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China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank, established on 16 January, 2012, is a trilateral collaboration
between the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Tsinghua
University, Beijing, and Southwest University of Political Science and Law (SWUPL),
Chongqing, China.
China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank, May 2013
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PRESIDENTS MESSAGE
Honorable Friends,
I am pleased to share with you the present Working Paper of the
China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank. This marks the beginning of a
series of analyses on various subjects of immediate relevance to
national development of Pakistan and China as well as regional
development based on a strong foundation of peace, stability and
prosperity. A multifaceted knowledge partnership between the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad,
Tsinghua University, Beijing and Southwest University of Political
Science (SWUPL), Chongqing, China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank is
dedicated to extending the third mission of universities of contributing to economic growth and societal progress from the national
setting to the China-Pakistan bilateral relationship and regional cooperation. The Working Paper adopts a systemic approach to the
challenges to and the opportunities for broadening the bilateral cooperation. The Paper proposes a simple and workable framework
for ensuring peace in the region through broad-based China-Pakistan collaboration underpinned by mutual economic cooperation.
Also highlighted is the way in which other countries in the region
can benefit from this bilateralism between China as the worlds second largest economy and Pakistan as the indispensable geopolitical
actor in the region. I sincerely hope that this analysis will contribute
to changing the currently dominant zero-sum tendency of geopolitical analysis in favour of a win-win analytical trend that transcends
either-or way of looking at relations amongst nations.
Amer Hashmi
President
China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank
CONTENTS
1. Executive summary
6
2. Introduction: The regional geopolitical dynamics
10
3. China and Pakistan: Mutual interdependence
12
4. Challenges as opportunities
13
4.1.
The US factor
13
4.2.
The Iranian factor
14
4.3.
The Afghan factor
15
4.4.
The Indian factor
16
4.5. Forging civil-military alliance in Pakistan for nation-building
17
4.6.
Limitations of bilateralism
18
4.7. Forging multilateralism
19
23
6.4.
China-Pakistan front
26
Figure 1: The mega-region of China-Pakistan cooperation
28
Figure 2: Chinese Eurasian land bridges
29
References
29
1. Executive summary
1.
This Working Paper takes stock of the
geostrategic challenges and opportunities to
help Pakistan and China maximise their cooperation with a view to enhancing the possibilities for peace and development in South and
Central Asia. It aims to suggest ways that will
foster not only strategic cooperation between
China and Pakistan, but also across the region with all interested actors. In this regard,
the Paper has underpinned the importance
of increased economic cooperation between
China and Pakistan as the cornerstone of
both sustainable China-Pakistan relationship
and enhanced regional development.
2.
This analysis tries to envision a wide
area of cooperation embracing Central Asia,
South Asia and also the Middle East, in which
multiple complementarities between Pakistan
and other countries are highlighted. For ensuring peace and stability in the region, it argues, there is a need to recognise the active
and positive role that each country can play
in ensuring equality of status, prosperity, and
opportunity for progress and development
open to all countries. To this effect, it advocates that peace and stability can be ensured
through region-wide cooperation aimed at
broad-based economic development.
3.
For Pakistan, the goal is to ensure
peace, security, development and economic
growth inside and outside its borders by actively cooperating with its immediate neighbours and the region at large. China is the key
strategic and economic partner of Pakistan.
There is a need to underpin the bilateral strategic relationship with deeper economic cooperation for broadening and deepening areas
of mutual cooperation.
4.
With Iran, the existing relationship
needs to be transformed into one that is capable of maturely addressing international concerns and maximising the positive potential of
Iran for promoting peace in Central Asia, Middle East and South Asia. Pakistan may use
its traditionally good relations with the Middle-
Domestic front:
16.
Actively pursue a policy of neutralising
militancy and associated extremist philosophies and ideologies, and implement socioeconomic development programs on a fasttrack basis in backward and underdeveloped
regions in the country to build social and political stability there.
17, Take all measures to achieve a stable and functional political system and culture
in the Country. A functional system shall be
clean and corruption-free, based on participatory involvement of the people coupled with
responsible interactive interdependence of
powers rather than unrealistic separation of
powers in the domestic polity.
18.
Improve governance by following universally acknowledged principles of administration to build a professional merit-based
bureaucracy and to define parameters of political oversight of government machinery.
19. Develop a new paradigm of government based on public-private partnership,
especially, in economic and social sectors.
