A Prospect

A prospect is a location and depth that has been identified

as a good place to drill for oil and/or gas
For us to find oil or gas, certain conditions must be meet

There needs to be a source for the oil or gas

The source rocks need to be cooked to the right degree
There needs to be a porous rock to hold the oil or gas
There needs to be a subsurface trapping geometry
There need to be a seal
There needs to be plumbing
p
g connecting
g source and reservoir

Alpha

Beta

Objectives & Relevance

Obj
Objective:
i
Introduce the types of considerations
necessary to get a prospect ready for
management approval
Relevance:
Demonstrate some the tasks that go into determining
the size of the prize and the risk associated with a
prospectt

Overview of Prospect Analysis

Given the
Gi
th geologic
l i framework
f
k and
d the
th results
lt off our data
d t analysis,
l i
our next task is to analyze and assess viable prospects:

Analyze
y p
prospect
p elements
Source, Migration, Reservoir, Trap, Seal
Consider the most-likely scenario
Consider other cases - the range of possibilities

Asses the prospect

What volumes of HCs can we expect?
Will it be oil or gas?

Risk the Prospect

p
What is our level of confidence that all the prospect elements work?

Outline
1. Define prospect elements
2. Estimating trap volume
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

Outline
1. Defineprospectelements
2. Estimatingtrapvolume
3. HCType
HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

Plumbing To Connect
the Container to the Kitchen

A Kitchen
Where Organic
Material Is
C k d
Cooked

Correctly
Placed
Wells

A Container
From Which
Oil & Gas
Can Be
Produced

A Real HC System
Draupne Shale

organic rich
serves as a source rock

Heather Shale
Sognefjord Shale
both organic poor

Oil
Spill
Point

Facies
Change
g

Fault
Leak
Point

HC Generation & Expulsion

Brent Sandstone
acts as a reservoir

oil & gas from the Draupne, gas from coals in the Brent

HC Migration

into Brent carrier beds and up faults

HC Fill & Spill

late gas displaces early oil

Most-Likely
y Scenario
Alpha

Beta
Sea Water

Oil

Overburden

Fill & Spill

Seal
Reservoir

Oil

Migration

Source
Basement

Oil

Generation

18 Ma

Most-Likely
Most
Likely Scenario
Alpha

Beta
Sea Water

Overburden

Oil

Migration

Seal
Reservoir

Oil

Migration

Source
Basement

10 Ma
Oil

Generation

Most-Likely
y Scenario
Alpha

Beta
Sea Water

Overburden

Oil

Migration

Seal
Reservoir

Oil & Gas

Migration
g

Source
Basement

Oil

Generation

Gas

Generation

Present

Most-Likely
y Scenario
Beta

Alpha

Oil

Oil

18 Ma

Map of the Reservoir Unit

Most-Likely
Most
Likely Scenario
Beta

Alpha

Oil

Oil

10 Ma

Map of the Reservoir

Rese oi Unit

Most-Likely
Most
Likely Scenario
Beta

Alpha

Gas

Oil

Oil

Present

Map of the Reservoir Unit

Explorations
p
Task
Identify
O
Opportunities
t iti
Acquire
Seismic Data
Interpret
Seismic Data

Capture
Prime Areas
Drill
Wildcats

Process
Seismic Data

Failure
Assess
Prospects
1.
2.
3.
4.

Volume
HC Type
Assessment
Risk

Success

Confirmation
Well

Uneconomic Success
Drop
Area

To EMDC
or EMPC

Outline
1. Define p
prospect
p
elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk

Lets
Let
s start an exercise

Exercise
We will do some quick estimates using a
series of simplifying assumptions

Outline
1 Define
1.
D fi
prospect elements
l
2. Estimating
g trap
p volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
DHI Analysis
AVO Analysis
HC Systems Analysis

Oil or Gas???

Modelresponsewithdifferentrock&fluidproperties

Ifthereshouldbeadifference,whichfluidtypedoes
theseismicdatasupport?

Quantittative

Shouldtherebeadifferenceinseismicresponse
(AVO) between an oil filled reservoir and a gas filled
(AVO)betweenanoilfilledreservoirandagasfilled
reservoir?

Extractamplitudesfromnear andfaranglestacks

FFromourbasinmodeling&HCsystems
b i
d li & HC t
analysis,whichfluidtypeshouldweexpect
Qu
ualitativ
ve

Whatdidthesourcegenerate
g
Whatdidthetrapleakorspill

Model Seismic Responses - Input

10%
Porosity
y

Gas

Oil

Brine

20%
Porosity
y

30%
Porosity
y

Model Seismic Responses - Output

10% Porosity
Off t
Offset

20% Porosity
Off t
Offset

30% Porosity
Off t
Offset

Model Seismic Responses - Output

AVO Crossplot
Gas
Oil
Brine
Shale

04
0.4
10%

Slo
ope

02
0.2
20%

00
0.0
30%

-0.2
02

-0.4
04
-0.3 -0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

Intercept

0.2

0.3

Questions???

