
impact businesses and
markets
Impact on
Future Product/
Technology
Sub Trend
A sub-layer of trends that
has a wide ranging impact
Impact to Industry
Visualising the roadmap of
these critical forces through
scenario-building and macro
economic forecasts

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Mega Trend MatrixUnderstanding Implications of Key Mega Trends

on the Indian Economy
Future
Economic
Growth
High
The Middle
Bulge
Generation Y
Degree of Impact on Indian Economy
Bricks and Clicks

Urbanization
She-conomy
Future Infrastructure
Smart Cities
Innovating
to Zero
Space
Jam
Health, Wellness,
and Well-Being
Value for Many

Business Model
Connectivity
and the Internet
Economy
Future Energy
Power Generation
Low
eMobility
Low
Degree of Certainty
Note: The size of the bubble represents the scale of opportunity within each Mega Trend.
These Mega Trends have been plotted based on quantitative and qualitative reasoning.
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High
130
Macro to MicroImpact of Mega Trends on Cities, Businesses, and

Personal Lives in India
Mega Trend
Impact on Cities/Economy
Macro
Urbanization
Impact on Business
Micro
City infrastructure to become integrated,

green, and intelligent in terms of transport,
energy, healthcare, and buildings
New mobility solutions
Industrial hubs and investment regions to

be created along the DMIC
Specialized hospitals in city centers

and walk-in clinics in city suburbs
Adverse effects on human

healthprevalence of diabetes
and psychological stress to
increase
Gen Y will prefer public transportation; bus

passes to be replaced with biometric cards
Energetic workforce and highly skilled

labor
Future life to be largely dependent

on digital empowerment
Urban lifestyle to get completely

digitalized, on-demand and on-the-go
Personalization and customization of

products
Working age population to increase

competitive advantage for India
Online marketing tactics will increase

to target Gen Y
More women in workforce will boost India

GDP by 4-8% by 2020
Improved business results: Higher

representation of women board
members attain significantly higher
financial performance than those with
the lowest representation
Hub and Spoke Business model for

different industries (e.g., logistics)
Infrastructure projects to see a lot of PPP

synergies for deployment of customized
city solutions
Gen Y and
Youngest
Working Age
Population
She-conomy
Impact on Personal Lives
New Work Culture such as Working

from Home to become more
prevalent
Products and solutions supporting
single mothers will increase
Exorbitance to be replaced by
smart choices, such as public
transport
Schools to offer flexible school

schedules to support dual-job
households
Egalitarian relationships will
become stronger with more
flexible role negotiation
Prevalence of single mother
households, late marriages, and
children will increase

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131

Personal Lives in India (continued)
Mega Trend
Macro
Impact on Business
Micro
Middle Bulge
Creation of affordable compact housing

options
Slum settlements will evolve to better
living standards with better amenities
Shopping centers, parks, and
entertainment hubs will thrive on
increase in middle class income
Low-cost business modelsIntegrating

supply chains, mobile retailing, pop-up
stores in slums
Affordable products, multi-packs, bundled
products will be more popular
Branded products to launch their own
cheap alternatives
Standard of living, house and

auto ownership will increase
Individual wealth to be financed
by loans
Middle class ownership of
branded products will increase
Wealth
Watchers
Creation of luxury hotels, recreation, and

resorts
Increase in creation of luxury apartments
with penthouses and real estate sprees
Luxury auto brands

Memberships and exclusive offers
More asset management services
Luxury lifestyle and multiple

homes in different locations
Outbound tourism will flourish as
the wealthy will vacation more in
exotic locations
Economy
Cities will see upscale infrastructure

facilities
Increase in commercial and industrial
zones
Creation of upgraded urban shelters
Profits in business investments

Reverse Brain Drain to see foreigners
take senior posts in MNCs holding
massive financial power
Good returns in businesses dealing with
luxury items, home furnishings,
restaurants, automobiles, and travel
agencies
Better living standards

Increase in household
consumption
Increased ownership of
expensive goods and services
Space Jam
Use of satellite-based tools in city

planning
Moving halls will adapt satellite
technology
City weather can be well monitored by
the use of satellite technology
Satellite technology used by farmers to

learn about the weather conditions and
prices of their products in local cities
Use of nanotechnology has resulted in
cheaper water purification appliances and
cheap medicines and drugs
Satellite TV has a given wide

range of entertainment options
Satellite phones makes
communication possible, even in
the most remote areas