Typically, a PPP shall consist of the provision
Regional front:
20. Open bilateral talks now with all Afghan ethno-political groups for building a
broad-based relationship with Afghanistan
in the post-US/NATO drawdown phase. This
should be carried out as a complementary
(not competitive) exercise in support of international efforts to build peace and stability in Afghanistan and restore normalcy in the
region. Historical Pak-Afghan relationship
should be made a basis for such an initiative.
This requires a separate bilateral effort in parallel to international efforts.
21.
Resume front-channel track-one talks
with India on all issues including Kashmir and
water resources.
22. Open a diplomatic initiative with all
regional countries (Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
CARs, Turkey, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri
Lanka, etc.) for taking them into confidence
regarding the proposed Pak-Afghan bilateral
talks and keeping them updated on it.
International front:
23.
Pursue an energetic diplomatic initiative to co-opt Saudi Arabia and Iran into efforts to diffuse tensions and prevent the exacerbation of the already dangerous sectarian
strife, including the Shia-Sunni schism, within
the Muslim countries. Pakistan is the worst affected in this regard and needs to focus its
energies in this direction.
China-Pakistan front:
26. Develop a broad internal consensus
on the proposed foreign policy and strategy of
Pakistan on China-Pakistan bilateral cooperation and take Chinese leadership into confidence. Establish comprehensive informationsharing mechanisms to keep them updated.
27.
The recent handing over of the Gwadar Port operations to China Overseas Port
Holding Company is a very encouraging development and must be followed up energetically.
28. Ensure peaceful environment for the
smooth Chinese management of the Gwadar
port to lead in time to city development, airport
and related infrastructure projects.
29. Pursue the Oil City Project, ship refueling and re-supplying Hub, and wet and dry
dock facilities for international shipping near
Gwadar Port.
30. Establish a special security plan and
infrastructure for the coastal belt of Pakistan.
31. Move forward on the energy, trade,
transport and industrial corridor plans including the expansion of Karakorum Highway.
32. Pursue development of dedicated industrial parks and special economic zones for
facilitating investment and joint venture industrial projects.
33. A large proportion of Chinese investments in Pakistan is concentrated in the public sector. More private sector investments
by China will help create a healthy balance
between public and private sector Chinese investments in Pakistan allowing China to compete healthily with countries like the US and
UAE which invest more in the private sector in
Pakistan as compared to China.
34. The 2006 China-Pakistan Five-Year
Development Programme for Trade and Economic Cooperation should be fully realised.
This means initiating bilateral projects in all
the sectors identified in the Development Programme i.e., Agriculture, Energy, Science and
Technology, Industry, Manufacturing, Minerals, ICT, Engineering Services, Technical
Cooperation, Education (setting up an Engineering University with Chinese support and
participation), and Infrastructure and Public
Works.
35.
Pakistans East-West and NorthSouth National Energy, Trade, Transport and,
Industrial Corridor complements the plans for
the development of Western China. The FiveYear Development Programme is a key to
unlocking the potential of this corridor for China-Pakistan economic cooperation and the
development of Pakistan and Western China.
Therefore, dedicated cooperation should be
initiated on this particular point.
36. Foreign-funded terrorism and militancy are real and present dangers to the stability of Pakistan and China as well as ChinaPakistan cooperation. China should enhance
Pakistans financial and operational capacity
to fight this menace and pacify Khyber Pakthukhwa (KPK) and Balochistan for increased
economic cooperation.
37. China-Pakistan cooperation should
prioritise balanced and mutually advantageous trade through the 2006 China-Pakistan
Free Trade Agreement.
38. Energy cooperation between China
and Pakistan should be increased as a prelude to the relocation of Chinese industry in
Pakistan and the integration of Pakistan in the
Global Production Networks (GPNs) of Chinese multinationals.
10
subject, proved very helpful in terms of understanding the multiple dimensions of ChinaPakistan relationship and cooperation.
2. Introduction: The
regional geopolitical
dynamics
47. Pakistan is strategically located between the twin forces of competition and collaboration in the mega-region that embraces
Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East, and
Caucasus. Central Asia and South Asia form
two contiguous strategic sub-regions of this
mega-region1. Since the beginning of the 21st
century, these two sub-regions have formed
the focus of international politics as a result
of the US-NATO war on terror in Afghanistan,
the next-door presence of a rising China, a
post cold-war resurgent Russia, and the hegemonic pretensions of India. US war of terror
generally was seen in reality as the sole superpower usurping the strategic void available
in Talibans Afghanistan and thus trying to exude the strategic effects, including containment of China and driving a wedge between
China and Pakistan. Pakistan sits right in the
middle of this regional geo-political dynamics.
