Will it Ever Really Count?

Prof Greg Marsden

Institute for Transport Studies

Sustainable Development and

Sustainable Transportation

Sustainable Development and

Sustainable Transportation
Global Market

National
Economic System

Urban System

Telecommunications

Energy/Power

Water and Sewage

Transportation

System

System

System

System

Institutional

Infrastructure

System Users/

Transportation

Intermodal

Structure

System

Stakeholders

Modes

Connections

Transit Network

Highway Network

Non-motorized
Network

Land Use

Airway Network

Source: Adapted from Meyer

Arterials

Collectors

Local

and Miller (2001, p. 91).

Sustainable Development and

Sustainable Transportation
ECOSYSTEM

Production

Solar
Energy

Raw
Materials

Industrial
Communication

Transportation

Heat

Waste

Energy

Physical
Systems

Recycled
Materials

Other

Consumption

Source: Adapted from Daly

(1991)

Sustainable Development and

Sustainable Transportation
There can be no sustainable development
without sustainable transportation. It is an
essential component not only because transportation is a
prerequisite to development in general but also because
transportation, especially our use of motorized vehicles,
contributes substantially to a wide range of
environmental problems, including energy waste, global
warming, degradation of air and water, noise, ecosystem
loss and fragmentation, and desecration of the
landscape. Our nations environmental quality will be
sustainable only if we pursue transportation in a
sustainable way (Benfield and Replogle 2002, p. 647).

Example Impacts
Economic
Costs of transport to
customers/consumers
Time loss in traffic/ Congestion
Costs relating to accidents
Transportation facility
construction, maintenance and
disposal costs
Transportation-related health
costs
Depletion of non-renewable
resources and energy supplies

Environmental
Air pollution
Noise pollution
Vibration
Light pollution
Visual intrusion
Water pollution
Consumption of land/urban
sprawl
Release of toxic/hazardous
substances
Solid waste
Disruption of ecosystems and
habitats
Hydrologic impacts
Introduction of exotic species
Depletion of the ozone layer
Global climate change

Social
Mobility
Accessibility
Accidents
Obesity
Barriers for the disadvantaged
Inequalities associated with
impacts

Community livability
Gender imbalances
Cohesion/integration
Opportunity
Anxiety/Rootlessness
Migration

Source: Gudmundsson and Cornet

Sustainable Development and

Sustainable Transportation
a critical component of a broader economic system which
supports business and social development;
an open system, which requires natural and man-made inputs
and produces outputs which impact on the environment;
part of a social system that shapes and is shaped by that social
system, including other policy areas;
comprised of a series of physical sub-systems with a range of
physical and operational components and which are organized
through formal and informal conventions; and
fragmented series of partly connected yet partly competing
sub-systems with complex and varying governance
arrangements.

Sustainable Transportation
Where to make it count?
POLICY
LEVEL

ORGANIZATIONAL
LEVEL

PROJECT
LEVEL

Source: Gudmundsson and Cornet

European Transport White Paper

Policy Level
Overarching Aim
to build a competitive transport system
that will increase mobility, remove major
barriers in key areas and fuel growth and
employment. At the same time, the
proposals will dramatically reduce Europe's
dependence on imported oil and cut
carbon emissions in transport by 60% by
2050

Remembering Context

Remembering Context

Economic Impacts Assessed

Impact Areas

Indicators

Economic Impacts
Transport Activity

Passenger kilometers and tonne kilometers by all modes.

Modal Shift

Share of passenger or tonne kilometers by mode.

Transport costs to users

Unit cost per passenger or tonne transported (including capital costs, fixed operation
costs and variable fuel and non-fuel costs).

Economic growth

Qualitative inference of policy impacts on GDP only.

Efficiency of the transport

Not defined but incorporates notions of smart pricing, efficient networks, fuel efficiency

system

and vehicle purchase costs.

Congestion

Average speed and use of available road capacity.

Household costs

The share of passenger transport costs within the household income of the average EU
household.

Transport related sectors

Not defined but qualitative inference of the potential of the strategies to support the
European vehicle manufacturing industry.

Innovation and research

Not defined but qualitative inference about the impact of the strategy on research spend
on green innovation.

