Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
FNCE 3363
October 30, 2014
Yangxing (Dennis) Li
Executive Summary
Recommendation: Buy
TeamHealth is a well-managed healthcare staffing company that will continue to grow
with benefits from favorable industry trends and the managements determination to use
available resources to expand the companys presence in the marketplace. The new healthcare
legislation, known as Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, will help reduce the uninsured
population. With more people getting health insurance, patient visits to hospitals will likely
increase even more and it will further boost the demand for healthcare professionals.
TeamHealth has a great customer satisfaction record, as measured by its high client retention
rates compared to industry competitors. From the fundamentals standpoint, TeamHealth also
comes out on top. The consistent growth in sales and positive earnings surprise in the last two
years are the key drivers for the companys advance in its stock price. But any slowdown in the
companys growth momentum in the future may stall further price appreciation.
Number of Shares Suggested: 1,186 (1.3% of the portfolio)
Suggested Buy Price: $55
Summary Information
Company Name: TeamHealth Inc.
Ticker Symbol: TMH
Exchange: NYSE
Current Price: $61.95
52-Week Range: $41.37 - $62.39
Price History:
Business Description
Founded in 1979, TeamHealth is one of the largest staffing companies in the healthcare
industry that provides outsourced medical professional staffing and administrative services to
hospitals and other healthcare providers in the United States. The company is currently serving
about 900 hospitals, clinics in 46 states and its team comprises of approximately 10,200
healthcare professionals including physicians, physician assistants, nurses and nurse
practitioners.1 TeamHealth recruits and contracts with those aforementioned medical
professional groups, who then provides healthcare services in hospitals, clinics or other
healthcare facilities. TeamHealth states that the companys vision is to develop the best teams
of healthcare professionals driven to advance patient care through leadership, innovation and
teamwork, and is proud of its client satisfaction through high level of contract retention rates.2
Main Service Lines1
The biggest segment that TeamHealth provides outsourced staffing and administrative
services to is Emergency Departments (EDs). EDs are the major source of hospital inpatient
admissions and a lot of those admissions for key medical services start in EDs. Therefore wellmanaged EDs are essential to hospitals patient satisfaction level and the overall success of the
hospitals. Also with increasing challenges that hospitals face in doing the billing and collections
process by themselves and maintaining high level of physician recruiting and retention, more and
more hospitals are leaning toward the idea of outsourcing their staffing and administrative
services to companies like TeamHealth.
1
2
In the ED market, there are approximately 5,000 community hospitals and about 3,300 of
those hospitals are in TeamHealths target market. Of the 3,300 targeted hospitals, about 2,600 of
their EDs are outsourced. TeamHealth has 16% of the market share in the outsourced ED market,
while local groups have 46%, regional groups have 20% and other national groups have 18%,
according to managements estimates. Net revenues from TeamHealths ED segment were 72%,
71% and 69% of its total consolidated net revenues in year 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively.
TeamHealth also provides outsourced medical professionals staffing and administrative
services for inpatient services, including hospital medicine, medical specialists and house
coverage services. Net revenues from TeamHealths inpatient service line were 9%, 10% and
12% of its total consolidated net revenues in year 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively.
Anesthesiology is the other main segment that TeamHealth provides outsourced services
to. In the anesthesia market, TeamHealth offers outsourced anesthesiology and pain management
personnel to hospitals and ambulatory surgical centers. The company also provides
administrative services to help improve the performance of the anesthesiology department. Net
revenues from TeamHealths anesthesiology segment were 7%, 8% and 10% of its total
consolidated net revenues in year 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively.
Geographic Presence3
TeamHealth is a national company that provides outsourced staffing and administrative
services to hospitals and other healthcare facilities in 46 states. The company has 19 regional
offices in key geographic areas and its presence is spread out across the United States.
From: TeamHealth
High Client Retention2
TeamHealth has long-term relationships with its clients under exclusive contracts in its
biggest ED service segment. The company is an industry leader in retaining its existing
customers with client renewal rate of 96% and physician retention rate of 93%.
those benefits coming from the new healthcare legislation, companies in this industry is expected
to get a boost in their service demand and profitability.
Social change is another external factor that can affect the healthcare services industry,
and specifically the national unemployment rate and the availability of qualified medical
professionals. From the correlation analysis, the national unemployment rate has a positive
correlation with industry sales. The positive relationship indicates that as the unemployment rate
increases, so does industry sales. But since the significance level for this particular relationship is
0.63, it is not considered as a significant result. According to the Wall Street Journal economic
survey, the consensus among economists is that the national unemployment rate will likely
decrease steadily in the next year and beyond.5 With lower unemployment rate, demand for
healthcare service providers would likely increase. Multiple studies have pointed out that there is
continuing shortage of qualified medical professionals in the market, which could negatively
affect those health care service providers because of increasing competition to gain access to
those qualified medical groups.
Demographic changes also play an important role in affecting performance for healthcare
service providers like TeamHealth. According to a report conducted in 2010 by the U.S. Census
Bureau, the older population in the states is projected to increase rapidly in the next four decades.
The report indicates that in 2050, the number of Americans aged 65 and older is estimated to be
88.5 million. This projection is more than doubled the agencys previous projection of 40.2
million in 2010. Baby boomers, as the report suggests, are the main reason for the increase in
older population.6 (Vincent and Velkoff 2010)
5
6
As more and more baby boomers retire, the aging population in the country will very
likely increase utilization of healthcare services. As mentioned before, lower uninsured
population thanks to the Affordable Care Act will continue to improve the payor mix and that
will likely translate into better margins for companies in this industry.
In terms of foreign influence in the health care services industry, the impact will be
limited because most of the companies in the industry operate in local or regional environments
and have yet to expand internationally.
The market for health care staffing and management services is highly fragmented,
especially in the ED segment. There are approximately 5,000 community hospitals that are in the
ED market, of which about 2,600 of EDs are outsourced to national, regional or local groups. Of
those 2,600 EDs, TeamHealth estimates that 46% of those EDs are outsourced to local groups,
20% to regional groups and 34% to other national groups.7 The barrier to entry is thus low. All of
the service providers in the ED market provide similar healthcare services in one way or another,
so there is price competition for those companies which will affect their ability to gain new
contracts and retain existing contracts. Because of the potential benefits created by the healthcare
reform, more national providers seek acquisitions and consolidations to grasp those opportunities
for further growth. Thus the industry is heading toward the mature stage in its industry life cycle.
Main Competitors
Envision Healthcare (NYSE: EVHC) and AMN Healthcare Services (NYSE:AHS) are
two of TeamHealths largest competitors in the healthcare staffing industry in terms of similarity
of services offered and market capitalization.
Analysis
Improved Payor Mix
The benefit of improved payor mix from the PPACA is starting to take place in
TeamHealths operation. In the companys most recent Q2 2014 conference call, the
management team mentioned that self-pay patient volume as percentage of total visits declined
380 basis points to 17.4% compared to the first quarter of 2014. Both Medicare and Medicaid
patient volumes have seen moderate increase this year compared to last year.
Focus on Acquisitions
TeamHealth stated in its annual report to shareholder that the priority of the companys
use of cash is to grow the business by acquisitions. In the past two years TeamHealth acquired 15
ED and 5 anesthesia service lines in various markets. In a highly fragmented environment just
like the healthcare staffing industry, acquisitions for growth can help the company to gain market
share and thus put the company in a more competitive position against other competitors.
Financial Analysis8
Earnings
For the past 4 quarters, TeamHealth has been consistently beating earnings estimates by
an average of 9.2%. The recent positive earnings surprises mainly come from the companys
continuous growth in its revenues. With a favorable industry environment and TeamHealth
managements pursuit of gaining more share in the ED and anesthesia markets, its earnings are
expected to continue to grow in a moderate pace heading into next year.
Earnings Surprise
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
Q3 '13
Q4 '13
After Event
Q1 '14
Q2 '14
Estimates
From: Factset
Profitability
TeamHealths gross margin has been consistent for the past 3 years around 16%, and its
competitors gross margins have also been stable during these years. The industrys gross margin
is 4 percentage points higher mainly due to much higher gross margin from AMN Healthcare.
Operating margins for TeamHealth as well as the industry are also stable. For TeamHealth, its
operating margin hovers around 7% in the past 3 years and it is slightly better than the industry
average. Net margin for TeamHealth is higher and much more consistent in the past 3 years
compared to its industry competitors. The industrys net margin for 2013 is almost 3 times lower
than TeamHealths mainly due to much lower margin from Envision Healthcare. TeamHealths
ROA is also higher and more consistent than its industry peers in the previous 3 years, which
shows that TeamHealth has been more profitable than its industry competitors. In short,
TeamHealth delivers better performance and is more consistent in terms of profitability when
comparing to its competitors.
In the healthcare staffing industry, cost of services rendered and other S, G&A expenses
make up considerable amount relative to companies revenues mainly due to rising costs of
hiring qualified medical professionals. With continuing shortage of those groups going forward,
healthcare staffing companies are expected to face some pressure on their operating margins. At
the same time, the new healthcare legislation will continue to benefit those staffing companies in
terms of giving their margins a boost. The PPACA will result in lower uninsured population and
a better payor mix for staffing companies. Hospitals will receive more patient visits, which in
turn will increase the demand for medical staffing services. From TeamHealths Q2 2014
conference call, the management mentioned that the benefits of the PPACA are starting to take
place as the rollout phase is heading toward completion. Projected adjusted EBITDA margin for
full year 2014 could range between 11-11.5%, and that would be 4 percentage points higher than
previous year.
Turnover Ratio
TeamHealths key turnover ratios are in line with the industry average in the past 3 years.
Receivables turnover for TeamHealth and the industry ranges from 5 to 6, and the ratio has not
changed much for 3 years. According to the Q2 2014 conference call, management projected that
its average collection period for fiscal year 2014 will be 58 days. In other words, TeamHealths
receivables turnover ratio is projected to improve from 5.88 in 2013 to 6.30 in 2014. Higher
receivables turnover ratio means that the company is projected to collect credit sales a little
faster.
Liquidity
TeamHealths interest coverage ratios for the past 3 years are much higher than its
industry competitors. Especially in 2013, it is almost 3 times higher than the industry average.
TeamHealths CFO/total debt is also higher compared to the industry, mainly because Envision
Healthcares ratios are much lower that drags down the industry average number. Those ratios
show that TeamHealth can pay off its debt faster than its competitors assuming the earnings and
cash flows are constant. In other words, TeamHealth is in a better liquidity position when it
meets its debt obligations.
Leverage
Companies in the healthcare staffing industry tend to leverage their businesses with longterm debt. All the key leverage ratios show that companies have been reducing their debt levels
for the past 3 years. This trend is consistent across the industry. TeamHealths LT debt/total
assets declined from 41.48% in 2011 to 35.52% in 2013, while the same ratio for the industry
declined from 45.70% to 34.59%. The decrease in TeamHealths leverage ratios is also
consistent with one of managements objectives as stated in the companys most recent annual
report.
Valuation
Multiples Analysis
To value TeamHealth, a combination of multiples are used. The two main multiples in
this valuation analysis are P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios.9 The companys sales is forecasted to
grow 14% in 2014 and 14.5% in 2015.10 The forecasted growth in sales is reasonable because of
favorable industry trends that the new healthcare legislation brings forth and TeamHealth is
expected to take further advantage of those favorable trends to grow the company by acquisitions
in the highly fragmented healthcare staffing market.
