Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Neuer Jungfernstieg 21, 20354 Hamburg, Germany
University of Innsbruck, Universittsstrae 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
University of Nottingham, School of Economics, University Park, Nottingham, NG7 2RD
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 9 December 2013
Received in revised form 25 April 2014
Accepted 23 July 2014
Available online 4 August 2014
Keywords:
Antisocial behavior
Conict
Resource scarcity
Competition
Lab-in-the-eld experiment
Namibia
Pastoralists
Commons
a b s t r a c t
This paper examines whether exposure to persistent resource scarcity on the commons affects pastoralists' readiness to engage in antisocial behavior towards their fellow commons users. The region under study is divided into
two areas according to exogenous variations in biomass production stemming from geological peculiarities. We
conducted a joy-of-destruction game with pastoralists from both areas and provide evidence for a positive relationship between antisocial behavior and long-term exposure to scarcity. Antisocial behavior among villagers
occurs twice as often in an area where resources are scarcer and competitive pressure is higher. Our results
remain robust to the inclusion of various controls, including beliefs, socio-demographics, absolute and relative income, and within-group inequality. If one interprets decreasing another participant's payoff below one's own as a
tendency towards conict behavior, our results suggest a higher risk of conict among resource users in areas of
greater scarcity.
2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Scarcity is a fundamental principle in economics. In a world of scarce
resources, human needs exceed the means, and scarcity conditions
human behavior. Scarcity may be conducive to social welfare as it provides incentives to allocate resources efciently. Yet, scarcity may also
encourage people to engage in antisocial activities that are detrimental
to overall welfare, such as theft or conict. So far, the relationship between resource scarcity and conict behavior has been mainly explored
at the macro level, with a strong focus on violent intra- and interstate
conict due to climate shocks (e.g. Burke et al., 2009; Homer-Dixon,
1999; Hsiang et al., 2013; Miguel et al., 2004; Zhang et al., 2007) and
to a lesser extent (and with mixed evidence) due to different resource
endowments (Brunnschweiler and Bulte, 2009; Collier and Hoefer,
1998). At the most basic level however, conict and other consequences
of scarcity originate from an individual's behavior. Also, the mechanisms through which scarcity spurs conict remain debatable. Most
studies argue that scarcity affects productivity and income as well as
income inequality (see references cited in Hsiang et al., 2013). Herein,
we experimentally investigate whether the long-term exposure to resource scarcity increases pastoralists' readiness to engage in antisocial
money-burning behavior, which can be interpreted as a tendency
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: sebastian.prediger@giga-hamburg.de (S. Prediger),
bjoern.vollan@uibk.ac.at (B. Vollan), benedikt.herrmann@gmail.com (B. Herrmann).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.07.007
0047-2727/ 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
towards conict behavior. Scarcity creates competition on the commonly managed grazing lands, and we conjecture that a greater exposure to
scarcity and competition can negatively affect resource users' dispositions towards others and reduce the inhibition threshold to engage in
antisocial acts.
Antisocial or spiteful preferences can be loosely dened as a desire to
harm others at a cost to oneself in the absence of motives of reciprocity.
Related experimental studies show that spiteful behavior is surprisingly
widespread (e.g. Abbink and Sadrieh, 2009; Cason et al., 2002; Fehr
et al., 2008; Herrmann et al., 2008; Herrmann and Orzen, 2008;
Kebede and Zizzo, 2011; Saijo, 1995; Zizzo and Oswald, 2001; Zizzo,
2003), suggesting that an exclusive focus on pro-sociality may come at
the cost of drawing an incomplete picture of human behavior. Reallife examples for antisocial behavior include violence against others,
vandalism and other forms of harmful conict behavior (Abbink and
Sadrieh, 2009). Yet, despite growing evidence for its existence, little is
known about the conditions under which antisocial attitudes are likely
to evolve.