Reduction of administrative

Not defined but qualitative inference about overall levels of administration.

burden
EU budget

Not defined as will be assessed on a case by case basis.

International relations

Not defined but qualitative inference about the potential synergies and conflicts with

Social Impacts Assessed

Impact Areas

Indicators

Social Impacts
Degree of mobility

Refers to the % change in total transport activity for passengers with an

overall reduction being negative.

Choice

Not defined but qualitative inferences about rail investments improving

choice.

Accessibility

Potential accessibility is a generalized cost based measure. Larger areas are

more attractive and cost, time and distance are negative separation factors.

Distributional Impacts

Not clearly defined although the analysis refers in part to the distribution of
household costs by income band.

Employment level and

Number of jobs in the transport sector. Skills and working conditions are not

conditions

defined clearly.

Safety

External costs of accidents and total number of accidents.

Environmental Impacts Assessed

Impact Areas

Indicators

Environmental Impacts
Climate Change

Total CO2 emissions from transport. Both transport and well to wheel analyses are

Air pollution

Emissions of NOx and PM10 and external costs of these pollutants.

Noise pollution

External costs of noise pollution.

Energy use/energy

Total energy demand from transport Millions of Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (reviewed in

efficiency

Renewable energy

presented.

detail below). Energy intensity is an efficiency indicator that uses total energy demand
and transport activity to create a ratio for passenger and freight.
Total energy demand split by fossil fuels, biofuels and electricity.

use
Biodiversity

Not defined but qualitatively refers to fragmentation, land-take, loss of biodiversity and
damage to eco-system services.

European Transport White Paper

Review of Do-Minimum Case
200

Passenger transport
120%

150

31%

100
33%

51%

Mton CO2

50
0

-50

-100

CO2 intensity
-11%

Energy intensity

Activity level

Total

0%
-22%

-10%

-19%

-74%

-44%

-150
-40%

-200

Urban

Interurban

Intercontinental

Factors Influencing CO2 emissions

European Transport White Paper

Policy Option 2

Policy Option 3

Policy Option 4

Economic Impacts
Transport Activity

--

Modal Shift

++

Transport costs to users

---

--

Economic growth

++

+++

Efficiency of the transport system

++

+++

Congestion

++

Household costs

--

--

Transport related sectors

+++

+++

Innovation and research

+++

++

Reduction of administrative burden

EU budget

International relations

--

Degree of mobility

---

Choice

++

++

Accessibility

++

++

Distributional Impacts

Employment level and conditions

++

++

+++

Safety

++

Climate Change

+++

+++

+++

Air pollution

+++

++

++

Noise pollution

+++

++

Social Impacts

Environmental Impacts

European Transport White Paper

Largest Scale attempt for Sustainable
Transport Assessment
Significant improvement in transparency
Informs policy package choice (coherence with
longer-term goals)
Positive role as a signal

European Transport White Paper

Modelling systems not robust

Indicators are so aggregate as to lose meaning
Social context is flattened
Does not really reach out beyond transport
Implementation is largely national
Is this joined up?

Only limited signs that constraints are to play a

part
Curbing Mobility is not an option
Weak sustainability

High Speed Rail

Decision taken in same way
as other infrastructure
projects
Bespoke Sustainability
Appraisal also commissioned
Target Cost
Estimated Cost
Contingency
Total

Phase 1
17.16
15.65
5.75
21.4

Phase 2
n/a
12.5
8.7
21.2

Rolling Stock

Total

5.8
1.7
7.5

33.95
16.15
50.1

Source: Environmental Audit Committee

Towards documents about sustainable

transportation (2007, 2008)
Indicators
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
CO2 emissions by end user (industry, transport, domestic, other)
Aviation and shipping emissions
Private Vehicles: CO2 emissions, car-km, and final household expenditure
Road Freight: CO2 emissions, tonne-km, tonnes, and GDP
Road Transport Emissions NOx, PM10, CO2 emissions, and GDP
Emissions of air pollutants
Air Quality and Health
Ecological impacts of air pollution
Mobility

Getting to school
Accessibility

What is HS2 for?

