The Hunger Games:

Tribute vs. Tribute Combat

By:
Mary Conroy
Audrey Lambright

ABSTRACT
While The Hunger Games has been drawing interest since its release
date in 2008, its movie adaptation, which aired in 2012, brought a new
perspective into light. The Hunger Games details a utopian society of twelve
districts ruled by one dictator, President Snow, through a system of fear and
hope. As a result of a rebellion 74 years prior, the Hunger Games
themselves are held annually, where 24 children between the ages of 12 and
18 are reaped from their districts and placed in an arena to fight to the
death as tributes, until one victor remains. These games are designed to hold
the citizens of the society, Panem, in a lowly state of anxiety to prevent any
future uprising. While the book is told entirely from the view of the tributes,
the movie brings in the point of view of the Gamemakers, or the technical
workers who operate the games each year under the supervision of President
Snow. This new perspective brought about the motivation for this project:
from behind the scenes, what are the likely results of one-on-one combat
between specific tributes?
This problem would be of the utmost importance to tributes and
Gamemakers alike. If the point of the games are to keep the districts in
check, the Gamemakers would want to eliminate specific tributes, or threats
to governmental stability, as easily as possible and would therefore need to
know how to best do so. This would be very important to the tributes, as only
one will win, and they would therefore need to know which tributes they are
capable of overpowering and which they should avoid.

This problem was approached by applying Lanchesters equations for

battle, and adapting them to fit one-on-one combat. This system of first
order differential equations was graphed and the results were determined as
such. From these plots, it was determined that there were four possible
results: the likely outcome is entirely time-dependent, one tribute is
consistently stronger, the tributes begin on even ground and quickly deviate,
and the tributes remain entirely equal.
While there were significant advantages and disadvantages to this
code, having a program such as this would make a great difference in terms
of how the games would be held. This would give the Gamemakers and
tributes a better understanding of which one-on-one matches are wise, and
which should be avoided. In all, this program could either lead to averted
crises or postpone a death.

BACKGROUND
Twelve districts and a capitol city form the fictional nation, Panem,
created by Suzanne Collins in her young adult novel, The Hunger Games.
Seventy four years before the novel takes place, thirteen districts
unsuccessfully rebelled against the capitol, resulting in the destruction of
district 13, leaving only 12 districts remaining. As a punishment for the
nations disloyalty, every district must annually send a male and female
tribute, both between the ages of 12 and 18 years, to the capitol where they
are pitted against one another in a fight to the death on national television

(The Hunger Games). The government uses these games to entertain the
wealthy capitol people and to keep the citizens of the districts in line in a
fragile system of hope and fear. The games show the people of Panem that
the government is the ultimate ruling power and that the government has
complete control over all aspects of its citizens lives (Sutherland).
Because the games have such a critical role in the social and political
structure of Panem it is important that the games run smoothly and can be
controlled by the Gamemakers. The Gamemakers design and plan everything
from the landscape and ecology of the arena to the weapons and clothing
provided to the tributes. The Gamemakers also have the ability to alter the
environment in the arena via obstacles such as fire, falling trees, animal
attacks, weather, and nightfall/sunrise. The real variable, one of the only
things the Gamemakers cannot control, is the tributes, and all tributes are
not equal in intention or skill. Tributes from wealthier districts, called career
tributes, often train to fight in the games, while tributes from smaller, poorer
districts have no training or fighting skills and simply attempt to survive in
the arena. Before entering the arena each tribute is judged by a panel of
Gamemakers and given a score (ranging from 1 to 12) that rates their
fighting and survival skills. Then, after this point, the tributes survival in the
games depends solely on their own abilities the gifts they receive from
sponsors, primarily sponsors from their district. The Gamemakers ultimate
goal is to make the best television possible and to have a winner that they
feel they can control to the benefit of Panems social and political climate,

which is a perspective brought into heavy focus in the cinematic adaptation

of the book (Reid). Using Lanchesters aimed-fire model and the information
known about each tribute, the most probable winner of a one-on-one fight
between tributes could be determined.
Fredrick Lanchester, an engineer in the Royal Air Force, created a
system of differential equations during World War I that can be used to
demonstrate the struggle between opposing forces in battle. These
equations and their variations and derivations became known as
Lanchesters Laws. There are two laws, the first in Lanchesters Linear Law,
which was applied to ancient combat, and the second is Lanchesters Aimedfire Model, also referred to as Lanchesters Square Law. The aimed-fire model
can be applied to a more modern style of combat that includes long range
weapons (McKay).
To demonstrate the aimed-fire model, two opposing forces engage in
combat, with x(t) troops on one side in y(t) troops on the opposing side. The
model assumes that the troop strength of one force is proportional to the
rate at which the enemy force loses soldiers (Joyner). This yields the
following equations
dx
=S y (t ) , x ( 0 ) =s
dt
dy
=W x ( t ) , y ( 0 )=w
dt
where S and W are both constants greater than zero. S and W correlate to
the fighting effectiveness of each opponent, whereas s and w are the initial

troop strengths, or stamina, of the fighting forces (McKay).

