I trade 3 systems
1) a weekly position trading wealth building
Weinstein/Wyckoff system with my own checks. This is
my most important system as most of my money is put to
use this way.
2) a daily pattern based system used to trade swings in
bigger moves. I now pay less attention to this as my index
trading is taking a lot of time as I try to perfect it.
3) day trading system which is also acting as a method to
teach me about price structure . I am finding markets
really are fractal.
Must take the time to find out who you are, maybe a mechanical or a
based trader.
How much time you have to trade. In my opinion intraday swing trading is like a part time job &
needs to be treated as such.
Need patience to watch, learn & have confidence in yourself & strategy(testing is very hard with
discretionary trading)
By far the hardest form of trading(due to trading psychology-I know what you are thinking it is a
load of bull s but it is important)
Longer term trading for growth, to me is much more important than short term or intraday
trading.
Picking important turning points longer term will make more money for the average trader or
investor than day trading.
I started to learn intra-day in 2010 after being killed in the sideways moving Aussie markets.
After thinking about it, and losing a lot of money, I stated to think that true market
diversification might be trading in different time frames.
discretionary rule
What?
I use Ig markets cfds against market indexes, gold, oil ,Aussie 200 cash & look at
euro/used & $au/$used
Started with the dax mainly, but had to move to the euro stoxx50 after losing a lot
of money due to the nature of the market & struggling with my stop losses.
I needed to find what I wanted from these markets - know what your plan is before
you start ,otherwise it will frustrate - only income for me & are happy with 10/20
points
Need to know when to trade & when not to trade.
Tired , sick ,angry & when time could be better spent
When do you start with full positions-leave sim account.
What are markets?Most people see markets simply as price movement & look for
indicator or pattern set ups, to me this is only a small part of
intra-day trading.
After trading like this for a long time, giving away a lot of
money & really taking a
- confidence hit, I started to look at what
really moves markets.
I would look at stochastics , moving averages & breakouts for
example & trade them out of context . In my opinion most of the
books I had read were based on bull market breakouts &
simply did not work in bear markets & intraday trading.
I needed to know why I could not get a mechanical system to
work when everyone had told me this was the only way to go.
what makes you think that you are going to be one of the 10% that makes money .
One thing about spending 12 months feeling pain & frustration & disgust at losing thousands of
dollars is that you learn or its over quick.
You need to view all price movement from the perspective of other
traders & how price movement influences their decision making
In times of stress ,human actions become a lot more predictable & are carried out with greater
urgency. E.g.- When a position has moved against them & theyre in drawdown, at some point
theyre going to reach maximum stress & finally accept theyre wrong & exit their position.- More
simply at areas where traders are coming to accept theyre wrong.
Regret at missing a rally & having an impulse to just jump on before it moves further without you
- the fear of missing out can cause decisions in which we can profit.
Find the areas on a chart where other traders will make trading decisions , with good trade
management & patience then youve found an edge.
These areas are support & resistance on higher timeframes, swing highs & lows , changes in
trends , pivot points, news events(non-farm pay rolls),extended pullbacks, complex pullbacks(abc
moves) ,areas in the past where you have felt pain, & not letting changes in trends prove
themselves before we trade.
My biggest one is feeling regret at missing rallies & impulse buying. I call them regret bars.
Next candle or 4 min later it is a regret bar - oh why did I buy the top again
1)
DEFINE STRUCTURE
2)
DEFINE TREND
3)
4)
5)
6)
move. Framed by 30min , 1 & 4 hour support & resistance with major
attention paid to 30min structure.
2) Define trend used to asses trend direction - up , down or sideways.
Used to identify swing highs & swing lows on 5 or 3 min chart.
Used to see strength & weakness in extensions & pullbacks.
3) Strength & Weakness compare current price swings with previous
price swings in the same direction. We are trying to buy strength & fade
weakness.
Compare the momentum of the current price swing with the one in the opposite direction.
Seeing if current price is accelerating or decelerating , compare extensions & projection of price
swings.
Take note of every candle when it is finished & put into context with structure & our indicators
that we use on the trading timeframe. (3/5 min time frame).
4) Identify
Has 6 price principles most of my trading is done between S/R lines .we
use these to decide what set up to use.
