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abstract
Article history:
Special issue: Progress and prospects
of atmospheric environmental science
in China
Understanding the eectiveness of national air pollution controls is important for control policy design
to improve the future air quality in China. This study evaluated the eectiveness of major national
control policies implemented recently in China through a modeling analysis. The sulfur dioxide (SO2 )
control policy during the 11th Five Year Plan period (20062010) had succeeded in reducing the
national SO2 emission in 2010 by 14% from its 2005 level, which correspondingly reduced ambient
SO2 and sulfate (SO4 2 ) concentrations by 13%15% and 8%10% respectively over east China. The
nitrogen oxides (NOx) control policy during the 12th Five Year Plan period (20112015) targets the
reduction of the national NOx emission in 2015 by 10% on the basis of 2010. The simulation results
suggest that such a reduction in NOx emission will reduce the ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), nitrate
(NO3 ), 1-hr maxima ozone (O3 ) concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by 8%, 3%14%, 2%
and 2%4%, respectively over east China. The application of new emission standards for power plants
will further reduce the NO2 , NO3 , 1-hr maxima O3 concentrations and total nitrogen deposition by
2%4%, 1%6%, 02% and 1%2%, respectively. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate the
inter-provincial impacts of emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta,
which indicated the need to implement joint regional air pollution control.
Keywords:
air pollution control
sulfur dioxide
nitrogen oxides
power plant
DOI: 10.1016/S1001-0742(13)60381-2
Introduction
Recent studies indicate that the status of air pollution in
China is far more complicated than ever before (Shao
et al., 2006; Hao et al., 2007; Chan and Yao, 2008;
Wang and Hao, 2012). With the rapid development of
the economy, urbanization and transportation, almost all
types of air pollution problems, which were experienced
for nearly a century in developed countries, exploded in
China within last two decades. Complex air pollution,
characterized by regional photochemical smog and haze,
Corresponding
14
1 Methodology
1.1 Emission inventories
Item
2005
2010
2015
18322
1306
2500
353
1069
19.2
31097
1340
4207
627
1880
23.0
45692
1390
5579
675
1940
26.0
29.7
34.1
36.5
15
Table 2
Year
Name
Transportation
(TR)
Residential
sector (DO)
2005
2010
Reference (REF)
Business as usual (BAU)
Baseline (BAS)
2005 baseline
2005 baseline
Clean combustion
technology employed
in industries;
comprehensive treatment
of waste gases
2005 baseline
2005 baseline
The same as BAU
2005 baseline
2005 baseline
Clean fuel used
in residential
sector;
concentrated
urban heat supply
2015
2005 baseline
2005 baseline
FGD system installed in all new
thermal power plants
and most existing ones;
shut down small plants
with low energy eciency
during 11th FYP
2010 baseline
LNB used in all
coal-red power plants;
ue gas de-NOx technology
installed in the plants
that are 200 MW or larger
New emission standard
implemented for
power plant
2010 baseline
LNB applied in newly-built
industrial boilers
including sinters and
the cement plants with the
precalcining technique
The same as 12th FYP
2010 baseline
Applied
the new
vehicle
standard
(Euro IV)
The same as 12th FYP
2010 baseline
Energy saving
and clean fuel used
in residentialsector;
Concentrated urban
heat and gas supply
The same as 12th FYP
New emission
standard for
power plant (POW)
east China (ECH), i.e., NCP, the YRD and the PRD, as well
as three megacities, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou
located in each region, have been chosen as the target areas
and cities. The simulation period is January and July in
2010.
The simulations of this modeling system have been
validated through comparison with observations of satellite
retrievals and surface monitoring data, in aspects of the
NO2 , SO2 column density and Aerosol Optical Depth, as
well as ground concentrations of SO2 , NO2 , PM10 , PM2.5
and its component.
