Cross Asset

Technical Vista
February 27, 2013

International Markets Analysis

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION

Important Disclaimer in page 2

Disclaimer

The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no
representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of such
information. In addition we have no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise notify a recipient
in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or
subsequently becomes inaccurate. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary
capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to any investment,
financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based
on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any
representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or
economic measure.
Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for information
purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor to enter into any agreement or
contract with Alpha bank or any affiliates.
In addition, because this communication is a summary only it may not contain all material terms and therefore this
communication in and of itself should not form the basis for any investment decision. Financial instruments that may be
discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors, and potential investors must make an independent assessment of the
appropriateness of any transaction in light of their own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits
of entering into such a transaction. By accepting receipt of this communication the recipient will be deemed to represent that
they possess, either individually or through their advisers, sufficient investment expertise to understand the risks involved in
any purchase or sale of any financial instrument discussed herein.

Risk Sentiment

0,6

Risk Appetite

Risk Appetite

0,35

0,35

0,1

0,1

-0,15

-0,15

-0,4

-0,4

-0,65

-0,65

-0,9

-0,9

-1,15

-1,15
Risk Aversion

8/07
11/07
2/08
5/08
8/08
11/08
2/09
5/09
8/09
11/09
2/10
5/10
8/10
11/10
2/11
5/11
8/11
11/11
2/12
5/12
8/12
11/12
2/13

-1,4

US Risk Sentiment Index

0,6

Risk Aversion

-1,4
8/07
11/07
2/08
5/08
8/08
11/08
2/09
5/09
8/09
11/09
2/10
5/10
8/10
11/10
2/11
5/11
8/11
11/11
2/12
5/12
8/12
11/12
2/13

Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index

Source: Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

Investors appetite for risky assets has declined, following inconclusive general election outcome in
Italy.
Renewed worries about the outlook of Eurozone economy have negative effect on risk appetite.
Expansionary monetary policy measures by the major central banks support appetite for risk.

EUR/USD

Some trend indicators (MACD, ADX, DMI: daily data) signal downwards move for EUR/USD in the
short term (1 month time horizon).
Support at the area of $1.3000 (year to date low of 4/1/13: $1.2998), at $1.2840 (200 DMA) and at
$1.2740 (21/11/12 low).
Taking into account that the RSI (9 days) is currently (28 points) close to oversold level, the potential
for a bounce up for the euro cannot be excluded.
Resistance at the area of $1.3290 (55 DMA) and at the area of $1.3320-70 (high of 25/2/13 & 21
DMA).

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is in short term corrective phase, however the broader mid term upwards trend has not
reversed. Some daily trend indicators suggest potential for further correction in the short term.
Support levels for USD/JPY at 90.30 (25/1/13 low), at 89.50 (55 days MA) and at 87.80
(16/1/13 low).
Resistance at the area of 93.00 (21 DMA) and at 94.99 (4/5/10 high).
Further resistance in the mid term at 97.15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 110.65-75.35).

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is in correction mode in the short term.

Support levels at 117.06 (23/1/13 low) and at 114.80-90 (10/1/13 low & 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement: 94.14 127.71).
Resistance at the area of 124.30 (21 DMA) and at 127.70 (6/2/13 high).

GBP/USD

GBP/USD remains in strong downwards trend. However, the pair has reached oversold territory in
the short term as indicated by RSI 9-day (19).
Support placed at $1.5070 (25/2/13 low), at $1.4825 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement: $1.4231
$1.6747) and at $1.4646 (17/6/10 low).
Resistance levels are found at $1.5300 (22/2/13 high) and at $1.5550 (15/2/13 high).

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP remains in strong upwards trend in the medium term. However, the pair may attempt to
react downwards in the short term, following the false break of significant resistance area
(0.8800).
Significant resistance at the area of 0.8800-30 (25/2/13 & 27/10/11 high) and at 0.8890 (31/8/11
high).
Support at the area of 0.8570-75 (13,15 & 26/2 low), at 0.8445 (11/2/13 low) and at the area of
0.8400 (55 DMA).

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF returned into consolidation mode close to 200-day moving average, after the pair
registered 20-month high (1.2569 CHF) on January 18.
Support levels at the area of 1.2100 (200 DMA) and at the area of 1.2000 CHF (SNBs minimum
exchange rate target).
Resistance is found at the area of 1.2240 CHF (55 DMA) and at 1.2387 CHF (13/2/13 high).

Light Crude Oil (WTI) 1st Month Future

10

Daily trend indicators (DMI, MACD) suggest that crude oil (WTI) may move to the downside,
targeting the 200 DMA.
Support levels at the area of $90.40/brl (200 DMA) and at $87.40/brl (76.4% Fibonacci
retracement: 84.05 98.24).
Resistance levels are placed at $94.46/brl (25/2/13 high) and at $97.07/brl (20/2/13 high).

