Stockton University

INVESTIGATING CHANGES IN LAND USE AND

POPULATION DYNAMICS IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY
Lab 1 Write Up

Brittany Moore
Environmental Issues
Emma Witt
9 October 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction . pg. 1
Background pg. 3
Methodology .. pg. 5
Results and Discussion .. pg. 6
Conclusion .. pg. 19
Works Cited .. pg. 20

TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1 pg. 1
Figure 2 pg. 2
Figure 3 pg. 6
Figure 4 pg. 6
Figure 5 pg. 7
Figure 6 pg. 8
Figure 7 pg. 9
Figure 8 pg. 10
Figure 9 pg. 11
Figure 10 . pg. 12
Figure 11 . pg. 14
Figure 12 . pg. 15
Figure 13 . pg. 17
Figure 14 . pg. 19

TABLE OF TABLES
Table 1 pg. 13
Table 2 pg. 14
Table 3 pg. 16
Table 4 pg. 18
Table 5 pg. 19

INTRODUCTION
New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the United States (Hasse, 2010). As of
July 1st, 2015, the Census Bureau estimates New Jerseys population as 8,958,013 persons with
land area equaling to 7,354.22 square miles (QuickFacts, n.d.). This leaves New Jersey with a
population of 1,210 persons per square mile, the most in the nation. Even as the the most
densely populated state, [urbanization] has continued unabated and in fact gained momentum
up through 2007 (Hasse, 2010). Population growth of NJ has steadily increased over the years;
from 1987 to 2007, the state saw a 14% population increase (Hasse, 2010). However, during
this same time period, the state experienced a twice as fast urban growth rate (26.8%) (Hasse,
2010). Changing land use in New Jersey has consisted mostly of urbanization. Urbanization is a
top environmental issue, leading to the loss of important land resources, including forested
area, agricultural lands, and wetlands (Hasse, 2010).

Figure 1, (Hasse, 2010)

Figure 2, Highlights the area of Cumberland County in New Jersey

Cumberland County, like the rest the world, has experienced a change in land use over
the past 25 years. Cumberland County is located in the southern central part of New Jersey. It
comprises of 320,000 acres of land (Agriculture, n.d.). Cumberland County is prided for their
successful agricultural practices. The county consists of 70,000 acres of farmland accounting
for nearly 20% of the entire state agricultural market value, producing the most in-state
vegetable, melons, and potatoes (Agriculture, n.d.). 13,000 acres of Cumberland County
farmland has been protected under the New Jersey Farmland Preservation Program, ensuring
future agriculture land use in the county. (Agriculture, n.d.).

BACKGOUND
Land-use change and population change has become a standard part of todays world.
Overall, we have seen a rapid increase in human population as well as an increase in land use
change over the past 25 years. These factors, however, have led to numerous environmental
issues on a global, national and state level.
Globally, 70 million people are added to the world every year (Foley 2009). This increase
in population has put a tremendous pressure on the worlds resources with a rising global
demand for urban centers, as well as agricultural and farmland products (Foley 2009). The
attempt to meet these demands has led to a change in the worlds landscape and has created
costly environmental impacts (Foley 2005). The acquisition of natural resources for human
needs has led to loss in biodiversity, change in atmospheric composition and possibly, the
global climate (Foley 2005).
On a national level, the United States ranks third as the most populous country in the
world with 87 persons per square mile (QuickFacts). It is considered a predominately rural
country with more than 80% of the land cover in the lower 48 states dominated by
shrub/scrub vegetation, grasslands, forests, and agriculture (National Climate, n.d.). The U.S.
has averaged about 0.33% change in land cover per year since 1973 (National Climate, n.d.).
Although this number seems small, it has accumulated to a 14% change in land use since 1973,
an area equivalent to the combined size of California and Oregon (National Climate, n.d.).
During this time, the United States has experienced a decrease in forest, wetlands, and
agriculture land, as well as an increase in developed area, grasslands, and disturbed land

(mechanically and non-mechanically) (National Climate, n.d.). Land use has played a critical role
in U.S. climate. An increase in developed land has led to higher air temperatures in the areas
affected. This is known as urban heat island effect (National Climate, n.d.). Urban heat islands
contribute to an increase in greenhouse gases, air and water pollution, and heat related illness
and mortality (Heat Island, n.d.).
On a state level, New Jersey is considered the most densely populated state in the
country. It has experienced an increase in urbanization doubled to its growth rate of population
(Hasse, 2010). Some researchers have generalized urban sprawl as development growth that
significantly exceeds population growth (Hasse, 2010). Urban sprawl has led to substantial loss
of important land resources in the Garden State, like agricultural lands, wetlands, and forest
lands (Hasse, 2010). Wetlands are important natural resources of New Jersey. They help
reduce the impacts from storm damage and flooding, maintain good water quality in rivers,
recharge groundwater, store carbon, help stabilize climatic conditions, and control pests (Why,
2013). Wetlands are also important sites for biodiversity providing habitat for endangered and
migratory species (Why, 2013).

