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Assessing Vulnerability to
Climate Change in India
Architesh Panda
he Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth
assessment report observed that
the earths climate system, when compared with the pre-industrial era, has
demonstrably changed at both global and
regional scale. Further the report notes
that the global mean temperature may
increase anywhere between 1.4 and 5.8
degree celsius by 2100. This unprecedented
increase is expected to have severe impacts on various aspects of the climate
system including changes in the global
hydrological system, sea level increase
and changes in crop production.
A countrys vulnerability to climate change
is decided by the presence of appropriate
mitigation and adaptation options. It is
now widely recognised that developing
countries are particularly vulnerable to the
impact of climate variability and change
specially when compared to developed
countries. This is because in developing
countries ecological environments are fragile, the susceptibility of economic systems
to risks is high and the low income levels of
most citizens constrain their ability to cope.
The initial circumstances of each country in
terms of its climatic conditions, socio-economic setting and growth prospects will
also partly determine the scale of the social,
economic and environmental impacts of
climate change (Stern 2007).
Climate change is likely to impact all
the natural ecosystems as well as socioeconomic systems in India as shown by the
National Communication Report of India
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). Different
sectors like water resources, forests, agriculture, and coastal zones are projected to
have several potential impacts. It will
bring changes in hydrological cycles, rainfall as well as the magnitude and timing of
its run-off. However, the distribution of
the incidences of climate change will also
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Vulnerabilities in India
Among the most significant potential impacts of climate change on India are
changes in the monsoon pattern. Several
studies have shown that in general, the
mean monsoon intensity and variability is
expected to increase (Ashrit et al 2001;
Chung et al 2006; Kumar et al 2006).
However, each study arrives at this conclusion through different modellings and
is not necessarily specific about how much
the monsoon will increase. A 20% rise in
all-India summer monsoon rainfall and
further rise in total rainfall is projected
over all the states, except Punjab, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu which shows a slight
decrease (Kumar et al 2006). Thus, climate
change is likely to increase the variability
and uncertainty in monsoon patterns.
Agriculture and allied activities provide
employment to two-thirds of Indias total
workforce and contribute nearly 20% of the
countrys gross domestic product. However,
Indian agriculture continues to be fundamentally dependent on weather which
makes it sensitive to climate-induced effects.
Any changes in the climatic factors like
temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide
april 18, 2009 vol xliv no 16 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
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