Spot Gold

11

The gold price remains in downwards trend in the medium term. However, some tentative signs of
upside reaction are emerging.
Significant support levels appear at the area of $1,530/Oz (26/9/11, 29/12/11 & 16/5/12 low) and at
$1,480/Oz (1/7/11 low).
Resistance levels are placed at $1,630/Oz (21 DMA) and at $1,670/Oz (200 DMA & medium term
downwards trend line).

S&P 500

12

Some daily trend indicators (MACD, ADX, DMI) suggest that a corrective move for the S&P 500
index at the 1 month time horizon, is likely. This probably implies that the S&P 500 may remain
capped by the long term/historic high resistance level of 1,576 (11/10/2007 high), at least for some
weeks ahead.

Support levels for S&P 500 at the area of 1,470 (17/1/13 low and 55 DMA) and at 1,410 (200 DMA).
Further support at the area of 1,380 (28/11/12, 20/11/12 low levels).

DAX

13

The downwards break of 55-day moving average by the 21-day moving average may provide
initial signal for a potential correction of the DAX index.
Support levels are found at 7,410 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement: 5,914 7,872) and at the area of
7,120 (200 DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: 5,914 7,872).
Significant resistance level at 7,782 (28/1/13 high).

US 10YR Government Bond Yield

14

US 10-year government bond yield may test the support area of 1.70% (28/12/12 low & 200 DMA).
Strong support at 1.55% (16/11/12 low).
Resistance levels at 2.06% (14/2/13 & 9/4/12 high). Further strong resistance at 2.15% (76.4%
retracement: 2.39%-1.38%).

German 10YR Government Bond Yield

15

The German 10 year is in downwards trend in the short term.

Support is placed at 1.36% (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 1.127% - 1.734%) and at the area of
1.26% (10/12/12 low & 76.4% Fibonacci retracement: 1.127% - 1.734%).
Resistance levels are found at the area of 1.53% (55 DMA) and at 1.63% (25/2/13 high).

Correlation Matrix
S&P 500
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

-0,2639
0,3550
0,3635
0,0736
-0,1360
0,3357
0,2502
0,4194
-0,2193

-0,2845
0,2760
0,1980
0,3109
0,0689
0,0796
0,0422
0,2844
-0,3052

-0,3746
0,3504
0,1471
-0,0917
-0,1511
0,3289
0,3694
0,2669
-0,4855

-0,3133
0,3235
0,2043
0,1661
-0,2543
0,1320
0,2444
0,3150
-0,4354

-0,4177
0,4443
0,3087
0,1075
-0,2544
0,3223
0,2966
0,4220
-0,4316

-0,4171
0,3972
0,2164
0,3723
-0,3290
0,1152
0,1321
0,3595
-0,3914

-0,5871
0,5769
0,2378
0,1543
-0,4779
0,2380
0,3840
0,4369
-0,3452

-0,5034
0,4804
0,1624
0,3413
-0,4032
0,1463
0,2878
0,3645
-0,2714

-0,1459
0,0370
-0,1562
0,2898
-0,0982
-0,0696
-0,1884
-0,0898
0,2030

-0,3118
0,2024
-0,1349
0,3125
-0,1768
0,0402
-0,0516
0,0100
0,0146

-0,5562
0,5323
0,2972
0,1459
-0,3834
0,2849
0,3557
0,4562
-0,3312

-0,4254
0,3850
0,1831
0,2537
-0,3437
0,0800
0,2544
0,3306
-0,2761

-0,0569
0,1417
0,1457
0,0040
-0,0414
0,1392
0,1256
0,1636
0,3309

-0,1607
0,1748
-0,0002
0,1468
-0,0237
0,2422
0,0801
0,0806
0,2052

-0,0105
-0,0718
-0,1451
-0,0303
-0,0311
-0,1447
-0,0427
-0,1363
-0,1332

-0,0627
0,0995
0,0717
-0,1118
-0,0564
0,0687
0,2300
0,0997
-0,0295

10Y US

2Y GE

Government Bonds (Change)

