David E.

Tipping, SPE, BP Colombia, and Nstor Fernando Saavedra, SPE,

Ecopetrol S.A.
BP Colombia has been producing gas and condensate since 1996 from the heavily fractured Cupiagua reservoir,
located in the Piedemonte area of Colombia, 195 km northwest of the capital city of Bogot (Fig. 1). The field
contains an extremely rich gas condensate with a yield of about 280 STB/MMscf. Field data confirm that the
natural-fracture network in Cupiagua has a major influence on recovery and well production performance.

Fig. 1Location of Piedemonte.

Although fractures apparently play a major role in the recovery potential of the field, it is very
difficult to predict their behavior. For starters, reservoir data are not good enough to characterize
fracture density and orientation in the formation more than 200 m from a wellbore. Hence, a
multitude of fracture patterns are possible. Each pattern can lead to a recovery that differs
markedly from the others. Secondly, on a practical level, it is not possible to create multiple
detailed models representing the range of possible patterns in a realistic time period.
Ecopetrol, the Colombian state oil company, is directing its exploration efforts within the
Piedemonte trend where the Cupiagua field is located. This is an area of extensive tectonic
activity, so fractures are expected within the hydrocarbon structures. Ecopetrol seeks to benefit
from the experience of BP with Cupiagua and is using the field as a benchmark for evaluating the
potential of its exploration prospects. Instead of using simple volumetric methods and assumed

recovery factors, which are notoriously unreliable under these conditions, Ecopetrol is building
on the ideas used by BP to obtain better estimates of its potential in this region.
Cupiagua Field-Development Decisions
To maximize recovery and brake the decline, BP Colombia has implemented a gas-reinjection
plan since early in the field life when the pressure was still above dewpoint. Injection above
saturation pressure allows maximizing recovery from gas/condensate reservoirs.
However, with a voidage/replacement ratio of roughly 0.8, injection clearly cannot arrest the
falling pressure. The average reservoir pressure is about 5,000 psiasignificantly below the
dewpoint, so condensate accumulation is widespread. Under these conditions, given the richness
of the gas, the condensate saturation can exceed 35% of formation pore volume. Although gas
injection is less effective below dewpoint, BP has pursued its injection strategy because the gas
vaporizes a large fraction of the liquid, increasing recovery, and provides pressure support,
boosting well rates.
Reservoir modeling reveals the potential gains achievable with injection. Under natural
depletion, a maximum recovery of 18% of initial equivalent oil in place (IEOIP) is achievable.
However, with gas injection, the recovery can exceed 60%. Furthermore, the modeling shows
that this maximum recovery can be reached with the injection of less than 3 pore volumes of gas.
Apparently, gas reinjection is the obvious development strategy.
However, now that the field has undergone significant depletion with a reservoir pressure about
300 psia below the dewpoint, the apparent gains from injection may not be possible. In
particular, experience to date shows that sweep effectiveness is poor in certain areas of the field.
Within these zones, soon after the onset of injection, the gas-to-oil ratio (GOR) jumped
excessively, leading to a fall in condensate production. This suggests that fractures act as
communication channels directing the gas from the producers to the injectors.
Another factor that must be considered is the cost of an injector. Since well costs exceed U.S.
$30 million, an additional well must justify the investment. Reservoir characterization of
potential fracture networks shows that the incremental recovery is very sensitive to the fracture
pattern. The key question then becomes: How can we manage the inherent uncertainty of the
fracture patterns within the formation?
Early Field Development
BP made its early field-development decisions with simulation full-field models (FFMs)