A major challenge to addressing the link between scarcity and antisocial behavior is that an individual's propensity to inict damage on
others is difcult to observe. In natural contexts, often multiple motives
for harmful behavior exist that operate at the same time. This suggests
that an experimental approach is warranted, in which the conict
setting can be controlled and the impact of scarcity can be carefully separated from other potential motives that may evoke antisocial acts. In
order to elicit an individual's readiness to engage in antisocial behavior,
in-group in the aftermath of war in Georgia and Sierra Leone.3 The novelty of our study is the emphasis on long-term resource scarcity as a potentially important context factor shaping the formation of individual
attitudes. Specically, our results suggest that exposure to persistent
scarcity and competition (in the absence of intergroup conict) can
evoke individuals' propensity to engage in antisocial acts. Second, one
can interpret such spiteful money-burning as a potential tendency towards conict behavior. In this regard, our results are also informative
to research on the onset of conicts and violence.4 A number of macrostudies report a positive relationship between climate induced shocks
and the incidence of violent inter- and intragroup conicts (Burke et al.,
2009; Homer-Dixon, 1999; Miguel et al., 2004; Zhang et al., 2007), although there remain some doubts about the channels through which
this happens (Hsiang et al., 2013). We identify long-term exposure to
greater scarcity and competitive pressure as a source of individual conict
behavior. Lastly, our research is also relevant for the literature on
common-pool resource management. One strand of literature in this
eld has studied the link between resource scarcity and cooperativeness,
with mixed evidence. While some authors posit that collective action is
more likely to evolve under scarcity (see e.g. Ostrom et al., 1999), others
argue that scarcity may drive appropriate competition among users, leading to an ever fast rate of exhaustion (e.g. Grossman and Mendoza, 2003;
Varghese et al., 2013). We contribute to this literature by showing that
antisocial attitudes also need to be taken into account when exploring
the behavioral consequences of scarcity in commons management.
While scarcity may not necessarily undermine subjects' readiness to cooperate, it can negatively affect resource users' dispositions towards
others and evoke tendencies towards conict behavior.
The paper proceeds as follows: The next section provides background information about the study site. Section 3 describes the experimental setup and procedures. The results are presented in Section 4,
followed by a short conclusion in Section 5.
2. Description of the study site
Our study was carried out in the communal lands of the Berseba constituency in the Karas region of southern Namibia. This area is situated
within a semiarid biome and is almost exclusively populated by the
Nama people, an indigenous ethnic group that subsists on extensive
livestock production on commonly managed rangelands. Rainfall is
highly variable and erratic in that area, ranging from 50 to 290 mm
per annum (Kuiper and Meadows, 2002).
2.1. Measure for resource scarcity
We use geographically determined variations in biomass production
as a measure for cross-area differences in resource availability.
Figure A.1 in the supplementary appendix shows the estimated average
seasonal biomass production from 1985 to 2007 for the Karas region,
measured in kilograms per hectare.5 The biomass production varies spatially, ranging from less than 100 kg/ha up to 1200 kg/ha. The study region is split into two areas according to their biomass production: (1) a
high-yield area of 400 kg/ha up to 800 kg/ha and (2) a low-yield area of
below 100 kg/ha.6 According to own calculations based on ofcial
3
By contrast, Cassar et al. (2013) nd that exposure to civil war reinforces kinshipbased norms of morality among Tajiks, while it undermines trust within communities
and impersonal exchange.
4
Although conict behavior exhibited in our experimental setup is comparably harmless.
5
The map was produced by Celeste Espach of the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and
Forestry in Windhoek. The seasonal biomass production was calculated from NOAA/
AVHRR and SPOT/Vegetation satellite images, with the Satellite Monitoring of Arid Rangeland (SMAR) software based on the Monteith model.
6
In cases of prolonged droughts, biomass production can deviate from the average production reported in Figure A.1. Nevertheless, biomass production was always substantially
higher in the high-yield area than in the low-yield area during the last 23 years. Moreover,
in all but two seasons of serious drought (98/99 and 02/03), biomass production was well
above 400 kg/ha in the high-yield area and below 100 kg/ha in the low-yield area.