METHODOLOGY
Preliminary land cover data was obtained from the National Land Cover Database
(http://www.mrlc.gov/nlcd2011.php). The data was analyzed using the program, ArcMap
10.4.1. Due to the vast number of features, we used the dissolve tool to group redundant
features based on land cover type. This procedure was used to create Figures 1-8. Area was
then calculated using the Calculate geometry tool, whereas land use percentage was
obtained. Population data was obtained from the US Census Bureau
(https://www.census.gov/popest/data/historical/index.html). Data analysis was further
completed using Excel and graphs.

RESULTS/DISCUSSION
*Preliminary data collected from the 2011 National Land Cover Database was badly skewed*

Figure 3

1992 LAND COVER PERCENTAGE

Cultivated Crops

Deciduous Forest

Developed High Intensity

Developed Low Intensity

Emergent Herbaceous Wetland

Evergreen Forest

Hay Pasture

Mixed Forest

Open Water

Woody Wetlands

Commercial/Industrial/Transportation

Bare Rock/ Sand Clay

Quarries

Transitional Barren

Urban/Recreational Grasses

1%6%
0%
1%
0%
5%1%
10%
1%
4%

29%

9%
6%
15%

12%

Figure 4

Figure 3 and 4 represents Land Cover Use of Cumberland County in 1992. In 1992,
Cumberland County had a high percentage of open water, mixed forest, and hay pasture. High
intensity development was at its lowest with only 0.5% land cover. Cultivated crops accounted
for 6% of land area and much of the area (35%) was blanketed with forest (deciduous: 10%,
evergreen: 6%, mixed: 15%, woody wetland: 4).

Figure 5

2001 LAND COVER PERCENTAGE

Barren Land

Cultivated Crops

Deciduous Forest

Developed High Intensity

Developed Low Intensity

Developed Medium Intensity

Developed Open Space

Emergent Herbaceous Wetland

Evergreen Forest

Hay Pasture

Herbaceous

Mixed Forest

Open Water

Shrub Scrub

Woody Wetlands

10%

30%
14%

13%
6%
3%
0%
2%

3%
1%
0%
1%
3%

3%

11%

Figure 6

Figure 5 and 6 represents Land Cover Use of Cumberland County in 2001. In 2001,
Cumberland County had a high percentage of barren land, developed open space, and shrub
scrub area. High intensity development double by 2001 with a 0.99% land cover. Forested area
decreased substantially and only accounted for 18% land cover in 2001 (deciduous: 2.6%,
evergreen: 2.75%, mixed: 2.7%, woody wetland: 10.4%).

Figure 7

2006 LAND COVER PERCENTAGE

Barren Land

Cultivated Crops

Deciduous Forest

Developed High Intensity

Developed Low Intensity

Developed Medium Intensity

Developed Open Space

Emergent Herbaceous Wetland

Evergreen Forest

Hay Pasture

Herbaceous

Mixed Forest

Open Water

Shrub Scrub

Woody Wetlands

14%

8%
8%
3%
1%
1%
1%

19%

14%

4%

17%
3% 0%3%

4%

Figure 8

Figure and 8 represents Land Cover Use of Cumberland County in 2006. In 2006,
Cumberland County had a high percentage of shrub scrub area, woody wetlands, and open
water. There was a large drop in barren land percentage (-21%). High intensity development
continued to increase and reached 1.5% of land use in 2006. 2006 also showed an increase in
medium intensity, low intensity, and open space development. Woody wetlands and cultivated
crops likewise experienced an increase in land cover from 2001 (3% and 2%, respectively).

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Figure 9

11

2011 LAND COVER PERCENTAGE

Barren Land

Cultivated Crops

Deciduous Forest

Developed High Intensity

Developed Low Intensity

Developed Medium Intensity

Developed Open Space

Emergent Herbaceous Wetland

Evergreen Forest

Hay Pasture

Herbaceous

Mixed Forest

Open Water

Shrub Scrub

Woody Wetlands

10%

30%
14%

12%

6%
3%
1%
2%
3%3%

3%
1%
0%
1%
11%

Figure 10

Figure 9 and 10 represents Land Cover Use of Cumberland County in 2011. In 2011,
Cumberland County had a high percentage of barren land, developed open space, and shrub
scrub area. Barren land sky rocketed back up to 29% of land cover. High intensity medium
intensity, low intensity, and open space development remained relatively constant.