consisting of about 55,000 gridblocks, each with dimensions of about 250280 m in the x-y
plane and 19 layers with thicknesses ranging from 10 to 50 m in the z direction. The FFMs were
built from static models based on the seismic structural interpretation with formation properties
derived from stochastic mapping. Predictions of potential development options were made after
matching the model to well-production dataprimarily, reservoir-pressure measurements,
condensate rates, and GORs.
The reservoir-management group recognized early in the field development that fractures could
play a major role in the depletion mechanisms. For example, wireline logs and cores disclosed
the presence of fractures. Further evidence surfaced soon after commencing gas injection. Within
certain regions of the field, gas breakthrough at producers precipitated jumps in GOR trends,
leading to a fall in condensate production. BP has dealt with this gas arrival by sealing off the
zones within producer wells where gas entry is problematic or suspending injection in the nearby
injector wells.
The reservoir engineers realized that this first-generation FFM could not reproduce the
preferential gas flow through fractures. It could not predict injection-gas arrival, nor was it
reliable for recovery estimates. Simple history matching of oil rates, by adjusting formation
permeability, led to excessive recoveries. To address the influence of fractures, in particular,
within gas-swept regions, a fluid compositional scaling technique was adopted. 1 This method can
be envisaged as applying transport coefficients to the constituents of the 12-component
hydrocarbon model. These coefficients reflect the density of the constituents and the fracture
configuration in the formation. Hence, methane in the coarse model arrives at a producer before
pentane. In addition, the components arrive at a producer in a region that has a higher intensity of
fractures compared with a low-intensity region.
The compositional scaling technique has provided a major step forward in predicting the impact
of gas injection in regions where the fracture pattern is known. However, for the northern
extension of the field, where well data are very limited, the fracture pattern is subject to
considerable uncertainty. Consequently, we decided to consider another approach for evaluating
the potential of this region.
Challenges Evaluating Remaining Potential
We recognized that future development decisions depend on the uncertainties in the remaining

hydrocarbon potential located principally in the undeveloped northern region. These

uncertainties are greater than during the early field life, primarily because of the following:

Drainage of the condensate from the undeveloped northern section to the depleted
southern region.

Uncertainty in the density and the orientation of the natural fractures.

Greater structural complexity in the northern region. For example, seismic anomalies
could indicate the sealing barriers that would sharply reduce pressure support.

As a result, we conceived a plan to address these uncertainties and to select the best exploitation
strategyinjection or natural depletion. The plan is designed to give the probabilistic
distributions of production profiles under both development scenarios. The procedure consisted
of building simple conceptual models to understand the in-situ flow mechanisms, deciding on an
approach for characterizing these flow mechanisms in an FFM for forecasting well performance,
and, finally, addressing the uncertainties. We outline below the methodology adopted for each of
these steps.
Characterizing Flow Mechanisms
Field data suggest that relative permeability effects, gravity drainage, and compositional changes
in the gas and liquid hydrocarbon phases potentially could all have major impact on hydrocarbon
recovery. To quantify these impacts, we built conceptual models to represent the potential
recovery processes.
We designed the horizontal models to be as simple as possible to focus on understanding the
flow mechanisms. These models contain about 4,000 active cells with widths of 25 cm, so the
dimensions are intended to approach the scale of fractures. Fig. 2 displays a typical fracture
pattern.

Fig. 2Conceptual model schematic of a typical fracture pattern. One-layer model with
100100 cells in the x-y plane, 25 cm fracture width.
Fluid pressure/volume/temperature analyses revealed that the hydrocarbon is a gas/condensate
with a liquid yield that can exceed 280 STB/MMscf. We have developed a 12-component
equation of state to model fluid behavior. Because of the high condensate yield, below saturation
pressure, the condensate saturation can exceed 35% of formation pore volume. Relative
permeability tests undertaken on core plugs in the laboratory show that part of this fluid is
mobileunlike most known gas/condensate reservoirs. The phase recovery at the surface
depends on the relative mobility of the fluid phases.
To simulate depletion scenarios, we initially assumed a matrix-only formation. We took relative
permeability measurements based on laboratory core samples to characterize the multiphase
flow. These initial models showed that recovery of the condensate and the gas is sensitive to
matrix permeability. Gas recovery is also sensitive to decreasing reservoir pressure. Laboratory
tests at Heriot-Watt U. show that the interfacial tension decreases with falling reservoir pressure,

leading to an increase in the relative permeability of the gas and the condensate phases.
However, the effect is more accentuated with gas.
We then sought to characterize gravity-drainage effects. A number of producer wells exhibited
behavior consistent with gravity drainage: Several downdip producers revealed GORs that
decreased as the reservoir pressure fell. Additionally, two updip wells have yielded GORs
increasing with time. We surmised that these GOR trends could, potentially, result from relative
permeability effects trapping gas or, alternatively, gravity drainage, so we built simplified sector
models reproducing the structural relief of Cupiagua to quantify the gravity drainage.
The modeling revealed that the vertical displacement of fluids was determined by the proximity
to faults in the dip direction. As expected, the fractures acted as channels for the gas to move
updip. On the other hand, the condensate tended to flow downdip along the periphery of the
fracture channels. With increasing depletion, the liquid accumulated at the base of these highpermeability channels. Within the model, a producer at these locations could yield a GOR that
decreased with time, as monitored in practice. Interestingly, we noticed this behavior only in the
immediate vicinity of the base of a fracture. Further away, the GOR increased with time.
The modeling results demonstrate that, under natural depletion, the maximum expected recovery
at the reservoir abandonment pressure of 3,000 psia is about 18% IEOIP (Fig. 3). Furthermore,
the recovery factor is not sensitive to the fracture density or the matrix quality. With injection,
however, the recovery factor is very sensitive to the fracture pattern and, to a lesser extent, the
matrix quality. Under the injection scenario, the recovery factor varies between 30 and 65%
IEOIP (Fig. 4). If we wrongly assume the fracture/matrix pattern, there will be a large error in
the field potential. To manage this huge difference, the next step of our evaluation strategy
consisted of a two-pronged approach: integration of field dynamic data and uncertainty
modeling.

