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Abstract: Are we entering an age of disorder? Recent events worldwide, and the continuing threat of global economic downturns, suggest the potential for large-scale civil disturbances. If so,
public order maintenance and containing riots and disturbances will become key concerns as states and their security forces (the police and military) respond to an age of political and economic
uncertainty. An operationally sound response to riots, mobs, and other forms of disorder has strategic implications for governments across the world. This essay looks at the dynamics of riots and
order maintenance. We examine the politics of crowd power in a networked environment and suggest approaches to develop sound intelligence to understand the range of riot and crowd control
issues that security services encounter in urban riot control. While the complex operations literature has understandably focused on overseas operations, domestic public order maintenance is an
equally demanding undertaking with far-reaching political consequences. Operations must simultaneously prevent harm and disorder while avoiding provocation and respecting the right to
voice dissent. Managing public order, in turn, requires an understanding of the nuances of crowds and mobs and the dynamics of domestic interagency coordination.
Economic turmoil, a lack of opportunityperceived or actualand the seeming emergence of a networked global protest movement suggest that police and military services need to prepare for a range
of public order missions. As the London riots, growing Occupy Wall Street and Indignados movements suggest, disorder, protest, disturbances, and urban unrest are once again key security issues.
During the Rome riots, cars were torched and banks and public buildings were attacked, demonstrating that economic populist movements connecting the have-nots or economically fragile can create
a powerful backlash.
As the London and Rome riots so painfully demonstrate, mass social disturbances are not just a matter of policing or crowd control tactics. In his review of operational riot intelligence, Alex Calvo
recently noted that the riots in London and other UK cities were punctuated with accounts of flashpoints where the population was left unprotected in the face of what could be described as a
combination of urban guerillas and occasional criminal insurgents.[1] Riots are a bridge between tactical disturbance and wider social unrest, with possible violent implications.
Government failure to correctly handle civil disturbances can have wide-ranging strategic consequences. The threat of violent crowdswhether mostly spontaneous or the result of deliberate
provocation and instigationis perhaps the oldest internal threat to organized governance. From the ancient world to the era of totalitarianism, intellectuals and politicians have feared the wrath of the
crowd and placed a premium on restraining political and criminal mob violence. While the fundamentals of riot controla firm hand that applies overwhelming yet proportional suppressive force at the
outset of civil unresthave not changed, the challenge of 21 st century civil disturbances demand a more cohesive style of command. Key to riot suppression in future actions is the ability to organize
tactical actions in time and space to accomplish strategic objectives.
Riots are neither purely political nor criminal events. We are tempted to view them as either rebellions of the repressed or pure criminality. They arise from a complex array of motivations ranging
from political grievance to pure boredom. Some mass social disturbanceslike the perennial tendency of Los Angeles sports fans to riot after LA Lakers gamesare completely criminal in nature and
reflect the influence of strong drink rather than socioeconomic inequalities. Others, like the 1864 New York Draft Riots, are the violent outcome of larger political disturbances. Most riots are a
combination of both criminal (profit and experience-seeking) and political (disputes over justice and power relations) causes.
Broadly political causes lie in the background of many riot situations. A recurring theme in mob violence is the struggle for political power. The Gracchi brothers, who tried to further the power of
the Plebeians in ancient Rome, were murdered by armed mobs of aristocrats. The history of Italian city-states, particularly Machiavelli and Dantes home of Florence, is marked by internecine conflict
and civil war. In Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr and other local figures have been remarkably successful in instigating crowds of followers to engage in violent protests. Mobsinstigated by charismatic
figuresare the oldest tool in organized politics for securing power and influence. Perhaps the most famous example of crowd power in literature is Shakespeares rendition of Mark Anthonys funeral
speech oration for Julius Caesar, which incites the mob to drive Gaius Brutus and his fellow conspirators from Rome.
United Nations peacekeeping and stabilization missions have also repeatedly dealt with crowds of militia and supporters of local warlords in many nations who aim to present them with the hard choice
of using forceand hurting unarmed civiliansor ceding ground and possibly endangering their own lives. Such operations are made even more difficult by the intermixing of armed men with
protesting civilians, and the presence of the mass media.