This dynamic force influences the complexion
of both the foreign policy and the national politics of Pakistan.
48.
The presence of big, middle and small
powers in the regional politics both presents
challenges and provides opportunities that
create a cauldron of conflicting interests making the region inherently unstable and vulnerable to manipulation. Since ancient times, the
region has been periodically agitated due to
the hegemonic struggles between powers.
Regardless of the size and magnitude of the
national power of the countries involved, it is
not possible for any country - not even the
big powers like the US, China and Russia - to
pursue its policies by acting unilaterally in the
region. This has led to working alliances between small and big powers based on mutual
interests and common vision for the region.
49. Due to the constantly evolving configuration of forces in existence in the region
since the 1950s, China and Pakistan have
found it mutually beneficial to work together
for the greater prosperity and peace of the region. This has resulted in a durable bilateral
strategic relationship aimed at the preservation of mutual interests. Like all nation-states,
however, the two countries face challenges
intertwined with opportunities that simultaneously strain and strengthen the bilateral relations. And therefore, the primary challenge
that China-Pakistan cooperation faces in the
region is to correctly understand and deal
with the destructive and constructive currents
which run across the region. Common understanding of challenges and opportunities
needs to be forged between the two friends in
this regard.
50.
The conflicting and differing American
and Chinese notions of security are a potential
cause of instability in the region. The actions
considered defensive in nature by the Chinese are precisely those which are thought
by the Americans to be aggressive and vice
versa (Kissinger 2012). The different strategic interpretations will keep the possibility of
conflict alive. While it will hardly bring US and
China face-to-face and may even paradoxically result in increased cooperation between
the US and China to prevent such a face-off,
this difference of world-views can become difficult for their partners to handle, especially
Pakistan.
51. Related to this is the ever-alive possibility that there may after all be areas where
the US and China, despite their economic interdependence, may not reach convergence.
Given the dynamic nature of international system, it may not be advisable to pinpoint these
areas of non-convergence, but the principle
which will underpin this non-convergence
needs to be spelled out so that the subsequent identification of areas of non-convergence between the US and China becomes
convenient; any initiative or area developments which will lead to a qualitative leap in
Chinese power with the prospect of outdoing
US overall superiority in military and econom-
Parallelism is used here to mean an equally cordial and strong relationship with two competing powers. Except the relation of
neutrality, this parallelism is usually short-lived and cannot be sustained over a long duration owing to the natural tendency of
nations towards competition.
2
11
3. China and
Pakistan: Mutual
interdependence
53. Pakistan is important for China because the latters geo-strategic needs in the
region, to an extent, are reliably provided for
by Pakistan. Pakistan is conscious of the fact
that China has always displayed a special
concern toward its neighbours. Pakistan, being a vital part of Chinas strategic periphery,
is, as always, fully committed to fully support
Chinas peaceful development policies and
prevent destabilization of Xinjiang from within
its borders by Uighur-related militancy. Pakistan also recognises that China should be
afforded a broad-based mutually beneficial
opportunity of leveraging Pakistans geopolitical position to make up for the limitations
imposed by its own geography.
54.
Relationship of China with Pakistan is,
therefore, very important because it enables
China to both limit the regional ambitions of
India and enhance its standing with India. The
purpose is not to antagonise India but direct
the potential force of regional relations to become advantageous for China and Pakistan.
Indias Pakistan obsession and its territorial
disputes, reinforced by Indian hegemonic aspirations, strengthen ties between China and
Pakistan so that Indias anti-Pakistan ambitions can be kept under check. It is important
to mention here that the US has not been interested in offering a credible security to Pakistan in this regard.
55. The rise of China compels Beijing to
influence the regional game to suit the needs
of its own development and security while
keeping a light security footprint. The regional
strategy, from Chinas viewpoint, consists in
creating a synergy of cooperation with the
Central Asian Republics and the surrounding
countries. China intends to establish a beneficial network of trade and energy coupled with
a focus on programmes for the domestic development of its regional partners.
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56.