1.3 Validation of emission reductions using observed
SO2 /NO2 ratio
The changes of SO2 and NOx emissions may cause
a considerable change of SO2 /NO2 ratio observable in
Transportation
Industry
30
30
25
20
SO2
NOx
3.29
0.39
2.46
0.39
9.92
12.11
15
10
18.52
15.83
5
0
3.11
0.39
12.83
9.07
2005
2010
BAS
2010
BAU
40
35
Power plant
1.84
25
1.75
20
6.00
5.71
1.84
1.33
15
5.53
10.39
4.76
1.84
5.53
9.20
10
5
0
5.09
9.57
6.97
7.90
2005
2010
4.22
9.57
9.31
2015
BAU
2015
FYP
2.61
2015
POW
16
Table 3
Anhui
Beijing
Chongqing
Fujian
Gansu
Guangdong
Guangxi
Guizhou
Hainan
Hebei
Heilongjiang
Henan
Hubei
Hunan
Jiangsu
Jiangxi
Jilin
Liaoning
Nei Mongol
Ningxia
Qinghai
Shaanxi
Shandong
Shanghai
Shanxi
Sichuan
Tianjin
Tibet
Xinjiang
Yunnan
Zhejiang
Total
PM10
NMVOC
2005REF
2010BAU
2010BAS
2005REF
2010BAS
2015BAU
NOx
2015FYP
2015POW
2010
2010
640
213
689
437
324
1107
792
1496
57
2377
293
1764
1255
1012
1764
585
383
1146
978
355
18
914
3356
370
1621
2025
374
1
309
557
1385
28597
786
263
871
540
394
1344
985
1834
68
2921
356
2121
1543
1259
2140
712
473
1404
1188
424
23
1105
4111
450
1954
2515
458
1
387
687
1714
35031
578
202
715
404
270
912
758
1253
46
2112
243
1328
1114
965
1433
483
348
992
779
253
20
700
2914
305
1219
1898
327
1
305
505
1297
24679
763
316
259
384
318
1155
364
416
54
1468
574
1287
675
575
1348
353
452
808
683
157
50
412
1767
407
813
712
257
15
286
428
946
18502
943
460
377
720
425
1664
528
461
90
1728
644
1707
826
780
1736
532
544
1061
1065
262
87
633
2363
468
1037
883
366
24
417
493
1250
24574
1039
414
400
860
475
1825
560
521
96
1918
690
1807
903
843
1896
566
571
1139
1177
303
85
701
2635
522
1130
925
387
23
433
500
1405
26749
784
348
334
675
356
1341
461
386
72
1480
538
1448
732
676
1254
454
443
908
803
199
69
523
2140
338
840
798
267
21
359
415
876
20338
698
340
316
608
312
1284
433
336
64
1434
483
1323
683
625
1180
420
397
822
655
158
65
460
1963
313
725
768
254
21
333
387
819
18679
502
112
209
284
182
638
551
377
48
791
371
781
433
489
779
248
281
528
385
85
36
240
930
150
471
621
142
2
333
276
462
11737
872
362
341
476
225
1817
775
393
114
1113
558
1157
685
626
1845
391
400
797
421
92
46
324
1884
476
489
1274
238
13
338
401
1239
20182
YRD
PRD
Three cities
Four regions
17
PRD
BEJ
ECH
70
60
6
4
3
2
2006
2007
2008
2009
20
2010
80
14
70
12
60
NO2(g/m3)
NO2VCD(1015mole/cm2)
30
0
2005
10
8
6
10
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2008
2009
2010
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.2
SO2/NO2(Year2005=1.0)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2007
30
2
2006
2006
40
20
2005
2005
50
1.4
SO2/NO2(year2005=1.0)
40
16
GUZ
10
1
0
SHH
50
SO2(g/m3)
SO2VCD(DU)
NCP
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
Fig. 3 Observed annual mean concentrations of SO2 , NO2 and the SO2 /NO2 ratio during 20052010. BEJ: Beijing; SHH: Shanghai; GUZ: Guangzhou;
VCD: vertical density.
18
Table 4
Simulated 2010 baseline SO2 and SO4 2 concentrations and their changes in two hypothetical emission scenarios (unit: g/m3 )
NCP
SO2
SO4 2
January
July
January
July
YRD
PRD
ECH
BAS
FYP
BAU
BAS
FYP
BAU
BAS
FYP
BAU
BAS
FYP
BAU
42.3
13.0
4.9
9.6
14%
15%
10%
12%
+22%
+27%
+15%
+17%
47.3
15.7
7.9
5.1
14%
15%
8%
10%
+23%
+24%
+12%
+14%
19.6
6.7
7.0
1.9
13%
13%
8%
8%
+22%
+21%
+13%
+12%
19.6
5.2
5.0
4.5
14%
15%
8%
10%
+23%
+25%
+13%
+15%
Table 5 Comparison between the simulated and observed changes of the concentrations of SO2 and NO2 and the SO2 /NO2 ratio during 20052010
Type
Simulation
Observation
BAU
BAS
Satellite
Monitor
Region
SO2
NO2
(SO2 /NO2 )
ECH
ECH
ECH
NCP
YRD
PRD
Beijing
Shanghai
Guangzhou
+23%
14%
38%
21%
20%
39%
32%
52%
37%
+37%
+37%
+11%
+34%
+10%
18%
13%
19%
22%
Two months (January and July) mean for simulations, annual mean for observation, (SO2 /NO2 ) = (1 + SO2 )/(1 + NO2 ) 1.