Deep political, ethnic, and economic divides have also historically sparked rioting. Ethnically inspired riots have been particularly pernicious, as communities have increasingly grown less ethnically
homogenous. This is not to say, however, that they are always the product of ancient hatreds. Many civil disturbances that are thought to be the product of spontaneous eruption of never-ending tribal
hatreds are in fact the consequence of deliberate instigation by political elites seeking to manipulate existing prejudices for their own advantage or the actions of irregular groups fighting for larger
political causes. This is not purely a modern issue, as the recurring horror of the blood libel in Europe over the centuries reflected deliberate instigation of mass violence against Jews. Conversely, not
every riot has a clear point of origin. Academic research and practical experience has long shown that riots are a tipping point phenomenon. A small group of violent rioters is all that it takes to derail
a peaceful protest and generate increasingly high-intensity property violence and motivate less politically motivated looters to take to the streets.[2]
The Range of Action: Typology of Disorder and Riots
Riots are complex events. Their complexity lies not only in the range of motivations, but the fact that riots--or violent outbursts of mass actionoccur within a spectrum of crowd and mob activity
resulting from a variety of underlying and proximate causes. This is further complicated by the fact that they are transient events that generally occur at low frequency making preparedness problematic
for both political and security authorities. At the simplest level, riots can result from the spontaneous convergence of a number of contributory factors fueled by the acute interaction of precipitating
events with a specific catalyst at a specific flashpoint. For example protests (which are generally lawful and protected speech) can erupt into disorder when demonstrators are confronted by
counterdemonstrations or unskilled police response (known as police riot.) Another variation of spontaneous eruption is the case of celebratory sports riots. At the other end of the spectrum are
organized, deliberate violent outbursts, such as football (soccer) hooliganism or orchestrated political violence. A variation that may fall into either spontaneous or orchestrated events is the flash
mob.
Crowds and Mobs
Different levels of mobs exist. At the highest end of the mob power spectrum are disorganized militia that cannot quite be called professional soldiers nor designated entirely civilians, who swarm with
cheap weapons and even their bare hands. Perhaps the largest and most gruesome example of militia mobs is the 1994 Rwandan genocide, painstakingly organized by Hutu political elites. Historically,
these riots require some level of organization or at least consistent political mobilization---especially if risk exists or the task is too large for spontaneous organization. Even so, political mobilization
is no guarantee of effectiveness in the face of cold, hard, steel. Napoleons famous whiff of grapeshot blew away political opponents that surely would have butchered him and the assembled
Directory holding court at the Tuileries in 1795 if their fervor had not been met with overwhelming violence.
At the lowest end of the spectrum are rioters in major metropolitan cities, usually unarmed and mainly seeking to carry out opportunistic crimes to take advantage of the temporary lifting of domestic
order. These riots are as much a product of rioters taking the path of least resistancecasually looting storefronts and avoiding police patrols as they scamper to bring their new high-def flat screens
homeas strong and passionate rage.
A typology (or order of battle) describing the range of actors that may become involved in disorder and riots is useful. Crowds can be casual, cohesive, expressive or aggressive. Crowds can morph
into mobs with the right catalyst(s). Mobs can be aggressive, expressive, acquisitive, or seek escape. All of these variations are possible in hybrid combinations.[3] A brief description of each
crowd/mob variation follows.
Casual crowds are composed of individuals gathered in a common space with no common purpose; they have no emotional tie to the crowd. Cohesive crowds assemble for a common purpose such as
a sports event or concert; members identify themselves as individuals but the collective can possess strong internal discipline and react with high levels of emotion. Expressive crowds gather for a
unified purpose such as a demonstration or protest, they have common purpose and display of range of emotions. They can become frustrated and agitated and quickly erupt if frustrated or provoked.
Aggressive crowds have a strong unity of purpose and a strong sense of group identity. They can be stimulated or provoked into destructive and lawless behavior. They are the most dangerous crowd
form since they can transition into an aggressive mob.
Aggressive mobs engage in violent and lawless behavior. Violence is usually transient and can be directed against persons or property. These are primarily emotion-driven and can trigger sustained
rioting. Expressive mobs view violence as a legitimate tool of rebellion, resistance, or protest. Acquisitive mobs seek to acquire something. They can be looters exploiting chaos or confusion. They
have little emotional investment and can be controlled effectively be police intervention. The final mob type is the escape mob, or persons fleeing imminent danger. These are extremely difficult to
control since they are sustained by fear.
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Tactical and operational objectives include assessing the crowd/mob, containing and isolating disruptive activity, and dispersal of violent and unlawful actors. Tactically, this demands an assessment of
alternative dispersal routes, knowledge of crowd composition and dynamics (including focal/convergence points and axis of crowd movement), and a description of closed areas. Crisis mapping, red
teaming (alternative analysis), CyberInt (or cyber intelligence that gains understanding of social media), and an understanding of our own organizational capacities are needed to navigate the space of
emerging disorder.
