Stat 201

Statistics for the Life Sciences

Chapter 18
Inference in Practice

We will not spend much time on section 18.5

Optional practice problems:
Ch 17 any odd numbered questions in the book
18.3, 18.5, 18.7, 18.11 (any odd numbered
questions)
Read Chapter 21
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Conditions for z procedures

1. How data were produced

Verify (ask)
SRS or Randomized comparative experiment
No nonresponse, data missing for other reasons,
or outliers

2. Shape of the distribution

Verify with histogram or via literature/experience

If small sample, population must be N(, )
If large sample, sample mean is approximately
N(, )

3. Known

1. Problems with data production

Not SRS. Could be convenience sample.
Not SRS. Sample comes from a more complicated
(random) sampling scheme.
Nonresponse and missing values.
Sometimes too badly flawed to salvage. E.g.
voluntary response surveys and uncontrolled
experiments.

 Problems with shape of the distribution

If population is normally distributed, sample mean

distribution is normal and z procedures are appropriate.
If small sample and skewed (or otherwise obviously nonnormal), cannot use z procedures
If moderate sample and roughly symmetric, z procedures
yield good approximate results
If large sample, Central Limit Theorem allows us to assume
sample mean distribution is normal even if population is
skewed. Z procedures yield good approximate results.
Z procedures are vulnerable to outliers!

Cautions about z-tests

Significance levels () are constructs for turning
continuous probabilities into yes/no conclusions
Choice of depends on goals
Given =0.05, there is no practical difference
between p-values 0.049 and 0.051.
Significance levels are more what youd call
guidelines than actual rules
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Cautions about z-tests

Significance depends on alternative hypothesis
P-value for one-sided test is the p-value for a
two-sided test with same H0
If uncertain about direction of difference, use twosided test

Cautions about z-tests

Significance depends on sample size
A large sample may lead to conclusion of
statistical significance for an effect that has no
practical significance
A small sample may lead to conclusion of no
significance when the effect is large
Always report the estimate (e.g. sample mean)
and confidence interval as well as p-value
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Cautions about Confidence Intervals

Margin of error only covers the error due to
random selection of the sample.
The errors due to undercoverage and
nonresponse are not included in the margin of
error.
Measurement error and bias due to
convenience/voluntary samples are not included
in the margin of error
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Example
A survey of licensed drivers asked Of every 10
motorists who run a red light, about how many will
be caught?
The mean result of 9 respondents was 1.92
Suppose it is known from a previous survey that
=1.83
A histogram for the responses shows a right-skewed
pattern
A 95% confidence interval for the population mean is
desired.does it make sense to compute one with
these data? Why?

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Example
A survey of licensed drivers asked Of every 10
motorists who run a red light, about how many will
be caught?
The mean result of 100 respondents was 1.92
Suppose it is known from a previous survey that
=1.83
A histogram for the responses shows a right-skewed
pattern
A 95% confidence interval for the population mean is
desired.does it make sense to compute one with
these data? Why?

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Sample Size Calculation

for Confidence Intervals
Margin of error = m =
n=

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Sample Size Calculation

for a Statistical Test
YOU ASK: How many experimental/study units do I need for
significance testing??
STATISTICIAN ASKS:
Significance level? How much protection do you want against
concluding significance when there is no true effect?
Effect size? How large of an effect is of practical significance?
Estimate of ?
Power? How confident do you want to be that you will detect
the desired effect size?
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Types of Errors in a Significance Test

Suppose that the H0 is true, we could collect a
sample that suggests that we reject H0
Suppose that H0 is not true, we could fail to reject
the null hypothesis

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Type I and Type II Errors

Type I error: Rejecting H0 when H0 is true
Type II error: Fail to reject H0 when H1 is true
Truth
about the
population

H0 is true
Conclusion
based on
sample

Type I error

H1 is true

Correct
Conclusion

Reject H0

(false positive)

Fail to
reject H0

Correct
Type II error
Conclusion (false negative)

In a significance test, what is P(Rejecting H0

when H1 is true)?

(This should sound familier)

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The power of a test against a specific H1 is the

probability that the test will reject H0 at a chosen
significance level () when the specified alternative
population value is true.
i.e. Power is the probability (%) of correctly
rejecting H0 in favor of a specific Ha
Power = 1 p(Type II error)
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 The smaller the significance level (), the larger the

required sample.
The greater the power to detect an effect (e.g. 80%,
90%, 99%), the larger the required sample
At any given significance level and desired power
Two-sided H1 requires a larger n than one-sided H1
to detect the same difference.
Detecting a small effect requires a larger n than
detecting a large effect
Reducing will reduce the required sample size
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Sample size calculation for hypothesis testing

can become complicated
Programs exist, but easily misused.
Visit a statistician

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