Looking at TeamHealths P/E multiples, the company is currently trading at a discount
over the industry average multiples. The industry P/E multiple is very high mainly due to
10
substantially high multiples from Envision Healthcare. With favorable growth prospect in sales
and earnings, TeamHealth can maintain its current P/E multiple of 39.31x in 2015. And with
forecasted earnings of $1.96 per share at the end of 2015, the implied value of TeamHealth today
is $70.85 per share. The implied equity value using the P/E multiples is at a premium to where
the company is trading currently.11
TeamHealths EV/EBITDA of 15.27x is also at a discount compared to the industry
average multiples of 17x. It is reasonable to suggest that there is potentially more upside ahead in
the companys EV/EBITDA multiples. Using the industry average multiples of 17x as
TeamHealths 2015 EV/EBITDA, the implied equity value of the company today is $64.50 per
share and it is at a small premium to the companys current price per share.
Discounted Cash Flow
Another method to value TeamHealth is by using the discounted cash flow models. Since
TeamHealth does not pay out dividends to shareholders and the management does not indicate
that they will do it anytime soon, it is thus not appropriate to use the Gordon Growth Model.
The H-Model presents a better fit for determining TeamHealths equity value because the
growth rates of its free cash flow in the past 5 years fluctuate a lot. Cost of equity is calculated to
be 8.75% using the CAPM approach. WACC (weighted average cost of capital) is calculated to
be 7.54%. The free cash flows that are used in this model are TeamHealths forecasted free cash
flows to the firm. The H Model gives the companys equity value of $66.59 per share, which is
at a premium to where the company is trading currently.
11
Price Target
To determine the final target price for TeamHealth, a combination of P/E and
EV/EBITDA multiples together with the discounted cash flow model are used. By utilizing all
those methods, it becomes more accurate to determine the intrinsic value of the company. The
weights given to each of those measures to get the final price are as follows: 40% to P/E
multiples, 20% to EV/EBITDA and 40% to the H-Model outcome. The final target price for
TeamHealth comes out to be $67.88 per share.
Risk to Price Target
Valuation using the H-Model is sensitive to TeamHealths long-term free cash flow
growth rate and the required rate of return assumptions. The equity value of TeamHealth can be
greatly affected if those underlying assumptions change. The forecasted P/E multiple used in the
valuation model is based upon the analysis of the industry outlook12, and the valuation of
TeamHealth can be greatly affected if those underlying economic conditions change.
12
See Industry Analysis & Competitive Positioning section for analysis of industry outlook
References
Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2014. "U.S. GDP." Bureau of Economic Analysis.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=
http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bea.gov%2Fnational%2Fxls%2Fgdpchg.xls&ei=fWEUUeCiDcSvyQGXyYCYC
Q&usg=AFQjCNFe70KjeZ-G8b1adaOvkdSHj0KkHw&bvm=bv.42080656,d.aWc.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2014. "U.S. Unemployment." Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat01.htm.
Federal Reserve. 2014. "Selected Interest Rates." Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm.
McMahon, Tim. 2014. Historical Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) Data. October 22.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Consumer_Price_Index/HistoricalCPI.aspx?reloaded=true.
. 2014. Historical Crude Oil Prices (Table). March 6.
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Table.asp.
TeamHealth Inc. 2013. 2013 Annual Report. 10-K, TeamHealth Inc.
. 2014. "Investor Presentation - October 2014." TeamHealth. October. Accessed October 2014.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=232262&p=irol-presentations.
United States Census Bureau. 2014. "New Residential Construction." United States Census Bureau.
http://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/historical_data/.
Vincent, Grayson K., and Victoria A. Velkoff. 2010. "The Next Four Decades The Older Population in the
United States: 2010 to 2050." Administration for Community Living. May. Accessed October
2014. http://www.aoa.acl.gov/Aging_Statistics/future_growth/DOCS/p25-1138.pdf.
Wall Street Journal. 2014. Economic Forecasting Survey. October. Accessed October 2014.
http://projects.wsj.com/econforecast/#ind=gdp&r=20.
Appendix A
Sum
Rank
6
10
11
12
14
16
19
25
25
27
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
rank
2
5
1
6
3
4
7
8
9
10
Appendix B
Team Health Holdings, Inc.
TM H
Common stock
Income Statement
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar
Year/Year growth
Jun '14
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
LTM
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
--
Sales
2,544.64
2,383.60
2,069.02
1,745.33
1,519.26
1,423.44
1,331.32
1,232.07
2,111.67
1,996.62
1,727.70
1,444.20
1,243.51
1,153.08
1,079.33
986.75
432.97
386.97
341.32
301.13
275.75
270.36
251.98
245.31
Income Statement
Gross Income
SG&A Expense
EBIT (Operating Income)
Nonoperating Income - Net
Interest Expense
Unusual Expense - Net
Pretax Income
Income Taxes
222.74
201.85
220.80
169.15
135.81
165.90
120.54
118.53
210.22
185.12
120.52
131.98
139.94
104.46
131.44
126.78
5.30
4.54
4.76
-0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
14.21
14.91
16.34
12.78
20.55
36.68
45.85
55.23
31.18
30.87
4.56
10.17
68.27
2.12
9.88
0.00
171.65
143.88
104.38
108.79
51.12
65.66
75.71
71.55
66.50
56.31
40.57
43.26
37.78
24.95
31.04
27.70
105.15
87.57
63.81
65.52
13.34
40.71
44.67
43.85
0.20
0.16
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
104.95
87.41
63.77
65.52
13.34
40.71
44.67
43.85
104.95
87.41
63.77
65.52
13.34
40.71
44.67
43.85
EPS (recurring)
1.76
1.54
0.98
1.09
0.95
0.85
1.05
0.89
EPS (diluted)
1.47
1.24
0.93
0.98
0.21
0.82
0.91
0.88
--
77.49
71.89
73.36
85.38
78.22
--
--
269.90
239.74
164.78
161.94
166.89
123.27
148.72
141.66
Earnings Persistence
EBITDA
Common stock
Income Statement
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
Common Size - % of Sales
Year/Year growth
Common Size
Jun '14
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
82.99
83.77
83.50
82.75
81.85
81.01
81.07
80.09
17.01
16.23
16.50
17.25
18.15
18.99
18.93
19.91
Income Statement
Sales
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) incl. D&A
Gross Income
SG&A Expense
8.75
8.47
10.67
9.69
8.94
11.65
9.05
9.62
8.26
7.77
5.83
7.56
9.21
7.34
9.87
10.29
0.21
0.19
0.23
-0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Interest Expense
0.56
0.63
0.79
0.73
1.35
2.58
3.44
4.48
1.23
1.30
0.22
0.58
4.49
0.15
0.74
0.00
Pretax Income
6.75
6.04
5.04
6.23
3.36
4.61
5.69
5.81
Income Taxes
2.61
2.36
1.96
2.48
2.49
1.75
2.33
2.25
4.13
3.67
3.08
3.75
0.88
2.86
3.36
3.56
M inority Interest
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Net Income
4.12
3.67
3.08
3.75
0.88
2.86
3.36
3.56
4.12
3.67
3.08
3.75
0.88
2.86
3.36
3.56
10.61
10.06
7.96
9.28
10.98
8.66
11.17
11.50
EBITDA
Common stock
Balance Sheet
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar
Year/Year growth
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
--
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments
32.33
41.24
9.86
30.34
170.33
46.40
--
415.39
395.15
323.44
258.91
255.32
268.38
--
35.03
38.05
24.02
21.21
17.04
15.47
--
482.75
474.44
357.32
310.46
442.69
330.25
--
53.43
49.17
34.67
35.16
28.85
27.48
--
112.58
72.32
94.30
87.78
86.98
87.41
--
39.53
47.89
31.58
28.64
24.71
20.59
--
Short-Term Receivables
601.49
475.54
334.13
271.52
273.48
182.20
--
44.55
31.60
36.19
35.47
44.88
47.92
--
Other Assets
27.08
48.45
40.08
38.71
39.36
30.94
--
Total Assets
1,361.41
1,199.40
928.27
807.74
940.95
726.78
--
17.97
16.25
35.00
4.25
161.75
4.25
--
Accounts Payable
27.70
25.05
22.36
18.56
17.47
13.45
--
42.08
40.57
38.07
38.44
37.74
33.23
--
330.75
312.24
263.32
231.36
208.34
193.57
--
418.49
394.11
358.75
292.61
425.30
244.50
--
483.59
501.56
385.00
399.50
449.27
611.03
--
--
--
--
134.66
--
--
--
Long-Term Debt
Provision for Risks & Charges
Other Liabilities
190.84
186.26
167.12
32.33
158.70
154.93
--
Total Liabilities
1,092.93
1,081.93
910.87
859.09
1,033.28
1,010.46
--
Common Equity
Total Shareholders' Equity