7
For the calculations, we used the enumeration areas in which the locations we considered in our study were situated and divided the enumeration areas' population by area
size. Visited locations in the high-yield area (low-yield area) are scattered across an area
of 4235 (3800) km2 supporting a population of 868 (811) people. We thank Thimo
Hangula from the National Planning Commission for providing us with the data. For consistency checks, we consulted the local extension ofcers Anton Losper (Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry (MAWF)), Karl Eiseb and Sixtus Isaacks (both Rural Water
Supply (RWS) Keetmanshoop) who operate in the study region. All of them guessed the
population density to be lower in the high-yield area.
8
Pers. com. with Anton Losper, extension ofcer from the MAWF (5th October 2009).
This is also in line with the perception of our participants, of whom 69% were of the opinion that quality is better in the Swartrand terrain than in the Witrand area; only 9% were of
the opposite opinion. The remainder thought there was no difference between the areas.
9
Of course, it happens that single members of a household temporarily move to bigger
settlements or towns, typically for schooling, or in order to look for a wage job. In the
econometric analysis in section 4, we hence control for the length of time individuals have
been staying in their place of residence.
Low-yield area
High-yield area
.1
.2
Fraction
.3
.4
.5
Fig. 1. Individual perceptions of pasture quality. Notes: The left-hand and right-hand side of Fig. 1 illustrates the distribution of individual perceptions about pasture quality for low-yield
area and high-yield area residents, respectively. N = 119.
Source: Authors' calculations.
grazing land and eventually sell some of their animals.10 Thus, neither can
newcomers start farming in the communal areas, nor can households
entitled to use a grazing land freely move their livestock to another location. Due to these features, we do not believe that selection bias through
intra- or inter-area migration is a major issue in our study.
13
Subjects were asked Do you want to pay one dollar to reduce your partner's income
by 5 dollars? In the following, however, we use the terms burn, destroy or reduce
interchangeably.
Table 1
Payoff table for the joy-of-destruction experiment.
Source: Authors' calculation.
Player A
Player B
Reduce
Not reduce
Reduce
Not reduce
4/4
5/9
9/5
10/10
yield area and comprised of 27 households).14 To minimize the confounding effects of cross talk in these two settlements, all sessions
took place the same day and participants were recruited immediately
before the start of the session.15 We invited one person per household
to participate. Where there were more than 6 households per location,
we randomly determined which households could send a member for
participation.
4. Results
Thirty-two percent of subjects decided to reduce their partner's
income, although this came at a cost to them. This clearly contradicts
the predictions of the homo economicus model, but it is in line with
results from related studies (e.g. Abbink and Sadrieh, 2009; Abbink
and Herrmann, 2011). In a repeatedly played joy-of-destruction game,
for example, Abbink and Sadrieh (2009) report destruction rates up to
40% among Dutch students. Money burning happened more frequently
in the low-yield area. There, 40% of all subjects diminished their
partner's income, compared to 23.3% in the high-yield area (Fisher's
exact test, p = 0.04, one-sided, n = 120).
Table 2 displays the results of linear probability regressions where
we regress subject's burning decision (y = 1 if subject burns money)
on area of residence, beliefs, absolute and relative income and further
covariates.16 In line with our hypothesis and descriptive results, we
nd a statistically signicant and economically sizeable difference between areas in the incidence of conict, i.e. antisocial money-burning
behavior. In the rst model of Table 2, the probability for destroying
money increases by 17 percentage points if the subject was from the
area of greater scarcity. The area effect remains signicant across all
specications.
Result 1: Harmful money-burning occurs signicantly more frequently in the low-yield area.
Unsurprisingly, we further nd individuals' beliefs about the other
player's behavior to have very strong predictive power for burning decisions: The probability of choosing to reduce another person's income increases by 66 percentage points if the subject expected him- or herself
to suffer a destruction of income. Most importantly, however, controlling for beliefs does not remove the signicant area difference on the
contrary, the area effect becomes bigger and more signicant. Twentysix percent of the sample had negative beliefs, and among them, 81%
reduced the other's income. This closely resembles the results of
Abbink and Herrmann (2011), who report that 86% of the money
burners had negative beliefs. In our sample, this kind of preemptive
retaliation occurs more frequently in the low-yield area. Of those
expecting to become victims of destruction, 93% destroyed money in
14
The frequency of burning decisions does not differ between livestock posts and settlements (Chi2 = 0.05, p = 0.9, n = 120), and hence does not seem to be a question of village
size.