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Mega Trend
Macro
Connectivity and
Data Traffic
Impact on Business
Micro
Creation of technology-enabled city

services
Cloud computing to become more

integrated
Digital mapping and networking

facilities among the cities
Creation of wireless connectivity

enabled products and unique mobile
application
Intelligent IT-enabled traffic system
Increased use of online mobile

advertising and mobile banking
Innovating to Zero
E-mobility
Cities to see innovation concepts like
Increase use of green technology
Zero Discharge Sewage City
More use of recycled materials
Zero Fatal Accident Cities
Zero Discharge Cities
Carbon Neutral Cities
The increased use of electric vehicles

will require charging stations
Charging stations will be multifaceted, offering other products and
services such as confectionary
kiosks, diagnostic tool for cars, and
garage advisory services
Infrastructure
Development
Fast and congestion-free transport

system in and around the city
Increase in number of flights
connecting the cities
Selling e-mobility solutions such as

battery leasing, energy subscription
packages, and after-sales services
Market green solutions such as solar
panels, wind turbines and CNHG to emobility client base
Increase in airports, ports, and air
traffic will create business opportunities
for raw material suppliers such as
cement and steel and facilitators such
as travel operators
Life will become easier with home

shopping and home banking
facilities
With increased connectivity,
people can video conference in
car, train, or plane
Environmentally conscious
lifestyle
Electric cars will satisfy the new

generations need for value for
money, comfort, safety,
performance,
fuel consumption, reliability, and
design
Travel time will be reduced
considerably due to sustainable
transport infrastructure

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133

Mega Trend
Macro
Impact on Business
Micro
Bricks and Clicks
Public areas such as railway

stations will feature online or
virtual kiosks
Online retailing will be integrated with

the other channels of retailing to
provide a unified experience
Adoption of mobile commerce will
increase with growing popularity of
location based deals and group buying
sites
Shopping will not be restricted by time

or place
Consumers will become more frugal
with access to bargain sites and
coupons
Use of branded merchandise will
increase with availability of large
discounts
Health Care Industry
Indian hospitals will evolve to

become medical centers
emulating the best practices in the
West
Medical centers will encompass
medical schools, inpatient, and
outpatient care
Medical Infrastructure: medical
labs, hospitals, diagnostic centres
Point-of-care services will expand

beyond hospital territories to mobile
vans and e-healthcare
Healthcare will be made more
affordable for the poor, without any
quality compromises
Rehabilitation centres, medical
textiles, medical equipment
Training and education: doctors,
managers, nurses, clinical research,
healthcare management
Telemedicine and medical outsourcing
Uptake of health care insurance will

increase
Gen Y, which prefers customization,
will demand supplemental or
voluntary insurance plans
E-healthcare sites will become as
popular as a ticket booking or bargain
site with the average Indian
Energy
India will shift its focus from the

traditional base-load plants to a
combination of base-load and
peaking plants, which are are
designed to help balance the
fluctuating power requirements
Focus on alternative sources of energy

such as biomass, solar, and kinetic
Every function in the value chain will
adopt a green strategy
The average Indian will become more

conscious of their energy
consumption
Use of smart grids, smart meters, and
appliances with smart technology will
constitute future homes
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NE81-MT
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Appendix
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136
Research Methodology for India's Income PyramidPoverty Line
2010 NCAER Threshold for Poverty

Per month income per household
Identifying the Poverty Line
Urban
Less than Re 7,030
Rural
Less than Re 4,860
Average
Re 5,947
Annual
Re 71,364
Percent of People
Below Poverty Line
Total Population
Number of
Number of
People Under
Households Under
BPL
BPL
2012
29.5% (Rangarajan
expert panel
72,600,000 (divided by
1,219,000,000
363,000,000
estimate)1
Calculation
of BPL1
size 5)
Percent of People
2020
Below Poverty Line
Total Population
Number of
Number of
People Under
Households Under
BPL
BPL
20.5% (estimated
based on historical
average households
57,359,000 (divided by
1,399,000,000
286,000,000
averages)
average household
size of 5)
1Based
on RBI governor C Rangarajan Report

NE81-MT
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Research Methodology for Indias Income PyramidIncome Slabs and

Estimates
2010 Estimates: Taken from

NCAERCMCR Household
Survey, 2010
2010 Estimates: Taken from

NCAERCMCR Household
Survey, 2010
2020 Estimates: Based on

growth rates estimated using
NCAER forecasts for 2015
and 2025

NCAER forecasts for 2015
and 2025
Identifying the
Number of People
Identifying the
Number of People
Poor
Based on the NCAER

definition of deprived, less
than Re 1,50,000
Segmented the NCAER slab

into two: category below BPL
(less than Re 70,000) and
category with income
between Re 70,000 and
150,000 or poor
Based on the NCAER

definition of aspirers, with
annual income of between
Re 150,000 and Re 340,000

the historical data from
NCAERCMCR Household
Survey, 2004

growth rates calculated using
historical data from NCAER
survey

growth rates from NCAER
historical data
Identifying the
Number of People
Affluent,
Rich, and
Highly
Rich
Middle and
Upper
Middle Class
Identifying the
Income Bracket
2010 Estimates: NCAER