Accumulated M inority Interest
Total Equity
Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
Book Value per Share
Tangible Book Value per Share
267.19
116.93
17.40
-51.35
-92.33
-283.67
--
267.19
116.93
17.40
-51.35
-92.33
-283.67
--
1.29
0.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
268.48
117.47
17.40
-51.35
-92.33
-283.67
--
1,361.41
1,199.40
928.27
807.74
940.95
726.78
--
3.82
1.73
0.27
-0.80
-1.48
--
--
-4.77
-5.29
-4.83
-5.01
-5.86
--
--
Common stock
Balance Sheet
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
Common Size - % of Total Assets
Year/Year growth
Common Size
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments
Short-Term Receivables
2.37
3.44
1.06
3.76
18.10
6.38
--
30.51
32.95
34.84
32.05
27.13
36.93
--
2.57
3.17
2.59
2.63
1.81
2.13
--
35.46
39.56
38.49
38.44
47.05
45.44
--
3.92
4.10
3.74
4.35
3.07
3.78
--
8.27
6.03
10.16
10.87
9.24
12.03
--
2.90
3.99
3.40
3.55
2.63
2.83
--
44.18
39.65
35.99
33.62
29.06
25.07
--
3.27
2.63
3.90
4.39
4.77
6.59
--
Other Assets
1.99
4.04
4.32
4.79
4.18
4.26
--
Total Assets
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
--
Intangible Assets
3.09
3.38
4.10
4.76
4.01
4.57
--
24.29
26.03
28.37
28.64
22.14
26.63
--
30.74
32.86
38.65
36.23
45.20
33.64
--
35.52
41.82
41.48
49.46
47.75
84.07
--
Long-Term Debt
Provision for Risks & Charges
--
--
--
16.67
--
--
--
Other Liabilities
14.02
15.53
18.00
4.00
16.87
21.32
--
Total Liabilities
80.28
90.21
98.13
106.36
109.81
139.03
--
Common Equity
19.63
9.75
1.87
-6.36
-9.81
-39.03
--
19.63
9.75
1.87
-6.36
-9.81
-39.03
--
0.10
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
19.72
9.79
1.87
-6.36
-9.81
-39.03
--
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
--
Common stock
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
LTM
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
--
105.15
87.57
63.81
65.52
13.34
40.71
44.67
43.27
59.68
54.62
44.26
29.96
26.95
18.81
17.28
14.87
--
-10.73
2.50
7.89
11.69
3.00
19.52
22.79
Other Funds
1,982.41
1,939.43
1,676.01
1,402.57
1,211.95
1,066.78
970.84
877.39
2,130.14
2,070.89
1,786.58
1,505.94
1,263.93
1,129.30
1,052.30
958.32
-1,963.45
-1,916.48
-1,708.41
-1,407.14
-1,150.00
-1,046.45
-990.33
-888.27
Receivables
-2,005.03
-1,943.67
-1,707.69
-1,447.87
-1,155.78
-1,052.76
-975.68
-889.66
Accounts Payable
5.75
2.03
0.18
3.63
0.79
3.77
1.25
-1.56
1.03
1.93
-4.36
0.61
--
6.69
-4.71
1.80
32.46
18.38
20.34
24.79
7.96
16.63
6.39
16.52
2.35
4.86
-16.88
11.71
-2.96
-20.79
-17.59
-15.37
166.69
154.41
78.17
98.80
113.93
82.84
61.97
70.05
Cash Flow
Operating Activities
Net Income / Starting Line
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization
Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit
Other Accruals
Other Assets/Liabilities
Net Operating Cash Flow
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures
Net Assets from Acquisitions
Sale of Fixed Assets & Businesses
Purchase/Sale of Investments
Other Funds
Net Investing Cash Flow
-26.02
-21.38
-22.01
-11.98
-11.90
-11.61
-12.14
-12.68
-153.07
-159.14
-167.64
-125.83
-135.89
-201.38
-188.09
-184.78
2.78
0.13
0.17
--
78.37
113.39
170.45
166.08
-10.23
-13.70
19.52
-3.70
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-2.00
0.09
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.13
-186.54
-194.09
-171.95
-141.41
-69.41
-99.58
-29.77
-31.26
18.93
32.97
28.63
14.13
22.76
144.92
-1.84
-0.96
-16.25
-16.25
94.98
7.95
-207.28
-4.25
-14.25
-11.05
Financing Activities
Change in Capital Stock
Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net
Other Funds
16.71
14.05
1.54
0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.50
19.39
30.77
125.16
22.13
-184.51
140.67
-16.09
-12.51
M iscellaneous Funds
-0.00
-0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.00
-0.00
-0.00
0.00
-0.47
-8.91
31.39
-20.48
-139.99
123.93
16.11
26.29
140.68
133.03
56.17
86.82
102.03
71.23
49.83
57.37
1.96
1.88
0.82
1.30
1.58
1.43
1.01
1.16
--
4.14
2.86
5.91
10.16
10.21
--
--
Common stock
Ratios - Annual
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
5 Yr AVG
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
--
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
--
Gross M argin
17.43
16.23
16.50
17.25
18.15
18.99
18.93
19.91
SG&A to Sales
9.89
8.47
10.67
9.69
8.94
11.65
9.05
9.62
Operating M argin
7.54
7.77
5.83
7.56
9.21
7.34
9.87
10.29
Pretax M argin
5.06
6.04
5.04
6.23
3.36
4.61
5.69
5.81
Net M argin
2.85
3.67
3.08
3.75
0.88
2.86
3.36
3.56
Return on Assets
5.36
6.83
5.99
7.55
1.53
4.88
--
--
Return on Equity
45.51
94.95
--
--
--
--
--
45.51
94.95
--
--
--
--
--
Profitability (%)
10.72
12.46
11.90
16.59
3.06
9.57
--
--
11.68
12.77
12.49
17.46
3.78
11.90
--
--
24.14
22.55
15.31
26.33
32.32
24.21
--
--
Valuation (x)
Price/Sales
Price/Earnings
0.86
1.35
0.95
0.84
0.66
0.49
--
--
36.26
36.73
30.94
22.52
74.00
17.10
--
--
11.94
16.67
83.19
--
--
--
--
8.42
--
--
Price/Book Value
Price/Cash Flow
15.61
20.83
25.13
14.87
8.82
19.14
24.18
34.97
16.92
9.85
9.79
--
--
Enterprise Value/EBIT
15.28
19.77
20.13
14.08
9.83
12.59
--
--
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
12.08
15.27
14.73
11.47
8.24
10.67
--
--
Enterprise Value/Sales
1.12
1.54
1.17
1.06
0.91
0.92
--
--
0.27
0.14
0.21
0.23
0.29
0.46
--
--
Per Share
Sales per Share
28.48
33.75
30.30
26.21
23.50
28.61
27.00
24.95
2.13
2.62
1.77
1.98
2.16
2.10
2.67
2.57
EPS (recurring)
1.08
1.54
0.98
1.09
0.95
0.85
1.05
0.89
EPS (diluted)
0.84
1.24
0.93
0.98
0.21
0.82
0.91
0.88
0.71
3.82
1.73
0.27
-0.80
-1.48
--
--
-5.15
-4.77
-5.29
-4.83
-5.01
-5.86
--
--
1.65
2.19
1.14
1.48
1.76
1.67
1.26
1.42
1.40
1.88
0.82
1.30
1.58
1.43
1.01
1.16
63.97
70.62
68.28
66.58
64.64
49.75
49.31
49.39
66.05
70.02
67.76
65.59
64.49
62.40
--
--
52.18
64.80
80.99
86.85
15.14
13.14
--
--
Receivables
5.80
5.88
5.76
5.99
5.91
5.44
--
--
Current Assets
4.58
4.98
4.98
5.23
4.03
3.68
--
--
Fixed Assets
48.76
46.46
49.36
49.99
47.47
50.54
--
--
Total Assets
1.85
1.86
1.94
2.01
1.74
1.71
--
--
DuPont Analysis
Asset Turnover (x)
x Pretax M argin (%)
= Pretax Return on Assets (%)
x Tax Rate Complement (1-Tax Rate)
= Return on Assets (%)
1.85
1.86
1.94
2.01
1.74
1.71
--
--
5.06
6.04
5.04
6.23
3.36
4.61
5.69
5.81
9.46
11.24
9.81
12.53
5.85
7.87
--
--
54.06
60.86
61.13
60.23
26.09
62.00
59.00
61.28
5.36
6.83
5.99
7.55
1.53
4.88
--
---
100.00
6.67
15.84
--
--
--
--
45.51
94.95
--
--
--
--
--
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
45.51
94.95
--
--
--
--
--
13.90
14.46
11.33
15.21
16.01
12.53
--
--
2.06
1.10
1.36
1.38
2.54
3.90
6.31
--
Revenue/Employee
0.25
0.26
0.24
0.26
0.27
0.24
0.21
--
Net Income/Employee
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.01
--
Assets/Employee
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.16
0.12
--
5.80
5.88
5.76
5.99
5.91
5.44
--
--
--
72.90
70.60
69.03
74.58
--
--
1.86
1.94
2.01
1.74
1.71
--
--
37.09
25.76
--
85.10
81.87
15.53
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
62.06
63.38
60.89
61.77
67.14
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
5.01
5.17
5.29
4.89
--
--
1.15
1.20
1.00
1.06
1.04
1.35
--
--
1.20
1.00
1.06
1.04
1.35
--
0.08
0.10
0.03
0.10
0.40
0.19
--
1.85
63.05
= Operating Cycle
- Days of Payables Outstanding
Liquidity
Current Ratio
1.09
Quick Ratio
Cash Ratio
0.14
13.28
6.70
8.69
2.76
9.77
38.48
14.05
--
28.54
36.90
19.83
27.54
38.94
19.48
25.35
--
Net Debt/EBITDA
2.64
1.96
2.89
2.53
2.24
3.58
3.83
--
Net Debt/(EBITDA-Capex)
2.92
2.15
3.34
2.73
2.41
3.95
4.17
--
Total Debt/EBITDA
3.04
2.09
3.14
2.59
2.42
4.96
4.14
--
7.95
12.42
7.38
10.33
6.81
2.85
2.87
2.30
10.06
16.08
10.09
12.67
8.12
3.36
3.24
2.56
7.95
12.42
7.38
10.33
6.81
2.85
2.87
2.30
CFO/Interest Expense
6.13
10.36
4.78
7.73
5.54
2.26
1.35
1.27
LT Debt/EBITDA
2.70
2.02
3.04
2.38
2.39
3.64
4.11
--
Net Debt/FFO
0.29
0.23
0.27
0.27
0.30
0.39
0.54
--
LT Debt/FFO
0.30
0.23
0.28
0.26
0.32
0.40
0.58
--
FCF/Total Debt
0.19
0.27
0.11
0.21
0.25
0.12
0.08
--
CFO/Total Debt
0.22
0.31
0.15
0.24
0.28
0.14
0.10
--
Coverage (x)
EBITDA/Interest Expense
Leverage (%)
LT Debt/Total Equity
180.99
428.94
2,212.64
--
--
--
--
LT Debt/Total Capital
86.0
62.91
79.02
88.02
113.37
86.62
184.27
--
LT Debt/Total Assets
43.20
35.52
41.82
41.48
49.46
47.75
84.07
--
48.04
36.84
43.17
45.25
49.99
64.94
84.66
--
175.62
407.57
2,357.16
--
--
--
--
Total Debt/Equity
187.72
442.84
2,413.79
--
--
--
--
84.16
61.04
75.08
93.77
105.96
84.96
171.55
--
95.0
65.24
81.58
96.02
114.57
117.80
185.55
--
Appendix C
AMN Healthcare Services, Inc.