10Y GE
2Y UK

16

10Y UK

2Y JN

10Y JN

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

-0,2708
0,3625
0,3600
0,0422
-0,1004
0,3865
0,2797
0,4175
-0,3805

-0,2026
0,2837
0,3743
0,1417
-0,1410
0,2404
0,2191
0,4105
-0,4218

-0,2928
0,3994
0,4692
-0,0037
-0,1552
0,3692
0,3497
0,5119
-0,3780

-0,2112
0,2507
0,3830
0,2257
-0,1709
0,1322
0,0937
0,4024
-0,4483

-0,4235
0,5071
0,3607
-0,0055
-0,2389
0,4249
0,4402
0,4855
-0,7167

-0,3116
0,4474
0,4332
0,0920
-0,1743
0,4597
0,4888
0,5357
-0,6769

-0,4092
0,4240
0,2731
0,0172
-0,3381
0,1857
0,3499
0,3885
-0,8131

-0,3211
0,3736
0,3260
0,1911
-0,3002
0,1332
0,2881
0,4256
-0,7753

-0,3098
0,3107
0,2671
0,1305
-0,2224
0,1633
0,1669
0,3294
-0,6136

-0,1718
0,1590
0,1743
0,1937
-0,1598
-0,0011
0,0070
0,2072
-0,6114

-0,2638
0,2830
0,3027
0,0137
-0,2083
0,1387
0,2296
0,3398
-0,7476

-0,1919
0,2410
0,3156
0,2116
-0,1926
0,0836
0,0924
0,3487
-0,7233

0,0968
-0,0580
-0,0167
-0,1945
0,0360
-0,0493
0,0956
-0,0388
0,0746

0,0666
-0,0542
0,1220
0,0825
-0,0217
-0,1321
-0,1528
0,0556
0,2079

0,0480
0,0192
0,1740
-0,0185
-0,1985
-0,2198
0,0322
0,1291
-0,0779

-0,0471
0,1120
0,2622
-0,0162
-0,2389
-0,1931
0,1660
0,2491
-0,1467

Significant negative correlation

Risk Aversion Index

RA EU
RA US

W TI

Current

2Y US
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.

60 Days (Percentage Change) Correlation Matrix

Equity Index
Commodities
Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI AC W orld
CRB
GOLD

Significant positive correlation

EUR positive correlation with commodities has increased.

GBP/USD positive correlation with equity prices is no longer evident.
US Dollar index exhibits significant negative correlation with commodities.
USD/JPY remains positively correlated with the US government bond yields.
Source: International Markets Analysis, Bloomberg

Technical Analysis Synopsis

Fixed Income

Cmdties

Equities

FX

Last_Price
DXY Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
S&P 500 INDEX
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr
DAX INDEX
CAC 40 INDEX
NIKKEI 225
Crude Oil 1m Future
GOLD SPOT $/OZ
Copper Furture 1M
*10Y GE Govt Yield
*2Y GE Govt Yield
*10Y US Govt Yield
*2Y US Govt Yield
*EUR 5 Yr IRS
*US 5 Yr IRS

W eek
81,659
0,25
1,3104
-0,69
1,5145
-0,10
91,64
-1,93
0,9301
0,09
0,86522
-0,57
120,07
-2,61
1,21878
-0,61
1496,94
-1,23
2572,74
-2,21
7599,25
-0,85
3635,8
-1,92
11253,97 -1,16
92,88
-0,30
1605,47
1,59
355,3
0,55
1,438
-13,1
0,07
-5,7
1,8619
-9,9
0,2382
-1,0
0,9537
-7,1
0,9213
-5,9

* Net Change to Date (b.p.)

17

Percent Change to Date

Month
3,13
-3,51
-4,47
-0,07
2,18
1,01
-3,71
-1,37
-0,08
-4,85
-2,31
-2,62
1,04
-4,76
-3,44
-4,81
-24,3
-19,9
-12,2
-2,4
-23,7
-10,9

Year
2,40
-0,68
-6,81
5,35
1,60
6,14
4,68
0,92
4,96
-2,43
-0,21
-0,17
8,26
1,12
-4,11
-2,74
12,1
8,5
10,5
-0,9
18,7
5,6

Monthly trend

Range
Upper

Uptrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Range Trading
Uptrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Downtrend
Downtrend
Downtrend
Range Trading
Downtrend
Downtrend
Range Trading
Downtrend
Uptrend

Lower

0,9361 0,9035

7825
3774
11651

7519
3589
10875

1,7440 1,4813

0,2757 0,2355

MA's
crossover
signal
Up
Up
Down
Up
Down
Up
Up
Up
Up
Down
Down
Down
Up
Up
Down
Up
Up
Up
Up
Down
Up
Up

Overbought/
Oversold
Singal (Daily)
No Signal
No Signal
Oversold
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
Oversold
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal

MACD Signal
(Daily)

3 Months
trend

Up Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Up Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal

Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Downtrend
Range Trading

Source: Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

210-326 8265

marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos

premoundos@alpha.gr

Maria Koutouzi

mkoutouzi@alpha.gr

Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA

ikouravelos@alpha.gr

Konstantinos Anathreptais

kanathreptakis@alpha.gr