International Renewable Energy Congress

November 5-7, 2010 Sousse, Tunisia

ANN based parameters estimation of Weibull: Application to wind energy

potential assessment of Sfax, Tunisia
Nabiha BRAHMI, Souhir SALLEM, Maher CHAABENE
Unit de Commande de Machines Electriques et Rseaux de Puissance CMERP-ENIS, Rte Sokra Km 3.5
brahminabiha@gmail.com
souhirsallem@gmail.com
maherchaabane@gmail.com

Abstract - Characterization,
sizing, and
environmental design and analysis of wind energy
conversion system require the assessment of wind
energy potential. The investigation requires
basically the wind speed distribution. The Weibull
probabilistic model is the most accurate approach.
Nevertheless, Weibull parameters estimation is
necessary accordingly to the site under study. This
paper presents a synthesis of the unknown
parameters estimation methods. Thus, a novel
approach is established by optimizing the
Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM). The
optimization is based on an Artificial Neural
Network (ANN). The developed algorithm is used
to determine the monthly wind energy potential of
Sfax city, Tunisia. The work effectiveness is
illustrated by a confrontation with measurements
provided by the National Institute of Meteorology
(INM).
Keywords Estimation, modeling, Wind potential
1. Introduction
Following the lack of fossil energy and the increase
of the world energy demand, governments and
societies become interested to renewable energies.
Wind energy is considered the most attractive as it
ensures high output power compared to other
renewable energies (photovoltaic, biomass ) [1].
Nevertheless, the assessment of the wind energy
potential is complicated since the wind speed and
availability is stochastic. Probabilistic distribution of
wind speed is the most successful approach to reflect
the wind behavior [2, 3]. Hence, wind speed variation
can only be estimated along a determined period [4].
As well, wind distribution has been developed so as
to ensure concrete assessment for wind potential for a
considered site [5]. In addition, many researchers
developed evaluation of the wind Use Factor (UF)
[6]. This paper gives investigation for the
optimization, the design and the sizing of wind plants
[7]. Different estimation approaches are computed
using the available metrological data. The adopted

ID154/ IREC2010

estimation approach is selected on the basis of its

accuracy. Finally, an ANN database is generated on
the basis of a measurement of the wind potential in
the region of Sfax, Tunisia. The generated database is
therefore applied to the selected approach so as to
estimate Weibull parameters.
2. Weibull Distribution
The essential factor in wind potential assessment is
the distribution of wind speed. Weibull distribution is
the most famous approach. It characterizes the
velocity functions of two parameters (k, c) [8]. The
probability density function for a speed is defined
by Eq. (1)

>0

(1)

Where c is the scale factor having the same unit of

speed (/) and k is the shape factor. The
corresponding cumulative distribution function is
given by Eq. (2):

=
[( ) ]

(2)

Many methods are used in the determination of k

and c : the Least Squares Method (LSQ), the
Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM), and the
Modified Maximum Likelihood Method (MMLM).
Following a synthesis of the different approaches is
given. Thus, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is
applied on the most accurate approach in order to
estimate the wind potential in Sfax.
2.1 Least Squares Method (LSQ)
Determination of the parameters of the Weibull
distribution requires an efficient fit of the recorded
discrete cumulative frequency distribution (Eq.2) [9].
By applying the natural logarithm for two times on
both sides of equation 2, this latter becomes:
ln (1 ln F v ) = kln v kln c
(3)
The plot of ln (1 ln
(F v )) versus is
affine with a slope and an intercept k ln
(c) with

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the y-axis. Let = (1

( )) = +
=

which is calculated by:

1
=
=1

= ()

3. Proposed Approach

= ()
Using the LSQ method applied on a measurement
database vectors (Y, X). The values of k and c are
consequently estimated. Consider:
1
1 1
1
2
2 1
2
.
.
.
.
. , = .
=
, (, )
. , = .
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

Where is the white noise vector.

The estimated value of is expressed as:
= ( )1
(4)

In the previous approaches, especially in the Weibull

method, a classified speed is used, so the calm speed
becomes ( = 0 /), = 0 / = 0, which is
wrong. To overcome this limitation an ANN is
added. Thus, ANN generates a huge data from the
meteorological measurements. As a result the
frequency for any speed is obtained (Fig. 1).

Normalized Root Mean Square

error
Approach
Selection

Parameters estimation of
Weibull :

2.2 Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM)

Meteorological
data base

Maximum likelihood is a method proposed by

Stevens and Smulders [10]. It is a statistical method
used to identify the parameters of a probability
distribution. Shape and scale parameters of Weibull
distribution are given by (Eq. 5 and Eq. 6):

( )
=1

=1

= (
1

= (

( 10)

A. Least squares method

B. Maximum likelihood method
C. Modified maximum likelihood
method

D. Rayleigh distribution

( ))
=1

ANN
Approach

(5)

=1 )

(6)

Where n is the number of measures.

k is the initial shape factor, fixed to k = 2 because
the experiment proved that it varies between 1.7 and
2.3 in the most of cases.

A simple modification in the calcul of the shape

parameter K is added this method more accurate,
when a small data is available [11]. The expression
of k becomes:
n
k
(v i )
i =1 v i ln
n v k
i=1 i

n
(vi ))
i=1 ln

Figure 1.The ANN based estimation approach

2.3 Modified Maximum Likelihood Method

(MMLM)

k = (n 1)(n

Power full
data base

The most accurate

approach

(7)

The structure of the neural network (Fig. 2) consists

of three layers. The first one or entrance layer has
two neurons or nodes (V and F). The second layer
(hidden layer) has many nodes according to the size
of the favored data base. And finally the last layer
(output layer) provides the huge database.