15
Results from Chi-square tests provide no evidence of cross-talk or contagion effects in
Snyfontain (Chi2: 1.3, p = 0.51, n = 18) or Kutenhoas (Chi2 = 2.4, p = 0.49, n = 24).
16
We qualitatively obtain very similar results if we use probit models (see Table A.2 in
the Appendix). Note further that the statistical signicance of the area effect is larger in
the probit specications. This also applies to all robustness tests reported in the supplementary appendix.
Table 2
Determinants of individual money burning decisions.
Source: Authors' calculation.
(1)
Low-yield area
0.167**
(0.074)
(2)
0.178***
(0.057)
(3)
0.153**
(0.071)
(4)
0.193**
(0.089)
(5)
0.065
(0.095)
(6)
0.138*
(0.076)
(7)
0.145*
(0.078)
0.664***
(0.085)
Socio-demographics
Male
Age
Education
Farmer
Length of stay
0.675***
(0.087)
0.665***
(0.094)
0.012
(0.077)
0.000
(0.003)
0.006
(0.019)
0.063
(0.074)
0.053
(0.095)
0.020
(0.079)
0.001
(0.003)
0.007
(0.019)
0.059
(0.076)
0.056
(0.096)
0.030
(0.074)
0.001
(0.003)
0.011
(0.018)
0.085
(0.075)
0.277*
(0.148)
0.405**
(0.174)
0.0004*
(0.0002)
0.0003
(0.0002)
0.0004
(0.0004)
0.0003*
(0.0002)
0.668***
(0.089)
0.674***
(0.084)
0.009
(0.078)
0.001
(0.003)
0.004
(0.019)
0.074
(0.075)
0.051
(0.095)
0.233***
(0.043)
120
0.032
5.011
0.037
0.0239
0.056
(0.037)
120
0.423
93.97
0
0.413
0.016
(0.078)
0.001
(0.003)
0.005
(0.019)
0.078
(0.075)
0.064
(0.097)
0.010
(0.075)
0.000
(0.003)
0.003
(0.019)
0.034
(0.068)
0.047
(0.094)
0.0001
(0.0002)
0.0001
(0.0002)
0.0003
(0.0002)
0.0003
(0.0002)
0.021*
(0.012)
0.043
(0.038)
0.0003
(0.0002)
0.025
(0.018)
0.019
(0.022)
0.064
(0.092)
0.026
(0.019)
0.020
(0.022)
0.050
(0.083)
0.029
(0.019)
0.020
(0.020)
0.042
(0.095)
0.024
(0.018)
0.021
(0.022)
0.088
(0.093)
0.027
(0.019)
0.021
(0.022)
0.099
(0.094)
0.019
(0.019)
0.017
(0.021)
0.047
(0.099)
0.040
(0.056)
0.088
(0.109)
0.333
(0.268)
120
0.476
86.49
0
0.407
0.043
(0.054)
0.090
(0.111)
0.330
(0.271)
120
0.479
147.4
0
0.404
0.040
(0.055)
0.068
(0.104)
0.448
(0.276)
120
0.497
132.2
0
0.424
0.036
(0.060)
0.067
(0.106)
0.346
(0.267)
120
0.478
106.2
0
0.408
0.032
(0.060)
0.075
(0.108)
0.366
(0.280)
120
0.482
119.8
0
0.408
0.060
(0.070)
0.079
(0.109)
0.341
(0.289)
119
0.490
44.54
0
0.421
Social relationships
Number of friends
0.672***
(0.085)
0.206**
(0.080)
0.651***
(0.084)
0.0003
(0.0002)
0.027**
(0.010)
(8)
0.0002
(0.0002)
Notes: Linear probability models. Dependent variable: Burning decision in the JoD experiment (burn = 1, not burn = 0). The number of observations included in regression 8 deviates
from the actual sample size due to 1 missing values in Perception of poor pasture quality. Regression estimations are reported with heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors clustered
at session level (in parentheses). ***, **, and * indicates statistical signicance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively.
the low-yield area, compared to 69% in the high-yield area. When analyzing the behavior of subjects who did not expect their counterparts to
reduce their income, we nd that in the resource-scarce area 22%
burned money nevertheless, compared to 7% in the high-yield area.