America, however, is focused on maintaining a situation in which it remains the predominant player in regional geopolitics in this
region. In this regard, it is determined to maintain a military presence in the area, especially
in Afghanistan. It is actively pursuing a strategic relationship with India to prop it up as a
regional power player with a view to checking
Chinas access to the Arabian Sea and the
Persian Gulf via Pakistan. This has also given
India a convenient umbrella to pursue its own
traditional hostile agenda against Pakistan.
Notwithstanding the alliance with Pakistan
in the war on terror, the US is employing all
means, both overt and covert, to pressure Pakistan into supporting its geo-political agenda
in the region and push Pakistan into accepting
a subordinate role to India. At the very least, it
seeks to keep Pakistan and Afghanistan in a
destabilised and anarchic state to achieve is
geo-political goals.
57.
Pakistan, in this situation, provides the
South Asian buttress to the positive geopolitical networking of China and Central Asia. It
can further contribute to the success of Chinese plans for the development of Central
Asia through its own domestic development
and increased trade, transport and energy
links with Western China, Iran, Afghanistan
and Central Asia.
58.
Pakistan stands to benefit and is,
therefore, deeply interested in enhancing the
overall effect of Chinas investments in Central Asia through the development of its national energy, trade, industrial, and transport
corridors leading to greater multi-faceted regional connectivity of which China will be one
of the key beneficiaries. As a consequence of
this development, Pakistan can also benefit
from connectivity to Chinese-built rail-based
land bridges linking Chinese cities of Shanghai and Chongqing to European ports like
Rotterdam and Antwerp (Engdahl 2012)3.
59. This connectivity, which would allow
China to cut a passage through land for the
movement of goods and services to and from
China, provides an alternative to US-dominated international waters. US domination of the
62.
Afghanistans continued status as a
key theatre of war has the considerable potential to change the precarious balance of military forces in the region in favour of the power
that more effectively influences Afghanistan,
both economically and militarily. Such a power
will be able to determine the extent and direction of regional integration which is naturally
influenced by Afghanistans geostrategic position. It will also influence Pakistans regional
policy significantly. In the present scenario,
the US is using its presence in Afghanistan to
reconfigure both Central Asia and South Asia
to suit the goal of American global predominance.
4. Challenges as
opportunities
4.1. The US factor
63.
The present US-NATO war in Afghanistan has already embroiled Pakistan since the
mid-2000s. The on-going US-NATOs Afghan
war against the Afghan Taliban is being used
to further rearrange geopolitical configuration
to the advantage of US-NATO. It is a foregone
conclusion that the US presence in Afghanistan will be redesigned to become an effective element of its strategy of encirclement of
China and Russia. The much-hyped US withdrawal will only be a drawdown in the number
of US troops on ground in Afghanistan. The
US shall continue to maintain a credible military presence in Afghanistan probably comprising ten to fifteen thousand Special Operations forces capable of dealing with both the
risks of propping up a weak Afghan government and regional terrorist threats (Sanger
2012). It will also readily facilitate huge reinforcements against any strategic ambitions
that may threaten US primacy in the region.
64.
An aspect of the current war in Afghanistan that escapes the attention of many is the
fact that, in many ways, this war is becoming
increasingly similar to the Opium Wars waged
by the European colonial powers of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Over the past
13
decade, under US and NATO watch, Afghanistan has progressed from zero opium cultivation to becoming the worlds major supplier of
opium-based narcotics. Today, Afghanistan is
practically a narco-state supplying more than
90% of the worlds demand for opiates valued
at over US$40 billion annually, with around
US$60 billion generated in revenue for traffickers in 2009 from Afghan opiates (United
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime 2010,
2011). Narco-money is now providing huge
resources to terrorist outfits in this region as
well as non-accountable funds for hostile foreign intelligence agencies pursuing their subversive agendas in the region. It is puzzling
that US and NATO allowed this to happen
under their noses and that they have no visible plans, either short- term or long-term, to
tackle this narcotic menace. Afghanistan as a
narco-state is a sure recipe for a failed state
which will continue to feed criminality and instability into the region.
65.