19
Table 6 Simulated NO2 , NO3 , O3 concentrations and total nitrogen deposition (TN) in 2010 baseline as well as their changes in three 2015
scenarios
NCP
NO2
(g/m3 )
NO3
(g/m3 )
O3 (g/m3 )
TN
(kg/(hamonth))
Jan
Jul
Jan
Jul
Jul
Jan
Jul
YRD
PRD
ECH
BAS
BAS
BAS
BAS
38.5
12.5
19.3
13.6
141.8
0.9
8.8
+8
+9
1
+10
+1
+3
+2
6
8
1
13
2
2
3
9
12
2
19
4
4
4
44.2
24.2
22.9
8.2
123.4
1.5
7.0
+7
+9
0
+8
+1
+4
+3
13
16
0
17
3
6
5
15
19
1
21
4
8
6
28.7
12.5
8.9
1.8
94.1
1.8
3.7
+6
+7
+3
+2
1
+5
+2
9
12
5
8
+1
7
4
11
14
7
10
+1
9
5
4.6
1.8
3.6
1.0
82.0
0.4
1.5
+10
+6
+2
+10
+1
+4
+2
9
7
3
14
2
4
2
13
10
5
20
2
6
3
45N
35N
Jan
BAU
30N
25N
20N
40N
Jul
35N
30N
25N
20N
40N
35N
Jan 30N
25N
20N
40N
35N
Jul
30N
25N
20N
Min:0Max:27.06
90E
Min:-0.173Max:2.376
90E
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:-2.787Max:0.522
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
40
32
24
16
8
0
Min:-13.505Max:0.195
Min:-1.107Max:1.614
45N
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:-12.884Max:1.037
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:0Max:51.83
NO3-
Min:-11.531Max:1.592
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:-8.651Max:7.059
40
32
24
16
8
0
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:-9.378Max:2.001
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:0Max:108.08
45N
POW
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:-2.568Max:6.354
40
32
24
16
8
0
45N
FYP
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:0Max:126.99
NO2
40
32
24
16
8
0
40N
Min:-3.9Max:0.395
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
Min:-4.635Max:0.201
90E
Min:-5.654Max:0.18
90E
concentrations in 2010 baseline as well as their changes in three 2015 scenarios (monthly mean, unit: g/m3 ). BAU
20
BAS
BAU
45N
40N
35N
30N
25N
20N
45N
POW
FYP
40N
35N
30N
25N
20N
90E
100E
110E
120E
130E
90E
100E
110E
120E
130E
Fig. 5 Simulated O3 concentration in July 2010 baseline as well as its changes in three 2015 scenarios (monthly mean of daily 1-hr maxima, unit:
g/m3 ). BAU = BAU BAS; FYP = FYP BAS; POW = POW BAS.
45N
40N
35N
Jan
30N
25N
20N
Min: 0.002 Max: 7.204
45N
40N
35N
Jul
30N
25N
20N
100E
110E
120E
130E
90E
90E
100E
110E
120E
130E
90E
100E
110E
120E
130E
90E
100E
110E
120E
130E
Fig. 6 Simulated total nitrogen deposition in 2010 baseline as well as its changes in three 2015 scenarios (monthly mean, unit: kg/(hamonth)). BAU
= BAU BAS; FYP = FYP BAS; POW = POW BAS.
21
Table 7 Comparison of local and regional control eectiveness in target cites (response to 10% controls on SO2 /NOx emissions from individual
province (unit: %)
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
Jan
Beijing
Tianjin
Hebei
Beijing
Tianjin
Hebei
Jul
SO2
4
NO3
SO2
NO2
SO4 2
NO3
SO2
NO2
SO4 2
NO3
7.7
0.2
1.8
5.4
1.8
2.6
3.8
0.1
0.3
7.3
0.4
0.4
2.8
0.1
1.4
0.8
0.8
2.3
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
2.1
3.7
0.2
8.7
0.8
0.1
8.9
0.7
0.2
3.8
0.2
0.0
7.0
0.2
0.2
5.6
0.9
0.1
1.9
1.4
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.4
3.0
0.2
1.6
7.7
0.1
1.5
7.8
0.4
1.4
4.1
0.0
1.4
8.6
0.2
1.0
4.5
0.2
0.6
2.8
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.4
1.2
3.1
Shanghai
Jiangsu
Zhejiang
Shanghai
Jiangsu
Zhejiang
Jul
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei
Beijing
Tangshan
1
2
Tianjin 3
SO2
NO2
SO2
4
NO3
SO2
NO2
SO2
4
NO3
SO2
NO2
SO4 2
NO3
8.1
1.2
0.1
9.3
0.2
1.1
3.7
0.1
0.0
5.7
0.1
0.7
3.8
0.5
0.0
2.8
0.4
1.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
0.3
1.3
4.3
0.5
2.9
6.1
0.8
8.6
1.2
0.3
1.7
2.8
0.5
6.1
0.8
0.3
1.4
1.7
0.3
2.7
1.6
0.2
1.1
0.2
0.6
0.4
6.1
0.8
0.6
8.4
0.0
0.1
10.1
0.7
0.3
3.9
0.0
0.2
9.1
0.7
0.4
2.8
0.1
0.1
4.5
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
8.3
YRD
Suzhou
5 4 Shanghai
6
Jiaxing
Fig. 7
NO2
YRD
Jan
SO2
3 Conclusions
Based on the modeling sensitivity analysis, the eectiveness of the 11th and 12th FYP national control policies in
improvement of air quality in China was evaluated. The
controls of SO2 and NOx emissions during the 11th and
12th FYPs have improved the air quality in metropolitan
areas of China, particularly the ambient SO2 , NO2 and
inorganic aerosol concentrations. The SO2 and NOx emission reductions beneted regional O3 and total nitrogen
deposition, but more eorts are still needed to further
control the NOx emissions as well as the emissions of VOC
and NH3 .
There are signicant inter-provincial impacts among
the cities within the Hebei-Beijing-Tianjin area and YRD,
so the actions of regional joint controls can improve the
22
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