CMCR Door-to-Door
Household Survey, 2004,
and NCAERCMCR
Household Survey, 2010
Identifying the
Number of People
Lower Middle Class
Identifying the
Income Bracket
Identifying the
Income Bracket
Identifying the
Income Bracket
Based on the NCAER

definition of middle class, Re
340,000Re 1,700,000
Based on the NCAER

definition of rich from 2004
survey
Segmented the NCAER slab

into two categoriesmiddle
(Re 340,0001,000,000) and
upper (Re1,000,000
2,000,000)
Clear rich: Re 200,000

5,000,000
Sheer rich: Re 5,000,000

10,000,000
Super rich Above Re

10,000,000
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Transport Corridor in India

The $13.6 billion Golden Quadrilateral Transport Corridor to Carry 40% of Indias Urban Road Traffic and to
Connect 500 Million Population by 2025.
Implications for 2025
To connect 3 Mega Cities and 21

smaller cities with populations of
more than 1 million in 2025
Generate employment for over 5
lakh people every day in 2025
6 lane expressways to be
completed in 2025 to facilitate
higher transport volume and
operations
Dedicated freight lanes to
support 60 percent of freight
transport traffic in 2025
Image source: NHAI.org

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Mega Corridors in India

By 2021, populations of more than 527.17 million will be connected by Mega Corridors.
Number
Name of the Mega Corridor
States
Population
(Million)
Hyderabad-Ananthpur-Hindupur
Andhra Pradesh
29.1
Hyderabad-Vijaywada
Andhra Pradesh
10.3
Hyderabad-Nizamabad-Adilabad
Andhra Pradesh
2.8
Srikakulum-Vishakhapatnam-Kakinada-Guntur-Nellore
(Coastal Corridor)
Andhra Pradesh
25.3
Mumbai-Thane-Ahmedabad
Maharashtra
58
Mumbai-Nasik-Dhule-Amravati-Nagpur
Maharashtra
26
Pune-Ahmadnagar-Aurangabad-Jalgaon
Maharashtra
7.6
Bangalore-Belgaum
Karnataka
38.5
Mysore-Bangalore-Kola
Karnataka
8.6
10
Mangalore-Udipi-Karwar (Coastal Corridor)
Karnataka
3.9
Source: Population Foundation of India; Planning Commission of India; Frost & Sullivan
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Mega Corridors in India (continued)

By 2021, populations of more than 527.17 million will be connected by Mega Corridors.
Number
Name of the Mega Corridor
States
Population
(Million)
11
Mehsana-Gandhinagar-Ahmedabad-Vadodara-BharuchSurat-Valsa
Gujarat
48
12
Ahmedabad-Rajkot-Junagarhsa
Gujarat
13
Bhavnagar-Porbandar
Gujarat
14
Jamnagar-Morvi-Gandhidham-Bhu
Gujarat
15
Chennai-Krishnagiri-Hosu
Tamil Nadu
30.4
16
Coimbatore-Erode-Salem-Krishnagiri
Tamil Nadu
13.4
17
Chennai-Cuddalore-Tanjavur-Karaikud
Tamil Nadu
4.9
18
Tuticorin-Nagarcoil
Tamil Nadu
2.8
19
Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor
Delhi, Mumbai, Rajasthan,

Haryana, UP, MP
203.6
Source: Population Foundation of India; Planning Commission of India; Frost & Sullivan
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Innovating to Zero in India
Zero Carbon Emission

State in India
Zero Carbon Emission:
Himachal to emerge Asias
first carbon neutral state.
The World Bank has agreed to
sanction a $450 million loan
for promoting sustainable
environmental growth in
Himachal Pradesh.
Zero Emission Car in India

Zero Tailpipe Emissions: Indian REVA
electric car is a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV)
The all-new electric REVA NXR to be
officially unveiled in 2012. The new Reva car
will be a 4-seater with a top speed of 104
km/hr, and the maximum distance covered in
a single charge has been doubled to 160 km,
compared to 80 km of earlier models of Reva
cars.
NE81-MT
Noida Zero Discharge' City

of India
4 new treatment plants (STPs)
with upgraded technology, at
a cost of $.03 billion, to make
Noida a Zero Discharge' city
by 2021.

