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R(t)
t
Figure3.1: Reliability as a function of time
Let F(t) = the probability that the system will fail by time t. Then:
3.1
where F(t) is the probability that the system will fail by time t, which can also referred to as failure
distribution function
f(t) is the probability density function of the variables t (i.e., for the time to failure).
Assuming that the time to failure is described by an exponential function:
- t
3.2
hence:
f(t)= e
R(t) =
- t
= e- t
3.3
where = is a constant (from previous analysis in lesson 2 we found that for a negative exponential
function represents an instantaneous failure rate). Further analysis will show that = 1/MTBF.
The mean time between failures (MTBF) is the average of the lifetimes of a sample of n similar
items.
The illustration presented here primarily focuses on the reliability function in terms of the
exponential distribution, which is commonly assumed in many applications. Actually, the failure
characteristics of different items are not necessarily the same. There are a number of wellknown probability density functions, which in practice have been found to describe the failure
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characteristics of different equipment. These include the binomial, exponential, normal (or
Gaussian), Poisson, gamma, and Weibull distributions. Thus, one should take care not to
assume that the exponential distribution is applicable in all instances, or the Weibull distribution
is the best, and so one.
The rate at which failures occur in a specified time interval is called the failure rate during that
interval. The failure rate () is expressed as:
Number of failures
Total operating hours
3.4
The failure rate may be expressed in terms of failures per hour, percent failures per 1,000
hours, or failures per million hours. As an example, suppose that 10 components were tested
under specified operating conditions. The components (which are not repairable) failed as
follows:
-Component 1 failed after 75 hours.
-Component 2 failed after 125 hours.
-Component 3 failed after 130 hours.
-Component 4 failed after 325 hours.
-Component 5 failed after 525 hours.
There were five failures and the total operating time was 3,805 hours. Using Equation (3.4), the
calculated failure rate per hour is
5
0.001314
3,805
As a second example, suppose that the operating cycle for a given system is 169 hours, as
illustrated in Figure 2-2. During that time six failures occur at the points indicated. A failure is
defined as an instance when the system is not operating within a specified set of parameters. The
failure rate, or corrective maintenance frequency, per hour is given by:
number of failure
6
0.0422535
total mission time 142
Assuming an exponential distribution, the system mean life or the mean time between failures
(MTBF) is given by:
MTBF
1
23.6667 hours
0.0422535
When determining the overall failure rate, particularly with regard to estimating corrective
maintenance actions (i.e., the frequency of corrective maintenance), one must address all
system failures to include failures due to primary defects, failures due to manufacturing defects,
failures due to operator and maintenance errors, and so on. The overall failure rate should cover
all factors that will cause the system to be inoperative at a time when satisfactory system
operation is required. A combined failure rate is presented in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1: Combined failure rate
Consideration
a) Inherent reliability of the system
b) Manufacturing defects
c) Wear out rate
d) Dependent failure rate
e) Operator-induced failure rate
f) Maintenance induced failure rate
g) Equipment damage rate
Total combined factor
Assumed Factor
(instances/hour)
0.000392
0.000002
0.000000
0.000072
0.000003
0.000012
0.000005
0.000486
When assuming the negative exponential distribution, the failure rate is considered to be
relatively constant during normal system operation if the system design is mature. That is, when
equipment is produced and the system is initially distributed for operational use, there are
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input
Component A
Component B
Output
If it assumed that the failure behavior of each component is statistically independent from that of
the other then the reliability of the system is the product of the reliabilities for the individual
component of the system:
3.5
and
3.7
It is important to note that since the magnitudes of RA(t) and RB(t) are each less than unit, the
combined R(t) for a series-connected system will always be less than that of any individual
component.
Example:
1. As an example, suppose that an electronic system includes a transmitter, a receiver, and a
power supply. The transmitter reliability is 0.8521, the receiver reliability is 0.9712, and the
power supply reliability is 0.9357. The overall reliability for the electronic system is
= (0.8521)(0.9712)(0.9357) = 0.7743
2. A small plant is required to operate for 1000 hrs. It has four series-connected subsystems
whose MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures) are 6000 hrs, 4500 hrs, 10500 hrs and 3200 hrs.