AHS
Common stock
Income Statement
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar, except per share items
Jun '14
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
Dec '06
Dec '05
LTM
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
Sales
997.55
1,011.82
953.95
887.47
689.22
759.79
1,217.20
1,164.02
1,081.70
705.84
711.42
728.08
697.71
654.47
512.78
569.18
914.65
872.53
802.74
541.79
696.57
714.54
683.55
638.06
497.69
555.37
900.21
860.86
792.42
535.61
14.85
13.55
14.15
16.42
15.08
13.81
14.44
11.67
10.33
6.18
Gross Income
286.13
283.74
256.25
233.00
176.44
190.61
302.55
291.49
278.96
164.06
SG&A Expense
219.97
220.89
202.90
195.35
158.73
157.24
230.66
218.25
205.50
117.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.14
66.16
62.85
53.34
37.65
17.71
33.37
71.89
73.24
73.46
46.73
Interest Expense
6.60
9.23
16.20
23.73
19.77
11.96
10.69
12.46
16.70
8.37
6.60
9.23
16.20
23.73
19.77
11.96
10.76
12.70
16.70
8.37
Interest Capitalized
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
0.00
0.00
0.07
0.25
--
--
3.94
-2.22
9.82
0.00
60.23
186.98
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.20
--
0.39
--
--
--
11.27
--
--
--
--
--
--
0.00
0.00
41.93
--
--
--
--
--
--
-3.05
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
8.90
175.71
--
--
--
--
3.94
0.43
9.82
0.00
9.40
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.20
Pretax Income
55.67
55.84
27.32
13.92
-62.29
-165.56
61.20
60.78
56.77
37.17
Income Taxes
23.88
22.90
11.01
8.90
-10.30
-43.39
26.85
24.25
21.68
14.93
--
19
10
30
23
12
-4
--
-1
-10
-51
-3
18
Income Statement
0.00
0.00
-1.31
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
31.79
32.93
15.00
5.02
-51.99
-122.18
34.36
36.53
35.09
22.23
31.79
32.93
15.00
5.02
-51.99
-122.18
34.36
36.53
35.09
22.23
31.79
32.93
15.00
5.02
-51.99
-122.18
34.36
36.53
35.09
22.23
EPS (recurring)
0.72
0.66
0.47
0.11
-0.28
0.27
1.02
1.05
1.02
0.72
EPS (diluted)
0.67
0.69
0.34
-0.57
-1.49
-3.75
1.02
1.05
1.02
0.69
47.84
47.79
46.71
45.95
34.84
32.62
33.81
34.88
34.50
32.12
46.50
46.01
45.69
40.45
39.19
32.63
32.58
33.83
34.58
31.20
--
87.86
83.14
87.57
72.23
63.40
89.46
88.00
85.16
69.03
Earnings Persistence
EBITDA
81.01
76.39
67.49
54.06
32.80
47.18
86.33
84.92
83.79
52.91
EBIT
66.16
62.85
53.34
37.65
17.71
33.37
71.89
73.24
73.46
46.73
14.85
13.55
14.15
16.42
15.08
13.81
14.44
11.67
10.33
6.18
11.84
Supplemental
Rental Expense
Stock Option Expense
Tax Rate
--
14.21
15.19
15.55
--
--
16.01
16.49
14.59
3.98
3.74
3.82
4.39
5.07
5.33
5.71
5.04
4.24
0.09
42.89
41.02
40.30
63.97
--
--
43.86
39.90
38.18
40.17
Common stock
Income Statement
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
Common Size - % of Sales
Year/Year growth
Common Size
Jun '14
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
Dec '06
Dec '05
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
71.32
71.96
73.14
73.75
74.40
74.91
75.14
74.96
74.21
76.76
Gross Income
28.68
28.04
26.86
26.25
25.60
25.09
24.86
25.04
25.79
23.24
SG&A Expense
16.60
Income Statement
Sales
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) incl. D&A
22.05
21.83
21.27
22.01
23.03
20.70
18.95
18.75
19.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
6.63
6.21
5.59
4.24
2.57
4.39
5.91
6.29
6.79
6.62
Interest Expense
0.66
0.91
1.70
2.67
2.87
1.57
0.88
1.07
1.54
1.19
0.39
-0.22
1.03
0.00
8.74
24.61
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.17
Pretax Income
5.58
5.52
2.86
1.57
-9.04
-21.79
5.03
5.22
5.25
5.27
Income Taxes
2.39
2.26
1.15
1.00
-1.49
-5.71
2.21
2.08
2.00
2.12
0.00
0.00
-0.14
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.19
3.25
1.57
0.57
-7.54
-16.08
2.82
3.14
3.24
3.15
Net Income
3.19
3.25
1.57
0.57
-7.54
-16.08
2.82
3.14
3.24
3.15
3.19
3.25
1.57
0.57
-7.54
-16.08
2.82
3.14
3.24
3.15
EBITDA
8.12
7.55
7.08
6.09
4.76
6.21
7.09
7.29
7.75
7.50
Common stock
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
Dec '06
Dec '05
Dec '04
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments
Short-Term Receivables
23.91
5.68
3.96
1.88
27.05
11.32
18.50
4.42
19.11
3.91
168.83
161.31
172.52
148.31
93.40
186.00
184.74
192.72
163.24
108.83
37.36
36.75
35.99
29.07
16.99
32.51
39.72
38.72
45.92
14.67
230.10
203.74
212.47
179.26
137.44
229.83
242.95
235.86
228.26
127.41
21.16
14.82
16.86
21.78
19.97
24.02
24.60
23.24
20.16
17.83
23.12
18.86
18.24
20.96
22.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.27
294.84
260.23
266.90
319.75
195.20
375.72
354.80
352.84
356.01
135.53
0.51
Intangible Assets
Deferred Tax Assets
0.00
0.00
1.82
0.24
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
--
Other Assets
23.02
19.73
19.33
20.12
14.37
13.25
11.27
10.26
13.95
3.42
Total Assets
592.23
517.39
535.63
562.11
389.00
642.82
633.63
622.18
618.39
286.96
10.53
0.00
35.29
19.01
6.14
50.77
27.27
23.83
10.25
6.30
Accounts Payable
59.34
44.36
42.42
39.11
13.75
20.22
17.47
20.27
19.09
6.13
--
--
--
--
--
0.00
2.93
2.73
0.00
0.79
70.42
65.17
62.34
59.77
43.21
70.28
80.89
74.13
98.84
36.93
140.29
109.53
140.05
117.89
63.10
141.27
128.56
120.97
128.18
50.15
Long-Term Debt
148.67
158.18
174.91
202.17
102.14
100.95
121.57
162.09
196.65
97.37
58.42
53.20
23.93
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
17.76
5.28
--
0.00
0.79
58.47
71.09
69.37
65.13
--
Other Liabilities
9.34
9.10
37.01
60.22
52.13
58.00
36.28
25.22
35.23
2.66
Total Liabilities
374.49
335.28
375.90
380.28
218.16
358.68
357.50
377.64
425.19
150.18
0.00
0.00
24.08
28.38
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
217.74
182.11
135.66
153.46
170.84
284.13
276.13
244.55
193.20
136.78
217.74
182.11
159.74
181.83
170.84
284.13
276.13
244.55
193.20
136.78
Total Equity
217.74
182.11
159.74
181.83
170.84
284.13
276.13
244.55
193.20
136.78
592.23
517.39
535.63
562.11
389.00
642.82
633.63
622.18
618.39
286.96
Common Equity
4.73
3.99
3.35
3.92
5.24
8.72
8.16
7.07
6.19
4.83
-1.68
-1.71
-3.24
-4.24
-0.75
-2.81
-2.33
-3.13
-5.22
0.04
Supplemental
Working Capital
89.81
94.22
72.42
61.37
74.34
88.56
114.40
114.89
100.09
77.25
Total Capital
376.95
340.29
369.93
403.01
279.13
435.85
424.97
430.47
400.10
240.45
Total Debt
159.21
158.18
210.20
221.18
108.29
151.72
148.84
185.92
206.90
103.67
Net Debt
135.30
152.50
206.23
219.30
81.23
140.40
130.35
181.50
187.79
99.77
59.55
63.87
65.98
64.00
67.11
55.59
59.18
60.05
70.34
65.63
25.99
22.70
22.74
18.81
10.89
7.52
7.89
8.95
8.50
5.36
3.74
3.82
4.39
5.07
5.33
5.71
5.04
4.24
0.09
0.47
0.78
0.83
0.90
--
--
--
--
--
--
0.70
0.78
0.83
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
0.45
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
0.59
0.70
0.78
0.83
--
--
--
--
--
--
56.59
65.87
80.34
89.34
93.62
107.93
118.18
128.17
171.20
93.15
10.53
0.00
28.78
14.55
6.14
15.28
27.27
13.48
10.25
5.21
Common stock
Balance Sheet
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
Common Size - % of Total Assets
Year/Year growth
Common Size
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
Dec '06
Dec '05
Dec '04
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments
Short-Term Receivables
4.04
1.10
0.74
0.33
6.95
1.76
2.92
0.71
3.09
1.36
28.51
31.18
32.21
26.38
24.01
28.94
29.16
30.97
26.40
37.92
6.31
7.10
6.72
5.17
4.37
5.06
6.27
6.22
7.43
5.11
38.85
39.38
39.67
31.89
35.33
35.75
38.34
37.91
36.91
44.40
3.57
2.86
3.15
3.87
5.13
3.74
3.88
3.73
3.26
6.21
3.90
3.65
3.41
3.73
5.66
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.79
49.78
50.30
49.83
56.88
50.18
58.45
56.00
56.71
57.57
47.23
0.00
0.00
0.34
0.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
--
0.18
Other Assets
3.89
3.81
3.61
3.58
3.69
2.06
1.78
1.65
2.26
1.19
Total Assets
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Intangible Assets
--
--
--
--
--
0.00
0.46
0.44
0.00
0.28
11.89
12.60
11.64
10.63
11.11
10.93
12.77
11.92
15.98
12.87
23.69
21.17
26.15
20.97
16.22
21.98
20.29
19.44
20.73
17.48
Long-Term Debt
25.10
30.57
32.65
35.97
26.26
15.70
19.19
26.05
31.80
33.93
9.86
10.28
4.47
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
--
3.00
1.02
--
0.00
0.20
9.10
11.22
11.15
10.53
--
Other Liabilities
1.58
1.76
6.91
10.71
13.40
9.02
5.73
4.05
5.70
0.93
Total Liabilities
63.23
64.80
70.18
67.65
56.08
55.80
56.42
60.70
68.76
52.34
0.00
0.00
4.49
5.05
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
36.77
35.20
25.33
27.30
43.92
44.20
43.58
39.30
31.24
47.66
36.77
35.20
29.82
32.35
43.92
44.20
43.58
39.30
31.24
47.66
Total Equity
36.77
35.20
29.82
32.35
43.92
44.20
43.58
39.30
31.24
47.66
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Common Equity
Common stock
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