US strategic outlook considers American intervention in the regions surrounding
China and Russia as the most credible guarantee for ensuring stability in the Sino-Russian
regional neighbourhood and believes that the
security of a number of weaker states located
geographically next to major regional powers
depends (even in the absence of specific US
commitments to some of them) on the international status quo reinforced by Americas
global pre-eminence (Brzezinski 2012). This
strategic mind-set is enough to put at rest any
false hopes regarding American intentions
to withdraw any time soon from Afghanistan
or from the region at large. The continued
presence of US military forces and bases in
Afghanistan is a sure recipe for continued
conflict and anarchy in the region which will
negatively impact all plans for peaceful economic development of the region. Such a situation poses the biggest challenge to ChinaPakistan cooperation. However, there is no
other viable option but to assiduously pursue
this cooperation, predominantly in the nonmilitary aspects, as a counterweight to American military presence in the region to be able
to create a strong basis for future peace in Afghanistan and the region.
14
therefore, seek to befriend the Northern Alliance and thus aim at the prevention of the
accumulation of second-order power in Indian
hands over Afghanistan by strengthening its
bilateral relationship with Afghanistan, by revitalising once-strong Pakistan-Iran relations
and by bringing Afghanistan closer to China.
71. The mutual advantages of a deeper
Pak-Afghan cooperation should be highlighted. Indo-Afghan relationship, mainly focused on the Northern Alliance, cannot be
half as useful to Afghanistan when the pashtuns, who form almost 50% of the population
of Afghanistan, rejoin governance and the
Northern Alliance shrinks to its due size in
politics. Also, Pakistan should stress the pros
of geographical contiguity in its dialogue with
Afghan leaders. A stable Pak-Afghan relationship can open the doors for accelerated development of Afghanistan, Central Asia and
Pakistan where Chinas involvement in this
process of integrated regional development
will act as a catalyst. This would dovetail ideally with Chinas own development as well.
This will also allow Pakistan to gain access
across the Wakhan Corridor, which separates
Pakistan from Tajikistan, for reaching out to
Central Asia and becoming a reliable partner
in Chinas developmental strategy in the region.
72. Pakistan should, therefore, expedite
socio-economic bridging with Western China
and build complementary bridges into Central
Asia both through Afghanistan and Iran to link
up with Chinas vision of progress for Central
Asia. Troubles in Xinjiang and Muslim-led terrorism will cause serious friction in the smooth
development of China-Pakistan strategic and
economic relationship. In fact, Pakistan fully
recognises that the development of a strong
economic relationship with China depends
on the formers ability to completely defeat
militancy, terrorism and foreign-funded secessionist insurgency in Balochistan and assist
China secure stability in Xinjiang, which is
a core Chinese national interest. Therefore,
Pakistan is fully committed to helping China
achieve stability in Xinjiang. The causes for
friction have been, and will continue to be, ad-
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leadership class and the military, it is imperative that measures be undertaken to dispel animosity and distrust between them and build a
harmonious political-military working relationship based on mutual respect and confidence.
This is perhaps Pakistans biggest internal
political challenge. In this respect, the ball
is firmly in the court of politicians because a
harmonious and beneficial political-military alliance is only possible if we have a competent,
honest and visionary political leadership interested in the welfare of people and interested
in building a sustainable civil-military alliance.
In the absence of a wise political leadership,
the task of building a civil-military alliance
would be very difficult, though not impossible.
Building this civil-military alliance in the absence of visionary political leadership would
be predicated on the Pakistan Armed Forces
volunteering to actively participate in suitable
nation-building activities on a non-political basis in addition to their overall defence responsibilities.
87. Pakistan, at the moment, is suffering
from a fragmentation syndrome in which the
various elements of power are neither unified nor optimally synchronized. State as a
mechanism of social cohesiveness has traditionally and historically performed the function of a machine that transforms capabilities
of a nation into national power. However, the
Pakistani state has not been able to perform
this function as a result of which different elements of national power like, geography,
natural resources, industrial capacity, military
preparedness, population, inter-class collaboration, social cohesion, national character,
diplomacy, national morale and government
(Morgenthau 1985) are at cross-purposes.
88.
As mentioned above, external causes
collude with internal causes to destabilise any
national polity. A strong civil-military relationship in this situation would be critical for putting our own house in order, improving governance and internal stability, for intensifying
China-Pakistan relationship and for building
the momentum necessary for Pakistan to realise its geopolitical advantages maximally. In
this regard, the deep bonds between China
18
and Pakistan, both in the civil and military sectors, could prove to be useful in catalysing a
positive movement in the desired direction.