We interpret such behavior as a clear indication of negative dispositions
towards fellow resource users. If including an interaction term between
negative beliefs and the area dummy in the regression analysis, we observe that this difference is signicant (t = 1.93, p = 0.06) between
areas (regression output not shown), conrming that negative dispositions are more prevalent among low-yield area residents.
We also account for the possibility that social relationships to other
group members may affect decision making. The negative signs of
number of friends and number of extended family member in estimations
3 through 8 suggest that the more friends and family members in the
same group, the lower the probability of destroying another group
member's money although the effects are not signicant at
17
We also gathered information about disputes at village level by asking participants
during a postgame group discussion whether there had been any unsolved conicts
among residents. This was abnegated in all sessions.
distribution (estimation 6). From this observation, we infer that positional concerns mattered indeed for the choice of money burning. Yet,
the coefcient of the area dummy remains signicant and decreases
from 17.7% (estimation 2) to 13.8% (estimation 6). Thus, only about
20% of the scarcity effect seems to be due to income and income inequality. Note further that we nd no evidence for interaction effects
between absolute herd size and low-yield area (estimation 4) and relative
herd size and the area dummy (estimation 7), suggesting that absolute
and relative income poverty have similar effects in both areas. Finally,
we account for the possibility that within group inequality (measured
by the standard deviation of herd size at group level) could affect
behavior. However, counter to our prior expectations, we do not observe a signicant correlation with money-burning behavior.
Apparently, herd size is a fairly good proxy for farmers' income, but
not for that of wageworkers and pensioners. For the latter two groups,
livestock production typically constitutes a secondary source of income.
As a robustness test, we thus run the same regressions as in Table 2 for a
sample restricted to farmers (n = 97, Table A.4 in the Appendix). When
doing so, it turns out that neither relative nor absolute herd size significantly impacts the probability of money burning, while farmers in more
unequal groups tend to be less likely to destroy their interaction
partner's experimental income. Since the area coefcient remains highly signicant if employing these controls, we infer that income poverty
or inequality alone do not explain the higher occurrence of moneyburning behavior among residents in the low-yield area.
Result 2: The higher incidence of antisocial behavior observed in the
area with greater scarcity is not caused by cross-area differences in inequality, absolute or relative poverty.
Finally, in estimation 8 of Table 2, we replace low-yield area with a
variable that captures individuals' perception about the quality of their
pasture. This variable is highly correlated with the area dummy ( =
.44, p b .001). It takes the value of 1 if the subject was of the opinion
that the pasture is of poor or very poor quality and 0 otherwise.
We observe a higher incidence of antisocial behavior (i.e., burning decisions) among those who had negative perceptions about the state of
their resource base. Separate regressions for each area reveal that this
tends to be the case for both areas (see Table A.5 in the Appendix). In
the high-yield area, only 6 out of 59 subjects were of the opinion that
their pastures are of poor or very poor quality. Among those 6 subjects, 3 decided to reduce their partner's income. In the low-yield area,
the majority (51.7%) assessed the quality as poor or very poor and
45% of them were willing to destroy money. These ndings provide suggestive evidence in favor of our claim that it is indeed the exposure to
resource scarcity that increases subjects' readiness to engage in conict
behavior, i.e. harmful money-burning behavior.
5. Concluding remarks
The world's natural resources are increasingly in short supply.