Dec '06
Dec '05
LTM
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
31.79
32.93
17.14
-26.27
-51.99
-122.18
34.36
36.53
35.09
22.23
14.85
13.55
14.15
16.42
15.08
4.81
4.69
3.50
10.33
6.18
--
3.03
6.95
-1.80
-10.71
-51.72
-3.37
1.14
18.08
19.02
Cash Flow
Operating Activities
14.30
7.97
24.55
54.80
66.27
203.32
20.83
18.70
4.06
4.62
62.04
57.48
62.79
43.15
18.65
34.23
56.51
59.87
67.55
52.05
-12.77
1.16
-2.27
-23.84
-10.56
64.51
7.18
19.77
-13.01
-7.96
49.27
58.64
60.51
19.31
8.09
98.73
63.69
79.64
54.54
44.09
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures
-13.58
-9.05
-5.47
-4.65
-4.17
-3.79
-8.80
-9.15
-9.71
-3.82
-39.50
-39.50
--
0.00
-3.23
0.00
-30.95
-5.48
-35.96
-111.51
--
0.60
9.05
--
--
0.00
--
--
0.00
0.00
-3.00
0.00
-0.62
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7.06
0.05
0.00
2.67
0.55
-25.46
-8.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
-48.41
-47.90
2.96
-1.98
-6.85
-29.25
-48.25
-14.63
-45.68
-115.33
Financing Activities
Change in Capital Stock
Issuance/Reduction of Debt, Net
0.47
1.18
0.53
0.00
0.00
0.01
-24.45
-16.29
-10.58
2.32
-3.60
-0.81
-59.98
-13.35
107.43
-51.80
-1.94
-37.92
-21.81
84.20
Other Funds
-2.57
-1.15
-2.23
-1.95
-133.88
-2.02
4.06
3.29
8.86
0.00
-5.71
-0.78
-61.68
-15.30
-26.45
-53.81
-22.33
-50.92
-23.54
86.52
-0.17
-0.06
-0.07
0.05
0.04
0.06
-0.29
-0.01
-0.01
-0.08
M iscellaneous Funds
-0.00
-0.00
0.00
-0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.00
-0.00
-5.02
9.90
1.72
2.08
-25.17
15.74
-7.18
14.07
-14.69
15.20
35.69
49.59
55.04
14.66
3.92
94.94
54.94
70.49
44.82
40.27
0.75
1.04
1.18
0.32
0.11
2.91
1.62
2.02
1.30
1.25
--
7.06
10.20
7.20
1.83
32.13
19.21
11.77
4.72
6.34
5.93
7.41
13.70
19.67
16.43
7.39
9.60
--
13.90
7.07
12.28
18.87
1.86
0.39
0.08
5.61
32.95
--
-7.91
6.35
Common stock
Ratios - Annual
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
5 Yr AVG
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
Dec '09
Dec '08
Dec '07
Dec '06
Dec '05
Dec '04
--
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
365 Days
365 Days
366 Days
Gross M argin
26.37
28.04
26.86
26.25
25.60
25.09
24.86
25.04
25.79
23.24
21.90
SG&A to Sales
21.77
21.83
21.27
22.01
23.03
20.70
18.95
18.75
19.00
16.60
16.13
4.60
6.21
5.59
4.24
2.57
4.39
5.91
6.29
6.79
6.62
5.78
Pretax M argin
-4.18
5.52
2.86
1.57
-9.04
-21.79
5.03
5.22
5.25
5.27
4.44
Net M argin
-3.65
3.25
1.57
0.57
-7.54
-16.08
2.82
3.14
3.24
3.15
2.76
Return on Assets
-4.98
5.94
2.85
0.91
-10.93
-23.68
5.38
5.82
5.66
4.91
5.93
Return on Equity
-11.00
16.47
8.78
2.94
-29.48
-53.71
12.26
14.03
16.03
13.48
13.72
-6.94
9.18
4.22
1.30
-15.24
-34.18
7.98
8.54
8.45
6.94
6.99
-7.56
9.32
4.44
1.40
-15.83
-37.13
8.78
9.08
8.81
7.13
7.28
14.47
16.59
17.93
5.37
2.46
30.01
16.27
19.80
13.69
14.13
16.38
Profitability (%)
Operating M argin
Valuation (x)
Price/Sales
0.44
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
2.12
0.69
0.57
0.23
0.31
0.39
0.23
0.51
0.88
0.90
0.79
21.30
34.10
--
--
--
8.29
16.35
27.00
28.67
28.93
3.11
2.90
1.32
1.57
1.73
0.97
2.10
3.89
3.19
3.30
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
362.21
Price/Cash Flow
12.17
11.98
8.92
10.54
26.45
2.99
4.49
7.52
17.42
14.41
12.78
19.10
14.17
9.80
13.88
54.56
3.11
5.21
8.50
21.20
15.78
14.69
Enterprise Value/EBIT
15.08
12.92
12.75
10.88
27.56
11.29
5.79
9.71
15.44
17.22
15.16
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
10.23
10.63
10.08
7.57
14.89
7.99
4.82
8.38
13.53
15.21
13.06
Enterprise Value/Sales
0.64
0.80
0.71
0.46
0.71
0.50
0.34
0.61
1.05
1.14
0.88
0.34
0.20
0.23
0.51
0.45
0.29
0.36
0.21
0.16
0.26
0.19
Per Share
Sales per Share
20.80
21.17
20.42
19.31
19.78
23.30
36.00
33.37
31.35
21.98
20.05
0.96
1.32
1.14
0.82
0.51
1.02
2.13
2.10
2.13
1.45
1.16
EPS (recurring)
0.24
0.66
0.47
0.11
-0.28
0.27
1.02
1.05
1.02
0.72
0.56
-0.96
0.69
0.34
-0.57
-1.49
-3.75
1.02
1.05
1.02
0.69
0.55
4.24
4.73
3.99
3.35
3.92
5.24
8.72
8.16
7.07
6.19
4.83
-2.32
-1.68
-1.71
-3.24
-4.24
-0.75
-2.81
-2.33
-3.13
-5.22
0.04
1.24
1.23
1.30
0.42
0.23
3.03
1.88
2.28
1.58
1.37
1.24
1.11
1.04
1.18
0.32
0.11
2.91
1.62
2.02
1.30
1.25
1.08
41.58
47.79
46.71
45.95
34.84
32.62
33.81
34.88
34.50
32.12
31.37
40.79
46.01
45.69
40.45
39.19
32.63
32.58
33.83
34.58
31.20
28.34
EPS (diluted)
Book Value per Share
Tangible Book Value per Share
131.4
68.40
197.85
303.67
47.64
39.60
81.66
101.59
91.93
61.33
146.37
Receivables
5.70
6.13
5.72
5.53
5.70
5.44
6.57
6.17
6.08
5.19
5.56
Current Assets
4.45
4.66
4.58
4.53
4.35
4.14
5.15
4.86
4.66
3.97
4.74
Fixed Assets
46.00
56.25
60.23
45.94
33.02
34.55
50.07
48.67
49.85
37.15
34.71
Total Assets
1.63
1.82
1.81
1.62
1.45
1.47
1.91
1.85
1.74
1.56
2.15
DuPont Analysis
Asset Turnover (x)
x Pretax M argin (%)
= Pretax Return on Assets (%)
1.63
1.82
1.81
1.62
1.45
1.47
1.91
1.85
1.74
1.56
2.15
-4.18
5.52
2.86
1.57
-9.04
-21.79
5.03
5.22
5.25
5.27
4.44
-5.48
10.06
5.19
2.54
-13.10
-32.09
9.59
9.68
9.15
8.21
9.53
58.98
59.70
36.03
--
--
56.14
60.10
61.82
59.83
62.17
-4.98
5.94
2.85
0.91
-10.93
-23.68
5.38
5.82
5.66
4.91
5.93
2.81
2.78
3.08
3.21
2.70
2.27
2.28
2.41
2.83
2.74
2.32
-11.00
16.47
8.78
2.94
-29.48
-53.71
12.26
14.03
16.03
13.48
13.72
100.00
100.00
--
--
--
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
-11.00
16.47
8.78
2.94
-29.48
-53.71
12.26
14.03
16.03
13.48
13.72
7.70
11.33
10.13
6.86
3.72
6.47
11.26
11.66
11.84
10.32
12.41
3.14
1.56
3.13
4.43
3.52
3.07
1.66
1.97
2.68
1.35
2.77
Operating Efficiency
Revenue/Employee
0.52
0.53
0.56
0.48
0.38
0.67
0.61
0.58
0.54
0.42
0.71
-0.02
0.02
0.01
0.00
-0.03
-0.11
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.02
Assets/Employee
0.31
0.31
0.30
0.29
0.31
0.34
0.32
0.32
0.31
0.36
0.32
5.70
6.13
5.72
5.53
5.70
5.44
6.57
6.17
6.08
5.19
5.56
19.82
14.04
16.08
16.05
19.40
33.52
48.55
46.24
40.78
42.96
68.06
Net Income/Employee
1.63
1.82
1.81
1.62
1.45
1.47
1.91
1.85
1.74
1.56
2.15
11.02
11.27
10.12
12.25
11.23
10.22
13.75
10.18
9.42
7.05
8.14
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
64.10
59.55
63.87
65.98
64.00
67.11
55.59
59.18
60.05
70.34
65.63
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
20.23
25.99
22.70
22.74
18.81
10.89
7.52
7.89
8.95
8.50
5.36
Current Ratio
1.74
1.64
1.86
1.52
1.52
2.18
1.63
1.89
1.95
1.78
2.54
Quick Ratio
1.74
1.64
1.86
1.52
1.52
2.18
1.63
1.89
1.95
1.78
2.54
Cash Ratio
0.14
0.17
0.05
0.03
0.02
0.43
0.08
0.14
0.04
0.15
0.08
7.16
10.39
2.79
1.86
1.05
19.68
4.92
7.61
1.87
8.37
3.07
54.83
41.80
55.25
13.79
6.86
156.47
45.09
61.95
45.09
34.40
77.84
Net Debt/EBITDA
3.25
1.77
2.26
3.81
6.69
1.72
1.63
1.54
2.17
3.55
2.37
Net Debt/(EBITDA-Capex)
3.63
2.01
2.46
4.17
7.66
1.87
1.81
1.72
2.45
3.83
2.69
Total Debt/EBITDA
3.47
2.08
2.34
3.89
6.74
2.30
1.76
1.75
2.22
3.91
2.46
3.07
6.81
3.29
1.59
0.90
2.79
6.68
5.77
4.40
5.59
4.58
EBITDA/Interest Expense
4.06
8.28
4.17
2.28
1.66
3.95
8.08
6.82
5.02
6.33
5.31
3.07
6.81
3.29
1.59
0.90
2.79
6.68
5.77
4.40
5.59
4.58
CFO/Interest Expense
3.91
6.35
3.73
0.81
0.41
8.26
5.96
6.39
3.27
5.27
4.92
LT Debt/EBITDA
3.17
1.95
2.34
3.24
6.16
2.16
1.17
1.43
1.93
3.72
2.31
Net Debt/FFO
4.74
2.35
2.43
4.78
11.76
2.37
2.48
2.18
2.69
3.61
3.36
LT Debt/FFO
4.60
2.59
2.52
4.05
10.84
2.98
1.79
2.03
2.40
3.78
3.28
FCF/Total Debt
0.32
0.31
0.35
0.07
0.02
0.88
0.36
0.47
0.24
0.19
0.33
CFO/Total Debt
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.09
0.04
0.91
0.42
0.54
0.29
0.21
0.38
LT Debt/Total Equity
87.12
68.28
86.86
109.50
111.18
59.79
35.53
44.03
66.28
101.78
71.19
LT Debt/Total Capital
43.99
39.44
46.48
47.28
50.16
36.59
23.16
28.61
37.65
49.15
40.50
LT Debt/Total Assets
30.11
25.10
30.57
32.65
35.97
26.26
15.70
19.19
26.05
31.80
33.93
32.78
26.88
30.57
39.24
39.35
27.84
23.60
23.49
29.88
33.46
36.13
88.63
62.14
83.74
129.11
120.60
47.55
49.41
47.21
74.22
97.20
72.94
Total Debt/Equity
95.32
73.12
86.86
131.59
121.64
63.38
53.40
53.90
76.03
107.09
75.80
43.99
35.89
44.81
55.75
54.41
29.10
32.21
30.67
42.16
46.94
41.49
47.84
42.24
46.48
56.82
54.88
38.79
34.81
35.02
43.19
51.71
43.12
Leverage (%)
Common stock
Income Statement
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar, except per share items
Jun '14
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
LTM
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
--
Sales
4,030.27
3,728.31
3,300.12
3,107.60
2,859.32
3,493.50
3,233.32
2,853.80
2,699.35
2,448.10
3,353.41
3,092.69
2,712.79
2,588.01
2,380.32
Income Statement
140.09
140.63
141.02
111.34
67.78
Gross Income
536.77
494.99
446.32
408.25
411.23
SG&A Expense
221.02
212.95
78.54
73.60
67.91
0.00
0.00
97.95
112.26
97.33
315.75
282.04