Saudi Arabia and Russia and natural gas production of America was second only to Russia
whereas China is heavily dependent on foreign sources of energy to fuel the extraordinary needs of its rapidly expanding domestic
economy; Americas population density was
one of the most favourable in the world at 31
per square kilometre way behind the world average of 49 per square kilometre while that of
China was 140; America is the only country
in the world that has absolute control of two
oceans whereas China does not enjoy this
two-ocean advantage (Friedman 2009: 1617)4.
93. Moreover, the technological edge of
America is unquestioned; while China is still
trying to catch up with the US in the field of
technology and busy building the tools of
asymmetric power projection, chances are
that America may have broken through the
known technological frontier such as the ability to militarise space, production of bionic
military capabilities through human-technological integration, natural disaster-activation
capabilities through seismic and meteorological manipulation, advanced forms of psychological warfare, cyber warfare, weapons
based on Nano-Bio-Information-Cognitive
technological convergence, etc. US defence
expenditure is also greater than the combined
military expenditure of the next ten economies
which include those of China, Russia and India (Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute 2012).
94. Second, China-Pakistan military cooperation is conditional and contingent on the
changing complexion of US-China relationship. It could be argued that this military cooperation was primarily initiated in a different
world environment of the Cold War when China was confronted with an India-Soviet axis,
on one hand, and Pacific US-Taiwan security
perimeter, on the other. The first thrust is long
extinct now but replaced to some extent by
a US-India axis; the second perimeter is unpredictable and potentially unstable owing to
US rebalancing of its force projection capabilities from the Atlantic to Pacific Ocean and
the potential for instability in South China Sea,
USA recorded a Gross National Income (GNI) of USD 14,645.6 billion in 2010 while China had a GNI of USD 5720.8 billion for
the same year (World Bank 2012). The difference was even greater in per capita terms for the same year; US had a per capita
GNI of USD 47,340 compared to USD 4270 of China (World Bank 2012).
4
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kistan with the framework for regional integration that can be utilized and influenced through
wise conduct and management of geopolitics.
The New Silk Road Initiative of the US State
Department should be viewed pragmatically
and if possible, co-opted constructively and
subordinated to China-Pakistan-led regional
integration.
102. 9/11 gave a license to the US to expand its global military reach, threat and application of force in the name of pre-emption
but the limits imposed by the very international Westphalian nation-state system which
the US dominates, have restricted its power to
redraw the geostrategic map to its preference.
So far, this dialectical relationship between
the logic of the system and the preferences of
the most powerful element in the system has
opened up a new field of action for emerging
global powers like China and regionally important players like Pakistan. This helps ChinaPakistan cooperation to improve its strategic
position by promoting peace and multi-polarity in the global inter-state system. China is already meaningfully utilizing this systemic limit
to the extension of US power not only in the
region but in the world at large by promoting
multilateral engagement to solve tensions in
the inter-state system.
103. Pakistan should follow Chinas lead
and pursue multilateralism to build protective relationships with countries in different
regions. It has already been pointed out that
building such multilateral relationships in
Southeast Asia and East Asia with countries
like Myanmar, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia
etc., will allow China-Pakistan cooperation to
deepen and provide a meaningful foil to aggressive Indian overtures towards Central
Asia. Using second-order neighbourhood relations with Central Asia, Southeast Asia and
East Asia would increase Pakistans geopolitical options. It shall also allow Pakistan to
escape the rough edges of American foreign
policy based on domination and subordination
to American interests.
4.7.1.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Russia
104. A very interesting passage occurs in
Sun Tzus, Art of War which says,
Land that is surrounded on three sides by
competitors and would give the first to get it
access to all the people on the continent is
called intersecting ground (Sun Tzu translated by Thomas Cleary 1988)
105. The intersecting ground refers to
the intersection of various national arteries
that link together various highway systems
in the region. Central Asia is the intersecting ground of the regional geopolitics where
Chinese efforts will meet Russian attempts
to reassert dominance. Improved relations of
China and Pakistan with Russia will mean that
the immense energy resources of Russia will
support Chinas growth and not be used to undermine the latters position in the region.