Climate change and population growth, among others, are likely to
exacerbate the problem of increasing scarcity in future. Given that the
ongoing depletion of natural resources constitutes a serious threat to
the livelihoods of millions of people especially in developing countries
(World Bank, 2009), a natural question is how scarcity shapes attitudes
and behavior of affected individuals. Herein, we tried to tackle this question by experimentally examining whether differences in long-term
exposure to resource scarcity on the commons affect Namibian pastoralists' readiness to engage in spiteful money-burning behavior. As a
measure for the degree of scarcity, we used exogenous variations in
average biomass production in the research region. These cross-area
differences in the availability of grazing resources stem from geological
peculiarities of the study site, which makes reverse causality highly
unlikely.
We report initial evidence for a strongly positive relationship between resource scarcity and spite in the absence of intergroup conict.
In the area where scarcity and competitive pressure are more prevalent,
almost twice as many subjects displayed a readiness to destroy their fellow resource users' income at a cost to themselves. We interpret this
form of harmful money-burning as an individual's tendency towards
conict behavior. Participants in our study share a similar political,
cultural, religious and societal background. Hence, it is very unlikely
that cross-area differences in behavior are driven by these or other
omitted factors. Surprisingly, the higher incidence of spite in the
resource-scarce area does not seem to be rooted in income poverty,
income inequality or other observable socioeconomic characteristics,
either. Although better-off participants tend to be less likely to diminish
another person's income, the area effect remains large and signicant
after employing controls for absolute and relative income in the econometric analysis. We further nd that subjects' perceptions about pasture
quality are highly and positively correlated with money burning decisions. Specically, those who perceive their pasture's quality as poor
were signicantly more likely to burn money than those who considered the quality to be good. We cannot entirely rule out that the
strong area effect we observe is due to some unobservable heterogeneity in other than exposure to scarcity and competition. However, the
evidence presented herein strongly suggests that it is indeed the greater
degree of scarcity and competitive pressure that makes people in the
low-yield area more likely to behave spitefully towards fellow resource
users.
Our results are in line with models in psychology (e.g. Jackson, 1993)
and social evolutionary biology (e.g. Lehmann et al., 2009). Evolutionary
models argue that harmful spite can be evolutionarily favorable, particularly in periods of scarcity and high competition, as it increases the
agent's tness relative to the harmed competitor. Furthermore, psychological research shows that persons selectively perceive those social
objectives that are most relevant to currently salient roles (McCall and
Simmons, 1978) and that scarcity alters the way in which people
allocate their attention, leading them to engage more deeply in some
problems while neglecting others (Shah et al., 2012). Related to our
research, it seems that people who are exposed to a higher degree of
scarcity (i.e. live in a more competitive environment), and who therefore need to try harder to sustain their livelihood, are more inclined to
perceive their interaction partner as a competitor against whom they
have to prevail. This perception may result in a neglect of efciency
concerns and a stronger desire to come out ahead or to harm others.
A natural question to ask is how adequately experimental play reects participants' real attitudes. With the data at hand, we are not
able to answer this question. However, there are several studies demonstrating the external validity of experimental behavior (e.g. Benz and
Meier, 2008; Carpenter and Seki, 2011; Fehr and Leibbrandt, 2011;
Rustagi et al., 2010). Rustagi et al. (2010), for example, show that
Ethiopian forest user groups with a larger share of conditional cooperators (as measured in public goods experiments) are more successful in
forest management. Similarly, Fehr and Leibbrandt (2011) nd that
Brazilian shermen who exhibit more cooperative behavior in a laboratory experiment are less likely to exploit common-pool resources. So
far, evidence on the external validity of laboratory preference measures
is restricted to the prosocial domain of human decision making. Investigating whether external validity applies to the antisocial domain as
well, remains an important and interesting avenue for future research.
Our results suggest that long-term exposure to scarcity and competition on the commons can lower resource users' inhibition threshold to
engage in harmful behavior. We observe such tendencies in an experimental setting that allows people to destroy a fellow resource users'
(experimental) income without taking the risk of being detected and
sanctioned. In real-life, however, formal and informal institutions may
prevent such tendencies towards conict behavior. The results of our
study allow for some cautious policy implications. If competition drives
spiteful behavior and if the occurrence of spite is positively correlated
with conict in real life, policies should aim at efcient resource use
and at providing outside options to people, thereby reducing dependence from the limited resources at place. Presumably the most efcient
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