142
Noida to be a 'Zero Discharge' City by 2021Case Study
Sewage System in Noida2011
Sewage treatment plants

(STP): 2 in number of 34
MLD and 27 MLD
The existing plants are all
based on the Upflow
Anaerobic Sludge Blanket
(UASB) system, a
technology that has become
obsolete
Sewage System in Noida2021 (Master Plan)
New sewage treatment plants (STP): 2 in

number of 69 MLD and 100 MLD. The
existing two plants will be with an
additional capacity to treat 25 MLD and
33 MLD.
The four additional and improved plants
will incorporate an upgraded, fully
automated technology called Sequential
Batch Reactor (SBR) technology.
Project initiated by the Noida Jal Nigam;
a cost of $30 million is proposed to
install the STPs.
The new plants will take care of the
sewer problem for the next 20 years and
can serve a population of 25 lakh plus.

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Forecasts of Electric Cars in India

Electric Vehicles Market: Forecasts of Sales in Units, India, 20092014
22,500
20,000
Units
17,500
15,000
12,500
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
0
PHEV
CEV
NEV
2009
810
2010
100
1,665
2011
900
8,220
NEV
2012
2,250
10,200
Year
CEV
2013
20
4,800
10,680
2014
30
8,300
12,100
PHEV
NEVs hold the majority share in 2009 and 2010 because Reva is the only company present in India.
CEVs such as Tara Tiny, Tata Indica Electric, and Mahindra Reva are expected to be launched in 2011.
Toyota Prius, a PHEV, is expected to be launched in 2014.
NE81-MT
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Product Life Cycle Analysis

Electric Vehicles Market: Life Cycle, India, 20092050
2009
Introduction
Early Electric
Vehicle
Adopters:
Reva
2012
Growth
Threats due to
Competitive
Technologies:
All vehicle manufacturers in
India launching CNG
variants of existing models
2020
Maturity
Growing Electric Vehicle

Adopters:
Tata Motors
Tara International
Mahindra
Bavina Motors
2040
Decline 2050
Saturation and Decline of

Electric Vehicles:
Fight for market share retention
and difficult to expand market
share significantly and growth of
fuel cells
The Indian electric vehicle market is at the nascent stage and will shift to the growth phase; it is expected to be
mature around 2025.
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New Mega Trends in India

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New Mega Trends in India

Macro to Micro Implications to Businesses, People, and Society

Research Scope, Objectives, and Methodology

Mega Trend 1Connectivity and Convergence

Mega Trend 2Bricks and Clicks

Mega Trend 3Social Trends

Mega Trend 4Economic Trends

Mega Trend 5Urbanization

Mega Trend 6Smart is the New Green with Smart Cities

Mega Trend 7Innovating to Zero

Mega Trend 8New Business Models

Mega Trend 9Future of Infrastructure

Mega Trend 10Future of Energy and Resources

Mega Trend 11Health, Wellness, and Wellbeing

Mega Trend 12Future of Mobility

Key Findings (continued)

Key Findings (continued)

Key Findings (continued)

Rise of Connected Devices in India

500 million mobile

2.5 billion mobile

1.36 billion cellular

3 connected devices for

18 mbps average Internet

Source: IDCEMC Study; Ericsson; Cisco; Frost & Sullivan

Connected Devices and Indias Internet Economy

Internet Economy Potential, India, 2020

Percent Breakdown of Internet Economy

*Internet economy here represents total ICT spending in India.

Mobile EconomyGrowth in Mobile Based Industries in India

Potential of Industries in India

Potential in Key Mobile Based Industries, India, 2020

With close to 900

There are nearly

= market size in terms of fee revenue (value added revenue) in 2020.

Source: GSMA; TRAI; RBI; Frost & Sullivan

India GDP ProjectionsIndia Needs to Grow at 10% per Annum

Nominal GDP, India, 20112020

Note: GDP figures are in $ Trillion.

Indias Race to Superpower5th Largest by 2020 if Growth

India's economy is 10th

India, growing at 7%, will

If India fulfills it vision to

India IncIndias Industrial Growth Forecast

Two Year Consistent High

Manufacturing Reaches New

Manufacturing grew a record

Transition from public stimulus to

India became second

Despite a serious drop in

The next industrial

Industrial Production Index (2007=100)

2018 Industrial Peak

Industrial Production Index

India in the Industry League TableThe Future Big Industries of India

Market Potential (2020)

650 million smartphones

120 million subscribers

$1 trillion value of exports

5 million cars by 2020

$977 billion retail by 2020

$15 billion by 2020

63 million million tonnes (mt) output in 2020

$65 billion spending by 2020