What is the overall reliability of the plant. Assume exponential p.d.f behavior.
Solution: i= 1 / M.T.B.F
i.e.,
1 = 0.000167 failure/hr
2 = 0.000222 failure/hr
3 = 0.000095 failure/hr
4 = 0.000313 failure/hr
- (i)x 1000
Therefore R = e
= 0.4507
i.e., the probability of the plant operating for at least 1000 hrs is 45%. If the requirement were
reduced to 500 hours, the reliability would increase to about 67%.
For the two component system, the probability of system failure in time t, F(t) is = FA(t) x FB(t).
Hence,
R(t)
= 1 - F(t) = 1 - FA(t).FB(t)
= 1 - [1 - RA(t)].[1 - RB(t)]
= RA(t) + RB(t) - RA(t)RB(t) for 2-component system
3.8
R(t) = 1 - (1 - R)n
3.9
Reliability R = 1-(1-0.95)3
Note that this is a reliability improvement of 0.002375 over the previous configuration, or that the
unreliability of the system was improved from 0.0025 to 0.000125.
If the subsystems are not identical, Equation (3.8) can be used. For example, a parallel
redundant network with two subsystems with
reliability of:
With combined series-parallel networks, computation of the overall system reliability is obtained by
first evaluating the reliability of the redundant (parallel) elements. Then the overall reliability is
computed by finding the product of the "equivalent" series quantities.
The calculation of reliability of series and/or parallel networks assumes that the components are
operated within their useful life phases. But for reasons of cost and technical limitations many
components will have useful lifetimes much less than the expected life of the overall system. An
example is the life of the clutch plate in a car. This has to be replaced before its useful life (to) in
order to maintain a desired reliability of the system in time t much greater that to
3.3 Reliability Planning
Reliability is an intrinsic characteristic of the design of a system, it must be carefully planned,
determined, and specified as part of the overall planning of the system. The following activities
should be part of the reliability planning exercise:
a)
Establishment of the quantitative and qualitative reliability requirements for the system i.e.
for a given plant, for example, what should the acceptable reliability level be for a given
period of time. The figure can be stated as a probability or in terms of M.T.B.F.
b)
c)
Using a variety of design procedures, techniques and practices to ensure that components
have the necessary reliability level (or M.T.B.F). Such techniques could involve effective
component part-selection and control, derating (i.e. using components below rated stress
conditions, redundancy, etc.).
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d)
Analysis of the reliability of the resultant network of components with the help of blockdiagrams, mathematical models, stress-strength analysis (i.e. stress-strength relationship
under severe loading conditions - dynamic, shock, high temperature, etc., worst-case
analyses, etc.).
e)
Early in the study, establishment of the different ways in which components in the resultant
system can fail (failure modes analysis) and the effects of these failures on other elements
of the system (i.e. effect analysis).
f)
Perform reliability predictions and assessment, as more and more engineering data is
made available, to check the extent to which the system design has met requirements and
other factors identified through the allocation process. Can base predictions on analysis of
similar equipment, estimation of the reliability of active elements (i.e. smallest building
blocks) and also on stress analysis.
g)
h)
Perform Critical-useful Life Analyses (CLA). A critical-useful-life item is the one that
because of its short life, is incapable of satisfying the functional requirements imposed by
its application unless corrective or preventive maintenance is performed. During the design
phase, critical items are listed along with their expected life in terms of calendar time,
operating cycles, or system operating hours. This listing specifies the requirements for
maintenance, personnel support and spare parts.
i)
Formal design reviews, focusing on the evaluation of the characteristics of the system and
its elements as to how they meet the initially specified reliability requirements for the
system. The reviews cover each key stage of the system design process - including
conceptual design, preliminary system design, and detailed design checklists/questions are
developed covering aspects considered important from the reliability point of view.
j)
Conduct reliability test and evaluation to see whether the system meets the specified MTBF
requirements. This is achieved by operating the system in the prescribed manner for a
specified length of time while failures are recorded and evaluated as the testing is done.
The system is said to be O.K. if a minimum acceptable operational life is obtained.
k)