2.4 Rayleigh Method

A particular case of Weibull distribution, considers
k = 2, called Rayleigh distribution [12, 13]. The
cumulative function is expressed by (Eq.8):
= 1 (

(8)

The density function is given by (Eq.9)

=

2 ( )

( 9)

The Rayleigh law depends only of the mean speed

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Huge data
base

Restraint
data base

The four methods are monthly valided. Fig 3 show

the density function of the wind speed according to
fours seasons.
January
0.3

MMLM
MLM
Measure
LSQ
Rayleigh

0.25
0.2

0.15

f(V)

0.1
0.05
0

Input
Layer

Hidden
Layer

Output
Layer

-0.05

10

15

20

speed (m/s)

Figure 2.The structure of the ANN based approach

April
0.2
MMLM
MLM
Measure
LSQ
Rayleigh

4. Comparison of classic methods

=1(

=1

0.1
0.05
0

(11)
-0.05

Where is the number of reading points.

NMBE can be positive or negative depending on
the estimation is higher or lower than measures.
The maximum likelihood method is the most
accurate one as it provides a monthly error between 0.06% and 12.72%. As LSQ method engenders an
error interval of [-1.33, 46.35]. This is due to its
graphic based calculation. The Rayleigh method
gives high error as it considers a constant k. Finally,
the MMLM approach is juged efficient because it
offers acceptable error interval [0.296, -18.263] and
it ensures the treatment of frequential data (Table 1).

10

15

20

speed (m/s)
July
0.25
MMLM
MLM
Measure
LSM
Rayleigh

0.2

f(V)

% = 100

f(V)

Developed models are tested using measures from

INM in order to evaluate their performances.
Monthly estimated and measured data were analyzed
by computing the normalized mean bias error factor
(NMBE).

0.15

0.15
0.1
0.05
0

10

15

20

speed (m/s)

Table. 1. Monthly error with different methods

October

MLM

MMLM

Rayleigh

January

32.732

-9.014

-17.614

-17.982

February

53.651

-9.044

-17.500

-19.406

March

43.675

-9.790

14.743

10.891

April

-24.958

-10.102

-18.263

-17.839

Mai

-1.335

-4.002

-8.8059

-7.4835

June

-4.657

-2.168

-3.738

-3.7074

July

46.353

-5.625

-10.435

-4.084

august

-7.965

-0.061

0.296

1.557

September

-30.617

-3.738

-6.573

-7.646

October

-18.727

-1.482

-1.872

0.151

November

21.081

12.727

18.159

18.678

December

-9.985

-3.336

-5.789

-5.499

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0.3
MMLM
MLM
Measure
LSM
Rayleigh

0.25
0.2

f(V)

LSQ

0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05

10

15

20

speed (m/s)

Figure 3.Season validation

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5. The ANN based MLM improvement

7. Results and discussion

The novel approach computes the monthly

Weibull parameters k and c. The monthly shape and
scale parameters relative to region of Sfax are given
by Table 2.

Considering table 2, the density () diagram is

given by figure 4. For the two distribution months
(January and February), it is clear that measures
follow estimations.

Table. 2 Monthly shape and scale parameters

January
0.35

c(m/s)
3.768
5.677
5.395
4.519
4.563
6.584
4.862
3.177
5.077
7.565
5.075
5.824

1.574
1.801
1.953
1.668
1.860
1.705
1.954
1.353
2.202
1.968
1.806
1.543

0.25

0.05
0

1 1

vF = (1 )
k

(13)

(14)

Where is the defined gamma function, for any

reality x positive not null, by:

(15)

Where is the air density ( = 1.225 /3), I is

the turbulence intensity ( = 0.2 at 10m in open
areas) and is the power coefficient.
The corresponding monthly energy is expressed by
(Eq. 16)
(/) = (24 30 )/1000

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measure
ANN

0.25

f(V)

0.15
0.1
0.05
0
-0.05

10

15

20

vent (m/s)
Figure 4.ANN based approach estimation
Wind potential presents a random variation its
maximum is in October and its minimum is in
August.

Energy (KWh/month)

= 1 + 3 2 3 =
2

15

200

The theoretical maximum power that can be

extracted from an optimum wind turbine is limited by
the Betz equation:

1 + 3 2 3 1 +

10

February

0.3

vent (m/s)

(12)

vE = c (1 + )

0.15

0.2

Using shape scale parameters, the evaluation of the

wind potential is calculated. The characteristic speed:
the mean speed , the most energetic speed and
the most frequent speed are defined by the
following expressions:

2 1

0.2

0.1

6. Wind energy assessment

= 1 +

measure
ANN

0.3

f(V)

Month
January
February
March
April
Mai
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

150

100

50

6
Months

10

12

Figure 5.Monthly wind energy

(16)

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7. Conclusion
A new methodology of Weibull parameters
estimation is presented. Many other methods are
computed: graphical method by means of LSQ,
particular case of Weibull distribution called
Rayleigh, and statistical classic methods. According
to the NMBE computation, the MLM is recognized
as the most accurate approach. By applying ANN
database generation, the Weibull parameters
estimation is adjusted so as to deliver accurate
values. Accordingly, the novel approach is used to
calculate the monthly scale and shape parameters in
order to evaluate the monthly wind potential. As a
result the monthly wind energy distribution is
obtained. However, even non conventional methods
are used, wind distribution estimation presents
limitation in its maximum. Hence, the introduction of
a third Weibull parameter in the distribution becomes
necessary.

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