106. China-Pakistan-Russia
cooperation will find suitable support mechanism in
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
SCO is significant as the first post-Cold War
multilateral platform created directly as a result of Chinese initiative. It is an example of
how China is building asymmetric power by
utilising concepts, institutions and things innovatively. Russia may be apprehensive of Chinese pro-active role in SCO, yet enough room
exists in that multilateral body to promote
China-Russia synergy. After all, pooling of
strengths economically in SCO is more realistic than pursing anti-NATO ambition like Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
107. SCO is a manifestation of Chinas
policy of Good Neighbourliness which is being used to deliver its New Security Concept
succinctly enunciated by China in its Four
Nos policy namely, no hegemony; no power
politics; no alliances; and no arms race and
is a means for providing economic cooperation, trade opportunities, energy transport and
meaningful security cooperation (Ramo 2004:
52).
108. As China continues to rise economically, its foreign policy has witnessed
increased confidence manifested in the shift
from non-interference to creative involvement; a shift from bilateral to multilateral diplomacy; a shift from reactive to preventative diplomacy; and a move away from strict
nonalignment toward semi-alliances (Baker
and Zhang 2012). SCO offers an appropriate
platform for Chinas policy of furthering semialliances or strategic partnerships that avoid
the burly posture but deliver the security of an
alliance. China-Pakistan horizontal integration of the region will neutralise the big-power
advantages of countries like Russia, US and
India and compel an equal participation in the
processes of regional, social and economic
development.
109. This horizontal integration will serve
as support for allowing China some respite
and breathing space to divert more focus towards tackling its internal disparities. China
has followed a conscious policy of first developing its coastal belt and only later re-directing resources such as the relocation of industry and the development of infrastructure
in its Central, Northern and Western regions5.
As a result, there are potential divisive and
centrifugal tendencies inherent in this gap in
development between the coastal belt and
the hinterland. This development gap must
be closed as soon as possible before it can
be misused by external forces. Pakistans National Trade Corridor Project can be a helpful factor in the rapid economic development
of Western China and can help secure China
against the foreign subversive manipulation of
internal regional disparities.
110. There is a risk often betrayed by the
western analysts (Centre for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) 2011; The Christian Science Monitor 2011; Kocaman 2012;
Lillis 2012; Muckenhuber 2013) that attempts
may be made to enact a so-called indigenous
Central Asian or South Asian Spring within
Pakistan with a focus to thwart Chinese plans
for durable peace in the region. This could result in national fragmentation of Pakistan or
other Central Asian States along ethnic and
Former Chinese President, Jiang Zemin, personally shared this information, as far back as December 1996, with his friend, Dr.
Akram Sheikh, former Chairman, Planning Commission of Pakistan, and currently the Professor Emeritus, National University of
Sciences and Technology and Co-Chair of its China-Pakistan Joint Think Tank, Islamabad.
5
21
22
5. Proposed domestic
strategy for ChinaPakistan cooperation
118. The domestic situation of Pakistan
offers ample avenues for China-Pakistan cooperation. Pakistan urgently needs Chinas
strategic and financial help in tackling the
ominous dangers of economic meltdown and
the forces of separatism and disintegration
being sponsored by hostile foreign forces,
especially in Balochistan and KPK. Pakistan
is fully aware of the problems in the country
and possesses the resolve and national will to
deal with its problems decisively. The following are the areas where Chinese investments
and cooperation can make significant contribution for a more stable and secure Pakistan:
Defeating the TTP-Militancy and Extremism decisively followed by social reintegration.
Establishing security and socio-economic
development security in Balochistan and
Khyber-Pakhtunwa (KPK) through assertive good governance.
Reforming Pakistans dysfunctional political system and promoting honest and
responsible governance and encouraging
political-military cooperation.
Reformation of elementary, secondary
and tertiary education systems and their
expansion to cover full population.
Resolving the energy crisis in the country
on an urgent basis to ensure energy security within 3-5 years.
Achieving food sovereignty through
land reforms, corporate farming projects
owned by farmer cooperatives and hi-tech
intensive farming.
Aggressively pursuing public health to
eradicate epidemics, infectious diseases
and raising the nutritional profile of the
public.
Devising an urbanisation and housing
policy for Pakistan to provide affordable
housing to people through public-private
partnerships.
Establishing science parks to promote innovation and technological development
for economic growth.
119. Investing in the above-mentioned areas will enable the utilization of a part of massive Chinese finance capital to build the social and physical infrastructures in Pakistan.
One outcome of improved national social and
physical infrastructures would be the facilitation of overland trade between China, Pakistan and the Middle East and Africa region
through reduction in transaction and transportation costs.