Many times the seismic data

will
ill give
i us clues!
l
!

How can we verify this scenario?

To what level are the traps filled with oil & gas?

What would be the value ($) if our scenario is correct?

How much more/less HC could there be?

How risky is this prospect (chance that we are totally wrong)?

Seismic Line over Alpha

p
Alpha

Fluid Contact?
Gas over Oil?

Fluid Contact?
Oil over Water?

Outline
1 Define prospect elements
1.
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4 Assessment
4.
5. Risk

Types of Assessments
Once a lead has been high-graded into a
prospect, we have to assess its potential value

Deterministic
D t
i i ti Assessment
A
t
One value for each parameter
One final number, e.g., 200 MBO

Probabilistic Assessment
A range of values for each parameter
A range of outcomes, e.g. 200 50 MBO

Scenarios & Probabilities

Scenario 1

Alpha

Scenario 2

Gas Cap & Oil Leg

40% Chance of Occurrence

Scenario 3

Alpha

Gas Only
20% Chance of Occurrence

Scenario 4
Alpha

Oil Only
30% Chance of Occurrence

Alpha

Low Gas Saturation

10% Chance of Occurrence

Deterministic Prospect Assessment

To Assess a Prospect, We Assign Numbers
to the Parameters related to HC Volumes
In our exercise,
we have assumed
the all oil case
(Scenario 3)

Unrisked means everything in the HC System has worked!

Alpha Prospect Assessment Results

Oil
Million Barrels Oil

Scenario 1

112 MBO

Gas
Billion Cubic Ft Gas

95 GCF

Oil & Gas

Scenario 2

Million Oil Equivalent

q
Barrels

121 MOEB
6 GCF = 1 MBO

0 MBO

314 GCF

Gas Only

Scenario 3

Oil-Equivalent

52 MOEB
Uneconomic

192 MBO

0 GCF

192 MOEB

0 MBO

0 GCF

0 MOEB

Oil Only

Scenario 4
Low Gas Saturation

Uneconomic

Assuming 100 MOEB is needed to make prospect economic

Probabilistic Assessment
The Goal is to Get A Number and a Range of
Possible Outcomes
p a Range
g of Values for Each
We Input
Assessment Parameter
usually minimum, most-likely, maximum
Area

Min

ML

Max

12

20

27

Thickness

Net:Gross

Porosity

HC Sat.

FVF

Recovery

Unrisked Results
100%

100
80%

Ec
conomic Minimum

Excedan
nce Prob
bability

Alpha Prospect Unrisked

60%
40%

20%

0%
0

100

200

300

Milli B
Million
Barrels
l off Oil
50% Chance of finding 200 MBO or more
75% Chance of finding the economic minimum

400

Outline
1. Define p
prospect
p
elements
2. Estimating trap volumes
3. HC Type
4. Assessment
5. Risk
25% Risk

75% Chance
Ch
off S
Success

9 Key Elements of the HC System

Source
Quality

Source
Maturation

HC
Migration

Reservoir
Presence

Trap
Quality

Reservoir
Quality

Seal
Adequacy

Biodegradation

Not Low Gas

Saturation

A team of experts consider these key elements for each prospect.

They rate the chance of success (COS) for each on a scale of 0 to 1

COS for Alpha

Alphas biggest risk is that the fault does not seal.
There is also a chance that the trap is only filled
with low saturation gas
Reservoir Presence - - - - 1.0
10
Reservoir Quality

- - - - 1.0

Trap Quality

- - - - 1.0
10

chance of success

Seal Adequacy

- - - - 0.8

(COS)

Source Quality

- - - - 1.0
10

Source Maturation

- - - - 1.0

HC Migration

- - - - 1.0
10

0.72
Highest Risk

Not Low Gas Saturation - 0.9

Biodegradation

10
- - - - 1.0

Some Risk

Risked Probabilistic Assessment Results

Alpha Prospect Main Compartment - Risked
1.0

100

Gas Only
Ec
conomic Minimum

0.8

0.6
04
0.4

0.2

0.0
0

100

72 % COS

Gas Cap & Oil Leg

58 % Chance of
Finding More
Than the
Economic
Minimum

Oil Only

200

300

400

Milli Oil Equivalent

Million
E i l t Barrels
B
l
72% Chance to find any hydrocarbons
58% Chance to find 100 MBOE
5% Chance to find 400 MBOE

500

Exercise
In the exercise we will use
A COS of 60%
An economic minimum of 100 MBOE

Summaryy
Weve Gone from Identifying an Opportunity
i the Bonanza Basin
in
i to Drilling
i i a Wildcat
i
at
the Alpha Prospect

I Hope that YOU

Learned some
things about G&G
in Industry
along
g the way!
y