Never been articulated as part of a sustainable transport
strategy
2009 SoS Transport Geoff Hoon announced creation of HS2
Limited in a statement to Parliament about expansion of
Heathrow
2 years previously, the Rail White Paper had said:
Higher speed is not the only or best way of cutting journey times.
Nor is it without cost. Increasing the maximum speed of a train
from 200 km/h to 350 km/h means a 90 per cent increase in energy
consumption. In exchange, it cuts station-to-station journey time by
less than 25 per cent and door-to-door journey-time by even less.
The argument that high-speed rail travel is a green option does not
stand up to close inspection on the basis of the present electricity
generation mix. (DfT, 2007b, p. 62).

What is HS2 for?

The remit of HS2 Limited was subsequently clarified to
focus, in order of priority on:
Passenger capacity: this is the driving consideration,
including capacity released on classic lines;
Speed;
Land use and development objectives and the support
of new housing development; and
Developing the line to be capable of handling freight
for greater network resilience.
Modal shift from air to rail was not expected to be a
key objective for HS2 (Rowlands, 2009).

Sustainability Appraisal

Source: Geisler et al. (2011)

Sustainability Appraisal
18 sustainability issues
33 objectives as shown in Table
33 objectives => 66 evaluation criteria
Key Sustainability Issue
Objective
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change
Climatic factors and
Improve resilience of the rail network against extreme
adaptability
weather events
Greenhouse Gases
Contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by
facilitating modal shift from road and air to rail
Reduce relative contribution made by rail to greenhouse
gas emissions by promoting energy efficient technologies
Natural and cultural resource protection and environmental enhancement
Landscape and townscape
Maintain and enhance existing landscape character
Maintain and enhance existing townscape character

Sustainability Appraisal
HS2 Objectives and Option identification process
Option Generation
Scheme Components

Sift 1

London
Terminus

Line of
Route

Etc.

90+ long list options

Review of Operations, Cost
Demand and Engineering

HS2 Board
Decision Point 1

Sift 2

50+ intermediate list options

Appraisal including simplified
Appraisal of Sustainability

HS2 Board
Decision Point 2

Sift 3

Shortlist of stations and whole routes

Appraisal including full
Appraisal of Sustainability

HS2 Board
Decision Point 3

Finalising preferred scheme and main alternatives

Likely Impact of Proposed

HS2

Likely change between the

current baseline and
future baseline
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change
resilience of the rail network
+
0
greenhouse gas emissions
+/+
Natural and cultural resource protection and environmental enhancement
landscape character
-townscape character
0
0
archeological assets
0
historic buildings
historic landscapes
biodiversity
surface water resources
0
groundwater resources
capacity of flood plains
Creating sustainable communities
local air quality
U
+
local noise environment
-local vibration environment
0
community integrity
0
pedestrian access
0
+
access to public transport
+
+
public transport interchange
+
+
mental well-being
0
0
physical health
0
+
health inequalities
0
0
road traffic accidents
0
0
crime and fear of crime
0
0
economic competitiveness
++
U
wider economic growth and
++
U
employment
employment
++
U
Support planned
++
development
Regeneration
+
++
Sustainable consumption and production
land resources
brownfield sites
+
+
waste protection
+
primary material resources
-

Cumulative Impacts

+
+
-0
-+
-0
0
+
++
++
0
+
0
0
0
++
++
++
++
++
+
+
-

Reflections on HS2 Case

Comprehensive coverage of indicators

Influential in changing route and route design
Transparency in categories that win and lose
No clear policy framework
No sense of fit to broader sustainability goals
Not commissioned to ask if it was worth doing

Conclusions It is counting
Significant increase in evidence base
Greater transparency in decision-making
processes
Pathways least consistent with direction of
sustainable development avoided
Possible to deploy to make specific projects
meet more of goals (see also GreenLITES)

Conclusions But not enough

As yet no consistent policy position on green growth
No evidence of limits being a strong influence on
pathways
Compromises are fudged in +++ -- overarching
summaries
Worrying lack of joining up across spatial scales (EUNational, National-Local)
Modal siloes continue to exist and limit integration
(absent in particular national strategy)
Cross-sectoral decision-making even further removed