120. This investment will be a powerful
means of soft power projection for China. It
combines the profit motive, the security motive of a peaceful neighbourhood, and the
human development motive all into one comprehensive package. This comprehensive cooperation platform will address the criticisms
voiced internationally against Chinas allegedly narrow focus on exploiting resources of
under-developed countries without any concern for human development.
121. Pakistan also needs to learn from
Chinas experience in acquiring knowledge
of the varied aspirations and ambitions of
different social groups in a country and the
need to devise mechanisms to enable these
groups to realise their aspirations. Without a
comprehensive framework for social analysis
and strategic approach, governments lack the
self-knowledge to better ensure internal tranquillity and national socio-economic growth.
122. This lack of self-knowledge and internal tranquillity leads to exploitation by hostile external forces. Chinas focus on acquiring national self-knowledge is based on the
23
awareness of the inextricable relationship between domestic and foreign policies, on one
hand, and domestic society and international
society, on the other. The paramount importance of mastery over the domestic situation
has moulded the Chinese approach which
stresses the importance of resolution of three
interrelated internal challenges, namely, resources, especially, energy; environment;
and a series of paradoxes in the process of
economic and social development, such as
uneven development between the coastal
areas and the hinterland, the contradiction
between fairness and economic returns, rural-urban disparity, the wealth gap, and the
tension between reform and stability (Bijian
2005: 3). Pakistan and China can form a
joint framework for the management of social
forces which transcends national borders and
benefits the region at large.
123. There is also a pressing need to bring
the civil societies of China and Pakistan closer and expand people-to-people contacts
that would further strengthen government-togovernment relationship. This will allow China
and Pakistan to learn from the local and popular traditions of civic association and help in
the development of Chinas and Pakistans
soft power.
124. We should seek to align commonalities in the internal development of China and
Pakistan and put forward an approach of
cooperation that is aimed at overcoming the
problems of economic inequality, uneven,
development, urbanization, climate change,
poverty, etc., in both China and Pakistan. In
this regard, we need to learn from Chinas
concept of Three Represents which states
that the party and the state should represent
the most advanced productive, the most advanced culture, and the fundamental interests
of the majority of the Chinese people. The
theory of Three Represents exhibits an advanced Chinese understanding of the notion
of state and country. This notion sees country
as a unity of territory and people inhabiting the
country and, therefore, the concept of security
tries to ensure the protection of the territory,
utilize its resources, organize its national life,
24
and secure the maximum welfare of the people, all at the same time. In the absence of
such an understanding and approach, Pakistan will not be able to devise a mature geopolitical strategy. For instance, Gwadar Port
project, without a friendly and satisfied local
population, will not be able to contribute to
the prosperity of Pakistan. Now that the operations of the Gwadar port have been handed over to the China Overseas Port Holding
Company, it will become even more crucial to
ensure peace in Balochistan.
25
(not competitive) exercise in support of international efforts to build peace and stability in Afghanistan and restore normalcy in the
region. Historical Pak-Afghan relationship
should be made a basis for such an initiative.
This requires a separate bilateral effort in parallel to international efforts.
138. Resume front-channel track-one talks
with India on all issues including Kashmir and
water resources.
139. Open a diplomatic initiative with all
regional countries (Iran, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
CARs, Turkey, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri
Lanka, etc.) for taking them into confidence
regarding the proposed Pak-Afghan bilateral
talks and keeping them updated on it.
26
Pakistans
East-West
and
North-
27
and business.
162. Contrary to the views of the Western
and Indian think tanks and analysts which
confuse the proper path forward for China-Pakistan cooperation by claiming that economic
cooperation shall gather momentum once
militancy and terrorism are completely curbed
in Pakistan, it must be emphasised that militancy and terrorism shall be defeated in Pakistan and stability secured in Xinjiang through
increased China-Pakistan economic coopera-
tion conducted simultaneously with combating extremism, militancy and terrorism. All
that needs to be done to understand this truth
is to extend the logic of domestic development of unstable regions inside any country
- which dictates that combating destabilising
elements and development of disturbed regions go hand in hand - to relations between
countries where bilateral relations between
China and Pakistan will prove a critical help in
defeating terrorism inside Pakistan.
28
Source: http://www.larouchepub.com/lar/1998/lar_glazyev_2513/2LandBridgeColor.html
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