I look for these on the trading timeframe.
state until the next s/r barrier , unless displaying evidence of weakness within the trend.
Second principle -
Weakness following the breakout the expectation is for a breakout failure &
reversal back within the trading range.
Weakness on the pullback the expectation is for a breakout pullback &
continuation, simply just a retracement move.
Fifth principle
Sixth principle
everything requires patience & waiting & if a move gets away from you
dont worry about it. remember the next 1000.
-TRY TO LOOK FOR BETTER ENTRIES ON THE LOWER TIMEFRAME 1 min or 25 tick
chart, these entries are more like buying at wholesale prices e.g. spikes, springs, breakouts,
patterns.
- Check support/resistance lines mark previous days high & low.
-Check direction & slope of moving averages lines.
Check every average after each 5 min candle has finished.
Like to really watch 9 period pivot point average & 20 EMA average.
-Check all pivot lines.
- Best trades are when 5 & 15 min. indicators are in line.
- Check price action & look at price extensions & price projections.
- Check divergences, trade in path of least resistance. Dont trade announcements, I dont
trade at US open time. Know what you want and the market you want to trade (Eg - 10 Points
on Euro Stox 50, 20 points on Dax). And whatever else you might want to use.
Opportunity is found at higher timeframe s/r levels, change of trend, trend line breaks,
pivot point lines ,
swing high / low pivots & pullbacks within a trend. It is identified in these areas by
weakness within the price action & trapping other traders into taking bad positions.
I use 5 price setups, 3 which occur at price support & resistance lines
And 2 which occur within a trend
1)
2) BOF a breakout failure, as price breaches an area of support or resistance & then
reverses;
3) BPB a breakout pullback, as price breaches an area of support or resistance & it
holds;
4) PB a simple ,single leg, pullback within a trend;
5) CPB a complex correction(multi-swing or extended duration) pullback within a trend.
non price setups include watching for trend line breaks on price & some indicators
- rsi & cci trend line breaks
alerts set when cci crosses +/- 50
.
I am playing with the aroon indicator (I use this on my main weekly trading) as it is a very
basic measure of highs & lows against time.
Also looking at a keltner channel / bollinger band break (john carter) in times of low volatility
to take away some of the screen time.
I FIND MOST NEW TRADERS LOOSE HERE-SWING LOWS HAVE NOT BEEN
BROKEN IN THESE SLIDE-UP TREND STILL IN PLACE
All my trade examples are basically taken the week after ATAA movie
night-did this so I could not cherry pick trades & to show the good & the
bad.
-smallest position size taken ,as I may have been forcing trades & trying
to save slides for power point. (not really a fan of paper trading as you
feel no emotion)-not good with computers.
My normal euro 50 size is 5 contracts as I am aiming for 10 points($100 a
night) as my trading gets better I will increase size.
TEST OFF MS2 SPRING TOOK PROFITS WHERE MOST WILL ENTER
Bof entry got out early-no reason to hold for a full target
Breakout pull back entry-felt better, but let the better one
go, close to getting points though
Was looking for a test entry but to much strength shown in fall
Held trade -but suspect risk reward as blue line below is 4 hour support
Made money , but not happy as it would have been high risk with full position , tst
may have been the better trade
Complex pullback or/& test entry second principle (up trend shows
evidence of weakness ,we expect a higher likelihood of a complex correction
rather than a reversal)
Up to swing high now looking for a breakout & will asses after breakout
3)Strength &
weakness
4)Future trend
direction
5)Visualise future
price action
tricky
For anyone who thinks the setups are a little simple , remember some of the
big boys are using similar ideas.
Bruce Vanstone( AI expert & speaker at the last ATAA conference)told me
that one of their better systems uses % moves around pivot point lines &
around key support & resistance lines.
They keep good stats & can back test these sort of setups easily.
You must keep a journal of what setups are working ,I keep hearing now that all
breakouts fail & we must now fade the breakout.
These AI people keep better stats than us I am now very careful in fading the
breakout.-this is what I did in 2009.
I will now pay much closer attention to the breakout pullback entry.
remember
- patience
-wheres strength ?
-wheres the weakness ?
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