Conclusion: Avoiding Pathways to Failure
Civil disorder is fraught with complexity and misfortune. Dissecting failure also helps future operations by going beyond individual use of force to look at systemic failures. In this way, Eliot Cohen
and Michael Goochs concepts of military failure in Military Misfortunes can be usefully applied to the civil realm. Most studies of civil failure center around simple failuresindividual failures to
learn, adapt, or anticipate that are nevertheless survivable and in some cases are inherent to complex endeavors. Much more dangerous are aggregate failureswhere a combination of two simple
failures build up to something largeror a catastrophic failure when three simple failures occur simultaneously or consecutively, leading to a complete organizational breakdown.[14]
Cohen and Goochs critical failure methodology can be utilized to look at the 1992 Los Angeles riots. As seen in Los Angeles, a failure to learn, anticipate, and adapt coalesced to resulted in
catastrophic failure. Crucial to understanding that breakdown was the dysfunction of command and control across all levels of command for the counter-riot response (strategic: political, police
executive; operational: senior command, and tactical: field command). [B]reakdowns at all levels, each compounded by lapses within each critical task [lead to the} ultimate outcome of catastrophic
failure.[15]
Addressing complex civil disturbances, disorder, and riots is likely to be a staple of contemporary security operations (police, constabulary/gendarmerie, and military) operations globally for the
foreseeable future. Negotiating this unstable civil environment will require an understanding of the dynamics of crowds and mobs in physical and cyber space to discern between constitutionally
protected speech and dissent and unlawful mobs of many types. It can be anticipated that these dynamics will occur simultaneously demanding adept and adaptive operational responses and agile
intelligence support over a broad area of (distributed) operations.
This portends many complicating factors. Most dangerous is complacency. Make no mistakewhat occurred in London (and Rome) may happen in the US and elsewhere. What occurred in London is
less the consequence of ethnic tension but a large-scale epidemic that struck even affluent districts.[16] The difference between local failure and catastrophic failure will be government response
(including civil-military interoperations) and preparation by all echelons of political and civil order.
[1] Alex Calvo, London Riots: Decentralized Intelligence Collection and Analysis, Small Wars Journal, 09 August 2011 at http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/london-riots-decentralizedintelligence-collection-and-analysis.
[2] Edward Glaeser, How Riots Start, and How They Can Be Stopped, Bloomberg News, 12 August 2011, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-12/how-riots-start-and-how-they-canbe-stopped-edward-glaeser.html
[3] See Christopher Kozlow and John Sullivan, Janes Facility Security Handbook, Alexandria: Janes, 2000, 277-280.
[4] Donald L. Horowitz, The Deadly Ethnic Riot, Berkeley: University of California Press, 2003, op cit.
[5] Shlok Vaidyas reports can be found at the blog Indias Naxalite Rage: http://naxaliterage.com/
[6] Jack McDonald, The Leviathans New Clothes: Information and Power Relationships, Kings of War, 10 August 2011, http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2011/08/the-leviathans-new-clothes-informationand-power-relationships-by-jack-mcdonald/
[7] John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt (eds), Networks and Netwars: The Future of Terror, Crime, and Militancy, Santa Monica: RAND, 2000.
[8] Bruce Crumley, The Paris and London: A Tale of Two Cities, Time, 9 August 2011, http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/08/09/the-riots-of-paris-and-london-a-tale-of-two-cities/
[9] Sophie Body-Gendrot, Disorder in World Cities: Comparing Britain and France, OpenDemocracy, 15 August 2011, http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/sophie-body-gendrot/disorderin-world-cities-comparing-britain-and-france
[10] John P. Sullivan, Critical Pathways: Responding to the 1992 Los Angeles Riot, Journal of California Law Enforcement, Vol. 30, No. 1, 1996, 14-18.
[11] Sullivan, ibid.
[12] Thomas E. Drabek, Managing the Emergency Response. Public Administration Review, Vol. 45, 1985, 85-92 and Sid Heal, Sound Doctrine: A Tactical Primer, New York: Lantern Books,
2000, 41-51
[13] John P. Sullivan, Hal Kempfer, and Jamison Jo Medby, Understanding Consequences in Urban Operations, On Point, 2005. Available at http://www.riskintel.com/wp-content/uploads
/downloads/2011/07/Understanding-Consequences-in-Urban-Operations.pdf
[14] Eliot A. Cohen and John Gooch, Military Misfortunes: The Anatomy of Failure in War, New York: Free Press, 1990.
[15] Sullivan, Critical Pathways: Responding to the 1992 Los Angeles Riot.
[16] Crumley, ibid.
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Adam Elkus
Adam Elkus is a PhD student in Computational Social Science at George Mason University. He has published articles on defense, international security, and technology at Small
Wars Journal, CTOVision, The Atlantic, the West Point Combating Terrorism Centers Sentinel, and Foreign Policy.
Links:
{1} http://smallwarsjournal.com/author/john-p-sullivan
{2} http://smallwarsjournal.com/author/adam-elkus
{3} http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/london-riots-decentralized-intelligence-collection-and-analysis
{4} http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-12/how-riots-start-and-how-they-can-be-stopped-edward-glaeser.html
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{5} http://naxaliterage.com/
{6} http://kingsofwar.org.uk/2011/08/the-leviathans-new-clothes-information-and-power-relationships-by-jack-mcdonald/
{7} http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/08/09/the-riots-of-paris-and-london-a-tale-of-two-cities/
{8} http://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/sophie-body-gendrot/disorder-in-world-cities-comparing-britain-and-france
{9} http://www.riskintel.com/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2011/07/Understanding-Consequences-in-Urban-Operations.pdf
{10} http://smallwarsjournal.com/comment/reply/12276#comment-form
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