269.83
222.40
245.98
6.25
-4.70
2.44
-28.92
6.52
0.49
0.79
2.05
3.07
4.07
5.75
-5.49
0.39
-31.99
2.45
Interest Expense
142.01
184.72
182.11
112.59
22.91
149.59
82.45
21.89
19.05
19.09
3.73
5.67
14.09
6.48
--
--
8.40
--
--
--
--
--
0.50
--
--
145.86
68.38
7.31
12.57
19.09
Pretax Income
30.39
10.18
68.27
61.84
210.50
5.39
-0.99
27.46
28.57
79.13
--
-3
40
29
77
Income Taxes
Income Taxes - Current Domestic
Income Taxes - Deferred Domestic
Equity in Earnings of Affiliates
Consolidated Net Income
M inority Interest
--
-12
0.27
0.32
0.38
0.42
0.35
25.28
11.50
41.19
33.69
131.72
2.20
5.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
23.08
6.00
41.19
33.69
131.72
23.08
6.00
41.19
33.69
131.72
EPS (recurring)
0.73
0.41
0.32
0.27
0.87
EPS (diluted)
0.12
0.04
0.24
0.19
0.79
181.14
156.96
174.08
174.08
167.08
181.21
180.38
174.08
--
--
--
90.81
96.85
--
--
Net Income
Net Income available to Common
Earnings Persistence
EBITDA
455.84
422.67
410.84
333.73
313.76
EBIT
315.75
282.04
269.83
222.40
245.98
140.09
140.63
141.02
111.34
67.78
42.40
Supplemental
Rental Expense
Stock Option Expense
Tax Rate
--
44.80
42.90
42.90
2.79
2.55
2.55
11.53
4.02
17.73
-9.77
40.23
46.20
37.59
Common stock
Income Statement
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
Common Size - % of Sales
Year/Year growth
Common Size
Jun '14
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
86.68
86.72
86.48
86.86
85.62
Gross Income
13.32
13.28
13.52
13.14
14.38
SG&A Expense
5.48
5.71
2.38
2.37
2.38
0.00
0.00
2.97
3.61
3.40
7.83
7.56
8.18
7.16
8.60
0.15
-0.13
0.07
-0.93
0.23
Interest Expense
3.52
4.95
5.52
3.62
0.80
3.71
2.21
0.66
0.61
0.67
Pretax Income
0.75
0.27
2.07
1.99
7.36
Income Taxes
0.13
-0.03
0.83
0.92
2.77
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.63
0.31
1.25
1.08
4.61
Income Statement
Sales
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) incl. D&A
M inority Interest
0.05
0.15
0.00
0.00
0.00
Net Income
0.57
0.16
1.25
1.08
4.61
0.57
0.16
1.25
1.08
4.61
11.31
11.34
12.45
10.74
10.97
EBITDA
Common stock
Balance Sheet
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar, except per share items
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
--
234.33
610.08
174.86
--
Short-Term Receivables
801.15
625.14
525.72
--
Inventories
23.38
22.05
22.69
--
23.43
23.75
50.40
--
1,082.28
1,281.02
773.68
--
194.72
191.86
191.95
--
12.72
20.76
105.76
--
2,949.37
2,977.85
2,833.37
--
Other Assets
60.94
93.10
108.36
--
Total Assets
4,300.02
4,564.60
4,013.11
--
Balance Sheet
Assets
Intangible Assets
17.32
--
21.89
--
Accounts Payable
47.59
38.81
43.21
--
35.49
34.15
2.04
--
350.94
393.45
321.22
--
451.33
466.41
388.35
--
Long-Term Debt
1,895.38
2,268.26
2,357.70
--
175.43
189.37
186.01
--
151.13
156.76
151.31
--
Other Liabilities
17.00
20.22
16.25
--
Total Liabilities
2,690.26
3,101.02
3,099.62
--
Common Equity
1,594.72
1,457.04
913.49
--
1,594.72
1,457.04
913.49
--
15.03
6.53
0.00
--
Total Equity
1,609.75
1,463.57
913.49
--
4,300.02
4,564.60
4,013.11
--
8.84
8.37
--
--
-7.51
-8.74
--
--
630.95
814.61
385.32
--
Total Capital
3,507.42
3,725.30
3,293.08
--
Total Debt
1,912.70
2,268.26
2,379.59
--
Net Debt
1,678.37
1,658.18
2,204.73
--
2.56
2.86
--
--
69.82
63.64
--
--
4.87
5.25
--
--
-1.54
--
--
--
2.55
2.55
11.53
4.02
--
--
--
--
--
--
9.40
--
--
--
257.10
266.68
--
--
12.32
--
14.59
--
Common stock
Balance Sheet
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
Common Size - % of Total Assets
Year/Year growth
Common Size
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
5.45
13.37
4.36
--
18.63
13.70
13.10
--
Inventories
0.54
0.48
0.57
--
0.54
0.52
1.26
--
25.17
28.06
19.28
--
4.53
4.20
4.78
--
0.30
0.45
2.64
--
68.59
65.24
70.60
--
Other Assets
1.42
2.04
2.70
--
Total Assets
100.00
100.00
100.00
--
0.83
0.75
0.05
--
8.16
8.62
8.00
--
10.50
10.22
9.68
--
44.08
49.69
58.75
--
4.08
4.15
4.63
--
3.51
3.43
3.77
--
Other Liabilities
0.40
0.44
0.40
--
Total Liabilities
62.56
67.94
77.24
--
Common Equity
37.09
31.92
22.76
--
37.09
31.92
22.76
--
0.35
0.14
0.00
--
37.44
32.06
22.76
--
100.00
100.00
100.00
--
Balance Sheet
Assets
Cash & Short-Term Investments
Short-Term Receivables
Intangible Assets
Long-Term Debt
Common stock
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
LTM
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
--
25.28
11.50
41.19
33.69
131.72
158.05
158.59
141.02
111.34
67.78
--
2.42
31.93
-3.79
-1.18
Other Funds
124.89
59.05
11.65
17.06
10.29
306.88
231.55
225.78
158.30
208.61
-152.73
-177.44
-9.34
24.50
-23.07
154.15
54.12
216.44
182.80
185.54
-73.16
-65.88
-60.22
-64.85
-49.12
-232.97
-35.10
-193.00
-3,023.47
-119.90
2.63
0.74
7.22
0.27
0.20
Purchase/Sale of Investments
8.77
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
91.95
32.61
9.96
-154.04 -3,055.44
-158.87
Cash Flow
Operating Activities
Net Income / Starting Line
Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization
Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit
Investing Activities
Capital Expenditures
Net Assets from Acquisitions
Other Funds
-0.68
1.64
-295.41
-98.60
0.07
0.00
-428.78
0.00
0.00
1,042.16
1,041.88
-0.18
3.10
5.22
-225.73
-305.33
282.97
1,848.60
-78.58
-39.83
-545.19
7.40
867.60
1.15
266.83
191.36
-138.58
2,719.30
-72.21
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.00
125.57
146.88
-76.19
-153.34
-45.53
80.99
-11.76
156.22
117.95
136.42
0.45
-0.07
0.90
0.68
0.82
--
-0.21
--
--
--
Interest Paid
--
198.10
154.98
91.46
29.22
Taxation
--
13.35
-20.46
14.90
70.98
Common stock
Ratios - Annual
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
Dec '13
Dec '12
Dec '11
Dec '10
365 Days
366 Days
365 Days
--
Gross M argin
13.28
13.52
13.14
14.38
SG&A to Sales
5.71
2.38
2.37
2.38
Operating M argin
7.56
8.18
7.16
8.60
Pretax M argin
0.27
2.07
1.99
7.36
Net M argin
0.16
1.25
1.08
4.61
Return on Assets
0.14
0.96
--
--
Return on Equity
0.39
3.47
--
--
0.17
1.17
--
--
0.17
1.18
--
--
1.50
6.19
--
--
1.50
--
--
--
888.00
--
--
--
4.02
--
--
--
103.03
--
--
--
Enterprise Value/EBIT
28.72
--
--
--
Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Profitability (%)
Valuation (x)
Price/Sales
Price/Earnings
Price/Book Value
Price/Cash Flow
19.17
--
--
--
Enterprise Value/Sales
2.17
--
--
--
0.24
--
--
--
23.75
18.96
17.85
17.11
1.80
1.55
1.28
1.47
EPS (recurring)
0.41
0.32
0.27
0.87
EPS (diluted)
0.04
0.24
0.19
0.79
8.84
8.37
--
--
-7.51
-8.74
--
--
0.34
1.24
1.05
1.11
Per Share
Sales per Share
-0.07
0.90
0.68
0.82
156.96
174.08
174.08
167.08
180.38
174.08
--
--
8.83
8.41
--
--
5.23
5.74
--
--
Inventories
142.36
127.56
--
--
3.16
3.21
--
--
Fixed Assets
19.29
17.20
--
--
Total Assets
0.84
0.77
--
--
Current Assets
DuPont Analysis
Asset Turnover (x)
0.84
0.77
--
--
0.27
2.07
1.99
7.36
0.23
1.59
--
--
109.77
59.77
53.80
62.41
0.14
0.96
--
--
2.90
3.62
--
--
0.39
3.47
--
--
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
0.39
-32.70
--
--
6.36
6.29
--
--
4.30
3.99
2.81
--
Revenue/Employee
0.30
--
--
--
Net Income/Employee
0.00
--
--
--
Assets/Employee
0.34
--
--
--
5.23
5.74
--
--
142.36
127.56
--
--
74.88
69.57
--
--
0.84
0.77
--
--
5.91
4.05
8.06
--
2.56
2.86
--
--
69.82
63.64
--
--
72.38
66.51
--
--
4.87
5.25
--
--
67.51
61.26
--
--
Operating Efficiency
Liquidity
Current Ratio
2.40
2.75
1.99
--
Quick Ratio
2.35
2.70
1.93
--
Cash Ratio
0.52
1.31
0.45
--
21.65
47.62
22.60
--
11.99
46.40
47.07
--
Net Debt/EBITDA
3.97
4.04
6.61
--
Net Debt/(EBITDA-Capex)
4.70
4.73
8.20
--
Total Debt/EBITDA
4.53
5.52
7.13
--
1.53
1.48
1.98
10.74
EBITDA/Interest Expense
2.29
2.26
2.96
13.69
1.53
1.48
1.98
10.74
CFO/Interest Expense
0.29
1.19
1.62
8.10
--
0.53
--
--
LT Debt/EBITDA
4.48
5.52
7.06
--
Net Debt/FFO
7.25
7.34
13.93
--
LT Debt/FFO
8.19
10.05
14.89
--
FCF/Total Debt
-0.01
0.07
0.05
--
CFO/Total Debt
0.03
0.10
0.08
--
LT Debt/Total Equity
118.85
155.68
258.10
--
LT Debt/Total Capital
54.04
60.89
71.60
--
LT Debt/Total Assets
44.08
49.69
58.75
--
44.48
49.69
59.30
--
105.25
113.80
241.35
--
Total Debt/Equity
119.94
155.68
260.49
--
47.85
44.51
66.95
--
54.53
--
72.26
--
Coverage (x)
Leverage (%)
Appendix D
Industry Level Sales and Macroeconomic Indicator Variables 1998-2013 (all data as per references tab)
YEAR SALES ($M) OIL ($Barrel) UNEMP(%) CPI (%) FedFunds (%) GDP (%) Hstarts ($T) CPI (Level)
1995
43.86
16.75
5.6
2.81
5.83
2.7
1354.1
152.40
1996
80.83
20.46
5.4
2.93
5.30
3.8
1476.8
156.90
1997
197.63
18.64
4.9
2.34
5.46
4.5
1474.0
160.50
1998
273.14
11.91
4.5
1.56
5.35
4.4
1616.9
163.00
1999
373.56
16.56
4.2
2.21
4.97
4.8
1640.9
166.60
2000
473.84
27.39
4.0
3.36
6.24
4.1
1568.7
172.20
2001