Fig. 3Theoretical recovery with different fracture patterns assuming no injection.

Fig. 4Theoretical recovery with different fracture patterns with reinjection.

These observations highlighted the major role fractures have on the depletion. We sought to
exploit the field dynamic data to help constrain the possible fracture patterns. Ten years of static
and field surveillance data that included log interpretations, core production-rate measurements,

pressure-transient analyses (PTAs), gas tracer measurements, and fluid-compositional analyses

gave insights on potential fracture/matrix patterns.
The well tests proved to be invaluable for characterizing fracture configurations because the
pressure responses are sensitive to both fractures and matrix. Consequently, the PTAs from these
tests give estimates of permeability-thickness products (kh) for the matrix plus the fractures.
Core and wireline-log interpretations generally provide estimates of matrix permeability only.
With this information, we adjusted the matrix and fracture properties of the models so that the kh
compared with the well data.
Uncertainty Evaluation
We considered the conceptual discrete fracture network model results the cornerstone for
building representative predictive models. The recoveries in these models allowed creating
scaled relative permeability functions for the large gridblocks of the FFM. Additionally, these
conceptual models gave insights on the reservoir-description patterns that needed adjusting to
achieve a match.
For example, to match the declining GOR at downdip producers, we modeled the behavior seen
in the sector models by implementing high-permeability channels in the dip direction of the
FFM. These channels allowed the liquid to drain downward, as seen in the conceptual inclined
models. We felt that the match in the developed southern sector of the field indicated a realistic
fracture pattern.
In the northern sector, few well-control points existed; hence, multiple fracture configurations
were possible. We decided to look at possible patterns and evaluate their impact on the predicted
production profiles. In other words, we decided to determine the probabilistic distribution of the
production profile by adopting top-down reservoir modeling (TDRM).2 Essentially, this consisted
of creating multiple cases of possible reservoir-description scenarios and extracting the
predictions for each case. We started with Monte Carlo simulation on the reservoir parameters
believed to have a significant impact on the reservoir potential uncertainty. For the case of the
northern part of Cupiagua, the significant parameters leading to uncertainty are:

Pore volume because of resolution limitations of the seismic.

The matrix quality because of limited well data.

The fracture pattern because of the impossibility of characterizing the distribution more
than 200 m from a wellbore.

We chose TDRM because, although it begins with Monte Carlo simulation to select values for
reservoir-description parameters, it updates the parameter values obtained from Monte Carlo
simulation to give a history match to the production data. TDRM exploits a genetic algorithm to
find values that give an improved match. Our predictions were based on history-matched
reservoir realizations and narrowed the uncertainty range considerably.
Conclusions
The methodology applied above has been successfully applied to quantify the inherent risks in a
reservoir where the conditions have a major role in depletion performance and where these
conditions are subject to uncertainty. Furthermore, the principles of this methodology are being
applied to evaluate the potential of exploration prospects within the Piedemonte region, where
conventional dynamic-modeling approaches are unreliable.
Acknowledgments
The following individuals have been instrumental in putting in place the plan outlined above:
Marcial M. Chaverra, Peter J. Clifford, Richard J. Jolly, and Glyn J. Williams. We are grateful to
the partners of the Cupiagua fieldBP, Ecopetrol, and Totalfor permission to present this
approach. Additionally, we appreciate the independent insights of those who attended the
presentation at a meeting of the SPE Bogot Chapter, led by Alexandra Lpez, Jonathan
Mosquera, Mayuli Serrano, and Karen Sinza.
References
1. Ballin, P.R., Clifford, P.J., and Christie, M.A.: Cupiagua: Modeling of a Complex
Fractured Reservoir Using Compositional Upscaling, SPEREE.
2. Williams, G.J.J. et al.: Top-Down Reservoir Modeling, SPE 89974, presented at the
2004 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 2629 September, Houston.