To model the tribute vs. tribute combat that occurs in The Hunger
Games the variables for the aimed-fire model needed to be adjusted. The
tributes fighting effectiveness is the score they received from the
Gamemakers prior to entering the arena. When determining the equivalent
for troop strength, or stamina, in the tribute scenario the lifestyle and
training must be taken into account. The wealth of a tributes home district is
a good indicator of stamina. Tributes from wealthier districts are healthier
and have training while those from poorer districts are weaker and lack
fighting skills. For the tribute vs. tribute combat S and W are the strength
effectiveness, based on score, of each tribute and s and w represent the
stamina, based on district wealth, of each tribute.

PROBLEM STATEMENT AND IMPORTANCE

In order to receive the ideal results, the Gamemakers must have a
method of determining the most likely winner of each one-on-one conflict in
the games. If the Gamemakers had a model that could accurately predict the
outcome of each possible fight they can feasibly decide who to kill off and
when. It also, in the case of time-dependent results, allows the Gamemakers
to see when they would need to intervene if the tribute they were looking to
eliminate fell into a red zone where they were no longer the most likely
victor. This would allow them to avoid the events that unfolded in the two
sequels, Catching Fire and Mockingjay, in which a violent rebellion takes

place, led by their very own victor and the protagonist of the series, Katniss
Everdeen, who could have been easily defeated in the games themselves,
had the opportunity been created. As President Snow, dictator of Panem puts
it, Katniss Everdeen, the girl who was on fire, you have provided a spark
that, left unattended, may grow into an inferno that destroys Panem
(Mockingjay).
From the tributes perspective this modeling tool would also assist
them in making a strategic plan to survive in the arena. Knowing which of
the other tributes is likely to prevail in a fight and which will be easily
conquered would help a competitor learn who he or she should avoid. This
kind of knowledge would also be valuable when it comes to having a partner
or forming temporary alliances while in the arena. Having the right strategy
and knowing the abilities of the competing tributes could make the
difference between life and death. A tributes only chance of survival is to
win the games.

RESULTS
In using the training scores determined by the Gamemakers as their
strength value and in ranking the districts by wealth for their initial value and
plotting the results, the resulting graphs showed that there were four
possible scenarios.
The first possibility, and the most common, was that the results were

dependent on the duration of the fight. This occurs when one tribute begins
with a higher strength value, but comes from a more impoverished district,
causing their stamina to deteriorate more quickly. This kind of fight would be
the most interesting to watch in terms of the entertainment factor of the
games, but is also the most risky if the Gamemakers are looking to eliminate
a particular tribute. One example of this kind of fight is between Marvel of
district 1 and Katniss, the protagonist, of district 12 (The Hunger Games).
Katniss begins with a higher strength value, but comes from a poorer district,
causing her to weaken at a faster rate. Because it is a split second fight,
Katniss gains the upper hand. However, had the fight duration been longer, it
is likely that Marvel would have been able to overpower her.
The second possible fight result is between two tributes, one with a
significant and consistent advantage over the other. This occurs when one
tribute begins with a higher strength rating and also comes from a wealthier
district and is therefore has a longer-lasting stamina. While this would be the
least entertaining fight to watch, it would be the safest way for the
Gamemakers to eliminate a particular tribute, assuming the tribute they are
targeting is the one with a lower strength rating and from a lower-wealth
district. An example of this is the fight between Marvel of district 1 and Rue
of district 11. While Rue clearly saw Marvel coming and had time to defend
herself, Marvel, who began with a higher strength rating and came from a
wealthier district, easily overpowered her (The Hunger Games).
The third result occurs when two tributes start on even ground, but one

tribute almost immediately gains the advantage. This is the case when both
tributes are assigned the same strength score, but one comes from a
wealthier district, thus allowing them to maintain that strength for a longer
period of time, giving them the upper hand. An example of this would be the
fight between Thresh and Clove. Thresh came from district 11, a poorer
district, while Clove came from district 2, a wealthier district. They both,
however, were given strength scores of 10. Their fight was a split second
long and Clove was caught off guard, thus giving Thresh the slight advantage
over their even playing field, allowing him to overtake Clove (The Hunger
Games). However, had the fight been prolonged, it is likely that Clove would
have gained the advantage.
The fourth and final possible result would be two tributes who are
entirely equal, both in strength and district wealth. In this result, no tribute
ever has a clear advantage and the results are the most ambiguous. This
kind of fight would be the clearest indication of the Gamemakers to add
environmental factors to sway the advantage to one side or another. If one of
the tributes in question is a more controversial tribute, this may be a fight to
avoid altogether. This result was fairly uncommon and did not occur within
the storyline, but possible nonetheless. A theoretical fight that would give
this result would be a fight between Clove and Cato, both of district 2 and
with a strength value of 10.

CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION

A code of this nature has its advantages and its limitations. In terms of
advantages, the code is easily adaptable. Player strength values are able to
be easily modified to be raised or lowered to accommodate injuries or
unforeseen strengths or weaknesses. For instance, in an earlier year, a
tribute pretended to be weak and fragile so as to not be seen as a threat,
and therefore received a low strength rating. However, when she entered the
games and showed her true strength, that rating could be increased and the
code could be modified (Mockingjay). Similarly, the value for the wealth of
the district could be increased or decreased based on personality or support
from other districts. Being likable, as Katniss was perceived, would create
more sponsors than previously expected. For instance, after being burned,
she received burn cream from sympathetic Capital residents. In a similar
fashion, after the death of Rue and seeing Katnisss grief, district 11 sent her
a loaf of bread to pay their respects (The Hunger Games). In addition, the
code is advantageous in that it can be easily adapted between years by
simply changing the names and values for strength.
However, like all codes, this code and equation has its weaknesses.
Firstly, the tributes often develop alliances and work in groups, seldom
traveling alone. This decreases the likelihood of a one-on-one fight, unless
external factors are created to separate tributes from their allies. Secondly,
the probable winner is not the guaranteed winner. Upsets are always
possible. If a stronger tribute does not perceive the other as a threat, they
may not perform to the highest extent of their abilities. On the other hand, if

a tribute perceives the other tribute to be a great threat, they may perform
to a greater ability than originally thought possible. Because of this, it must
be taken into consideration that every fight risks the lives of both tributes,
regardless of strength or district wealth. Thirdly, a tributes strength is often
dependent on the weapons available to them. For instance, until Katniss
found a bow and arrow, she was working purely defensively. However, upon
achieving a bow, she began making more offensive moves and playing to her
full potential (The Hunger Games). Finally, this code is limited by the
strength of human character. There is no possible way to actually force to
tributes to engage in combat, as seen when the Gamemakers attempted to
force Katniss and Peeta to battle each other (The Hunger Games). It is not
in the natural human nature to resort to homicide, and while doing so in the
games often creates the best chance of survival, moral integrity can
overpower the desire to survive.
In writing the code, the limitations of ode45 were also uncovered. The
issues arose when one variable would pass zero and become negative while
the other value would still be positive. This would create a value where one
force is becoming dramatically weak, while the other is becoming intensely
strong. However, this issue and the inaccurate results it delivered can be
avoided by defining an event in the code to stop the differentiation of the
system of equations when one of the variables reaches zero.
Moving forward, adaptations could be made to increase the usability of
the code. It could first be adapted by expanding the number of differential

equations in the system to include more than two tributes, or better yet,
allow the user to choose how many tributes are involved in the fight. This
would be particularly helpful at the start of the games, when all of the
tributes are in the exact same place. The code could also be adapted by
having the ability to change variables throughout the course of the first. If
someone is injured halfway through the fight or environmental factors are
changed to favor a certain opponent, the strength value could be changed to
strength=strength+2 or strength=strength-2, and the tribute could continue
fighting at their new strength level. This would make the code more
representative of an actual fight, evolving it into more of a battle-simulator.
In all, the results obtained were fairly representative of the battle
results that occurred in the book and provided a more detailed
understanding of the nature of man-to-man combat.

REFERENCES
Collins, Suzanne. The Hunger Games. Scholastic Press. New York. 2008.
Collins, Suzanne. Mockingjay. Scholastic Press. New York. 2010.
Joyner. An Introduction to Systems of Des: Lanchesters Equations for
Battle.
McKay, Niall. Lanchester Combat Models. Department of Mathematics,
University of York. May 2005.
Reid, Rebecca. The Hunger Games by Suzanne Collins. June 2010.
<http://reviews.rebeccareid.com/the-hunger-games-by-suzannecollins/>.
Sutherland, Donald. Letters from the Rose Garden: A Letter to Director Gary
Ross. <http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-sutherland-hungergames-email-2014-11>.