872.39
23.00
4.7
2.85
3.88
1.1
1602.7
177.10
2002
1241.16
22.81
5.8
1.57
1.67
1.8
1704.9
179.88
2003
1265.41
27.69
6.0
2.27
1.13
2.5
1847.7
183.96
2004
4425.42
37.66
5.5
2.69
1.35
3.5
1955.8
188.90
2005
4668.39
50.04
5.1
3.39
3.22
3.1
2068.3
195.30
2006
5663.51
58.30
4.6
3.23
4.97
2.7
1800.9
201.60
2007
5420.72
64.20
4.6
2.85
5.02
1.9
1355.0
207.34
2008
6026.66
91.48
5.8
3.84
1.92
-0.3
905.5
215.30
2009
6041.18
53.48
9.3
-0.36
0.16
-3.1
554.0
214.54
2010
6469.36
71.21
9.6
1.64
0.18
2.4
586.9
218.06
2011
7328.65
87.04
8.9
3.16
0.10
1.8
608.8
224.94
2012
8139.70
86.46
8.1
2.07
0.14
2.8
780.6
229.59
2013
9277.74
87.13
6.7
1.47
0.11
1.9
923.4
232.96
Correlation Matrix
YEAR
YEAR
SALES ($M)
OIL ($Barrel)
UNEMP(%)
CPI (%)
FedFunds (%)
GDP (%)
Hstarts ($T)
CPI (Level)
1
0.964505504
0.927146605
0.672583851
-0.196483274
-0.805485994
-0.525615828
-0.613258571
0.996910966
SALES ($M)
1
0.951241767
0.635632857
-0.130452695
-0.72440978
-0.471882857
-0.606840663
0.972771359
1
0.59537833
0.059239277
-0.658183005
-0.462805095
-0.667575852
0.950786334
1
-0.50082
-0.82066
-0.54822
-0.81811
0.669261
CPI (%)
1
0.415865764
1
0.383275434 0.5423862
1
0.375030177 0.5546717 0.549252963
1
-0.164592005 -0.783589 -0.541106615 -0.64135177
Demand, Costs, Price More needs for medical care, higher demand for health care staff
Demand, Costs, Price The continuing rollout of Affordable Care Act
5
5
1
4
4
3
+
+
-
11898.39
12.30%
2014
10595.18
14.20%
Amount
% growth
8.52%
17.52%
7%
69048.77
6%
63622.5
3.5%
10900
10187
14751
3.4%
14252.4
2015
4 of the largest service providers accounts for 19% of the industry revenue
Demand, Price
4
3
2015
2014
Demand, Price
Demand, Price
Demand, Price
2
3
3
3
+
-
5
5
4
5
+
+
Costs
Costs
2
3
2
3
+
+
Significance
Legend
Outlook
0.951241767 Positive, with oil prices likely to rise due to various global issues
0.635632857 Positive, with lower unemployment rate
-0.72440978 Negative, with interest rate likely to rise next year
-0.606840663 Positive, with possibility of further slow down of the housing market
0.972771359 Positive, with consumer prices likely to rise due to continuing economic recovery
Legend
Impacts
Degree +/- Probable
Pos/Neg
Positive = + Low = 1 or 2 Low = 1 or 2 Demand
Costs
Negative = - Average = 3 Avg = 3
High = 4 or 5 High = 4 or 5 Price
Notes
Impacts
Probable
Degree+/Pos/Neg
Pos/Neg
Positive
Positive
Negative
Negative
Positive
Source
IBISWorld Forecast
% growth
Staffing Industry Analysis, Inc Forecast (Value Line does not have this info)
% growth
FactSet Forecast
% growth
Pricing Factors
Product Segmentation (Generic v. Brand Industry)
Rise of temporary employee hiring services as percentage of all product segments
Degree of Industry Concentration (Monopolistic)
Highly fragmented market with many small and medium service providers
Ease of Entry (Monopolistic)
Low barriers to entry, highly fragmented market
Limited Input Suppliers/Materials
Shortage of qualified medical professionals
External Factors
Technology
New electronic systems that can keep track of physician groups better
New information systems that can make the search process more efficient
Government
The continuing rollout of Affordable Care Act
Federal funding for Medicare and Medicaid
Social
Unemployment rate
Shortage of qualified physicians
Demographic
Aging population as baby boomers retire
Lower uninsured population
Foreign
Foreign health care serve providers expand into U.S.
Map of the Impact of Industry Soft Factors to Sales via Demand (Volume) and Price
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Industry
Sales ($M)
43.86
80.83
197.63
273.14
373.56
473.84
872.39
1241.16
1265.41
4425.42
4668.39
5663.51
5420.72
6026.66
6041.18
6469.36
7328.65
8139.70
9277.74
Year
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
GDP
4.9%
5.7%
6.3%
5.6%
6.3%
6.5%
3.3%
3.3%
4.8%
6.6%
6.7%
5.8%
4.5%
1.7%
-2.1%
3.7%
3.8%
4.6%
3.4%
4.49%
2.68%
3.93%
TMH
Sales
EVHC
Sales
1,572.17
1,613.36
1,829.05
1,232.07
1,331.32
1,423.44
1,519.26
1,745.33
2,069.02
2,383.60
1,604.60
1,655.49
1,934.21
2,106.99
2,409.86
2,569.69
2,859.32
3,107.60
3,300.12
3,728.31
84.30%
144.49%
38.21%
36.76%
26.85%
84.11%
42.27%
1.95%
249.72%
5.49%
21.32%
-4.29%
11.18%
0.24%
7.09%
13.28%
11.07%
13.98%
2.62%
13.37%
-32.64%
8.06%
6.92%
6.73%
14.88%
18.55%
15.20%
43.78%
9.13%
12.78%
5.97%
12.46%
16.21%
GDP
Forecast*
4.14%
5.06%
Industry
Forecast
14.20%
12.30%
Year
2014
2015
Min
6.54%
7.46%
Max
17.63%
17.34%
Year
2014
2015
Real GDP
2.00%
2.80%
CPI
2.10%
2.20%
63.57
87.72
146,514
230,766
517,794
775,683
714,209
629.02
705.84
1,081.70
1,164.02
1,217.20
759.79
689.22
887.47
953.95
1,011.82
MD
Sales
43.86
80.83
128,850
185,422
227,042
243,075
354,595
465,481
551,197
619.63
693.7
818.55
917.64
1,068.28
1,288.26
1,401.56
1,588.25
1,816.61
2,154.01
Percentage Growth
Company Competitor 1 Competitor 2 Competitor 3
Industry
Year
2014
2015
AHS
Sales
Company vs.
Industry
3.17%
16.84%
8.93%
14.37%
6.63%
11.27%
8.68%
6.20%
12.98%
37.99%
166928.43%
57.50%
124.38%
49.81%
-7.93%
-99.91%
12.21%
53.25%
7.61%
4.57%
-37.58%
-9.29%
28.76%
7.49%
6.07%
22.45%
7.06%
45.88%
31.27%
18.41%
-99.89%
11.95%
18.00%
12.11%
16.42%
20.59%
8.79%
13.32%
14.38%
18.57%
-4.08%
7.57%
-37.14%
6.36%
9.02%
3.03%
11.08%
13.95%
11.80%
-2.87%
-7.95%
-28.35%
-3.12%
6.68%
-0.36%
1.60%
7.48%
1.22%
9.90%
9.15%
9.28%
10447.71%
-0.91%
14.11%
10.05%
14.70%
12.16%
2.40%
9.78%
12.28%
-2.85%
3.32%
3.43%
Range
Mean
13.90%
13.41%
Company vs.
GDP
Median
15.17%
15.23%
Published Forecasts
Value Line
FactSet
12.23%
13.70%
12.13%
11.00%
Choice
14.00
14.50
*Nominal GDP
4.14%
5.06%
Note: Mednax (NYSE: MD) is eventually dropped from the analysis because ED is not their
primary service line
Soft Factors Affecting the Company's Position within the Industry (Ultimately Sales Growth)
Company = Team Health Holdings, Inc.
Life Cycle = Mature
Competitor 1 = Envision Healthcare
Competitor 2 = AMN Healthcare
Competitor 3 = MEDNAX, Inc.
Legend
Company
Factor
Previous Industry Factors that Vary by Company
Degree of Industry Concentration (Monopolistic)
Sales Patterns (see previous tab)
Sales Stability - Low Standard Deviation
Sales Growth
Products, Innovation, and Technology
Product Mix
Product Quality
Use of information systems
Management Quality
Customer Satisfaction
Customer Base
Loyalty
Sum of Totals, % Positive Trend
Competitor 2
Pos/Neg
Degree
Total
Trend
-4
-4
+
+
5
5
5
5
+
+
+
+
5
5
5
5
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
5
4
5
5
4
5
4
5
5
=
+
=
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
3
4
3
4
4
3
4
-3
4
N/A
N/A
34
67%
N/A
N/A
Pos/Neg Degree
Total
Total
Trend
-4
4
3
-4
3
+
+
=
=
=
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
5
4
5
5
4
5
4
5
5
=
+
=
+
+
21
56%
N/A
N/A
23
67%
Notes/Sources
Competitor 3
Pos/Neg Degree
Competitor 1
Total
Trend
-4
+
+
5
5
5
5
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
5
5
4
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
=
+
=
+
+
N/A
N/A
35
67%
Appendix E
ROA (%)
Envision Healthcare AMN Healthcare Industry
0.14
5.94
3.04
0.96
2.85
1.90
-0.91
0.91
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Receivables Turnover
Team Health Envision Healthcare
AMN Healthcare
Industry
5.88
5.23
6.13
5.68
5.76
5.74
5.72
5.73
5.99
-5.53
5.53
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Current Ratio
Team Health Envision Healthcare
AMN Healthcare
Industry
1.15
2.40
1.64
2.02
1.20
2.75
1.86
2.30
1.00
1.99
1.52
1.75
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Net Debt/EBITDA
Team Health Envision Healthcare
AMN Healthcare
Industry
1.96
3.97
1.77
2.87
2.89
4.04
2.26
3.15
2.53
6.61
3.81
5.21
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Total Debt/EBITDA
Team Health Envision Healthcare
AMN Healthcare
Industry
2.09
4.53
2.08
3.30
3.14
5.52
2.34
3.93
2.59
7.13
3.89
5.51
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
CFO/Total Debt
Team Health Envision Healthcare
AMN Healthcare
Industry
0.31
0.03
0.37
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.38
0.24
0.24
0.08
0.09
0.08
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Column1
Dec-13
Dec-12
Dec-11
Appendix F
Team Health Holdings, Inc.
TM H
Common stock
Income Statement
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar
Net Revenue
Dec '13
% Of
Final
Sales
Temp +1
Type
2014
% Of
Proforma
Sales
2015
Temp +1
Type
Proforma
2,383.60
1.00
2,717.30
2,717.30
100.00%
3,111.31
3,111.31
1,867.82
78.36%
2,129.31
2,129.31
78.36%
2,438.06
2,438.06
74.19
3.11%
84.57
84.57
3.11%
96.83
441.59
18.53%
503.42
503.42
18.53%
576.41
245.90
9.05%
271.83
257.51
9.48%
304.58
96.83
576.41
.