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POPULATION CHANGE VS. LAND COVER CHANGE

*Preliminary data collected from the 2011 National Land Cover Database was badly skewed*
Table 1

160000
155000
150000
145000
140000
135000

Apr-10

7/1/2010

Jul-09

Jul-08

Jul-07

Jul-06

Jul-05

Jul-04

Jul-03

Jul-02

Jul-01

Jul-00

Apr-00

Jul-99

Jul-98

Jul-97

Jul-96

Jul-95

Jul-94

Jul-93

130000

Jul-92

Cumberland County Population

Cumberland County Population Change 1992-2010

Year
Cumberland County Population

Table 1 represents Cumberland County steady increase in human population from 1992 to
2010.

Figure 11 and table 2 represent land cover and population change from 1992 too 2001.
Change in land cover from 1992 to 2001 consisted of forests being converted to urban land,
barren land, agriculture land, and wetlands. Forested area was converted to accomadate for
the 3.19% increase in population to provide housing and agricultural needs.

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Figure 11
Table 2

Cumberland County Population Change 1992-2001

Cumberland County Population

147000
146000
145000
144000
143000
142000
141000
140000
139000
Jul-92 Jul-93 Jul-94 Jul-95 Jul-96 Jul-97 Jul-98 Jul-99 Apr-00 Jul-00 Jul-01

Year
Cumberland County Population

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Figure 12 and table 3 represent land cover and population change from 2001 to 2006. The
population of Cumberland County showed a 4.6% increase. Most of the county remained
unchanged or expierenced minimal change. The data from 2001-2006 makes little sense with
open water converting to developed areas.

Figure 12

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Table 3

Cumberland County Population Change 2001-2006

Cumberland County Population

154,000
152,000
150,000
148,000
146,000
144,000
142,000
Jul-01

Jul-02

Jul-03

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Year
Cumberland County Population

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Figure 13 and table 4 represent land cover and population change from 2001 to 2011. The
population of Cumberland County showed a 7.3% increase. Most of the county remained
unchanged or expierenced minimal change. It did experience a greater than 1% change in
developed open space to medium intensity developed area, deciduous forest to developed
open space, evergreen froest to grassland, and cultivated crops to developed open space.

Figure 13

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Table 4

Cumberland County Population Change 2001-2010

Cumberland County Population

158,000
156,000
154,000
152,000
150,000
148,000
146,000
144,000
142,000
140,000
Jul-01

Jul-03

Jul-05

Jul-07

Jul-09

7/1/2010

Year
Cumberland County Population

Figure 14 and table 5 represent land cover and population change from 2006 to 2011. The
population of Cumberland County showed a 2.5% increase. Most of the county remained
unchanged or expierenced minimal change. The only change greater than 1% included
deciduous forest to grassland.

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Figure14
Table 5

Cumberland County Population Change 2006-2010

Cumberland County Population

158,000
157,000
156,000

155,000
154,000
153,000
152,000
151,000
Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Apr-10

7/1/2010

Year
Cumberland County Population

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CONCLUSION
Current trends in land use change and population change do not seem likely to let up.
These increases will lead to a wide range of environmental problems on a local, state, national,
and global level. It is only a matter of time until the human population reaches its maximum
capacity. In order for any hope for the future generation we need to start investing in
sustainable agricultural solutions and living. Confronting the global environmental challenges
of land use will require assessing and managing inherent trade-offs between meeting
immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of ecosystems to provide goods and
services in the future (Foley, 2005).

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WORKS CITED
Agriculture in New Jersey and Cumberland County. (n.d.). Retrieved October 01, 2016, from
http://www.co.cumberland.nj.us/content/23751/23826/23842/default.aspx

Foley, J. A. (2005). Global Consequences of Land Use. Science, 309(5734), 570-574.

doi:10.1126/science.1111772

Foley, J. (2009, October 5). The Other Inconvenient Truth: The Crisis in Global Land Use.
Retrieved October 09, 2016, from
http://e360.yale.edu/feature/the_other_inconvenient_truth_the_crisis_in_global_land_use
/2196/

Hasse, J. E., & Lathrop, R. G. (2010, July 10). Changing Landscape in the Garden State: Urban
Growth and Open Space Loss in NJ 1986 thru 2007. Retrieved October 8, 2016, from
http://www.crssa.rutgers.edu/projects/lc/NJ_Urb_Growth_III_executive_summary_0801
_2010.pdf

Heat Island Effect. (n.d.). Retrieved October 08, 2016, from https://www.epa.gov/heat-islands

National Climate Assessment. (n.d.). Retrieved October 09, 2016, from

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/land-use-and-land-cover-change

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QuickFacts New Jersey. (n.d.). Retrieved October 08, 2016, from

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/34

QuickFacts UNITED STATES. (n.d.). Retrieved October 09, 2016, from

http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00

Why are wetlands important? (2013, March 18). Retrieved October 09, 2016, from
http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/wetlands/WhyAreWetlandsImportant.htm

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