General and administrative expenses (includes
contingent purchase and other
acquisition compensation expense of $23,962 in 2013)
EBIT (Operating Income)
228.91
9.60%
245.90
212.68
8.92%
257.51
271.83
304.58
4.54
0.19%
5.17
5.17
0.19%
5.92
5.92
Depreciation
17.07
0.72%
19.46
19.46
0.72%
22.28
22.28
Amortization
37.55
1.58%
43.64
43.64
1.61%
40.11
40.11
14.91
0.63%
14.91
14.91
0.55%
14.91
14.91
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00
0.00%
0.00
0.00
Transaction Costs
3.81
0.16%
4.34
4.34
0.16%
4.97
143.88
6.04%
180.33
180.33
6.64%
228.23
56.31
39.14%
70.80
Net Income
87.57
3.67%
109.54
Pretax Income
Preferred Dividends
Common Dividends
Addition to Retained Earnings
0.16
0.01%
0.18
87.41
3.67%
109.36
---
--
87.41
109.36
70.80
39.26%
89.60
109.54
4.03%
138.63
0.18
0.01%
0.20
109.36
4.02%
138.42
4.97
228.23
89.60
138.63
0.20
138.42
--
--
-109.36
138.42
138.42
1.24
1.55
1.55
1.96
1.96
70.62
70.62
70.62
70.62
70.62
--
--
--
--
--
Common stock
Balance Sheet
Source : FactSet Fundamentals
All figures in millions of U.S. Dollar
Dec '13
% Of
Final
Sales
2014
Temp +1 Type Proforma
% Of
Sales
2015
Temp +1 Type Proforma
Assets
Current Assets:
Cash & Cash Equivalent
32.33
1.36%
36.86
392.43 16.46%
36.86
1.36%
42.20
42.20
431.79 15.89%
431.79
494.40
494.40
35.03
1.47%
39.93
39.93
1.47%
45.72
45.72
22.96
0.96%
26.18
26.18
0.96%
29.97
482.75 20.25%
534.76
534.76 19.68%
612.30
29.97
612.30
84.08
3.53%
84.08
84.08
3.09%
84.08
84.08
53.43
2.24%
60.54
60.54
2.23%
68.60
68.60
173.18
7.27%
173.18
173.18
6.37%
173.18
173.18
Goodwill
428.31 17.97%
428.31
428.31 15.76%
428.31
428.31
44.55
1.87%
44.55
44.55
1.64%
44.55
44.55
39.53
1.66%
39.53
39.53
1.45%
39.53
39.53
Other assets
55.58
2.33%
55.58
55.58
2.05%
55.58
Total Assets
1,361.41
57.12% 1,420.52
55.58
1,506.12
27.70
1.16%
31.58
31.58
1.16%
36.16
36.16
202.00
8.47%
230.28
230.28
8.47%
263.67
263.67
128.75
5.40%
146.77
146.77
5.40%
168.06
168.06
3.01
0.13%
3.44
3.44
0.13%
3.93
3.93
17.97
0.75%
24.84
24.84
0.91%
30.00
30.00
39.06
39.06
1.64%
39.06
418.49 17.56%
475.97
483.59 20.29%
458.75
190.84
190.84
Total Liabilities
1,092.93
8.01%
1.44%
39.06
475.97 17.52%
540.88
375.69 13.83%
345.69
261.12
190.84
7.02%
190.84
190.84
1,042.50 38.37%
1,077.41
45.85% 1,125.56
39.06
540.88
992.84
Shareholders equity:
Common stock, ($0.01 par value; 100,000 shares authorized,
70,016 shares issued
and outstanding at December 31, 2013)
Additional paid-in capital
Accumulated deficit
Accumulated other comprehensive gain
Team Health Holdings, Inc. shareholders equity
Noncontrolling interest
Total shareholders' equity including noncontrolling interest
0.03%
0.70
642.63 26.96%
0.70
642.63
-376.59 -15.80%
-267.24
0.02%
0.45
267.19 11.21%
376.54
0.45
0.05%
1.48
268.48 11.26%
1.29
378.02
1,361.41
57.12% 1,503.58
0.03%
0.70
0.70
642.63 23.65%
0.70
642.63
642.63
-128.81
-128.81
-267.24
-9.83%
0.45
0.02%
0.45
376.54 13.86%
514.97
1.48
0.45
514.97
0.05%
1.69
378.02 13.91%
513.28
513.28
1.69
1,506.12
Assumptions
Line Item
IS-15
IS-20
IS-21
IS-26
BS-12
BS-17
BS-18
BS-19
BS-20
BS-21
BS-22
BS-23
BS-32
BS-33
BS-36
BS-37
BS-44
Assumption
Estimated contingent purchase and other acquisition compensation expense (in thousands) are 12,263 and 4,313 for year ended 2014 and 2015 respectively
Estimated annual amortization expense (in thousands) for intangibles for 2014 and 2015 are 43,638 and 40,106 respectively
Estimated interest expense is the same as in year 2013
Used average tax rate for the past 3 years as the rate for 2014 and 2015
Used the most recent guidance of average collection period as the base for calculating accounts receivable for 2014 and 2015
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Used the CAGR of the past 5 years to predict net PPE for year 2014 and 2015
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Aggregate annual maturities of long-term debt (in thousands) are 24,844 and 30,000 for 2014 and 2015 respectively
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Aggregate annual maturities of long-term debt (in thousands) are 24,844 and 30,000 for 2014 and 2015 respectively
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Plug from 2013, too difficult to predict
Common stock
Dec '13
2014
2015
Final
Proforma
Proforma
Operating Activities
Net earnings
87.57
109.54
138.63
Depreciation
17.07
19.46
22.28
Amortization
37.55
43.64
40.11
1.02
1.02
1.02
9.89
14.34
20.79
1,930.25
1,930.25
1,930.25
-10.73
--
--
--
--
--
0.08
0.08
0.08
-1.81
-1.81
-1.81
-1,943.67
-1,969.61
-1,992.86
-2.37
-2.37
-2.37
1.93
1.93
1.93
Accounts payable
2.03
3.88
4.58
20.72
28.28
33.39
-10.59
-11.70
-7.95
-2.34
18.02
21.28
17.81
--
--
154.41
184.95
209.35
-21.38
-9.50
-10.87
0.13
--
--
-159.14
-177.82
-198.70
-86.77
-86.77
-86.77
73.08
73.08
73.08
--
--
--
-194.09
-201.02
-223.27
-16.25
-16.25
-16.25
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
-0.001
-0.001
-0.001
0.60
0.18
0.21
-0.52
-0.52
-0.52
2.99
2.99
2.99
30.50
30.50
30.50
13.45
13.45
13.45
30.77
30.35
30.38
-8.91
4.53
5.34
41.24
32.33
36.86
32.33
36.86
42.20
15.53
15.53
15.53
Taxes paid
52.21
70.80
89.60
2014 Inputs
Item
Net Income
CF from Operations
Non-Cash Charges
Interest Expense
Investment in NWC
Investment in FC
Tax Rate
EBIT
EBITNCC
Net Borrowing
Location Input
IS
CF
CF
IS
CF
CF
IS
IS
IS/CF
CF
109.5350139
184.946577
2006.97585
14.91
1931.564287
9.49756884
0.392592946
257.51116
2264.48701
-16.25
Location Input
IS
CF
CF
IS
CF
CF
IS
IS
IS/CF
CF
138.6284483
209.3503002
2012.718094
14.91
1941.996242
10.87491235
0.392592946
304.5784132
2317.296507
-16.25
2015 Inputs
Item
Net Income
CF from Operations
Non-Cash Charges
Interest Expense
Investment in NWC
Investment in FC
Tax Rate
EBIT
EBITNCC
Net Borrowing
Assumptions
Line Item
CF-12
CF-13
CF-14
CF-15
CF-16
CF-22
CF-27
CF-35
Assumption
Used the sales percentage method
Estimated annual amortization expense (in thousands) for intangibles for 2014 and 2015 are 43,638 and 40,106 respectively
Plug from year 2013, too difficult to predict
Used the CAGR of the past 2 years to predict
Used the CAGR of the past 2 years to predict
Change in accounts receivable is the net of CF-16 and CF-22
Estimated contingent purchase and other acquisition compensation expense (in thousands) are 12,263 and 4,313 for year ended 2014 and 2015 respectively
Used the CAGR of the past 2 years to predict
Appendix G
Cost of Debt Capital
Cost of Debt (Rd) =
5.16%
CAPM Approach
Risk-free Rate =
Beta =
Market Risk Premium =
Cost of Equity (Re) =
2.97% (FactSet)
1.07 (FactSet)
5.40%
8.75%
WACC
Weight of Debt =
Weight of Equity =
Cost of Debt =
Cost of Equity =
Tax Rate =
WACC =
21.54% (FactSet)
78.46% (FactSet)
5.16%
8.75%
39% (FactSet)
7.54%
Calculations/Sources
Market value
4083
Beta
1.07
Cash
93.4
Total liabilities
1121
Tax rate
39.26%
YTM of comparable bond (Rd) 5.16
Rf (30-year bond)
2.97
Wd
We
0.215411
0.784589
CAPM (Re)
WACC
8.75
7.538729
Appendix H
Team Health Holdings, Inc.
Gordon Growth Model
Dividends
P0=D1/(Re-g)
Cost of Equity
Assumption
2.5000% 2.7500%
8.00%
$0.00
$0.00
7.50%
$0.00
$0.00
7.00%
$0.00
$0.00
6.50%
$0.00
$0.00
6.00%
$0.00
$0.00
3% 3.2500% 3.5000%
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
WACC
Assumption
Forecasted CF Year 1
Forecasted CF Year 2
Stable Growth Rate (gL)
*Super Growth Rate (gS)
Number of High Growth Years
H
WACC
Sensitivity Table
Discounted FCFF
184.51
207.53
3.00%
14.00%
2
1.5
7.54%
5074.44
9.12%
8.29%
7.54%
6.79%
6.11%
Year
Cash Flow ($M)
Discounted Cash Flow ($M)
1
184.51
171.57
2
207.53
179.45
2 (and beyond)
5462.57
4723.42
Total DCF
5074.44
15%
10%
16.10%
3834.15
4447.11
5198.95
6250.58
7633.73
18.52%
3937.25
4568.19
5342.13
6424.71
7848.61
Appendix I
Industry Multiples
Market Cap
P/E
NTM P/E
P/S
P/B
EV/EBITDA
Team Health
4082.5
39.31
22.71
1.35
11.94
15.27
Industry
Multiples
253.2
23.6
1.4
3.7
17.0
Price/Earnings (x)
NTM P/E (x)
Price/Sales (x)
Price/Book Value (x)
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (x)
2013
39.31
22.71
1.35
11.94
15.27
Actual Values
Earnings per Share
Sales per Share
Book Value per Share
EBITDA
1.24
33.75
3.82
239.7
2012
30.94
2011
22.52
2010
74.00
2009
17.10
0.95
16.67
14.73
0.84
83.19
11.47
0.66
0.49
8.24
10.67
Actual Stock
Price
Implied Stock Price
57.79
313.92
57.79
29.28
57.79
48.58
57.79
14.25
Actual EV
4484.10
Implied EV
4075.51
Over/ Under
Undervalued
Overvalued
Overvalued
Overvalued
Over/Under
Overvalued
Appendix J
Appendix K
From: TeamHealth
Appendix L